Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
My last thing on OBJ, that I believe gives some credence to playing him.....
Norman doesnt usual shadow. around 20% of OBJ routes come in the slot, where norman doesnt play.
Carolina was finally hit with the injury bug....this game really doesnt mean much to them with a cake schedule the rest of the way.....yeah the perfect season narrative is there, but ask the Pats how that turned out....but if you've been fading Carolina this year you might as well burn your money on fire....
Carolina has scored 25+ in every single game this year, so if that holds, OBJ will have plenty of targets....you would assume, in a potential shootout.
Norman doesnt usual shadow. around 20% of OBJ routes come in the slot, where norman doesnt play.
Carolina was finally hit with the injury bug....this game really doesnt mean much to them with a cake schedule the rest of the way.....yeah the perfect season narrative is there, but ask the Pats how that turned out....but if you've been fading Carolina this year you might as well burn your money on fire....
Carolina has scored 25+ in every single game this year, so if that holds, OBJ will have plenty of targets....you would assume, in a potential shootout.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
its def a gamble especially with Vjax out, but i hate the matchup......
G
Gyno
Guest
Doing some Sefrain Jenkins over 37.5 yards.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Minnesota/Chicago
Line is -6/43
As I've stated, I believe Adrian Peterson is a great play in this matchup. Chicago ranks dead last against the run per DVOA. Adrians success against Chicago was listed in this thread. Zach Miller is a interesting play at TE, Vikes ranks 24th in DVOA against the TE. Miller has at least 5 targets in 5/6 games, scoring 4 TDS in the time frame, his usage has gone up since Bennett was dinged up and eventually out. In games that Alshon Jeffrey has been healthy, he's had at least 9 targets, with many 10+ targets. He's on the injury report again this week, with a calf injury. I can see people reading this and getting off him a little bit. Vikings have moved Terrence Newman to Safety with Harris Smith's injury, so Jeffrey should get a majority of his work against Trae Waynes, who has struggled all year. Jeffrey's price also went up on DK, which I always think is a good sign moving forward.
I have AP in cash and in GPP. Miller in just GPP, and have sprinkled in some Jeffrey in GPP.
Line is -6/43
As I've stated, I believe Adrian Peterson is a great play in this matchup. Chicago ranks dead last against the run per DVOA. Adrians success against Chicago was listed in this thread. Zach Miller is a interesting play at TE, Vikes ranks 24th in DVOA against the TE. Miller has at least 5 targets in 5/6 games, scoring 4 TDS in the time frame, his usage has gone up since Bennett was dinged up and eventually out. In games that Alshon Jeffrey has been healthy, he's had at least 9 targets, with many 10+ targets. He's on the injury report again this week, with a calf injury. I can see people reading this and getting off him a little bit. Vikings have moved Terrence Newman to Safety with Harris Smith's injury, so Jeffrey should get a majority of his work against Trae Waynes, who has struggled all year. Jeffrey's price also went up on DK, which I always think is a good sign moving forward.
I have AP in cash and in GPP. Miller in just GPP, and have sprinkled in some Jeffrey in GPP.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Atlanta/Jacksonville
-3/48
Denard Robinson
When Drob has had more than 14 carries in his two years playing here are his stats.
22/127/1
18/108
17/94/1
16/50/2
14/25
14/75/1
Drob, crushes at over 5 ypc. Going against a defense that gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to RBS this year, and ATL ranks 24th in rushing DVOA.
Allen Robinson has scored a TD or had 100 yards in a game in 9/10 weeks.
Allen Hurns
Julius Thomas 2nd highest targeted player in the RZ for the Jags, since he's come back from injury. Has scored a TD in 4 straight games, and has targets of 10/7/5/8. His role has increased immensely. Atlanta's starting safety got injured for the year last week, so that opens up the middle even more. Atlanta ranks in the bottom half in fantasy points allowed to TE, and in TE defense DVOA.
Here is my issue with all of these guys. There's more options for Blake Bortles in this offense, then when Fondy pulls up to a buffet line.
Speaking of Blake Bortles.
You know who ranks right behind, Tom Brady and Carson Palmer in TD thrown this year? Big Bens little brother Blake Bortles. He has at least 30 attempts in every game but 1 this year, and multiple TD games in 10/13 games. Atlanta ranks 24th in DVOA against the Pass, as well as 3rd in Fantasy Points allowed to QBS.
I think your best route is to play Bortles naked, in a likely shootout. with so many options to pass to, you don't want to be on Robinson if Thomas goes off, and vice versa.....best way to get exposure through this offense is through Bortles. Not to mention when they get into the RZ they pass more than any other team in the NFL, which hurts DROB.
I think Freeman is a great play, I think Julio Jones is also a great play. Jacksonville ranks 25th or worst in every DVOA defensive statistic. With that said, Matt Ryan who has been terrible has too feed these guys. Ryan is a great GPP play that will be low owned, with a ton of upside in a game that predicts to be a shootout.
-3/48
Denard Robinson
When Drob has had more than 14 carries in his two years playing here are his stats.
22/127/1
18/108
17/94/1
16/50/2
14/25
14/75/1
Drob, crushes at over 5 ypc. Going against a defense that gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to RBS this year, and ATL ranks 24th in rushing DVOA.
Allen Robinson has scored a TD or had 100 yards in a game in 9/10 weeks.
Allen Hurns
Julius Thomas 2nd highest targeted player in the RZ for the Jags, since he's come back from injury. Has scored a TD in 4 straight games, and has targets of 10/7/5/8. His role has increased immensely. Atlanta's starting safety got injured for the year last week, so that opens up the middle even more. Atlanta ranks in the bottom half in fantasy points allowed to TE, and in TE defense DVOA.
Here is my issue with all of these guys. There's more options for Blake Bortles in this offense, then when Fondy pulls up to a buffet line.
Speaking of Blake Bortles.
You know who ranks right behind, Tom Brady and Carson Palmer in TD thrown this year? Big Bens little brother Blake Bortles. He has at least 30 attempts in every game but 1 this year, and multiple TD games in 10/13 games. Atlanta ranks 24th in DVOA against the Pass, as well as 3rd in Fantasy Points allowed to QBS.
I think your best route is to play Bortles naked, in a likely shootout. with so many options to pass to, you don't want to be on Robinson if Thomas goes off, and vice versa.....best way to get exposure through this offense is through Bortles. Not to mention when they get into the RZ they pass more than any other team in the NFL, which hurts DROB.
I think Freeman is a great play, I think Julio Jones is also a great play. Jacksonville ranks 25th or worst in every DVOA defensive statistic. With that said, Matt Ryan who has been terrible has too feed these guys. Ryan is a great GPP play that will be low owned, with a ton of upside in a game that predicts to be a shootout.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Carolina/NYG
4/48
I've discussed the OBJ/Josh Norman narrative in this thread. One thing I haven't touched on is Norman hasn't shadowed this year. So if the Giants want to be smart, put OBJ in the slot and he at least gets a "easier" matchup. Dewayne Harris is dinged up and is Q to play. Reuben Randle could be in play this week, if OBJ is blanketed....but Carolina's #2 CB, is still damn good.
Carolina has scored 27+ in every game since week 3. With Olsen dinged up and no J-Stew....you have to look at guys like Ginn/Funchess/Cam. Giants defense Iis terrribbllleee... This game will not be looked at that hard with all of the other "high scoring"games out there. The running game concerns me....Jstew didn't get the goal line carries....those went to Tolbert. Whittaker will likely split carries with Cameron Artis Payne.
This game continues to baffle me. Carolina should ball out on paper...Giants have played up/down to their competition level.
4/48
I've discussed the OBJ/Josh Norman narrative in this thread. One thing I haven't touched on is Norman hasn't shadowed this year. So if the Giants want to be smart, put OBJ in the slot and he at least gets a "easier" matchup. Dewayne Harris is dinged up and is Q to play. Reuben Randle could be in play this week, if OBJ is blanketed....but Carolina's #2 CB, is still damn good.
Carolina has scored 27+ in every game since week 3. With Olsen dinged up and no J-Stew....you have to look at guys like Ginn/Funchess/Cam. Giants defense Iis terrribbllleee... This game will not be looked at that hard with all of the other "high scoring"games out there. The running game concerns me....Jstew didn't get the goal line carries....those went to Tolbert. Whittaker will likely split carries with Cameron Artis Payne.
This game continues to baffle me. Carolina should ball out on paper...Giants have played up/down to their competition level.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
NE/Tennessee
Over the last 3 years when the Pats have been DD favorites (6) times, they've scored more than 23 points once.
Patriots only have 2 RBs on the active roster (bolden/White) Bolden got the in between the 20's carries last week, and white got the touches in the RZ. Bolden has never been given the opportunity for the bell cow of the carries. BB loves him though, he's survived the RB cuts over the last few years because he's an incredible special teams player. I think Bolden gets the opportunity at least 15 carries, and should catch another 2-3 balls out of the backfield. At this price, its almost impossible to not play him, and not get value out of him.
Brandon Lafell has at least 6 targets in every game he's played. Tennessee ranks dead last against #3 receivers in the NFL. At his price, he has a really low floor, but his ceiling could be pretty damn good. Sneaky GPP play, that could be in a few lineups.
No one on Tennessee gets any run from me. NE game plans to take away the #1 option, so Delanie Walker should be shutout.
Over the last 3 years when the Pats have been DD favorites (6) times, they've scored more than 23 points once.
Patriots only have 2 RBs on the active roster (bolden/White) Bolden got the in between the 20's carries last week, and white got the touches in the RZ. Bolden has never been given the opportunity for the bell cow of the carries. BB loves him though, he's survived the RB cuts over the last few years because he's an incredible special teams player. I think Bolden gets the opportunity at least 15 carries, and should catch another 2-3 balls out of the backfield. At this price, its almost impossible to not play him, and not get value out of him.
Brandon Lafell has at least 6 targets in every game he's played. Tennessee ranks dead last against #3 receivers in the NFL. At his price, he has a really low floor, but his ceiling could be pretty damn good. Sneaky GPP play, that could be in a few lineups.
No one on Tennessee gets any run from me. NE game plans to take away the #1 option, so Delanie Walker should be shutout.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Green Bay/Oakland
4/48
One of my favorite plays of the week is Randall Cobb not alot of stats against Oaklands defense. They rank in the middle of the NFL against the pass, and against #1WR, but they do give up the 2nd most Fantasy Points to WR. The one thing I like, is Mike McCarthy took over the play calling last week. Cobb saw 12 targets, and ran the ball 3 times. His price is cheap, and I think people will over look him because of "other" options in his price range. The Total suggest this game could be a shootout. Mack could be giving Rodgers fits, and he may need to find his safety valve (Cobb) alot.
Richard Rodgers
interesting play this week. He has 7 TDs this year, and Rodgers looks for him the RZ. He has had at least 4 targets in 5/6 games. Eddie Lacy has had 100 yards rushing 3/4 games, but...that was against MIN/CHI/Dallas, all 3 teams suck against the run. Oaklands run defense isn't bad, so I'd be surprised if Rodgers didnt finish with 4/40/1 which brings back value.
Derek Carr
@ Home
353/3
249/1
333/4
302/2
283/2
Cooper has at least 9 targets in every home game this year except 1. Packers have been excellent against #2 WRs, but rank in the bottom half against #1 WR. Sam Shields the packers best CB is out for this game. No one is talking about Cooper at all this week, because he put up a dud last week..... In a shootout, I think he eats.
4/48
One of my favorite plays of the week is Randall Cobb not alot of stats against Oaklands defense. They rank in the middle of the NFL against the pass, and against #1WR, but they do give up the 2nd most Fantasy Points to WR. The one thing I like, is Mike McCarthy took over the play calling last week. Cobb saw 12 targets, and ran the ball 3 times. His price is cheap, and I think people will over look him because of "other" options in his price range. The Total suggest this game could be a shootout. Mack could be giving Rodgers fits, and he may need to find his safety valve (Cobb) alot.
Richard Rodgers
interesting play this week. He has 7 TDs this year, and Rodgers looks for him the RZ. He has had at least 4 targets in 5/6 games. Eddie Lacy has had 100 yards rushing 3/4 games, but...that was against MIN/CHI/Dallas, all 3 teams suck against the run. Oaklands run defense isn't bad, so I'd be surprised if Rodgers didnt finish with 4/40/1 which brings back value.
Derek Carr
@ Home
353/3
249/1
333/4
302/2
283/2
Cooper has at least 9 targets in every home game this year except 1. Packers have been excellent against #2 WRs, but rank in the bottom half against #1 WR. Sam Shields the packers best CB is out for this game. No one is talking about Cooper at all this week, because he put up a dud last week..... In a shootout, I think he eats.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Seattle/Cleveland
I CAN'T TELL YOU REGRESSION IS COMING EVEN IF I BELIEVE ITS COMING BECAUSE THEY'RE PLAYING THE FUCKING BROWNS.
For real though Russ, Baldwin, Lockett all in play.
No reason to give stats.
Barnidge is a interesting play for me, Seattle ranks 28th against TE this year. W/O Benjamin or Hartline, Johnny Football has to throw to someone. Cleveland's TT is lower than the spread on the game, which implies Cleveland being down big, and having to throw. Barnidge has at least 8 targets in every game this year since week 4. Like I said, he's the only guy they have to throw to.
I CAN'T TELL YOU REGRESSION IS COMING EVEN IF I BELIEVE ITS COMING BECAUSE THEY'RE PLAYING THE FUCKING BROWNS.
For real though Russ, Baldwin, Lockett all in play.
No reason to give stats.
Barnidge is a interesting play for me, Seattle ranks 28th against TE this year. W/O Benjamin or Hartline, Johnny Football has to throw to someone. Cleveland's TT is lower than the spread on the game, which implies Cleveland being down big, and having to throw. Barnidge has at least 8 targets in every game this year since week 4. Like I said, he's the only guy they have to throw to.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Miami/SD
RIVERS, GATES, INNMAN, FLOYD, GORDON
I've talked about Rivers in this thread already. He's my favorite tournament play there is. I texted my buddy that I'm loading up on Rivers stacks, "he said I don't have the heart to do it" Look, you win alot of money by rostering "perceived" bad teams in great spots. The weeks I've had my most success is by not following the chalky plays. Here is some narrative for you as well, could be the last game ever in SD. Rivers/Gates have played their entire careers here...they likely want to go out with a bang. Miami is going cross country on a short week, after losing a game in primetime.....find it hard to believe how they get up for this game. Rivers has actually beat up on bad defenses this year, and I believe he eats here...after a few terrible weeks.
SD passes on over 60% of their plays, and Miami's pass defense is NO with Rob Ryan bad.
Lamar Miller
there isnt a RB more efficient than Miller in the NFL.....the problem is the Dolphins are stupid. A running back that is averaging 5.1 ypc has only received more than 20 carries ONCE this year. SD RANKS 31st against the run this year. On the road this year, he's had over 50 yards rushing ONCE. Against similar defenses to SD, he has lines off 19/113/1 (Tenn-25th DVOArush), 14/175/1 (Houston 20th rush DVOA) 20/115/1 (BAL 9th DVOA rush)
Like i said Miami is stupid....there has been a lot of chatter this week about getting him going.
Great risk/reward play, that should be low owned.
RIVERS, GATES, INNMAN, FLOYD, GORDON
I've talked about Rivers in this thread already. He's my favorite tournament play there is. I texted my buddy that I'm loading up on Rivers stacks, "he said I don't have the heart to do it" Look, you win alot of money by rostering "perceived" bad teams in great spots. The weeks I've had my most success is by not following the chalky plays. Here is some narrative for you as well, could be the last game ever in SD. Rivers/Gates have played their entire careers here...they likely want to go out with a bang. Miami is going cross country on a short week, after losing a game in primetime.....find it hard to believe how they get up for this game. Rivers has actually beat up on bad defenses this year, and I believe he eats here...after a few terrible weeks.
SD passes on over 60% of their plays, and Miami's pass defense is NO with Rob Ryan bad.
Lamar Miller
there isnt a RB more efficient than Miller in the NFL.....the problem is the Dolphins are stupid. A running back that is averaging 5.1 ypc has only received more than 20 carries ONCE this year. SD RANKS 31st against the run this year. On the road this year, he's had over 50 yards rushing ONCE. Against similar defenses to SD, he has lines off 19/113/1 (Tenn-25th DVOArush), 14/175/1 (Houston 20th rush DVOA) 20/115/1 (BAL 9th DVOA rush)
Like i said Miami is stupid....there has been a lot of chatter this week about getting him going.
Great risk/reward play, that should be low owned.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Arizona/Philly
Everyone from Arizona is in play. Philly gives up #3 most points allowed to QBS, and #2 points allowed to WR. That has a lot to do with Philly's pace of play....they have the most offensive plays played against their defense.
Fitz
Has torched Philly for years!!!
5/93/1
5/65/2
7/146/2
9/114/1
5/72/1
7/160/1
9/152/3
Let that sink in.
Everyone from Arizona is in play. Philly gives up #3 most points allowed to QBS, and #2 points allowed to WR. That has a lot to do with Philly's pace of play....they have the most offensive plays played against their defense.
Fitz
Has torched Philly for years!!!
5/93/1
5/65/2
7/146/2
9/114/1
5/72/1
7/160/1
9/152/3
Let that sink in.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Now that I've gotten back up from my chair.
Everyone is passing up Fitz this week, for Michael Floyd his last 5 starts
4/106/1
7/113/2
1/14
7/104
5/109/1
Now lets look at John Browns stats the last 4 games
3/43/1
5/99
6/113
4/78/1
John Brown is the most efficient WR in this league according to Pro Football Focus.
Lets not forget about this dude
David Johnson
Out of 102 total touches this year, he's scored on 8 of them, thats a little less than 10%. He's a dynamic player that is just as good as a receiver as he is a RB.
He's had 24 total touches in each of the last 2 games, with a stat line off 48/240 yards/1TD.
Last week against Minnesota, he should have had 2 TDs, he was tackled on a TD run right at the goaline, and stupidly went out of bounds at the 1 from scoring another.
You can make a hell of a argument to roster all of these players. So naturally, you should likely roster Carson Palmer in all formats. He's a lock for at least 25/40/325/3
Everyone is passing up Fitz this week, for Michael Floyd his last 5 starts
4/106/1
7/113/2
1/14
7/104
5/109/1
Now lets look at John Browns stats the last 4 games
3/43/1
5/99
6/113
4/78/1
John Brown is the most efficient WR in this league according to Pro Football Focus.
Lets not forget about this dude
David Johnson
Out of 102 total touches this year, he's scored on 8 of them, thats a little less than 10%. He's a dynamic player that is just as good as a receiver as he is a RB.
He's had 24 total touches in each of the last 2 games, with a stat line off 48/240 yards/1TD.
Last week against Minnesota, he should have had 2 TDs, he was tackled on a TD run right at the goaline, and stupidly went out of bounds at the 1 from scoring another.
You can make a hell of a argument to roster all of these players. So naturally, you should likely roster Carson Palmer in all formats. He's a lock for at least 25/40/325/3
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Detroit/NO
A lot people seem to be on Detroit over NO here.....Let me ask you a question, who do you trust more Stafford or Drew Bree's at home. Look Statstically there isn't a worse team defensively then the Saints across the board.
Drew Brees, lowest ouput at home this year is 255 yards
His home splits this year.
178/2100/17
thats an average of over 300 yards/2.5 tds.
I trust Brees more in a matchup that could eclipse 100 points in a game. Stafford can throw up a clunker though.
I don't think you can argue against starting anyone on either team.
Watson is probably my favorite play. I like him the most, because Snead/Cooks will see alot of Darius Slay, who is one of the best CBs in the NFL. Megatron is slotted to go against Brandon Browner, one the worst CBS this year according to PFF. Tate has been sexy lately, but he's going to be covered by Breaux....who has been dominant this year.
A lot people seem to be on Detroit over NO here.....Let me ask you a question, who do you trust more Stafford or Drew Bree's at home. Look Statstically there isn't a worse team defensively then the Saints across the board.
Drew Brees, lowest ouput at home this year is 255 yards
His home splits this year.
178/2100/17
thats an average of over 300 yards/2.5 tds.
I trust Brees more in a matchup that could eclipse 100 points in a game. Stafford can throw up a clunker though.
I don't think you can argue against starting anyone on either team.
Watson is probably my favorite play. I like him the most, because Snead/Cooks will see alot of Darius Slay, who is one of the best CBs in the NFL. Megatron is slotted to go against Brandon Browner, one the worst CBS this year according to PFF. Tate has been sexy lately, but he's going to be covered by Breaux....who has been dominant this year.
Gordon gekko
Pretty much a regular
Mario, who's your QB, I'm in 5th with 3 weeks remaining, 25 team league in Draftkings..trailing by 59 pts from leaders.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Palmer is the absolute safest bet.
Brees i think is next
Safe Upside
Brady
Bortles
Risky, but worth it
Rivers
Carr
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
At FD i think Tolbert is a viable play...because its more TD dependent...
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Why are you so low on Tyrod? I hadn't really thought about him as a play because the Bills broke my heart last week. Clay out hurts the offense in many ways but he is a solid run blocker. Karlos status is still up in the air, but McCoy to me is risky this week. Now I'm starting to look at wr #s vs the Redskins and I think Watkins is getting into my lineups this week.
ODB 9-142-1 td
Cooks 5-98-2 td
Alshon 6-107-1
Evans 8-164-1
Marshall 7-111-1
Watkins is a top tier wr, and without Clay he will be getting 12+ targets. Woods is the only other reliable wr in the passing game, and may get you 80 and a td with him. Sammy @ 7200 on FD and you can count on around 100 & a td with potential to explode is a no brainer for me.
Redskins could have success with Matt Jones and he's pretty cheap, though tough to play because of time share... Either rb gets through the D-Line and they are getting 20+. No Preston Brown and the secondary decimated for Buffalo, Reed is an obvious play for this week though I'm sure he will get a ton of attention and he is kind of feast or famine this season.
Zeke
Big Dick and Average Size Boat
Thought/question on Calvin going against PI Browner. When a flag is thrown on the D for PI (or holding) does anyone get the receiving yards added to their stats? Twink was bitching about Browner last week & he was incredibly penalty ridden last year on NE. If his matchup gets the yards on his penalties, could be a good strategy to play against him, like always.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
I saw those WASH numbers early this week..... My only issue is Tyrod, doesn't seem to target him enough. Obviously with Clay being out, that takes 5-7 targets and gives them to someone else.
Woods is a sneaky good play... I've put him in a few lineups.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
don't think you get the penalty yards in any format.
triceratops
Pretty much a regular
If I were taking props this week, Julio and cobb all 3 categories over
G
Gyno
Guest
Cam Newton was $$$$ this week. I recovered all the dough lost last week.
Zeke
Big Dick and Average Size Boat
Bad move #1. Bad move #2 was AP in all my lineups and #3 was having Matt Ryan in any of my lineups.
G
Gyno
Guest
Had AP in two of my lineups for playoffs. He screwed me.
