Fade material Top Picks - Aug/Sept

[dylanphan]

In an attempt to drive traffic to the best forum on the webs, I will attempt to diligently track my picks here for a few months. And if all goes well, and my inbox is filled with love, maybe beyond.

Now, each day I can have 5, 10, 100 plays in action. And there is just NFW I have the time, ability or want to post every play. So, instead, I've decided to monitor each of my top picks for the day. Each pick will be either a single (small), double (medium) or triple (LARGE) unit bet. I will grade the bets based on line at the time I made my bet, and by unit size, and see how my top picks work out.

In the past, these have been an unmitigated disaster, thus FADE MATERIAL. So, expect more of the same. In my experience, the larger the pick, the greater the chance of losing miserably. I seem to do great on my trixies, parlays, long shots, but don't post those. So take out of this thread what you like. I fully encourage mockery, shenanigans and tom foolery, with the occasional atta boys mixed in :shake:

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

Al Wasl (UAE)/Al Jazira (UAE) Over 3,3½ -116* (1.16 to make 1)

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

Add:
PSG (FRA-1)/Montpellier (FRA-1) Over 2,2½ -115* (1.15 to make 1)

 

[dylanphan]

Typical solid day
0-2-1 (-1.73)

be back tomorrow for some more losers.

 

[Spartaneers]

best of luck man

 

[dylanphan]

Early games:
FC Ilves (FIN-V)/RoPS (FIN-V) Over 2½ +102 (1 to win 1.02)
Wolfsburg (GER-1)/Koln (GER-1) Over 2½ -127 (1.27 to win 1)

:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

Another solid 0-2
0-4-1 (-4.00)

 

[dylanphan]

Let's go with this for tonight
DC United (CONCACAF-CL) -2 -140* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Montego Bay United (CONCACAF-CL) 2.80 to win 2.00

Should be a sure fire loser, wouldn't surprise me if Jamaican side wins outright :cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

Also Pachuca playing tonight. They are one of my favorite over teams. Only thing is they are coming off a REALLY tough loss Sunday to Puebla where they were up 2-0 and lost 3-2. Watched most of that game, Puebla were better, but not sure how that game will effect them.

 

[dylanphan]

1-4-1 (-2.00)
That's right, we're off the schneid here. Gonna have a play on this one today
Hoffenheim II (GER-Reg)/SpVgg Neckarelz (GER-Reg) Over 2½ -124 (1.24 to make 1.00)

:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

adding:
Kickers Offenbach (GER-Reg) -1 -115* vs Wormatia Worms (GER-Reg) (1.15 to make 1)

:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

Adding:
European Cup Soccer 52 Bayer Leverkusen (UCL) -½,-1 -134* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Lazio (UCL) (2.68 to win 2.00)

:cheeers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

4-4-2 (+2.00)
:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

Adding:
Zacatepec (MEX-Copa)/Toluca (MEX-Copa) Over 2½ -137 (1.37 to make 1.00)

And in honor of our fallen comrade Hugh613 Ottawa Fury o2.5 for funsies.

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

5-4-2 (+3.00)

Adding:
UANL Tigres (CONCACAF-CL)/Herediano (CONCACAF-CL) Over 2 -133 (1.33 to make 1.00)

Live road dog in this one, should lead to an open game. I think worst case we get a push here. Wouldn't surprise me to see Tigres win outright
:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

5-4-3 (+3.00)
Bah, got the early road goal, then a second before ht, then the dodgy red card. Cost us a win.

 

[dylanphan]

5-4-3 (+3.00)
Bah, got the early road goal, then a second before ht, then the dodgy red card. Cost us a win.

 

[dylanphan]

ugh, got a meeting, but a quick play for now Draw on the Kairat/Bourdeaux match (1.00 to make 2.10)
+210

 

[dylanphan]

Big day today, I can feel some losers coming
5-5-3 (+2.00)

Going with this one in a bit: :cheers3: :cheers3:
[FONT=source_sans_pro]Parnu Linnameeskond vs Jalgpallikool Tammeka[/FONT]
[FONT=source_sans_pro]Over 3.0 (-130) [/FONT]

 

[dylanphan]

Sorry, that bet above should be 2.60 to make 2.00

I had a big long post about it too, but the long and the short of it is Linnameeskond home games averaging 4gpg, Tammeka Tartu away games averaging almost 5gpg.....well, it looks like we may get 3 goals in this one to me.

 

[dylanphan]

ugh, so much for the big day. I managed to pick the one Estonian match without goals, and then work buried me :hang:
5-6-3 (-0.60)

Going to start off on the early game and play:
Arsenal (ENG-P)/Newcastle (ENG-P) Over 2½,3 +102 (1.50 to make 1.53)

Only thing holding me back from making this a bigger play is it's the early game (and the fact my over confident Estonian play crashed down in flames hurt the pysche a bit).
To me, this game just screams goals. Something like 35 in the last 9 between these two. Arsenal have been a touch snake bit the beginning of the league as they are getting a ton of chances, and just not enough goals. Newcastle has certainly been better defensively, but just lat year at home, their games averaged nearly 2.8 gpg.
Generally speaking, I prefer to back Arsenal at home - as in my eyes they seemingly are more confident and offensive at home. However, with the poor start, I think you can expect Arsenal to step on the gas here and aim for a result. I believe they will find a willing opponent, one not content to just sit back and defend in front of their home supporters. I think both teams will score, and I think the odds are strong enough here that we can get 3-4-5 goals in this one.
:cheers3:

 

[guaranteeed]

gl tomorrow dylan

 

[casual]

GL today Dylan

 

[dylanphan]

Adding:

Eintracht Frankfurt (GER-1)/VfB Stuttgart (GER-1) 1st Half Over 1,1½ -103 (1.03 to make 1.00)

:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

Adding:

Mattersburg (AUT-B)/Rapid Vienna (AUT-B) Over 3 -141 (1.41 to make 1.00)
Tottenham (ENG-P) +110* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Everton (ENG-P) (1.00 to make 1.10)

:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

8-8-3 (-1.10)

Parlaying Inter Milan (-139) with o2.5 in Toluca/Club Leon (-134) today. Pays 2/1. Risk 1.00 to win 2.00

:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

Adding:
San Jose (BOL)/The Strongest (BOL) Over 2½,3 -139 (1.39 to make 1.00)

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

Adding:
Jaguares De Chiapas (MEX)/Guadalaraja Chivas (MEX) 1st Half Over 1 +117 (1.00 to win 1.17)
:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

10-9-3 (+0.68)
bah, 2 goals by Bolivia in the 1h and nothing in the 2h coulda made for a nice day today. Oh well.

 

[dylanphan]

One for today so far:
Emirates (UAE-Cup)/Al Ahli Dubai (UAE-Cup) Over 2½ -153 (1.53 to make 1.00)

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

10-10-3 (-0.85)

Internationals are almost always great for some losers.
I'll take a poke with Wales today at +121 (1.00 to win 1.21)

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

11-10-3 (+0.36)

Adding:
FBC Melgar (PER)* -1 -141 (2.82 to make 2.00)

 

[dylanphan]

12-10-3 (+2.36)

Al Wasl (UAE-Cup)/Al Nasr (UAE-Cup) Over 3 +112 (1.00 to win 1.12)
Scotland (EURO-Qual) +109 (1.00 to win 1.09)

:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

12-12-3 (+0.36) puke

Swindon (ENG-One)/Crewe (ENG-One) Over 2½ -120 (2.40 to win 2.00)

 

[hugh613]

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

adding:
USA MLS Soccer 507 Toronto (USA-MLS)/Seattle (USA-MLS) Over 2½,3 +113 (2.00 to make 2.26)
:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

14-12-4 (+3.49)

101 Netherlands (EURO-Qual)/Turkey (EURO-Qual) Over 2½ +122* (1.00 to make 1.22)
107 Czech Republic (EURO-Qual) -1 +104* vs Latvia (1.00 to make 1.04)

:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

15-12-5 (+4.51)

Belen (CRC-1) pk,-½ +114* vs Uruguay de Coronado (CRC-1) (1.00 to make 1.14)
USA MLS Soccer 451 Dallas (USA-MLS)/Columbus (USA-MLS) Over 2½,3 -116* (1.16 to make 1.00)

:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

16-13-7 (+4.59)

Al Wahda (UAE-Cup)/Dabba Al Fujairah (UAE-Cup) Over 3,3½ +110 (1.00 to make 1.10)

:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

17-13-7 (+5.69)

adding
Germany (EURO-Qual) for Game -130 (1.30 to win 1.00) ht bet.

 

[dylanphan]

18-13-7 (+6.69)

9/8 lets go with this one:
Viking (ClubFriendly) +237* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Aberdeen (ClubFriendly) (1.00 to make 2.37)

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

Adding one more

Switzerland (EURO-Qual)/England (EURO-Qual) Over 2,2½ +102 (1.00 to make 1.02)

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

shit day yesterday (18-15-8 +5.19)

gonna try this one OHiggins (CHI-Cup)/Univ De Concepcion (CHI-Cup) Over 3 -108 (2.16 to make 2.00)

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

19-15-8 (+7.19)

adding
Blooming (BOL)/Bolivar (BOL) Over 3 -130 (1.30 to make 1.00)
this is a borderline big play, but I am going to play it as a single unit as I have a bunch of losing baseball bets to place out still

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

Glad I didn't make that Bolivia pick large (cause it lost, duh), but that game had no business not getting to 3. I'll be on Bolivar again soon on overs.

19-16-8 (+5.89)

let's getting things rolling today with Dinamo Zagreb (CRO-1)/Lokomotiva Zagreb (CRO-1) Over 2½,3 -135 (2.70 to make 2.00)

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

Adding:

Hamburg (GER-1)/Borussia Monchengladbach (GER-1) 1st Half Over 1 -125 (1.25 to make 1.00)
Perugia (ITA-B)/Pescara (ITA-B) Over 2 -135 (1.35 to make 1.00)

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

adding:

LASK Linz (AUT-E)/Kapfenberger SV (AUT-E) Over 2½ -108 (2.16 to make 2.00)

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

that'll work
23-16-8 (+11.89)

One more for tonight:

Monarcas Morelia (MEX)/Queretaro (MEX) Over 2½,3 +117 (1.00 to make 1.17)

:cheers3:

 

[dylanphan]

23-17-8 (+10.89)


Mainz 05 (GER-1)/Schalke 04 (GER-1) 1st Half Over 1 -130 (2.60 to make 2.00)
Stabaek (NOR-T)/Rosenborg (NOR-T) Over 3 -144 (2.88 to make 2.00)

:cheers3: :cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

23-17-8 (+10.89)

:claphands: