Extremely Strong Wager Goes Tonight (2* Play)

[Gorgolon Lives]

Boston Celtics +11

Let's first mention the line movement. This one opened at 12 and was pounded last night. Line is 10.5 or 11 at most places right now. The early line movement is wise movement IMO. No way square money is being put on Boston to cover in Detroit. So, right off the bat, we know we are on a smart money play. Detroit in home games this year is only 8-14 ATS. If we take a look at Boston's road games in this string of consecutive losses, we see the following:

At Orlando (Lost by 9) ATS loss by 1.5pts
At Detroit (Lost by 8) ATS win
At Atlanta (Lost by 4) ATS win
At Washington (Lost by 5) ATS win
At Toronto (Lost by 6) ATS win
At Indiana (Lost by 7) ATS win

We see Boston has not yet lost by double digits on the road in this 14 game losing streak. Moreover, they are 5-1 ATS on the road in this stretch. Not to mention, a majority of those road games were against very strong home teams. My thought on this is Boston is very young and might feel more pressure in front of home fans.

For Detroit, they are off a BIG upset road win in Cleveland. In 2 days, they face Kobe and the Lakers. This is a classic sandwich situation.

My hunch is that Boston wins this straight up. As for the cover, I feel this game should be decided in the final minute. Anything 10 or higher, I feel is a very strong wager.

GL! :cheers:

 

[DuY!]

gl

 

[brewer]

on it as well ( 1 unit )

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Thanks...Whos got balls for a ML play??? I do, but my book doesn't have ML's over 10+ points.

I'll probably be on the Portland/Suns 1H, but I won't know til' the line movement before the game. I'll be posting 2H plays in a seperate thread. GL to everyone tonight!

 

[Bkzfinest80]

My book has +500 for the ML but i am having a real hard time seeing them win in Detroit...Played it safe and took the 11....BOL

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Yea, BK. Just a hunch that they win. I can't really provide any #'s to back up a SU win. My whole take is that the game should be close and Detroit shouldn't win by DD tonight. That's really all that matters!

 

[Satyr]

GL Believe :cheers:

 

[FrankyTheHook]

Lets get em

 

[euchre_robot]

nice hit man bost outscores them by 15 in the 4th

ill take it

 

[3gamblers]

nice hit and analysis on boston

 

[super_cody]

gotta love that back door cover, didn't think we were going to get it for a second. good game.

 

[Retburj13]

nice hit

as expected det lost interest and celts walked right thru open back door