European Hockey, Oct 5th...




charvik

charvik

NHL Road Fade Guru
Finland:

Assat/SaiPa

2 teams that has struggled early in the season. Assat hasn't scored a lot at home and SaiPa hasn't scored much away. Considering their opponents in those games though, it's not surprising, and both teams have a better trend then what is visible from a pure stats standpoint. The odds makers are keeping the Finnish games locked in at 5.5 goals for the totals, and this game has a chance of going over. I think it's too close though, as I can easily see 2-3, 3-2 or 3-3 in this game. Pass.

HPK/Blues

A decent home team against a good road team so far. HPK is letting far fewer shots through on home ice, but both teams play very close to their opponents. Another game that could go either way, as I see this as a close contest. Slight lean on Blues +0.5, but not enough to play it.

Ilves/Lukko

When looking at the home/away splits for these two it seems that Lukko is scoring a bunch on the road, and letting quite a few pucks past them too, but that stat is severely sqewed thanks to two road games vs SaiPa and KalPa (two of the worst defensive teams in the league). Ilves likes to slow things down and grind out wins, so I have a feeling this will be close. I am playing this under.

Ilves/Lukko UNDER 5.5 -110

Jokerit/Tappara

Jokerit now has 2 losses in a row, after opening up the season undefeated through 7 (?) rounds. They even had an uncharacteristic loss at home last time out and it's time for them to turn things around. Tappara played today against KalPa, and while that's not exactly a power house, they still struggled. I'm surprised at seeing "only" -0.5 on Jokerit here, with Tappara playing back to back days.

Jokerit -0.5 -117

more to come...
 
more Finland...

JYP/Pelicans

JYP is a good home team, that plays slower on home ice and grind things out. They have had some issues scoring, but that seems to be better now. Both myself and Santa were quite high on the Pelicans to start the season, and they have really shown that they are to be counted with this year. Pelicans have scored a ton more now that their lines have started to find each other. It's a tough game at a pk, but Pelicans gets + money, so it's worth a play.

Pelicans pk +108

Karpat/HIFK

Two very good teams, that have started the year very well. This should be a hard, physical game as it always is between these two, and I expect plenty of penalty minutes on both sides. I think this game will sail over the number early.

Karpat/HIFK OVER 5.5 -117

TPS/KalPa

KalPa is playing back to back days here and had a rough game against Tappara today, where they fought back from 2 goals down. KalPa normally struggles to score on the road, and now they will be tired too to top that off. TPS is struggling, period. They are not really scoring a lot, even though the last couple of games have been against better opponents. With the fatigue factor, I am staying away from the UNDER, because I think this might get out of hand for KalPa late, but the puckline looks decent.

TPS -1.5 +101

That's it for Finland, Sweden to follow...
 
Sweden

Timra/Linkoping

Timra is the best team in the league right now, and has yet to lose a game. They have been even better at home, only allowing 3 scores so far, and now Linkoping is coming to town. A team that is struggling some offensively and has been a general dissappointment away from home. It's hard for me to not play Timra in this situation, especially at + $.

Timra -0.5 +116

Brynas/Mora

Brynas played a VERY solid game away at Lulea in the last round, winning 4-0. Very impressive! They have been really solid defensively at home too and their fast lines has given them a lot of pressure on the opponents. They have lacked some in finishing though, scoring around 3 goals per game, but I think that changes this round against Mora. Mora plays a different style of hockey away from home, and I expect to see a lot of scoring chances. Brynas should win, but I think the OVER is a better play.

Brynas/Mora OVER 5.5 -105

HV 71/Djurgarden

HV 71 has struggled to start the year, and let through tons of goals early. When they got rid of Langkow things started to turn around for them, an dthey are playing a lot better. Djurgarden is struggling to win away from home. I don't think the line is playable here, but would lean HV -0.5 and OVER.

more to come...
 
Sweden continued...

Malmo/Frolunda

Frolunda is not in a good place right now. The team has been horrible lately, and all parts of the team are malfunctioning. They did play a lot better last round though, scoring 6, and they are facing another cold team in Malmo. Two bottom half teams, with weird trends. I'll pass.

Skelleftea/Farjestad

Bottom half team vs top half. One was considered a cellar dweller, and has surprised, and one the top team to beat, but has disappointed. With Skelleftea missing key players, and Farjestad not playing up to their standard I am laying off this one too.

Lulea/MoDo

Lulea experienced what it's like to play without Rehnberg against Brynas. They are just not the same team without him. MoDo is up and down, and it's hard to play them on the road, but considering how they have played in the last 4 games I think I can still back them here, even though it's a tough spot. I get a half goal too, and that's always welcome.

MoDo +0.5 -126
 
Recap:

Finland:
Ilves/Lukko UNDER 5.5 -110
Jokerit -0.5 -117
Pelicans pk +108
Karpat/HIFK OVER 5.5 -117
TPS -1.5 +101

Sweden:
Timra -0.5 +116
Brynas/Mora OVER 5.5 -105
MoDo +0.5 -126

That's it for the other side of the pond!

:cheers:
 
Going to be a good hockey day today! I have a full slate of Finnish and Swedish hockey at work, and then a full slate of NHL at home. :wacka wacka:

I'll post my NHL plays shortly...:cheers:
 
meant to get a thread going for this, but I'll jsut throw it here

Played JOkerit -0.5
HIFK over
Lukko under

:cheers:
 
Ilves/Lukko UNDER 5.5 -110
Jokerit -0.5 -117
Pelicans pk +108
Karpat/HIFK OVER 5.5 -117
TPS -1.5 +101

First intermission:
Ilves-Lukko 0-1
Jokerit-Tappara 0-0
JYP-Pelicans 0-0
Karpat-HIFK 4-0 (actually 4 mins left to the break)
TPS-KalPa 2-0

:wacka wacka:
 
LOL, HIFK has had 3 penalties for 36 mins in the 1st period! Keep em in the box! :wacka wacka:
 
:wacka wacka: HIFK has stayed out of the box so far, but Karpat still added a goal! 5-0 and one more to go!
 
Ilves - Lukko, still 1 goal half way into the game
Pelicans has a 1-0 lead
TPS is up 4-0 now
Jokerit is up 2-1

:drink:
 
LOL! just as I typed that HIFK has two quick scores... 7 goals in the game and waaay over after 25 mins of play!

money;
 
Scores at the start of the 3rd...

Ilves-Lukko 0-1
Jokerit-Tappara 3-1
JYP-Pelicans 1-1
Karpat-HIFK 7-2
TPS-KalPa 5-0

Looking decent so far...
 
Ilves/Lukko UNDER 5.5 -110 WIN
Jokerit -0.5 -117 WIN
Pelicans pk +108 PUSH
Karpat/HIFK OVER 5.5 -117 WIN
TPS -1.5 +101 WIN
4-0-1, +4.01


Finnish Sides 8-3-4
Finnish Totals 8-8
Swedish Sides 6-5-1
Swedish Totals 3-2
SWE/FIN YTD 25-18-5, 5.97 units

NHL Sides 1-0
NHL Totals 1-0
NHL Salami 1-0
NHL YTD 3-0, 3.02 units

money;
 
On to Sweden... the games are at the 1st intermission:

Timra -0.5 +116
Brynas/Mora OVER 5.5 -105
MoDo +0.5 -126

Brynas - Mora 1-1
Lulea - MoDo 0-1
Timra - Linkoping 1-1

The games are just starting the 2nd period...
 
Lulea 4-1 :down:

I need Timra to win this to avoid a sweep... *sigh* awful result after the nice start in Finland...
 
meh... 1-2 in Sweden... still 5-2-1 in Euro hockey...

Timra -0.5 +116 WIN
Brynas/Mora OVER 5.5 -105 LOSS
MoDo +0.5 -126 LOSS
1-2, -1.15

Finnish Sides 8-3-4
Finnish Totals 8-8
Swedish Sides 7-6-1
Swedish Totals 3-3
SWE/FIN YTD 26-20-5, 4.82 units

NHL Sides 1-0
NHL Totals 1-0
NHL Salami 1-0
NHL YTD 3-0, 3.02 units
 
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