Euro 21

[KJ]

GL today teed, liking the over more and more in the first one

 

[gsro]

Gl teed

 

[guaranteeed]

England -1 -130

 

[guaranteeed]

Italy to qualify -140

 

[GWarner27]

England -1 -130

when you get a minute i'd love your opinion on juice in this sport. Buying to 1 seems to make sense all the time if it's a reasonable price (-130 or lower fits for me), but i have real trouble deciding what to do with 1/4 1/2 3/4

 

[guaranteeed]

when you get a minute i'd love your opinion on juice in this sport. Buying to 1 seems to make sense all the time if it's a reasonable price (-130 or lower fits for me), but i have real trouble deciding what to do with 1/4 1/2 3/4

I usually buy to 1 if it's around where you mention at -130, I'd go up to -150 depending on the situation, type of game etc. Cant remember last time I played a .25 or .75 line either way. My feeling has always been the pushes in a generally lower scoring sport outweigh the lower risk with the quarter lines overtime.

If you're taking a team that's -1 with some juice they are likely to be in the -250 to -300 range on the moneyline, which implied odds put at around 72-75%.

 

[GWarner27]

I usually buy to 1 if it's around where you mention at -130, I'd go up to -150 depending on the situation, type of game etc. Cant remember last time I played a .25 or .75 line either way. My feeling has always been the pushes in a generally lower scoring sport outweigh the lower risk with the quarter lines overtime.

If you're taking a team that's -1 with some juice they are likely to be in the -250 to -300 range on the moneyline, which implied odds put at around 72-75%.

how about this, albeit from the dog side. Gurv only complimented my math without telling me i'm an idiot (that's what i want)

well i'm trying to do the math on it, but don't have that level of analysis in my being

It's obvious to me that -110 you must win 53% to profit slightly, +100 only 50.01% and -120 54.6%

What i struggle to work out is with 0.5 +105 vs 0.75 -120

How worth it is it to lose by a single goal and only lose 1/2 of your stake (i am betting everything risk 1.1x to win XXX in this sport) vs losing your full stake on a single goal loss? Winning 1.1x *1.05 = 1.16x when you win vs 1.1x *1/1.2 = 0.92x

Scenarios

	0.75	0.5
NED 2-0	-1.1	-1.1
NED 1-0	-0.55	-1.1
0-0	0.92	1.16

So you're trading 0.55x on a single-goal loss for 0.24x less when you win. This goes against my thesis of making bets on coinflips at or above even money and trying to pick up those pennies on each transaction thus being +EV over time, but it seems to make sense even despite the higher required win rate to be profitable

 

[guaranteeed]

how about this, albeit from the dog side. Gurv only complimented my math without telling me i'm an idiot (that's what i want)

I'll look at the math a bit more later, because I do think it would make sense to find out what percentage of games you would need to lose by exactly 1 goal, in that example of a +0.5 or a 0.75, with the extra 0.24u it's clear. but to continually do it would need to set parameters or some kind of system where the price decided which way to go. I've just treated it more as key numbers so far like the other football with 3s and 7s, this one being the 0.5 and 1s.

 

[guaranteeed]

It is interesting to think about for sure

 

[guaranteeed]

For wednesday

England -140

 

[GWarner27]

I'll look at the math a bit more later, because I do think it would make sense to find out what percentage of games you would need to lose by exactly 1 goal, in that example of a +0.5 or a 0.75, with the extra 0.24u it's clear. but to continually do it would need to set parameters or some kind of system where the price decided which way to go. I've just treated it more as key numbers so far like the other football with 3s and 7s, this one being the 0.5 and 1s.

please do!