Euro 2008 Thread #2 (Tuesday- On)

C

CapTwo

Richmond Local TV Legend
7-0 so far in Euro 2008. Its been a very good Euro.
Both of the dogs hittin at +0.5 and one winning SU both at + money was nice.

Unfortunately I lost my ass ($500 ish) in bases last night in 2 brutal brutal one run games. jays game was fun since putz juiced the bases in 10th (w/ no out). no runs to show for it. so sad. we move on.

So today. I only have one big pick, and one small one. Gotta pick winners, just cant go out on any limbs today.
My main pick holds a lot of juice, but I think weve got a winner.

Under 2.5 (-190) Greeks/Swedes
$181.25/95.39

Spain -1 (+131)
$50/65.50

Under 1.5 (+122) Greeks/Swedes
$50/61

GL Fellas.....I would be surprised if the greece game even has more then 1 goal scored in it the way greece plays. I just cant chance shit.
Otto has an excellent defense, plays a 4-4-1-1, anchored in the middle by the tall and powerful Dellas.
Nikopolidis is 36 but he was GK of the tourney in 2004.... so the experience is certainly there.

Greece looks to get it done with defense and catch opposition on the counter attack for that one winning strike. Their style of play will help this one go under.
 
Last edited:
yes I got an excellent line on the under.

like I explained yesterday though, VIP puts out an overnight line around midnight ish and then just leaves it up till 10 AM. NO adjusting.
So you get a great window if theres a lot of movement overnight/in the morning.

This line is -222 on 5D right now, so I sure as hell aint layin that chalk.

But for the record, Ill even post it once. Ill only do this once, lol this aint blankets. But its a good FYI anyways....always throw some change on a book like VIP that is slow on adjusting lines, vs a book like 5D, which has very low vig. GL

<table style="border: thin solid rgb(204, 0, 0);" }="" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="altrow"><td colspan="6" class="header" nowrap="nowrap">Pending Wagers</td></tr><tr class="row"><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap" width="10%">ID/Date</td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap" width="58%">Description</td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap" width="8%">Type</td><td colspan="2" class="header" nowrap="nowrap" width="16%">Result</td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap" width="8%">Pending</td></tr><tr class="altrow"><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap">Credit</td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap">Debit</td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap"> </td></tr><tr class="row"><td class="border" nowrap="nowrap">#15336459

06/10/2008 14:45</td><td class="border" nowrap="nowrap">SOC Point Total Under 2.5(-190)
Greece vs Sweden
Euro 2008 - Matches
Greece vs Sweden
$ 181.25 wagered to win $ 95.39 at 06/10/2008 06:06</td><td class="border" nowrap="nowrap">COMMITTED</td><td class="border" nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td class="border" nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td class="border" nowrap="nowrap">$ 181.25</td></tr><tr class="altrow"><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap">$ 0.00</td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap">$ 0.00</td><td class="header" nowrap="nowrap">$ 181.25</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
I don´t think you have to post your ticket, Cap.

We believe you, we are just jealous, that´s all. :) Gl today.
 
lol, it was just a one time only thing. figured id do it once.

because once 10 AM hits, that baby is going to hit -230 or -240

:)

still 4 more hours till the action starts!!! argh. i hate waiting, but im excited
. spain game should be an entertaining one to watch
 
-222 at the moment in Pinny and Bet365...

I agree, waiting for the start of the action is a bitch. Having to work at the same time makes it even worse, lol.
 
Cap you should look at the under 1.5 goal option for a bit more value if you are prepared to take on the extra risk
 
My book has Spain -.5 (+110). Liking that a bit. The Greece under looks nice but at -200? No way.

Not to rehash yesterday's ITA/NET game but I talked to a friend about the non offsides call 1st goal. There was a new rule passed this year that if the player is out of bounds he is still part of the field. In this case the ITA defender was outside the touch line therefore no offsides should have been called. The call was the right one. At first I didn't know the rule so I assumed ITA got screwed. Tough break though for ITA backers. On to today.
 
From BBC:

"(...)But what looked a desperately poor decision was, in fact, a brilliant piece of officiating, according to the chairman of Austria's refereeing commission Gerhard Kapl and Premier League referees' chief Keith Hackett.

Both said Van Nistelrooy was played onside by Italy's Christian Panucci, who had been injured seconds earlier and was lying behind the goal when the Dutch striker scored.

Kapl said the goal was "100% correct, without any doubt", quoting article 11.4.1. of the refereeing code that states "an opposing player cannot be offside when one of the last two defenders has left the field of play" - as in the case of Panucci.

Hackett added: "I have listened to the commentators criticising the first Holland goal stating that Van Nistelrooy was offside.
Christian Panucci went off through contact with his own goalkeeper Buffon.
"He is still considered part of the game.

"The fact is the assistant was correct. The defender who slid off the field is still regarded as active."
 
wow, we learn something new every day, definitely didnt know about that rule change.... and not sure if i like it, either. why should that player count as the last defender if theyre not on the field of play?

and why did smyth and company not say anything about it during the game? did they not know either? very interesting stuff though guys. didnt know that.
good stuff Against and panos.....

Roddy- Im looking at adding one play...... its either going to be under 1.5 or the draw. both present some good value. I know its a lot of chalk on the 2.5 but Im trying to get back on the right foot after getting shelled in bases.

against- are you sure youre not talking about spain -1?
spain -0.5 is juiced everywhere.... -150 and above...

if my book had -0.5 at +110 it would be my biggest wager of the tourney. that would be a gift from the books.

90 minutes and counting fellas!!!!! GL!
 
CapNumberTwo said:
wow, we learn something new every day, definitely didnt know about that rule change.... and not sure if i like it, either. why should that player count as the last defender if theyre not on the field of play?

and why did smyth and company not say anything about it during the game? did they not know either? very interesting stuff though guys. didnt know that.
good stuff Against and panos.....

Roddy- Im looking at adding one play...... its either going to be under 1.5 or the draw. both present some good value. I know its a lot of chalk on the 2.5 but Im trying to get back on the right foot after getting shelled in bases.

against- are you sure youre not talking about spain -1?
spain -0.5 is juiced everywhere.... -150 and above...

if my book had -0.5 at +110 it would be my biggest wager of the tourney. that would be a gift from the books.

90 minutes and counting fellas!!!!! GL!
Click to expand...

Positive dude. Check it out. I almost fell over when I saw my lines this morning.

<TABLE class=InitialTable style="BORDER-RIGHT: gray 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: gray 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: gray 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: gray 1px solid; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD noWrap bgColor=blue>Jun/10/2008</TD><TD noWrap>277</TD><TD noWrap>EURO 2008 MAX WAGER $1000</TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap>SOCCER</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD noWrap>02:45 PM</TD><TD noWrap>278</TD><TD noWrap>90 MINUTE REGULATION ONLY</TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle><TR bgColor=#c7ddc8><TD noWrap> </TD><TD noWrap>287</TD><TD noWrap>SPAIN VS RUSSIA / SPAIN -0.5 GOAL</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=amount maxLength=5 size=3 name=G32207;1;ML>+110 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap>SOCCER</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#c7ddc8><TD noWrap>11:59 AM</TD><TD noWrap>288</TD><TD noWrap>SPAIN VS RUSSIA / RUSSIA +0.5 GOAL</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=amount maxLength=5 size=3 name=G32207;2;ML>-140 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD noWrap> </TD><TD noWrap>289</TD><TD noWrap>SPAIN VS RUSSIA OVER 2.5 GOALS</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=amount maxLength=5 size=3 name=G32230;1;ML>+150 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap>SOCCER</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD noWrap>11:59 AM</TD><TD noWrap>290</TD><TD noWrap>SPAIN VS RUSSIA UNDER 2.5 GOALS</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=amount maxLength=5 size=3 name=G32230;2;ML>-180 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle><TR bgColor=#c7ddc8><TD noWrap> </TD><TD noWrap>291</TD><TD noWrap>SWEDEN VS GREECE / SWEDEN -0.5 GOALS</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=amount maxLength=5 size=3 name=G32231;1;ML>+140 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap>SOCCER</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#c7ddc8><TD noWrap>02:45 PM</TD><TD noWrap>292</TD><TD noWrap>SWEDEN VS GREECE / GREECE +0.5 GOALS</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=amount maxLength=5 size=3 name=G32231;2;ML>-170 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD noWrap> </TD><TD noWrap>293</TD><TD noWrap>SWEDEN VS GREECE OVER 2.5 GOALS</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=amount maxLength=5 size=3 name=G32232;1;ML>+160 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap>SOCCER</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD noWrap>02:45 PM</TD><TD noWrap>294</TD><TD noWrap>SWEDEN VS GREECE / UNDER 2.5 GOALS</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=amount maxLength=5 size=3 name=G32232;2;ML>-200 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
My gut is telling me to blast Spain -.5 but the unpredictability of this team is what is scaring me off. I will most likely be on Spain but medium wager. I also like the over 2.5 as well. I have no clue about the 2nd game but leaning Greece at 1st glance. I can see a 1-1 or 0-0 draw in the Greece game. Ibrahimovic is not 100% which makes this game a tough call. He is their main guy and we just don't know how he is physically.
 
what the hell???!?!?!?!

what book is that????

holy shit man.... compare that with 5D which has pretty low vig...(posted b elow)

spain definitely deserves some coin....especially with the arshavin suspension.
if it wasnt for the injury to Pogrebnyak and arshavin suspension for game 1, i think russia could have made a lot more noise then theyre actually going to. hiddink has proven he knows how to win....
but i would definitely throw some coin on spain at that line!!

<table class="module" rgfloat="440,600" border="0" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="800"><tbody><tr style="height: 28px;" bgcolor="#f6f6f6" valign="bottom"><td nowrap="nowrap">Russia (UEFA)</td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="radiox" value="S1_0" name="radiox" language="javascript" onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type="radio">+½ +138 </td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="radiox" value="M1_0" name="radiox" language="javascript" onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type="radio">+530 </td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="radiox" value="L1_0" name="radiox" language="javascript" onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type="radio">Over 2½ +149 </td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="radiox" value="E1_0" name="radiox" language="javascript" onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type="radio">Over ½ -109 </td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="radiox" value="E3_0" name="radiox" language="javascript" onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type="radio">Under ½ -111 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#f6f6f6" valign="middle"><td nowrap="nowrap">12:00PM (EST) </td><td nowrap="nowrap">866</td><td nowrap="nowrap">Spain (UEFA)</td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="radiox" value="S2_0" name="radiox" language="javascript" onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type="radio">-½ -158</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
It's my local but he has an online site. Sometimes I get crap lines in other sports and sometimes I get good lines. This seems like a solid line to me. Russia has a great keeper but I do agree that those two players make a big difference. I just hope that this isn't the type of game where the rest of the Russian team plays out of their mind since their stars aren't playing. Spain is the X factor. Spain does has a great defense and since Russia will be lacking the firepower, Spain will probably be my play based on that.
 
:shake:

I dont know how russia's going to be able to score at all with those 2 out.

Pretty much spain at + money in this spot is an auto-play.... you gotta take a shot at least for a normal sized wager.

GL on em, obviously ill be rootin for em too:cheers:

adding under 1.5 myself, rod makes a good point, and some good value there.
 
AHhhhhh there it is!

I bet he meant to put that one in for the -1.... and fucked up.

That SOB... tell him you demand even money or better or your taking business elsewhere!

(kidding, i dont know how it is with a local, wish I had one.
very hard to find being in VA)
 
HAHA. Right now I have Spain -.5 (-155), over 2.5 +150, under 2.5 -180. At first I liked the over but I didn't realize Russia's scorers were out. May take the under here instead. I get this feeling that Russia knows they are going to have problems today and may just sit back and play for a draw. That is why I am hesitant to play Spain even though on paper Spain should win. Russia does have a good coach in Hiddink too.
 
9-1 so far 1st round.....

sometimes the best wagers, are the ones you DONT make.
so, im going to do the smart thing and sit today out....couple of reasons why.

(although i do lean to portugal -0.5, and under 2 in game 1. game 2, weak lean to switz -0.5 and over 2)

simply put-

-portugal and czech are in the weakest group. both won game1, and can pretty much coast on to the first round with bum assed switzerland and turkey not making too much noise. frankly, i would much rather portugal play SECOND today so we could see the switzerland result before the portugal game, but we dont get that option.
still, i think the czechs will sit back and try to play for the draw, maybe look for that counter-attack goal.
if portugal nets one early, scolari can start moving people back and making some formation adjustments/subs at halftime to preserve his lead. i dont see any reason why portugal would risk injury to any of their stars in this game. i dont see portugal playing with as much urgency as they did firstgame

-switzerland without their leader and captain, frei,and will replace him with an attacking midfielder in yakin. defensively, turkey will be hurting in the central defense with zan out and possibly cetin as well.
so, we have switzerland looking to play more attack-minded, and turkey possibly without both of its center backs. there will be alot of changes and shifting in that back 4, will they be able to adjust and play together?

-both teams lost in game 1. both teams need to be more attack-minded and play for a win. there is no sitting back and waiting for a draw option here.
both teams need to take chances.

-i would not be surprised to see an ejection in the 2H of the switz/turks game. these two teams hate eachother and brawled last time they met in 05 in the 'battle of istanbul', lol. an ejection may totally screw with the outcome of the game.
 
well i started that a bit too late, and by the time i hit submit looked up and the game was on. so that makes it a bit "after the fact"

really, it didnt matter, because already in game 1 i am TOTALLY wrong!!!!!

1-1 already!!! and only 18 in!!!

looks like my analysis for game 1 is off the mark already! lol

maybe ill be more right about game 2... good thing i laid off that under. was so wrong, so wrong
 
if either of my books, (5D or VIP) had in-game betting, i would be all over the OVER in this portugal game

my analysis above was wrong... (although i finished typing a bit late as i went upstairs for a break and to get some more coffee, and forgot to even turn the game on till i look up and its 12: 15 and already 1-1)
still i was very wrong!

the way this game has opened up with the early portugal goal and all the chances for both sides makes this game a good in-game option to look at OVER 3.5 or whatever you could get.
 
Pinnacle has over 3, I took some of it, got to think theres at least one more goal in this game. GL
 
THERE YA GO CAT! just need one more

FINALLY, after some excellent chances for both sides

simao has been a thorn in czechs side all half!
 
9-1 so far.....

alright guys, ive treaded lightly the last 2 days and just watched the games....nothing really stood out to me and like the NBA playoffs, im not forcing anything. its worked out well. watch me take it in the ass today now, lol. anyways, i like two for today..... and tomorrow will probably be on spain -1 (if itally loses today and my ML parlay dies) and DEFINITELY russia for a big play with arshavin coming back......really likin the russians tomorrow. gus will get it done, gus does not lose twice in a row.

ML parlay: Italy/Spain (90/171.76)
(love the value on this one)

Netherlands -0.5 @+160 (80/128)

VIVA ITALIA! GL!
 
Russia -0.5 @ +111 (105/116.55)

Spain -1 @+115 (80/92)


:cheers:

Time to go get drunk! Friday hell yeah
Picked up a bottle of ketel one an hour ago... I dont expect to return home until its empty
:popcorn:
 
Tuesdays ACtion:

italy PK (-119) $90/75.63

italy/france over 2.5 (+127) $80/101.60

netherlands/romania draw (+256) $60/153.60

been treading very lightly these last couple of days and not playing anything....

we know it's very tricky in the game 3 situation where certain teams are resting players but not releasing who theyre going to be resting, or the style of play theyre going to employ. not worth the risk.
better to just save your money adn wait till the quarters/semis/finals..... thats where we will find profit. no reason to force anything.

i will say im looking to throw some loot on a netherlands future to win it all...this team looks to be clicking on all cylinders and i like them to really make some noise throughout the rest of the tourney.

GL today fellas...
 
Thanks measy, yeah I been doin OK. lot of people in this forum know a hell of a lot more then I do!

Hangover of death from the celtics game yesterday. fucking feel like shit

Spain -0.5 (-141) $98/69.50
russia -0.5 (+166) $60/99.60
 
thanks zecco, funny thing is there are at least 5-10 people that post in this forum that are way more intelligent then me about foots.
i did play the game for 11 years, for my club team and then my HS team, but gave it up after that wasnt good enough for college.
so i know the game very well, but dont know the international teams inside and out like others on here.... soccer as a sport is really shit on in here in the united states, and its really hard to follow anything besides the terrible play in the joke-league MLS

15-5 so far, which includes my 1 future I placed which was russia to advance (in my first thread)... will be placing one more future on the dutch VERY shortly....

will have some better thoughts for the quarters and on... now that we dont have these situations including who HAS to win and who doesnt and who can advance with a draw and all that crap. plus the NBA finals are over too.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
good work Cap, keep it rolling man, build that roll up for the European season.
Click to expand...

:shake:

Right on cue! There is one of the more knowledgable people I spoke of above. TM is the guy you want to come for foots insight.... he knows it like the back of his hand

Thank you sir, lookin at portugal for tomorrow....
 
This will be my last post in this thread....from here on out I will actually have more basis and thoughts with my picks. Just havent had the time.
Especially getting caught 3x watching that tiger match last week lol I have no leniency to get caught at work anymore!!!!!!!!
I think I also like the over, and acouple people on here make some EXCELLENT points on why it will go over (satyr, ray, etc). but cant pull the trigger.

Croatia -0.5 (-109) 60/55.05
(hit this 2 days ago when i saw the line and had to hit it. should have hit it ALOT harder though)
Croatia -0.5 (-121) 105/86.78

This is a larger wager then the rest of mine have been, but not by too much.
Still pretty confident about this one, and felt we gotta take a chance here.
GL fellas!
 
im slumping.... and ive only lost 2 in a row. feel like tomorrow can pick us back up

we should see a very open game tomorrow, and im seeing a 3-1 or 4-1 dutch win.

IMO the dutch are the best team in the tourney right now (though germany looked excellent and like they are finally playing up to their potential against portugal)

ANYONE up front or in the midfield can score. too many weapons. they spread the scoring around VERY well.
Sneijder, van persie, van nistelrooy (though he lacks the speed he once had, he can still put away those "garbage goals").

you have van der sar in the net who has been in-impenetrable and IMO the best keeper in the tourney right now

only thing that worries me is GUUSY knows how to beat the netherlands. he did coach them in 98 worldcup and lead them to i believe the semis.

dutch are 4-2-2 against the russkies in 8 matches..
big game for them too in that they will all be wearing black armbands.... Boulahrouz's prematurely born daughter just passed away and its going to be an emotional game for them. there will be no letting up

russia is on limited rest as well, theyve had less then 3 days to recover and get ready for this game.

netherlands will take advantage of this and run them into the ground. they have the speed, showed they possess an excellent counterattack (ie.. match vs italy) and i like them to get it done tomororow.
 
OVER 2.5 GOALS (-105) $90/85.71

DUTCH -1 (+115) 85/97.75

thats it folks, im drunk as piss, and need some sleep for tomorrows games!

GL!
 
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