BTB:
WEEK 13: 0-1
SEASON: 8-5
Powers' WEEK 13: 2-0 and 9-2 last 10 weeks
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I'll do it as I can. Looks like they have 9 games and the best bet.
Best Bet is OVER 53 Bama vs Ga
Powers' Bet: ( I was wrong about this. His comments just indicated he took Boise). He sees nothing particular of Value in the games of non-power 5.
Oregon vs Washington +9.5/66-67 (in Las Vegas)
37 FBS receivers have 900+ receiving yds this season. Four will be in this game. Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson (Oregon) and Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk (Washington).
First Top 5 match-up btw Pac 12 teams since 1976 (my high school graduation year) when #2 UCLA lost to #3 USC. Washingto seeking first 3 game winning streak agst Oregon since late '80s. Oregon has won 8 games by 24+, second most in FBS behind MI. With Lanning is head coach they are 20-0 when allowing 30 points or less. 1-4 when they allow over 30, including their loss to Washington earlier this year, Washington has not been down more than 7 points in any game this season and trailed only in 5 games for less then 100 minutes. Deboer is 22-0 as head coach when UDUB allows less than 40 points and 1-2 if they allow over 40. Washington won the regulae season game 36-33 (if you remember the Ducks passed on ez fgs twice in that game including the last play of 1H from like the 2 yd line)
Is this line too high? Powers:
"It seems like an extreme adjustment, but according to my ratings it's not....In first meeting I was on Washington side...I thought Oregon should have won and covered. Since then I have upgraded Oregon 5 points and downgraded Washington 4 points. I think I can attribute the Washington downgrade to the play of Michael Penix.....He has not played like he's healthy in last 6 games. (gives stats, including since Oregon game completing less than 60% of passes and only 12 TD passes in 6 games. 5 picks and 266 passing yds per game, more than 100 yds per game less than prior). He said their receivers, exception Odunze, have not been as good.
"I am a little involved on Oregon this week. It was not such a shocking number to me."
What do you see being the key match-up? Payne:
"I think Brad hit on all the key points [the line] looks a litlle nutty, I don't see it that way....[Washington's latest wins] have been a struggle. AZ State had every chance to win as a 4 TD dog. Stanford gave them trouble as a 4 TD dog. Undermanned Utah was a dog fight. Oregon State dictate4d the entire 2H and then last week the Huskies do not even come close to reaching expectations in Apple cup....A lot to do with Penix, things going on there....Basically this is an offense that has gone from being top 3 in every single category to 6 game trendline below top 25. That;s massive when you think about being a pass first outfit....its really meaningful. Oregon sdary is better than suggested, but then again they have not been tested and Jahlil Florence for Ducks seen on sideline swith crutches and Roderick Pleasant has not played last 2 games. That's how Washington is going to win the game if passing game returns to form especially with Dillon Johnson at rb not looking 100%. (then goes over Nix stats in last game on short passes not being as good as usual)...Still, Oregon should have won that game. Ducks just lost the 4th down variance battle, going 0-3 including getting stopped twice inside the 5 yd line....the last one being to salt the game late." (then says what he has said all season re Washington D line being a weakness). "
The last game was 6 games into the season, off a bye with 2 weeks to rest...what's it going to look like with a short week, travel and game 13 when it comes to physicality?" "
Oregon is clearly the side, but we;ve watched the line creep up.....Look ahead line was -4.5 then 7 open at 8 and now -9.5, isn't it better to bet Nix to win Heisman -150 if you think Ducks win Friday night?"
Powers' rating for Oregon is #2 behind GA.
OKState vs Texas - more than 2 TDs/55. (In Jerry World)
OKState beat Texas in one possession games in '21 and '22 in regular season; they did not play this year. 32-24 and 41-34. Last week's win for Texas was largest margin win agst Big12 since 2007.
Powers does TX Offense vs OkState Defense.
He's asked what does OKSt need to do? "Pray." He then gets serious and says they need to get pressure and turnovers. Brooks is a loss for Texas at rb and he says that the path for OKSt success is possible b/c the
Texas offense is "meh." He's not overly impressed with Texas and
"Ewers is fine but not sure he wins you a playoff game." All in all he liked Texas O but not loved it. He then trashed OkState defense in basic metrics #116 in yds per play, #115 in yds per game, #77 in limiting scoring. In advance metrics #22 in defensice success rate, #52 in defensive epa. He noted that
"Kansas and OU really lit them up thru the air. Let's be honest, Texas' receiving corp when they want to be on it's as good as it gets in the Big 12....
The problem I have is I do not know what OKState team is showing up....very inconsistent." Powers says
"Texas might need margin here. They play at 11;00 on Saturday and they do not know what will happen after. I factor that in with my handicap, so I agree with the money - Texas and Over here."
Furhman notes that last 16 times as a dog OK State are 11-5 and won outright 9 times, including earlier this year vs OU and KState. They are 10-2-1 ATS last 13 games agst AP ranked opponents.
Powers then says he bet Texas (did not say at what number) but these ATS numbers kept it fom a big wager.
"Not ideal laying more than 2 TDs agst OKState."
Payne does OKSt offense vs TX defense.
"Listening to you 2 talk about this game is reason 1,000,001 why sports betting is way more difficult than it should be for guys like us....its difficult b/c of Auburn vs Bama and Auburn vs NMexState...not to relive last week but OkState falls in that same bucket. We all bet OKState win total under 7 and we lost, and its a mystery as to how? Head scratcher how they are in this game... they are the luckiest team all season. If you look at every snap this season the expected win rate was 4.8 season wins. That's why game open at -11 and its now -14/15 (I am seeing -16). OKState is playing with house money, all the pressure is on Texas to win and to win with margin and we've seen Sark and Texas lay a stinker a time or 2." Payne thinks Texas can limit Ollie Gordon down to down and gives stats to support Texas run defense. He gives examples of KState and Bama that prove the need to pass,not run, agst Texas. Payne notes Texas lead corner, Ryan Moore, left Tech game, what is his status?
"We all have Texas +125 to win Big12...great position to be in and I am not hedging."
Boise State vs UNLV +2.5/59 (In Vegas)
Line "has been a battle" (last I saw was 2). 7th appearance in championship for Boise with 3 wins in prior 6. Boise fired head coach and lost top receiver and then went 3-0 and 2-0 under interim head coach. This is UNLV's 1st ever appearance in championship. They lost to San Jose State in final game and were down 17-0 and lost 37-31.
Powers:
"Really hard game to power rate" due to fundamental changes in both teams. He thinks that the positive change with Boise is real. He goes over the season and highlights a few plays that made all the difference in their record.
"They lost by 1 to ColState on a hail mary pass last play of game, blowing a 20 pt lead with 5 minutes left. A 100 yd kickoff return on the final polay of first half agst Fresno that gave the Bulldogs momentum (he said that was one of 4-5 plays in that game). They lost at home to a final second fg by UCF, they lose to Memphis by 3 in Memphis after a blocked fg attempt and return by Memphis for a TD. You don't have to get too creative to get Boise from 7-5 to 9-3 or 10-2ish...They are only laying 2.5 to UNLV, I don't think so." In regular season Boise brings more fans than UNLV even though game is in Vegas. He does not expect a big home field advantage for UNLV game in Vegas and would not be surpised in fans are 60-40 for UNLV. My power rating favors Boise by 1.
"So why do you like Boise here? Because of the maual adjustments, program is ascending, been there and done that,...very similar to the San Jose game last week where statistically Boise is better in yd per play margin, yds per game margin and the thing the market can't grasp is the SOS disparity...biggest SOS disparity of all 10 conf champ games. I don't think the models appropiately get that right on a consistent basis. I am on Boise here."
Payne:
"I am interested where line goes. At 2.5 it was Boise money at 3 it was UNLV. As we sit here and record the same is going on, game went from 2, 2.5 to 3 and blasted back down to 2.5/2. You can make a case for either team. The last 3 wins by Boise agst those opponents (New Mexico, Utah State and a banged up AF) "does not completely do it for me...you could have taken SJState +3.5 in UNLV's last game which was meaningless to them and now you give them 2.5 in a game that means the world to them? Theoretically we have like a 6 point adjustment in just 7 days on UNLV. If San Jose St and Boise played now it's what pick or -1? [he asked Brad and Brad said "no Boise wud be favored by 3 or so...Boise laid 7 at home to SJState "I wud have it 3ish"]. Payne likes UNLV,coach Barry Odom (all 3 do) and he is a defensive coach with success at Arkansas with inferior talent in SEC. Boise wants to run and UNLV is in top 40 in epa per rush allowed and he believes Odom forces Taylen Green of Boise to beat him. Green only attempted 40 passes in last 3 games bc Boise was able to just hand it off in 2 games. and agst AF Green threw 2 picks on 17 attempts.
"To me the biggest advantage is UNLV pass game agst Boise 2dary. UNLV when you adjust for SOS is still in top 30 in both pass success and epa. Boise State is outside top 100 defending the pass. He said this game is wonky." I can confirm Brad's side b/c I have had multiple buy orders sent to me and very respectable bettors are saying Boise is the side., but every time we get to 3 the invisible man comes out and the invisible man is hitting like 99%." "I can confirm Brad's side but I do not have a dog in the fight." Brad replies
"I only have Boise only -1 on a nuetral site and it does concern me."
SMU vs Tulane -3.5/47 Tulane hosting
What is drop off for SMU w/o Preston Stone? Brad:
"I have it at a line of 3.5 and market agrees." He does not think Stone is that good. He does like SMU as a team and thought they may be best group of 5 team in nation and he really like SMU TE, "Maryland" - NFL caliber, "he's been good but not greaat." Kevin Jennings as replacement for Stone is good and has experience (cites games and drives last year) and was a state championshion in HS in Texas. He does not see a TD downgrade for SMU.
"If there was one game that was lining up, it was a bet on SMU, a clearly superior team [before Stone loss]." Payne:
"A really respected bettor grabbed smu +2 last week before Stone out...we were all going to bet SMU." Powers got SMU +6.5 before line corrected to +3.5. Total opened at 54.5 and now at 47 and they suggest that luster is gone on game. The battle is on the betting line with SMU getting bets at above 3.5. Questions regarding coach Fritz and his next move. (They were really not informative re their projections since Stone is now out).
Georgia vs Bama +5 to +6.5/53 in Atlanta
Kirby is 1-4 agst Saban after leading all 5. Bama has gone Over the total in 8 straight SEC title games with avg closing line of 50.6 and avg score north of 62. Tide has gone Over in 7 of last 8 games.
Should we use full system data or current form? If full season data used - favor GA. If current form - Bama has edge. Stats given on Bama's running/passing/offense/scoring. Bama O line much improved allowing only 4 sacks lat 4 weeks. Milroe with time is better and receivers improving and McCllelan at rb is good. Powers sees some concern for GA defense...teams are able to run agst them, allowing 40+ more yds than a year ago, Recent trend in last month, 166 rushing yds per game allowed. Will GA put an extra man in the box? But Milroe is best going deep. "
I thought the early GA-4 was a little cheap and the GA-6.5 was getting a little expensive. on GA side." The could run Milroe 20 times. if need be?
GA offense scored on 58% of its drives agst FBS opponents behind only LSU & Oregon. All signs point Bowers and McConkey to play. Bama defense not as good as in the past. Payne: "More unknowns than any of the prior meetings." GA has not played fully competent defense yet avg Ds played outside top 80. Bama's defense not been truly tested by an offense was the Longhorns and they had their way with Bama....goes over other games and highlighted LSU until Daniels was injured. There is variance with Bama defense run defense is outside top 100 in line yds allowed but somehow in top 15 in rushing success rate allowed. Delta is far too large for Bama defense and sure enough they gave up 3.2 yds per rush before 1st contact agst Auburn. Bama defense does not dominate and thinks GA has some success down to down. Also Bama is outside top 40 in big pass provention and gave one up last week to Auburn on J Johnson TD. GA will find offensive sucess. Milroe running is likely and he has had success. GA defense has more trouble with running qbs.
"At Bama +6.5 on game day you'll probably see a buy on Bama...not stun me either to see 53 is the floor on the total."
Furhman: Pace numbers do not say this will be a track meet but both offenses are efficient at moving the ball agst opponents.
Louisville vs FSU in Charlotte (did not give the line, I am seeing Ville +2 and 47.5)
Louisville off a bad loss to KY as a 7.5 favorite. FSU covered over Florida in final game to remain undefeated. Norvel was1-2 in conference title games at Memphis. Brohm 1st coach in conference history to take 2 different teams to conf title games in back to back seasons.
Powers says his power numbers oppose FSU in this game but he sounded iffy. He went over Box Score for FSU last week and noted they only had 224 of total offense and less than 100 rush yds and Florida had been allowing others yds and points to other teams [Payne later noted that FSU possessed the ball for only 8 minutes in 2H]. But he criticized Florida's play and maturity more so. He thinks Rodemaker looks better ythan he has in previous years. He did note that FSU cam back from 12 point deficit. Biggest need is for FSU O line to protect him from Ville's good pass rush. All that said "I am surprised the line punched thru 3 w/o much resistance now at 2.5"
Ville defensively has been bad, allowing 280 passing yards and 120 rushing over last 3 games and allowing 24+ in each game. Ville passing game has been poor also. Payne: "I look at this game and its one of a few times Norvel has gone into a game this season and did not have a massive advantage in coaching and scheme and adjustments. We respect the hell out of Brohm...To me, the start of the game is vital and how FSU handles that. FSU D comes out vanilla and then unleashes the real D scheme in 2H. They are the best in 2H this season and are as good as it gets, even LSU had 0 points first 28 minutes of 2h. I dont know that they can wait until 2H this game....FSU has to stop the ground game. He thinks FSU defense is rested (throughout season) and are ready. He thinks they can cause Plummer for Ville problems if they put him off schedule into known passing downs - they need to stop the run. On Ville defense vs FSU offense thinks there is a lot of variance. Ville is outside top 100 in explosive plays allowed and FSU offense is the inverse is one of 10 most explosive teams in the country. May have the situation where Ville wins 8 of 10 plays and FSU gets couple big chunk plays....last 3 weeks Ville has not looked good for 3 weeks. Jarvis Brown for Ville is a key, is he 100%? Big question is Tate Rodemaker for FSU. From what I hear internally Tate has improved dramatically in last 12-14 mos....Tate could not have been in worse poisition last week with starting field position was own 18 in 1H....The nation's perspective is irrelevant to FSU internally,they had different goals than a national championship and they have been acheiving them. WEATHER MAY BE BAD! So a lot of variance here. He wonders if bettors will wake up and say 2.5 is a little low but have not seen resistance when line evidently was 6 and has now gone to 2.5. Louisville is a better version of Florida from last week and game will be a war.
Powers says last week FSU D line popped to him, cites Fisk and then he suggest Ville defense is lacking depth. FSU may well have opportunities. Payne then says FSU D players Peyton, Lovett, Farmer, Fisk and Verse are all NFL caliber players.
Iowa vs Michign -23.5/35 in Indy
Iowa lost 42-3 2 years ago in champ game. Lowest Total ever in Conf Champ game. Basically everyone says the obvious re a 23 point favorite and a 35 point total. It's not good for the favorite:
A favorite of 10+ and 40 total [140 games] the favorite is 43% ATS
A 2 TD favorite and total of 37 or less 30% ATS [23 sample size]
A 3 TD favorie and total of 37 or less [14 times since 1980] 14% ATS at 2-12
Powers is waiting on a btter number on Iowa and then will bet them (I am seeing line lower now at +22). Payne sees money on Mich bc the West Division is "utter shit" and Iowa was on average facing the 70th ranked team each week, schedule was a cakewalk. Iowa has won with "a horseshoe stuck up their ass." Tals of fumbles last week. Of all games played last week, Iowa's was 6th unlikely. At recording the line was -24. MI is banged up and won their Super Bowl last week. MI does not need margin and win and in. But, Deacon Hill for Iowa is going to be a problem for Iowa and they literally laugh.
Payne aint taking Iowa and Brad suggest he might take them at 24.5
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