ESPN's Handicappers Picks Conference Championships

M.W.

Parties like it's 1979
Based on this post by @Grovehard in SEC thread, I backed off of the 3 units on Ole Miss....took it back to 2 Units -10

Sounds like Ole Miss isn’t getting the guys back on the OL. No play for me. I still think Ole Miss wins but I’m not willing to lay over 10 with a makeshift unit up front.
Sorry I missed that. I ended up pushing some at 10 and winning some at 9.5, but the under was always my big play on that game. Might have added some more with that info. That’s what comes with too much drinking, I guess. I passed out in the 1Q and missed all those chances to make a killing with in game unders.
 
None of the pickers finished above .500 this year for the regular season. I wouldn't have guessed it when the season started, but Joe Fortenbaugh had the best record.

Never did see picks for Cowherd this week

Stanford Steve—(2-4) (39-43) Three Year Record (103-79)
Virginia +2x Lose
Alabama -13 Lose
UMass +1x Lose
Washington State +15x Win
Miami Oh -4 Lose
Tenn/Vandy o 57x Win

The Bear—(1-5) (27-41) Three Year Record (98-89)

UTSA +4 Lose
NCST +2.5 Win
Temple +11.5 Lose
TCU +10 Lose
Utah -21.5 Lose
BEST BET: Boston College ML Lose

Scott Van Pelt—(3-6) (50-59) Three Year Record (164-125)

TCU +9x Lose
Ark +9 Lose
Ky +7x Win
Ariz St +11 Lose
Aub +13 Win
Fla +6x Lose
Ga Tech +24 Win
Cinc +7 Lose
Nevada +11 Lose

Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(3-6) (57-59) (75-52)

Nebraska -2x Lose
Arkansas +7x Lose
Boise State -6x Win
LSU/aTm o 66 Win
Arizona St +10x Lose
Illinois -5x Lose
Cincinnati +6 Lose
San Jose State +3 Win
UCLA/Cal o 52 Lose

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five—(4-1) (36-33) Three Year Record (94-100)


My Picks— (0-1) (19-19) Teasers (3-3) (22-16) Three Year Record (150-97)

Bama -13 Lose
Teasers: Dallas/49ers Win
Ole Miss/UNLV Lose
Iowa/BC, Lose
Iowa/Missouri Win
UTSA/Boise St Lose
Texas/Oregon Win

Joe Fortenbaugh— (1-3) (22-22) Two Year Record (45-41)

Michigan/Ohio State u 46x Lose
Ball state +4 Win
Jacksonville State -2x Lose
Alabama -13 Lose

Bet the following already for this week
Texas -12x
Georgia -5
Teaser Texas/Georgia
 
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I love ducks to beat udub but I wasn’t anticipating a -9.5 line! Not sure wtf I’m gonna do w that?
Same here. I was all set to bet Texas, Georgia, and Oregon on the open, but that line shocked me. It opened at Oregon -7x with my book and was already up to -9x by the time I looked at it. I thought I'd see -3 or maybe -3x

I'm going to bet SMU, but will wait till game day for that one since that line was up to -5x for a time and might go back again. Every game except the MAC title game interests me.
 
Same here. I was all set to bet Texas, Georgia, and Oregon on the open, but that line shocked me. It opened at Oregon -7x with my book and was already up to -9x by the time I looked at it. I thought I'd see -3 or maybe -3x

I'm going to bet SMU, but will wait till game day for that one since that line was up to -5x for a time and might go back again. Every game except the MAC title game interests me.

Havnt I been hearing smu qb is possibly hurt?

I sure didn’t expect ducks to be more than -7. I kinda figured 6/7 range considering at Washington ducks were mostly the better team and have def looked the better of the 2 since that game. Had ducks just kicked the fgs at Washington they win that game, had they punched those in they win by margin so on a neutral I was kinda expecting it be around a td, but more than -7 tough to figure. I guess I saw a -7.5 but then moved quickly, woulda liked to bought it down to -7 then!!! Now figure might as well wait, I gotta think udub gonna take some money, I assume they end up a rather popular dog wouldn’t you think?? Some lame Ass gamblers I know have already text me asking if I like udub w the points, they just want me to validate what they thinking! Lol., ideally huskies take enough money to push it back down to 8 or 7.5 amd I can get ducks -7. Reasonably cheap. At the moment it -150, don’t love that but still it ducks or nothing for me:. Pains me to say it cause I like everything bout huskies program, like the coach, gotta root for Penix with all he been thru, just not sure they can hang with ducks if they both play their best games. Have a feeling ducks win by multiple scores.

Im def gonna be looking at Ewers or texas wr props. I don’t think cowboys have the guys in secondary to hang w longhorn playmakers.
 
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Same here. I was all set to bet Texas, Georgia, and Oregon on the open, but that line shocked me. It opened at Oregon -7x with my book and was already up to -9x by the time I looked at it. I thought I'd see -3 or maybe -3x

I'm going to bet SMU, but will wait till game day for that one since that line was up to -5x for a time and might go back again. Every game except the MAC title game interests me.

I practically never do teasers with ncaafb, I was thinking bout maybe a ducks/horns teaser but now horns -15 so that no good. Lol. I suppose I could do a ducks/bama tease but taking bama to +12 seems like a waste, I think they stay inside 10 but still not playing a teaser going thru bunch of dead numbers!!

I have no clue in the sec championship. I have bet bama more since losing to texas then after that ugly showing the following week then I have maybe ever bet bama. They been way undervalued for a change this year but seems to me they getting plenty of respect with just +6 vs Uga! I fully expect bama can play with them but I was hoping/expecting to get more than a td! Sure wish the ducks and Uga lines were reversed!! I’d be all over ducks-6 and bama+9.5! Lol
 
Havnt I been hearing smu qb is possibly hurt?

I sure didn’t expect ducks to be more than -7. I kinda figured 6/7 range considering at Washington ducks were mostly the better team and have def looked the better of the 2 since that game. Had ducks just kicked the fgs at Washington they win that game, had they punched those in they win by margin so on a neutral I was kinda expecting it be around a td, but more than -7 tough to figure. I guess I saw a -7.5 but then moved quickly, woulda liked to bought it down to -7 then!!! Now figure might as well wait, I gotta think udub gonna take some money, I assume they end up a rather popular dog wouldn’t you think?? Some lame Ass gamblers I know have already text me asking if I like udub w the points, they just want me to validate what they thinking! Lol., ideally huskies take enough money to push it back down to 8 or 7.5 amd I can get ducks -7. Reasonably cheap. At the moment it -150, don’t love that but still it ducks or nothing for me:. Pains me to say it cause I like everything bout huskies program, like the coach, gotta root for Penix with all he been thru, just not sure they can hang with ducks if they both play their best games. Have a feeling ducks win by multiple scores.

Im def gonna be looking at Ewers or texas wr props. I don’t think cowboys have the guys in secondary to hang w longhorn playmakers.
Glad you posed about the SMU QB. I hadn't heard he was injured, but he broke his leg and is out for this game and any bowl game.

Makes a big difference in how I feel about betting that game. The SMU defense is excellent, but no better than Tulane, so I'm not betting SMU. Haven't checked the line today, but based on what it was yesterday Tulane looks like the side to me
 
Glad you posed about the SMU QB. I hadn't heard he was injured, but he broke his leg and is out for this game and any bowl game.

Makes a big difference in how I feel about betting that game. The SMU defense is excellent, but no better than Tulane, so I'm not betting SMU. Haven't checked the line today, but based on what it was yesterday Tulane looks like the side to me

I really havnt had the chance to follow smu this year, only thing I’d say is that line seems rather light considering how good tulane been and smu being without their qb, doesn’t it?
 
BTB:
WEEK 13: 0-1
SEASON: 8-5
Powers' WEEK 13: 2-0 and 9-2 last 10 weeks


Best Bet is OVER 53 Bama vs Ga
Powers' Bet: ( I was wrong about this. His comments just indicated he took Boise). He sees nothing particular of Value in the games of non-power 5.

Oregon vs Washington +9.5/66-67 (in Las Vegas)

37 FBS receivers have 900+ receiving yds this season. Four will be in this game. Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson (Oregon) and Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk (Washington).
First Top 5 match-up btw Pac 12 teams since 1976 (my high school graduation year) when #2 UCLA lost to #3 USC. Washingto seeking first 3 game winning streak agst Oregon since late '80s. Oregon has won 8 games by 24+, second most in FBS behind MI. With Lanning is head coach they are 20-0 when allowing 30 points or less. 1-4 when they allow over 30, including their loss to Washington earlier this year, Washington has not been down more than 7 points in any game this season and trailed only in 5 games for less then 100 minutes. Deboer is 22-0 as head coach when UDUB allows less than 40 points and 1-2 if they allow over 40. Washington won the regulae season game 36-33 (if you remember the Ducks passed on ez fgs twice in that game including the last play of 1H from like the 2 yd line)

Is this line too high? Powers: "It seems like an extreme adjustment, but according to my ratings it's not....In first meeting I was on Washington side...I thought Oregon should have won and covered. Since then I have upgraded Oregon 5 points and downgraded Washington 4 points. I think I can attribute the Washington downgrade to the play of Michael Penix.....He has not played like he's healthy in last 6 games. (gives stats, including since Oregon game completing less than 60% of passes and only 12 TD passes in 6 games. 5 picks and 266 passing yds per game, more than 100 yds per game less than prior). He said their receivers, exception Odunze, have not been as good. "I am a little involved on Oregon this week. It was not such a shocking number to me."

What do you see being the key match-up? Payne: "I think Brad hit on all the key points [the line] looks a litlle nutty, I don't see it that way....[Washington's latest wins] have been a struggle. AZ State had every chance to win as a 4 TD dog. Stanford gave them trouble as a 4 TD dog. Undermanned Utah was a dog fight. Oregon State dictate4d the entire 2H and then last week the Huskies do not even come close to reaching expectations in Apple cup....A lot to do with Penix, things going on there....Basically this is an offense that has gone from being top 3 in every single category to 6 game trendline below top 25. That;s massive when you think about being a pass first outfit....its really meaningful. Oregon sdary is better than suggested, but then again they have not been tested and Jahlil Florence for Ducks seen on sideline swith crutches and Roderick Pleasant has not played last 2 games. That's how Washington is going to win the game if passing game returns to form especially with Dillon Johnson at rb not looking 100%. (then goes over Nix stats in last game on short passes not being as good as usual)...Still, Oregon should have won that game. Ducks just lost the 4th down variance battle, going 0-3 including getting stopped twice inside the 5 yd line....the last one being to salt the game late." (then says what he has said all season re Washington D line being a weakness). "The last game was 6 games into the season, off a bye with 2 weeks to rest...what's it going to look like with a short week, travel and game 13 when it comes to physicality?" "Oregon is clearly the side, but we;ve watched the line creep up.....Look ahead line was -4.5 then 7 open at 8 and now -9.5, isn't it better to bet Nix to win Heisman -150 if you think Ducks win Friday night?"
Powers' rating for Oregon is #2 behind GA.

OKState vs Texas - more than 2 TDs/55. (In Jerry World)

OKState beat Texas in one possession games in '21 and '22 in regular season; they did not play this year. 32-24 and 41-34. Last week's win for Texas was largest margin win agst Big12 since 2007.

Powers does TX Offense vs OkState Defense. He's asked what does OKSt need to do? "Pray." He then gets serious and says they need to get pressure and turnovers. Brooks is a loss for Texas at rb and he says that the path for OKSt success is possible b/c the Texas offense is "meh." He's not overly impressed with Texas and "Ewers is fine but not sure he wins you a playoff game." All in all he liked Texas O but not loved it. He then trashed OkState defense in basic metrics #116 in yds per play, #115 in yds per game, #77 in limiting scoring. In advance metrics #22 in defensice success rate, #52 in defensive epa. He noted that "Kansas and OU really lit them up thru the air. Let's be honest, Texas' receiving corp when they want to be on it's as good as it gets in the Big 12....The problem I have is I do not know what OKState team is showing up....very inconsistent." Powers says "Texas might need margin here. They play at 11;00 on Saturday and they do not know what will happen after. I factor that in with my handicap, so I agree with the money - Texas and Over here." Furhman notes that last 16 times as a dog OK State are 11-5 and won outright 9 times, including earlier this year vs OU and KState. They are 10-2-1 ATS last 13 games agst AP ranked opponents. Powers then says he bet Texas (did not say at what number) but these ATS numbers kept it fom a big wager. "Not ideal laying more than 2 TDs agst OKState."

Payne does OKSt offense vs TX defense. "Listening to you 2 talk about this game is reason 1,000,001 why sports betting is way more difficult than it should be for guys like us....its difficult b/c of Auburn vs Bama and Auburn vs NMexState...not to relive last week but OkState falls in that same bucket. We all bet OKState win total under 7 and we lost, and its a mystery as to how? Head scratcher how they are in this game... they are the luckiest team all season. If you look at every snap this season the expected win rate was 4.8 season wins. That's why game open at -11 and its now -14/15 (I am seeing -16). OKState is playing with house money, all the pressure is on Texas to win and to win with margin and we've seen Sark and Texas lay a stinker a time or 2." Payne thinks Texas can limit Ollie Gordon down to down and gives stats to support Texas run defense. He gives examples of KState and Bama that prove the need to pass,not run, agst Texas. Payne notes Texas lead corner, Ryan Moore, left Tech game, what is his status? "We all have Texas +125 to win Big12...great position to be in and I am not hedging."

Boise State vs UNLV +2.5/59 (In Vegas)
Line "has been a battle" (last I saw was 2). 7th appearance in championship for Boise with 3 wins in prior 6. Boise fired head coach and lost top receiver and then went 3-0 and 2-0 under interim head coach. This is UNLV's 1st ever appearance in championship. They lost to San Jose State in final game and were down 17-0 and lost 37-31.

Powers: "Really hard game to power rate" due to fundamental changes in both teams. He thinks that the positive change with Boise is real. He goes over the season and highlights a few plays that made all the difference in their record. "They lost by 1 to ColState on a hail mary pass last play of game, blowing a 20 pt lead with 5 minutes left. A 100 yd kickoff return on the final polay of first half agst Fresno that gave the Bulldogs momentum (he said that was one of 4-5 plays in that game). They lost at home to a final second fg by UCF, they lose to Memphis by 3 in Memphis after a blocked fg attempt and return by Memphis for a TD. You don't have to get too creative to get Boise from 7-5 to 9-3 or 10-2ish...They are only laying 2.5 to UNLV, I don't think so." In regular season Boise brings more fans than UNLV even though game is in Vegas. He does not expect a big home field advantage for UNLV game in Vegas and would not be surpised in fans are 60-40 for UNLV. My power rating favors Boise by 1. "So why do you like Boise here? Because of the maual adjustments, program is ascending, been there and done that,...very similar to the San Jose game last week where statistically Boise is better in yd per play margin, yds per game margin and the thing the market can't grasp is the SOS disparity...biggest SOS disparity of all 10 conf champ games. I don't think the models appropiately get that right on a consistent basis. I am on Boise here."

Payne: "I am interested where line goes. At 2.5 it was Boise money at 3 it was UNLV. As we sit here and record the same is going on, game went from 2, 2.5 to 3 and blasted back down to 2.5/2. You can make a case for either team. The last 3 wins by Boise agst those opponents (New Mexico, Utah State and a banged up AF) "does not completely do it for me...you could have taken SJState +3.5 in UNLV's last game which was meaningless to them and now you give them 2.5 in a game that means the world to them? Theoretically we have like a 6 point adjustment in just 7 days on UNLV. If San Jose St and Boise played now it's what pick or -1? [he asked Brad and Brad said "no Boise wud be favored by 3 or so...Boise laid 7 at home to SJState "I wud have it 3ish"]. Payne likes UNLV,coach Barry Odom (all 3 do) and he is a defensive coach with success at Arkansas with inferior talent in SEC. Boise wants to run and UNLV is in top 40 in epa per rush allowed and he believes Odom forces Taylen Green of Boise to beat him. Green only attempted 40 passes in last 3 games bc Boise was able to just hand it off in 2 games. and agst AF Green threw 2 picks on 17 attempts. "To me the biggest advantage is UNLV pass game agst Boise 2dary. UNLV when you adjust for SOS is still in top 30 in both pass success and epa. Boise State is outside top 100 defending the pass. He said this game is wonky." I can confirm Brad's side b/c I have had multiple buy orders sent to me and very respectable bettors are saying Boise is the side., but every time we get to 3 the invisible man comes out and the invisible man is hitting like 99%." "I can confirm Brad's side but I do not have a dog in the fight." Brad replies "I only have Boise only -1 on a nuetral site and it does concern me."

SMU vs Tulane -3.5/47 Tulane hosting
What is drop off for SMU w/o Preston Stone?
Brad: "I have it at a line of 3.5 and market agrees." He does not think Stone is that good. He does like SMU as a team and thought they may be best group of 5 team in nation and he really like SMU TE, "Maryland" - NFL caliber, "he's been good but not greaat." Kevin Jennings as replacement for Stone is good and has experience (cites games and drives last year) and was a state championshion in HS in Texas. He does not see a TD downgrade for SMU. "If there was one game that was lining up, it was a bet on SMU, a clearly superior team [before Stone loss]." Payne: "A really respected bettor grabbed smu +2 last week before Stone out...we were all going to bet SMU." Powers got SMU +6.5 before line corrected to +3.5. Total opened at 54.5 and now at 47 and they suggest that luster is gone on game. The battle is on the betting line with SMU getting bets at above 3.5. Questions regarding coach Fritz and his next move. (They were really not informative re their projections since Stone is now out).

Georgia vs Bama +5 to +6.5/53 in Atlanta
Kirby is 1-4 agst Saban after leading all 5. Bama has gone Over the total in 8 straight SEC title games with avg closing line of 50.6 and avg score north of 62. Tide has gone Over in 7 of last 8 games.

Should we use full system data or current form? If full season data used - favor GA. If current form - Bama has edge. Stats given on Bama's running/passing/offense/scoring. Bama O line much improved allowing only 4 sacks lat 4 weeks. Milroe with time is better and receivers improving and McCllelan at rb is good. Powers sees some concern for GA defense...teams are able to run agst them, allowing 40+ more yds than a year ago, Recent trend in last month, 166 rushing yds per game allowed. Will GA put an extra man in the box? But Milroe is best going deep. "I thought the early GA-4 was a little cheap and the GA-6.5 was getting a little expensive. on GA side." The could run Milroe 20 times. if need be?

GA offense scored on 58% of its drives agst FBS opponents behind only LSU & Oregon. All signs point Bowers and McConkey to play. Bama defense not as good as in the past. Payne: "More unknowns than any of the prior meetings." GA has not played fully competent defense yet avg Ds played outside top 80. Bama's defense not been truly tested by an offense was the Longhorns and they had their way with Bama....goes over other games and highlighted LSU until Daniels was injured. There is variance with Bama defense run defense is outside top 100 in line yds allowed but somehow in top 15 in rushing success rate allowed. Delta is far too large for Bama defense and sure enough they gave up 3.2 yds per rush before 1st contact agst Auburn. Bama defense does not dominate and thinks GA has some success down to down. Also Bama is outside top 40 in big pass provention and gave one up last week to Auburn on J Johnson TD. GA will find offensive sucess. Milroe running is likely and he has had success. GA defense has more trouble with running qbs. "At Bama +6.5 on game day you'll probably see a buy on Bama...not stun me either to see 53 is the floor on the total."

Furhman: Pace numbers do not say this will be a track meet but both offenses are efficient at moving the ball agst opponents.

Louisville vs FSU in Charlotte (did not give the line, I am seeing Ville +2 and 47.5)
Louisville off a bad loss to KY as a 7.5 favorite. FSU covered over Florida in final game to remain undefeated. Norvel was1-2 in conference title games at Memphis. Brohm 1st coach in conference history to take 2 different teams to conf title games in back to back seasons.

Powers says his power numbers oppose FSU in this game but he sounded iffy. He went over Box Score for FSU last week and noted they only had 224 of total offense and less than 100 rush yds and Florida had been allowing others yds and points to other teams [Payne later noted that FSU possessed the ball for only 8 minutes in 2H]. But he criticized Florida's play and maturity more so. He thinks Rodemaker looks better ythan he has in previous years. He did note that FSU cam back from 12 point deficit. Biggest need is for FSU O line to protect him from Ville's good pass rush. All that said "I am surprised the line punched thru 3 w/o much resistance now at 2.5"

Ville defensively has been bad, allowing 280 passing yards and 120 rushing over last 3 games and allowing 24+ in each game. Ville passing game has been poor also. Payne: "I look at this game and its one of a few times Norvel has gone into a game this season and did not have a massive advantage in coaching and scheme and adjustments. We respect the hell out of Brohm...To me, the start of the game is vital and how FSU handles that. FSU D comes out vanilla and then unleashes the real D scheme in 2H. They are the best in 2H this season and are as good as it gets, even LSU had 0 points first 28 minutes of 2h. I dont know that they can wait until 2H this game....FSU has to stop the ground game. He thinks FSU defense is rested (throughout season) and are ready. He thinks they can cause Plummer for Ville problems if they put him off schedule into known passing downs - they need to stop the run. On Ville defense vs FSU offense thinks there is a lot of variance. Ville is outside top 100 in explosive plays allowed and FSU offense is the inverse is one of 10 most explosive teams in the country. May have the situation where Ville wins 8 of 10 plays and FSU gets couple big chunk plays....last 3 weeks Ville has not looked good for 3 weeks. Jarvis Brown for Ville is a key, is he 100%? Big question is Tate Rodemaker for FSU. From what I hear internally Tate has improved dramatically in last 12-14 mos....Tate could not have been in worse poisition last week with starting field position was own 18 in 1H....The nation's perspective is irrelevant to FSU internally,they had different goals than a national championship and they have been acheiving them. WEATHER MAY BE BAD! So a lot of variance here. He wonders if bettors will wake up and say 2.5 is a little low but have not seen resistance when line evidently was 6 and has now gone to 2.5. Louisville is a better version of Florida from last week and game will be a war.

Powers says last week FSU D line popped to him, cites Fisk and then he suggest Ville defense is lacking depth. FSU may well have opportunities. Payne then says FSU D players Peyton, Lovett, Farmer, Fisk and Verse are all NFL caliber players.

Iowa vs Michign -23.5/35 in Indy
Iowa lost 42-3 2 years ago in champ game. Lowest Total ever in Conf Champ game. Basically everyone says the obvious re a 23 point favorite and a 35 point total. It's not good for the favorite:

A favorite of 10+ and 40 total [140 games] the favorite is 43% ATS
A 2 TD favorite and total of 37 or less 30% ATS [23 sample size]
A 3 TD favorie and total of 37 or less [14 times since 1980] 14% ATS at 2-12


Powers is waiting on a btter number on Iowa and then will bet them (I am seeing line lower now at +22). Payne sees money on Mich bc the West Division is "utter shit" and Iowa was on average facing the 70th ranked team each week, schedule was a cakewalk. Iowa has won with "a horseshoe stuck up their ass." Talks about fumbles in Iowa's game last week and how that was lucky for them. Of all games played last week, Iowa's win was 6th most unlikely. At recording, the line was -24. MI is banged up and won their Super Bowl last week. MI does not need margin b/c win and they're in. Deacon Hill for Iowa is going to be a problem for Iowa and they literally laugh.

Payne aint taking Iowa and Brad suggest he might take them at 24.5
 
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I really havnt had the chance to follow smu this year, only thing I’d say is that line seems rather light considering how good tulane been and smu being without their qb, doesn’t it?
Seems that way to me, but Tulane has won SU over and over, but had trouble covering ATS. And SMU is well know for their offense, but their defense is every bit as good as Tulane's, better in some areas. That may be why the line hasn't moved even with Stone out

Also some injury problems for Georgia. Bowers and McConkey were both held out against G Tech and Kirby is listing them as questionable this week, No one is Georgia believes they won't play against Bama, but there is still that possibility. A third receiver was also held out of the G Tech game
 
Seems that way to me, but Tulane has won SU over and over, but had trouble covering ATS. And SMU is well know for their offense, but their defense is every bit as good as Tulane's, better in some areas. That may be why the line hasn't moved even with Stone out

Also some injury problems for Georgia. Bowers and McConkey were both held out against G Tech and Kirby is listing them as questionable this week, No one is Georgia believes they won't play against Bama, but there is still that possibility. A third receiver was also held out of the G Tech game

Im treating bowers as if he fine. He looked mostly like himself against vols and has had several more weeks since then, no way am I capping this with any assumption other than he 100%. Im looking at it like everyone on Uga is good to go, if it turns out they not then more power to me., Im still not interested in laying -6 vs bama. I just can’t do it! Far to much respect for saban, the defense,, and despite Milroe faults I feel like he has become incredibly comfortable in who he is. Long as he avoids the crazy negative plays and plays his game I think bama will be in this game all the way., Gonna take a gander at some props, I know I’m not laying -6, Not sure if I want bama but it then or nothing for me. I could see myself on some receiver props for both sides or the over!!
 
Alright @bones , I was able to move over most of the posts.

Due to the timeline, this thread will look like MW started it is all.

Hopefully this is what you wanted.
 
Alright @bones , I was able to move over most of the posts.

Due to the timeline, this thread will look like MW started it is all.

Hopefully this is what you wanted.
If you cud, just start it with BTB pod please and thank you and I apologize
 
I really havnt had the chance to follow smu this year, only thing I’d say is that line seems rather light considering how good tulane been and smu being without their qb, doesn’t it?
Tulane has been fine but they haven't been covering a bunch. SMU missing their QB is probably the biggest injury this weekend, could see a completely deflated SMU after that. Not that Tulane needs any of the intangibles but hard to see SMU playing their best football once the game gets going.
 
Im treating bowers as if he fine. He looked mostly like himself against vols and has had several more weeks since then, no way am I capping this with any assumption other than he 100%. Im looking at it like everyone on Uga is good to go, if it turns out they not then more power to me., Im still not interested in laying -6 vs bama. I just can’t do it! Far to much respect for saban, the defense,, and despite Milroe faults I feel like he has become incredibly comfortable in who he is. Long as he avoids the crazy negative plays and plays his game I think bama will be in this game all the way., Gonna take a gander at some props, I know I’m not laying -6, Not sure if I want bama but it then or nothing for me. I could see myself on some receiver props for both sides or the over!!
Ha, I know exactly what you mean. I made a rule about six years ago that I would never bet against Alabama again. I've come out ahead by following that rule

I'm breaking my rule this week because I see the Georgia QB as so much better. Milroe's a great runner, but I doubt he can avoid mistakes when the throws the ball against Georgia.
 
Posting Adam Kramer picks. Joe Fortenbaugh says he's betting Texas and Texas/Oklahoma state over on the theory that since it's the first game so they have no idea how the other teams will fare that Texas will run it up if they are able to

Stanford Steve—(2-4) (39-43) Three Year Record (103-79)
Michigan/Iowa o 35x
Bama +5
Michigan -22

The Bear—(1-5) (27-41) Three Year Record (98-89)
UNLV +2.5
MI/Iowa UNDER 35.5
He leans TX -15

Scott Van Pelt—(3-6) (50-59) Three Year Record (164-125)
Washington +10
Alabama (+5x
Louisville +2
Iowa +22
Pro
New Orleans +4x
Green Bay +6

Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(3-6) (57-59) (75-52)

Oregon -9x
Louisville +2x
Troy -6x
Okla State/Texas o 55x
SMU +5x

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five—(4-1) (36-33) Three Year Record (94-100)
Detroit -4x 28-20
NY Jets +1x 21-20
San Francisco -2x 30-26
LA Rams -3x 27-20
Jacksonville -8x 32-20

My Picks— (0-1) (19-19) Teasers (3-3) (22-16) Three Year Record (150-97)
Bet the following already
Texas -12x
Georgia -5
Teasers:
Texas/Georgia
Oregon -3x/Oregon-Washington u 72
N Mex St +17/TBD

Joe Fortenbaugh— (1-3) (22-22) Two Year Record (45-41)
Texas tt o 34x
Georgia/Bama o 55x
Oregon/Washington u 65x
 
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Ha, I know exactly what you mean. I made a rule about six years ago that I would never bet against Alabama again. I've come out ahead by following that rule

I'm breaking my rule this week because I see the Georgia QB as so much better. Milroe's a great runner, but I doubt he can avoid mistakes when the throws the ball against Georgia.

Just depends. Milroe great if he allowed to throw deep, it those intermediate throws where the problems come in!! The Uga kid seems pretty damn good that for sure. I can’t lay -6 against bama tho. Saban wins this game every time the face off in sec championship!! It just one these spots where if I bet bama and lose I’ll be able to sleep fine, if I bet against bama getting points and lose I’ll feel like a damn idiot!! Lol. Not saying I’m right, I honestly don’t know wtf gonna happen, I just know it be easier to live with myself betting bama as dogs!!
 
Some interesting stats: (I didn’t do the work to find these stats. A bookie friend of mine found them on a gambling site. I think he said on Action.com)

Since conference title games began dogs have gone 66-60 ATS. Just short of 53%.

In Power Five title games over the last six years dogs are 5-25 SU, 11-19 ATS, 36%.

Best title game teams ATS:
New Mexico State: 11-2 (6-1 as an underdog, covering 10 straight)
UNLV: 10-2 (5-0 as an underdog)
Oregon: 9-2-1
Miami (OH): 9-3

Worst title game teams ATS:
Georgia (4-8) and Tulane (5-7).

Since 2005 overs have gone 51.2%. The best over conference by far is the SEC where title games have gone over 13-4. The best under conferences are Mountain West (8-2) and Big 12 (9-3)

The two best under teams are Iowa (no surprise) and Tulane, both at 10-2. Tulane actually went under by an average 3 points more than Iowa.

Do revenge games matter? It doesn’t appear so. The team that lost the first game are 26-25 ATS in title game history.
 
I don’t remember if it was the BTB guys or somewhere else I heard this idea but it does make some sense to me. If you like the ducks to win and don’t mind waiting a few weeks for the payout playing Bo Nix -150 to win the heisman might not be a bad way to go about it: feel like it has to be all but a certainty Nix wins the heisman of ducks win this game doesn’t it? I’m not realky into betting this and def not on the fav but I do like the ducks a great deal and am trying to figure out some more creative ways to get down on them without having to lay -9.5 or the steep ml! Of course if I went this route ducks would prob Win a crazy defensive battle where nix throws 4-5 ints and Daniels steals the heisman! Lol., Thought that was a interesting idea tho.,


Best I’ve been able to come up with is doing some kind of teaser and I despise teasing ncaa fb, that said I feel pretty good with the idea of ducks and bama teased together. Might be wasting a few numbers teasing bama to 12 but getting them thru 7 and 10 I don’t think is all bad. I actually like bama w the +6 so love them getting double digits. That bout best I got. I suppose could tease ville up to +7.5, I can’t see fsu winning by margin without Travis but I hate ville and think they total frauds, I’ll be rooting for them just cause I don’t want noles stealing a playoff spot but don’t think I could put money on ville.
 
I don’t remember if it was the BTB guys or somewhere else I heard this idea but it does make some sense to me. If you like the ducks to win and don’t mind waiting a few weeks for the payout playing Bo Nix -150 to win the heisman might not be a bad way to go about it: feel like it has to be all but a certainty Nix wins the heisman of ducks win this game doesn’t it? I’m not realky into betting this and def not on the fav but I do like the ducks a great deal and am trying to figure out some more creative ways to get down on them without having to lay -9.5 or the steep ml! Of course if I went this route ducks would prob Win a crazy defensive battle where nix throws 4-5 ints and Daniels steals the heisman! Lol., Thought that was a interesting idea tho.,


Best I’ve been able to come up with is doing some kind of teaser and I despise teasing ncaa fb, that said I feel pretty good with the idea of ducks and bama teased together. Might be wasting a few numbers teasing bama to 12 but getting them thru 7 and 10 I don’t think is all bad. I actually like bama w the +6 so love them getting double digits. That bout best I got. I suppose could tease ville up to +7.5, I can’t see fsu winning by margin without Travis but I hate ville and think they total frauds, I’ll be rooting for them just cause I don’t want noles stealing a playoff spot but don’t think I could put money on ville.
BTB said it and a post somehwere in the collge football thread said it
 
BTB:
WEEK 13: 0-1
SEASON: 8-5
Powers' WEEK 13: 2-0 and 9-2 last 10 weeks


I'll do it as I can. Looks like they have 9 games and the best bet.
Best Bet is OVER 53 Bama vs Ga
Powers' Bet: ( I was wrong about this. His comments just indicated he took Boise). He sees nothing particular of Value in the games of non-power 5.

Oregon vs Washington +9.5/66-67 (in Las Vegas)

37 FBS receivers have 900+ receiving yds this season. Four will be in this game. Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson (Oregon) and Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk (Washington).
First Top 5 match-up btw Pac 12 teams since 1976 (my high school graduation year) when #2 UCLA lost to #3 USC. Washingto seeking first 3 game winning streak agst Oregon since late '80s. Oregon has won 8 games by 24+, second most in FBS behind MI. With Lanning is head coach they are 20-0 when allowing 30 points or less. 1-4 when they allow over 30, including their loss to Washington earlier this year, Washington has not been down more than 7 points in any game this season and trailed only in 5 games for less then 100 minutes. Deboer is 22-0 as head coach when UDUB allows less than 40 points and 1-2 if they allow over 40. Washington won the regulae season game 36-33 (if you remember the Ducks passed on ez fgs twice in that game including the last play of 1H from like the 2 yd line)

Is this line too high? Powers: "It seems like an extreme adjustment, but according to my ratings it's not....In first meeting I was on Washington side...I thought Oregon should have won and covered. Since then I have upgraded Oregon 5 points and downgraded Washington 4 points. I think I can attribute the Washington downgrade to the play of Michael Penix.....He has not played like he's healthy in last 6 games. (gives stats, including since Oregon game completing less than 60% of passes and only 12 TD passes in 6 games. 5 picks and 266 passing yds per game, more than 100 yds per game less than prior). He said their receivers, exception Odunze, have not been as good. "I am a little involved on Oregon this week. It was not such a shocking number to me."

What do you see being the key match-up? Payne: "I think Brad hit on all the key points [the line] looks a litlle nutty, I don't see it that way....[Washington's latest wins] have been a struggle. AZ State had every chance to win as a 4 TD dog. Stanford gave them trouble as a 4 TD dog. Undermanned Utah was a dog fight. Oregon State dictate4d the entire 2H and then last week the Huskies do not even come close to reaching expectations in Apple cup....A lot to do with Penix, things going on there....Basically this is an offense that has gone from being top 3 in every single category to 6 game trendline below top 25. That;s massive when you think about being a pass first outfit....its really meaningful. Oregon sdary is better than suggested, but then again they have not been tested and Jahlil Florence for Ducks seen on sideline swith crutches and Roderick Pleasant has not played last 2 games. That's how Washington is going to win the game if passing game returns to form especially with Dillon Johnson at rb not looking 100%. (then goes over Nix stats in last game on short passes not being as good as usual)...Still, Oregon should have won that game. Ducks just lost the 4th down variance battle, going 0-3 including getting stopped twice inside the 5 yd line....the last one being to salt the game late." (then says what he has said all season re Washington D line being a weakness). "The last game was 6 games into the season, off a bye with 2 weeks to rest...what's it going to look like with a short week, travel and game 13 when it comes to physicality?" "Oregon is clearly the side, but we;ve watched the line creep up.....Look ahead line was -4.5 then 7 open at 8 and now -9.5, isn't it better to bet Nix to win Heisman -150 if you think Ducks win Friday night?"
Powers' rating for Oregon is #2 behind GA.

OKState vs Texas - more than 2 TDs/55. (In Jerry World)

OKState beat Texas in one possession games in '21 and '22 in regular season; they did not play this year. 32-24 and 41-34. Last week's win for Texas was largest margin win agst Big12 since 2007.

Powers does TX Offense vs OkState Defense. He's asked what does OKSt need to do? "Pray." He then gets serious and says they need to get pressure and turnovers. Brooks is a loss for Texas at rb and he says that the path for OKSt success is possible b/c the Texas offense is "meh." He's not overly impressed with Texas and "Ewers is fine but not sure he wins you a playoff game." All in all he liked Texas O but not loved it. He then trashed OkState defense in basic metrics #116 in yds per play, #115 in yds per game, #77 in limiting scoring. In advance metrics #22 in defensice success rate, #52 in defensive epa. He noted that "Kansas and OU really lit them up thru the air. Let's be honest, Texas' receiving corp when they want to be on it's as good as it gets in the Big 12....The problem I have is I do not know what OKState team is showing up....very inconsistent." Powers says "Texas might need margin here. They play at 11;00 on Saturday and they do not know what will happen after. I factor that in with my handicap, so I agree with the money - Texas and Over here." Furhman notes that last 16 times as a dog OK State are 11-5 and won outright 9 times, including earlier this year vs OU and KState. They are 10-2-1 ATS last 13 games agst AP ranked opponents. Powers then says he bet Texas (did not say at what number) but these ATS numbers kept it fom a big wager. "Not ideal laying more than 2 TDs agst OKState."

Payne does OKSt offense vs TX defense. "Listening to you 2 talk about this game is reason 1,000,001 why sports betting is way more difficult than it should be for guys like us....its difficult b/c of Auburn vs Bama and Auburn vs NMexState...not to relive last week but OkState falls in that same bucket. We all bet OKState win total under 7 and we lost, and its a mystery as to how? Head scratcher how they are in this game... they are the luckiest team all season. If you look at every snap this season the expected win rate was 4.8 season wins. That's why game open at -11 and its now -14/15 (I am seeing -16). OKState is playing with house money, all the pressure is on Texas to win and to win with margin and we've seen Sark and Texas lay a stinker a time or 2." Payne thinks Texas can limit Ollie Gordon down to down and gives stats to support Texas run defense. He gives examples of KState and Bama that prove the need to pass,not run, agst Texas. Payne notes Texas lead corner, Ryan Moore, left Tech game, what is his status? "We all have Texas +125 to win Big12...great position to be in and I am not hedging."

Boise State vs UNLV +2.5/59 (In Vegas)
Line "has been a battle" (last I saw was 2). 7th appearance in championship for Boise with 3 wins in prior 6. Boise fired head coach and lost top receiver and then went 3-0 and 2-0 under interim head coach. This is UNLV's 1st ever appearance in championship. They lost to San Jose State in final game and were down 17-0 and lost 37-31.

Powers: "Really hard game to power rate" due to fundamental changes in both teams. He thinks that the positive change with Boise is real. He goes over the season and highlights a few plays that made all the difference in their record. "They lost by 1 to ColState on a hail mary pass last play of game, blowing a 20 pt lead with 5 minutes left. A 100 yd kickoff return on the final polay of first half agst Fresno that gave the Bulldogs momentum (he said that was one of 4-5 plays in that game). They lost at home to a final second fg by UCF, they lose to Memphis by 3 in Memphis after a blocked fg attempt and return by Memphis for a TD. You don't have to get too creative to get Boise from 7-5 to 9-3 or 10-2ish...They are only laying 2.5 to UNLV, I don't think so." In regular season Boise brings more fans than UNLV even though game is in Vegas. He does not expect a big home field advantage for UNLV game in Vegas and would not be surpised in fans are 60-40 for UNLV. My power rating favors Boise by 1. "So why do you like Boise here? Because of the maual adjustments, program is ascending, been there and done that,...very similar to the San Jose game last week where statistically Boise is better in yd per play margin, yds per game margin and the thing the market can't grasp is the SOS disparity...biggest SOS disparity of all 10 conf champ games. I don't think the models appropiately get that right on a consistent basis. I am on Boise here."

Payne: "I am interested where line goes. At 2.5 it was Boise money at 3 it was UNLV. As we sit here and record the same is going on, game went from 2, 2.5 to 3 and blasted back down to 2.5/2. You can make a case for either team. The last 3 wins by Boise agst those opponents (New Mexico, Utah State and a banged up AF) "does not completely do it for me...you could have taken SJState +3.5 in UNLV's last game which was meaningless to them and now you give them 2.5 in a game that means the world to them? Theoretically we have like a 6 point adjustment in just 7 days on UNLV. If San Jose St and Boise played now it's what pick or -1? [he asked Brad and Brad said "no Boise wud be favored by 3 or so...Boise laid 7 at home to SJState "I wud have it 3ish"]. Payne likes UNLV,coach Barry Odom (all 3 do) and he is a defensive coach with success at Arkansas with inferior talent in SEC. Boise wants to run and UNLV is in top 40 in epa per rush allowed and he believes Odom forces Taylen Green of Boise to beat him. Green only attempted 40 passes in last 3 games bc Boise was able to just hand it off in 2 games. and agst AF Green threw 2 picks on 17 attempts. "To me the biggest advantage is UNLV pass game agst Boise 2dary. UNLV when you adjust for SOS is still in top 30 in both pass success and epa. Boise State is outside top 100 defending the pass. He said this game is wonky." I can confirm Brad's side b/c I have had multiple buy orders sent to me and very respectable bettors are saying Boise is the side., but every time we get to 3 the invisible man comes out and the invisible man is hitting like 99%." "I can confirm Brad's side but I do not have a dog in the fight." Brad replies "I only have Boise only -1 on a nuetral site and it does concern me."

SMU vs Tulane -3.5/47 Tulane hosting
What is drop off for SMU w/o Preston Stone?
Brad: "I have it at a line of 3.5 and market agrees." He does not think Stone is that good. He does like SMU as a team and thought they may be best group of 5 team in nation and he really like SMU TE, "Maryland" - NFL caliber, "he's been good but not greaat." Kevin Jennings as replacement for Stone is good and has experience (cites games and drives last year) and was a state championshion in HS in Texas. He does not see a TD downgrade for SMU. "If there was one game that was lining up, it was a bet on SMU, a clearly superior team [before Stone loss]." Payne: "A really respected bettor grabbed smu +2 last week before Stone out...we were all going to bet SMU." Powers got SMU +6.5 before line corrected to +3.5. Total opened at 54.5 and now at 47 and they suggest that luster is gone on game. The battle is on the betting line with SMU getting bets at above 3.5. Questions regarding coach Fritz and his next move. (They were really not informative re their projections since Stone is now out).

Georgia vs Bama +5 to +6.5/53 in Atlanta
Kirby is 1-4 agst Saban after leading all 5. Bama has gone Over the total in 8 straight SEC title games with avg closing line of 50.6 and avg score north of 62. Tide has gone Over in 7 of last 8 games.

Should we use full system data or current form? If full season data used - favor GA. If current form - Bama has edge. Stats given on Bama's running/passing/offense/scoring. Bama O line much improved allowing only 4 sacks lat 4 weeks. Milroe with time is better and receivers improving and McCllelan at rb is good. Powers sees some concern for GA defense...teams are able to run agst them, allowing 40+ more yds than a year ago, Recent trend in last month, 166 rushing yds per game allowed. Will GA put an extra man in the box? But Milroe is best going deep. "I thought the early GA-4 was a little cheap and the GA-6.5 was getting a little expensive. on GA side." The could run Milroe 20 times. if need be?

GA offense scored on 58% of its drives agst FBS opponents behind only LSU & Oregon. All signs point Bowers and McConkey to play. Bama defense not as good as in the past. Payne: "More unknowns than any of the prior meetings." GA has not played fully competent defense yet avg Ds played outside top 80. Bama's defense not been truly tested by an offense was the Longhorns and they had their way with Bama....goes over other games and highlighted LSU until Daniels was injured. There is variance with Bama defense run defense is outside top 100 in line yds allowed but somehow in top 15 in rushing success rate allowed. Delta is far too large for Bama defense and sure enough they gave up 3.2 yds per rush before 1st contact agst Auburn. Bama defense does not dominate and thinks GA has some success down to down. Also Bama is outside top 40 in big pass provention and gave one up last week to Auburn on J Johnson TD. GA will find offensive sucess. Milroe running is likely and he has had success. GA defense has more trouble with running qbs. "At Bama +6.5 on game day you'll probably see a buy on Bama...not stun me either to see 53 is the floor on the total."

Furhman: Pace numbers do not say this will be a track meet but both offenses are efficient at moving the ball agst opponents.

Louisville vs FSU in Charlotte (did not give the line, I am seeing Ville +2 and 47.5)
Louisville off a bad loss to KY as a 7.5 favorite. FSU covered over Florida in final game to remain undefeated. Norvel was1-2 in conference title games at Memphis. Brohm 1st coach in conference history to take 2 different teams to conf title games in back to back seasons.

Powers says his power numbers oppose FSU in this game but he sounded iffy. He went over Box Score for FSU last week and noted they only had 224 of total offense and less than 100 rush yds and Florida had been allowing others yds and points to other teams [Payne later noted that FSU possessed the ball for only 8 minutes in 2H]. But he criticized Florida's play and maturity more so. He thinks Rodemaker looks better ythan he has in previous years. He did note that FSU cam back from 12 point deficit. Biggest need is for FSU O line to protect him from Ville's good pass rush. All that said "I am surprised the line punched thru 3 w/o much resistance now at 2.5"

Ville defensively has been bad, allowing 280 passing yards and 120 rushing over last 3 games and allowing 24+ in each game. Ville passing game has been poor also. Payne: "I look at this game and its one of a few times Norvel has gone into a game this season and did not have a massive advantage in coaching and scheme and adjustments. We respect the hell out of Brohm...To me, the start of the game is vital and how FSU handles that. FSU D comes out vanilla and then unleashes the real D scheme in 2H. They are the best in 2H this season and are as good as it gets, even LSU had 0 points first 28 minutes of 2h. I dont know that they can wait until 2H this game....FSU has to stop the ground game. He thinks FSU defense is rested (throughout season) and are ready. He thinks they can cause Plummer for Ville problems if they put him off schedule into known passing downs - they need to stop the run. On Ville defense vs FSU offense thinks there is a lot of variance. Ville is outside top 100 in explosive plays allowed and FSU offense is the inverse is one of 10 most explosive teams in the country. May have the situation where Ville wins 8 of 10 plays and FSU gets couple big chunk plays....last 3 weeks Ville has not looked good for 3 weeks. Jarvis Brown for Ville is a key, is he 100%? Big question is Tate Rodemaker for FSU. From what I hear internally Tate has improved dramatically in last 12-14 mos....Tate could not have been in worse poisition last week with starting field position was own 18 in 1H....The nation's perspective is irrelevant to FSU internally,they had different goals than a national championship and they have been acheiving them. WEATHER MAY BE BAD! So a lot of variance here. He wonders if bettors will wake up and say 2.5 is a little low but have not seen resistance when line evidently was 6 and has now gone to 2.5. Louisville is a better version of Florida from last week and game will be a war.

Powers says last week FSU D line popped to him, cites Fisk and then he suggest Ville defense is lacking depth. FSU may well have opportunities. Payne then says FSU D players Peyton, Lovett, Farmer, Fisk and Verse are all NFL caliber players.

Iowa vs Michign -23.5/35 in Indy
Iowa lost 42-3 2 years ago in champ game. Lowest Total ever in Conf Champ game. Basically everyone says the obvious re a 23 point favorite and a 35 point total. It's not good for the favorite:

A favorite of 10+ and 40 total [140 games] the favorite is 43% ATS
A 2 TD favorite and total of 37 or less 30% ATS [23 sample size]
A 3 TD favorie and total of 37 or less [14 times since 1980] 14% ATS at 2-12


Powers is waiting on a btter number on Iowa and then will bet them (I am seeing line lower now at +22). Payne sees money on Mich bc the West Division is "utter shit" and Iowa was on average facing the 70th ranked team each week, schedule was a cakewalk. Iowa has won with "a horseshoe stuck up their ass." Tals of fumbles last week. Of all games played last week, Iowa's was 6th unlikely. At recording the line was -24. MI is banged up and won their Super Bowl last week. MI does not need margin and win and in. But, Deacon Hill for Iowa is going to be a problem for Iowa and they literally laugh.

Payne aint taking Iowa and Brad suggest he might take them at 24.5
How i "heard" the BTB podcast.

1. Brad Powers bet Oregon and Payne leans Oregon
2. It did not seem as either would bet Texas but not confident enough to take OkState
3. Powers bet Boise -2.5. Payne esssentially disagreed but did not bet UNLV
4. They were all in on SMU until injury of Stone, but they do not think loss of Stone makes this a Tulane wager
5. Bet of week was OVER 53 in Bama v GA
6. Payne like FSU [he's a fan of the team] and sounded as if they were forced to wager it wud be FSU
7. They mocked the MI v Iowa game, but Brad showed interest in Iowa at 24.5
 
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Man I was ready to dump a bundle on SMU pre-Stone injury. I think I may still grab +3.5 though.
 
Clay Travis
WEEK 13: 8-5
SEASON: 75-84
New Mexico vs Liberty -10 WIN
All Jamey Chadwell does is win. He’s now 12-0 on the year and somehow no one is hiring him despite what he has done the past three seasons. I know New Mexico State has the most stunning win of the season — on the road at Auburn by three touchdowns two weeks ago — but Liberty wins by two touchdowns. The Flames stay scorching hot, winning by more than two touchdowns to get to 13-0.

Oregon -9.5 vs Washington LOSE
I know this is a massive number, but Washington has been playing with fire for weeks now and despite the fact that the Huskies won the earlier match up, I just think Oregon is a substantially better team now. So much so that I like the Ducks by double digits and for Bo Nix to lock up with the Heisman with a scintillating performance on a Friday night in Las Vegas.

OKSt vs Texas OVER 54.5 WIN
Mike Gundy’s team is a huge two touchdown+ underdog, but the Pokes were fortunate to win at home against BYU last week and I feel like Texas might well blow them out. But then again it’s Texas. And if there’s one thing the Longhorns have taught us over the past 15 years it’s that Texas always falls flat on its face at some point in every season. So instead of laying a ton of points and expecting a big win, I’m going to roll with the over hitting instead. I think both teams go for 24 or more and the total soars way past this number.

Boise vs UNLV +2.5 LOSE
Barry Odom’s done an incredible job with UNLV this year and I think he caps off a 9-3 season with a conference championship. I feel even better since UNLV didn’t play great last week in a loss to San Jose State. Plus, can you imagine how crazy it would be if Boise State won the conference title after firing their coach? Come on, that’s bonkers. UNLV wins outright, but take the points just to be safe.

SMU vs Tulane OVER 48.5 LOSE
Maybe I’m walking into a gambling buzzsaw here, but SMU has scored points against everyone this year, particularly down the stretch. SMU has scored 55, 69, 36, 45, 38, and 59 in the past six weeks. And you’re telling me that suddenly they aren’t going to score any points at all against Tulane? And that they aren’t going to give up many either? I just don’t see it. Especially since it’s not like Tulane has the 1985 Bears defense. Plus, Tulane is scoring points too. The over’s the play and I’m so confident in that, tap the veins boys and girls, the over is our blood bank guarantee for the week.

GA vs Bama +5.5 WIN
Maybe I’m an idiot — and certainly that has been alleged a ton over the years and there is ample evidence to support it — but Nick Saban with no one believing in his team is a recipe for gambling disaster. I’m not saying the Tide is going to win, but Alabama was fortunate to win in 2021 at Auburn and everyone thought Georgia would romp the Tide. And then Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC title game — yes, Georgia came back to win the title — but Nick Saban’s team is almost never an underdog and as good as I think Georgia is, this is a big number to need to win by, especially with all the pressure on Georgia. Give me the Tide to cover here.

MI vs Iowa Over 34.5 LOSE
Michigan is a 23-point favorite in a game with an over/under of 34.5. That means Vegas is telling us Michigan wins something like 28-3? That seems off. I think Michigan’s offense will have good success against Iowa and the pace of the game will dictate we surge past 34.5, yes, even in an Iowa game. Give me the over in the Big Ten title game.

Ville vs
FSU -2.5 WIN
This is a bet on Mike Norvell’s ability to get his team the win more than anything else. Yes, Florida State is substantially weaker without Jordan Travis at quarterback, but it just went on the road and won at Florida. Now Louisville, which hasn’t played that well down the stretch against inferior opponents, is traveling to a neutral site stadium coming off a tough loss to Kentucky and we essentially have an even number. I just feel like FSU is much better at most positions than Louisville is and that will reveal itself even with a weaker quarterback. Which is why ultimately FSU finds a way to get the win as a result. Give me the Seminoles by three or more. Plus, and this is key, FSU may go for style points if they get up, I don’t see them letting their foot off the gas since they don’t just want to win, they want to impress the committee too.

Army vs Navy UNDER 30.5
It’s a tradition, we love America at Outkick, but we always take the under in Army-Navy games.
 
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Bear Bets - here it is. Ill recap this afternoon
Bear WEEK 13: 1-5
SEASON: 29-41

Championship Picks:
UNLV +2.5
MI/Iowa UNDER 35.5
He leans TX -15

Sidekick:
Tez Johnson Over 75.5 receiving yards

 
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Me:
WEEK 13: 7-4-2
SEASON: 66-56-3


Current Picks
Oregon -9.5 LOSE 1.5 units
Bama/GA Over 54 LOSE 2 Units
Ville/FSU Under 49 WIN 1 unit [I just saw this is down to 47.5]
FSU -2 1.5 Units WIN
Texas TT Over 35.5 WIN
1 unit [had to fight every instinct to make the wager. Texas is bad in RZ. But, they can do this and may cover the game total, or come close, themselves]
Troy -4.5 WIN 1 unit (saw now -5)
Bama ML +180 WIN 1 unit (see its now +165)
Under 49.5 Bama live LOSE
MI -13 1H -110
1 unit LOSE
MI TT over 27.5
-125 LOSE 1 unit
 
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Clay Travis
WEEK 13: 8-5
SEASON: 75-84
New Mexico vs Liberty -10
All Jamey Chadwell does is win. He’s now 12-0 on the year and somehow no one is hiring him despite what he has done the past three seasons. I know New Mexico State has the most stunning win of the season — on the road at Auburn by three touchdowns two weeks ago — but Liberty wins by two touchdowns. The Flames stay scorching hot, winning by more than two touchdowns to get to 13-0.

Oregon -9.5 vs Washington
I know this is a massive number, but Washington has been playing with fire for weeks now and despite the fact that the Huskies won the earlier match up, I just think Oregon is a substantially better team now. So much so that I like the Ducks by double digits and for Bo Nix to lock up with the Heisman with a scintillating performance on a Friday night in Las Vegas.

OKSt vs Texas OVER 54.5
Mike Gundy’s team is a huge two touchdown+ underdog, but the Pokes were fortunate to win at home against BYU last week and I feel like Texas might well blow them out. But then again it’s Texas. And if there’s one thing the Longhorns have taught us over the past 15 years it’s that Texas always falls flat on its face at some point in every season. So instead of laying a ton of points and expecting a big win, I’m going to roll with the over hitting instead. I think both teams go for 24 or more and the total soars way past this number.

Boise vs UNLV +2.5
Barry Odom’s done an incredible job with UNLV this year and I think he caps off a 9-3 season with a conference championship. I feel even better since UNLV didn’t play great last week in a loss to San Jose State. Plus, can you imagine how crazy it would be if Boise State won the conference title after firing their coach? Come on, that’s bonkers. UNLV wins outright, but take the points just to be safe.

SMU vs Tulane OVER 48.5
Maybe I’m walking into a gambling buzzsaw here, but SMU has scored points against everyone this year, particularly down the stretch. SMU has scored 55, 69, 36, 45, 38, and 59 in the past six weeks. And you’re telling me that suddenly they aren’t going to score any points at all against Tulane? And that they aren’t going to give up many either? I just don’t see it. Especially since it’s not like Tulane has the 1985 Bears defense. Plus, Tulane is scoring points too. The over’s the play and I’m so confident in that, tap the veins boys and girls, the over is our blood bank guarantee for the week.

GA vs Bama +5.5
Maybe I’m an idiot — and certainly that has been alleged a ton over the years and there is ample evidence to support it — but Nick Saban with no one believing in his team is a recipe for gambling disaster. I’m not saying the Tide is going to win, but Alabama was fortunate to win in 2021 at Auburn and everyone thought Georgia would romp the Tide. And then Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC title game — yes, Georgia came back to win the title — but Nick Saban’s team is almost never an underdog and as good as I think Georgia is, this is a big number to need to win by, especially with all the pressure on Georgia. Give me the Tide to cover here.

MI vs Iowa Over 34.5
Michigan is a 23-point favorite in a game with an over/under of 34.5. That means Vegas is telling us Michigan wins something like 28-3? That seems off. I think Michigan’s offense will have good success against Iowa and the pace of the game will dictate we surge past 34.5, yes, even in an Iowa game. Give me the over in the Big Ten title game.

Ville vs FSU -2.5
This is a bet on Mike Norvell’s ability to get his team the win more than anything else. Yes, Florida State is substantially weaker without Jordan Travis at quarterback, but it just went on the road and won at Florida. Now Louisville, which hasn’t played that well down the stretch against inferior opponents, is traveling to a neutral site stadium coming off a tough loss to Kentucky and we essentially have an even number. I just feel like FSU is much better at most positions than Louisville is and that will reveal itself even with a weaker quarterback. Which is why ultimately FSU finds a way to get the win as a result. Give me the Seminoles by three or more. Plus, and this is key, FSU may go for style points if they get up, I don’t see them letting their foot off the gas since they don’t just want to win, they want to impress the committee too.

Army vs Navy UNDER 30.5
It’s a tradition, we love America at Outkick, but we always take the under in Army-Navy games.
I'm 95% certain that this hamburger doesn't know that SMU's starting QB is out in his blood bank guarantee over lolz
 
How i "heard" the BTB podcast.

1. Brad Powers bet Oregon and Payne leans Oregon
2. It did not seem as either would bet Texas but not confident enough to take OkState
3. Powers bet Boise -2.5. Payne esssentially disagreed but did not bet UNLV
4. They were all in on SMU until injury of Stone, but they do not think loss of Stone makes this a Tulane wager
5. Bet of week was OVER 53 in Bama v GA
6. Payne like FSU [he's a fan of the team] and sounded as if they were forced to wager it wud be FSU
7. They mocked the MI v Iowa game, but Brad showed interest in Iowa at 24.5


For the most part I respect Payne opinion more but powers def does more work on ncaa. Especially the group of 5 schools I would lean powers over Payne.

I’m with them I love the ducks I just don’t want to lay -9.5.

FI think Texans a good game to make some prop bets on the horns, another game I think horns obvious the spread just really big:

I have ro look more at boise/unlv, I just havnt followed the Mw as much I typically do, I’ve heard good cases for the over from various ppl I respect.

I’m totally on board w the bama:Uga over and I gotta play bama as a dog, it’s just become something I see no reason not to play, if it loses so be it, worth the bet imo:

I think ville are total frauds, been saying it all year and won’t back off now. Unfortunately I find myself rooting for them as I don’t think the committee has the guts to keep fsu out if they win. Im not interested in deserve, I just don’t think they should be in playoff without Travis!!!!!! So im left rooting for a ville team I can’t stand!!!! Lol. Not betting anything here.
 
Some interesting stats: (I didn’t do the work to find these stats. A bookie friend of mine found them on a gambling site. I think he said on Action.com)

Since conference title games began dogs have gone 66-60 ATS. Just short of 53%.

In Power Five title games over the last six years dogs are 5-25 SU, 11-19 ATS, 36%.

Best title game teams ATS:
New Mexico State: 11-2 (6-1 as an underdog, covering 10 straight)
UNLV: 10-2 (5-0 as an underdog)
Oregon: 9-2-1
Miami (OH): 9-3

Worst title game teams ATS:
Georgia (4-8) and Tulane (5-7).

Since 2005 overs have gone 51.2%. The best over conference by far is the SEC where title games have gone over 13-4. The best under conferences are Mountain West (8-2) and Big 12 (9-3)

The two best under teams are Iowa (no surprise) and Tulane, both at 10-2. Tulane actually went under by an average 3 points more than Iowa.

Do revenge games matter? It doesn’t appear so. The team that lost the first game are 26-25 ATS in title game history.
Thank you. Save for next year and update be nice
 
So I did few different things to try and manipulate the ducks line down under 7. I really be kicking myself it just turns out huskies getting all these points was the play, for a lot the season I did like the huskies better, I think they have the better coach and I kinda prefer their style of offense where they take one big shot play after another to ducks mostly dink and dunk style where 70% of nix passes don’t cross the LOS. That said I do think ducks play the better d and were mostly the better team in the 1st meeting,, Still no chance I’m laying -9.5 so this how I went about it tonight.

Ducks-6/nix ov 2.5 td passes/Franklin td
Ducks -6/Franklin ov 104 yards/Franklin td
Ducks -6/nix ov 300 yards/Franklin ov 104

Ducks -6/bama +6/ bama/Uga ov 55
 
Florida State backup QB is now listed as a game-time decision. Had a head injury last week and is still not cleared.

Miami Oh is the only other team without a starting QB as far as I can tell. At least the Miami backup has started the last few games
 
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Added Stanford Steve picks:
Michigan/Iowa o 35x
Bama +5
Michigan -22

Added Joe Fortenbaugh's picks:
Texas tt o 34x
Georgia/Bama o 55x
Oregon/Washington u 65x
 
Me:
WEEK 13: 7-4-2
SEASON: 66-56-3


Current Picks
Oregon -9.5 1.5 units
Bama/GA Over 54 2 Units
Ville/FSU Under 49 1 unit [I just saw this is down to 47.5]
FSU -2 1.5 Units
Off to a great start :sarcasm:

I added the following:
Texas TT Over 35.5 1 unit [had to fight every instinct to make the wager. Texas is bad in RZ. But, they can do this and may cover the game total, or come close, themselves]
Troy -4.5 1 unit (saw now -5)
Bama ML +180 1 unit (see its now +165)

As we have seen, my adds are not the best
 
Me:
WEEK 13: 7-4-2
SEASON: 66-56-3


Current Picks
Oregon -9.5 1.5 units
Bama/GA Over 54 2 Units
Ville/FSU Under 49 1 unit [I just saw this is down to 47.5]
FSU -2 1.5 Units
Texas TT Over 35.5 1 unit [had to fight every instinct to make the wager. Texas is bad in RZ. But, they can do this and may cover the game total, or come close, themselves]
Troy -4.5 1 unit (saw now -5)
Bama ML +180 1 unit (see its now +165)
Under 49.5 in Bama live
Add:

MI -13 1H -110 1 unit
MI TT over 27.5 -125 1 unit
 
Adding teaser:
Louisville +7/Michigan-Iowa u 42

Man I think ville is such frauds. Of course I been wrong bout them plenty so maybe I dunno wtf im taking bout! Lol. I just don’t think they good. They have barely beat bad teams, lost to bad teams. I don’t think they woulda had any chance vs Irish if it wasn’t for Nd ad scheduling like a putz and then being totally gassed in 2ns half!!

Of course I gots no clue bout this freshman noles qb, that said I think he should just close his eyes and throw it up to Wilson and Coleman cause I don’t think ville can cover either of them! I actually want ville to win, I feel bad for noles but I think the playoff should be Michigan, Washington, texas, bama, and I don’t think committee has the guts to leave out fsu if they win even tho they should!

Honestly don’t love either part the tease cause I think Michigan gonna hang bout 45 on iowa! I just need 28 to Cash but I think they live on iowa side the 50 all night and hang a big number!

That said only action I have is Michigan team total over 27.5 and acc game all I got is props on both noles wrs.

Wilson ov 56.5 yards/td/100+ rec yards for fat plus money

Coleman ov 50.5/td/100+

I think one the noles wrs has a game! Gl buddy
 
Me:
WEEK 13: 7-4-2
SEASON: 66-56-3


Current Picks
Oregon -9.5 LOSE 1.5 units
Bama/GA Over 54 LOSE 2 Units
Ville/FSU Under 49 WIN 1 unit [I just saw this is down to 47.5]
FSU -2 1.5 Units WIN
Texas TT Over 35.5 WIN
1 unit [had to fight every instinct to make the wager. Texas is bad in RZ. But, they can do this and may cover the game total, or come close, themselves]
Troy -4.5 WIN 1 unit (saw now -5)
Bama ML +180 WIN 1 unit (see its now +165)
Under 49.5 Bama live LOSE
MI -13 1H -110
1 unit LOSE
MI TT over 27.5
-125 LOSE 1 unit
Me: 5-5 (actually won some today on unposted SMU, Boise and then Troy 2H)
Season: 71-61-3
 
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