ESPN Handicapper's Picks--Week 3

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TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
The Bear—Week 3 (0-0) Season (2-3)
Boston_College at Duke – Boston_College (+6)
Miami_FL at Louisville – Miami_FL (+2.5)
Wake_Forest at NC_State – Wake_Forest (+2.5)
Syracuse at Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh (-21.5)
Navy at Tulane – Tulane (-7)
Bank Picks—Week 3 (0-0) Season (1-2)

Stanford Steve—Week 3 (0-0) Season (4-0) Best Bet (1-0)
Miami_FL at Louisville – Louisville (-135)
Wake_Forest at NC_State – Wake_Forest (+2.5) Best Bet
Navy at Tulane – Navy (+7)

Bill Trocci—Week 3 (0-0) Season (3-1)
Pittsburgh -21.5 $100
Notre Dame-26 $50
UCF -7, $100
Louisville +2.5 $50
Wake Forest +2.5 $100

Phil Steele--Week 3 (0-0) Season (2-0)
Navy/Tulane under 48.5
La Tech +5.5 v. S Miss
BC +6 v. Duke
UTSA -14.5 v. Stephen F Austin
Pro
Detroit +6 v. G Bay

Scott Van Pelt—Week 3 (0-0) Season (0-2)
Miami_FL at Louisville – Miami_FL (+2)

Joey and Jesse Locks
(not convinced on these two, but they did great last year)
Joey (22-5) last year
N Dame/USF over 48
SMU -14
Jesse (16-11) last year
Miami +2.5
Wake Forest +1

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five—Week 2 (0-0) Season (2-3)
dallas -5
Pats +4
Miami +5.5
Lions +6.5
Tampa -7.5

My Picks—Week 3 (0-0) Season (0-0)
Oklahoma State -21x (x3) bet this one last week before ppd
UCF -7x
The Ville -2x (should have bet this one ML like Stanford Steve did, but didn’t think about it)
Syracuse +21x
Leans to Georgia St, NC State, La Tech, App St, App St/Marshall over, Miami/The Ville over, but so many rumors of virus problems swirling around I’ll wait till just before kickoff on all of them
Added The Ville +2
Pro
Strong lean to Seahawks
 
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Oh nice. So glad to see Steve on Ville too!! I tried to listen to the podcast last night but fell asleep while they were yammering about the big10 or something, never heard anything about any games!! Not unusual, typically takes me 2-3 tries to hear it all!! Lol.

i went 5-0 in this thread last week! Might post some more if that ok??
 
Knamelis said:
Seeing Wake as his best bet...that teams getting a little trendy on here and with those listed above
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oh, guess I’m misreading it. Hard to tell cause It shows wake then another line for best bet, then navy underneath it. Either it little confusing the way Tahoe posted it or I’m a idiot. Lol
 
Damn, bear and Steve going h2h on several. Looks like bear on canes., can’t wait to try to listen to podcast again tonight! Should be good with all that disagreement!!
 
Knamelis said:
Seeing Wake as his best bet...that teams getting a little trendy on here and with those listed above
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Wake does feel pretty trendy, ive seen a lot of love for them around, I’ve heard few ppl say they think wrong team favored. I don’t have much opinion on it, I do think it odd that it seems lot of ppl giving them credit for covering vs clemson. I don’t recall thinking they looked real impressive and all their points came after tigers emptied the bench didn’t they?
 
2daBank said:
Wake does feel pretty trendy, ive seen a lot of love for them around, I’ve heard few ppl say they think wrong team favored. I don’t have much opinion on it, I do think it odd that it seems lot of ppl giving them credit for covering vs clemson. I don’t recall thinking they looked real impressive and all their points came after tigers emptied the bench didn’t they?
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Will have to go back and dig as I didn’t watch any part of that game last week ...I can already see myself playing NC St when they flip to +1 on Saturday...just an old stubborn contrarian play
 
Knamelis said:
Will have to go back and dig as I didn’t watch any part of that game last week ...I can already see myself playing NC St when they flip to +1 on Saturday...just an old stubborn contrarian play
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I think it either NCst Or nothing for me far as side but I dunno yet. VC does have a good write up bout this one, check it out.

Im sure everyone looking at wake having a edge playing last week which they probably do, just not sure how much of a edge getting beat up by Clemson gives you? lol. Just getting out there and getting reps I’m sure helps, I just don’t know how much?
 
Surely one the smart guys around here has some numbers for teams playing their 2nd game vs a team playing 1st game?!??!??
 
2daBank said:
I think it either NCst Or nothing for me far as side but I dunno yet. VC does have a good write up bout this one, check it out.

Im sure everyone looking at wake having a edge playing last week which they probably do, just not sure how much of a edge getting beat up by Clemson gives you? lol. Just getting out there and getting reps I’m sure helps, I just don’t know how much?
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FWIW CrimsonK has a good write up on his Twitter, he is also on Wake ML, +, and he also likes over.
 
I had the wake/Clemson game on a laptop or tv for most of the 1st half but I’d be lying if I said I paid close attention. Keeps surprising me when I read someone I respect saying wake D looked good! Feel like I musta been watching a different game which is incredibly possible! Lol
 
Knamelis said:
I don’t do twitter either, but I found out you can go to someone’s page and read their ish without having an account
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ah, now that you mention it think I recall doing that to find out if roof was opened or not in some stadium.

How would I go about reading his stuff? Even tho I despise the idea of even going to that site, pretty sure at this point my boycott isn’t hurting them!!!! Lmfao
 
TahoeLegend said:
I guess Colin quit making college picks, so unless someone heard him make them this week I'll take that off
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I wanna say he didn’t start those till little ways into the season last year? He also seemed to mostly pick the bigger games so he might just be waiting for some marquee matchups.
 
2daBank said:
Wake does feel pretty trendy, ive seen a lot of love for them around, I’ve heard few ppl say they think wrong team favored. I don’t have much opinion on it, I do think it odd that it seems lot of ppl giving them credit for covering vs clemson. I don’t recall thinking they looked real impressive and all their points came after tigers emptied the bench didn’t they?
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I thought they looked much better than last year. Hartman's just as good as Newman ever was. They had a lot of drops, dropped a TD pass or two in the 1H. Then again, Clemson was missing both starting CB's and DE's against Wake, plus Skalski missed the 1H (targeting v. LSU). I felt fortunate to cash my 1H bet on Clemson. It all came down to a blocking TE having to make a first-class catch in the EZ at the end of the 2Q, and ol' JC Chalk was up to the challenge.

Remember, State ended the season on an 0-6 SU & ATS run (losing by an avg of 24.5 SU and 15.4 ATS), and those were the 6 games that this year's QB, Leary, was the first-stringer.
 
So far for me:

liberty+14
Ville -2.5
Cuse/pitt under 51
Ull -15.5
Wake/nc st under 54

I was very torn between laying the 21.5 with pitt and that under. I jus can’t see cuse scoring much here so the only fear I have Is pitt hanging another huge number, gonna go out on a limb and assume cuse defense has to be better than Austin peay tho!!
 
2daBank said:
So far for me:

liberty+14
Ville -2.5
Cuse/pitt under 51
Ull -15.5
Wake/nc st under 54

I was very torn between laying the 21.5 with pitt and that under. I jus can’t see cuse scoring much here so the only fear I have Is pitt hanging another huge number, gonna go out on a limb and assume cuse defense has to be better than Austin peay tho!!
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Great number in Pitt total, I’m seeing 49
 
Yeah, this Wake - NC State game is pretty intriguing and it is also intrigues me that so many are on one side of it enough to release it as one of their favorite games. I get that the slate is thin pickings, but still.

WF has won 3 straight vs them (44-10, 27-23, 30-24). That 27-23 was in Raleigh on Thursday night and NCSt led 23-13 but Newman led them back to win with :30 left (credit PS's book for the history). WF has not won 4 in a row in the series since 1951-54!

Phil does have NCSt as his 4th most improved team in the country. NCSt is 6-1 in openers under Doeren BUT all 6 of those wins were as DD favs vs the likes of LaTech, GaSo, Troy, W&M, James Madison and ECU. The lone loss was vs South Carolina 2017 neutral Pack was upset laying 6.

We know they had poor QB play in their second half season slump last year, but Pack also had a ton of attrition on D, specifically at DB where their top 4 DBs were all out at the same time during a stretch. Speaking of stretch NCSt has 6 CBs that are 6'0 or taller...Dunlap 6'3", Smith 6'3", Battle 6' 2" [although returning starter 6'0" Ingram still out recovering from '19 injury]

Last year WF beat UNC, Duke and NCSt and proclaimed themselves "Big Four" Champs. They even had rings made up to commemorate the made-up championship. But it says they are pretty proud of it and Deac will want to continue that. And NCSt I'm sure is tired of losing to them.

Note Hartman has never played vs NCSt, Newman was the QB the last two years.

There will be no fans at Carter-Finley except for very very minimal family.

WF played better than people expected last week? I mean did they, Clemson was more methodical with their drives, just chipping it down the field, no big plays (9, 9, 10, 10 play drives on the Tiger's first 4 scoring drives) - is that a product of good WF or was it something with some early season Clemson uncertainty at WR and OL learning curve? It was 27-0 HT with Clemson owning a 19-4 FD edge. So it's Clemson and it's WF. Not implying that WF should've been playing toe to toe with them, and we can see after 1 half of football, WF wasn't. I just think people are giving WF credit for just simply not getting blown out, but they actually were getting blown out...37-3 before going 37-13 Final. Clemson could've made that score look worse if they wanted to.

I don't know, but I am very much excited for the opportunity to watch this game. I would lean NCSt, hardest part is trusting their QB play. Seems like WF in line to regress this year and NCSt had 5 straight winning seasons until last year's 4-8 season.
 
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Knamelis said:
Great number in Pitt total, I’m seeing 49
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Really? I just got it earlier, started going up everywhere this afternoon. I either just got really lucky when I happened to play it or you might wanna look around. (My local actually back down to 50 now). I certainly don’t wanna post any numbers that ain’t been available but I got with him and then also the contest i play in had that when I posted it also so figured it was widely available.
 
s--k said:
Yeah, this Wake - NC State game is pretty intriguing and it is also intrigues me that so many are on one side of it enough to release it as one of their favorite games. I get that the slate is thin pickings, but still.

WF has won 3 straight vs them (44-10, 27-23, 30-24). That 27-23 was in Raleigh on Thursday night and NCSt led 23-13 but Newman led them back to win with :30 left (credit PS's book for the history). WF has not won 4 in a row in the series since 1951-54!

Phil does have NCSt as his 4th most improved team in the country. NCSt is 6-1 in openers under Doeren BUT all 6 of those wins were as DD favs vs the likes of LaTech, GaSo, Troy, W&M, James Madison and ECU. The lone loss was vs South Carolina 2017 neutral Pack was upset laying 6.

We know they had poor QB play in their second half season slump last year, but Pack also had a ton of attrition on D, specifically at DB where their top 4 DBs were all out at the same time during a stretch. Speaking of stretch NCSt has 6 CBs that are 6'0 or taller...Dunlap 6'3", Smith 6'3", Battle 6' 2" [although returning starter 6'0" Ingram still out recovering from '19 injury]

Last year WF beat UNC, Duke and NCSt and proclaimed themselves "Big Four" Champs. They even had rings made up to commemorate the made-up championship. But it says they are pretty proud of it and Deac will want to continue that. And NCSt I'm sure is tired of losing to them.

Note Hartman has never played vs NCSt, Newman was the QB the last two years.

There will be no fans at Carter-Finley except for very very minimal family.

WF played better than people expected last week? I mean did they, Clemson was more methodical with their drives, just chipping it down the field, no big plays (9, 9, 10, 10 play drives on the Tiger's first 4 scoring drives) - is that a product of good WF or was it something with some early season Clemson uncertainty at WR and OL learning curve? It was 27-0 HT with Clemson owning a 19-4 FD edge. So it's Clemson and it's WF. Not implying that WF should've been playing toe to toe with them, and we can see after 1 half of football, WF wasn't. I just think people are giving WF credit for just simply not getting blown out, but they actually were getting blown out...37-3 before going 37-13 Final. Clemson could've made that score look worse if they wanted to.

I don't know, but I am very much excited for the opportunity to watch this game. I would lean NCSt, hardest part is trusting their QB play. Seems like WF in line to regress this year and NCSt had 5 straight winning seasons until last year's 4-8 season.
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I agree with Vc on this one, feels like a game the defenses probably outshine the offenses most the night. Under makes way more sense to me than playing a side. Totally agree with you about the credit wake getting im not sure they deserve.
 
s--k said:
Woke up this morning...and WF favored -1 now.
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i see liberty up to freaking 15.5 some places. I got ull at right time cause it back up. Both totals dropping this morning. I dunno how I feel about any of it, I’ve never thought line moves meant much in way of what gonna happen on the field.
 
2daBank said:
i see liberty up to freaking 15.5 some places. I got ull at right time cause it back up. Both totals dropping this morning. I dunno how I feel about any of it, I’ve never thought line moves meant much in way of what gonna happen on the field.
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It's just all part of the lead up til kick off. It's like Bob Dylan said "oh the lines they are a changin' "
 
s--k said:
It's just all part of the lead up til kick off. It's like Bob Dylan said "oh the lines they are a changin' "
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I remember a few years back this crap started happening where every mlb close I crushed by 20 cents or more was losing every freaking time to the point I stopped bettong openers. Lol. Obviously it different w money lines cause not points involved potentially changing outcome. That just when I came to conclusion fuxk worrying bout what these lines do. When I see a number or price I like I take it and forget it, beats the hell out of driving myself crazy over moves we usually have no idea why they moving. Outside injuries or something tangible I just assume it money and that money is wrong as often the rest of us!’ Lol
 
Now I'm an even stronger lean to NC St, but I have all day to ponder this one. Maybe it WILL go to 3.

And I like the reasoning all you guys have on the under. I swore off unders forever and I don't think I've picked one since, but the under looks good in this one.

Passing on Georgia State, too many rumors about covid guys sitting out. Same with La Tech. It's hard to get answers because most coaches are now withholding any info about players in or out because of the virus
 
TahoeLegend said:
Now I'm an even stronger lean to NC St, but I have all day to ponder this one. Maybe it WILL go to 3.

And I like the reasoning all you guys have on the under. I swore off unders forever and I don't think I've picked one since, but the under looks good in this one.

Passing on Georgia State, too many rumors about covid guys sitting out. Same with La Tech. It's hard to get answers because most coaches are now withholding any info about players in or out because of the virus
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there a really good chance I end up on ncst as well if it gets up to 3. I hate playing side and total but I’m also a sucker for getting plus money on a team books opened as favs!
 
Ville is freaking dogs now.. glad I got the best of that line! Lmfao. Am I way off on this game? After all pretty sure I loved ville last year and canes smoked them! Lol. I really feel like some revenge coming tho!
 
2daBank said:
Ville is freaking dogs now.. glad I got the best of that line! Lmfao. Am I way off on this game?
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If you are you have company. That was the first bet I took this week and I figured the line would go the other way.

I just took two more units on The Ville at +2.

I guess every public handicapper in the business is on Miami and Wake because the line just keeps moving toward those two
 
TahoeLegend said:
If you are you have company. That was the first bet I took this week and I figured the line would go the other way.

I just took two more units on The Ville at +2.

I guess every public handicapper in the business is on Miami and Wake because the line just keeps moving toward those two
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I added some ville +108 or whatever it was. Fuck’em, I ain’t scared. Liberty went up to +15.5 this morning and ya see how that went :). I was scratching my head same damn way on that one! Lol
 
I don’t love ncaa teasers but wanted to take advantage of those points in ville and nc st game so I did a ville+8/nc st +7.5 2 teamer. We see how it goes, in general I don’t think points valuable enough to tease ncaa, sometimes I do 5-7-8 teamer for fun but rarely do I play any like this.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t love ncaa teasers but wanted to take advantage of those points in ville and nc st game so I did a ville+8/nc st +7.5 2 teamer. We see how it goes, in general I don’t think points valuable enough to tease ncaa, sometimes I do 5-7-8 teamer for fun but rarely do I play any like this.
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I like that bet. I thought about doing the same or just betting a parlay, but decided to pass on NC State. I like them, but when every good capper in the world is going against them I get the feeling there must be something I've over looked or don't know about
 
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