ESPN Handicappers' Picks--Week 15

About 75% of handicapping this week is trying to guess who wants to play. Lots of coaches and players are worn down by the season and ready to pack it in.

Arizona looks like the last thing they want to do is hit or get hit tonight and I see Utah State opted out because they said they didn't like what the president said about the interim coach. Sounds like an excuse from a bunch of guys who are worn down from getting pounded every week and had enough
 
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The SJ State win means they are in the MW title game and the fact they beat Nevada means Boise is automatically in no matter what happens in their game against Wyoming.

So Boise is laying double digits on the road in a meaningless game with the conference title game on deck.

That could mean Boise comes out flat, but over the last few years I've noticed good teams come out on fire in that situation.

Last year all Power 5 teams in the title game covered their last game by double digits, but not sure what happened in the Group of 5 games
 
TahoeLegend said:
The SJ State win means they are in the MW title game and the fact they beat Nevada means Boise is automatically in no matter what happens in their game against Wyoming.

So Boise is laying double digits on the road in a meaningless game with the conference title game on deck.

That could mean Boise comes out flat, but over the last few years I've noticed good teams come out on fire in that situation.

Last year all Power 5 teams in the title game covered their last game by double digits, but not sure what happened in the Group of 5 games
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Interesting Bosie down to -9 1/2 overnight...
 
Anybody in here looked at UH/Memphis?

I like a side and wanted any thoughts you might have
 
TahoeLegend said:
The SJ State win means they are in the MW title game and the fact they beat Nevada means Boise is automatically in no matter what happens in their game against Wyoming.

So Boise is laying double digits on the road in a meaningless game with the conference title game on deck.

That could mean Boise comes out flat, but over the last few years I've noticed good teams come out on fire in that situation.

Last year all Power 5 teams in the title game covered their last game by double digits, but not sure what happened in the Group of 5 games
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I don’t trust Wyoming at all. Make sure to check their qb situation as well, they might be on their 3rd stringer today. God I love that San Jose st team! They have made me so much money the last few years!!! It be awesome if we get a favorable line against boise! It clear a lot of ppl don’t understand how good sjst is, I couldn’t believe how much that line shifted to Nevada yesterday!
 
bones said:
Anybody in here looked at UH/Memphis?

I like a side and wanted any thoughts you might have
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I was kinda surprised when I saw houston -5 but honestly I don’t know much bout houston this year as they just havnt been a team I followed much. Memphis def down from the Norvell years, sorry I don’t have much on that game. What you thinkng?
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Phil Steele picks
Army/Navy u 38
Baylor +5.5
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I’m usually all over the dog and under in the army/navy Game but I don’t like navy this year and they put the total on the most common number in this series, they have hit 38 on the dot in 3 of the last 6 matchups! That also the highest number they have gotten to in some years! Despite not liking navy scared to play fav cause how these teams have looked coming into this game rarely matters! Not something I do real often but I was thinking bout a army-1/u44 teaser? Prob be safe to tease navy up to 2 tds as well.
 
bones said:
Anybody in here looked at UH/Memphis?

I like a side and wanted any thoughts you might have
Click to expand...

Houston might be a little thin on DL depending on a couple questionable guys. LB is out first half for targeting.

Stevenson questionable for UH? Not sure, he hasn't played in a while.

The line is pretty messed up if you ask me. If we use a 2 point home field for this year if HF means less (UH home fans turnout was pitiful vs USF)...that would make Houston -9 home vs Memphis? Maybe. I just have a hard time seeing that. Perhaps I am not properly accounting for the slide Memphis is on (Navy & Tulane). Houston not often known for defense, why wouldn't I expect White to have some good numbers in his finale?
 
s--k said:
Houston might be a little thin on DL depending on a couple questionable guys. LB is out first half for targeting.

Stevenson questionable for UH? Not sure, he hasn't played in a while.

The line is pretty messed up if you ask me. If we use a 2 point home field for this year if HF means less (UH home fans turnout was pitiful vs USF)...that would make Houston -9 home vs Memphis? Maybe. I just have a hard time seeing that. Perhaps I am not properly accounting for the slide Memphis is on (Navy & Tulane). Houston not often known for defense, why wouldn't I expect White to have some good numbers in his finale?
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pretty much my thoughts on the spread. Def surprised me when I saw it.
 
2daBank said:
God I love that San Jose st team! They have made me so much money the last few years!!!
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Same here. I'm 4-0 on them this year and I'll take them anytime. They have one of the best D-lines in the country and they just beat people down.

I didn't even know the line moved until I read it on here so I took them again with the points. I like Nevada too and was 3-0 on them, but they have no business giving points to San Jose State
 
TahoeLegend said:
Same here. I'm 4-0 on them this year and I'll take them anytime. They have one of the best D-lines in the country and they just beat people down.

I didn't even know the line moved until I read it on here so I took them again with the points. I like Nevada too and was 3-0 on them, but they have no business giving points to San Jose State
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I thought for sure sjst had to have a outbreak or something, lol. Once I couldn’t find anything I wasn’t worried. Appears they still not getting the respect they deserve! Hopefully that continues and we get plus money vs boise, I can’t imagine that happen tho.
 
Did nash play any last night or was it all starkel? I feel asleep right after sjst scored to start 2nd half.
 
2daBank said:
Did nash play any last night or was it all starkel?
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All Starkle.

Got another Alabama first half win. I don't even make first half bets, but started doing it when you were talking about it and I think this is fourth week in a row I've won on them
 
I like the looks of S Diego State and Virginia and Hawaii in the later games.

S Diego State has a crap offense which is trouble against a high scoring team, but a good D and BYU has to be flat this week for a game that means nothing to them. That line is up to 17 now.

I've won every time I've bet against V Tech this year, but don't really have a feel for that game other than I like to bet Virginia and love to bet against V Tech. Wondering if maybe the over is the play

Looks like a great spot for Hawaii to me, but hate to lay that many points

Anyone have a feel for any of them?
 
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2daBank said:
Hopefully that continues and we get plus money vs boise, I can’t imagine that happen tho.
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I'm sure SJ State will get points unless Boise lays an egg against Wyoming. That Boise name is too big in the public mind and if SJS wound up getting a FG from Nevada I'll be shocked if they don't get more than a FG against Boise

They just put up a line for Coastal Carolina, ULL. C Carolina -4x. My first instinct is to take the points in that one
 
They just put up a line for Coastal Carolina, ULL. C Carolina -4x. My first instinct is to take the points in that one
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm sure SJ State will get points unless Boise lays an egg against Wyoming. That Boise name is too big in the public mind and if SJS wound up getting a FG from Nevada I'll be shocked if they don't get more than a FG against Boise

They just put up a line for Coastal Carolina, ULL. C Carolina -4x. My first instinct is to take the points in that one
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hope you right. Remember books did open sjst favs tho, dumb money drove them to dogs!! Lol. Boise name is strong but I can’t imagine it being more than 3ish. It not played on the smurf turf is it?

I lean to laffy taffy as well. They won’t get bullied like byu was. The 1st meeting was super close. Anything more than a fg feels generous to me.

I saw the look ahead for tulsa/cincy was 14.5! Give me tulsa all day.
 
So my acc for the day is canes-3 and uva ml (fuck the points).

feel like canes gotta be the right side just cause Unc don’t play a lick of defense. In a game that most likely gonna be a shootout give me the team who can get some stops!! Just look at some the point totals Unc has allowed vs middling acc teams, not a good sign imo.

I really don’t understand why uva dogs? They have looked the much better team the last month or so. Matchup wise think big edge to uva cause their weakness is pass defense, uva run defense has been pretty stout. I don’t think Hokies will be able to exploit the pass d much, especially if hooker doesn’t play. Not sure which qb they gonna go with but after yanking hooker early last week kinda seems like him and coach not on same page, I don’t think burmiester is any good so think that be a mistake but good for us!!! On the other side hokies defense been terrible, Armstrong has been playing pretty good qb for uva so I don’t think scoring be a problem. Everything points to uva winning this game for the second year in a row (I did get creamed on Hokies last year! Lol).
 
2daBank said:
I saw the look ahead for tulsa/cincy was 14.5! Give me tulsa all day.
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13x is what my guy is showing. Too me it's either Cincinnati or pass. Tulsa is just too quirky for me.

N Carolina was the first pick I made this week. I don't trust Miami. I did add the over in that game as the first half of a parlay and I'll figure out the second team later
 
TahoeLegend said:
13x is what my guy is showing. Too me it's either Cincinnati or pass. Tulsa is just too quirky for me.

N Carolina was the first pick I made this week. I don't trust Miami. I did add the over in that game as the first half of a parlay and I'll figure out the second team later
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well you nailed that. Didn’t think I have to worry bout a no show in that game. Canes “effort” was pathetic at best. Bout biggest I can recall losing a bet by, lol. Hopefully I get a little back, I was betting night games and saw I could get unc-20 live so took a little, hopefully don’t get double fucked but I doubt it since Miami doesn’t seem to give a shit, heartless fucks.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Know how you feel. I'm on Baylor and it was a slaughter from the first play. 42-3 and a couple of minutes to go so it may get worse
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pretty clear there some teams totally disinterested in these games. Never would have guessed it happen w a one loss team playing for a New Years 6 bowl but once unc punched canes in the mouth they folded like some straight bitches.

shit hard to predict cause if ya woulda asked me before kick I’d have said it was prob more likely okie state woulda been the ones who didn’t care with the opt outs and apparent chemistry issues there. The defense has played hard all year but not so sure the offense has stayed interested every week.
 
Lines on conference title games have jumped around a little after yesterdays games. I bet two last week and both moved a FG

Took N dame +7x and that is now Clemson -10x, 11 in some places. Looks like it may keep going up so think I'll take N Dame again when it gets as high as it looks like it will go

Took Alabama at -14x, it's up to -17x now. I still like it at the figure, but don't know if I'll add another unit

Oklahoma -6. I liked Iowa State at +4x, so like them even better at this number. Won't pull the trigger for a few days to see what the line does, but lean Iowa State

Ohio State -20x, 21 here and there. Don't have a feel for this one. If I had to bet it I'd take Ohio State on general principles, but I never get any Northwestern game right whether I bet on them or against them

Cincinnati -15, 15x at one spot. I like Cincinnati, but not at this number. Cincinnati is predictable, you know what to expect. but no one, including the coaching staff and players, knows what Tulsa will do from one possession to the next

Coastal Carolina -4 v ULL. I like both these teams and the line looks right on the money to me. C Carolina has the best D and beat ULL at Ull by a FG during the season. Probably pass on this one

No line yet that I can find on Boise, S J State. Rumors about the SJS coach interviewing for other jobs may be a factor. I'm 4-0 on SJ State this year so lean to the Spartans

Another game I think may be a good opportunity is Texas A&M at Tennessee. Lots of talk and big push from SEC conference and media to promote aTm as a playoff team so the conference wants this game played. If it is I see 100% motivation for the Aggies, zero for Tennessee. Opening line was -13, now -8. I don't trust aTm as a cover team under normal conditions, but this game may be the exception

Don't see a line on Buffalo/Ball State yet. I love Buffalo, but the line may be too high
 
No line yet that I can find on Boise, S J State. Rumors about the SJS coach interviewing for other jobs may be a factor. I'm 4-0 on SJ State this year so lean to the Spartans
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The kind of character he seems to have and what is on the line, I'd be shocked if he wasn't devoting 100% to this game. Maybe he lets his agent field some Q&As, anything else with this on deck would surprise. This is on his resume and career accomplishment record too. Beating Boise for MWC. That's all there has to be this week.
 
s--k said:
Tahoe's world we're just living in it. Haha
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no doubt. I do enjoy this thread and talking all the games with ya’ll tho! Just sucks ive kinda fell off a cliff the last few weeks! Well last week wasn’t terrible percentage wise but stepped way to far out on BYU which really killed my week. This past week was my worst of the season, feel like there just teams who appear to have lost interest. I fear bowls gonna be tough this season.
 
So far this what my card looking like:

AF/army under 37, Just a must bet imo.

San Jose st +7 (bought the hook) pretty sure I’ll be on the money line as well, just bought hook cause tough to take 6.5 when 7 so close! Lol.

Tulsa/cincy un47. One my illinios square books had it this high so despite not loving playing these games with the teams playing very little of late im ok wit total. I feel pretty good saying cincy scores low-mid 20s. 28 the high side for them imo. Not as sure bout what tulsa can score but I think it take everything they got to hit 17, by my math anything higher than 45 worth a bet!!

Ball st/Buffalo over 67. Tailing Mars on this one, trust his Mac opinion as much as anyone’s and he said he expects 80 points in this one!! Good enough for me!!

im still torn between usc-3 and over which is creeping up so need to get on it before Friday if I go that route. With ducks lack of pass rush I think Slovis and company should hang at least 34 and that the low side imo. For all ducks struggles they still average a elite 7.1 ypp! Against a usc defense who gets gashed in the run game and has allowed 27 or more to every offense with a pulse hard not to expect ducks to reach 31 themselves! Im open to suggestions on which better usc or over!!!

Other leans:

Mizzou-1.., really been impressed with coach drink who just landed a top 20 recruiting class which the best class tigers have ever brought in!! I was bummed how they let that Uga game get away from them after hanging for the entire 1st half but this a big step down and think he have his kids back up for this one. Finishing with a winning record is a big deal for this program on the rise imo. Messy st doesn’t have the ability to pound it down tigers throats and think mizzou pass d be up for the challenge!! One coach was absolutely the right hire, the other who knows?

u la la +3.5. They gave coastal everything they wanted in 1st meeting, matching score for score in every qrtr until being edged out by a fg., I suppose coastal might just have that team of destiny thing going for them and they have burnt me a few times this month but imo ull has the better roster, qbs a toss up but when Levi Lewis gets out and looks to run he a huge weapon!! Both teams ran for over 2 bills the 1st meeting, ull sports the better d far as opp yards per play. Coastal defense better getting off the field on 3rd downs. Honestly I think these teams are incredibly equal so getting the hook seems big here. I could maybe get talked off this if anyone wants to try and sell me that coastal the right side?
 
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