ESPN Handicappers' Picks--Week 15

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Both pointed out on the podcast they had not made final decisions yet, but both thought they would go with these picks. Both lean Navy, neither one is making it a definite pick. Discusses briefly covid issues may force cancellation of Okla/W Virginia and Rugers/Maryland. Steve expects Bama to call off the dogs fairly early v. Arkansas but still likes the over


The Bear—Week 15 (0-0) Season (23-18)
Mississippi State +7
UCLA +3
Bear’s Bank Picks— Week 15 (0-0) Season (20-18)

Stanford Steve— Week 15 (0-0) Season (29-23) Best Bet (6-5)
Az State-11.5 (Steve said, "I'm doing something I shouldn't do, lay double digits in a rivalry game)
San Jose State -2.5
Bama.Arkansas o 68

Bill Trocci— Week 15 (0-0) Season (38-25)
Colorado +2
Georgia -13
Miami -3
Iowa +1
USC -2.5

Phil Steele-- Week 15 (0-0) Season (25-37)
Army/Navy u 38
Baylor +5.5

Scott Van Pelt— Week 15 (0-0) Season (38-35)
Duke +5
Troy +13.5
Missouri +13
San Diego State +19
La Tech -21.5
Pro
NYG (+2.5)
Miami (+7)
Denver (+3)

Joey and Jesse Virtual Locks
Joey (22-5 last year) Week 15 (0-0) Season (12-10)
N Caro/Miami o 69.5
Georgia.Mizzou o 534.5
Jesse (16-11 last year) Week 15 (0-0) Season (11-10)
Alabama (-32)
USC (-3)

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 14 (0-0) Season (27-31)
Tenn (-7.5)
Mia (+7)
NYG (+2.5)
Buff (-2)
Cleve (+2.5)

My Picks— Week 15 (0-0) Season (42-26)
Miss State +7 (saw 7x early, but can't get it now)
North Carolina +3x
San Jose State -2x
Baylor +5x
Alabama -18 first half

Strong lean Mississippi State+. Washington St+, Lean Wyoming+, Baylor+, North Carolina+, Virginia+, all home dogs except N Carolina. Only favorite I like so far is San Jose State. Decided against Washington State and Wyoming. I like Wyoming at home in most cases, but something tells me to pass on them
 
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Two good Mountain West games this week and both have conference title game implications. I like San Jose State and slight lean to Wyoming

Here's what's on the line for the games

If San Jose State defeats Nevada on Friday and Boise State beats Wyoming, the Spartans and Broncos would face off in the title game on Dec. 19.

· If San Jose State beats Nevada and Boise State loses to Wyoming, the Spartans would claim the top spot but still face the Broncos. That’s because Boise State would have one conference loss to Nevada’s two.

· If Nevada beats San Jose State and Boise State beats Wyoming, the Spartans would miss out on the championship game. That’s because Boise State would be the lone undefeated team in the conference, and Nevada’s head-to-head matchup with fellow one-loss team San Jose State would tilt the tiebreaker the Wolf Pack’s way.

· If Nevada beats San Jose State and Wyoming beats Boise State — and all contenders finish with one loss — the teams with the highest winning percentage would go to the championship game. This is where a more complete schedule could boost some teams over others. Nevada at 7-1 (.875) would face off against San Jose State at 5-1 (.833). And Boise State at 4-1 (.800) would miss out, with the lowest win percentage of the three.

And one additional factor--San Jose State is the home team, but the game will be played in the UNLV stadium. SJ State has been living in Las Vegas the last few weeks because of covid restrictions in California
 
How was the pod this week? Worth listening to? I’m sure I’ll have it on tonight when I go to bed.
 
Why the hell Steve on Gtech? I grabbed pitt -6.5 the other day. I just don’t think tech will be able to do much offensively vs that Pitt front 7. Assuming Pitt will take away the run game and be able to pressure Simms which outta lead to turnovers. I made the total several points lower (51 was my absolute high side) but Pitt been over cashing machines so while normally I’d be on that under think it a pass for me. Another thing, Pitt got a scheduled bye week while tech on a short week and in midst of 3 games in 13 days. This game determines whether Pitt has a winning season so think it big for them! I just don’t see the angle for tech at all. Am I missing something?
 
I like San Jose st to but if ya lije need to get on it as I see it creeping up over -3 at lot of places. Very excited for this Friday night matchup!! Ya know I have loved sjst all year!! My only concern is same as last week, not sure how much sjst been able to practice and having to move their home games, believe this one being played in Vegas. Sjst pass rush is the difference I think.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Two good Mountain West games this week and both have conference title game implications. I like San Jose State and slight lean to Wyoming

Here's what's on the line for the games

If San Jose State defeats Nevada on Friday and Boise State beats Wyoming, the Spartans and Broncos would face off in the title game on Dec. 19.

· If San Jose State beats Nevada and Boise State loses to Wyoming, the Spartans would claim the top spot but still face the Broncos. That’s because Boise State would have one conference loss to Nevada’s two.

· If Nevada beats San Jose State and Boise State beats Wyoming, the Spartans would miss out on the championship game. That’s because Boise State would be the lone undefeated team in the conference, and Nevada’s head-to-head matchup with fellow one-loss team San Jose State would tilt the tiebreaker the Wolf Pack’s way.

· If Nevada beats San Jose State and Wyoming beats Boise State — and all contenders finish with one loss — the teams with the highest winning percentage would go to the championship game. This is where a more complete schedule could boost some teams over others. Nevada at 7-1 (.875) would face off against San Jose State at 5-1 (.833). And Boise State at 4-1 (.800) would miss out, with the lowest win percentage of the three.

And one additional factor--San Jose State is the home team, but the game will be played in the UNLV stadium. SJ State has been living in Las Vegas the last few weeks because of covid restrictions in California
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oh cool. That solves my question/worry bout sjst practicing! Thanks. Love that team! lol.

I just don’t trust Wyoming but I have to look deeper into that one.
 
When they released their official picks Bear stuck with what he gave out on the podcast, Steve dropped his G Tech and Texas picks, added Bama/Arkansas over
 
I don’t hate the asu play but have same trepidation as him about laying that kind of number in a rivalry game, just not my style. I’d have been interested in zona if they had their qb but I don’t think he playing. Easy pass.
 
Pulled the trigger on:
Miss State +7 ( saw 7x early, but can't get it now)
North Carolina +3x
San Jose State -2x
 
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2daBank said:
Sounds like he making the same case we have had to play bama 1st half all year
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Hard to make sense of Steve's bet on the over on the Bama game because he talked for five minutes about how if there is a game this year where Bama may come out flat it's this one. Then he said he expected Saben to call off the dogs early to make sure all the starters are healthy for next week, Then at the end he said he liked the over.

I agree Saban will pull the studs as soon as he thinks it's safe

What are you thinking about Bama first half?
 
TahoeLegend said:
Hard to make sense of Steve's bet on the over on the Bama game because he talked for five minutes about how if there is a game this year where Bama may come out flat it's this one. Then he said he expected Saben to call off the dogs early to make sure all the starters are healthy for next week, Then at the end he said he liked the over.

I agree Saban will pull the studs as soon as he thinks it's safe

What are you thinking about Bama first half?
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lol. Feel like his picks often contradict his analysis.

hard not to like it. I don’t really worry about them being flat, it not like those last few rival games were hard fought! I agree they will call off the dogs ASAP but that just makes the 1st half stronger doesn’t it? Do their normal 2nd quarter throttling then they can give the backups the second half. Arky has heart but I would think that shows up more on the full game number than 1st half. Arky did just give up 50 to a mizzou offense that not exactly high powered! Don’t see much reason why it not 35-7 at half!
 
The moose....is waiting....full game Bama backers beware....:moose::shocked:
 
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Last 5 weeks since the Uga game the closest 1st half has been 28-10 vs vols. Last 4 been 45-14 (Jesus!), 21-3, 28-3, and 27-0!!! Think I’ll keep riding bama 1st half! Lol
 
Not part his blazing 5 but cowherd said he bet pats tonight. Kinda funny, he says “he loves dogs but fell into trap of playing to many favs early in year”. Think we brought that up many times!

I have no clue who wins tonight,, im on the under 44, just don’t know how the fuck these teams score much? I suppose could get to 20-20 and there a ot touchdown to win, short of that just don’t see it. Both qbs throwing multiple pick 6s I suppose. Sure feels like 20 wins it. Carbon copy of the Gmen/rams while back. That game ended 17-9, that seems bout right to me.
 
The hater in me glad Colin having a losing year cause I’ve told myself forever nobody can beat nfl year after year playing that many games! He was proving my theory wrong for some time!! Lol.
 
Maybe there are some guys who can beat the NFL long term, but none of the media guys who make NFL seem to be able to.

Colin was the best I've seen. He's lost his touch. I think the move from Nowhere Conn. to LA has been the reason. A total change in the life he leads. LA throws everyone who moves there off balance, It's so beyond anything you've ever done and so pleasant it's impossible to remember who you are.

You need a calm, objective mind to handicap. The life he's living--limo to work, pats on the back from the bosses, lots of money, invited to the finest parties, living in Manhattan Beach--can make you think anything you do is bound to work. Makes you think you can't lose

I know that mental state well. Exact same thing happened to me when I moved to California
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Maybe there are some guys who can beat the NFL long term, but none of the media guys who make NFL seem to be able to.

Colin was the best I've seen. He's lost his touch. I think the move from Nowhere Conn. to LA has been the reason. A total change in the life he leads. LA throws everyone who moves there off balance, It's so beyond anything you've ever done and so pleasant it's impossible to remember who you are.

You need a calm, objective mind to handicap. The life he's living--limo to work, pats on the back from the bosses, lots of money, invited to the finest parties, livng in Manhattan Beach--can make you think anything you do is bound to work.
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I think it prob just law of averages, that plus Rona year been tough especially early on was a total crap shoot. Then for whatever reason as he mentioned today and we had discussed many times he played way more favs than normal for some reason.

I’ve had some sick nfl years but they usually followed by crappy ones. Lol. Last few years it been I struggle one half the season and do pretty good the other. I been pretty solid the last month but I’ve really limited myself to a few plays a week.
 
Got Pitt and the rams under!! Love starting the week off with a couple wins!! Sjst 2marro my only Friday play. Hopefully can go into Saturday 3-0!
 
I think Gmen as small dogs the only other nfl I like this week. Unfortunately been money fading cards ever since Murray got his shoulder banged up vs seattle. Teams are focusing on his running plus he seems more reluctant. Cards offense is way to depending on Murray ability to run. The way Gmen defense is playing I think cards ripe to fall again.
 
Continued drop on San Jose? I see 1.5 now. 3.5 at one point yesterday. ?
 
s--k said:
Continued drop on San Jose? I see 1.5 now. 3.5 at one point yesterday. ?
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yea that strange. I got in at -2.5 and thought I did good cause saw it 3.5 some spots this morning. Now back down again? Who freaking knows? I was kinda hoping it got up over -4 and I was prob gonna buy back a little, looks like that plan shot. Lol. Just hope it simply money moving it and not something else, always the fear of Rona outbreak or something crazy when I see lines move these days. I could certainly see why folks would be looking to back Nevada, they been good and prob looking to fade the situation for sjst having to stay and play away from home.
 
Agree, without looking into it, the situation for San Jose is not favorable and suspect moving on that. But they handled last week pretty well.
 
s--k said:
Agree, without looking into it, the situation for San Jose is not favorable and suspect moving on that. But they handled last week pretty well.
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any situation like that I obviously don’t mind as much with strong leadership and team chemistry which I think they have. Clearly it could catch up with them but I also think it can be a strong rally point with the right coach and kids.
 
True.

Nevada is good as well. But misleading game they are off of. Always dangerous to put too much into the last game, but that Fresno game was pretty crazy.
 
s--k said:
True.

Nevada is good as well. But misleading game they are off of. Always dangerous to put too much into the last game, but that Fresno game was pretty crazy.
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my biggest reason for liking sjst (other than just being super fond of that team! Ya know how it goes when you start riding a team like them the last few years and watching them grow!) is their ability to get after the qb. In a game with 2 pretty solid offenses I think the team who can get pressure will have the edge.
 
Bear belly aching about the big10 is not good radio. How can he sit here ranting about Hoosiers getting screwed? Did he not see osu beat Hoosiers? So he wants to crown Indiana the big10 champ even tho osu beat them and hadn’t lost a game, just cause osu played 1 not enough games of some arbitrary number? How can he say “they making games not count”, wouldnt crowning Hoosiers big10 champ be disregarding the Hoosier/osu game? Shut up bear, you annoying me!! How much ya wanna bet bear has a NW or Hoosiers ticket to win big10 and that why he wasting all this podcast crying?!?!???
 
Now he making excuses for iowa state. I wasn’t aware that special teams and defensive scores wernt as meaningful as offensive scores. That how he dismissing isu losing to laffy taffy. Cause laffy taffy scored in other ways it shouldn’t count?? Lmfao. Not sure I even want to hear his opinion on games after listening to these 2 asinine arguments!!
 
I've heard that more this year than ever before--sure State won 52-17, but they got a punt return and tow turnovers and a pick six.

That's all part of being a good team to me. I don't consider a team lucky just because they are good at special teams. A mystery to me of why people discount it as if it's a flaw
 
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I will say I think his case for messy state is reasonably sound, don’t think I have any interest playing it but don’t hate his logic behind that one.
 
You have any idea how the steamer play been doing this year Tahoe? I remember past year or 2 he was smoking hot but since they havnt talked a ton about it I’m assuming it hasn’t been as good this year. Just curious since this week it is uva which one my favorites as well!
 
2daBank said:
I don’t hate the asu play but have same trepidation as him about laying that kind of number in a rivalry game, just not my style. I’d have been interested in zona if they had their qb but I don’t think he playing. Easy pass.
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The more I look at it the more I think I like asu. It’s tough because the sample size is so small with asu but they have strong matchups on both sides of the ball
 
survive&advance said:
The more I look at it the more I think I like asu. It’s tough because the sample size is so small with asu but they have strong matchups on both sides of the ball
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I agree and I was fairly high on asu coming into the year, plus I’m a big Herm fan. Without their starting qb I dont think zona has much a chance, just not thrilled with the idea of laying the number. Anything less than 10 I would have prob considered, just don’t think I wanna be involved anything higher. Pretty sure sjst gonna be it for me on tonight’s card.
 
I don’t think Gmen my fav nfl play anymore, pretty sure I like houston to beat the bears as my best for Sunday. Houston run defense is their biggest weakness but I don’t trust bears to be able to exploit that, Nagy has never established any kind of consistent rushing attack in all his time in Chicago. Inexplicably bears have the highest pass percentage in the league! I was shocked when I saw that, can’t believe I gave Nagy a pass for so long when clearly he as big part the problem as the suspect qb play. How in gods name with the way this team been built his entire tenure does he not think it smart to establish the run?? The once stout defense has not been good lately either, Mack has totally no showed in several games, it feels like this team is broken and while houston having a bad year I expect them to continue playing hard behind watson leadership.
 
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So sjst are dogs now? Jfc! Anyone heard anything or it just money moving it?? Obviously if sjst has a outbreak I don’t wanna be on them. If it simply money moving it I hate that I got shitty number but im not worried bout the play as I’m always inclined to trust the team books opened as favs more than the team money flipped the line to!
 
Added Trocci's picks. He has the best record of any of the public pickers
Colorado +2
Georgia -13
Miami -3
Iowa +1
USC -2.5

I lean the same way he does on Colorado and Iowa. Don't care for his other 3. Maybe USC. I hate to bet on UCLA or against them.
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Added Trocci's picks. He has the best record of any of the public pickers
Colorado +2
Georgia -13
Miami -3
Iowa +1
USC -2.5

I lean the same way he does on Colorado and Iowa. Don't care for his other 3
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he the 1st person other than myself who seems to like usc, although I don’t like them enough to play it, it’s more I don’t love the UCLA side. Think that line to short which of course could be telling. Bear seemed to be convinced of that but I’m not a huge fan of that argument when it comes to making a play, I need more than “it’s a trap/fishy line”, tell me why it fishy and why it there then I can start to form a opinion!! Lol.
 
He said nyg was his least favorite for same concern I have, recency bias has everyone liking Gmen which bothers me.

shocked he on browns considering he been as big a baker basher as I have! Gotta say normally I would be against baker against any strong pass rush but is the ravens pass rush strong anymore? Dallas patchwork oline kept Dalton clean vs ravens last week which shocked me. Browns oline better than boys, browns are better coached than boys, browns do look like the better team right now.

Gmen his least favorite and from the sounds of it id say bills his favorite bet of week. Can hardly blame him but fact is he been down on steelers all year. He had them near the bottom the division in his preseason predictions, while steelers were reeling off wins he was reluctant to move them up his top 10 list until finally caving and having them in top 3 and was quick to move them way down to 7 or 8 after the loss!!
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Colin was the best I've seen. He's lost his touch. I think the move from Nowhere Conn. to LA has been the reason. A total change in the life he leads. LA throws everyone who moves there off balance, It's so beyond anything you've ever done and so pleasant it's impossible to remember who you are.
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Sounds like he is moving to Vegas.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Adding SVP picks and adding Steve's best bet as Ariz State

Duke +5
Troy +13.5
Missouri +13
San Diego State +19
La Tech _21.5
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so he goes from having trepidation about laying that many in rivalry game to being his best bet? Lol. Sometimes I can’t believe I like their podcast! Lol
 
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