ESPN Handicapper's picks--Week 13

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
The Bear—Week 13 (0-0) Season (18-17)
Nebraska at Iowa – Nebraska (+13.5)
Auburn at Alabama – Alabama (-24.5)
Ball St at Toledo – Ball St (+10)
Bear’s Bank Picks— Week 13 (0-0) Season (15-17)
Alabama (-24.5)
Hawaii (+7)
Ball_St (+10)

Stanford Steve— Week 13 (0-0) Season (25-19) Best Bet (5-5)
Notre Dame ML (-190)
UMass/Liberty – Over (56.5)
Pitt/Clemson – Over (55)
Penn St/Michigan – Over (58.5)

Bill Trocci— Week 13 (0-0) Season (30-23)
Texas -1.5
Notre Dame -4.5
Alabama-24.5
Northwestern -13.5
LSU +14.5

Phil Steele-- Week 13 (0-0) Season (19-33)
Penn State+2 vs Michigan
Texas State+17 vs Coastal Carolina
Texas Tech+11.5 vs Oklahoma State
App State-13.5 vs Troy
Florida State+9.5 vs Virginia
North Carolina+5 vs Notre Dame
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State over 68
Colts-3 vs Titans (NFL Pick)

Scott Van Pelt— Week 13 (0-0) Season (31-26)
North Carolina + 6
Oregon State + 13 1/2
Eastern Michigan + 7
East Carolina + 12
Pro
Indianapolis -3
Atlanta + 3

Joey and Jesse Virtual Locks
Joey (22-5 last year) Week 13 (0-0) Season (10-8)
Texas A&M-14.5 vs LSU
Clemson vs Pitt over 56
Jesse (16-11 last year) Week 13 (0-0) Season (9-8)
Ohio State-27.5 vs Illinois
Georgia-21.5 vs South Carolina

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 12 (0-0) Season (26-28)
Buffalo (-6)
NY Giants (-5.5)
Tennessee (+4)
Chicago (+9.5)
Seattle (-6)

My Picks— Week 13 (0-0) Season (34-23)
N Dame -3x
Nevada -6x
N Dame ML
Buff/Kent St o 70
Buff=7/Buff-Kent St o 70 parlay (half unit)
Colorado -3
Strong lean to S Jose State, lean to Miss State, aTm, N Dame/N Caro over. Was leaning to Stanford, but I must have thought that one up with I was stoned. No way to handicap a game between two teams that haven’t won a game

Still intrigued by that Iowa State/Texas game, but can’t figure it
 
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Steve was a strong lean to Miami Ohio, but didn't pull the trigger yet.

Bear had a soccer game as his Best Bet of the Weekend on Daily Wager, but said Nebraska was his #1 college pick

Kexzarian on Daily Wager had Nevada as his Best Bet of the Weekend

All the others on Daily Wager had prop bets (As far as I can tell from the times I watch them recap their daily Best Bets they lose almost every one of them and do even worse than losing almost every one on their prop bets)
 
i didnt think much of the podcast this week, crazy how some weeks it so good and others i could have done without even hearing it. i think if i was gonna get involved with stanford/cal it would prob be the over but i just have no clue what Cal is this year so kinda tough to figure out, has their defense really fallen off this far or has it been circumstance that will start correcting as they play and practice more, or is this entire season just shot for them? we know trees defense is pretty likely to make Cal offense be at least decent and i do think trees will move the ball, worry a little about the red zone for both teams but gun to my head i think that a over or nothing game although i can see a small case for trees.
 
ND has done a great job running the football all year, but will be missing starting C Patterson (foot out for year) and RG Kraemer (appendectomy) for this game. I would think the Irish would want to pound it on the ground, and limit NC offensive possessions. How much will their running game be effected by the loss of these two starters? ND though has opened up there passing game in recent weeks and let Book throw the ball downfield more with really good results. He was very good against both Clem and BC and facing NC swiss cheese defense he should have success. Howell has been on fire though, and tough to rule him out of any game with his aerial displays. Should be a good game but ND certainly has the better defense in this matchup.
 
2daBank said:
i dont like much of anything friday so i might end up on that trees over,, isu/tex seems like a freaking coin flip to me, why you love texas eric? just curious.
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I think they’ll be able to slow the run game. And they have better athletes. Mostly a gut feeling though. Herman always scares me but I like Texas to win at home. And I got them +2.
 
Eric Antrobus said:
I think they’ll be able to slow the run game. And they have better athletes. Mostly a gut feeling though. Herman always scares me but I like Texas to win at home. And I got them +2.
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certainly not saying you wrong cause I got no idea. I wanna say I think isu the better team but week to week either one can be better than other with these 2. The short week for isu and the long layoff for Texas is really just the final straw that lead me to pass, I just don’t know if or how big a advantage that might be? Hoping it’s obvious one way or other early on and I can jump in live, gl.
 
Timh said:
ND certainly has the better defense in this matchup.
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Agree. That's why I like them. Tougher physically too and I always like the toughest guys and the best D

The last two games N Dame has given up a ton of points so I may be overestimating their D. N Dame has given up a ton of points in their last tow games so I may be overestimating the D a little, but in both games they've shown they can win a scoring battle and I don't see the Carolina D as equal to Clemson or BC

Really looking forward to that game, best of the weekend to me

And I still have no idea on Texas/I State. I agree with 2daBank--that's a coin flip. If I bet it I'd have to take Texas. The logic part of my brain just can't believe I State can go in to Texas and beat the Horns.. But I'm passing
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Agree. That's why I like them. Tougher physically too and I always like the toughest guys and the best D

The last two games N Dame has given up a ton of points so I may be overestimating their D. N Dame has given up a ton of points in their last tow games so I may be overestimating the D a little, but in both games they've shown they can win a scoring battle and I don't see the Carolina D as equal to Clemson or BC

Really looking forward to that game, best of the weekend to me

And I still have no idea on Texas/I State. I agree with 2daBank--that's a coin flip.
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just the short week vs long layoff enough to make my head spin!! Lol. We should see who better off from that pretty quickly.

Unc and ND really not the acc teams I follow as close/feel I know as well, they to high up in class, I prefer the middling acc teams! Lol. When I was looking at it and what I found interesting and not talked about much is for all the talk bout Howell with unc offense they really a very good running team! I was kinda shocked to see unc actually rushes for exact number of yards per game as Irish and do it on less attempts! I know they have 2 really talented guys but didn’t realize how many yards they churned out per week. Gotta think Irish can slow the run game down which then leads me to the question is Howell as effective when he doesn’t have that kind of ground support?
 
vegasvice said:
Here is a cool excerpt from Gill Alexander's show on VSIN with Chris Fallica in which South Point oddsmaker Chris Andrews sets hypothetical lines for BYU opponents who are ranked in the top 13.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1332365316534374402
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kinda sums up what I was saying in the ranking thread about schedule be damned id favor byu over a whole bunch the teams above them!

I’ve heard talk that cincy and byu trying to add a game and play each other, that would be awesome and this year in particular if they do that I say the winner in the 4 seed period imo.
 
Added Trocci's picks

Texas -1.5
Notre Dame -4.5
Alabama-24.5
Northwestern -13.5
LSU +14.5

I keep looking at the Northwestern game--another team with the best D and the toughest guys, smartest one's too--and I'm tempted to lay the points, but I don't consider NW a good cover team, especially on the road, and this is a perfect let down spot for them. I'm still tempted though so I might pull the trigger tomorrow
 
Good. Oklahoma needs Texas to win this game. Then if things play out the way they should the Big 12 title game would be a rematch between Oklahoma and Texas.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Trocci's picks

Texas -1.5
Notre Dame -4.5
Alabama-24.5
Northwestern -13.5
LSU +14.5

I keep looking at the Northwestern game--another team with the best D and the toughest guys, smartest one's too--and I'm tempted to lay the points, but I don't consider NW a good cover team, especially on the road, and this is a perfect let down spot for them. I'm still tempted though so I might pull the trigger tomorrow
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I keep looking at it from the opposite side but nowhere close to actually pulling the trigger. Hate laying those kind of points with NW types and as you mentioned not a good spot at all imo.
 
Lines up on two matches made at the last minute after cancellations:

Colorado -3 at home against SD State
Washington -7 at home against Utah

Anyone have any opinions on Buffalo/Kent State. I like the MAC, but have only a surface knowledge of it. Buffalo has been -7 all week, but I can get -6x now and I like Buffalo here. And between them they are averaging almost 100 points a game

Any thoughts on this one
 
TahoeLegend said:
Lines up on two matches made at the last minute after cancellations:

Colorado -3 at home against SD State
Washington -7 at home against Utah

Anyone have any opinions on Buffalo/Kent State. I like the MAC, but have only a surface knowledge of it. Buffalo has been -7 all week, but I can get -6x now and I like Buffalo here. And between them they are averaging almost 100 points a game

Any thoughts on this one
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im not gonna pretend I have any real knowledge of the Mac. Hoops I do, havnt bet one maction fb game all year tho, that not easy to do with all them stand alone weeknight games!! Best bet go to Mac thread and talk with sk and Mars, that what I would do! Lol
 
Eric Antrobus said:
I think they’ll be able to slow the run game. And they have better athletes. Mostly a gut feeling though. Herman always scares me but I like Texas to win at home. And I got them +2.
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not that it any consolation but feel like you were on the right side. Herman dumb ass in game decisions lost you what shoulda been a win imo. Good play, shitty result. Why in the hell you fake punt and give up field position or pass on 3 points to put you up 7 late in a game like that is beyond me? I’d be steaming had I been on them. Get the next one buddy.
 
Maybe I'm brainwashed from decades of watching great Texas teams, but Texas looked like the best team, with the best athletes, just the way they do in every game, so I'm always surprised when they lose a game like that

And it still shocks me that in every Texas game I've watched this year the same thing happens--a team plays the standard defense the entire game and gets a lead, then late in the game goes to a prevent defense, Texas goes no-huddle and puts the game in Ehlinger's hands, and he just marches right down the field. Iowa State did it today. They even dropped the guy they had spying on Ehlinger back deep.

It worked today, but it was just luck it did, and it's failed more times than it's worked
 
2daBank said:
I’m not 100% but wanna say that business as usual for him the last several years. Lol
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He's been running right around 50% for the three or four year I've been posting this thread,, just enough to finish in the rad In the red most years, but not as bad as this year. But one year he hit a streak about this time of year and beat them all.

Not sure I'll bet anything tomorrow. Might add San Jose St.

Really like aTm, Georgia and N Western, but not that many points,

Any insights
 
TahoeLegend said:
Lines up on two matches made at the last minute after cancellations:

Colorado -3 at home against SD State
Washington -7 at home against Utah

Anyone have any opinions on Buffalo/Kent State. I like the MAC, but have only a surface knowledge of it. Buffalo has been -7 all week, but I can get -6x now and I like Buffalo here. And between them they are averaging almost 100 points a game

Any thoughts on this one
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You like physical teams and the better defense it's Buffalo. Kent has rounded into a pretty good team, but their D hasn't really been tested/exposed this year and I'm not sure it is really that good. Akron might've exposed them you could say in the 1st H last week. Buffalo excellent at running it and I'm not so sure their passing game has taken the next step they are usually good enough passing. Pretty much a one WR team, which I remember them always being and it's worked before with them.

I think Kent's QB is the best in the league. They are kinda a one WR team too, but are using some younger WRs this year. They run the ball ok, but the entire O really runs through the QB. As he goes, so goes the offense. Kent has a very good kicker too. Buffalo historically has had kicking problems, I don't know where they stand with that this year.

Buffalo is pretty much the same team they were last year and have been in recent years. You know what you will get with them. Kent is growing. Can't compare their game last year to this one I don't think. Buffalo was pretty superior on that Thursday night where an unthinkable comeback happened. I believe that game kept Buffalo out of the MAC Title game and launched Kent on their current streak of bowl victory and legitimate hope of winning the division.

Buffalo would be the kind of typical side I would say, Kent would be the kind of contrarian side.
 
Some ugly dogs appealing to me 2marro. Looking at but dunno if I can pull trigger on the likes of Troy, Texas st, maybe even utep?? Ugly! lol.

def playing terps +12 and mtsu +6.5. Still working, usually I be done with card way before now but late start to the week then the holiday slowed me down.
 
2daBank said:
Some ugly dogs appealing to me 2marro. Looking at but dunno if I can pull trigger on the likes of Troy, Texas st, maybe even utep?? Ugly! lol.

def playing terps +12 and mtsu +6.5. Still working, usually I be done with card way before now but late start to the week then the holiday slowed me down.
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Wrong thread to be talking about ugly dogs. Tahoe doesn't like bad teams, or should I better say, losing teams.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Lines up on two matches made at the last minute after cancellations:

Colorado -3 at home against SD State
Washington -7 at home against Utah

Anyone have any opinions on Buffalo/Kent State. I like the MAC, but have only a surface knowledge of it. Buffalo has been -7 all week, but I can get -6x now and I like Buffalo here. And between them they are averaging almost 100 points a game

Any thoughts on this one
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Very tempted to bet the Over 67.5 as I can see them scoring close to 100
 
TahoeLegend said:
Lines up on two matches made at the last minute after cancellations:

Colorado -3 at home against SD State
Washington -7 at home against Utah

Anyone have any opinions on Buffalo/Kent State. I like the MAC, but have only a surface knowledge of it. Buffalo has been -7 all week, but I can get -6x now and I like Buffalo here. And between them they are averaging almost 100 points a game

Any thoughts on this one
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Regarding the Buffalo, Kent st game.....think over is the best play.....check out Wire2Wire thread......
 
Is there any reason not to just hold your nose and lay the points w tcu? Fading Ku been about the easiest money in the world. I hate laying these kind of spreads but have felt dumb any week I didn’t.
 
I haven't seen that fade Kansas strategy work too well over the long haul. Steve quit doing it because he lost twin in a row. TCU and cover with ease if they get fired up, but no one gets fired up for them. Anyone can cover against them for that matter, but not everyone does. And every so often the do what they did against WV and cover on a fluke play at the end.

A lot of handicappers I touch base with are taking Kansas State, but I don't see ot. I don't like to try and figure which bad team is better. Another one getting a lot of attention is Texas Tech. I can kind of see that one more. Tech always gives a good effort an this is a very bad spot for Oklahoma State. Beat and a lot of injuries, but I just don't like betting bad teams

Still lean to San Jose State and Nevada.
 
Added Phil Steele's picks.

The thing I find interesting about his picks is he lets his computers do them. He has very good technology and excellent data bases, but I'm not sure a computer can handicap football.

A computer can now beat the chess champion of the world, but so far no one has produced a computer that can beat the best human minds at handicapping
 
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Another one a surprising number of handicappers like is Texas State. I can see it. I'm not betting a 2-9 team under any circumstances, but I see why guys like it.

Texas State is a scoring machine with great special teams and scores on everyone. They have no defense, but very good coaching staff and they play hard every game and even thought they've lost 9 almost all of them have been one-score or less, last possession games. They are always an all out team anyway and this week they are dedicating the game to their teammate who was murdered

And if C Carolina is ever going to come out flat it;s this game
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Phil Steele's picks.

The thing I find interesting about his picks is he lets his computers do them. He has very good technology and excellent data bases, but I'm not sure a computer can handicap football.

A computer can now beat the chess champion of the world, but so far no one has produced a computer that can beat the best human minds at handicapping
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20+ years ago when I used to care what somebody's "late phones" or "service plays" were Northcoast/Powersweep/Phil Steele was one of the ones we used to get. I used to think that Phil's picks (or Northcoast's plays) were connected with who Phil thought would do well in the preseason. It didn't matter if that team hadn't lived up to the potential or the expectations, he would still back then because now they had value. He got stuck on what should be happening instead or reacting to what is happening. I think I actually learned a lot by going through that period of following those type pickers to see how or why they are doing what they do (or lack of good reasoning) and I still will listen to their comments, but I let it go in one ear and out the other to not impact what I want to do. Not sure I care enough, but I'd almost like to go back and look at the PowerPlays newsletter that moneymark posts and see how closely those plays correlate to Phils actual picks, because I thought those were his computer picks.
 
Added Bear's Picks

Added Colorado -3. Not as strong a play as N dame, don't like it as well as I did S Jose State before that one got cancelled.

As far as I can tell almost no college teams are announcing how many players are missing, let alone who they are. more than 20 players missing from Md/Indiana, and I didn't see one announcement. Makes picks even more of a gamble
 
You guys were spot on with over in the Kent st/Buffalo game!! I feel stupid holding my Kent st +7.5 ticket instead of over. Lol
 
TahoeLegend said:
Bet SJ State earlier and just heard it got cancelled
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I have to drive back across river now. Was one my biggest plays of season, get home and see my money refunded into my account. Fucking sucks!! 1st wvu gets postponed now this. 2 favorite plays of weekend up in smoke
 
I swear I wanna play that Pitt/Clemson under. Up to like 58 now?!? I have it Clemson 31-35 range and think 20 be about it for Pitt: Maybe that means I should take the points with Pitt?? Only scary thing is playing a under in the 50s when I suspect we could see 80+ passes combined.
 
2daBank said:
You guys were spot on with over in the Kent st/Buffalo game!! I feel stupid holding my Kent st +7.5 ticket instead of over. Lol
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The guys who analyzed that game were right on the money. I noticed those two teams were averaging 100 points between them and then the guys above convinced me. I'm making a note to check what those guys say about the MAC every week.
 
TahoeLegend said:
The guys who analyzed that game were right on the money. I noticed those two teams were averaging 100 points between them and then the guys above convinced me. I'm making a note to check what those guys say about the MAC every week.
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i mentioned you should go to Mac thread and talk to them, they know that conf really well!! I’m just a stubborn moron and had decided I wanted to play kent st! Lol.

I knew Buffalo I would have success on ground but 15 carries for 247 in 1st half is insane!!! Freaking 70 over gomma damn near cash in 1st half!! You don’t see that every day!! Crazy: Great call by them:
 
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