ESPN Handicapper's Picks--Week 13

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Steve and Bear no picks in common. Only 3 from Steve. That's 3 more than i can find. I had seven of my eight best bets of the season in one day last Saturday and this week I don't see any. Not sure I believe Steve's Cal pick. That looks like the alumni bet a lot of people make--bet against your school and you won't feel as bad if they lose.

The Bear—Week 12 (2-3) Season (24-30-1)
Bank Picks—Week 12 (1-2) Season (20-15-1)
Week 13 (0-0)
Colorado St at Wyoming – Colorado St (+6.5)
Ball St at Kent – Ball St (-3.5)
Michigan at Indiana – Indiana (+10)
WKU at Southern Miss – Southern Miss (-4)
UCF at Tulane – Tulane (+6)

Bank Picks:
Stanford Steve— Week 12 (4-2) Season (32-25-1), Best Bet (4-6)
Week 13 (0-0)
California at Stanford – California (+3)
Temple at Cincinnati – Temple (+10.5)
Air Force at New Mexico – Air Force (-22)
UCLA at USC – UCLA (+13.5) Best Bet

Virtual Locks
Galloway (18-5)
Virginia -17
Minnesota -13x
Palmer ( )
E Carolina -14x
Virginia Tech -4

Scott Van Pelt— Week 12 (3-2) Season (43-47)
Week 13 (0-0)
Texas at Baylor – Texas (+5.5)
Washington at Colorado – Colorado (+14)
Duke at Wake Forest – Duke (+7)
Michigan at Indiana – Indiana (+9.5)
Minnesota at Northwestern – Northwestern (+13.5)

Colin Cowherd Marquee 3-- Week 12 (2-1) Season (11-21-1)
Week 13 (0-0)
Michigan at Indiana – Indiana (+9.5)
UCLA at USC – USC (-14)
Penn St at Ohio St – Penn St (+19)

Blazing Five—Week 11 (2-3) Season (26-23-1)
Week 12 (0-0)
Denver at Buffalo – Denver (+3.5)
NY Giants at Chicago – NY Giants (+6)
Oakland at NY Jets – Oakland (-3)
Dallas at New England – Dallas (+6.5)
Seattle at Philadelphia – Seattle (+1.5)

Max Meyer— Week 12 (1-3) Season (27-19) Parlays (1-0)
Week 13 (0-0)
Arizona State +14.5

RJ Bell—Best Bet of the Week— Week 11 (no picks) Season (12-5-1)
Week 12 (0-0)
My Picks—Week 12 (6-2) Season (36-29) (+22.50 units)
Multi-Unit bets (6-3), Max Bets (1-0) Parlays (2-4)
Week 13 (0-0)
(two-team parlays for one-quarter unit (50) each)
S D State +3/Navy -3x
Ohio St -18x /Michigan -9sx (see above for the probability working against this one)
Tennessee +4/Texas +5x
Navy-SMU over/K State-Tex Tech over
Oklahoma State -5x/to be named later
 
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Check that Colorado State line for Bear.

I heard some of Cowherd earlier in the week. He was discussing the Mich-IU and PSU-OSU games. It sounded like his primary basis for picking IU and PSU this week is because he said Mich and OSU never or almost never cover the week prior to playing eachother. I have no direct knowledge on that or if that alone is enough to justify picking those teams. As has been said, he kinda just throws stuff out there on the college games without much depth.
 
Ohio State has lost 9 straight ATS the week before Michigan according to ESPN.

I'll see if I can find anything on Michigan
 
I like CSU a bit but think I prefer 1st half +3.5. Team rankings has these teams 1st half performances rated very closely, it the second half where CSU has struggled and you would figure wyo gets stronger as they wear teams down in 4th., think CSU can have some success thru the air long as they avoid turnovers.
 
Lean temple w Steve but i got down on u47.5 early in the week, obviously lean dd dog in a game I think points gonna be tough to come by but dunno if I wanna play both.,

Hoosiers only way I’d go but they seem very trendy (maybe for good reason) I also worry bout how weather effects that game.
 
The thing I don't understand is what is going on with Texas. Herman start at Texas as the same time Ruhl started at Baylor and there is not a handicapper on this board or any other board that would have believed by the third year Baylor would be favored over Texas by almost a touchdown.

I though sure Herman was the right guy for Texas, but I'm starting to wonder. There is no way Texas should ever be a touchdown dog to Iowa State and Baylor and beat Kansas and Kansas State by a total of five points.

Constanza knows that Texas program. Maybe he can explain it

I'm still looking but don't see anything worth betting on this week,

Can't see risking money on either game, but if I did I'd have to go Michigan and Wyoming just because they are more physical and I like the more physical team on my side in November
 
TahoeLegend said:
The thing I don't understand is what is going on with Texas. Herman start at Texas as the same time Ruhl started at Baylor and there is not a handicapper on this board or any other board that would have believed by the third year Baylor would be favored over Texas by almost a touchdown.

I though sure Herman was the right guy for Texas, but I'm starting to wonder. There is no way Texas should ever be a touchdown dog to Iowa State and Baylor and beat Kansas and Kansas State by a total of five points.

Constanza knows that Texas program. Maybe he can explain it
Click to expand...
The team isn't coached well - plain and simple. Plenty of athletes but not being put in the position to win, schematically and otherwise. Herman coached under both Mack Brown and Urban Meyer. Unfortunately he's latched onto the former more than the latter. Has surrounded himself with a bunch of Yes men instead of quality coaches. He's an arrogant guy and clings to his Mensa status to always make it clear that he's the smartest guy in the room - hopefully he can get past his ego long enough to make changes going into year 4, major changes. Probably both coordinators. If he doesn't, Herman may not see a year 5.

The Texas fanbase wasn't expecting 15 or 16 losses in 3 years from Herman. But maybe we should have - we're now at 10 straight years with at least 4 losses.
 
This Texas - Baylor game is a tough one for sure.

Can't think of many tougher losses to rebound from than what Baylor is facing this week.

Fortunately for them it is Texas week and beating Texas is huge for them so no time to look in the rear view mirror.

Some questions were around this Baylor offense prior to the OU game. They have the potential to be a good offensive team, but just think about where they would be last week without those Jalen Hurts mistakes? Two of their four TDs were short fields after turnovers. Baylor only moved the ball for legit TD drives twice in the game.

Would be big blow for Baylor if Mims is out. Colin Johnson out for Texas, but they were ok last week without him.

Texas should just go no huddle up tempo entire game and let Sam throw or run it about every down.
 
Even though I know it happened, my mind still can't believe Texas could lose four games for 10 straight years.

I doubt there is a single player on the Baylor roster who was even got a visit to Texas, let alone a scholarship offer.

But Texas was so good for most of my life--and Baylor was so bad--my brain would still take Texas if I bet this game.

Agree with you s--k, if I were coaching Texas I'd go no huddle and put the game on Sam's shoulders.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Even though I know it happened, my mind still can't believe Texas could lose four games for 10 straight years.

I doubt there is a single player on the Baylor roster who was even got a visit to Texas, let alone a scholarship offer.

But Texas was so good for most of my life--and Baylor was so bad--my brain would still take Texas if I bet this game.

Agree with you s--k, if I were coaching Texas I'd go no huddle and put the game on Sam's shoulders.
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I’d assume some of Baylor’s defensive front surely had some interest from horns and other traditional powerhouses no?

Far as the game I agree Texas or nothing.. As disappointing this coach been they continue being very strong as dogs. Not only do I think bears will have trouble getting over last week (far from biggest part of the handicap) but think more importantly they clearly ran out of gas in that one.

totally agree w your take about how horns should run the hurry up on offense. Bears just don’t have the horses depth wise, I think it fair to say they matchup well with most the best teams with top half their roster. The problem for them is they don’t have the depth of the big dogs so not only deeper we get into games it a issue but also the deeper into the season. Considering playing horns small before kickoff but then saving some bullets for in-game if bears start strong.
 
A friend who bets the NFL just sent me this pick. Steve Fizzik is a good handicapper, don't know how he has done on other selections, but my friend says he is 9-0 on his best bet selections. I like his picks on USC/UCLA, even though they are two of the most unpredictable programs in the country, may play the over in a parlay

Baltimore at L.A. Rams – L.A. Rams (+3)
UCLA at USC – over 65.5 and USC -13.5
Detroit at Washington – Under 41 ( best bet this week, 9-0 on the season)
 
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I’m surprised to hear that bout Fizzik cause while I enjoy the RJ bell podcast for which fizzik a big part of they have been pretty bad w ncaa this year. I think their main ncaa pod of week fizzik normally isn’t even on but they read some his notes from time to time.
 
Haven't been able to find RJ Bell's Best Bet picks the last couple of weeks, 2daBank. Have you seen them for this week?
 
TahoeLegend said:
Haven't been able to find RJ Bell's Best Bet picks the last couple of weeks, 2daBank. Have you seen them for this week?
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This really only place I see them. Occasionally they mention a few on podcast but I dozed off right after I pushed play on it last night. Sorry. I’ll prob try to listen to it again tonight, if I hear any I’ll post them.
 
I didn’t see SVP “winners” segment this week either. Him being on Hoosiers really surprises me cause they seem pretty popular so kinda curious to his reasoning there?? Would have thought Michigan been much more likely for him even tho he doesn’t play many favs., not that I disagree, just seems out of character.
 
Cowherd Blazin' 5

  • Denver at Buffalo – Denver (+3.5)
  • NY Giants at Chicago – NY Giants (+6)
  • Oakland at NY Jets – Oakland (-3)
  • Dallas at New England – Dallas (+6.5)
  • Seattle at Philadelphia – Seattle (+1.5)
 
I hate that UCLA play for a best bet. Don’t hate the play so much as seems like 2 tough teams to figure out for best bet. I agree it seems like too many points but who freaking knows, plus feels like a shootout so dunno if the points as valuable?
 
I played that CSU game right going 1st half. Suck on that bear!! Give me a job espn! I’m a big ugly guy too!! Lol
 
Anyone more familiar with Steve's history of going on or against Stanford? I'm trying to weigh the significance of him being a former Stanford player picking Cal in the Big Game. I already like Cal, trying to find more reinforcement and if Steve is serious in his pick or what his commentary might be on that one.
 
s--k said:
Anyone more familiar with Steve's history of going on or against Stanford? I'm trying to weigh the significance of him being a former Stanford player picking Cal in the Big Game. I already like Cal, trying to find more reinforcement and if Steve is serious in his pick or what his commentary might be on that one.
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He has played against Stanford several times this year. He has seemed down on them the entire season. I think he takes this serious, i couldn't give you his reasoning. This week's podcast was completely forgettable. I listened and don't recall anything of substance from it. One of those, " well, that's 1 hour of my life I will never get back" kind of listens.
 
Didn’t CAL lose 2 important players on offense last week? I’m assuming they are back this week? I was thinking starting QB and RB. Dunno for sure but still haven’t recovered from that ass whooping the Trojans laid on that stellar defense. I was not amused with The Bears ineptness on both sides of the ball.
 
Starting QBs for both Cal and Stanford are out. Stanford at least has a back-up. I've bet Cal twice this year and both times the starter--same guy both times--got knocked out and both times they had zero offense left. This is a huge rivalry game, but both these teams are so bad they aren't worth a bet

I'm going to keep my discipline this week. The times I've had a bad week this year are when I went ahead and bet even though no games met my criteria.
I have teams I like and my numbers show are good bets, but come up short for reasons I've learned the hard way are not winning propositions in the long run. This is not the week to ignore percentages and the law of probabilities, so I'm going to stick to a few two-team parlays for one-quarter unit (50) each.
S D State +3/Navy -3x
Ohio St -18x /Michigan -9sx (see above for the probability working against this one)
Tennessee +4/Texas +5x
Navy-SMU over/K State-Tex Tech over
Oklahoma State -5x/to be named later
 
booksbestfriend said:
He has played against Stanford several times this year. He has seemed down on them the entire season. I think he takes this serious, i couldn't give you his reasoning. This week's podcast was completely forgettable. I listened and don't recall anything of substance from it. One of those, " well, that's 1 hour of my life I will never get back" kind of listens.
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It was def kinda one the weeks I felt bummed afterwords. Such a shame cause when they want to that podcast is excellent. Just far too often the second half of year it feels like they mail it in and just tell stories I could give 2 shits about.

Far as Steve on or against Stanford this year I wanna say he liked NW week one (as did I), of course that was the prelude to how awful NW was gonna be this year, doing next to nothing all game but still covering until last second turnover for a trees defensive score to cover!

Then he was def on beavers vs trees which ended up being a push but a game I was thrilled I bet because that game the one I watched that sold me on Oregon st which obviously made me lot of lovely underdog ml cash this year!! Beavers couldn’t score to save their lives in that 1st half and got down big. Woke up and made huge second half comeback and tied it late, then they botched the following kickoff and gave trees the ball at midfield and only needed 15 or so yards to kick game winning fg w no time left. I’d say beavers were right side (as NW was) but ended up w loss and push on those 2 (I think he had +3, might have been I got it late, don’t recall).

Those the 2 Stanford games I recall him having plays on, few others he had opinions but don’t know if plays. I certainly respect his opinion on trees, couldn’t see myself being against him on a Stanford game as I’m sure he knows that squad better than me.
 
I feel like only person in universe that likes mizzou this week, which odd cause seemed lot these guys and others I respect liked mizzou last week and I didn’t see that one at all.
 
I’ve have spent a insane amount of time on Pitt/Vtech this week (seriously hours), Initially leaned Hokies before digging in, now lean pit +4 but the weather concerns and bud foster factor worry me. I can make a case for both, feel stronger w panthers and points but when I can argue both this well best to pass on side.

What ive come up with is I think anyone who got down on this under at the jump did great, I still like it at 44.5, would have loved to come to this conclusion when it was above 47! I just think both defenses have the advantage here then throw in what expected to be moderate rain throughout and when I say 4 tds and 5 Fgs would still be under I feel like that would be a ton between these 2. Both teams sport excellent red zone defenses so I fully expect more settling than tds, hokies red zone offense been the much better unit but I think that is largely due to their run game which I do not see having a great deal of success vs panthers front 7. If we can avoid bad turnovers for scores and big plays cause of slipping I think this looks very similar to the canes/Pitt game played in wet conditions few weeks back. Missing the great number will make it a smaller play but give me u44.5, I put too much time and work into this game not to have a play and I vowed to find a winner on this Game in last weeks thread! That what I got. Lol
 
Took the under in Tech/Pitt on release (Tues for me) and didn't even consider a side. With Narduzzi's boneheaded coaching decisions, I never feel safe playing Pitt. So, I leave them alone. But, those decisions usually account for 3-7 points. That makes the under feel warm and fuzzy to me. If forced to take a side, I think I'd feel better with the home team just for that reason alone. GL with whatever you decide.
 
On one his podcast RJ bell took giants+6 as his best bet. Fizzik took Bungals +6.5, and other guy took Packers I think.

I have no idea if that one his best bets you guys normally post? Just what he does at end of last podcast for week.
 
Thanks books and bank on the detail for Stanford Steve.

See Bear likes Southern Miss. As do I. That line has dropped like a rock throughout the week. WKU has figured things out this year and last time anyone saw them they were throttling Arkansas. Southern Miss is pretty solid...and they don't control own destiny, but they can still win the West so plenty for them to play for goal wise.
 
Good call on that VT/Pitt game 2daBank. You mulled that all week and came up with a winner. I was caught by surprise by the bad weather at a lot of games including that one. It had a powerful effect on a lot of them and determined in the outcome in some, especially totals

Adding SD State as the second team with Oklahoma State
Adding K State/Tex Tech over as second team with USC/UCLA
Adding Tulsa/Miami as two team parlay
Adding Oregon/Utah as two team parlay. Dreams usually die in the desert, but I'm reaching on this one to give me something to watch. Always a moronic idea so call this one the Moron Parlay.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Good call on that VT/Pitt game 2daBank. You mulled that all week and came up with a winner. I was caught by surprise by the bad weather at a lot of games including that one. It had a powerful effect on a lot of them and determined in the outcome in some, especially totals

Adding SD State as the second team with Oklahoma State
Adding K State/Tex Tech over as second team with USC/UCLA
Adding Tulsa/Miami as two team parlay
Adding Oregon/Utah as two team parlay. Dreams usually die in the desert, but I'm reaching on this one to give me something to watch. Always a moronic idea so call this one the Moron Parlay.
Click to expand...

Thanks bro. So glad I didn’t end up on Pitt, of course I leaned Hokies at one point early as well. The word of bad weather made panthers unplayable tho. Plus I really didn’t know how to quantify the whole bud foster retirement party so to speak??

I didn’t get a chance to watch a snap, was there hard steady rain as predicted? Certainly didn’t go exactly how I thought other than defenses out shining offenses. Even Hokies offense didn’t appear great with the early tds, 1 big play I believe and one defensive score, think the 3rd was a result of them having great field position most the 1st half. This was all box score watching tho. Got busy this afternoon.
 
TahoeLegend said:
The thing I don't understand is what is going on with Texas. Herman start at Texas as the same time Ruhl started at Baylor and there is not a handicapper on this board or any other board that would have believed by the third year Baylor would be favored over Texas by almost a touchdown.

I though sure Herman was the right guy for Texas, but I'm starting to wonder. There is no way Texas should ever be a touchdown dog to Iowa State and Baylor and beat Kansas and Kansas State by a total of five points.

Constanza knows that Texas program. Maybe he can explain it

I'm still looking but don't see anything worth betting on this week,

Can't see risking money on either game, but if I did I'd have to go Michigan and Wyoming just because they are more physical and I like the more physical team on my side in November
Click to expand...


Horns got me today. Have had a solid read on bears most the year but think it was better the 1st half of conf play, they been a bit confusing to me recently even w a game I cashed (the tcu game where they didn’t score a td in regulation!), just not sure what to expect from their offense week to week., and this week i thought the d might be in trouble after running out of gas in 4th vs Sooners.

That sooner game still wasn’t sure bout offense cause they got handed a few short fields early on correct? As I mentioned above didn’t see much the 2:30 kickoffs so just box score reading. Horns appears to have played them virtually even in yards so I’ll have to catch a replay to know how they only managed 3 for over 3qtrs? If anyone has incite on it would love to hear!!

End of day Herman as a dog got me,
 
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