ESPN Handicapper's Picks--Week 10

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Steve going mainly for totals this week, Bear mainly with favorites

The Bear—Week 10 (0-0) Season (14-10)
Clemson -5.5
Georgia -3.5
USC -10.5
Michigan -3.5
San Jose St (+9.5)
Bear’s Bank Picks—Week 10 (0-0)) Season (13-10)

Stanford Steve— Week 10 (0-0) Season (18-13) Best Bet (4-4)
Notre Dame ML
Kansas/Oklahoma over 63 Best Bet
California (-1.5)
Liberty/V Tech – Over (67.5)
Maryland/Penn St – Over (63)

Bill Trocci— Week 10 (0-0) Season (21-18)
Arizona State (+11)
Michigan (-3)
Florida (+4.5)
Oklahoma State (-11)
Clemson (-5.5)

Phil Steele-- Week 10 (0-0) Season (14-21)
Mississippi State-19 vs Vanderbilt
Penn St-25 vs Maryland
Utah-14 vs Arizona No Contest
Iowa State-14 vs Baylor
Pro
Arizona Cardinals-4.5

Scott Van Pelt— 10 (0-0) Season (26-20)
Boise St (+3.5)
Houston (+13.5)
Illinois (+7)
Iowa (-6.5)
Rice (-5)
So Carolina (10)
Pro
Buffalo (+3)

Joey and Jesse Virtual Locks
Joey (22-5 last year) Week 10 (0-0) Season (8-4)
Jesse (16-11 last year) Week 10 (0-0) Season (6-5)

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 9 (0-0) Season (20-19)
Seattle -3
Baltimore -2.5
Washington -3
Arizona -4.5
Tampa Bay -5.5

My Picks— Week 10 (0-0) Season (24-16)
Florida +4
Notre Dame +5.5
Cal -1
Oregon State -1
SD State -9
 
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I see Steve stole my liberty/tech over. Lol. Bear stole San Jose st! Those are really the only 2 I see myself on or already am on out of all those. Honestly I’m already against bear with ASU and lean against him on few others. I’d guess one his bank picks turns out to be WVU which I like, just judging by way he talked bout that game on the 1st half of podcast (all I made it thru before falling asleep, lol) seems to me he likes them. I’m not sure I have much of any interest either way in rest of Steve’s? Kinda sounded to me like he was leaning over in the Stanford/ducks game, he does not like Stanford’s defense and I trust his opinion there. Apparently their passing attack could be pretty good tho which def makes 51 seem low.
 
2daBank said:
he does not like Stanford’s defense and I trust his opinion there.
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Same here, I was thinking Stanford looked pretty good with that number, but not after listening to Steve. He also said Stanford suffered more than any team from players opting out, losing their two best players with little to replace them.

I like that Liberty/V T Tech over too.

On the Penn St/Maryland game I had never heard there were bad feelings between those two teams, but both guys said Franklin and the Penn St players hates Maryland and will run up the score as high as they can. Steve cited that as his reason for taking the over in that game.

Looked at that Oklahoma/Kansas over as soon as the line came out, but I'm leery of Riley when it comes to running it up. People still think of Oklahoma as a fast tempo team like they were under Stoops, but they almost never speed up the tempo now. If the game is close or OU is behind the Sooners go all out, but Riley has shown in many games--even when he had a senior QB like Mayfield or Murray--that he likes to get a lead, then keep the ball on the ground and take all the clock before he runs a play. A couple of times he's had a drive that lasted almost an entire quarter

I really like my Cal bet, but covid is now an issue. One Cal player tested positive and they are going through the tracing and testing protocol so anything could happen
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Same here, I was thinking Stanford looked pretty good with that number, but not after listening to Steve. He also said Stanford suffered more than any team from players opting out, losing their two best players with little to replace them.

I like that Liberty/V T Tech over too.

On the Penn St/Maryland game I had never heard there were bad feelings between those two teams, but both guys said Franklin and the Penn St players hates Maryland and will run up the score as high as they can. Steve cited that as his reason for taking the over in that game.

Looked at that Oklahoma/Kansas over as soon as the line came out, but I'm leery of Riley when it comes to running it up. People still think of Oklahoma as a fast tempo team like they were under Stoops, but they almost never speed up the tempo now. If the game is close or OU is behind the Sooners go all out, but Riley has shown in many games--even when he had a senior QB like Mayfield or Murray--that he likes to get a lead, then keep the ball on the ground and take all the clock before he runs a play. A couple of times he's had a drive that lasted almost an entire quarter

I really like my Cal bet, but covid is now an issue. One Cal player tested positive and they are going through the tracing and testing protocol so anything could happen
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I must not have made it that far to hear the stuff about pen st/terps, like usual it generally takes me 2 nights to hear whole thing cause I turn it on pretty late and pass out, I’ll catch the rest tonight. I had never heard that either, pretty interesting.

I don’t dislike cal or any the rest of Steve’s, I just don’t have much of a idea on them or huskies so was pretty much just a pass for me. Bears card other than San Jose st the one I dislike (I assume you do as well being on gators). Not sure how many I’ll be against other than asu but I know I won’t be on any those sides he is out of those, like I said I kinda assume wvu gonna end up on his game day card which I think I will also be on, just havnt been in a hurry with line sitting at 6.5.
 
Far as the sooner/ku total I really just don’t make it a point to get involved with crazy high spreads like that cause I never know how the game flow will go once it decided? I have to have a really good angle to even play a total on those or a belief the dog can hang some points which I have no idea in that one, honestly I didn’t even cap it.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Same here, I was thinking Stanford looked pretty good with that number, but not after listening to Steve. He also said Stanford suffered more than any team from players opting out, losing their two best players with little to replace them.

I like that Liberty/V T Tech over too.

On the Penn St/Maryland game I had never heard there were bad feelings between those two teams, but both guys said Franklin and the Penn St players hates Maryland and will run up the score as high as they can. Steve cited that as his reason for taking the over in that game.

Looked at that Oklahoma/Kansas over as soon as the line came out, but I'm leery of Riley when it comes to running it up. People still think of Oklahoma as a fast tempo team like they were under Stoops, but they almost never speed up the tempo now. If the game is close or OU is behind the Sooners go all out, but Riley has shown in many games--even when he had a senior QB like Mayfield or Murray--that he likes to get a lead, then keep the ball on the ground and take all the clock before he runs a play. A couple of times he's had a drive that lasted almost an entire quarter

I really like my Cal bet, but covid is now an issue. One Cal player tested positive and they are going through the tracing and testing protocol so anything could happen
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Very true about Ok running out clock with big lead.....remember I have over on one of their games last year or year before that, they score over 50 points 1H, I was counting my winnings before they score like 7-10 points second half and game went under. Ok had 1 drive that took almost whole 3rd quarter. Ok knows their D sucks, so Lincoln Riley likes to have their O on the field instead of their D when they have big lead.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Just heard the Cal/Washington game was cancelled. Pac 12 will not rescheduled cancelled games so it's history.

That was a max bet for me, my favorite of the weekend. Pisses me off
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I hate when one I put a bunch of work into gets scratched, that sucks. Fuckin shit starting before they even get a damn game in. I’m so sick this Rona shit, now that election done can’t they make it go away? Lol
 
number2 said:
Very true about Ok running out clock with big lead.....remember I have over on one of their games last year or year before that, they score over 50 points 1H, I was counting my winnings before they score like 7-10 points second half and game went under. Ok had 1 drive that took almost whole 3rd quarter. Ok knows their D sucks, so Lincoln Riley likes to have their O on the field instead of their D when they have big lead.
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I’ve seen teams accidentally score points and in different and stunning ways all year vs ku so I really have no idea I’m sure it could easily get there. I think kst crappy offense scored damn near 60 on them and I don’t think the offense was even all that good. Their d and special teams prob scored much more than those sooner units will but who knows when dealing w the suck that is Kansas? Every week they make that number bigger and every week seems like it gets covered, I know at one point Steve was just fading them every week, guess this number finally big enough to give him pause. But that kinda makes the over a odd choice to me unless he counting on ku to score 20+? Certainly possible vs sooners but tough thing to count on with them. It just don’t make a ton of sense to me as a high percentage play but I didn’t waste much time on it and I been wrong before (on one or 2 ku unders matter a fact, I wouldn’t play that either, lol).
 
2daBank said:
I hate when one I put a bunch of work into gets scratched, that sucks. Fuckin shit starting before they even get a damn game in. I’m so sick this Rona shit, now that election done can’t they make it go away? Lol
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I had to open my mouth, I was all over Air Force, that game scratched now.
 
number2 said:
Actually Kansas is 0-6 ats and 5-0-1 to the over.....
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I know I’ve lost twice trying to play a under in their games, lol. It always a bunch of crazy ass scores too!! I’m not sure why Steve jumped off simply fading them? he was doing that every week for awhile.
 
2daBank said:
I’m not sure why Steve jumped off simply fading them? he was doing that every week for awhile.
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I wondered about that too. I suspect the fact he lost against W Virginia, then saw what happened against Iowas State last week changed his mind.

No way Iowa State was going to cover under normal circumstances. Iowa State wasn't close to covering with four minutes left, but had the game won, and I've never viewed Matt Campbell as a run it up guy, but they went into all out attack mode.

They even went to a hurry-up at one point, scored once, calling time outs when KU had possession, then threw into the end zone with from about the 40 with only seconds left to cover. I never heard an explanation, but it was not the way Iowa State usually plays
 
TahoeLegend said:
I wondered about that too. I suspect the fact he lost against W Virginia, then saw what happened against Iowas State last week changed his mind.

No way Iowa State was going to cover under normal circumstances. Iowa State wasn't close to covering with four minutes left, but had the game won, and I've never viewed Matt Campbell as a run it up guy, but they went into all out attack mode.

They even went to a hurry-up at one point, scored once, calling time outs when KU had possession, then threw into the end zone with from about the 40 with only seconds left to cover. I never heard an explanation, but it was not the way Iowa State usually plays
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oh yea I remember him and SVP talking bout it on bad beats, that was super strange. He just trying to take advantage of the one time his offense doesn’t get shit on? Lol. I wonder how many times SVP has lost on ku? Seems like his kind of team! Lol
 
TahoeLegend said:
Same here, I was thinking Stanford looked pretty good with that number, but not after listening to Steve. He also said Stanford suffered more than any team from players opting out, losing their two best players with little to replace them.
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It would look like the Adebo opt-out is going to hurt.

As for Walter Little, it is important to remember that he basically did not play last season. 1 start and injured out the year with a redshirt. Tree started 3 Frosh OL and naturally they are all back. Rouse started 11 at LT last year as a frosh (Little was to be LT this year before opt-out). Miller started 8 at LG as a frosh, Center is held down by 2nd Tm PAC12 Dalman, RG has Hornibrook who started 6 there last year (or Bragg who started 1) both as frosh and then RT is 3rd Tm PAC12 Sarell. I think the OL has a chance to be pretty good still...assuming Stanford still recruits and develops elite OL. Sure you'd like to have Walker Little in that group, but the fact he isn't there is ok considering all those kids got experience in year 1 last year is a huge plus this year.

Adebo? I have no way to soften that loss. Especially considering one of their other CBs with starting experience transfered to UCLA (Obi Eboh) and likely will have a positive impact for Bruins.
 
s--k said:
It would look like the Adebo opt-out is going to hurt.

As for Walter Little, it is important to remember that he basically did not play last season. 1 start and injured out the year with a redshirt. Tree started 3 Frosh OL and naturally they are all back. Rouse started 11 at LT last year as a frosh (Little was to be LT this year before opt-out). Miller started 8 at LG as a frosh, Center is held down by 2nd Tm PAC12 Dalman, RG has Hornibrook who started 6 there last year (or Bragg who started 1) both as frosh and then RT is 3rd Tm PAC12 Sarell. I think the OL has a chance to be pretty good still...assuming Stanford still recruits and develops elite OL. Sure you'd like to have Walker Little in that group, but the fact he isn't there is ok considering all those kids got experience in year 1 last year is a huge plus this year.

Adebo? I have no way to soften that loss. Especially considering one of their other CBs with starting experience transfered to UCLA (Obi Eboh) and likely will have a positive impact for Bruins.
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yea it seemed like he was way more concerned about the defense. It sounded to me like he had decent hopes that the offense could be pretty good, guess they have to be if they gonna compete cause sounds like they just don’t have the players on d.
 
Stanford Safeties appear solid. It's CB that looks vulnerable. One guy who started as a frosh in Kyu Blu Kelly. And then the other CB and all the depth is guys who have barely played in rFr or Sophs (Turner-Muhammad, Booner and Manley all very little playing time) rounding out the 2-deep.
 
Oregon has one player, Steven Jones, who has started a single game for Ducks entering 2020. They have 3 JUCOs listed as starters (Aumavae-Laulu, Bass and Moore). And then Forsyth who's played in 12 the last 2 years.

Might give them a little benefit considering they have to go against Jordon Scott and Thibodeaux in practice every day. But still. Major question mark. We'll find out what Cristobal can deliver this year with that OL.
 
Regarding MD/PST, history there is that Franklin was the coach in waiting for MD when Friedgen was still there and was his heir apparent. It didn't move along quickly enough for Franklin and he took the Vandy job. After he went to Penn St. there was animosity in particular between him and dick head Randy Edsall where they traded barbs and competed for some of the same players. Franklin definitely has a chip on his shoulder from those days, and loves to rub it in on MD every chance he gets.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Oregon State -1
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initially I wrote them down soon as I saw it but beavers fall into a trend/group of teams I’ve noticed about myself, teams I’ve grown pretty fond of as dogs the last year or 2 and now come into the season as small favs, I have not done well with those thus far in their opening games so as I’ve noticed it I’m becoming more hesitant.
 
Not that I disagree with any. I’m staying away from seattle Buffalo cause I know seattle the better team, I think their d gonna improve, but everyone perception of Buffalo in the toilet now and this gonna be so lopsided seattle action, I’ll just pass there.

as I said I love Tampa as well, I been saying for 2 years saints done and pretty sure the obvious end finally about to come!

Ravens prob right but another I dunno I want any part of.

I could see myself on Washington and/or zona. Agree with everything he said bout Washington and their d vs Danny dimes who I don’t like at all.
 
Jason McIntyre who I like pointed out something interesting. Every team that has played the Steelers the following week have been down at least a touchdown at halftime. I think there prob something to that cause steelers are physical as hell and beat everyone up a little. Ravens offense ain’t exactly humming and Indy plays pretty good d. What scares me bout Indy is I think Balty will be able to get after old man rivers and god you know he will throw a couple terrible picks in this game. I could prob convince myself of a 1st half play on Indy or maybe under?
 
Added San Diego State -9. I see a lot of people like San Jose State here, but I'll stick with SDS unless they show me they don't have the tough guy D they had under Rocky.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added San Diego State -9. I see a lot of people like San Jose State here, but I'll stick with SDS unless they show me they don't have the tough guy D they had under Rocky.
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nothing against sdst at all, im just a big fan of what going on at San Jose st and 10.5 a lot for Aztecs to cover against competitive teams. That said I just got back home and see sjst qb got knocked out in the early going, that could be a real problem for me.
 
Man I’m so bummed bout our QB, I was so looking forward to this game thinking they had a chance to win. Guess I need to just get over it and move on, prey Nash learns to pass quick!
 
Boy, that SJ State D looked better than S D State D, especially the D-Line. I deserve to lost for being so dumb to bet on a Brady Hoke team. They made more mistakes in one game than a Rocky Long team makes in half a season.

Added Phil Steele picks
 
Zeke said:
Yeah me too. Thinking Galloway's regression is starting.
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I actually like that usc seems pretty popular among espn guys and some others cause I was afraid asu might be kinda a trendy dog. I get the idea behind usc, their passing game could absolutely bury asu. I even heard someone say he thought herm might just use this as a rebuilding year cause they got so much youth. I just dunno I buy that and I’m pretty confident bout one thing, given the pandemic and all the issues that has brought, this goofy 9am local start for this game, I feel pretty confident if one team is more prepared for this game it pretty freaking likely it Herm’s boys!! And he does has a qb I know can make some plays!! I think we know pretty early in this one that for sure, just gotta trust coach herm has them ready!
 
I was wrong about wvu making bears board. Looking at the 3 games he has up there I’m pretty confident he be on all 3 favs. Hookies, uga, and Michigan would be my guess.
 
I suppose if one was so inclined asu/usc might be a good game to wait and bet live in-game. To late for me as I’m already committed but as I said we could know how this one plays out early.
 
The game day guys kinda echoing my sentiment on how liberty/vatech could play out. Just gotta hope there no sluggish start by either, that always my biggest worry when playing a early total thst so high!!
 
2daBank said:
I actually like that usc seems pretty popular among espn guys and some others cause I was afraid asu might be kinda a trendy dog. I get the idea behind usc, their passing game could absolutely bury asu. I even heard someone say he thought herm might just use this as a rebuilding year cause they got so much youth. I just dunno I buy that and I’m pretty confident bout one thing, given the pandemic and all the issues that has brought, this goofy 9am local start for this game, I feel pretty confident if one team is more prepared for this game it pretty freaking likely it Herm’s boys!! And he does has a qb I know can make some plays!! I think we know pretty early in this one that for sure, just gotta trust coach herm has them ready!
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The more I looked into ASU's D I have some confidence in them. The back 7 should be good. They move to a 4 man front this year, getting better QB pressure will be a key for that D.

The ASU O is where the bigger questions are. New OC, new OL that should evolve into a better unit this year compared to last, but hard to predict how they play together in game 1. WR is largely unproven out of Darby who is good player, but he isn't and won't be the lead guy, they need an outside guy and that may be true frosh Wilson (very high recruit) and Bunkley-Shelton. A couple other reserves from last year could step up....but...? RB also a question. A JUCO and a Frosh top the 2-deep.

Not sure coaches use anything as a rebuilding year in year 3 instead of pushing to win games especially at the start.

ASU has more questions and unknowns. USC has the high ceiling they always do, but they often fail to reach it. Line is high I believe. USC was -2.5 last year at ASU and Daniels DNP in that one. Now it's 11 with Daniels...an OL that is new, but can't be worse than last year...a D that should be good enough...only thing we don't know, who is going to make the plays with the ball in their hands for ASU. We pretty much know everything about USC.
 
s--k said:
The more I looked into ASU's D I have some confidence in them. The back 7 should be good. They move to a 4 man front this year, getting better QB pressure will be a key for that D.

The ASU O is where the bigger questions are. New OC, new OL that should evolve into a better unit this year compared to last, but hard to predict how they play together in game 1. WR is largely unproven out of Darby who is good player, but he isn't and won't be the lead guy, they need an outside guy and that may be true frosh Wilson (very high recruit) and Bunkley-Shelton. A couple other reserves from last year could step up....but...? RB also a question. A JUCO and a Frosh top the 2-deep.

Not sure coaches use anything as a rebuilding year in year 3 instead of pushing to win games especially at the start.

ASU has more questions and unknowns. USC has the high ceiling they always do, but they often fail to reach it. Line is high I believe. USC was -2.5 last year at ASU and Daniels DNP in that one. Now it's 11 with Daniels...an OL that is new, but can't be worse than last year...a D that should be good enough...only thing we don't know, who is going to make the plays with the ball in their hands for ASU. We pretty much know everything about USC.
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I think his premise was cause the situation of this season Herm may use this as a building type year with all the youngsters, maybe rebuilding was wrong word. I dunno, I didn’t really agree with it when I heard it but it was Stanford Steve on the podcast I believe so he have to say how he meant it, lol. Regardless I’m on asu and nothing changing that at this point!!! So LFG Herm!!
 
I feel like Daniels in his second year should be able to elevate the new pieces around him. Steve kinda sounded like he was skeptical of where his ceiling was and how he do without a guy like Ayuck (I know I spelled that wrong, lol. The kind on niners now).
 
2daBank said:
I think his premise was cause the situation of this season Herm may use this as a building type year with all the youngsters, maybe rebuilding was wrong word. I dunno, I didn’t really agree with it when I heard it but it was Stanford Steve on the podcast I believe so he have to say how he meant it, lol. Regardless I’m on asu and nothing changing that at this point!!! So LFG Herm!!
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That would be the second thing I heard Stanford Steve said then that seems off.

How can "Stanford have suffered more than any team from opt-outs" when they only lost one opt-out from players who actually played in 2019, vs this week's opponent in Oregon who suffered 4 including 3 starters in their secondary and their #1 OL who actually played in '19 vs Stanford's who didn't? Maybe we, or maybe I, shouldn't take some of these people's comments so literally, but they do shape the public's perception of the teams and personnel when it could be fairly inaccurate.
 
s--k said:
That would be the second thing I heard Stanford Steve said then that seems off.

How can "Stanford have suffered more than any team from opt-outs" when they only lost one opt-out from players who actually played in 2019, vs this week's opponent in Oregon who suffered 4 including 3 starters in their secondary and their #1 OL who actually played in '19 vs Stanford's who didn't? Maybe we, or maybe I, shouldn't take some of these people's comments so literally, but they do shape the public's perception of the teams and personnel when it could be fairly inaccurate.
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true. I don’t really let anyone sway me much but I do respect some opinions and his in pac-12 usually one of those. He was belly aching pretty bad about how devastating opt outs been on trees. Maybe he just being more fan boy there than realist? But then on the other hand I know he hates Cal yet has a bet on them to win the pac12 so obviously his loyalty wasn’t in the way there.
 
are bears “bank picks” the one he post on the board on game day? I never remember even tho I know it been explained, lol. If so the only addition to his card would be vatech I believe.
 
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