ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 6

holy shit,, i shouldnt have screwed around waiting on gtech, turns out there some agreement with me that line was short!!! hate losing that kind of value but i dont think it matters, i wouldnt have liked tech if i thought it was a one score game anyways.
 
2daBank said:
been trying to talk myself into Ou anyways, horns defense the worst unit that take the field imo..
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Same here. I feel like everything from a handicapping standpoint says OU, but I'm still not willing to pull the trigger. I'm no fan of Rattler and don't feel like risking money on him even though OU clearly has the best defense, has a good running D, and the best kicker. So I'll likely poss

Added:
Nebraska +3x
Texas Tech +2x
I'm taking Kentucky, but the line has been jumping back and forth between -2 and -2x and I've been just missing the -2x. I'll lay that if I can't get -2 by kickoff, but will wait to the last minute if I have to.

Still like BYU, but that line got away from me. it was -4 when I first saw it, but I spent so much time trying to get the best number on Iowa and Nebraska I missed the BYU number. Now it's up to 6 or 6x. I still like them, but I'll wait till tomorrow afternoon and make up my mind.

Still like Tennessee and V Tech, but those lines are static so I'll take my time.

The only ACC game I see of interest is Louisville/ UVA, 2daBank. You retained your title as king of the ACC with your Pitt pick last week, what do you see in this game?
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Had them at the top of my list at the beginning of the week. They are my kind of team and I love to bet them, but they are so unreliable on the road. How do you see this one going?
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a real freaking grind!! i remember last time they played i was on wyo+13, if memory serves me right it was a 7 point game most the second half, wyo kept getting the ball back and kept falling to get a drive past the 50, then with like 2-4 min left they gave it back to AF, ya thought in good shape they just run out the clock and they hit them for like a 90 yard bomb on wr running all alone!! gave them the 1 point cover and wyo got to maybe the 30 or so looking for the back door and threw a pick.. pretty sure that was back when chambers could never stay healthy and wyo was on backup qb i cant remember his name, seems like chambers been there forever but never has a full season of health!!

back to this one,,, wyo run d numbers nothing to brag about vs not that tough of run games but dont think it would matter here if they had a great run d on paper or a awful run d, they somewhere in between but dont matter since defending af run game nothing like defending others!! wyo has a history of doing pretty well stopping the option so i trust Bohl and his staff to have his team prepared. he has beaten AF 4 out of the 6 meetings straight up with the only non cover that kick in the nuts i spoke of above!! they have beaten them outright as 3 and 13 point dogs,. on the road a fair concern but at least wyo played a fee and have been competitive when going to falcon stadium,, both teams been fantastic on 3rd downs so i expect the clock to fly.. i think chambers will be able to make some plays when they need them, just enough to keep feeding Valladay (another kid feels like been there forever!),, i think af good looking run d a product of schedule, the only back they have seen i think on Valladay level is the tyler kid from utah st and he gashed them, obviously wyo does it in a different way but i do think they be able to bully af a bit as they always undersized..dont see either team scoring more than 3 tds and both kickers look ugly on paper but af is even worse! that could be big as AF been tough in the red zone, i think it something like 24-20 one way or the other, so while 5 not exactly a key number i could see it coming into play here as i think this game comes down to the wire.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Same here. I feel like everything from a handicapping standpoint says OU, but I'm still not willing to pull the trigger. I'm no fan of Rattler and don't feel like risking money on him even though OU clearly has the best defense, has a good running D, and the best kicker. So I'll likely poss

Added:
Nebraska +3x
Texas Tech +2x
I'm taking Kentucky, but the line has been jumping back and forth between -2 and -2x and I've been just missing the -2x. I'll lay that if I can't get -2 by kickoff, but will wait to the last minute if I have to.

Still like BYU, but that line got away from me. it was -4 when I first saw it, but I spent so much time trying to get the best number on Iowa and Nebraska I missed the BYU number. Now it's up to 6 or 6x. I still like them, but I'll wait till tomorrow afternoon and make up my mind.

Still like Tennessee and V Tech, but those lines are static so I'll take my time.

The only ACC game I see of interest is Louisville/ UVA, 2daBank. You retained your title as king of the ACC with you Pitt pick last week, what do you see in this game?
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yea ya know how i feel bout rattler!! lol.. pass for me also even tho i feel like ill be kicking myself,. all the value on Ou which probably another thing that makes this tough for me, im so used to backing texas getting around a td, cant even remember last time i leaned Ou!! they usually not a buy low team!! i still might talk myself into..

i have ville on my lean list, im back to liking satterfield again (i have had a back and forth relationship with how i feel bout him!),, i been winning w ville all year (acc crown! lol), faded them vs rebs and been on them against ucf and fsu (that was easy play of course), in a game that features explosive offenses i think ville has the better d, certainly not great but i dont think they the pushovers uva is on the defensive side.. think ville will have more success on the ground, both will light it up thru the air but i think ville can get pressure which will get them off the field a few more times than uva,, not sure i want to play it tho cause just know it gonna be one them games where no lead is safe!!

speaking of lines getting away from us, gtech my favorite acc play of the week, pretty sure that was -2.5 at one point and now it freaking -4.5!!.. as much as pitt was a awful matchup for the yellow jackets i think the opposite is true with duke!! perfect acc type spot with tech getting destroyed at home last week to bounce back here and look like world beaters!! they the way more battle tested team and i have no doubt they will be able to run and stop the run in this one,. if duke cant run think they will have issues.,. still like them laying -4.5 as i think they win by dd..

had to wait on BYU, i think it was worth getting a worse line to make sure one of Hall or Romney was gonna play,, -6 doesnt bother me, i like anything better than -7.. they gonna gash boise for 250+ on the ground imo.. boise has that one wr who will do some damage vs cougs secondary but i suspect byu gonna get home on my favorite ball holding qb and force a lot of bad plays of which he excels at!!
 
TahoeLegend said:
Ib49ers found Maldonado ML picks so I posted them. Also posted Kezirian picks
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which way did you lean in uva/ville? i suppose uva having the mini bye could be a adv but it also their 2nd straight road game. line seems short, power rankings have uva few spots ahead but i dont agree with that, i have ville as the better team, i dont really like transitive property but ville gave wake everything they wanted at wake while wake destroyed uva at their house!! i wrote down -4 for it so def lean ville, but like i said it one them games where no lead be safe... if it is tight uva been awful in the red zone.
 
card so far:

ecu+10
wvu+3
gtech-4,5
wyo+5
byu-6
ark/rebs un 66.5
psu/iowa un41

im so close to saying fuck it and playing Ou, no matter what i do there im gonna regret it! lol.. lot of road teams which i suppose not super unusual for me, kinda a ugly/obscure type card but is what it is. cant go playing games just cause i wanna watch them!!
 
oh i almost forgot im pretty sure ill be on auburn tt under and of course the bama 1st half! lol
 
2daBank said:
which way did you lean in uva/ville
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Strong lean to The Ville. I think they are the tougher team and have better athletes. But I also see the same thing you do, UVa can score fast and they never stop trying, no matter how far behind they get. I can see the Ville getting a lead, relaxing, then UVa comes back late like they did with Miami

The thing I don't have a feel for is which team is more likely to be up for the game
 
2daBank said:
and of course the bama 1st half
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Same here.

A good friend who is a pretty good handicapper told me today he is playing Bama and Georgia for $1,000 each, plus a two-team parlay of Bama/Georgia for $1,000 every week for the rest of the season. He said the only exception is when Bama plays their non-conference game and if someone gets hurt.

He sent me all the math about how he is positive he will finish in the black doing it, but I haven't had time to look it over.

I'm going to bed and let my subconscious work on these games and get back on it tomorrow
 
TahoeLegend said:
Strong lean to The Ville. I think they are the tougher team and have better athletes. But I also see the same thing you do, UVa can score fast and they never stop trying, no matter how far behind they get. I can see the Ville getting a lead, relaxing, then UVa comes back late like they did with Miami

The thing I don't have a feel for is which team is more likely to be up for the game
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could be a good game to live bet? wouldnt have a problem getting down on either if they fall behind.. in a perfect world end up with some plus money or points on both sides!!! id think motivation a wash,, with the acc so wide open for the 1st time certainly think a team like ville has to be thinking they have as good a chance as anyone to win it.. the demise of clemson has really made things interesting! dont expect wake to stay undefeated much longer, actually think they lose this week, cuse just a really tough team to back cause ya cant really cap it and figure out how they gonna win!! :Lol
 
TahoeLegend said:
Same here.

A good friend who is a pretty good handicapper told me today he is playing Bama and Georgia for $1,000 each, plus a two-team parlay of Bama/Georgia for $1,000 every week for the rest of the season. He said the only exception is when Bama plays their non-conference game and if someone gets hurt.

He sent me all the math about how he is positive he will finish in the black doing it, but I haven't had time to look it over.

I'm going to bed and let my subconscious work on these games and get back on it tomorrow
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we were doing math on simply starting with 110 and rolling it over every week on bama 1st half, 6 weeks would be over 5k!! cant believe havnt thought of before now, i am gonna start this week tho!!! actually think ill start with little more.. regardless instead of putting same amount every week im gonna put in a rollover fund and see what happens!
 
I know I should probably know the answer, but what does the x mean next to some of the picks/#s? Does that mean best bet or something?
 
TahoeLegend said:
Same here.

A good friend who is a pretty good handicapper told me today he is playing Bama and Georgia for $1,000 each, plus a two-team parlay of Bama/Georgia for $1,000 every week for the rest of the season. He said the only exception is when Bama plays their non-conference game and if someone gets hurt.

He sent me all the math about how he is positive he will finish in the black doing it, but I haven't had time to look it over.

I'm going to bed and let my subconscious work on these games and get back on it tomorrow
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He playing them money line or ATS?
 
not sure how i missed this one cause it on my lean least but just looking at for the 1st time now.. how the hell does nde/vatech get over 47? i sure as hell cant find points in that game outside defensive and special teams plays!! irish cant run the damn ball at all and they just as bad in pass pro, hookies get after the qb! anyone remember what they did to unc crappy pass protection? same thing on other side, both teams gonna be facing 3rd and long all night and both qbs gonna be under duress! both defenses great on 3rd down, both offenses terrible in the red zone if they do actually drive the field, neither d gives up big plays so points gonna have to be thanks to good field position, long as both qbs continue protecting the ball which both pretty decent at i just dont see where the points come from? no damn way this should be higher than 44 imo, havnt seen this game getting talked about at all.. kinda think irish drop a second straight as playing here at night is no picnic but i feel way better with the under..
 
2daBank said:
kinda think irish drop a second straight as playing here at night is no picnic but i feel way better with the under..
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I've liked V Tech all week with this one. I've like V Tech at home at night for a long time. Line is moving my way too I think. Yesterday it was V Tech -1, this morning it's anywhere from that to pick to V Tech +1. I'll wait all day and see what happens with this line just before kickoff. The one thing that bothers me is N Dame's schedule is far tougher than V Tech. I agree with you on the under though.

Added Baylor ML. Every public handicapper is against me on this one so the line moved my way on this one too. I got -120. I see why people like WV, but I like Baylor at home
 
TahoeLegend said:
I've liked V Tech all week with this one. I've like V Tech at home at night for a long time. Line is moving my way too I think. Yesterday it was V Tech -1, this morning it's anywhere from that to pick to V Tech +1. I'll wait all day and see what happens with this line just before kickoff. The one thing that bothers me is N Dame's schedule is far tougher than V Tech. I agree with you on the under though.

Added Baylor ML. Every public handicapper is against me on this one so the line moved my way on this one too. I got -120. I see why people like WV, but I like Baylor at home
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i thought baylor was the pretty popular side around forum world? felt on my own with wvu but cant be true since ya said line came down under 3.. mfers, wvu was mine alone all week before those wanna be sharps jumped in!!! lol.. ya know me, my play entirely matchup based not fading perception so much.. we already talked at length so not gonna rehash...

i agree, if you like vetech i would def stick with them, it no joke when they come into the stadium playing enter sandman!! i just cant find points in that one no matter how hard i squint! knowing hookies points prob come from special teams, both defenses capable of scoring a td, the way i see it is even if we get 3 special teams/defensive scores i still think it stays under!! without those i dont see how either team surpasses 20?

i ended up splitting arky/rebs total between 1st half and game, just cause i got +110 on under 31.5 1st half, loved that value.. sorry im so late coming back but had a busy ass morning so just getting home..
 
tried to get home in time to live bet sooners down 14-0 but by time i walked in they were driving and it was down.. anyone know where it was live after horns took the 2 td lead? im assuming Ou was plus money and catching at least 4-6 points!! maybe even 7?
 
2daBank said:
i just cant find points in that one no matter how hard i squint! knowing hookies points prob come from special teams, both defenses capable of scoring a td, the way i see it is even
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I see it the same way and it's why I haven't pulled the trigger yet. I prefer to have a team that can score points if they have to and I just don't have faith in the V Tech offense. I see it the same way you do--an interception or fumble or missed FG decides it.
 
2daBank said:
oh i almost forgot im pretty sure ill be on auburn tt under and of course the bama 1st half! lol
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Haven't bet Bama first half yet, but I'll do it before the game starts.

We were right on Rattler. The kid just cannot run the Riley offense. Williams came in and the offense immediately started clicking. I almost got my OU/Texas over cover by halftime and got the Tennessee cover by the end of the first quarter

Adding BYU and Kentucky just before game time. I gained a half point on each line by waiting and looks to me like money must be coming in on Boise because I see -5 although I can't get it so far.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Haven't bet Bama first half yet, but I'll do it before the game starts.

We were right on Rattler. The kid just cannot run the Riley offense. Williams came in and the offense immediately started clicking. I almost got my OU/Texas over cover by halftime and got the Tennessee cover by the end of the first quarter

Adding BYU and Kentucky just before game time. I gained a half point on each line by waiting and looks to me like money must be coming in on Boise because I see -5 although I can't get it so far.
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yea i hate that kid.. i had a feeling the morning was gonna be my bad section of the card this week, i came close to simply skipping but couldnt do it, just played lighter than rest of day, didnt key any parlays or anything on these games.. i did go ahead and grab ville-2.5.. bana was up to freaking -12,5 1sthalf, usually it doesnt hurt to wait but did this week.. good call by you guys on Baylor, wvu wasnt ready, i was dead wrong there..
 
Adding BYU -5x as soon as the telecast starts and I make sure one of their QBs is starting. Latest I heard was that both may be ready, but I'm going to make sure

I doubt Rattler ever starts a game for OU again unless Williams is injured. Pretty spectacular fall--from Heisman favorite to riding the pine by the fifth game.

I passed on the Ville. I liked it, but finally decided against it
 
TahoeLegend said:
Haven't bet Bama first half yet, but I'll do it before the game starts.

We were right on Rattler. The kid just cannot run the Riley offense. Williams came in and the offense immediately started clicking. I almost got my OU/Texas over cover by halftime and got the Tennessee cover by the end of the first quarter

Adding BYU and Kentucky just before game time. I gained a half point on each line by waiting and looks to me like money must be coming in on Boise because I see -5 although I can't get it so far.
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far as byu goes i saw it came back down, doesnt bother me cept it concerned me we might be on 3rd string qb? freaking ncaa injusry reports are a joke, couldnt find anything more current than a few days ago saying Hall sounded like he was gonna play,, no idea if Romney out of concussion protocal or whatever they have at this level? makes me so mad!! llol
 
2daBank said:
tried to get home in time to live bet sooners down 14-0 but by time i walked in they were driving and it was down.. anyone know where it was live after horns took the 2 td lead? im assuming Ou was plus money and catching at least 4-6 points!! maybe even 7?
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Lol I checked on my bookie it was only oklahoma +3.5….they knew…. I got at +11.5 when down 28-7 and was highest i had seen
 
Added Kentucky -2

Passed on V Tech. After watching Louisville/Virginia and Wake Forest/Syracuse ACC teams are too wild for me
 
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