• PICK CLUB WEEK #1 LINES ARE POSTED!

ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 1

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
The Stanford Steve/Bear podcast is no more. Don’t know if The Bear is making public picks this year. I see promos saying Steve is making his ATS picks on a podcast called Race For The Ribeye, matching his picks against Reece Davis and Pete Thamel. It’s late Friday night so I don’t know if I will even have his picks in time to post them

Three seasons is a large enough base to judge a handicapper. Of the guys I’ve been tracking I rate Stanford Steve #1. Adam Kramer was excellent last year, but that’s only for one year. SVP was very good the last two years, poor the previous two, so the jury is still out on him

Dropping the Gameday Super Dog pickers this year. They are all respectable. Corso has the best record over the last three. Phil Steele is a little better than his record. He can’t resist picking FCS games and can’t resist picking teams with the worst records and he wins about 20% of those picks. Does okay on the others

Greg McElroy is the only Daily Wager guy I see as a good handicapper. I’ll track him. The other guys provide great info, but struggle to stay in the black. Not sure Kezerian understands the concept of handicapping. My record looks better than it is. I finished in the black last year, but only because I got lucky breaks over and over.

Hope you guys will post picks from good handicappers like you have in the past

Stanford Steve—Three Year Record (103-79)
Duke +13 Best Bet Win

The Bear—(1-3) Three Year Record (98-89)
Washington - Win
S Bama + Lose
Purdue - Lose
MTSU + Lose

Scott Van Pelt—(5-3) Three Year Record (164-125)
No Illinois +8x Win
Fresno St +3x Win
UTSA -2 Lose
Toledo +9x Win
So Alabama +6x Lose
Old Dominion +16 Lose
Florida St +2x Win
Duke +13 Win

Gameday Super Dog Picks, Season Record
David——(8-5) 2021 Season 8-6
Kirk——(6-7) 2021 Season 9-4-1
Desmond—(6-7) 2021 Season 9-5
Reece——(6-7) 2021 Season 9-5
Lee— 2021 Season 10-3-1

Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(6-3) (69-49)
Fresno St +4 Win
UTSA -1 Lose
LSU -2x Lose
Washington/Boise St o 58x Win
N Carolina -2x Win
N Texas +6x Lose
UConn/N Caro St u 46x Win
SMU -20x Win
Texas A&M -38 Win

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Three Year Record (94-100)

Phil Steele— Three Year Record (120-119)

Pamela Maldonado— Three Year Record (50-53)

My Picks— (0-2) Three Year Record (150-97)
Week Zero:
N Dame -21 4x Rare opportunity in this one
Week One:
LSU ML 5x May still go max bet on this one Lose
LSU -2x 1x Lose


ESPN D-League Pickers:
Tyler Fulghum—Two Year Record (38-31)

Greg McElroy—(1-2) (23-16)

Joe Fortenbaugh— (1-2) Two Year Record (45-41)
Utah/Florida u 45x Win
TCU -20x Lose
LSU -Lose
Season Win Picks
Notre Dame u 9 wins
Ariz State u 4x
Bama u 10x
Texas o 9x

Doug Kezirian— Two Year Record (39-52)

MLDog Pickers:
Bill Bender—(0-3) (15-24) 2021 (9-30)

Mike DeCourcy—(1-2) (14-25) 2021 (15-24)

Zac Al-Khateeb—(0-3) (7-32) 2021 (17-23)

Bill Trocci—(1-2) (10-29) 2021 (16-23)
 
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TahoeLegend said:
The Stanford Steve/Bear podcast is no more. Don’t know if The Bear is making public picks this year. I see promos saying Steve is making his ATS picks on a podcast called Race For The Ribeye, matching his picks against Reece Davis and Pete Thamel. It’s late Friday night so I don’t know if I will even have his picks in time to post them

Three seasons is a large enough base to judge a handicapper. Of the guys I’ve been tracking I rate Stanford Steve #1. Adam Kramer was excellent last year, but that’s only for one year. SVP was very good the last two years, poor the previous two, so the jury is still out on him

Dropping the Gameday Super Dog pickers this year. They are all respectable. Corso has the best record over the last three. Phil Steele is a little better than his record. He can’t resist picking FCS games and can’t resist picking teams with the worst records and he wins about 20% of those picks. Does okay on the others

Greg McElroy is the only Daily Wager guy I see as a good handicapper. I’ll track him. The other guys provide great info, but struggle to stay in the black. Not sure Kezerian understands the concept of handicapping. My record looks better than it is. I finished in the black last year, but only because I got lucky breaks over and over.

Hope you guys will post picks from good handicappers like you have in the past

Stanford Steve—Three Year Record (103-79)

The Bear—Three Year Record (98-89)

Scott Van Pelt—Three Year Record (164-125)

Gameday Super Dog Picks, Season Record
David——(8-5) 2021 Season 8-6
Kirk——(6-7) 2021 Season 9-4-1
Desmond—(6-7) 2021 Season 9-5
Reece——(6-7) 2021 Season 9-5
Lee— 2021 Season 10-3-1

Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(6-3) (69-49)

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Three Year Record (94-100)

Phil Steele— Three Year Record (120-119)

Pamela Maldonado— Three Year Record (50-53)

My Picks— Three Year Record (150-97)
Week Zero:
N Dame -21 4x Rare opportunity in this one
Week One:
LSU ML 5x May still go max bet on this one
LSU -2x 1x
Don’t see anything else for now. Tempted by TCU, Utah, S Carolina. I know Sonny Dykes will put up 50 or so. Liked Utah all week, but just found out the QB is out. As for South Carolina, it doesn’t seem like a sound strategy to bet on the same QB I’ve been winning money against for two years

ESPN D-League Pickers:
Tyler Fulghum—Two Year Record (38-31)

Greg McElroy—(1-2) (23-16)

Joe Fortenbaugh— Two Year Record (45-41)
Notre Dame u 9 wins
Ariz State u 4x
Bama u 10x
Texas o 9x

Doug Kezirian— Two Year Record (39-52)

MLDog Pickers:
Bill Bender—(0-3) (15-24) 2021 (9-30)

Mike DeCourcy—(1-2) (14-25) 2021 (15-24)

Zac Al-Khateeb—(0-3) (7-32) 2021 (17-23)

Bill Trocci—(1-2) (10-29) 2021 (16-23)
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"Bear Bets" Pod. It is out now - this morning.

So far he has said he bet these games and this season all his selections will be games he has bet:
Washington -14 (Boise) WIN
SoBama +6.5 (Tulane) LOSE
MTSU+39 (Bama) LOSE
Purdue -3.5 (Fresno) LOSE
"Best Bet" is TCU Team Total Over 41.5 WIN

His co-host, Geoff Schwartz, is giving a "best bet" on PAC 12 each week. This week is: Wazzu@ColSt UNDER 54.5 LOSE

Bear's Leans:
Florida State vs LSU and said to take the 2.5 points if he had to play it
He believes TXTech could be a 'rock flight' and would not be surprised to see the score TxTech 17-13 in the 4th Qtr.

On Futures he likes LSU Under 9.5;

He and the guys he's with on the show had a lot of negatives against Colorado for season and re 1st game against TCU

I'll be listening to Bet the Board later today. Thanks @TahoeLegend for the thread
 
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bones said:
"Bear Bets" Pod. It is out now - this morning.

So far he has said he bet these games and this season all his selections will be games he has bet:
Washington -14 (Boise)
SoBama +6.5 (Tulane)
MTSU+39 (Bama)
Purdue -3.5 (Fresno)
"Best Bet" is TCU Team Total Over 41.5

His co-host, Geoff Schwartz, is giving a "best bet" on PAC 12 each week. This week is: Wazzu@ColSt UNDER 54.5

Bear's Leans:
Florida State vs LSU and said to take the 2.5 points if he had to play it
He believes TXTech could be a 'rock flight' and would not be surprised to see the score TxTech 17-13 in the 4th Qtr.

On Futures he likes LSU Under 9.5;

He and the guys he's with on the show had a lot of negatives against Colorado for season and re 1st game against TCU

I'll be listening to Bet the Board later today. Thanks @TahoeLegend for the thread
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Was bear pod good? I don’t really care so much what his or anyones plays are, did they have content worth listening to?

Unless it came out today I havnt seen a ncaa pod from the BTB guys yet. I been looking every night and all I’ve seen up were nfl division previews I didn’t really care bout.
 
We both have faded and talked bad bout Rattler a ton but don’t you think he looked like a different guy the last month or so last year? I’m not ready to crown him or anything but I’m also far removed from thinking he close to the autofade he once was!! Especially against a perpetually overrated underachieving mac brown Tar Heel team who doesn’t play a lick of defense and if memory serves me right looked really soft facing a totally inferior vtech squad in last year opener! I think scary is better coached, more battle tested, most certainly tougher, has to play better defense, sure I’d take Maye over even a improved Rattler all day every day but if the lightbulb did click for Rattler (who was at one time very highly rated) and he continues to play anywhere close to the level he did closing out last season I think unc in trouble. Might just be a pass for me but I have no interest backing unc against anyone with a pulse, certainly not against a sec team I have no doubt is mentally and physically tougher than heels. At some point I decided I was done being tricked by the talent on mac browns heels, they just don’t have the guts or heart to match.
 
2daBank said:
Was bear pod good? I don’t really care so much what his or anyones plays are, did they have content worth listening to?

Unless it came out today I havnt seen a ncaa pod from the BTB guys yet. I been looking every night and all I’ve seen up were nfl division previews I didn’t really care bout.
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Bear was good and had reasons for his selections, but not too much analysis. Next week I will post what he said his reasons were. And "no" it was not as good as Stanford Steve and Bear - I like Stanford better than Bear when they were together

Here is what I recall about today.

On the TCU team points he said Dykes does not like Deion and that he believes he will run up the score if he can. Basically said Colorado is very bad

Re Purdue it sounded as if the bet was situational and believed that while Purdue is not going to be as good as last year neither will Fresno w/o Havener (sp?). I have not checked out line movement, but evidently it has come down(?) and he thinks it is over-reaction. His angle was something like "When they set line @ -3.5 people think 'I can win with a fg and when its -2.5 I lose with a fg victory.'" In those situations he likes to lay the -3.5

On SoBama, all I recall is him talking about their Defense and coaching staff, which he likes.

On MTSU he likes their defense, thinks Bama may use several QBs and will not want to show too much of their offense with Longhorns coming up. Thought is they have a lead in 4th qtr that Saban does not like to run the score up against these teams. He does not think MTSU will score any more than 7 points. I think he said something akinto "I can see a 45-7 game." (not much room for error there)

I do not remember what he said about Washington.

Geoff Schwartz is a PAC 4 announcer each week and played at Oregon. He bragged on his PAC 12 selections (which they also called the PAC4) and essentially said Wazzu/ColState will be low scoring. I recall that he said something like it could be a 24-17 type of game (?)
 
bones said:
Bear was good and had reasons for his selections, but not too much analysis. Next week I will post what he said his reasons were. And "no" it was not as good as Stanford Steve and Bear - I like Stanford better than Bear when they were together

Here is what I recall about today.

On the TCU team points he said Dykes does not like Deion and that he believes he will run up the score if he can. Basically said Colorado is very bad

Re Purdue it sounded as if the bet was situational and believed that while Purdue is not going to be as good as last year neither will Fresno w/o Havener (sp?). I have not checked out line movement, but evidently it has come down(?) and he thinks it is over-reaction. His angle was something like "When they set line @ -3.5 people think 'I can win with a fg and when its -2.5 I lose with a fg victory.'" In those situations he likes to lay the -3.5

On SoBama, all I recall is him talking about their Defense and coaching staff, which he likes.

On MTSU he likes their defense, thinks Bama may use several QBs and will not want to show too much of their offense with Longhorns coming up. Thought is they have a lead in 4th qtr that Saban does not like to run the score up against these teams. He does not think MTSU will score any more than 7 points. I think he said something akinto "I can see a 45-7 game." (not much room for error there)

I do not remember what he said about Washington.

Geoff Schwartz is a PAC 4 announcer each week and played at Oregon. He bragged on his PAC 12 selections (which they also called the PAC4) and essentially said Wazzu/ColState will be low scoring. I recall that he said something like it could be a 24-17 type of game (?)
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I appreciate the effort brother but you don’t have to do all that! If it worth listening to I will, I love this time of year cause pods do kinda help me sleep a bit! I agree Steve carried their pod imo, but honestly it had gotten to the point some weeks were still pretty good but others were a total waste of time with bear filling time complaining bout his schedule and flight plans as if anyone gives a flying fuck!! Or him shamelessly plugging whatever eatery he stuffed his face at so he no doubt gets free meals!! I wish they woulda stayed together but it has basically gotten to the point maybe half the shows in the season were good and the other half were a waste of time outside the couple minutes Steve would give us stanford scoops!

Where is Stanford Steve now? Think I heard he still w espn and doing gameday? Good for him but I never watch that shit. Lol. He have a pod?

Colorado was at least as bad if not worse last year and if I recall correctly Dykes offense wasn’t running up any score, they looked pretty awful in the 1st half I think.
 
2daBank said:
I appreciate the effort brother but you don’t have to do all that! If it worth listening to I will, I love this time of year cause pods do kinda help me sleep a bit! I agree Steve carried their pod imo, but honestly it had gotten to the point some weeks were still pretty good but others were a total waste of time with bear filling time complaining bout his schedule and flight plans as if anyone gives a flying fuck!! Or him shamelessly plugging whatever eatery he stuffed his face at so he no doubt gets free meals!! I wish they woulda stayed together but it has basically gotten to the point maybe half the shows in the season were good and the other half were a waste of time outside the couple minutes Steve would give us stanford scoops!

Where is Stanford Steve now? Think I heard he still w espn and doing gameday? Good for him but I never watch that shit. Lol. He have a pod?
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yes he is...and I too quit watching game day for the most part.
 
bones said:
yes he is...and I too quit watching game day for the most part.
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It’s not just my dislike of espn but I’m typically at casino Saturday morning or chopping it up w ya’ll. I much rather talk bout this stuff w you guys than listen to bunch of made for tv bobble heads pander to idiots in between special interest pieces on some person in wheelchair or messed up dying kid hanging out w team. I got enough my own life shit, I’m trying to forget bout for a few hours not hear others sob stories! Lol
 
bones said:
Bear, or the co-host, essentially said that all the other coaches do not like Deion.
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When everyone hates ya it just means you doing something very right. Mfers can’t stand to see others shine, especially when that person found a better way to the top that didn’t include years of kissing Ass and paying dues! Keep hating Prime cause your old ass had to be somebody bitch for 20 years before getting a chance!!
 
I’d love to bet buffs cause fuck Sonny dykes and his luckbox ass run last year! Mfer didn’t even want Duggan to start, he picked mortis to go up to Colorado and barely move the ball. He lucky the ginger with the Golden Horseshoe up his butt didn’t transfer! I think tcu falls way off but I have no idea wtf Colorado got going on. Think I heard Prime say he had 22 dudes who could play w these other s schools but unfortunately those schools have 60-70 those dudes!
 
Yea from the fan in me, as much as I like to flip around on this kinda weekend I’ll be glued to see Colorado. So curious.
Tom Lungunbill(sp) who runs espn recruiting (not that they are the premium source for that all, but he’s been there for years and he is pretty decent in my book) also said it’s gonna be rough rough.

I don’t think it’s an agenda either way, it’s just something totally different with Deion.
 
twinkie13 said:
Yea from the fan in me, as much as I like to flip around on this kinda weekend I’ll be glued to see Colorado. So curious.
Tom Lungunbill(sp) who runs espn recruiting (not that they are the premium source for that all, but he’s been there for years and he is pretty decent in my book) also said it’s gonna be rough rough.

I don’t think it’s an agenda either way, it’s just something totally different with Deion.
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He a little religious for my taste but whether they like him or not he gonna most likely get Colorado decent then get a better job where he prob be competing for championships. Dude a winner., I have no clue why he rather do this than enjoy all his money but I’m sure he wouldn’t be doing it unless he planned on winning.
 
2daBank said:
When everyone hates ya it just means you doing something very right. Mfers can’t stand to see others shine, especially when that person found a better way to the top that didn’t include years of kissing Ass and paying dues! Keep hating Prime cause your old ass had to be somebody bitch for 20 years before getting a chance!!
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I agree 1000% in principle. That was my first thought too. I generally favor those who are disliked by the crowd or the experts
 
bones said:
I agree 1000% in principle. That was my first thought too. I generally favor those who are disliked by the crowd or the experts
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I think tcu did pull away in 2nd half last year week 1 against buffs but if I recall correctly Dykes started Morris and the offense looked like stir fried shit majority of the 1st half. I assume Colorado is at least slightly better now? Obviously tcu players should have a better understanding of the system now but they replacing a lot. Is Morris back to being the qb? I could prob talk myself into buffs 1st half if it was on today or Friday. I’m sure I’ll find things I like better for Saturday. Lol.
 
2daBank said:
We both have faded and talked bad bout Rattler a ton but don’t you think he looked like a different guy the last month or so last year? I’m not ready to crown him or anything but I’m also far removed from thinking he close to the autofade he once was!! Especially against a perpetually overrated underachieving mac brown Tar Heel team who doesn’t play a lick of defense and if memory serves me right looked really soft facing a totally inferior vtech squad in last year opener! I think scary is better coached, more battle tested, most certainly tougher, has to play better defense, sure I’d take Maye over even a improved Rattler all day every day but if the lightbulb did click for Rattler (who was at one time very highly rated) and he continues to play anywhere close to the level he did closing out last season I think unc in trouble. Might just be a pass for me but I have no interest backing unc against anyone with a pulse, certainly not against a sec team I have no doubt is mentally and physically tougher than heels. At some point I decided I was done being tricked by the talent on mac browns heels, they just don’t have the guts or heart to match.
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I still think Rattler is a tease but is capable of doing highlight reel stuff to win a game and he just happened to have two good games to finish out the season. That being said he is playing the UNC defense this week.
 
He Hate Me said:
I still think Rattler is a tease but is capable of doing highlight reel stuff to win a game and he just happened to have two good games to finish out the season. That being said he is playing the UNC defense this week.
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You know I been one the charter members of our rattler bashing crew for years! I’m def not ready to say he is now a dark horse heisman candidate which I’ve actually heard mumbled places! Not sure I’m willing to just dismiss those games either, I’m pretty sure talent hasn’t ever been his problem considering how highly touted he was. There at least the possibility he a late bloomer, couldn’t handle his own hype, or any number of things that can prevent a kid from reaching his potential. Maybe it just took a lot a failure for him to realize he needed to make changes? Maybe this coaching staff was able to figure out his issues or relate to him in a way that he understood? I don’t know if any of that is the case or you right and he just caught lightning in a bottle for a few weeks? To your point if he lights up unc I still won’t know for sure cause lots of guys light them up.

If I really believed the light bulb went on for him this would be a super easy bet for me to make on scary, other than the fact I don’t trust Rattler and Maye is a beast I don’t really think unc has anything else going for them. Far as I can tell The only 2 players unc has had under Brown with any toughness and determination been his 2 qbs!! I’ve been fooled a few times by Heels cause of Howell and Maye but it won’t happen again. As long as Rattler doesn’t revert back into a total pumpkin I like scary chances. I thought bout scary team total but that more reliant on Rattler than I want to be. I’d think it be high scoring but my reason for liking scary is just the fact I think they without a doubt be the tougher more physical team who id expect is most likely more prepared as well. We get the new and improved Rattler I don’t even think it all that close. We get the Rattler we have seen most his ncaa career I dunno, unc prob pull out a close one.
 
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2daBank said:
You know I been one the charter members of our rattler bashing crew for years! I’m def not ready to say he is now a dark horse heisman candidate which I’ve actually heard mumbled places! Not sure I’m willing to just dismiss those games either, I’m pretty sure talent hasn’t ever been his problem considering how highly touted he was. There at least the possibility he a late bloomer, couldn’t handle his own hype, or any number of things that can prevent a kid from reaching his potential. Maybe it just took a lot a failure for him to realize he needed to make changes? Maybe this coaching staff was able to figure out his issues or relate to him in a way that he understood? I don’t know if any of that is the case or you right and he just caught lightning in a bottle for a few weeks? To your point if he lights up unc I still won’t know for sure cause lots of guys light them up.

If I really believed the light bulb went on for him this would be a super easy bet for me to make on scary, other than the fact I don’t trust Rattler and Maye is a beast I don’t really think unc has anything else going for them. Far as I can tell The only 2 players unc has had under Brown with any toughness and determination been his 2 qbs!! I’ve been fooled a few times by Heels cause of Howell and Maye but it won’t happen again. As long as Rattler doesn’t revert back into a total pumpkin I like scary chances. I thought bout scary team total but that more reliant on Rattler than I want to be. I’d think it be high scoring but my reason for liking scary is just the fact I think they without a doubt be the tougher more physical team who id expect is most likely more prepared as well. We get the new and improved Rattler I don’t even think it all that close. We get the Rattler we have seen most his ncaa career I dunno, unc prob pull out a close one.
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I will probably just hope that Rattler has a great game against UNC, gets hype, and bet his under props in 2 weeks against UGA.
 
Added Joe Fortenbaugh picks. Never heard of these two guys, but they are listed as Daily Wager regulars so I'll list their picks
Dalen Cuff
Utah -6x
N Carolina/S Carolina o 64x
Florida St ML

Matt Miller
N Carolina -2x
Florida St +2x

Count me in as another who no longer watches Gameday. I've enjoyed it for years and like everyone on it and like they information they give, but I can't stand Pat McAfee. I can't even stand to look at the guy. As long as he's there I won't watch
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Joe Fortenbaugh picks. Never heard of these two guys, but they are listed as Daily Wager regulars so I'll list their picks
Dalen Cuff
Utah -6x
N Carolina/S Carolina o 64x
Florida St ML

Matt Miller
N Carolina -2x
Florida St +2x

Count me in as another who no longer watches Gameday. I've enjoyed it for years and like everyone on it and like they information they give, but I can't stand Pat McAfee. I can't even stand to look at the guy. As long as he's there I won't watch
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Totally agree. He's an idiot.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1697291301438267846

Here is my brief synopsis - not a transcript. These guys do not "pick" games, but do X & O breakdowns and then 'best bet(s)" at the end

I listened to Fla vs Utah and ECU vs Michigan in truck while doing errands and scribbled notes while listening to the rest. Sometimes cannot read my own scribble.

Gators vs Utes-5/44.5:
When line came out in May line was -10 and 54. Sounds as if Payne bet the Under right away. I am seeing -5 and 44.5

Powers thought loss of Rising was more signifcant than did Payne. Payne said Bryson Barnes has been in the O system since 2000 and led Utes to a 57 yard TD drive in the Rose Bowl 2 years ago, They both thought the loss of TE - Kuithe - was much more significant. Payne noted the travel week for Gators, leaving early to go to Dallas and then flying to Utah. He said it was so significant that Napier evidently consulted with sports psychologists and NFL teams about how to help team get ready. Powers not impressed with Utes wide receivers. But, both believed Utes' O line will likely dominate the Gator D line. Powers really seems confident in Utes running backs and in particular J. Jackson who he thinks will be one of the best this year. Powers sounded as if Jackson could help Utes win the game. Furhman talked about how Utes openly talk of this as a revenge game for last year. Payne said "this game will be won on the ground...and who dominates LOS."

Payne discussed the line and believes pros are waiting for injury reports to be made final with Rising and Kuthrie being "out" and then they will take Utes ML for as cheeply as they can. "For me game is all about price here." He earler noted that Whittingham will mislead even the networks re injuries through team warm ups. He acted as if Rising may even suit up pregame (?) but not play.

They asked about "wind"????

ECU vs Michigan -36/52:
They did not think Harbaugh missing was significant, but they did think Offesive Coordinator missing the game will be significant. [ Michigan offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore will be suspended for this week’s season-opening game as part of the school’s self-imposed penalties for violating NCAA rules that also led to coach Jim Harbaugh’s punishment]. Powers did the entire analysis and said there is "value" in ECU. This surprised me as their preseason podcast was really down on ECU as I recall. Powers think this will be a "running game" affair and that is another reason to like ECU. I am seeing Michigan -36.5 now. Powers think that with early game and missing coaches this game will be shortened and "give me the 36."

SoCar vs UNC -2.5/64:
Payne does not like Scary Offensive Roster. He think they rely on explosive plays and the change in O Coordinator will not make a difference. He says Scary has "horrific defense" and their O line looks bad too and "Rattler is sensitive to pressure." He thinks UNC Defense cannot get worse than '22 but he does not think there will be substantial improvement. Payne has not seen any real action "at the current price." Drake Maye is good, but he's concerned that UNC will be running. He thinks UNC O line is "middling to below replacement." Payne thinks "if you're looking to do something this is a sneaky total." (implying Under)

Powers believes that UNC O Line is decent "although not all ACC type players", that wide receivers are very questionable [evidently a Kent State transfer, Tez Walker, is not allowed to play due to NCAA}, that they have sevral TEs and running backs that will see action. He does not think they will play up-tempo but will see more of a Pro-Style type of offense. Powers thinks UNC will run the ball with success agst Scary defense that lost their best D linemen from an already bad defense and UNC will hammer away with the run.

Colorado vs TCU -20.5/63.3
Furman intro "Colorado O line is being called worst unit on the team" and others have called Colorado team worst Power Five team in nation. Powers thinks Colorado is better than that - particularly the first 22. Powers think QB, Sanders, looks competent and they have a break out running back Dillon Edwards that will give explosive plays. Powers is worried about their O Line and Defensive secondary. He's seen a lot of money come in on under but over is his lean "from what I have seen." Powers think Colorado is improved and has upgraded Colorado power rating +11 more than any team in country, although they are still one of lowest in country. He has down graded TCU's power rating by 3 and his line has TCU favored by -21.

Payne thinks that Colorado Offense will be "Brilesesque" in design but TCU D is designed for that style. Payne think TCU will put stress on Colorado's Offense, even with new players on Colorado. Payne had liked OVER 59 earlier in week, not now. They think game will be high paced and heat may affect performance.

W.Va. @ PSU -20.5/48.5
First meeting since '93. PSU wins in September. WVa has not won as 20 pt underdog since 1995. Payne says "Manny Diaz is a great defensive coordinator, not a good head coach." Payne seemed to have real concerns re WVa offense and ability to push ball downfield with Green at QB and is susceptible to ints. No confidence in WVa receivers and O line for rushing. PSU front 7 is very good and "a lot of future pros." Best pass catcher is WVa TE. You can listen to the rest, but does not sound as if they give WVa much of a chance. He sounded as if WVa may not score. Evidently O/U was 53 and been falling for good reason. Powers did say PSU Offense was "dominated" by PSU second string defense in spring game. Thus, he liked the under that has now gotten away.

LSU vs FSU (Orlando) +2.5/55.5
FSU is Payne's alma mater and his favorite team to talk about. I'll sum it up, but they had lot to say as a ranked on ranked match up. FSU has bad ATS agst ranked opponents 2-17 since 2017 and pts differential -16. Verse is best Seminole D player and a "bulked up" Jadon Daniels for LSU. Payne says LSU O is a balanced match up against FSU D and will be a game "in the trenches" when these 2 units are on the field. Payne is pumped re Seminole D line starters, transfers and overall depth. Payne questioned LSU running game. He anticipated Daniels making vertical plays down the field, but Seminole new D coordinator will provide better pass D.

I accidently erased the FSU Offense vs LSU defense analysis (sorry). Summary: Powers was very very positive re FSU QB and the entire offense vs LSU and did not upgrade LSU defense from last year and said something akin to "they have no SEC all conference types." He noted that every time line got to 3 FSU was bet. Payne popped in with "Brad is very well intuned with what people will see with FSU offense, [I have] quiet confidence" and if line gets to 3 "its a buy." They did not make a selection, but its hard to imagine they have an LSU wager.

Clemson vs Duke +13.5/55.5
Dabo upset about Clemson's walk to their locker room at halftime? (Furhman noted this in intro}.

Powers and Furhman start out by liking Riley Leonard at QB for Duke. Powers said "I have him as under-rated and one of the top 15. borderline top 10, in country." "Duel threat kid." Cade Klubnick is probably an upgrade and he is positive on Clemson's new O coordinator but somewhat negative on Clemson receivers. Payne says "Duke is not going to have a chance unless Riley Leonard is sensational, I think that's quite clear." But he has questions about Clubnick ratings and past play and Clemson O line and wide outs. Payne says Duke has good defense, "4 all ACC defensive players" and he likes their D line- "one of better ones in ACC" and he really likes Mike Elko, Duke coach.

Powers made the general comment about "these lines been out since May" for all the games and implied seeing little value due to that fact. Powers agrees.

Pick of the Week: FSU +3 They would take it to buying to +3 -125. I see line has moved down to +2 since I started this post and I can only get +3 -150.

Payne added in that they are hearing at LSU the "vibe in camp' has not been good and the exact opposite for FSU.

Here is the LSU/FSU post that I thought I lost:

Powers favors FSU offense vs LSU defense. Jordan Travis much improved and Powers put more $$ on him to win Heisman than any other. Powers loves FSU O line and is "wishy washy" on LSU defense and on defensive front "no all SEC" types. He think FSU has "elite offense" and LSU not improved over last year. Fuhrman says every time line gets to 3 FSU is bet. They did not make a selection, if they did they sure sounded FSU bullish and Payne said "3 is a buy" and "Brad is very well in tune with his analysis of FSU offense, [I have] quiet confidence."
 
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My picks for the week. I will keep my post to a minimum and will try to update only in here.

FYI - as most of you know, my selections are just those of very amateur status compared to those of most threads available at CTG. I rely mostly on podcasts, reading what's available in these threads and my hunches as year progresses. Nevertheless, I post in here to keep myself honest and accountable as year progresses.

Week Zero: 1-2
Won on ND 2H and lost on NmexSt and UTEP

FUTURES:
Wisky Season Wins Over 8.5 -155 1 unit
Ga Southern Season Wins Under 6.5 - 145 1 Unit
UNLV Season Wins Under 5.5 +120 1 Unit

Week #1:
Florida State +2 -110. WIN I listened to Bet the Board above. They convinced me. I liked it at 2.5 before I listened.
Baylor -25. LOSE Texas State shud be awful. May be only wager on Baylor all year
Utah -5. WIN I had this circled. Line seems a little high to me, but riding with it. From all I have gleaned in my reading/listening, Florida has a rough year ahead.
Nebraska TT Over 7.5 2H WIN (yes, posting it after half started, forgot to earlier. I am keeping my season record here for me too)
MichState -9.5 LIVE WIN
Purdue -3.5 -110 LOSE will not bet Purdue rest of year
BallSt vs KY OVER 49 -110 WIN
Washington -14 -105 WIN
Wazzu/ColSt Under 54 -110 LOSE
Clemson/Duke Under 55.5 -110 WIN
Duke +14 -110 WIN
Hawaii TT Over 26.5 -125 LOSE
KY - 14.5 LIVE WIN
Liberty -3 2H LOSE
Cal TT UNDER 30.5 LOSE

My added selections are from listening to the podcasts and reading the selections and doing some of my own work and reading CTG threads
 
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Here is Clay Travis week #1. I'll do tonight's and fill in later, or you can read.

www.outkick.com

Clay Travis' Gambling Picks For College Football Week 1: LSU-FSU Is One Of Three Blood Bank Guarantees

For the 13th straight year our fearless leader Clay Travis is here to make you fabulously wealthy with weekly college football gambling picks.
www.outkick.com www.outkick.com

Nebrasks +7.5 @ Minny WIN
This is a Matt Rhule bet. Plain and simple. Neither of these teams are very good and I’m convinced Matt Rhule is going to win at Nebraska. Sure, I was even more convinced Scott Frost would win at Nebraska too and probably lost early bets on this same logic too, but damn it, this time I’m right. The Cornhuskers lose by three.
But they cover and that’s all we care about.

Florida @ Utah UNDER 45.5 (line not available to me, I have 44 available) WIN
We don’t know about Cam Rising’s health which is why I’m not taking Utah by a full touchdown here. We do, however, know that the Florida Gators stink this year. Especially on offense. Which is why the under is my blood bank guarantee this week, hop on board and get rich, kids. (And I barely even made you read anything before you got to a guaranteed money maker. See, who loves you more than me? No one.)

ARKSt @ OU OVER 58.5 WIN
I’m in love with overs this week. I know, I know, we’ve got new clock rules on first downs and in theory the games should be a few plays shorter, but here’s a general life lesson: Oklahoma always sucks at defense. Yes, even with a defensive head coach. They just do. And Butch Jones is coaching Arkansas State so you know he’s going to give away at least two touchdowns just by basic game management failures. Boom(er) the over hits.

Ball State @ KY OVER 48.5 WIN
Kentucky’s got a hot new offensive coordinator and a hot new quarterback and even Mark Stoops, who would drive 45 miles an hour in a Maserati on the Bluegrass Parkway, isn’t going to keep this offensive engine in neutral. The Wildcats come out gunning and put up 45 by themselves. I can’t believe I’m doing it, but I am, it’s a double blood bank guarantee, boys and girls!Yes, two surefire winners that are absolutely, positively, guaranteed to win. (Unless they lose, in which case I will disavow the entirety of this pick faster than every school that could bailed on the Pac-12.) The over cashes with ease.

COLO @ TCO OVER 59.5 WIN
Deion Sanders has Big Noon eyes upon him for Week 1 and TCU is trying to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. So what happens? Points rain down upon all of us. And the over hits in this game too.

UVA @ Tenny OVER 57.5 WIN
I’ll be at this game here in Nashville to see Joe Milton begin his Heisman Trophy season in person. Milton goes for four touchdowns passing and one rushing and Tennessee hangs 50+ on the Hoos. (But the Vols give up 24, so I’m not messing with the 28-point line here.) The over cashes on the banks of the Cumberland.

UtahState + 25.5 @ IOWA WIN
I hear the doubters, “But Clay,” they say, “you don’t even know a single player on Utah State’s team, how can you be so confident they cover the 25.5 at Iowa?”The answer, my friends, is simple. I know Iowa. And Iowa shouldn’t be favored by 25.5 on air. Give me the Utah State Aggies.

New Mexico @ TX A&M -38 WIN
Speaking of the Aggies. Bobby Petrino isn’t running on to the field for the first game, he’s riding out on a motorcyle. And then his offense is going to roll all over New Mexico. At the end of the game, Jimbo Fisher is going to shake hands and say, “Welcome to Old Mexico, bitches.”And he’s going to cover.

UMASS @ Auburn OVER 52.5 WIN
Because I have no life, I watched UMASS-New Mexico State this past weekend and let me tell you, UMASS made some plays, none worthy of all caps, but close. Meanwhile Hugh Freeze is back in the SEC and that means only one thing. Points. And potential scandals, but, let’s be honest, it’s Auburn, no school embraces scandal more than Auburn, it’s their natural scent. The over cashes with ease with Freeze back at the helm.

Buckeyes @ Hoosiers +28 WIN
We all know how this game goes right? Indiana’s down six driving with the ball late in the third quarter attempting to take the lead when the Hoosiers throw a pick six on a first and ten play featuring a QB check from a draw to a quick hitch. 86 yards later the Buckeyes are up 13. Then Indiana fumbles the ensuing kickoff and Ohio State goes play action and scores on the first play after the fumble. Then the Buckeyes go for two, get it, are up 21 and suddenly all of you are cursing me for getting all this right and telling you to take the Hoosiers plus the points. But, trust me, a late IU touchdown gets us the cover. Just don’t get your hopes up when this game is close late in the third quarter. IU is to football what Lucy was to Charlie Brown. (And I apologize for having to explain how this entire game goes, but I apologize even more to the sad Indiana fans who read this entire game plan and have a single solitary tear rolling down their cheeks right now because they know I’m right about it all.)

Rice +35.5 @ Texas WIN
Is Texas back? No. Not yet. Again. Even worse, the Owls lose by 31 and cover.

Nevada @ USC OVER 65.5 WIN
I’m betting the over in every game when USC outclasses the opponent this year. Which means I’m betting the over in at least ten USC games this fall. Last week USC gave up 28 to San Jose State. Everyone is scoring at least 20 on them all season long. But they’re scoring 50 on just about everyone too. Voila, the over hits.

MTSU +39.5 @ BAMA LOSE
This is a monster number considering Alabama may play three quarterbacks and is still trying to hide who is starting. I just don’t see the Tide offense clicking this early in the season and I think the Blue Raiders, who won last year on the road at Miami, can post ten points on Bama. So give me the big underdogs here to cover.

WVA +21 @ PSU LOSE
The Nittany Lions have their best quarterback since Kerry Collins. Seriously. I think Drew Allar is going to be insanely good. But it’s going to take a little while and in the meantime, West Virginia comes to town and keeps it a single digit game until early in the fourth quarter. Country Roads take us to a cover in Happy Valley.

UNC @ SoCarolina OVER 64.5 LOSE
This is my sneaky pick for the best game on Saturday. Really.You’ve got two quarterbacks who have proven they are capable of being top ten in all of college football, returning talent on offense, in particular, and a neutral site game in Charlotte that should be evenly split between fan bases. Toss in the brutal early schedule for South Carolina — at Georgia and at Tennessee both before September — and the early Heisman hopes for Drake Maye and you’ve got a slingshot game for both teams, win and you’re giddy, lose and you’re super scared about what’s to come. One team wins 38-35, I’m just not sure which it is. So I’ll ride the over instead.

Old Dominian +15.5 @ VaTech LOSE
The teams have played four times since 2017 and split the series evenly.Virginia Tech has been an absolute disaster for several years now. And while they’re climbing out of the hole, I don’t think they are there yet. Give me ODU on the cover

NW +7 @ Rutgers LOSE
Northwestern is angry at the world right now. Anger isn’t always the best recipe for victory, but it can work in short spurts, the challenge is in knowing which way it’s going to be channeled. I think the Wildcats channel it well in Week 1 and cover for Fitz.

LSU @ FlaState UNDER 57.5 LOSE
I made sure to put that this game was going to played on Sunday night because lots of you are going to get drunk early on Saturday and given the heat, you’re going to be even drunker than normal and I guarantee that every group of guys going to games will have at least one friend that says, “Dude, we’ve got to get to (insert location here where there is more beer and potentially good looking girls) to watch LSU and FSU!” And at least one of your buddy’s is going to keep saying this all afternoon and you’re all going to have to keep reminding him that the game isn’t until Sunday night. But you can comfort him by saying, “Don’t worry though, Clay Travis says it’s a blood bank guarantee that the under is hitting,” so you can go ahead and place your bets on Saturday and know that come Sunday night you’ll have more money coming your way.
 
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AliShaheed said:
definite downgrade on the bear podcast without stanford steve
Click to expand...

Im sure I’ll check it out one week but not near top my list of things to do. Does Steve have a pod? I mostly just want to hear his takes on stanford as he usually has them pretty well figured out
 
2daBank said:
Im sure I’ll check it out one week but not near top my list of things to do. Does Steve have a pod? I mostly just want to hear his takes on stanford as he usually has them pretty well figured out
Click to expand...
He doesn’t have one currently that I know of.

His insight on the Pac 12 was very good.
 
2daBank said:
Im sure I’ll check it out one week but not near top my list of things to do. Does Steve have a pod? I mostly just want to hear his takes on stanford as he usually has them pretty well figured out
Click to expand...


See the first post. Steve has a new podcast with Reece Davis on Friday nights from wherever the site of Gameday is that week.
 
Posted Stanford Steve's Best Bet--Duke +13.

He was on with SVP tonight and said no more podcast, no more column. He'll be a guest picker on the Reece Davis podcast on Friday night and will release his picks on College Gameday.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Posted Stanford Steve's Best Bet--Duke +13.

He was on with SVP tonight and said no more podcast, no more column. He'll be a guest picker on the Reece Davis podcast on Friday night and will release his picks on College Gameday.
Click to expand...
Consistent with Bet the Board's breakdown of the game
 
TahoeLegend said:
Posted Stanford Steve's Best Bet--Duke +13.

He was on with SVP tonight and said no more podcast, no more column. He'll be a guest picker on the Reece Davis podcast on Friday night and will release his picks on College Gameday.
Click to expand...

I like duke also. Acc still my sweet spot, for some reason mw and that conf get pretty well! I thought I was gonna be on Gtech tonight but little thrown off cause I didn’t expect King to win the qb job.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Posted Stanford Steve's Best Bet--Duke +13.

He was on with SVP tonight and said no more podcast, no more column. He'll be a guest picker on the Reece Davis podcast on Friday night and will release his picks on College Gameday.
Click to expand...

Crappy
 
Oh yea, Vtech, that explains it. Far as I know they still stink. Prob need to make sure nothing has changed!
 
2daBank said:
Oh yea, Vtech, that explains it. Far as I know they still stink. Prob need to make sure nothing has changed!
Click to expand...
Wells is somehow still the QB. Lots of transfers like most teams. WR and RB should be upgrades. The #2 WR from last year is now 7 or 8 on the depth chart due to transfers and freshmen. Maliki Thomas, one of the few decent players and the only decent RB, is now #2 behind transfer Bhayshul Tuten.

Kryon Drones, from Baylor, could not beat out Wells, so that is telling in itself. Pry says that both will play and Wells is the starter, so he will probably have packages for Drones and QB runs/options.

Gallo at TE is questionable for tomorrow. Dae'Quan Wright will start and is a good receiving TE/oversized WR, but the run game will suffer more without Gallo.

The offense should be improved to some degree, but with all of the changes, it is doubtful that you see it in week 1, especially with Wells still at QB.

The defense should be as good or better as Pry gets his players in the program.

ODU should be worse than last year, they lost a lot. Maybe @Dollaz can comment.
 
He Hate Me said:
Wells is somehow still the QB. Lots of transfers like most teams. WR and RB should be upgrades. The #2 WR from last year is now 7 or 8 on the depth chart due to transfers and freshmen. Maliki Thomas, one of the few decent players and the only decent RB, is now #2 behind transfer Bhayshul Tuten.

Kryon Drones, from Baylor, could not beat out Wells, so that is telling in itself. Pry says that both will play and Wells is the starter, so he will probably have packages for Drones and QB runs/options.

Gallo at TE is questionable for tomorrow.

The offense should be improved to some degree, but with all of the changes, it is doubtful that you see it in week 1, especially with Wells still at QB.

The defense should be as good or better as Pry gets his players in the program.

ODU should be worse than last year, they lost a lot. Maybe @Dollaz can comment.
Click to expand...

I think anytime I see I can get more than 2tds against Hokies my natural instinct is to want the points, you know a ton more about their players than me, some these programs the changes in names doesn’t really concern me I just expect basically the same level of quality from some programs, mediocrity in Hokies and others cases! I hadn’t did much more than browse lot of 2marro games and I did kinda just assume odu was similar to last year. I’ll def seek out @Dollaz or do some my own work before actually making any decisions. My 1st thought was just “2+ tds vs a team who struggles to score 20 and has a qb who will give some points away” obviously only 1 way I would play it, lol. It be cool if @Dollaz came around w some odu knowledge but I think most years he doesn’t pop up till 3-4 weeks into the year, dunno why I remember that but sounds right. Lol
 
Very nice thread.

Tahoe, you continue to be the biggest record fudger in the history of CTG. It is very ironic given your weekly thread is to track other people's picks from espn (elsewhere).

Why do you continue to do that?
 
ODU is right there with the dregs anchoring the bottom of the FBS list for me. No way I can bet them. VT or nothing for me, likely nothing.
 
RetroVK said:
Very nice thread.

Tahoe, you continue to be the biggest record fudger in the history of CTG. It is very ironic given your weekly thread is to track other people's picks from espn (elsewhere).

Why do you continue to do that?
Click to expand...

Wow. Never expect to see a post like this in any the great threads I enjoy here. Is that like a inside joke between you 2?

If not I certainly don’t want to get involved or take up space posting bout it (none my business if ya’ll got history). This thread has been one I’ve always posted in quite a bit and talked plays with Tahoe and others. I really don’t pay attention to anyones records, I’d certainly take whatever most the guys I chop it up with on a regular basis at ctg word for it at face value.

Every now and again I notice his posted record and it always strong, never had any reason to question it cause it doesnt matter to me and week to week I’d say it appears he wins more than loses. All I care bout is discussing this stuff with ppl opinion I respect so there def no reason for any fudging. I hope that isn’t the case for no other reason than I respect honesty more than a persons record. Anyways I’ve spent way to much time on this. We don’t talk much but Im pretty sure you used to post a weekly thread that was a must read! Didn’t pay attention to your record either (if that was you) but I’m sure I took it at face value also :)
 
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