End of the season


Breaking it down briefly
Hawaii see -7.5 +102 (looking to get -7 or better)
Under 73 -105 (anything better then 72) (8x)

Really Hawaii has played only 2 quality teams at home Nevada and Purdue. In those games they scored 41 and 42 and failed to cover big DD spreads . Oregon State walks in with a better defense then both of those programs and probably will make an effort to establish the run with Bernard to keep it away from Hawaii's offense. One problem is Hawaii is very tough against the run see Purdue and Nevada's numbers running the ball. Oregon State off a tough home win vs rival Oregon has not impressed me on the road...smoked @ Boise State 42 -14 , lost @ UCLA while winning @ Stanford , @ Zona , and @Wash. The true story though is the offense really struggles away. So much they only won @ Zona cause the starting QB was out (17-10 ) , they won @ Wash when Stanback got hurt as they trailed 14-10 at the half. Purdue and Nevada can throw the ball better then Matt Moore and company so I wouldnt expect more then 24 pts. With Hawaii I would expect 38 -42 points at most. If they get a chance late I think Hawaii might run the ball with a lead rather then throw. Oregon State was dogged at Boise and Wash by 8 points so this line is actually real cheap. Hawaii has shown they are every good as Boise IMO...so I am looking for 38-24 game...

Houston - 4-108 (10x) or ML -180

Kolb said after the loss at SoMiss that Houston would run the table and see SoMiss in the Championship Game...well here they are. Kolb is a senior and you know this means alot to him. Houston is trying to avenge a loss @ SoMiss and lets face it they are the better team. They get a home game here being played @ Reliant Stadium. I would play this game up to -6 as I expect a TD win here by the Cougars. Kolb was able to throw for 330 yards in the 1st meeting and SoMiss benefited from good field position. They also have 2 weeks to prepare. This is a team that beat Ok State and lost by 1 @ Miami. The Golden Eagles are young at QB and RB and that inexperience wil hurt them along with there over reliance on there defense. Last 2 years Kolb has thrown for 300+ against SoMiss and 2 years ago as 17 pt dogs lost in ot @ SoMiss. His only poor game was a Freshman so thi sis his 5th start versus them...and lately SoMiss has shown a few holes in there pass defense....

West Virgina-8 -110 (was hoping for -7 but exploded today to -10) (10x)
Just look at it like this we have a double edges sword. WVU losing at home presented value in the line cause this surely would have been double digits and should be. It also makes you wonder about there motivation since they really cant win the Big East now but they dont want to lose 2 straight at home IMO. The bottomline is RU is still young and struggles offensively on the road. WVU is tough to run about 3 YPC and that presents a problem for Rutgers. While RU is tough against the run this is a different type attack. RU had trouble winning @ USF and @ UNC and lost @ Cincy how in the world can they win @ WVU off a home loss??

Pat White did hurt his ankle but I expect him to be okay. For all the talk about the win vs Lville remember they made huge comeback by pressuring Brohm and won by just 3 as 6 pt HOME DOGS. They were dogs at Pitt by 6 while Lville/ WVU was -10. True Pitt was playing well when RU came to town and RU started the spiral . I know its different teams but WVU won rather easily @ Rutgers last year. Definetly getting a sleeping giant as WVU scored only 19 pts and lost at home...hoping for -7 but will play under -10...... and how much better is say RU then Pitt and terms of a spread?? Think about it...WVU and Lville are basically 14 pts better then Pitt on a neutral field where does RU fit into the equation...??

Army +21 -120 (5x) Lean ov 49 -101
Last few weeks Army has fallen apart but I thought they played well in spurts @ ND. They managed wins @ Baylor and were a goal stand away from winning @ A&M. Army did some good things that day 5 drives of more then 10 plays and 3 drives of 50 + yds (50 , 76 and 80). For whatever reason starting with Rice the Army squad just began to unravel. This is it though for Army after a disappointing season where expectations were higher. Then can erase alot but defeating Navy and I am hoping they play like they did back early in the season. Take the AF meeting where I feel the final score is so misleading...Army about to take the lead mid 1st Q fumbles and watches it go 98 yds the other way and that semed to deflate them. Next thing you know AF is hanging FIVE 2nd quarter TDs on them (the only Q the offense scored)....If Army puts this season behind them focuses on this game and keeps there defense off the field for long stretches I think they can make this a game. They apppeared to be okay defensively against the AF run attack so maybe there is hope..Navy has been smoking hot but plating teams like Temple , Duke and EMU who just cant defend the option helps..Army at least has experience doing so....

Cal -16.5 -105 1st half (5x)
The Cal defense has been a disappoint at times this season but Stanford has scored more then 10 points once in the past 2 months. They did it @ Wash another team w/o its starting QB. They needed a pick 6 and somewhat flukish 75Yd TD pass to get 20 points that day. Otherwise they have 0 , 3, 10 on the road . The 10 was @ ND and the TD ws in the 4th Q on I believe a HB option pass. So after 2 losses and playing bad run defense I expect Cal to just jam it down Stanfords throat.....expecting 21-3 or so at half...

TCU -14 -120 (5x) could middle line exploded to -17.5
Played this early on thing TCU is starting to click offensively now that they are healthy and blowing teams out. AF seems to be regressing and was torched at home by TCU last year. Chances were they werent going to score much here so I could see a 31-14 or 35-14 win ....only rpoblem is now this line is running and I might just middle somekey numbers.. AF has lost @ 2 of the weaker conference opponents (UNLV and SDST)....and you just cant run on TCU...should be a long day for them....

Under 50 -105 SJST (3x)
Expecting alot of running here. I think Fresno defense can play well as long as it doesnt stay on the field long. While SJ impressed me by holding Boise to just 23 pts a few weeks back...Fresno had scored 21 or less on the road until facing LTech who is awful defensively...

UCLA +14 -111 (5x)

Felt this line should have been closer to 10 pts. Everything is clicking for USC now but they have still struggled on the road in conference play outside of Stanford. UCLA seems to have regained some momentum with wins over Oregon State and @ ASU. Lets see if the Trojan offense can score on a solid defense ...expecting a 27-17 game....looking at under 48..

Looking at or Played but havent commented:

Ohio U +3.5 -115 (6x) ML +139 (2x)and Under (lean)

(Big favs) Louisville -27 -105 and Cal -28 -105 as well as 1st Half.. -16.5 -105 on both
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OMG...i'd wish you GL, but i think i jsut found out i'm color blind.

The write ups i pretty much agree with...though i' torn on So Piss.
Thoughts on Ohio U vs CMU @ Ford Field ( I believe)

Really there is no home field edge for anyone here. Basically we have a good defense in OHIO U(before last game 4 straight with 10 or less pts) who is playing a pass only offense led by a freshman. To me that gives the Ohio U defense the upperhand. You have to expect LeFevour to be somewhat nervous playing in a Championship game. The Ohio U Defense is allowing 4.8 YPA past 3 games and 5.6 on the road this season. With CMU struggling on the ground @ 3.4YPC that puts even more pressure on the youngster to make things happen rather then manage an offense.

You have to respect the fact that Ohio U won @ Illinois 20-17 recently . The way I have it this game on a neutral field should be a PKem but since CMU has gained popularity atthe end of the year and just steamed Buffalo they are gaining public perception points. Really CMU just beat up on bad teams when they traveled this season. The final @ Kentucky was close but they trailed 21-0 and 28 -7 in the 2nd Q and we know about Kentuckys issues on defense. So the fact a strong passing attack hung some points on them is no real suprise. After that they lost badly @ Northern illinois a team very similiar to Ohio U. Garret Wolfe had a day and Mcrae is on fire recently and that should continue with CMU struggling to stop the run. The Chippewas are allowing 4.9 YPA last 3 games and Ohio U is gaining 5.4 YPA past 3. They should have senior QB Everson back for this one. He didnt play @ Miami-Ohio and if not a few odd plays Ohio would have hung nearly 50 on there opponent just like CMU did..If you check really CMU hasnt beat anyone lately outside of a fading Western Michigan club.

I feel that you get strong value with 3 or 3.5 points in a game that should be a Pkem....

CMU exploded on bad defenses but what did they do versus anyone with a half a defense let alone a good one??
Thanks pags...GL

If anything I might entertain some sort of UNDER play here . I think at 47 we are starting to see value cause Ohio U isnt looking for a shootout. I was looking at 23-20 type final so we will see..
Naturally the enitre Bobcat team gets hurt last nite at some point....they just didnt have it wclicking on offense and it took away from there defense. Impressive game by CMU IMo......wish I played the Under abit more.....

Tonite looking to Tease Houston and the under....played also team Under 24.5 Somiss....

be back later!
Like the card Nut, but strongly disagree on Army. Army's strong performances were very early this year (except ND). I'm not one to lay a lot of points, but can't see how Army can cover. BOL this week!
smo1a said:
Like the card Nut, but strongly disagree on Army. Army's strong performances were very early this year (except ND). I'm not one to lay a lot of points, but can't see how Army can cover. BOL this week!

Readily admit its a reach play. Army has looked like ass for awhile and Navy is peaking . However who is Navy peaking versus EMU , Temple Duke...Temple and Duke might be the two worst defenses in CFB at least off the top of my head.

I guess here is my take on Army not as good as the early season play but not as bad as the late season play or scores. Disappointing season for them but in such a big rivalry game they can erase alot of that with a good showing. They have played an option team in AF and that game was just misleading. I think when they fumbled going in and in went the other way the Cadets were defeated( at least mentally).....they had there hearts ripped out on that play....it changes the entire complex of that game. They didnt play well but they werent awful @ Conn or Tulane IMO....Both teams did about the same vs ND

I just dont see the difference in these teams as 3 TDs maybe 2 if Navy is as good as the past 3 games but I think we might have seen -10 if Army had some better performances....they played alot of common opponents and the spreads were fairly close .....big difference was Navy tend to win while Army didnt...which means yo have to redjust those spreads

both played at UConn spread difference was 7 points and Navy won easily and Army lost....Army caught 29 @ ND and missed covering while Navy was +13 at home and didnt....Say Navy is 17 pt dogs to ND on a neutral field I owuld guess Army is about 27...thats only 10 pts...

I guess I just dont buy into Navy and the rivalry factor has be feeling Army will be focused and highly motivated to make this a game...seems to big to me .......

Saturday Card:

West Virginia -8 -110 (10x) Fucking sneaky bitches...I think we still get it though....RU went for the knockout and missed....they arent as good as the 1st Q

Army +21 -120 (5x) Win +5.00

Cal 1st Half -16.5 -108 (5x) Loss -5.40 (wish I played Vile1st half as well)

UCLA +14 -120 (5x) Win +5.00...had eyed the ML..

TCU -14 -120 (5x) Win +5.00

Under 50 -105 San Jose State (3x) Win +3.00

SDST +3.5 -120 (3x)

Hawaii -7 -113 (10x) RB injury though has me concerned ..

Under 73 -105 Hawaii (8x)

Ga Tech ML -113 (8x) Loss - 9.04

Good Luck...really having a hard time with Big 12 Championship and SEC Championship...

Teaser Cal -18.5 , Lville -18.5 , under 64.5 Lville(4x) Loss -4.8
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LOVE Gtech, that D will contain WF all day. Just gotta hope Reggie Ball has an ok game(as long as he doesnt give up TO's for scores id consider it good). I know GT can run on WF though, so i expect that to be the gameplan.
Think Lville is to fat at ++28 but in no hurry to back UConn away as the barely crack 14...would like to take the under to 64.5 and tease it with something....

Down in Morgantown we all know who I like but I also feel like this will not be especially high scoring and will try and take the total to 60...59.5 will do...

In Army vs navy I expect a close game but not crazy about how Armys offense is playing but lean Over 49....possibly take this down to 39...

With NM State I ambeing cautious and staying away cause I believe Holbrook suffered a concussion last game...otherwise would include State in my teaser @ -2.5....possibly a NM State team total over if the QB is okay...

With cal I am shocked at looking how poorly there defense as played but Stanford struggles on offense to even crack 10 but would never take an Under even with a fairly solid Stanford defense cause Cal could easily break 45....possible over 36.5...if I tease..would lay -28 / 28.5 went 1st H instead...

Since I think UCLA can hang around with UCLA I owuld suggest over 47 and may include an over 37 in my teaser...hard to believe at this point USC cant score 28 +....

TCU is on fire but AF always plays well in there last games......Defense is so good though and putting up 600 yards lately...makes me hope this number floats back down closer to be 14 so I can just ride it

I would lean SJ ST but Fresno is getting there shit together and not big on the Spartans as chalk...but do thinkwe see a low 20's game...

I'll be honest with SDST I just saw odd line movement early on and played it....looked at it just now and saw only -1.....could Col St just fade away...losers of 6 straight with 4 very unimpressive wins versus bottomfeeders...SD ST probably should have been -3 as bad as they are....

With the ACC championship I just like the fact everyone is doubting Ball. h eis inconsistent but seems to rise up when he is backed against a wall. Choice and CJ are the best offensive players on the field and the defenses are both tough but GT played better competition all season long IMo ...and that will be valueable here....WF hasnt impressed me...an they are young.....would guess under here as well maybe Under 50 in a teaser..

Oklahoma has met every challenge and thats why I wont fade them... Fla knows how to win but is banged up while ARK is questionable @ QB.....

I favor Arkansas in the SEC matchup

Only real question would be Arky motivation after having title hopes deflated HOWEVER this SEC crown means more to Arky IMO.

I think Florida gets handled by 7 - 10
Sportsnut, what are the (10x), (1x) and so forth? Does that represent wager size?
I favor Arkansas in the SEC matchup

Only real question would be Arky motivation after having title hopes deflated HOWEVER this SEC crown means more to Arky IMO.

I think Florida gets handled by 7 - 10

Yeah what scares me is the amount of close games FLA has played and won. They know how to win those close games..a tam coming out of nowhere IMO will always be motivated to win a Championship game but teams like Fla expect to win these games....
yea this GT game has been so frustrating, kind of what i thought would happen if i lost with them. They went into the half looking terrible and Ball just wont throw the damn ball in bounds as always. missed some huge opportunites on those fumbles. I just wish they would line up and run Choice then throw a deep in or two. Seems too easy. Im going to hang on to the bet because i dont want to pay that juice, but i have a feelin you have the right idea. Maybe youll win both and GT will get the win. GL
Ball was completely awful and incompetent....

I lost but cant say that WF beat them or is better the Yellow Jackets were just out of sync and your right Nix's play calling was bad...what can you do...

Cal -14 -103 (3x)