El Cap 24 CFB

[EL CAPO]

natty - buckeyes +403.

Odds to make playoff - safest bet without paying insane juice tax ?- i think penn state -140. don't hate clemson or kansas at +200 and 600 and if you like latter better to put your exposure next

heisman - jalon daniels +3000. IMO this is the year for a guy like him with blue bloods moved out of the conference. Besides dillon gabriel, what blue bloods have prolific qbs ? I think Nussmeier and daniels are the best "talents". barring health with this kid; i think kansas has a shot at making the playoff and if he pulls that off that is all he needs.

B10
Indiana o 5.5
Wisconsin o 6.5
Ucla u 5.5
Sparty o 5.5
Maryland u 7.5
Penn state o 9.5
Ohio state o 10.5

B12
Cincy o 5.5
Ucf o 7.5
Kansas o 8.5
Texas tech o 7.5
Arizona state u 4.5
Houston u 4.5
Leans
Tcu o 7.5
Utah u 9.5
K state u 9.5
West virginia u 6.5

ACC
clemson +325
va tech o 8.5
Clemson o 9.5
Florida state u 9.5

SEC
oklahoma o 7.5
Missouri u 9.5
Lean
lsu u 9.5
auburn o 7.5


non power 5
uab o 6.5

win totals matchups
texas tech -180 west virginia
tcu -140 washington
clemson -120 missouri
oh state -145 georgia
va tech -190 iowa state

edit: see the new rules - all these futures are for 3 units minus jalon daniels (1 unit)......for juice not listed i will use -130

add:
oh state to win big ten (+135)
oregon state u 7.5 (-155)
sam houston o 4.5 (-150)
duke u 5.5 (-190)

 

[EL CAPO]

does anyone know if jalon daniels is soft ? been thinking i dabbled on this guy last few years and he always gets injured mysteriously. Dude probably will go down week 3.

big 12 is a very exciting conference - and most underrated conference to me this year. The Big 12 brother conference the ACC - I think the big 12 is much deeper and better.

Big 12 is putting out kansas texas tech ucf and tcu as the 7-10th best teams. Thats 10 teams that can beat each other on any given day and a model of parity as a conference should be. Big ten putting out teams like rutgers and maryland in that tier and i would probably take the big 12 as deepest conference besides sec.

 

[EL CAPO]

Adding Missouri u 9.5 (-150) for regular season..that operation is a not a perennial contender and their coach is a classic fade after a good year. That said the schedule is relatively easy, and the realignment has caused imbalanced schedules within conference too much imo when you compare to Florida and Oklahoma.

Some week 1 bets so far ( have no idea why I shouldn't just bet against all the non power 5s aka the have nots week 1 and 2. Blindly doing it I think has been profitable. Their rosters are in more flux transition and shambles and the big boys just steal their guys. Betting the non power 5 feels very much like a wait and see approach)

Wisconsin -24 vs western Michigan.
Oklahoma -41.5 vs temple.
Notre dame /Texas am u 49
Miami oh/NW u 43.5
Hawaii 13.5
Hawaii/UCLA o 55.5
Wyoming 7 @ Arizona state
Bama -30 vs western Kentucky
Bama western Kentucky o 59
Indiana -19 vs fiu
Va tech -13 @ vandy
Charlotte 10 vs James madison

Considering
Clemson 13.5 vs Georgia
Usc 6.5 vs LSU
Tcu.-8.5 @ Stanford
Sparty -11 vs fau
Nevada 15 @ troy

 

[carolinablue]

Thanks for posting El Capo! Definitely on the same page with more than a few as I haven't funded my accounts yet for cfb but most likely will also be on Okla, Bama, Wyom, UNCC and a bunch of other big favs as I have done very well laying the heavy chalk in week 1 even though I acknowledge it isn't everyone's cup of tea. Best of luck this year man!

 

[B.A.R.]

does anyone know if jalon daniels is soft ? been thinking i dabbled on this guy last few years and he always gets injured mysteriously. Dude probably will go down week 3.

big 12 is a very exciting conference - and most underrated conference to me this year. The Big 12 brother conference the ACC - I think the big 12 is much deeper and better.

Big 12 is putting out kansas texas tech ucf and tcu as the 7-10th best teams. Thats 10 teams that can beat each other on any given day and a model of parity as a conference should be. Big ten putting out teams like rutgers and maryland in that tier and i would probably take the big 12 as deepest conference besides sec.

Who knows with Daniels?

I'd love to see him full season and is worth a very small bet on the Heisman imo with that schedule.

Again, small.

I'll agree, a lot of intrigue with the B12 this year. Simply put, will be a pretty competitive conference from top to bottom.

 

[twinkie13]

GL Capo

 

[HUNT]

I like this capo. Good stuff

 

[EL CAPO]

Adding Missouri u 9.5 (-150) for regular season..that operation is a not a perennial contender and their coach is a classic fade after a good year. That said the schedule is relatively easy, and the realignment has caused imbalanced schedules within conference too much imo when you compare to Florida and Oklahoma.

Some week 1 bets so far ( have no idea why I shouldn't just bet against all the non power 5s aka the have nots week 1 and 2. Blindly doing it I think has been profitable. Their rosters are in more flux transition and shambles and the big boys just steal their guys. Betting the non power 5 feels very much like a wait and see approach)

Wisconsin -24 vs western Michigan.
Oklahoma -41.5 vs temple.
Notre dame /Texas am u 49
Miami oh/NW u 43.5
Hawaii 13.5
Hawaii/UCLA o 55.5
Wyoming 7 @ Arizona state
Bama -30 vs western Kentucky
Bama western Kentucky o 59
Indiana -19 vs fiu
Va tech -13 @ vandy
Charlotte 10 vs James madison

Considering
Clemson 13.5 vs Georgia
Usc 6.5 vs LSU
Tcu.-8.5 @ Stanford
Sparty -11 vs fau
Nevada 15 @ troy

updating card

all previous bets at -110 for 1 unit

thursday
jacksonville state -2.5 (-118) 1 unit
colorado -9.5 (3 units)
friday
Wisconsin -24 vs western Michigan (1u). +3 units at -23 -110
tcu -9.5 @ stanford (3 units)
sparty -14 vs fau (1 unit)
Oklahoma -41.5 vs temple (1u)
saturday
Notre dame /Texas am u 49 (1u)+ 2u at 46.5
Miami oh/NW u 43.5 (1u)
Hawaii 13.5 (1u)
Hawaii/UCLA o 55.5 (1u)
Wyoming 7 @ Arizona state(1u) +1u at +7 (-125)
Bama -30 vs western Kentucky (1u)
Bama western Kentucky o 59 (1u)
Indiana -19 vs fiu (1u) +3u at -21 (120)
Va tech -13 @ vandy (1u)
Charlotte 10 vs James madison - bought off (-.2 u)
clemson +14 vs georgia (-117) 2u
sam houston +10 @ rice (1u)
rice/sam houston u 49 (1u)
syracuse -17 vs ohio (1u)
ohio cust o 47 (1u)
usc 4.5 vs lsu (1 u)

lookaheads
oh state 1.5 @ oregon (3u)
clemson 3.5 @ florida state (3u)
oh st -9 vs michigan (1u)

included bc - fsu side

week 1 sides 7-8
week 1 totals 6-1
overall 13-9

 

[twinkie13]

Hitting that Bama well early baw!!!

 

[EL CAPO]

Add:
Rutgers -10.5 second half -150 (1 unit)
Boston college 17 vs Florida state 1 unit -110

 

[EL CAPO]

Nc st western car u 54.5 -120

 

[EL CAPO]

week 2
heisman add (half units) cam ward 900, travis hunter 1200, shedeur 2500, carson beck 1000
all -110
3 u
tennessee -7 vs nc state
georgia tech -2.5 @ syracuse
colorado 7 @ nebraska
2 u
utah -17 vs baylor
1u
texas -6 @ michigan
kansas -5.5 @ illinois
east carolina 1 @ old dominion
sparty 9 @ maryland
totals
mw/duke u 40
fau/army u 44
georgia tech/cus o 58
utah/baylor u 53

 

[B.A.R.]

Talk to me about the Colorado adds for Heisman.

You see this squad winning 8-9 or more games to even let them sniff NYC?

 

[B.A.R.]

Like the other two adds fwiw.

 

[EL CAPO]

Talk to me about the Colorado adds for Heisman.

You see this squad winning 8-9 or more games to even let them sniff NYC?

you can count on one hand the players as dynamic as these two especially hunter and his 2 way ability

i think they can get to 8

Just see it differently then everyone else i guess - i think they upgraded on the trenches - and now have a serviceable middle of pack oline instead of a bottom 5 percent power 5 oline. The issues against north dakota state were far more about communication on othe backend and confusion. If they clean it up they can win alot of games imo.

 

[EL CAPO]

add byu 12 -110, will be updating card quite a bit here

 

[EL CAPO]

week 2
heisman add (half units) cam ward 900, travis hunter 1200, shedeur 2500, carson beck 1000
all -110
3 u
tennessee -7 vs nc state
georgia tech -2.5 @ syracuse
colorado 7 @ nebraska
2 u
utah -17 vs baylor
1u
texas -6 @ michigan
kansas -5.5 @ illinois
east carolina 1 @ old dominion
sparty 9 @ maryland
totals
mw/duke u 40
fau/army u 44
georgia tech/cus o 58
utah/baylor u 53

updated
3
tennessee -7 vs nc state
georgia tech -2.5 vs nc state
colorado 7 @ nebraska
liberty -22.5 @ new mex state
1
utah -17 (2), baylor 15 (1u)
kansas -5.5 @ illinois
auburn -11.5 vs california
louisville -30 vs jax state
ucf -21 (-120) vs sam houston
sparty 9 @ maryland
texas -6 @ michigan
byu 12 @ smu
navy -13 vs temple
byu 12 @ smu

temple/navy u 43
mw/duke u 40
fau/army u 44
georgia tech/cus o 58
utah/baylor u 53
tennessee o 34.5 team total
liberty/new mex state u 54
k state tulane u 47
charlotte/unc u 48

leans
k state -9.5 @ tulane
clemson -17 vs app
va tech -20.5 vs marshall

week 2
sides 9-6
totals 4-4
overall 13-10

 

[EL CAPO]

3
indiana -3 vs ucla
wisconsin 16 vs alabama
nc state -21 vs la tech
boston college 16.5 @ missouri
tulane 14 @ oklahoma -120

1
kennessaw state 19.5 @ san jose state
new mexico 28 @ auburn
oregon -17 @ oregon state
fresno -19.5 vs new mex state
western kentucky -7 @ middle tennessee
coastal -17 vs temple
baylor -17 vs air force
lsu -7 @ south carolina
eastern michigan -2 vs jax state
umass 3.5 @ buffalo
memphis 7 @ florida state -115
3
indiana ucla u 46
ucf/tcu u 63
kennessaw/san jose state o 44
hawaii/sam houston u 48.5
1
La tech nc state o 48
Missouri Boston college u 54
arizona/kansas state o 60
san diego state/cal u 48
ball state miami fl o 55
utah/utah state u 44 -120
north texas/texas tech o 69
uab arkansas o 60
nevada/minnesota u 44
iowa/troy u 39.5
umass/buffalo u 45
oklahoma/tulane u 45.5
wyoming byu u 40.5
baylor/air force u 41

9-7 sides
9-5 totals
18-12 overall

 

[B.A.R.]

GL thks week Capo

 

[HUNT]

Good luck amigo

 

[EL CAPO]

week 4
3.25u -125 6 point teaser nebraska -1.5, wash state -7
5.5u
usc - 4 vs michigan
3.3u
tcu -2 vs smu
washington state -13 vs san jose state
duke -14.5 vs middle tennessee
arkansas 3 @ auburn
1.1u
texas tech -3 vs arizona state
florida -6.5 vs mississippi state
iowa -2.5 @ minnesota
lsu - 21 vs ucla
clemson -18 vs nc state
Lville -9 vs gt
ohio state -39.5 vs marshall
buffalo 14 @ northern illinois
army -7 @ rice
virginia -3 @ coastal
rutgers 3.5 @ va tech
sparty 7 @ boston college -130

ucla/lsu o 56.5
rice/army u 43.5
boston college/michigan state u 45.5
byu/kansas state u 49
cal/fsu u 44.5
washington state/san jose state o 55
duke/middle tennessee o 51
florida/miss state o 58.5
ole miss/georgia southern o 67.5
oklahoma/tennessee u 57
toledo/western kentucky o 59
akron/south carolina u 42.5
stanford/syracuse o 56.5
sam houston/nmstu u 44.5
add:
vandy/missouri o 52
houston/cincy u 48

week 4
sides 12-5
totals 11-5
overall 23-10

 

[UTSUX]

BOL this week

 

[EL CAPO]

great week 23-10 last week, 67-41 ,62% year to date - full game sides and totals
obviously - assigning confidence levels/units to my picks is much worse then the flat betting record

Week 5
3 laying 3.3
georgia -2 vs bama
nebraska -10 vs purdue
new mexico -7 @ new mexico state
central michigan -1 vs san diego state'
illinois 17.5 @ penn state
wisconsin 14.5 @ usc
texas -38 vs mississippi state
east carolina -3 vs utsa (-120)
charlotte 6.5 @ rice
1
ohio state -24 @ michigan state
memphis -24 vs middle tennessee state
unlv -3 vs fresno -120
lsu -20.5 vs south alabama
akron 12.5 @ ohio
louisiana monroe 8.5 @ troy
western michigan 5.5 @ marshall
unc 3 @ duke
iowa state -12 @ houston
3
oklahoma/auburn u 47.5
air fore wyoming u 36.5
byu/baylor u 45
michigan/minnesota u 39
umass/miami oh u 47.5
buffalo/uconn u 45.5
utsa/east carolina u 54.5
central michigan/san diego state u 55
1
ball state/james madison o 56.5
arkansas/texas am u 52
houston/iowa state u 43.5
memphis/middle tennessee state o 61.5
ADD:
boise state/washington state o 65
duke/unc u 55.5
lville/notre dame u 45.5
ucf -14 vs colorado
colorado/ucf o 62

considering
usf/tulane o 63.5
ucla 24 vs oregon
lville/notre dame u 48
troy/ul monroe u 46.5
georgia/alabama o 49.5

 

[EL CAPO]

week 5 results
10-7 sides
9-7 totals
19-14 overall
+35 units -34.1 units

86-55 ytd

 

[EL CAPO]

Week 6
6u , to win amount
Wisconsin -13.5 vs Purdue
3
Kansas +3 @arizona state
Nevada 7.5 @ San jose
Ohio state -21 vs iowa
Navy -8.5 vs air force
1
Stanford 9 vs va tech
Ucf 1 @ florida
Michigan state 24.5 @ oregon
Virginia -3 vs Boston college
UConn -14 vs temple
Colorado state 14 @ Oregon state
Miami oh 7 @ Toledo
Hawaii San Diego state u 47
Stanford/Virginia tech o 54
Iowa oh state o 44.5
Texas tech Arizona o 62
cuse/unlv o 58.5
Florida ucf o 61.5
add:
western michigan -9 vs ball state
jacksonville state -17 vs kennessaw state

8-5 sides
2-7 totals
10-12 overall

 

[EL CAPO]

96-67 ytd

Ohio state -3 @oregon (10u)
3
Missouri -27.5 vs umass
Iowa -2.5 vs washington
Virginia 7.5 vs louisville
Cincinnati +3 @ ucf
Illinois -22.5 vs purdue
Stanford 23.5 @notre dame
Tennessee - 15.5 vs florida

5
Utah/arizona state u45.5
Washington/iowa o42.5
2
Oklahoma/texas u 50.5
Kentucky/vanderbilt u 44.5
1
unlv/utah state o 66
unlv -18.5 vs utah state

leans
Kansas state -4 @ colorado
Northwestern 11 @maryland
Arizona state 4.5 vs utah
Clemson -20 vs wake
Rutgers -2.5 vswisconsin
South carolina 21 @alabama
LSU 3.5 vs ole miss
Louisiana tech -4.5vs middle ten state
Ball state -6.5 @kent state
air force 6.5 @ new mexico
Mid ten/la tech o 49
Ball state/kentstate o 59.5
Tennessee/florida o55.5

 

[EL CAPO]

96-67 ytd

Ohio state -3 @oregon (10u)
3
Missouri -27.5 vs umass
Iowa -2.5 vs washington
Virginia 7.5 vs louisville
Cincinnati +3 @ ucf
Illinois -22.5 vs purdue
Stanford 23.5 @notre dame
Tennessee - 15.5 vs florida

5
Utah/arizona state u45.5
Washington/iowa o42.5
2
Oklahoma/texas u 50.5
Kentucky/vanderbilt u 44.5
1
unlv/utah state o 66
unlv -18.5 vs utah state

leans
Kansas state -4 @ colorado
Northwestern 11 @maryland
Arizona state 4.5 vs utah
Clemson -20 vs wake
Rutgers -2.5 vswisconsin
South carolina 21 @alabama
LSU 3.5 vs ole miss
Louisiana tech -4.5vs middle ten state
Ball state -6.5 @kent state
air force 6.5 @ new mexico
Mid ten/la tech o 49
Ball state/kentstate o 59.5
Tennessee/florida o55.5

should of had la tech and over as officials

additional plays added

updated
Ohio state -3 @oregon (10u)
4
Stanford 23.5 @notre dame
Iowa -2.5 vs washington
Virginia 7.5 vs louisville
Illinois -22.5 vs purdue
3
Missouri -27.5 vs umass
Cincinnati +3 @ ucf
Tennessee - 15.5 vs florida
add
Kansas state -4 @ colorado
air force 6.5 @ new mexico
Arizona state 5.5 vs utah
wyoming -1 vs sand diego state
5
Utah/arizona state u45.5
Washington/iowa o42.5
3
Oklahoma/texas u 50.5
Kentucky/vanderbilt u 44.5
add
2
air force new mex o 55.5
west va iowa state o 52.5
ball state kent state o 60
1
unlv/utah state o 66
unlv -18.5 vs utah state

leans
Clemson -20 vs wake
Rutgers -2.5 vs wisconsin
South carolina 21 @alabama
LSU 3.5 vs ole miss
Louisiana tech -4.5vs middle ten state
Ball state -6.5 @kent state
Mid ten/la tech o 49

sides 6-7
totals 6-2
12-9

 

[EL CAPO]

Week 8
Bc 8 @ Virginia tech
Fsu duke u 42.5
Oregon -30 vs Purdue
Missouri -3.5 vs Auburn
Ecu army u 51
Indiana -6.5 vs Nebraska
Virginia 21 @ Clemson
Wisconsin -7 @ nw
South Carolina 1.5 @ Oklahoma
Eastern Michigan -3 vs Central
Illinois 3.5 vs Michigan
Charlotte navy o 56.5
Kansas -4 .5 vs Houston
Northern Illinois -2.5 vs Toledo
Western Michigan -1 @ buffalo
Texas tech -6.5 vs Baylor
Kentucky -2 @ Florida
Kentucky Florida u 42.5

 

[EL CAPO]

Week 8
Bc 8 @ Virginia tech
Fsu duke u 42.5
Oregon -30 vs Purdue
Missouri -3.5 vs Auburn
Ecu army u 51
Indiana -6.5 vs Nebraska
Virginia 21 @ Clemson
Wisconsin -7 @ nw
South Carolina 1.5 @ Oklahoma
Eastern Michigan -3 vs Central
Illinois 3.5 vs Michigan
Charlotte navy o 56.5
Kansas -4.5 vs Houston
Northern Illinois -2.5 vs Toledo
Western Michigan -1 @ buffalo
Texas tech -6.5 vs Baylor
Kentucky -2 @ Florida
Kentucky Florida u 42.5

updated card; last week 12-9
season record 108-76
Add:
south carolina/oklahoma u 41
iowa -6.5 @ michigan state
bama -3 @ tennessee
lsu -2.5 @ arkansas
arkansas state -7 @ southern miss
new mexico -1.5 @ utah state
smu/stanford o 53.5
james madison/georgia southern o 58.5
ucf/iowa state u 50.5
baylor/texas tech o 55.5

 

[EL CAPO]

week 9:
syracuse 4.5 @ pitt

 

[EL CAPO]

week 9:
syracuse 4.5 @ pitt

record update last week 15-13
season record 123-89
ADD:
3
Indiana -6.5 vs washington/53
Wisconsin 6.5 vs penn state
1
Iowa -13.5 vs northwestern
Maryland 4.5 @ minnesota
Usc -13.5 vs rutgers
Usc team total o 34.5
boston college 7.5 vs louisville
Bama -18 vs missouri
Utah -3 @ houston
Arkansas -6.5 @ mississippi state
illinois 21.5 @ oregon
3u
Wisconsin/penn state u 48
Georgia tech/virginia tech o 52
Michigan state/michigan u 39.5
Indiana/washington o 55
Notre dame/navy o 50.5
oregon/illinois o 54.5
Kansas/kansas state o 54.5
Kentucky/auburn u 44
Utah/houston u 36.5
Oklahoma/ole miss u 49
Maryland/minneosta u 46
7-5 sides, 6-5 totals
13-11

 

[C-MAN]

GL this week. Like USC tonight as well.

 

[EL CAPO]

13-11 last week
121-87 ytd
1
ole miss -6.5 @ arkansas
usc -2.5 @ washington
south carolina 2.5 @ texas am
pitt 8 @ smu
vanderbilt 7 @ auburn
unc -2.5 @ florida state
arizona state -3 @ oklahoma state
texas tech 14.5 @ iowa state
northwestern -1 @ purdue
nebraska -6.5 vs ucla
Illinois 3 vs minnesota
western kentucky -24.5 vs kennessaw state
kennessaw/western u 50.5
3
iowa wisconsin o 41
northwestern/purdue u 47.5
tamu south carolina u 44.5
oh state penn state u 47.5
tennessee/kentucky u 45.5
minnesota/illinois u 45.5
week 10;
8-4 sides
4-3 totals
12-7 week

 

[EL CAPO]

week 10
12-7
year to date
133-94

week 11 card so far
all 5u
Utep/kennessaw stateu 42.5
Utah byu u 42
Oklahoma vs missouri u 42.5
Vandy south carolinau 46.5
Arizona state ucf u56
Bama lsu o 58.5
Nc state duke u 50.5

Arizona state -3 vs ucf (-120)
Oregon state -3 vssan jose state
Virginia 7.5 @ pitt
Kansas 3 vs iowa state
Lsu 3 vs bama -115
South carolina -3 @ vanderbilt
Indiana -14 vs michigan
Clemson -6.5 @ virginia tech (-115)
Uconn -6.5 vs uab
Iowa -6 @ ucla
Texas -21 vs florida (-115)
Add:
Ohio state -38 vs Purdue
Washington 12 @ Penn state
West Virginia 4 @ Cincy

 

[EL CAPO]

10-11 last week
143-105 ytd

5u
lsu -3 (-120) vs florida
maryland -5.5 vs rutgers
kansas state -7 (-130) vs arizona state
syracuse 10 @ california
virginia 21.5 @ notre dame

3u
nebraska 7.5 @ usc
clemson -12.5 @ pitt
boise state -14.5 @ san jose state

missouri/south carolina u 41.5
boise/san jose state o 61.5
lsu/florida o 56
pitt/clemson u 52.5
smu/bc o 53.5

Add: Auburn up Monroe u 46
Maryland Rutgers o53.5
Penn state -29
Michigan state Illinois u 48
Kansas byu o 57.5

 

[B.A.R.]

10-11 last week
143-105 ytd

5u
lsu -3 (-120) vs florida
maryland -5.5 vs rutgers
kansas state -7 (-130) vs arizona state
syracuse 10 @ california
virginia 21.5 @ notre dame

3u
nebraska 7.5 @ usc
clemson -12.5 @ pitt
boise state -14.5 @ san jose state

missouri/south carolina u 41.5
boise/san jose state o 61.5
lsu/florida o 56
pitt/clemson u 52.5
smu/bc o 53.5

Add: Auburn up Monroe u 46
Maryland Rutgers o53.5
Penn state -29
Michigan state Illinois u 48
Kansas byu o 57.5

GL tomorrow cap