Thoughts so far.......Gun to my head picks....nothing finalized except for already posted play.
Gun to my head:
Tampa +3 / U47.5
-Tampa seems to have had the Falcons number in recent matches. Winning both games last year SU, once when favored by 1 at home and once when dogged by 8 on the road. Everything I'm reading and hearing is that Ryan doesn't look too great, and while that may only be preseason it still matters. Winston has a season under his belt now, but an aging Vincent Jackson concerns me. It will be interesting to see who ends up winning the battle TE. May be already decided but I haven't seen it yet. I love Julio for obvious reasons and Devonta is a stud but if Matty Ice can't get them the ball, well then....
Matty's struggles in the red zone concern me, like they did all of last year, he proved it again in the 3rd preseason game, throwing a yolo pass that got intercepted. I bet the Falcons over 7 wins, but i hate it. They started out strong last year, but that had alot to do with schedule and I don't think it was indicative of if they were good or not.
Minnesota -2 /U41
-Bradford should be serviceable for the Vikings this season, and while its a downgrade from Teddy, I'm not sure it is so terrible. I think the Vikings will be pounding the ground game based on the QB scenario, and allowing their defense, which was good last year, to try and control the tempo but it might not be that easy. You never know with Mariota into his 2nd year and now the Murray/Henry backfield as well as a very high upset group of receivers. Not sold on it yet, need to keep looking, just my initial outlook.
Just take the under, both teams will run the piss out of the ball. I'd be surprised if we saw more than 28 pts in this game, which sucks, because I'm heading to Nashville this weekend.
Cleveland +4 / Over 41
- I like the over a decent amount here, but again the QB situation concerns me, especially in Philly. I like RG3 making the return to starter and the reboot of the squad it seems, but not wild about his support staff. I don't know enough about Duke and Isiah except that both graced a fantasy team of mine last year in desperation but the young receiving corps is intriguing. I think that the Eagles have a lot of weapons and can score pretty quick if Wentz or Daniels (I think he was named the starter right?) can get them the ball. Lean Over 41 here but not sold on the game line.
Cleveland basically sent everyone with a pulse on defense out of town. The RG3/Pryor/Coleman offense is sexy as fuck on paper. Philly is much improved on defense. Doug Pederson loves to run the ball, and control the game....Another under game. I don't see Wentz having alot of success and I don't see RG3 having much either.
Jets +2.5 /O41.5
I don't like this total but I do like the Jets for a few different reasons, mostly because of the question marks surround the Bengals, Eifert likely out or already out, Green seems to battling a pussy toe, Burflict out, and seems like a ton of lingering issues for a lot of other players. I think Forte is a huge addition for the Jets, already love Decker and Marshall at the WR spot and Fitz has the experience and skill to do some damage as well. Still learning each teams D but traditionally they have both been decent. Hard to bet the under when teams have this kind of weapons on both sides of the offense, so I would likely stay away.
Both teams have stellar defenses, I expect Fitzmagic to regress a ton this year, he basically had a career year last year...for a guy that has been a career backup...not to mention holding out for $....Revis aint the same, and AJ should feast on him. Jets love to Blitz, and Dalton has crushed teams that blitz him.
Saints -1 / O51
-so I think the Raiders are going to be on a big uptick this season to be honestly, but maybe not right away. Brees and his team of what could be a good of a group as he's had in a while in terms of tools on offense, and I love Fleener at TE this year. I think the over is maybe the play, although I feel that I've been drastically let down by the Saints on totals in the last year or so. They do know how to put up the points in Nawlins though, and this Raiders team, while better on D than most, could get beat up a little bit. I don't think I could go through with the Saints play though as I don't know if I trust the D enough to believe they get the W.
Favorite play of the week on the Saints. Everyone wants to buy the Raiders and the Jags, because they have such Fantasy sexiness, but this is real life football...and until the raiders can prove they've taken that next step...I'll ride with Brees @ a pk @ home. Losing Rob Ryan as the D-Coordinator is addition by subtraction. Saints D can't get any worse than they were last year. Raiders have probably the best O-line in football next to Dallas, definitely an interesting game.
Chiefs -7 / U44.5
- this seems like too easy of a play, they both do really, so now I'm stuck second guessing them for the next few days. The Chargers offered me little by way of improvement besides putting some money into Benjamin, but that I don't think makes them all that much better honestly, just feels like replacing other similar targets for Rivers. I hate the Chiefs WR's for the most part, and I need more information on Charles before I could pull the trigger here but I feel that the Chiefs win this in a 24-13 type game.
Ware is likely to get the start and most of the playing time in KC, I doubt that Charles is a go. San Diego was decimated by injury last year, they were basically signing guys off the street to play O-line and in the secondary....They're healthy, and 7 is alot to lay in a division game.
Buffalo +3 / U44.5
- the Raven's seem like mess, they don't really have anyone to run the ball, they cut Forsett then Dixon gets hurt so it will be interesting to see who gets the bulk of the carries, I would imagine Javorious Allen. Kamar Aiken is solid as is Steve Smith but nothing I'm scared to death of if I am Buffalo. Buffalo seems extremely strong on offense with Shady, Watkins, Clay, Tyrod and so on. Not too wild about the total but I'm interested in Buffalo for sure.
Forsett will play on 1st/2nd down, and Allen will be the 3rd down back. I think this game goes over...Baltimore has Trestman at the O-Cord, and you know how much he loves to pass the ball. Baltimore's defense isn't the same defense they use to have, they're old and slow. Buffalo now has Rob Ryan as their d-Coord....Ryans defenses have sucked dick historically. Flacco has a ton of weapons in Smith Sr, Aiken, Perriman, Wallace. Baltimore has Tygod, Watkins, and McCoy. Think this one fly's over.
Bears +6.5 / O44
- come on, did you expect me to not take the Bears? But on a serious note, I don't think the preseason will be indicative of this Bears team, but at the same time I haven't seen shit from Alshon to get me excited, but the Bears will undoubtedly be winging the ball quite a bit this year. They got a lot better at OG this week but their defense is still super suspect, I am not sure what I do with this game. I also don't know how well Brock will do in Houston, he has Miller and Hopkins but some other young WR's. Love Fuller, think he will be a beast in due time so I think some points get on the board in this game, but I'm torn overall on this game.
Your secondary is shit, you're going to be missing 3 starting CB's I believe? Miller was one of the best backs in the league last year when Miami actually used him....but Miami is fucking stupid and they rarely used him. Nuk requires double coverage, which will give Fuller free rain for the deep ball. Adam Gase made Jay Cutler great again, but now he is gone as well. I think you guys really struggle this year. 6.5 is alot to lay for a team lead by Brock, but there is a serious talent difference here....on both sides of the ball.
Packers -5 / O48
-shoot be a good ole fashioned shootout. I don't think the Jags can stop the Pack, even if Jordy is limited in his routes as reported to start the season. Lacy seems to be looking good, shed some weight, etc. It's the Packers and it's Discount Double Check, throw in that he gets Jordy back and Cook at TE was a nice addition. I would be very surprised to see Rodgers go down to the Jags in this game. That being said, the Jaguars are intriguing, and I think they will put up some points as well. Allen Robinson and Hurns are studs and Bortles can flat out chuck the rock. I like the Over a good amount and the Pack as well.
I bet the over 47 when this came out. Rodgers always puts up points early in the year, and Bortles will have to match. Jags got better on defense, but not sure that matters here
Miami +10.5 / U44.5
-surprised to see almost 80% of the public on the Over in this game. The Seahawks at home are devastating as a rule on D, and I don't know that Miami will be able to keep up with them. But the Seahawks are for all intensive purposes a very deliberate offense. I don't know what I think of Rawls but I do like Russell Wilson and think he's a great QB even though I am still bitter about his come from behind W against the Bears back in 2012 in his rookie season, screwing the Bears up on their playoff run. Miami has some weapons and Tannenhill seems to be really coming into his own. His mobility should help him this season, but maybe not in this game. 10.5 is a ton of points to cover though so I'm torn.
Miami has the type of receivers that can give Seattle troubles. Small, fast, slot receivers. Rawls is likely not going to start, Christian Michael should get the nod. Seattles offensive line was one of the worst in football last year. No play for me.
Giants PK / U49
-this game has shit show written all over it. It will probably sail over but I don't like it. I have not been keeping up too much with the Giants but besides Shepard. I need to look at this game more, but Elliot as an addition is very exciting for the Cowboys, so knows at this point.
Cowboys will really try and slow this game down. I wouldn't be surprised to see Zeke and Dak combine for 40-45 rushing attempts. I think this game stays way under. Cowboys shut down OBJ last year, not sure if that was based on scheme, or what......I really like Shepard as the #2 receiver in NY this year.
Colts -3.5 / O51
- The Colts should return to form from 2 years ago I think this season. Luck is back and just another year better, he has some good talent around him but his line is still weak, maybe it will be better this year but that remains to be seen. The Lions lost the heart and soul of their offense and I think Stafford will still be alright but it might take a little time to get into his roll, I just don't see Marvin Jones filling that gap for him. I think if anything this game sails over, neither defense impresses me all that much.
This game should go over the total by halftime. If you like it bet it now, because come Sunday it should be sitting at 53.
Cardinals -6 / U47
- ugh, the Patriots without Brady, I won't touch this game, on any level, I just don't know how to cap a game of the Pats without Brady under center, or behind center a few feet. The offense looks the same for the Pats besides maybe some more 2 TE sets, and more Martellus Bennet dropping passes that hit his numbers, both hands and helmet before touching the ground, then him stomping off like a bitch and complaining. The Cardinals have so many weapons on Offense too, I just see them taking this one.
Steelers -3 / O50
- looks to be a good ole fashioned shoot out, with LeVeon out, DeAngelo picks up the slack pretty well, and the rest of the crew is there besides the criminals in the group. Yes Big Ben is another year older but the dude is such a bad ass, I think he tears it up with Brown. The Skins are interesting this year but I think they will face decent amount of troubles this year. I am not a huge fan of the WR corps there, Desean is too much high risk reward and Pierre is French. Well and he's getting old.
Rams -2.5 / U43.5
-puke fest, both teams probably will suck this year but the 49ers will suck more. I know very little about both teams so I need to get to work on this one.
opcorn:
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