Eggman’s Gut Feelings

eggman

eggman

Pretty much a regular
For those of you that know me, not a big researcher. I have 2 trends I bet blindly and the rest of my wagers are gut feelings and/or homer bets on my Bears. I do think their number is low on season wins so I’m pounding it but beyond that I haven’t even started looking.

Trends I follow:
1. Home dogs of 7 or more: this hit at 13-4 last year and somewhere in my computer I have about 10 years of research showing this hits at a 65%+ rate.
2. Games with a line of 9.5 or more, bet the under. This was 17-12 last year for a 58% clip which is plenty enough to the good for me to follow. Got this from someone but can’t remember who.

Will follow these all year and then of course my gut plays and hopefully less parlays than last year…

Season wagers:
Bears O7.5 wins 8/6*
Bears win the NFC North 2/6.6*

NFL
22-23: 144-179 +26*
21-22: 150-210 +27.8*
20-21: 81-86 (9.6*)
19-20: 124-197 (23.4*)
18-19: 183-170 +26.2*
17-18: 158-154 +6.5*
2017-2023 (6 seasons): 840-996 +53.5*
 
Last edited:
Getting old and blaming it for forgetting shit is what life is all about

Have a year Egg!
 
eggman said:
For those of you that know me, not a big researcher. I have 2 trends I bet blindly and the rest of my wagers are gut feelings and/or homer bets on my Bears. I do think their number is low on season wins so I’m pounding it but beyond that I haven’t even started looking.

Trends I follow:
1. Home dogs of 7 or more: this hit at 13-4 last year and somewhere in my computer I have about 10 years of research showing this hits at a 65%+ rate.
2. Games with a line of 9.5 or more, bet the under. This was 17-12 last year for a 58% clip which is plenty enough to the good for me to follow. Got this from someone but can’t remember who.

Will follow these all year and then of course my gut plays and hopefully less parlays than last year…

Season wagers:
Bears O7.5 wins 8/6*
Bears win the NFC North 2/6.6*

NFL
22-23: 144-179 +26*
21-22: 150-210 +27.8*
20-21: 81-86 (9.6*)
19-20: 124-197 (23.4*)
18-19: 183-170 +26.2*
17-18: 158-154 +6.5*
2017-2023 (6 seasons): 840-996 +53.5*
Click to expand...
Good stuff man..

Two excellent trends posted.

Excited for the season!
 
Forgot to post today. Sorry fellas. 9+ Under system took it in the shorts. Lost by 0.5 and 1 respectively. Ouch. Home Dogs of 7+ went 1-0 with rams though.
 
NFL: 11-16 (0.5*)

Sides: 1-2 (1.3*)

Totals: 1-0 +0.4*

Parlays: 6-12 (1*)
Bal/Dal/Jax/KC 1/2.5*
LAC10/NYJ12.5/Was15.5 1*
Ten13.5/AZ22/Chi22.5 1*
Pitt13/TB15/LAR12.5 1*
Den17.5/Was17.5/LAC10.5/NYJ14.5/Chi24.5/AZ24.5/LAR14.5/Pitt14.5/TB17.5/GB11.5 .2/1*

9+U: 2-2 (0.4*)
Hou/Jax U44 2*
Dal/AZ U43.5 2*
Chi/KC U48 2*

7+ HD: 1-0 +2*
Cardinals +12.5 2*
 
NFL: 14-24 (6.9*)

Sides: 1-2 (1.5*)
Rams -1.5 1*
Bengals -2.5 1*

Totals: 1-0 +0.4*
Mia/Buf O52.5 1*

Parlays: 8-18 (2.4*)
MiaO42/Phi/KC/LAC .2/.4*
Phi/KC/SF/Dal/LAC .4/.8*
Chi10.5/FieldsO150pa/50ru .4/.6*

9+U: 2-5 (7*)
AZ/SF U44 2*
NYJ/KC U42.5 2*
Was/Phi U43 2*

7+ HD: 2-0 +4*
Jets +9.5 2*
 
NFL: 19-31 (10*)
Sides: 2-3 (1.6*)
Bears +7 2*
Totals: 2-0 +1.4*
Parlays: 10-20 (1.6*)
9+U: 2-8 (13.6*)
Mia/NYG U49 2*
7+ HD: 3-0 +6*
 
NFL: 33-37 +2.3*

Sides: 4-3 +1.6*
Lions +3 1*
Rams -3 1*
Dolphins ML 1*

Totals: 2-0 +1.4*

Parlays: 16-25 +1.3*
Jags8/O34.5 1*

9+U: 5-10 (12*)

7+ HD: 5-0 +10*
Patriots +8.5 2*
Vikings +7 2*
 
NFL: 38-46 +4.2*

Sides: 4-6 (1.6*)
Bengals +5.5 1*

Totals: 2-1 +0.3*

Parlays: 18-30 +1.4*
Bal/Mia/Phi/LAC/Det/Dal/KC 0.2/1.1*
Bal/Mia/Phi 1*

9+U: 6-10 (10*)
Bal/AZ U44.5 2*

7+ HD: 7-0 +14*
Commanders +7 2*
Broncos +7 2*
Cardinals +9.5 2*
 
7+ home dogs is on fire!
9.5+ lines to the under started like shit but is coming back… here we are….

NFL: 43-56 +6.6*
Sides: 6-6 +0*
Totals: 2-1 +0.3*
Parlays: 19-38 (1.5*)
Lions/ttO43.5 1.2*
9+U: 7-11 (10.2*)
7+ HD: 9-0-1 +18*
 
NFL: 44-57 +6.9*

Sides: 6-6 +0*

Totals: 2-1 +0.3*

Parlays: 20-39 (1.2*)
Mia8/O44 1*
Mia-KCo51.5/Mostert46ry/Hill87/Kelce81 .1/.5

9+U: 7-11 (10.2*)
AZ/Cle U38.5 2*
Chi/NO U41 2*

7+ HD: 9-0-1 +18*
 
Rolling hard tonight… love this bet for so many reasons…

Cin/Buf O51 2-*

Lets go fellas
 
In Green Bay tonight. Probably heading to the Oval Office.

Weird for me because I was in Detroit and the Lions played the rams and now the packers did.

Rams sucked last Monday and really bad today. Hopefully Cooper Kupp got to ride in first class on the way home because his QB has never understood who he is the last few weeks.
 
eggman said:
In Green Bay tonight. Probably heading to the Oval Office.

Weird for me because I was in Detroit and the Lions played the rams and now the packers did.

Rams sucked last Monday and really bad today. Hopefully Cooper Kupp got to ride in first class on the way home because his QB has never understood who he is the last few weeks.
Click to expand...

Lions played Raiders last week Eggman!
 
eggman said:
I might need to stop drinking. Holy shit. Been talking about this all day. 40 people at least. First person to call me out. appreciate it so much
Click to expand...

It's all good. You got the first 2 letters and last letter right.
 
So my lines of 9.5 or more to the under is killing me this year. Was so good last year and this year just treacherous.

NFL: 54-76-2 (12.6*)

Sides: 9-7 +0
Totals: 2-2 (1.9)
Parlays: 26-45 (.4)
9+U: 10-18-1 (19.6)
7+ HD: 9-4-1 +9.1
 
NFL: 57-76-2 (10*)
Sides: 10-7 +2.6*
Totals: 2-2 (1.9*)
Parlays: 26-45 (0.3*)
9+U: 10-18-1 (19.6*)
7+ HD: 9-4-1 +9.2*

Been a less than amusing year for me. Systems have been bunk and I’m just not getting a good read right now or I guess paying enough attention to the rest of the stuff. Stupid parlay shit here and there hasn’t been fruitful.

Leans heading into next week:
Colts -2
Eagles ML
Rams -4
Cardinals +5.5
 
Well this was a huge miss and sorry anyone that considered it….

Games with a line of 9.5 or more, bet the under. This was 17-12 last year for a 58% clip which is plenty enough to the good for me to follow. Got this from someone but can’t remember who.

11-24 this year. Overs in the same trend are crushing. Killed me because I followed it.
 
Well that ends the worst season I’ve had in a long time! Lol. I got killed on my “trends” bets.

Game Line of 9.5+ to the Under was awesome last year at 17-12 and had a major correction to 13-28 to really crush the season all around.

Home Dogs of 7+ was 13-4 last year and 10-8 this year. So still a “good trend” at 23-12 over 2 years (need to find my old research, it’s hit at a good clip over the past 10 years or so.

Anyway, the big kick in the dick was the Fondypackers today taking out my Bears to crush my O7.5 wins bet.

Calling it a season and cutting my losses. Only thing I’m really mad about is my straight sides were decent at 24-18 and totals at 3-4 but oh well. Got to stop being a homer and betting the Bears season totals over because that was a 26* hit.

Best of luck this post season fellas.

23-24: 81-130-4 (82*)
22-23: 144-179 +26*
21-22: 150-210 +27.8*
20-21: 81-86 (9.6*)
19-20: 124-197 (23.4*)
18-19: 183-170 +26.2*
17-18: 158-154 +6.5*
2017-2024 (7 seasons): 921-1126 (28.5*)
 
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