EDizzle's Week 5 NFL Selections

EDizzle

The Danny Snyder Fanclub
Will update record later, hungover from DC last night. This is what i'm rolling with today

San Diego +1
Arizona -3.5
NY Giants -3.5
Washington -3.5
 
NFL 2007-08
ATS: 6-6-2 (-0.95)
O/U: 0-1 (-1.2)
ML: 0-1 (-2)<O></O>
Teasers: 0-1 (-2.3)
Parlays: 1-0 (+1.6)
Total: -4.85 units
 
<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap>1st and 10 at SL 47</TD><TD>(2:00) (Shotgun) G.Frerotte pass short right to T.Minor to ARZ 40 for 13 yards (K.Dansby).</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap>1st and 10 at ARZ 40</TD><TD>(1:35) G.Frerotte pass to T.Minor to ARZ 33 for 7 yards (K.Dansby).</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap>2nd and 3 at ARZ 33</TD><TD>(1:05) G.Frerotte pass short left to T.Minor to ARZ 23 for 10 yards (R.Brown).</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap>1st and 10 at ARZ 23</TD><TD>(:48) G.Frerotte spiked the ball to stop the clock.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap>2nd and 10 at ARZ 23</TD><TD>(:47) (Shotgun) G.Frerotte sacked at ARZ 29 for -6 yards (B.Berry).</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap>3rd and 16 at ARZ 29</TD><TD class=bi>(:20) (Shotgun) G.Frerotte pass deep right to R.McMichael for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>34</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>29</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD>Play Challenged by Replay Assistant and Upheld.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD class=bi>TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. G.Frerotte pass to T.Holt is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

:moose:


</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>34</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>31</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
San Diego +1money;

Arizona -3.5:moose:

NY Giants -3.5money;

Washington -3.5money;

3-1 for the day, really thought I had 4-0, I stopped watching Arizona after the two minute warning and come back to a facking moose. But i'll take 4.9 units thank you very much.

I'm kinda leaning towards Chicago +3 tonight, i'm gonna look up some stuff and make up my mind before kickoff.

GL Tonight:cheers:
 
ADDING:

Chicago +3.5....2.1 to win 2

The bears are in must win situation. I got a feeling the get the W here. All they gotta do is not turn the ball over. Hester needs to get more involved in the offense....the guy makes plays get his ass in there Lovie!

I am concerned with the defensive injuries but they will lay it all on the line tonight
 
Season Recap: Starting from week 1

WEEK 1(-4.4 units)
Washington -3 push

Philly -3 loss -2.4

Balt ML loss -2

WEEK 2(-9.15 units)

Chicago -12 loss 3.15

Dallas
-3.5 win 3

Seattle
-2.5 loss 2.3

San diego
+3.5 loss 2.2

Philly -6.5 loss -2.2

Teaser philly -1/U44.4 loss -2.3


WEEK 3(+3.6 units)

Indy -6 push

Pitt -9 win 2

Indy ML/Philly ML/KC -3/Pitt ML/Balt ML/Dallas ML win 1.6
<st1:state w:st="[/IMG]<ST1
"><st1:city w:st="
<ST1
"><st1:city w:st="
<ST1
"><st1:city w:st="
<ST1
"><st1:city w:st="
<ST1
">[FONT=Verdana]<st1:city w:st="
<ST1<img" src="images/smilies/tongue.gif" border="0" alt="" title="Stick Out Tongue" smilieid="5" class="inlineimg">
WEEK 4(+5.7 units)

Dallas -1
</st1:city>[/FONT]3 win 2 <o></o>
Minny loss 1.1<o></o>

<st1:city w:st="on"><st1>Seattle </st1></st1:city>
-1 win 2<o></o>
Giants +2 win 2<o></o>
NE -7.5 win 2<o></o>
NE @ CINCY OVER 26 second half bet loss -1.2<o></o>
<st1:city w:st="on">
WEEK 5(+1.6 units)
San Diego</st1:city> +1 win 2

<st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state> -3.5 loss 2.1
NY Giants -3.5 win 2
<st1><st1:state w:st="on">Washington</st1:state></st1> -3.5 win 2<o></o>
Chicago +3.5 win 2
Dallas -9.5 loss 4.3
<o>
</o>
</st1:city></st1:city></st1:city></st1:city></st1:state>
 
Last edited:
UPDATED RECORD

NFL 2007-08
ATS: 10-8-2 (+1.25)
O/U: 0-1 (-1.2)
ML: 0-1 (-2)<o></o>
Teasers: 0-1 (-2.3)
Parlays: 1-0 (+1.6)
Total: -2.65 units
 
Last edited:
I posted some of this in the week 5 discussion thread but figured I'll put it in my thread because this is who I'm backing tonight. This is a larger than normal play for me, I'm looking to make a move tonight!

<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> If you want to make money on your billy goats I suggest taking them first half. Dallas has been playing it close in the first half, then have been able to wear teams down in the second half having their way.

Cowboys are allowing fewer points every week and winning by a bigger margin each week.
  1. New York — 35 points allowed; 10 point win
  2. Miami — 20 points allowed; 17 point win
  3. Chicago — 10 points allowed; 24 point win
  4. St. Louis — 7 points allowed; 28 point win
I agree the Bills never get respect at home, and if it weren't for them beating the pathetic jets last week then we are looking at a 14 point line prolly.

The only worries I have are special teams, now Dallas was able to shut down Hester a few weeks ago but lost their special teams stud Keith Davis and all coverage units broke down last week. The human joystick Dante Hall housed one punt and set up the lambs with great field position all day. Roscoe Parrish is just as dangerous, and if Dallas special teams cant contain him then we could see some bills special teams score.

There is just way to many injuries for me to back this billy goat defense. They are DEAD last in total defense(430 YPG) and they are going up against the #1 scoring offense. Their defense is going to have to get by on the MNF atmosphere and adrenaline to keep up with the dallas offense.

On the other hand we have the Bill offense who averages 226 YPG(31st in league) and 10.3 PPG (31st in the league.) Now I dont really care how good Trent Edwards looked against the Jets D, they are terrible at getting after the QB. They only have 3 sacks on the season, which is 3rd last in the league. Dallas has been solid against the run giving up 80 rushing YPG(7th in NFL) I'm not saying Marshawn Lynch is bad, but he has only been AVERAGE this season at 3.8 YPC. So Edwards is going to have to beat them deep with Lee Evens or Parrish, and neither Losman or Edwards have done so all season.
 
his is coming from another website, it is a dallas website but the author Rafael Vela does a good job of being objective. He also gets into player personnel, match ups and game plan.

When Dallas Has the Ball
(sigh) We’ve got to wait again for our fun as the Cowboys will be on Monday Night Football. They’re excited in Buffalo where this will be their first home MNF in years. Too bad they’re so injury riddled. Still, expect a vocal crowd. (Too bad they can’t drown out the MNF’s crew’s blather, but that’s grist for another rant.”

The Cowboys will bring the league’s top scoring offense to face the NFL’s worst defense, in terms of yards. The Bills have been respectable in points allowed, though they still rank 20th in that category.
Buffalo has played a lot of cover-2 in recent years, keeping both safeties deep to prevent the big play. Unfortunately, that tactic has not worked particularly well this year. Injuries have wiped out the free safety position, with starter Ko Simpson lost for the year. His backup Jim Leonhard is also injured, so starting SS Donte Whitner will be moved to the deep middle this week.

Buffalo’s D suffered another blow last week when MLB Paul Posluszny was lost for the year with a broken arm. Cover-2 schemes rely on athleticism; in the most basic cover-2 packages the corners jam the WRs and then release them to safeties who cover the deep thirds. The key to making the cover-2 click is an athletic MLB who can drop deep and cover the deep middle.

Buffalo has lost two thirds of its deep shell and has leaked big pass plays despite the bend-but-don’t break coverage. The Bills have surrendered an NFL-worst 18 pass plays of 20 yards or more. That’s 4.5 per game! What’s worse, with Whitner moving deep the strong safety spot will be manned by Bryan Scott, an ‘06 Saints backup who was signed just three weeks ago.
With all the duct tape and bailing wire holding the secondary together, the Bills have a poor rush to protect them. Buffalo has only four sacks in their four games. Only three teams have fewer.

So how do you attack a scheme like this? Where it’s most vulnerable — in the intermediate and deep middle. Look for the tight ends to get lots of work on deep ins and outs against backup MLB John DiGiorgio and the newbie SS Scott. With Buffalo likely playing a lot of three deep coverage to guard against bombs, look for an “inside-out” game plan from Jason Garrett. Send the tight ends deeper and work the receivers on lots of short and intermediate crossing routes, where they will get matchups on the Bills’ outside linebackers.

Tony Romo
will get his chances to scan the field because the Cowboys’ line will stress the Bills’ front. Buffalo has gone with speed, just as Chicago and St. Louis have. There’s not a lineman on Buffalo’s front four over 300 lbs. The Cowboys started slowly against both other teams because the Bears and Rams used a lot of overloaded fronts. I don’t think Buffalo will do this, because the Bills’ cornerbacks are not strong in man coverage. Besides, the Bills won’t want to isolate their strong safety on Witten without help.

Consequently, I think Dallas might open passing but will quickly pound at the Buffalo front. The Bills have allowed 100 rushing days to Travis Henry, Willie Parker and Lawrence Maroney already. Marion Barber has gotten the better yards but I’m sure he and Julius Jones are both eager to get their carries against the Buffalo front seven.
 
When Buffalo has the Ball

The Bills finally won against the Jets last week behind rookie QB Trent Edwards. Edwards appears more decisive than veteran J.P. Losman. Though he and Losman have almost the exact same number of attempts and their completion percentages are similar, Edwards averages a yard and a half more per attempt and has been sacked less than half as often. Edwards had a disciplined game versus New York, hitting 79% of his throws.

That said, Buffalo’s passing attack rates as the 31st best in the league. The Jets game was the only breakout game for the Buffalo QBs and receivers, raising the question of whether Edwards is bringing the Bills attack into focus or whether the Jets secondary is poor.

The Jets effort aside the Buffalo passing offense has been poor. The Bills had just 261 passing yards in their first three games, less than 90 per game. Opponents have been very successful doubling WR Lee Evans, the Bills one blue chip wideout. The diminutive Evans has blazing speed and is fast in and out of his cuts. Without a consistent second threat — former Cowboys castoff Peerless Price is the #2 — Evans has only averaged 9.2 yards per reception after averaging 15.5 yards per his first three seasons.

The Cowboys will certainly give corners Jacques Reeves and Terence Newman help. If they can eliminate big plays the Bills will be hard pressed to consistently mount drives. Buffalo is averaging just over 10 points a game this year and has a high of 17.

Rookie RB Marshawn Lynch has been the team’s most consistent weapon. Though he’s averaging a so-so 3.8 yards per carry behind the team’s giant offensive line, Lynch has given the Bills a respectable rushing attack. Buffalo invested heavily in G Derrick Dockery and RT Langston Walker in the offseason. They and emerging star LT Jason Peters give Buffalo a line almost as big as Dallas’.

The weakness for Dallas’ run defense has been up the middle. Chris Canty and Marcus Spears get little mention but they have responded well to the new scheme. They and OLBs Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer have kept wide runs under control. Look for Buffalo to hammer up the middle, as every Dallas opponent has done this year.

Special Teams


This game will match two of the best punters in Buffalo’s Brian Moorman and Dallas’ Mat McBriar. When Dallas punts they will need a healthy Keith Davis to anchor their coverage. Davis is an inside runner on the punt team, lining up just left of snapper L.P. Ladouceur and taking a central lane. Last week the Rams’ Dante Hall returned a punt for a touchdown, cutting up field in the lane Davis would have occupied.
This week the Cowboys face Roscoe Parrish, who boasts a 33.3 yard return average (which includes a 74 yard touchdown return). Dallas could surrender lots of field position if Davis’ can’t return.

Prediction
:

Trap game?

Maybe, if Dallas is dreaming of New England. But which of the Cowboys’ performances this year suggests a letdown? The Cowboys offense has been consistently good while the defense has gotten steadily better every game.
The Cowboys are outscoring Buffalo by 28 points a game. Think of all the things Buffalo will have to do right and the Cowboys will have to do wrong to eliminate that gap.

Dallas is a slow starting team, but so is Buffalo. The Bills have just 14 points in their games before halftime.

Buffalo surprised New England two games ago, taking a 7-0 lead before falling 38-7. They’ll be sky high for their first Monday Night game in eons, but the Cowboys simply have more weapons.

Wade wants this, so Dallas should be prepared.

Dallas 30, Buffalo 10
 
Its all good I can see the argument for Buffalo. Its tough to pass on a DD home dog on MNF. There are a lot of trends out there supporting the Bills, but trends got to come to an end sooner or later. I've said my piece on this game and its documented how I feel. I was objective as possible in capping this game and hopefully it was useful for someone out there.
 
Broke down my season recap into each week. Man I started out bad, but guess what? He's heating up!!!

Lets keep it rolling tonight fellas.:cheers:
 
Thanks for the well wishes ATP:cheers:

Feeling good about tonight. I'm ready to:spank:the bookie.
 
Good call Bills backers, it was evident I was on the wrong side of this one early on. Even though I still saw a shot for them to cover after halftime. I just didnt foresee 21 points from their defense and special teams. I want to forget this one and get cracking on next weeks lines.

Lets kill it this week fellas.
 
Back
Top