I posted some of this in the week 5 discussion thread but figured I'll put it in my thread because this is who I'm backing tonight. This is a larger than normal play for me, I'm looking to make a move tonight!
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> If you want to make money on your billy goats I suggest taking them first half. Dallas has been playing it close in the first half, then have been able to wear teams down in the second half having their way.
Cowboys are allowing fewer points every week and winning by a bigger margin each week.
- New York — 35 points allowed; 10 point win
- Miami — 20 points allowed; 17 point win
- Chicago — 10 points allowed; 24 point win
- St. Louis — 7 points allowed; 28 point win
I agree the Bills never get respect at home, and if it weren't for them beating the pathetic jets last week then we are looking at a 14 point line prolly.
The only worries I have are special teams, now Dallas was able to shut down Hester a few weeks ago but lost their special teams stud Keith Davis and all coverage units broke down last week. The human joystick Dante Hall housed one punt and set up the lambs with great field position all day. Roscoe Parrish is just as dangerous, and if Dallas special teams cant contain him then we could see some bills special teams score.
There is just way to many injuries for me to back this billy goat defense. They are DEAD last in total defense(430 YPG) and they are going up against the #1 scoring offense. Their defense is going to have to get by on the MNF atmosphere and adrenaline to keep up with the dallas offense.
On the other hand we have the Bill offense who averages 226 YPG(31st in league) and 10.3 PPG (31st in the league.) Now I dont really care how good Trent Edwards looked against the Jets D, they are terrible at getting after the QB. They only have 3 sacks on the season, which is 3rd last in the league. Dallas has been solid against the run giving up 80 rushing YPG(7th in NFL) I'm not saying Marshawn Lynch is bad, but he has only been AVERAGE this season at 3.8 YPC. So Edwards is going to have to beat them deep with Lee Evens or Parrish, and neither Losman or Edwards have done so all season.