E$PN INSIDERS - Steele/Harris Picks and a couple more ... Week 5

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My 10 best Week 5 college football ATS bets
Phil Steele

Each week during the 2015 college football season I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.

This year has started off on a solid note. In the first four weeks, my selections have now gone 34-6 (85 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 23-17 (58 percent) against the spread (ATS).

So far this year, there have been 10 meetings between ranked teams. The higher-rated team is 8-2 straight up but the underdog is 6-4 ATS in those matchups. This week is the biggest week to date with five matchups between ranked teams.

Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.


No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 12 Clemson Tigers (PK) 8:00 PM ET, ABC
College GameDay will be on hand for this one and Clemson has one of the best entrances in college football. The Tigers have the QB advantage with Deshaun Watson and the home-field edge as well. Toss in the fact that Notre Dame is just 2-10 in true road game versus ranked teams and Clemson looks like the easy play.

However, I am going to call for Notre Dame to grab the win on the road. Brian Kelly feels this is his best team yet, and last year the Fighting Irish would have knocked off the defending champs (Florida State) on the road had they not been called for pass interference late. He also had a team play in the national title game. This is a tough one to call, but I am very high on the Irish this year and I believe they will stay unbeaten.

ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 27, Clemson 23


Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen (-5.5)
Yes, I know that neither of these two teams are ranked, but they are both service academies that we can be proud of and they are a combined 5-1 this year with the only loss to No. 2 Michigan State. Not only has Air Force taken on the tougher schedule this year, the Falcons are stronger statistically. Air Force has outgained its foes by 195 yards per game and Navy by 61 yards per game.

The underdog in this series is an outstanding 10-1-1 ATS and there have been eight outright upsets the last 12 years! Keep in mind these games are usually lower scoring than expected as both teams practice versus the option every day. The clincher is that Navy has never played in a conference before but now finds itself in first place in its division, with Notre Dame on deck. Air Force is used to playing both conference and service academy games and is fresh off a bye. I think the Falcons take this one.

ATS pick: Air Force
Score: Air Force 24, Navy 23


No. 23 West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5)
I expected West Virginia to have its best defense yet under Dana Holgorsen and that has been the case. QB Skyler Howard threw the first interception of his career last week which speaks volumes about how he takes care of the ball. West Virginia also comes in with more impressive statistics.

However, I like the Sooners here. They have faced the 23rd-toughest schedule by my numbers, while West Virginia has taken on my No. 110-ranked slate. Oklahoma comes in fresh off a bye and while not by large margins, I do give the Sooners the edge on offense, defense and special teams -- not to mention home field. Finally, last year Oklahoma went into Morgantown and while they struggled early, they still led 45-27 before giving up a late touchdown; in Norman, this should be another comfortable win.

ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 34, West Virginia 23


Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 5 Baylor Bears (-17)
Texas Tech was only a 5-point underdog at home versus No. 4 TCU last week and lost when TCU got a tipped-pass touchdown on fourth down. It may seem strange that the very next week the Red Raiders are at a neutral site and now are 17-point 'dogs versus the No. 5 team in the country.

Baylor has the best offense in the nation, averaging 767 yards per game and 64 points per game but TCU has a good offense as well. The difference is TCU had a defense that was missing eight of my projected starters from my magazine in last week's game. Baylor comes in with a defense that is allowing just 318 yards per game and the Bears are holding their opponents to 195 yards below their season averages. Texas Tech's defense allows 565 yards per game and allows opponents 45 yards more than their season averages.

ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 55, Texas Tech 34


No. 11 Florida State Seminoles (-19) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest is an improved team this year but is still young and has three freshmen starters on the offensive line. That unit has already allowed 15 sacks, including six to Indiana last week. Last year Florida State's defense played lethargically all season, allowing 397 yards per game and only holding a foe to under 313 yards three times. Their best performance came versus Wake, when they gave up just 126 total yards in a 43-3 home win.

Florida State had a bye last week and despite being 3-0 isn't even in the top 10. Last year the Seminoles allowed their opponents six yards more per game than their opponents averaged. This year they are holding foes to 198 yards below their season average and are playing with a lot more fire. Wake trailed Indiana last week 31-10 in the fourth quarter before a couple of late scores. Florida State has won the last three meetings between these two by a total score of 154-6! After scoring just one offensive TD at Boston College, their offense has a week off to work out the kinks. Florida State rolls to an easy road win here.

ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 38, Wake Forest 3


Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at No. 29 Boise State Broncos (-24.5)
Last week I had Wisconsin in its 28-0 shutout win over Hawaii, and the game was even worse than the final for the Rainbow Warriors as they only had 11 first downs to Wisconsin's 31. They flew back home and now pack up and fly to play Boise in altitude (were in Columbus two weeks prior to Wisconsin). This game is at night, so while the high is 72 degrees, it should drop into the mid 50's by halftime.

As I expected, Boise State went with true frosh QB Brett Rypien and he has been an upgrade, completing 73 percent with a 3-0 TD-to-INT ratio. Hawaii has taken on two of my top-10 rated defenses this year and been shutout by both Ohio State (No. 3) and Wisconsin (No. 8); here the Rainbow Warriors face my No. 6-rated defense. Hawaii's offense is averaging 125 yards less than their opponents are allowing on average and now are a travel-weary team playing on the blue turf. This smells like a blowout.

ATS pick: Boise State
Score: Boise State 38, Hawaii 3


Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 7 UCLA Bruins (-13.5)
I won going with UCLA last week over Arizona and with USC against Arizona State. Last week's results did cost us some line value here as UCLA was just a 5-point favorite in the summer and now has lost DE Eddie Vanderdoes, LB Myles Jack and CB Fabian Moreau, who are all out for the year.

I do think UCLA is a complete team and QB Josh Rosen bounced back from two poor performances and hit 19-of-28 passes for 284 yards last week. Arizona State has played below my expectations all three weeks; the Sun Devils lost to Texas A&M by 21, then struggled versus both Cal Poly and New Mexico. They trailed USC 35-0 at the half last week. My computer is calling for a three-touchdown margin for the Bruins and I agree.

ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 34, Arizona State 13


No. 21 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies (-7)
I freely admit that I was one of the many, including the SEC media, to peg Mississippi State for seventh place in the SEC West. The Bulldogs have impressed me so far this season. While the LSU game looked like it would be a blowout loss, they rallied back and missed a FG at the end to lose by just two. They then rolled over Auburn on the road last week 17-9 and now travel to another tough site.

Texas A&M looked great against Arizona State in the opener, getting two late touchdowns to turn a 7-point game into a 21-point rout. The Aggies did what they had to versus both Ball State and Nevada. Last week they trailed Arkansas 21-13 late in the fourth, but rallied for the tying touchdown and two-point conversion and won in OT.

Last year, Mississippi State dominated the game, leading 48-17 before allowing a couple of late garbage touchdowns. Dak Prescott is completing 67 percent of his passes with a 7-0 TD-to-INT ratio and A&M is just 1-8 ATS as a favorite versus SEC foes the last three seasons. Mississippi State is 9-2 ATS as an SEC dog.

ATS pick: Mississippi State
Score: Texas A&M, 30 Mississippi State 27


Eastern Michigan Eagles at No. 9 LSU Tigers (-44.5)
Here's a stat for you: If you bet against every team in the AP top 12 on a weekly basis if they weren't taking on a top-20 foe, you would right now be 28-10 ATS on the year! The last two weeks you would be 15-3 ATS, as Vegas keeps putting a premium number on these top 12 teams, which are public plays.

This week it is Leonard Fournette against the worst rush defense in the FBS as Eastern Michigan is allowing 373 yards per game and 6.7 yards per carry! That is a huge mismatch but Eastern has been competitive this season, leading its first three games at the half and last week only trailing Army by six in the fourth quarter. The Eagles have a decent front seven, led by DE Pat O' Conner and LB Anthony Zappone. LSU has South Carolina on deck and won't risk getting Fournette injured by playing him in the second half. The last four years, Les Miles is 1-5 ATS when the spread is 31 or more versus a nonconference foe, if LSU is off a win with an SEC game on deck.

ATS pick: Eastern Michigan
Score: LSU 48, Eastern Michigan 16


No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide at No 8 Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5)
Alabama is an underdog for the first time in the regular season since 2008 when they traveled Between The Hedges to Georgia. The Crimson Tide led that game 31-0 at the half. They were an underdog in 2009, but that was the SEC title game. Georgia has lost seven times the last two years outright as a favorite.

Alabama has taken on my No. 5-toughest schedule (faced Wisconsin and Ole Miss) while Georgia has only taken on my No. 98-rated schedule. Despite that fact, the statistics are close with Georgia at plus-218 yards per game and Alabama right there at plus-193. The Crimson Tide's defense is holding opponents to 239 yards below their season average and the Bulldogs' defense is holding foes to 85 yards below their average. The clincher is this is a must-win for Bama to stay alive in the national title chase while Georgia can lose this game, still win out and get there.

ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 27, Georgia 24

 

[NYGiants25]

Opening Kick: Early betting notes for college football Week 5
Will Harris

Duke, East Carolina, Akron and Utah were the only underdog winners in Week 4, with the Utes headlining a big day for the road teams on a loaded Pac-12 slate. Now, in the fourth week of the college football season, the SEC takes center stage with three matchups of ranked teams. Inside, we talk broken SEC offenses, the most banged-up teams in the Big Ten and concerns for our preseason national title pick. Plus we'll look at the two big movers in the futures market and see what the early numbers have to say about the coming week.

Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so its numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.

Adjustments and takeaways, Week 4
SEC Offenses
It's a rough year for SEC offenses. Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Missouri and Kentucky are the five teams that returned a quarterback who took more than half his team's 2014 snaps. Three of the quarterbacks have a new playcaller, and exactly zero are pleased with the 2015 offensive output. Tennessee's passing game has stalled, Arkansas' big uglies aren't as dominant, State can't run, Kentucky can't protect, and in Columbia West, one of those five quarterbacks (Maty Mauk) is already losing time.

Of the remaining nine, the teams that are the happiest with their offensive improvement are the two who returned part-time starters (Texas A&M and Vanderbilt) and the two piloted by transfers who stepped onto teams with lots of returning talent around them (Georgia and Ole Miss).

Steve Spurrier has been through three quarterbacks already, but he's finally found his man in Lorenzo Nunez. Spurrier might be able to manufacture some wins around the big-play abilities of Nunez and wideout Pharoh Cooper, and especially the mobility that allows Nunez to move the chains with third-down scrambles, a key component of the offense's success during Connor Shaw's time.

Unhappiest of all are the offenses sporting a first-year starter who was the team's primary backup last season. LSU's outlook with Brandon Harris is the rosiest because little is asked of a quarterback leading an offense that contains Leonard Fournette. The passing game remains unproven, but at least the whole offense isn't broken.

"Broken" has been a reasonable description of what's been happening at Auburn for a few weeks now, but Alabama merits that label as well. Every position group plus the staff has so far failed to meet even modest expectations. The main culprit is the quarterback position, where a guy who's not the answer remains on the field because there's no solution on the bench. Alabama still has a shot at exceeding our preseason expectations of 10-3 or so, but the staff's overall offensive operation is not as strong this season, and it's tough having quarterback issues on an offense with just three guys who have started more than three games. Nick Saban will quiet the "Is the Alabama dynasty over?" talk by returning to contention in future seasons, but the 2015 team is not done losing games.

Michigan State disappointing
Michigan State QB Connor Cook has nine touchdowns and just one interception this season, but he hasn't progressed from good to great. Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
We had Michigan State pegged as the nation's No. 1 team in the preseason, but just as that sentiment gains popularity, we're easing off this bandwagon, and have been since the win over Oregon. The concerns are as follows: a leaky secondary, poor special teams, disappointment that Connor Cook hasn't gone from good to great, a growing injury list and, most importantly, a running game that hasn't been nearly as effective, dominant or consistent as its personnel suggests that it should be. Like Ohio State, this team has the coaching to improve to championship levels by the end of the season, so we're not giving up all hope just yet, but Sparty is no longer in our top five, and right now we're liking our Oklahoma futures a lot better than the green-and-white ones.

Ours aren't the only expectations the Spartans haven't lived up to: They're now one of three Power Five teams that are 0-4 against the spread (ATS), along with Arizona State, Auburn and Missouri. Michigan State has the fewest warts of that group, but typically starting 0-4 ATS means that all is not well, and no national champion of the BCS/Playoff era ever started worse than 2-2 ATS.

Duke defense
The Duke defense is certainly climbing the charts. Georgia Tech's principal offensive question mark entering the season was whether it could adequately replace nearly all the skill players around quarterback Justin Thomas, and that issue has not yet been solved. Nor is the offensive line playing that well. Duke still hasn't seen an offense that's remotely clicking, but this defense has overcome some key personnel losses better than we anticipated. Jeremy Cash looks like a repeat All-American, and Dwayne Norman, who was at times a liability at safety last season, has been a playmaker at linebacker. Size along the line is the biggest issue, and the Devils' toughest matchups will be against teams that can run downhill behind big offensive fronts. Next up is a scuffling Boston College offense that was already rebuilding its offensive line and has now lost its top quarterback and running back.


Games of interest, Week 2
Arkansas (+6) versus Tennessee
Can either team get off the mat and summon the will to win? That's the No. 1 question we'll be trying hard to answer all week, as both teams find themselves in obvious fade spots. Ideally you'd like a better hammer when it's time to fade a dejected squad unlikely to play its best, but sometimes fate just deals you another downtrodden team. Normally in that scenario the best move is to pass, but we've got a hypothesis that one of these teams is in a lot worse shape than the other. Test results later in the week if it pans out.

Minnesota (+5) at Northwestern
With two struggling offenses and defenses this salty, it's awfully hard to lay any points, a sentiment shared by early bettors who have driven this number down a bit. But in addition to the pedestrian attacks, stingy stop units, and a propensity to play (and win) close games, these two currently share another quality: poor health. Minnesota's offensive line has endured constant shuffling due to injuries all season, and the Gophers are now down some key defensive players as well. Northwestern is banged up all around after seeing seven players leave last week's game with injury. We'll be tracking these teams' health as the week wears on.

UNLV (+7) versus Nevada
We're not ready to make any proclamations about first-year UNLV coach Tony Sanchez's ceiling yet, but the early returns are very promising. And we've been consistently pessimistic about Brian Polian's chances to maintain Nevada's place in the Mountain West pecking order while trying to replace school legend Chris Ault. So far, we like Sanchez's approach to the rivalry, and we'll be watching to see how he handles his team this week, as well as how much cross-country travel to play a flu-infested Buffalo team taxes the Pack's preparations. The general thought is that UNLV is about to gain control of this series for a while.


Movers and shakers
The biggest reaction to Week 4 in the national title futures market was the Westgate dropping Michigan from 500:1 to 60:1. That's a huge move, but there's no denying that the Wolverines look good, have a championship-caliber coaching staff and an easier road than expected in a Big Ten East whose supposed top three teams have all looked weaker than projected.

Utah's dismemberment of Oregon dropped the Utes' odds from 200:1 to 40:1. Georgia and LSU, formerly 12:1, joined Ole Miss at 10:1. Notre Dame believers drove the Irish from 25:1 to 15:1, perhaps pursuing some last-chance action before a win over Clemson wrecks the price for good.

UCLA won big, yet saw its price lengthen from 20:1 to 30:1. We'd call backing the Bruins to win it all a bad bet at any halfway reasonable price. Our pick for best value is still Oklahoma, down to 25:1 from 30:1 last week.

Vanderbilt won its first 12 games against Middle Tennessee State, holding the Blue Raiders to an average of 2.75 points per game in a dozen meetings from 1915-56. Middle has won all three in the modern era, scoring an average of 25 points in 2001, 2002 and 2005. Vanderbilt was favored in all three of those games but is a one-point dog this time after being bet down from an opener of plus-3.5.

Other early underdog moves include Purdue (+25.5 to +22) at Michigan State, North Carolina (+10 to +7.5) at Georgia Tech, Ball State (+9.5 to +6.5) versus Toledo, Tulsa (+10 to +6.5) versus Houston, Texas (+19.5 to +15.5) at TCU, and Colorado (+12.5 to +9) versus Oregon.


Chalk bits
Under Willie Taggart, South Florida has been hapless on offense and occasionally inspired on defense. No wonder that just five of the 24 games Taggart has coached against FBS teams have gone over the total. Something has to give against Memphis, which enters having scored 55 points in its bowl game to close last season and averaging just under that in four games so far in 2015. Seven straight Tigers games have gone over the total.

Gary Pinkel has won exactly two-thirds of his career games following a loss, and he's covered at just over a 60 percent clip in those spots since arriving at Missouri.

Losing 34-14 at Kansas was the low point of 2014 for Iowa State, and the Jayhawks were so starved for success that their fans stormed the goalposts afterward, celebrating just the school's fourth win over a Power Five opponent since current Cyclones offensive coordinator Mark Mangino was head coach in Lawrence. But even with this track record and an improved Iowa State squad no doubt seeking redemption, this price was a little higher than we expected. Iowa State has been favored by less than four the past three seasons. The two years prior, the Jayhawks lost but covered double-digit spreads. Kansas is sporting one of the thinnest Big 12 rosters we've ever seen, but the Jayhawks have been competing hard and Iowa State is a not a team we'd ask to lay a bunch of points.

California was a rare road favorite in Seattle last week but survived Washington despite again struggling in the four-minute offense, which continues to be the main weakness of the Bear Raid with injured running back Daniel Lasco on the shelf. Jeff Tedford's first season at Cal was 2002, which was Mike Price's last year at Washington State. The next decade saw Tedford build some of the most talented teams in school history, while the Cougars fielded some historically bad ones under Bill Doba and Paul Wulff. Yet Cal only laid Washington State this many points once in that era, and the Coogs covered four of five when getting double digits. This is another number that was higher than we expected and awfully inflated by historical standards.

Alabama being installed as an underdog for the first time in 73 games is generating some press, but what about the Tide's overall track record in its most difficult games? Since that last game as an underdog -- a 32-13 whipping of Florida in the 2009 SEC championship game -- Bama and Saban have covered just a third of their games as single-digit favorites.

 

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Best Week 5 college football bets
Chris Fallica & Steve Coughlin

After an impressive 2014 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt, and Chris Fallica, of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay, are back. Every Wednesday during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games.

2015 season record:
Fallica: 20-5 ATS (last week: 6-1)
Coughlin: 10-9-1 ATS (last week: 3-2)

2014 season record:
Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)

Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are in bold. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


Alabama Crimson Tide (+2.5) at Georgia Bulldogs
Fallica: Sure Alabama would love to be undefeated right now, but what a great spot for the Crimson Tide. An underdog for the first time since 2009, the dynasty has been deemed over. Are you kidding me? The Crimson Tide lose a home game to a team that beat them last year, commit five turnovers in the process and that's it, run over? As my friend Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend."

Yes Alabama has a minus-13 turnover margin in its past six losses, so it must hang onto the ball. But I'd be hesitant on anointing Greyson Lambert and Georgia just because they ripped apart an awful South Carolina defense. It should be a much more straightforward matchup for the Alabama defense. This feels to me like one of those "been there, done that" types of games.

The past seven times Georgia has taken on a top 15 Power 5/BCS automatic qualifier opponent as the higher-ranked team, it has lost six of them. The past nine times Alabama has entered the game as the lower-ranked team, it has won seven of them. As the saying goes, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

ATS pick: Alabama 21, Georgia 17

Coughlin: This feels like an old-school SEC matchup to me. If Nick Saban were to pick a ranked team in the SEC conference to try and shut down, you would have to think Georgia would top the list. Mark Richt doesn't run the spread; offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer seems like a vanilla playcaller to me; and Lambert isn't much of a mobile threat. Now I know everyone thinks Dawgs running back Nick Chubb should be getting all the love that Leonard Fournette is getting, but how about Alabama back Derrick Henry? No one mentions him anymore when top college football players are discussed. I know people are down on Alabama after the Crimson Tide got torched vs. Ole Miss. I really like this matchup for the Tide, and I might want to throw a little on the under, too.

ATS pick: Alabama 21, Georgia 17


Clemson Tigers (-1) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Fallica: I've gone back and forth on this one, and I can't help but be influenced by the number. It's a horrible number because it's begging you to take Clemson at home to essentially win the game against an injury-ridden Notre Dame team. I'm not going to take the bait.

I know the Clemson defense over the past nine games versus Power 5 opponents has been outstanding. Clemson has allowed 11 touchdowns (four fewer than anyone else in span), while forcing 17 turnovers and 58 drives without a first down in 127 opponent drives. No team has scored more than two TDs, and only two drives have gone for 80 yards. And I know that points and yards will not be easy to come by for the Irish. But I like the matchup for the Notre Dame front seven against the Clemson offensive line better than I do the Clemson front seven against the Notre Dame O-line. It's tough to go against the best player on the field (quarterback Deshaun Watson) at home in basically a "win the game" spot.

It does worry me quite a bit that Clemson is 1-7 in its past eight regular-season games against ranked teams, and doesn't this feel a little bit like the Notre Dame-Oklahoma game in 2012? Or the Notre Dame-Florida State game last year in which people were anticipating the Irish being exposed? This could be a spot too where the loss of receiver Mike Williams really affects the Tigers offense.

ATS pick: Notre Dame 24, Clemson 20

Coughlin: Well, well, well -- what do we have here? This game looks just like the one in 2012 in which the undefeated Fighting Irish went to Norman, Oklahoma, to face the Sooners. I remember being there for that game and the thoughts going in were that the Irish didn't have enough offense to hang with OU's. The boys from South Bend went in, shut down the Sooners offense and won convincingly 30-13. Now, I know the Irish were a 12-point underdog in that game, but I can't help but think of who their opponent is this Saturday night. Dabo Swinney is already trying to loosen up his team, as he's cracked some jokes at his news conference, but I'm not buying it. The Fighting Irish take this one.

ATS pick: Notre Dame 29, Clemson 23


Ohio State Buckeyes (-21) at Indiana Hoosiers
Fallica: Get any thoughts of the outright upset out of your head. Indiana is 1-55 all-time against top-5 opponents with the past seven losses coming by an average of 33.1 PPG -- all by at least 21 points. This will be a great chance for Ohio State to get right on offense as the Hoosiers are 110th in the FBS in defensive efficiency -- and that number includes games against an FCS offense, FIU (94th in offensive efficiency) and Wake Forest (106th in offensive efficiency). Despite being 4-0, Indiana is 56th of 65 Power 5 teams in FPI. I'd be surprised if this one is close, given Ohio State hasn't clicked since Week 1 and this is as close to a "wake-up" game the Buckeyes will have until Nov. 21.

ATS pick: Ohio State 45, Indiana 17

Coughlin: I guess Dan Dakich and the Hoosier Nation didn't get their wish, as they hoped and begged for The Bear and College GameDay to come to Bloomington, Indiana, for this game. I don't feel bad for the Hoosier fan base -- you simply don't deserve it. What does come to town is the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes. It seems people want to bash the team from Columbus, Ohio, for the start of the season, but I think they are making too big a deal about one game, in which the Buckeyes hosted Northern Illinois in the middle of what looked like a tsunami. Urban Meyer came out last week and backed his decision in starting Cardale Jones, which led the Buckeyes to a convincing win over the team that goes by the motto "Row The Boat." The past two MAC teams the Buckeyes have played have better defenses than the Hoosiers. Let's say Meyer pulls some defensive starters and Indiana gets some scores late to get this over the number.

Pick: Ohio State 52, Indiana 31 (over the total 61)


Ole Miss Rebels (-7.5) at Florida Gators
Fallica: Florida is ranked mainly because of Tennessee's mismanagement of the final 10 minutes last week. This game could feature one of the biggest unit mismatches of the week: the Ole Miss defensive line vs. the Florida offensive line. In a game in which both defenses are above average, I trust the Ole Miss offense much more. Despite playing New Mexico State (127th in defensive efficiency), East Carolina (106th in defensive efficiency), Kentucky (83rd in defensive efficiency) and Tennessee (44th in defensive efficiency), the Gators are just 51st in offensive efficiency. The Rebels got their wake-up call last week in an obvious letdown situation and, with two nonconference games the next two weeks, will be fully focused on Florida.

ATS pick: Ole Miss 30, Florida 14

Coughlin: At first glance, I wondered why Florida is only getting seven points here. The Gators just had what might be their most emotional win in a couple of years last week, coming back to beat Tennessee 28-27. My next thought was how the hell are the Gators going to block Robert Nkemdiche and the Land Shark defense. I'm sorry, I just don't see it. I know the Rebels were pretty lethargic in their 27-16 win over Vanderbilt last week after an enormous win in Tuscaloosa, Alabama; that, combined with the way Florida won last week, is plenty of substance for Hugh Freeze to get his team's attention. This game will be all about the defenses, and I think the pressure might be a little too much for Gators quarterback Will Grier. I am a huge fan of Grier, but I see him turning the ball over a couple of times.

ATS pick: Ole Miss 23, Florida 10


Central Michigan Chippewas (+2.5) vs Northern Illinois Huskies
Fallica: Everybody knows Northern Illinois, and that's creating value here. People see two close losses to Ohio State and Boston College in the past two weeks and now think they will handle a MAC team as it's a drop in competition. Be careful. Those had to be physically draining games for the Huskies against two really good defenses. The Chippewas were in a one-score game in East Lansing against Michigan State last week, lost an overtime game at Syracuse two weeks ago and led Oklahoma State in the second half in the season opener. So they too have stood toe to toe with the big boys. Central Michigan blew out the Huskies last year, rolling up 552 yards and a 211-yard advantage in a 34-17 win. Quarterback Cooper Rush is back and again will put up big numbers in the small home upset.

ATS pick: Central Michigan 38, Northern Illinois 34


Old Dominion Monarchs (+19.5) at Marshall Thundering Herd
Fallica: Marshall has had trouble scoring points this season, as quarterback Michael Birdsong is hurt and freshman Chase Litton has struggled (14-36, 2 TD, 2 INT last week vs. Kent State). Now running back Devon Johnson, who ran for nearly 1,800 yards last season, is nursing a back injury. Admittedly, Old Dominion has been bad this year, as the Monarchs are still trying to replace record-setting quarterback Taylor Heinicke. But the Monarchs are a bigger underdog here than they were vs. NC State. Seems its worth a stab.

ATS pick: Marshall 38, Old Dominion 24


Buffalo Bulls (+9) vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Fallica: The Football Power Index has Bowling Green as roughly a field goal favorite in this one. That caught my eye, as Bowling Green is the more commonly known side for its big win vs Maryland and opening-week game against Tennessee. But the Buffalo defense has been sneaky good this year (ranks higher in defensive efficiency than Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Miami). The two teams played a back-and-forth one-point game last year at Bowling Green. The Bulls have their entire QB-RB-WR group back from last year and should be able to again match the Falcons point for point, because while BG is seventh in the FBS in offensive efficiency, it is 114th in defensive efficiency.

ATS pick: Buffalo 37, Bowling Green 35


Illinois Fighting Illini (+7) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Fallica: The Football Power Index has this game as a toss-up, so there is a big perceived value on the home underdog. My guess is there will be an overreaction that Illinois nearly lost at home last week to Middle Tennessee, but the Blue Raiders are 55th in FPI, so it's not like they are a bad team. After a disastrous end to 2014 and a tumultuous offseason, the Illini have shown life under Bill Cubit -- and Wes Lunt should put up points against the nation's 73rd-rated defense (Southern Miss threw for 447 last week on nearly 10 yards per attempt).

ATS pick: Illinois 34, Nebraska 30


East Carolina Pirates (-5) at SMU Mustangs
Coughlin: I could be totally wrong here, but when I see ECU and SMU, I just think offensive fireworks. Then I go look up the stats of each of these teams and I see the Mustangs and Pirates combine to give up 74 points a game. Plus, SMU is coming off a 45-point performance against James Madison last week that gave the Mustangs 134 points on the year, which surpasses last season's total output of 133. And it's their first conference game, so the intensity will be real when this game kicks off at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. Expect points, take the over.

Pick: SMU 45, East Carolina 35 (over the total 67)

 

[NYGiants25]

waiting on Harris to post his insider article ... will post when available for whoever cares ... :shake:

 

[Grovehard]

waiting on Harris to post his insider article ... will post when available for whoever cares ... :shake:

Thanks for the info man.

 

[NYGiants25]

Thanks for the info man.

No problem ... Hotty Toddy !

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 5 CFB totals bets
Using an advanced metrics-driven computer algorithm as a foundation, Warren Sharp incorporates his in-depth research into game theory, efficiency, play-calling success rates and scheme utilization to uncover inefficiencies in the NFL and college football totals market.

Every Thursday during the football season for ESPN Chalk, he will share his top totals bets for the upcoming college football weekend. On Fridays, he'll hit on the NFL.

Here are his top four Week 5 college football totals bets:

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Boise State Broncos
Total: 53.5
This game isn't as much about what these two teams have done as it is about their potential. Hawaii was shut out by Ohio State and Wisconsin, two of the better defenses in the nation, but the Rainbow Warriors played significantly better offensively against Colorado and UC Davis. Boise State's true freshman quarterback, Brett Rypien, will make his first home start with a lot of promise after throwing for 321 yards and three touchdowns at Virginia last week. After going 3-of-14 on third down last week, the Boise State offense should find much smoother sailing against a Hawaii defense that is in the bottom 20 percent at forcing opponents into third down and ranks 92nd in third-down defense.

ESPN Chalk pick: Over 53.5


Miami (Ohio) RedHawks at Kent State Golden Flashes
Total: 49
Each of these teams has been pushed hard with early schedules against strong opposition. Miami is coming off of games against two of the most pass-happy teams in the nation (Western Kentucky and Cincinnati) after being crushed by Wisconsin 58-0 in Week 2. Kent State started the season against a fast and pass-heavy Illinois team, played a low-scoring game vs. Minnesota (10-7 final score) and led Marshall 13-7 at halftime last week before a kickoff return and a 21-point overtime sent the game over the total. Both teams boast inefficient offenses that haven't been explosive; they get forced into third downs often, where they are not very successful.

ESPN Chalk pick: Under (split between 24.5 first half and 49 full game)
Editors's note: This game total is now down to 45.


UTSA Roadrunners at UTEP Miners
Total: 58
After being throttled by the likes of Texas Tech and Arkansas, the Miners played New Mexico State to a 25-point first half. In the second half and overtime, 72 points were scored (including multiple return TDs). Texas San Antonio is one of the least-explosive offenses in football, so the 31-point outburst against Colorado State isn't likely to be repeated. This will be UTSA's first game where it plays an opponent that is statistically weaker and extremely slow-paced. Both defenses should benefit from the downgrade in offensive ability of their opponent, keeping them fresher longer in the game.

ESPN Chalk pick: Under (split between 29.5 first half and 58 game)


Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Total: 88.5
Baylor is bringing the nation's most-explosive offense against a Texas Tech defense that has leaked badly despite playing only one explosive-play offense this season (TCU). Baylor should see plenty of opportunities to score due to the up-tempo, pass-heavy nature of the Red Raiders' offense. In a rematch of a game they led 45-27 through three quarters last season -- only to let up in the fourth quarter and hold on for a 48-46 win -- I don't expect the Bears to take their foot off the gas early in this one. Note: While this total is historically high, Baylor's team total the past two meetings has been at or above the likely number (yet to be posted) this week.

ESPN Chalk pick: Baylor team total over 52.5 (line estimated off game total)

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 5 college football ATS bets
Will Harris

Upsets were in short supply in Week 4, but Duke and East Carolina beat Techs for a second straight year, Utah upended Mark Helfrich and Oregon, and Mississippi State prolonged Auburn's misery. Plus Army covered the spread for the first time in 20 road games, and UNLV scored 80 points. A 3-5 week has us at 12-15 on the season.

This week we'll dig into a Friday game, Mark Richt's big moment, a cultural referendum in the SEC and a big underdog that could be low on gas at the wrong time.

Note: All lines from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Oct. 1.


Connecticut Huskies (+17.5) at BYU Cougars (Friday)
We really like the way the coaches, players and the whole Connecticut organization has handled a difficult preparation week ahead of the longest road trip in school history. The Huskies have a tough defense, especially up front. The offense has a little more punch than last year's thanks to three emerging playmakers: N.C. State transfer quarterback Bryant Shirreffs and running back Arkeel Newsome, both sophomores, and freshman wideout Tyraiq Beals. This is an improved team with a legit defense that is ready to play this week.

The BYU offense has been running on adrenaline since losing Taysom Hill in a wild opener at Nebraska that the Cougars won on a Hail Mary. BYU has also seen its top three running backs go down, along with half of the "Bash Brothers," a duo of defensive linemen-turned-blocking tight ends around whom the running game was to be built. BYU's ambitious September left the Cougars 2-2 and ended on a down note. This offense needs to regroup and rediscover its identity. The defense is having tackling issues at all levels. Health is poor. And the hope of major national prizes just got swept off the table with a humbling loss. It's hard to see how BYU is primed to score 18, let alone lay this kind of weight.

ATS pick: Connecticut
Score: BYU 20, Connecticut 14


Arkansas Razorbacks (+7) at Tennessee Volunteers
A lot is being made of the similarities in this matchup. Both teams entered the season with ample preseason hype, the most established quarterbacks in the league save Dak Prescott, plus new playcallers who each coordinated Big Ten offenses before underwhelming as head coach of Central Michigan. Both teams are now tasked with bouncing back from difficult losses.

The differences matter. Tennessee's loss was far more painful, mainly in that it was somewhat program-defining. How can Butch Jones claim sufficient progress along the path to SEC East supremacy when in its 29th game his program still cannot beat Florida, a team just four games into its own rebuilding effort?

Arkansas' demise was more gradual. The team was underprepared against Toledo but was out of the tank and ready to go against Texas Tech, a loss that made it accept what Tennessee is just now having to swallow -- that it just wasn't good enough. Bret Bielema has already been through the ordeal of having preseason hopes crash and the challenge of addressing negativity that meant no one was having fun anymore. For Tennessee, the "Not Fun Anymore" time is just starting.

The main advantage for Arkansas, though, is that the Razorbacks' program culture is better equipped to withstand and bounce back from disappointment like this. There are a lot of bells and whistles to what Butch Jones has built at Tennessee. Some are nicely done homages to Tennessee history (which Jones has certainly embraced) and some feel a little contrived. Some were very successful (the Vol for Life program), some have yet to achieve total buy-in ("63 effort") and some are cultural borrows from a time and place Tennessee fans are uninterested in imitating ("Team 119").

Jones' approach through it all can come across as dogmatic, even a little robotic. The players, too, flash little personality in media sessions, mostly parroting their coach's orthodoxy. The underlying program values are frequently expressed by rote, as manifesto or mission statement. Bielema's freewheeling, keep-it-real manner is better medicine. Both teams entered the season with good player leadership and both claim to have had good weeks of practice ahead of this game. That rings more true at Arkansas, where the message is more about belief in each other than a canon of maxims.

The Hogs are a tough team for which to prep, and Tennessee hasn't played them yet. Arkansas will bring the physicality while presenting lots of difficult formations and personnel groupings. That includes a lot of different deployments of the tight end, something Tennessee did not handle well at Florida. It's hard to hold up defensively against the Razorbacks' constant downhill bruising if your hearts are not fully in it. If Arkansas shows up angry and Tennessee is still on the mat, there's no limit to how ugly this could get.

ATS pick: Arkansas
Score: Arkansas 42, Tennessee 20


Georgia Bulldogs (-2) versus Alabama Crimson Tide
Adaptability is a trait of all coaches with longevity, and during the past few years Mark Richt has proved he's still willing to search for new answers. Richt brought home SEC titles in 2002 and 2005, and East Division crowns in 2011 and 2012. It was the narrow 2012 SEC championship game loss to Alabama that prevented Richt from realizing his best chance at a national championship, a presumed beating of disadvantaged Notre Dame in Miami. Some of Richt's searching the past two years has led him in an Alabama-flavored direction. Second-year defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt is a Nick Saban disciple, and new strength and conditioning coach Mark Hocke was Scott Cochran's No. 2 in the Alabama weight room the past six years.

Alabama may still carry the league's standard and represent the "hump" to be cleared for programs hoping to earn SEC titles and such, but the 2015 edition is ripe for the picking. Bama has no SEC-caliber answer at quarterback and is not getting the performance it got last year from playcaller Lane Kiffin. This offense has regressed from the one that put 500 yards on Ole Miss, and Alabama will need to win four-quarter defensive struggles with good teams this year, as it will not be able to score enough to gain control.

The stakes are much higher for Georgia than Alabama. Georgia gets a crippled Alabama between the hedges as a favorite. Its coach has spent two years remaking the program in preparation for this exact moment, and its grad transfer quarterback is working out and Alabama's isn't. Georgia has looked every ounce the contender so far, and what's rolling into Athens is not Nick Saban's machine at its finest, at the peak of its powers. If Mark Richt can't win this one, it will be very difficult for anyone in the organization or fan base to keep the faith, to enter the next "big game" actually expecting to win instead of just hoping to win. Georgia has every advantage Saturday. There are no more excuses. No more getting outplayed. No more "they were just better than us today." Because this time they're not. Losing this one is called choking. If Mark Richt can't win this game, there may not be much more Mark Richt. We'll say he gets it done and the name on everyone's lips afterward is Jeremy Pruitt, whose departure from Tuscaloosa will, at long last, be linked to the decline of the Alabama secondary.

ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 20, Alabama 6


UNLV Rebels (+6.5) at Nevada Wolf Pack
We love what Tony Sanchez is doing at UNLV so far and the way the Rebels are running the ball. We're not so bullish on Brian Polian's Nevada program. Over time, Polian and his passive approach to this rivalry will not get the money as often as the fiery Sanchez. This week, the travel-weary Pack are coming off a pair of tough road dates at Texas A&M and Buffalo.

ATS pick: UNLV
Score: UNLV 31, Nevada 28


Iowa Hawkeyes (+6.5) at Wisconsin Badgers
Both sides have some injuries on defense, and there are a handful of key Iowa players whose status might not be known until close to game time. Still, we'll probably take points with what looks like the Big Ten West's most complete team. The Hawkeyes are not the most talented group Kirk Ferentz has fielded, but the revamped staff is showing better chemistry, the team is closer, no entire position groups are glaring weaknesses and the team is getting improved performance from two key spots -- playcaller and quarterback. Greg Davis is delivering this year, and the coaches' choice of C.J. Beathard over Jake Rudock has paid off big, as Beathard has become a primary team leader and leads the Big Ten in quarterback rating. Last year, Iowa gained 400 yards per game for the first time since 2005, and this offense can be even better.

So far, Wisconsin has replaced shelved tailback Corey Clement pretty well, using a combination of elusive junior Dare Ogunbowale and physical freshman Taiwan Deal. The offensive line, though, is not up to program standards in either talent or experience, and it was banged up in camp and the early part of the season. We see the Badgers as pretty good but not a Top 25 team and are generally looking to fade a regime that will not approach the success of the last one. We expect Paul Chryst to gradually disappoint and for the Badgers to lose ace defensive coordinator Dave Aranda within a couple of years. Division titles will be hard to come by.

ATS pick: Iowa
Score: Iowa 20, Wisconsin 17


Baylor Bears (-17) versus Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech left it all on the field last week in what was a deceptively physical game for a track meet. The Red Raiders are banged up and spent, and a Baylor team that's just hitting its stride is a tough assignment coming off last week's epic.

ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 52, Texas Tech 24


Oregon Ducks (-7.5) at Colorado Buffaloes
We went 6-9 ATS investing in Oregon's demise in 2014, and this year's Ducks have given those three units back in short order. The cat's now out of the bag on a crumbling regime, but we say keep sending it in until the oddsmakers prove they've fully adjusted to how bad this outfit really is.

ATS pick: Colorado
Score: Oregon 34, Colorado 31

 

[gps_3]

"This offense has regressed from the one that put 500 yards on Ole Miss"

Alabama may very well lose tomorrow, but that is the single dumbest statement I think I've ever read in a football game analysis. Not to mention that the rest of his reasons for UGA winning are that they are due. Seems incredibly lazy to me. But I'm drunk, so probably off base here