Duckie's ECM (Expected Conversion Model) Picks 2026

[DeadEyeDuckie]

Been tinkering with something specifically for betting o/u in F5

Paper Testing: 57-36 (61.2%) +17.40 units (March 29 to April 17th)

Ready to give it a try.

San Diego/Los Angeles Angels - Total Runs Over 4.5 (-170) - played at Bovada
Risk 1.70 to win 1.00



The ECM Philosophy: I don't predict the score, I predict the efficiency of the converson

 

[DeadEyeDuckie]

Going with

SF/WSH F5 Over 4 -145 (1.45/1.00)
BAL/CLE F5 OVER 3.5 -125 (1.25/1.00)
TB/PIT F5 Over 4 -145 (1.45/1.00)

Good luck everyone!

 

[DeadEyeDuckie]

Cin/Min Over 4.5
STL/Hou Over 4.5

 

[DeadEyeDuckie]

For Monday...

Det/Bos Over 4
Atl/Was Over 4.5
Lad/Col Under 6
Tor/LAA Over 4
Ath/Sea Under 4.5