Dr. Bob INGAME(holla ETG)
- Thread starter chopz33
- Start date
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
I'm not in here to speculate what his games are like a lot of you do. I could care less.
I'm here to tell you all exactly what they are so you can get to your local or offshores who are sleeping and do what you want to with them...
I'm here to tell you all exactly what they are so you can get to your local or offshores who are sleeping and do what you want to with them...
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Air Force
YourMomIsLovely
Pretty much a regular
Damn, I had taken Iowa +3.5 earlier in the week.
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
My local and I are on the phone right now...He's watching the moves, too...
ClevelandsBest
Pretty much a regular
I almost bought them early also but got 5 just a minute ago! :smiley_acbe:
ClevelandsBest
Pretty much a regular
Bc the Iowa line will not get any higher than 4 IMO. So why not take 5? Most home dogs drop come gametime
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
San Jose State, UTEP and Utah look to be opinions to me, judging how they bet them here...
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silverbull271
Guest
can we get someone to post his write ups?
S
silverbull271
Guest
piece of shit fucked me with ILL
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Love seeing bob on illinois... iowa is a for sure play for me now
S
silverbull271
Guest
ILL wins that game by a 10 point min
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
Patience, Grasshopper. Master Steve shall arrive...
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
Dr Bob
6 Best Bets and 3 Strong Opinions.
Rotation #144 Houston (-21) 4-Stars at -21 or less, 3-Stars from -21 1/2 to -24, 2-Stars up to -25.
Rotation #186 Oklahoma (-10 1/2) 4-Stars at -11 or less, 3-Stars from -11 1/2 to -13, 2- Stars at -13 1/2 or -14.
Rotation #184 Texas Tech (-8 1/2) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars at -10 1/2 or -11.
Rotation #130 Buffalo (-3) 3-Stars at -3 (-115 odds or better) or less, 2-Stars from -3 1/2 to -5 points.
Rotation #153 Illinois (-3 1/2) 2-Stars at -4 or less.
Rotation #165 Air Force (+3 1/2) 2-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #106 San Jose St (+18 1/2) Strong Opinion at +17 or more, 2- Star Best Bet at +20 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #140 Utah (-14) Strong Opinion at -14 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #194 UTEP (-3) Strong Opinion at -3 or less, 2-Stars at -1 or better.
4 Star Selection
****HOUSTON (-21.0) 47 Rice 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Don’t be fooled by Rice’s win at Southern Miss as a 20 ½ point dog. The Owls were fortunate to have Southern Miss quarterback Martevious Young get injured on the first series, which forced the Eagles to play with injured backup Stephen Reaves, who could barely throw the ball more than 10 yards and ended up tossing 4 interceptions. Rice was still out-gained 240 yards to 422 yards and the fact that they only won that game by 2 points despite being +5 in turnovers is a sign of just how bad the Owls are. For the season Rice has averaged a pathetic 4.1 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, and the Owls have given up 41 points per game on 6.5 yppl (against teams that would average only 5.2 yppl against an average defense). Houston’s very good offense (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) should score at will against the Owls regardless of which quarterback is on the field (Keenum and Joseph have split time but Joseph is questionable) and running back Anthony Alridge will run wild against a Rice defensive front that has surrendered 6.3 yards per rushing play the last 2 games against the two better than average running teams that they’ve faced (Texas and Southern Miss). Houston has a better than average defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team), so Rice isn’t likely to score many points with their pathetic attack unless they are blessed with 7 turnovers again this week (not likely). My math model projects a 587 yards to 268 yards edge for Houston in this game and the Cougars will be looking to take out their frustrations after losing their last two games to East Carolina and Alabama by a combined 8 points. Coach Art Briles is 6-1-1 ATS when facing a losing team after a loss in his 5 seasons at Houston, including a 24 point win at Tulane earlier this season (Rice is worse than Tulane and this game is at home). I’ll take Houston in a 4-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less, for 3-Stars from -21 ½ to -24 points and for 2-Stars at -24 ½ or -25 points.
4 Star Selection
****OKLAHOMA (-10.5) 44 Missouri 20
03:30 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Missouri certainly played well last week in whipping Nebraska, but the Tigers aren’t even close to being at the level of the Sooners. Missouri is a good offensive team, averaging 6.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, but that unit is not quite as good as an Oklahoma defense that rates at 1.2 yppl better than average (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team). The real mismatch in this game is when the Sooners have the ball. Oklahoma has averaged 7.4 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack) and the Sooners are equally good running and throwing the football (1.0 yprp better than average and 2.6 yppp better than average). Missouri’s defense played very well last week in holding Nebraska’s good offense to just 4.4 yppl, but the Tigers allowed an average of 485 total yards at 6.3 yppl to the two other better than average offensive teams that they had faced (Illinois and Mississippi) and they’ve allowed 5.4 yppl for the season to teams that would average only 5.2 yppl against an average defense. Missouri’s mediocre defense will not be able to stop the potent Oklahoma attack in Norman, where the Sooners are 15-3 ATS hosting conference foes when not favored by more than 21 points under coach Stoops. Oklahoma also applies to a solid 149-83-3 ATS indicator and my math model favors Oklahoma by 23 points. I’ll take Oklahoma in a 4- Star Best Bet at -11 points or less, for 3-Stars from -11 ½ to -13 points and for 2-Stars at -13 ½ and -14 points.
3 Star Selection
**BUFFALO (-3.5) 33 Toledo 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Buffalo is a much improved team in coach Turner Gill’s second season and the Bulls have played well against other below average teams, including a 31-10 home upset win last week over Ohio. Aside from that win, the Bulls beat up on Temple 42-7 and out-gained Baylor 5.0 yards per play to 4.7 yppl while losing only because of turnovers (-3 in TO margin). Overall, Buffalo rates at 0.7 yppl worse than average on offense (after taking out their garbage yardage against Penn State after falling behind 3-31) and just 0.2 yppl worse than average on defense (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). Buffalo’s offense rates and edge over a bad Toledo defense that’s surrendered 6.2 yppl in 6 games against teams that would average only 5.3 yppl against an average team. The Bulls also have a slight edge when Toledo as the ball as the Rockets are 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl). Toledo took the red shirt off of freshman D.J. Lenehan last week with the top 2 quarterbacks out with injury and Lenehan posted good numbers, going 19 of 23 passing for 226 yards (although with 2 picks). However, the 9.0 yards per pass play and the 6.5 yppl that Toledo produced with Lenehan at quarterback is not that impressive when you consider that their opponent, Liberty, would allow 9.8 yppp and 6.9 yppl on the road against an average Division 1A team – so the Rockets were 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively last week (a bit worse than they are for the season). Toledo barely beat a horrible Liberty team at home, having to come from behind to win 35-34, and that game sets up the Rockets in a negative 4-32 subset of a 46-100-2 ATS situation while Buffalo’s win last week sets the Bulls up in a 57-18-1 ATS home momentum situation that is 19-1 ATS if the opponent has a losing record. Toledo is also much better at home than they are on the road historically, as the Rockets are just 12-23-3 ATS on the road (0-2 ATS this season) and 22-11 ATS at home under coach Tom Amstutz. My math model favors Buffalo by 4 ½ points, so the line is more than fair, and I’ll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at - 5 or less and for 3-Stars at -3 (at -115 odds or less).
3 Star Selection
***TEXAS TECH (-8.5) 44 Texas A&M 26
12:30 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Texas Tech’s “Air Raid” offense matches up very well against a Texas A&M defense that has been horrible defending the pass this season, allowing 6.9 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppp against an average defensive team. The Aggies have faced 3 average or better passing teams and been torched through the air each time, giving up 7.8 yppp at home to an average Fresno State pass attack, allowing 9.4 yppp to Miami-Florida (Wright would average 7.8 yppp at home against an average defense) and giving up 8.8 yppp last week to an Oklahoma State aerial attack that would average 6.4 yppp on the road against an average team. Texas Tech throws the ball close to 60 times per game and averages 8.6 yppp (against teams that would allow 7.3 yppp), so the Red Raiders should have no trouble scoring in this game. Texas A&M will have a tough time keeping up with an attack that is barely better than average (5.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) going up against a decent Tech stop unit that is 0.1 yppl better than average. My math model takes match-ups into account and favors Texas Tech by 14 ½ points in this game. Aside from the line value the Red Raiders also tend to play better at home, where they are 20-9-1 ATS as a favorite of 27 points or less, including 17-5 ATS when not facing an unbeaten team. Tech also applies to a solid 145-69-7 ATS home momentum situation and I’ll take Texas Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at - 10 points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 ½ or -11 points.
2 Star Selection
**Illinois (-3.5) 26 IOWA 14
09:00 AM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
The only reason that Illinois is not favored by more than 3 ½ points in this game is the names on the jerseys. The line on this game would be about 7 points if Illinois didn’t have a history of losing and Iowa didn’t have a history of winning. The only thing that Iowa has going for them this season is their defense, which has allowed just 4.5 yards per play to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team. However, that defense has not been as good without leading tackler LB Mike Klinkenborg and starting S Devan Moylan the last two games, as the Hawkeyes allowed 5.7 yppl and 65 points in games against mediocre offensive teams Indiana and Penn State the last two weeks without Klinkenborg and Moylan, who are both listed as doubtful for this game. Illinois has been 0.5 yppl better than average offensively and their outstanding rushing attack (6.4 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) should have success against a Hawkeyes’ defensive front that allowed Penn State to run for 271 yards at 5.7 yprp last week. The real advantage for Illinois is when Iowa has the ball, as the Hawkeyes’ pedestrian attack (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) won’t be able to move the ball consistently against a solid Illini stop unit that has been 0.4 yppl better than average. Illinois also has an edge in special teams and my math model favors the Illini by 8 points in this game. The reason for the play is a very strong 65- 15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors Illinois and I’m not fearful of going against a free-falling Iowa program that has lost 8 consecutive Big 10 games. I’ll take Illinois in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**Air Force 28 COLORADO ST. (-3.5) 24
02:30 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Colorado State has lost 12 consecutive games and the Rams are favored over a 4-2 Air Force squad with wins over Utah and TCU. In reality Colorado State really isn’t that bad of a team, rating at just 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.1 yppl better than average on defense, but quarterback Caleb Haney continues to throw too many interceptions (8 in 5 games this season and 27 pick in 665 career passes (4.1%)). Air Force is 0.3 yppl better than average offensively and their option based attack should work well running against a soft Rams’ defensive front that has allowed 5.7 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average 5.0 yprp against an average defensive team). Air Force is also solid on defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl) so the Falcons have a slightly edge over Colorado State’s attack. My math model favors Air Force by 1 point and the Falcons apply to a 65-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I’ll take Air Force in a 3-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 ½ or +3 points.
Friday Strong Opinion
SAN JOSE ST. 26 Hawaii (-18.5) 39
05:00 PM Pacific, 12-Oct-07
San Jose State started the season with 4 road games in 4 weeks and the first 3 resulted in losses by a combined score of 17-116 at Arizona State, Kansas State, and Stanford. The Spartans have a bit of their swagger back after beating 3 bad teams the last 3 weeks and I think they’re capable of competing with Hawaii today on their home turf – where they are 8-1 straight up and 6-1 ATS since last season with their only loss being a 3 point decision as a 13 point dog to a Boise State team that ended last season unbeaten. San Jose State doesn’t have a rushing attack without star Yonus Davis (just 3.0 yards per rushing play) but veteran quarterback Adam Tafralis has adjusted to his new receiving corps and he’s now averaging 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback). Hawaii’s defense has been average so far, allowing 4.3 yppl to a schedule of bad offensive teams that would combine to average just 4.3 yppl against an average defense, but San Jose State will provide the first better than average pass offense and I think the Spartans will move the ball pretty well through the air in this game. Hawaii will, of course, move the ball through the air with Colt Brennan and company averaging 7.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl, but Brennan has missed time in recent weeks with a badly sprained ankle and he was pulled last week in a non-covering win over Utah State. Brennan will be throwing against a good secondary that makes up for their mediocre yards per pass play allowed average by taking a lot of risks that payoff in interceptions. All-American CB Dwight Lowry and fellow CB Chris Owens combined for 13 interceptions last season (Lowry had 9) and they already have 5 between them this season while the team has picked off 11 passes in 6 games. The line is about right in this game but the San Jose State has been much better at home and Hawaii applies to a negative 7-31-1 ATS subset of a 94-171-10 ATS road favorite letdown situation and I’ll consider San Jose State a Strong Opinion at +17 points or more and I’d make San Jose State a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UTAH (-14.0) 37 San Diego St. 18
12:00 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
San Diego State is coming an upset win as a double-digit dog at Colorado State while Utah is coming off an upset as a double-digit win at Louisville. San Diego State applies to a negative 52-117-2 ATS letdown situation while Utah’s upset sets them up in a 50-18 ATS home favorite momentum situation that just won last week with Auburn and Indiana. Utah quarterback Brian Johnson is starting to come around after missing a few weeks with a separated shoulder he suffered in week 1, as he averaged 9.6 yards per pass play in last week’s win (although Louisville would give up 8.2 yppp to an average quarterback). For the season Johnson has been 0.5 yppp worse than average but I suspect that mark will improve given that he was 1.5 yppp better than average as a starter in the 2005 season. Johnson’s numbers should be very good in this game against an Aztecs’ defense that has given up 8.0 yppp and 6.7 yards per play this season (to teams that would average 6.1 yppp and 5.5 yppp against an average defense). San Diego State has allowed an average of 38 points in their 4 games against Division 1A opposition and I see Utah getting around that number in this game. San Diego State has a good attack, averaging 6.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but the Aztecs have only averaged 19 points against 4 Division 1A teams. Utah has a solid defense that’s yielded just 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit, so they should slow down that San Diego State attack. My math model favors Utah by 16 ½ points and the situations strongly favor the Utes, but I’ll downgrade this a bit since Utah is just 4-12-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more under coach Kyle Whittingham. I’ll consider Utah a Strong Opinion at -14 or less.
Strong Opinion
TEXAS EL PASO (-3.0) 37 East Carolina 29
06:05 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
East Carolina turned a +5 in turnover margin into a 52-38 win over Central Florida last week, but that victory sets up the Pirates in a negative 51-121-2 ATS road letdown situation this week. UTEP is coming off an upset win over Tulsa and the Miners have yet to lose to the pointspread this season. The Miners are good offensively (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and should score plenty of points against a banged up ECU defense that’s been 0.3 yppl worse than average so far this season and may be without two of their top defenders with linebackers Quentin Cotton and Pierre Bell both questionable with shoulder injuries. Quarterback Robert Kass finally took over the starting quarterback job for the Pirates last week after starting the season by losing that spot due to off the field problems. Kass played well in his starting debut last week and I rate the Pirates as better than average with Kass at the controls instead of being 0.3 yppl worse than average as their season stats suggest. UTEP struggles defensively (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team) and my math model only favors the Miners by 1 point after adjusting ECU’s offense with Kass as the starting quarterback. The situation is favorable but it’s not good enough to give up much line value so I’ll consider UTEP a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less and I’d take UTEP in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
6 Best Bets and 3 Strong Opinions.
Rotation #144 Houston (-21) 4-Stars at -21 or less, 3-Stars from -21 1/2 to -24, 2-Stars up to -25.
Rotation #186 Oklahoma (-10 1/2) 4-Stars at -11 or less, 3-Stars from -11 1/2 to -13, 2- Stars at -13 1/2 or -14.
Rotation #184 Texas Tech (-8 1/2) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars at -10 1/2 or -11.
Rotation #130 Buffalo (-3) 3-Stars at -3 (-115 odds or better) or less, 2-Stars from -3 1/2 to -5 points.
Rotation #153 Illinois (-3 1/2) 2-Stars at -4 or less.
Rotation #165 Air Force (+3 1/2) 2-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #106 San Jose St (+18 1/2) Strong Opinion at +17 or more, 2- Star Best Bet at +20 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #140 Utah (-14) Strong Opinion at -14 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #194 UTEP (-3) Strong Opinion at -3 or less, 2-Stars at -1 or better.
4 Star Selection
****HOUSTON (-21.0) 47 Rice 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Don’t be fooled by Rice’s win at Southern Miss as a 20 ½ point dog. The Owls were fortunate to have Southern Miss quarterback Martevious Young get injured on the first series, which forced the Eagles to play with injured backup Stephen Reaves, who could barely throw the ball more than 10 yards and ended up tossing 4 interceptions. Rice was still out-gained 240 yards to 422 yards and the fact that they only won that game by 2 points despite being +5 in turnovers is a sign of just how bad the Owls are. For the season Rice has averaged a pathetic 4.1 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, and the Owls have given up 41 points per game on 6.5 yppl (against teams that would average only 5.2 yppl against an average defense). Houston’s very good offense (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) should score at will against the Owls regardless of which quarterback is on the field (Keenum and Joseph have split time but Joseph is questionable) and running back Anthony Alridge will run wild against a Rice defensive front that has surrendered 6.3 yards per rushing play the last 2 games against the two better than average running teams that they’ve faced (Texas and Southern Miss). Houston has a better than average defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team), so Rice isn’t likely to score many points with their pathetic attack unless they are blessed with 7 turnovers again this week (not likely). My math model projects a 587 yards to 268 yards edge for Houston in this game and the Cougars will be looking to take out their frustrations after losing their last two games to East Carolina and Alabama by a combined 8 points. Coach Art Briles is 6-1-1 ATS when facing a losing team after a loss in his 5 seasons at Houston, including a 24 point win at Tulane earlier this season (Rice is worse than Tulane and this game is at home). I’ll take Houston in a 4-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less, for 3-Stars from -21 ½ to -24 points and for 2-Stars at -24 ½ or -25 points.
4 Star Selection
****OKLAHOMA (-10.5) 44 Missouri 20
03:30 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Missouri certainly played well last week in whipping Nebraska, but the Tigers aren’t even close to being at the level of the Sooners. Missouri is a good offensive team, averaging 6.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, but that unit is not quite as good as an Oklahoma defense that rates at 1.2 yppl better than average (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team). The real mismatch in this game is when the Sooners have the ball. Oklahoma has averaged 7.4 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack) and the Sooners are equally good running and throwing the football (1.0 yprp better than average and 2.6 yppp better than average). Missouri’s defense played very well last week in holding Nebraska’s good offense to just 4.4 yppl, but the Tigers allowed an average of 485 total yards at 6.3 yppl to the two other better than average offensive teams that they had faced (Illinois and Mississippi) and they’ve allowed 5.4 yppl for the season to teams that would average only 5.2 yppl against an average defense. Missouri’s mediocre defense will not be able to stop the potent Oklahoma attack in Norman, where the Sooners are 15-3 ATS hosting conference foes when not favored by more than 21 points under coach Stoops. Oklahoma also applies to a solid 149-83-3 ATS indicator and my math model favors Oklahoma by 23 points. I’ll take Oklahoma in a 4- Star Best Bet at -11 points or less, for 3-Stars from -11 ½ to -13 points and for 2-Stars at -13 ½ and -14 points.
3 Star Selection
**BUFFALO (-3.5) 33 Toledo 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Buffalo is a much improved team in coach Turner Gill’s second season and the Bulls have played well against other below average teams, including a 31-10 home upset win last week over Ohio. Aside from that win, the Bulls beat up on Temple 42-7 and out-gained Baylor 5.0 yards per play to 4.7 yppl while losing only because of turnovers (-3 in TO margin). Overall, Buffalo rates at 0.7 yppl worse than average on offense (after taking out their garbage yardage against Penn State after falling behind 3-31) and just 0.2 yppl worse than average on defense (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). Buffalo’s offense rates and edge over a bad Toledo defense that’s surrendered 6.2 yppl in 6 games against teams that would average only 5.3 yppl against an average team. The Bulls also have a slight edge when Toledo as the ball as the Rockets are 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl). Toledo took the red shirt off of freshman D.J. Lenehan last week with the top 2 quarterbacks out with injury and Lenehan posted good numbers, going 19 of 23 passing for 226 yards (although with 2 picks). However, the 9.0 yards per pass play and the 6.5 yppl that Toledo produced with Lenehan at quarterback is not that impressive when you consider that their opponent, Liberty, would allow 9.8 yppp and 6.9 yppl on the road against an average Division 1A team – so the Rockets were 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively last week (a bit worse than they are for the season). Toledo barely beat a horrible Liberty team at home, having to come from behind to win 35-34, and that game sets up the Rockets in a negative 4-32 subset of a 46-100-2 ATS situation while Buffalo’s win last week sets the Bulls up in a 57-18-1 ATS home momentum situation that is 19-1 ATS if the opponent has a losing record. Toledo is also much better at home than they are on the road historically, as the Rockets are just 12-23-3 ATS on the road (0-2 ATS this season) and 22-11 ATS at home under coach Tom Amstutz. My math model favors Buffalo by 4 ½ points, so the line is more than fair, and I’ll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at - 5 or less and for 3-Stars at -3 (at -115 odds or less).
3 Star Selection
***TEXAS TECH (-8.5) 44 Texas A&M 26
12:30 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Texas Tech’s “Air Raid” offense matches up very well against a Texas A&M defense that has been horrible defending the pass this season, allowing 6.9 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppp against an average defensive team. The Aggies have faced 3 average or better passing teams and been torched through the air each time, giving up 7.8 yppp at home to an average Fresno State pass attack, allowing 9.4 yppp to Miami-Florida (Wright would average 7.8 yppp at home against an average defense) and giving up 8.8 yppp last week to an Oklahoma State aerial attack that would average 6.4 yppp on the road against an average team. Texas Tech throws the ball close to 60 times per game and averages 8.6 yppp (against teams that would allow 7.3 yppp), so the Red Raiders should have no trouble scoring in this game. Texas A&M will have a tough time keeping up with an attack that is barely better than average (5.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) going up against a decent Tech stop unit that is 0.1 yppl better than average. My math model takes match-ups into account and favors Texas Tech by 14 ½ points in this game. Aside from the line value the Red Raiders also tend to play better at home, where they are 20-9-1 ATS as a favorite of 27 points or less, including 17-5 ATS when not facing an unbeaten team. Tech also applies to a solid 145-69-7 ATS home momentum situation and I’ll take Texas Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at - 10 points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 ½ or -11 points.
2 Star Selection
**Illinois (-3.5) 26 IOWA 14
09:00 AM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
The only reason that Illinois is not favored by more than 3 ½ points in this game is the names on the jerseys. The line on this game would be about 7 points if Illinois didn’t have a history of losing and Iowa didn’t have a history of winning. The only thing that Iowa has going for them this season is their defense, which has allowed just 4.5 yards per play to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team. However, that defense has not been as good without leading tackler LB Mike Klinkenborg and starting S Devan Moylan the last two games, as the Hawkeyes allowed 5.7 yppl and 65 points in games against mediocre offensive teams Indiana and Penn State the last two weeks without Klinkenborg and Moylan, who are both listed as doubtful for this game. Illinois has been 0.5 yppl better than average offensively and their outstanding rushing attack (6.4 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) should have success against a Hawkeyes’ defensive front that allowed Penn State to run for 271 yards at 5.7 yprp last week. The real advantage for Illinois is when Iowa has the ball, as the Hawkeyes’ pedestrian attack (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) won’t be able to move the ball consistently against a solid Illini stop unit that has been 0.4 yppl better than average. Illinois also has an edge in special teams and my math model favors the Illini by 8 points in this game. The reason for the play is a very strong 65- 15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors Illinois and I’m not fearful of going against a free-falling Iowa program that has lost 8 consecutive Big 10 games. I’ll take Illinois in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**Air Force 28 COLORADO ST. (-3.5) 24
02:30 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Colorado State has lost 12 consecutive games and the Rams are favored over a 4-2 Air Force squad with wins over Utah and TCU. In reality Colorado State really isn’t that bad of a team, rating at just 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.1 yppl better than average on defense, but quarterback Caleb Haney continues to throw too many interceptions (8 in 5 games this season and 27 pick in 665 career passes (4.1%)). Air Force is 0.3 yppl better than average offensively and their option based attack should work well running against a soft Rams’ defensive front that has allowed 5.7 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average 5.0 yprp against an average defensive team). Air Force is also solid on defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl) so the Falcons have a slightly edge over Colorado State’s attack. My math model favors Air Force by 1 point and the Falcons apply to a 65-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I’ll take Air Force in a 3-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 ½ or +3 points.
Friday Strong Opinion
SAN JOSE ST. 26 Hawaii (-18.5) 39
05:00 PM Pacific, 12-Oct-07
San Jose State started the season with 4 road games in 4 weeks and the first 3 resulted in losses by a combined score of 17-116 at Arizona State, Kansas State, and Stanford. The Spartans have a bit of their swagger back after beating 3 bad teams the last 3 weeks and I think they’re capable of competing with Hawaii today on their home turf – where they are 8-1 straight up and 6-1 ATS since last season with their only loss being a 3 point decision as a 13 point dog to a Boise State team that ended last season unbeaten. San Jose State doesn’t have a rushing attack without star Yonus Davis (just 3.0 yards per rushing play) but veteran quarterback Adam Tafralis has adjusted to his new receiving corps and he’s now averaging 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback). Hawaii’s defense has been average so far, allowing 4.3 yppl to a schedule of bad offensive teams that would combine to average just 4.3 yppl against an average defense, but San Jose State will provide the first better than average pass offense and I think the Spartans will move the ball pretty well through the air in this game. Hawaii will, of course, move the ball through the air with Colt Brennan and company averaging 7.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl, but Brennan has missed time in recent weeks with a badly sprained ankle and he was pulled last week in a non-covering win over Utah State. Brennan will be throwing against a good secondary that makes up for their mediocre yards per pass play allowed average by taking a lot of risks that payoff in interceptions. All-American CB Dwight Lowry and fellow CB Chris Owens combined for 13 interceptions last season (Lowry had 9) and they already have 5 between them this season while the team has picked off 11 passes in 6 games. The line is about right in this game but the San Jose State has been much better at home and Hawaii applies to a negative 7-31-1 ATS subset of a 94-171-10 ATS road favorite letdown situation and I’ll consider San Jose State a Strong Opinion at +17 points or more and I’d make San Jose State a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UTAH (-14.0) 37 San Diego St. 18
12:00 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
San Diego State is coming an upset win as a double-digit dog at Colorado State while Utah is coming off an upset as a double-digit win at Louisville. San Diego State applies to a negative 52-117-2 ATS letdown situation while Utah’s upset sets them up in a 50-18 ATS home favorite momentum situation that just won last week with Auburn and Indiana. Utah quarterback Brian Johnson is starting to come around after missing a few weeks with a separated shoulder he suffered in week 1, as he averaged 9.6 yards per pass play in last week’s win (although Louisville would give up 8.2 yppp to an average quarterback). For the season Johnson has been 0.5 yppp worse than average but I suspect that mark will improve given that he was 1.5 yppp better than average as a starter in the 2005 season. Johnson’s numbers should be very good in this game against an Aztecs’ defense that has given up 8.0 yppp and 6.7 yards per play this season (to teams that would average 6.1 yppp and 5.5 yppp against an average defense). San Diego State has allowed an average of 38 points in their 4 games against Division 1A opposition and I see Utah getting around that number in this game. San Diego State has a good attack, averaging 6.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but the Aztecs have only averaged 19 points against 4 Division 1A teams. Utah has a solid defense that’s yielded just 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit, so they should slow down that San Diego State attack. My math model favors Utah by 16 ½ points and the situations strongly favor the Utes, but I’ll downgrade this a bit since Utah is just 4-12-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more under coach Kyle Whittingham. I’ll consider Utah a Strong Opinion at -14 or less.
Strong Opinion
TEXAS EL PASO (-3.0) 37 East Carolina 29
06:05 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
East Carolina turned a +5 in turnover margin into a 52-38 win over Central Florida last week, but that victory sets up the Pirates in a negative 51-121-2 ATS road letdown situation this week. UTEP is coming off an upset win over Tulsa and the Miners have yet to lose to the pointspread this season. The Miners are good offensively (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and should score plenty of points against a banged up ECU defense that’s been 0.3 yppl worse than average so far this season and may be without two of their top defenders with linebackers Quentin Cotton and Pierre Bell both questionable with shoulder injuries. Quarterback Robert Kass finally took over the starting quarterback job for the Pirates last week after starting the season by losing that spot due to off the field problems. Kass played well in his starting debut last week and I rate the Pirates as better than average with Kass at the controls instead of being 0.3 yppl worse than average as their season stats suggest. UTEP struggles defensively (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team) and my math model only favors the Miners by 1 point after adjusting ECU’s offense with Kass as the starting quarterback. The situation is favorable but it’s not good enough to give up much line value so I’ll consider UTEP a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less and I’d take UTEP in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
sportjunky
Follower of tha truddhist philosophy
ClevelandsBest
Pretty much a regular
I'll take that bet all day. Illinois was the play the last two weeks not this one IMO
frankiegotti
Power Boat Enthusiast
i really wish he was on texas a&m, i guess thats what i get for waiting.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Thanks for posting those, Counselor.
Me too Nick...will most likely play them now..have some other good info on that as well..
GoBucksIndy
Pretty much a regular
-2 Stars and 2-1 on strong opinions.......assuming strong opinions are 1 star it's still another losing week for Bob......
I wonder how much longer people will continue to pound his picks to the point where they dramatically move the lines. You have to think some people are starting to jump ship.
I wonder how much longer people will continue to pound his picks to the point where they dramatically move the lines. You have to think some people are starting to jump ship.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
GoBucks: Enough bookmakers have access to the information that the lines are going to move whether people bet them or not.
I guess the answer to that question, then, is simple. No matter whether people jump ship or not... I, and the people I work on this side of the counter with, mostly believe that he's going to get it turned around sooner than later. The Missouri loss for him was brutal. Stuff like that starts going your way and your "math model" looks better....
I guess the answer to that question, then, is simple. No matter whether people jump ship or not... I, and the people I work on this side of the counter with, mostly believe that he's going to get it turned around sooner than later. The Missouri loss for him was brutal. Stuff like that starts going your way and your "math model" looks better....
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