Don't take the bait...

IvyinBarondise

IvyinBarondise

Pretty much a regular
2015-2016 NFL Record ATS 6-3 (+3.55 units)

Road favs playing with terrific records vs underachieving teams at lines that look too good to be true...

Don't jump on the public wave this week...there are a lot of spots and I don't think there's a profitable % out there...


ATL @ NO +3
Cincy @ Blo +3.5
Denver @ Cleveland +4


I believe in all three home teams just about the same amount this week. I expect at least a 2-1 record. It's all about motivation and inflated lines due to small sample sizes. I'm going one unit on all three and I wish you all BOL:shake:
 
problem is that atl line isnt inflated, aints in the dome still garner enough respect to keep line short.. i like the under better than side but no way would i have aints here, maybe in years past with the old falcon teams but their run game is too strong and they incredibly committed to it with the second most rushing attempts per game in the league, one of the best time of possession margins, and a defense that flies around to the ball. that shit travels on a short week and i expect them to pound it down the aints throats to the tune of 200 yards with freeman/coleman and they be salting this clock away all 4th qrtr..

agree with the others, would like bills a lot better if ej manual wasnt gonna be under center but i think this a really choice spot for ginger to regress a little.. gl
 
I have watched every play of the Saints games...they are awful

the line makes no sense....zero. the organization is in turmoil, and the fans have turned
 
It's a division game on the road. Not sure how much higher you'd expect the Falcons to be favored by? If this was at home you'd make the Falcons -10 or so correct?
 
GL Ivy. I'm already on my Bills. Line opened under a fg and Tyrod news made it jump- perception driven line jump just gives more value on the ml. I think the defense finally woke up last week and this week it keeps them in this game.
 
2daBank said:
problem is that atl line isnt inflated, aints in the dome still garner enough respect to keep line short.. i like the under better than side but no way would i have aints here, maybe in years past with the old falcon teams but their run game is too strong and they incredibly committed to it with the second most rushing attempts per game in the league, one of the best time of possession margins, and a defense that flies around to the ball. that shit travels on a short week and i expect them to pound it down the aints throats to the tune of 200 yards with freeman/coleman and they be salting this clock away all 4th qrtr..

agree with the others, would like bills a lot better if ej manual wasnt gonna be under center but i think this a really choice spot for ginger to regress a little.. gl
Click to expand...

This.

Have this game at 3 by my rankings, via Elo rankings it's 2.5.

Books will never make Brees a home dog of more than 4 in the Dome.

Julio Jones also ? for Atlanta.

Either way the Saints will not contain the Dirty Birds run game.

Only hope for the Saints in this game is league fuckery.

Big difference between underachieving and simply being a bad team, Saints are the latter.

Inflated lines for the road faves are in Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Indianapolis.
 
emkee said:
This.

Have this game at 3 by my rankings, via Elo rankings it's 2.5.

Books will never make Brees a home dog of more than 4 in the Dome.

Julio Jones also ? for Atlanta.

Either way the Saints will not contain the Dirty Birds run game.

Only hope for the Saints in this game is league fuckery.

Big difference between underachieving and simply being a bad team, Saints are the latter.

Inflated lines for the road faves are in Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Indianapolis.
Click to expand...

In saying all that, would only play ML on Atlanta and did. If shits gonna get shady it will be with the spread.

Hate when books hang juiced key numbers. Has moved to 3.5 at Pinny though.
 
nbafan88 said:
It's a division game on the road. Not sure how much higher you'd expect the Falcons to be favored by? If this was at home you'd make the Falcons -10 or so correct?
Click to expand...

I would expect 9 or 10, but i would personally cap it at 6.5...

NO's back is up against the wall...ATL is coming off of a luck win in a short week which doesn't make it easy to lay any road points...
I guess we'll see tomorrow...BOL guys
 
The Julio question mark is concerning but it sounds like Tevin is healthy again. if that is so, watch out. I never bet unders with Brees because he is the king of late game garbage (see last week) but it could be a 24-14 type game.
 
IvyinBarondise said:
I would expect 9 or 10, but i would personally cap it at 6.5...

NO's back is up against the wall...ATL is coming off of a luck win in a short week which doesn't make it easy to lay any road points...
I guess we'll see tomorrow...BOL guys
Click to expand...

It's beyond that.....that was last week

this team is finished and you will see on Thurs.....I expect a throttle by ATL
 
nbafan88 said:
It's a division game on the road. Not sure how much higher you'd expect the Falcons to be favored by? If this was at home you'd make the Falcons -10 or so correct?
Click to expand...

I guesss the bookies would never dog Brees at home before this season(has he been lately, maybe 2 times?)), and he has been money at home at night

I am just saying I wouldn't play the Saints with your money
 
IvyinBarondise said:
I would expect 9 or 10, but i would personally cap it at 6.5...

NO's back is up against the wall...ATL is coming off of a luck win in a short week which doesn't make it easy to lay any road points...
I guess we'll see tomorrow...BOL guys
Click to expand...


Atlanta isn't coming off a luck win. They're coming off a win where they played flat the entire game because they half assed the game. Teams prepare for two games during the week when they have a TNF coming up. And the skins actually play run defense. The saints don't know how to stop air. Giving up 4.5 yards per rush.


Nobody in New Orleans actually thinks this team can make the playoffs. The backs up against the wall is silly to say. They haven't underachieved. They just flat out suck
 
Drew Brees as a HD with the Saints, never higher than 4. Also safe to say this current Saints team is worse than any of the previous ones on display below...

[TABLE="class: dataTable no-footer"]
<tbody>[TR="class: even"]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: sorting_asc, align: center"]Date[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Link[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Day[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Week[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Season[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Team[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Opp[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Site[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Q1[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Q2[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Q3[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Q4[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Final[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Line[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]Total[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]SUm[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]ATSm[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]OUm[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]DPS[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]DPA[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]SUr[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]ATSr[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]OUr[/TH]
[TH="class: sorting, align: center"]ot[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: sorting_1, align: center"]Sep 25, 2006[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Monday[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2006[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Saints[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Falcons[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]14-3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6-0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3-0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0-0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]23-3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]43.5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]24.0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-17.5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-20.8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]W[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]W[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]U[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: sorting_1, bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Oct 15, 2006[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]2006[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Saints[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Eagles[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]10-0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]7-3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]0-14[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]10-7[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]27-24[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]46.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]6.0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]4.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]5.2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]-0.8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]W[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]W[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]O[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: sorting_1, align: center"]Dec 31, 2006[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]17[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2006[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Saints[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Panthers[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7-7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7-7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7-14[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0-3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21-31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-10[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-7.5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]15.0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]11.2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]L[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]L[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]O[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: sorting_1, bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Oct 26, 2008[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]2008[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Saints[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Chargers[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]3-3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]20-14[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]7-3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]7-12[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]37-32[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]46.0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]8.0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]23.0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]15.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]7.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]W[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]W[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]O[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: sorting_1, align: center"]Dec 28, 2008[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]17[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2008[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Saints[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Panthers[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0-6[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10-17[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0-7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21-3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]31-33[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]51.5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12.5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6.5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6.0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]L[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]W[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]O[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: sorting_1, bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Nov 11, 2012[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]2012[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Saints[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Falcons[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]7-10[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]14-7[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]7-0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]3-10[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]31-27[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]53.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]4.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]5.2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]-0.8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]W[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]W[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]O[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: sorting_1, align: center"]Nov 25, 2012[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2012[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Saints[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Fortyniners[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]home[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7-7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7-7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7-14[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0-3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21-31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-10[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-3.2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]L[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]L[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]O[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: sorting_1, bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Oct 15, 2015[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]view[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Thursday[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]2015[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Saints[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]Falcons[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]3.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: ffffff, align: center"]51.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
nobody's out of the playoffs after 5 weeks. No team just gives up on the season in October. ATL will never have LESS motivation for a game w/o everything clinched in the regular season. NO has underachieved for the first five weeks, but this is a team with a lot of pride and a veteran QB in the spotlight on Thursday night. There's a reason the line doesn't support the start of the season, and it didn't get split action, it's a huge public play. Simply fading public plays on Mondays and Thursdays alone will profit you$$...Tightest lines of the week against the public's minds.

Anyways, we can agree to disagree...I like the Saints tonight so BOL to me and no luck wished to any ATL backer :)
 
Simply fading public plays on Mondays and Thursdays alone will profit you$$..

Rings true on Sunday nights but the day before Friday is generally for the favorites...

Faves 126-46 SU (96-71-5 ATS) on Thursday night football.

Monday nights also surprisingly fave orientated as well over a large sample.

Would take an Atlanta 2 point win either way.
 
Nice call Ivy. That is what the NFL is all about bro. 5 fumbles and the Saints go Steve Gleason and block the punt and score....pick those spots bro. I hop you are ready to make money on the other side of this team, cuz it is there to be made bro


But nice nice call....GL
 
Yeah, it's just spots... Rarely do I find myself liking the same team weeks in a row. This was a tough spot for ATL. These lines are so tight that we gotta look for the small edges.


On to Sunday
 
more and more I look at Denver @ Cleveland ...the more I think Cleveland could be a good moneyline play today...

Have very little faith in Broncos this season actually. Under looks ok too
 
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