Does anyone here regularly wager on +1.5 RL's?

[Gyno]

If so, tell me more about it?


I hear there is money to be made.. Hope to get some good discussion going here.

 

[Wiretowire]

Pretty well known that of course I do. +2 1/2 games as well and I don't mind saying I have taken a lot of heat for it in the past. The only thing people see are these huge odds to get the runs. What they miss is that I almost always parlay all the +2 1/2 games and then you are talking 2 or 3 to one if you put together 4 games depending of course on the odds. I will only play a heavy dog without a parlay so the odds are not much more than -130 or so but you do get the +2 1/2 runs.

As for +1 1/2 runs I will play them and I have had great success in the past. I will only take +1 1/2 runs when I am absolutely sure the side will win though on the ML. I know that sounds dumb but that insurance has paid off for me more often than not. Almost always a road team favorite +1 1/2 runs because the books heavily count home field and the road team will save .30 or more just for visiting. That means it will usually cost you -100 to buy the runs on average but because it's the visiting favorite it actually only costs you .70 or .60 for those runs. I will parlay +1 1/2 runs as well but only 2 or rarely 3 teams but never 4 teams.

To me it is just insurance on a side I already like. Same with the +2 1/2 parlays as well. Just my thoughts though because damn near everyone disagrees with spending the juice. But damn near everyone usually loses or at best breaks even over the long baseball season so who is to say. GL

 

[DaRaiders]

Road dogs hitting at an alarming rate...see trey dogs post for breakdown....
I have all 4 games tonight road dogs -1.5 for stupid + $$$

http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?91955-1-5-RL

 

[Gyno]

you never bet +1.5s?

 

[DaRaiders]

you never bet +1.5s?

Most of the time in parlays

 

[wizardofodd]

you are better playing -1.5 and alt rl at -1.5

you see in the thread from trey dog the %.

Value wise, it makes no sense.

I do think that if the total was set at 6.5 or lower, your chances at the +1.5 are better.

 

[Wiretowire]

Good try and thread Gyno but no one even wants to talk about it. It's like it's against the laws of gambling to even mention anything that increases juice. You'd have better luck striking up a conversation about the number 7 at a craps table during a hot roll. GL :rofl:

 

[Gyno]

I feel ya wire.. It's a good topic..

 

[Inspekdah]

Some shops have such inflated RL's that you can get the dog at better plus odds than the favorite is laying at other shops. I would think this would have to be profitable. I think RL plus money dogs this year has been profitable.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Everyone here who has seen my work in baseball the last 10 years knows that I will never bet a game +1.5 runs. How can you possibly bet on a team to lose by exactly 1? That is my rationale.

WITH THAT SAID, some of the most successful baseball bettors in the world, specifically QT comes to mind (although he's getting buried this season) have made millions taking +1.5 runs. Pinnacle's own office is largely responsible for pumping up all of these big favorites so they can go in toward post and take out all the +1.5 at better numbers. These are not idiots doing this, but merely some of the best gamblers (read - sports investors) in the whole world just getting the best of it math-wise.

More times than not, the math supports that -1.5 is a bad play and +1.5 is a good one if the markets were dealt on a man-to-man exchange. With the books juicing both sides properly, the players should always be up against it no matter which way they go but inevitably the +1.5 is a better bet because mostly suckers lay 1.5 (and suckers have a large share of the baseball market especially when laying big numbers). Hence, you see the syndicate money come in on +1.5 after the game gets either driven up by the suckers or pinny, englishman et al phoney the game up even higher than it should be to begin with.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

I love taking a road +1.5 with a heavy ML favorite in a parlay.

 

[Gyno]

Everyone here who has seen my work in baseball the last 10 years knows that I will never bet a game +1.5 runs. How can you possibly bet on a team to lose by exactly 1? That is my rationale.

WITH THAT SAID, some of the most successful baseball bettors in the world, specifically QT comes to mind (although he's getting buried this season) have made millions taking +1.5 runs. Pinnacle's own office is largely responsible for pumping up all of these big favorites so they can go in toward post and take out all the +1.5 at better numbers. These are not idiots doing this, but merely some of the best gamblers (read - sports investors) in the whole world just getting the best of it math-wise.

More times than not, the math supports that -1.5 is a bad play and +1.5 is a good one if the markets were dealt on a man-to-man exchange. With the books juicing both sides properly, the players should always be up against it no matter which way they go but inevitably the +1.5 is a better bet because mostly suckers lay 1.5 (and suckers have a large share of the baseball market especially when laying big numbers). Hence, you see the syndicate money come in on +1.5 after the game gets either driven up by the suckers or pinny, englishman et al phoney the game up even higher than it should be to begin with.

someone who gets it.... This was the post I was waiting for and confirmed a lot of what I already knew and what I already thought....

 

[Detox]

hate all +1.5, +1, -1.5, -1 bets

the only time i'd consider a +1.5 is with an extremely low total like 6 but the juice would be heavy

 

[CollegeKingRex]

that's another secret to the formula, the +1.5 offers great value when the total is 6.5 compared to when it's 9. Notice that on two similar games (ML's with say a -160 road favorite or -160 home favorite), the RL's won't be more than maybe 10-15 cents off tops when the math dictates 25-30 cents is the closer to correct number.