Do I Hedge Tomorrow

[Cappingchubster11]

Boys, I need some help here. I'm a long time lurker and I do this as a hobby. I used to be an avid bloodhound follower (rip- miss ya tons bud), but now do my own novice level capping and cap the capers on this site as BAR has mentioned. I began the WC with about 20 units left over from March madness and CL and have been tailing KJ for the most part (thanks for crushing it bud). My unit is 10$ and I'm about 20 units up (again tailing KJ except for Colombia vs Poland & Senegal since I was at the games). I'm currently in Russia for the World Cup, my wife is Croatian and I'm Colombian (what a semi final that would be), and I'm debating betting on England tomorrow (yes I'll be at the match). This was a bet I made emotionally (again this is a hobby for me lol) after Colombia lost to Japan. My heart says to let it ride until the semis, but my mind says to get something out of this 1 unit bet since I'm up already. I'm also debating letting it ride tomorrow then begin to hedge next round when Colombia could be a favorite. The homer in me says Colombia has a pretty easy path after England (no ex World Cup winners). If James was 100% I think we could win the tournament or at least make the finals. Since he clearly is not, not so much... This bet can pay for my entire football season entertainment . I feel I need to make something on it. Can some of you more experienced guys provide some insight and thoughts?

Thanks,
Chub

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Great introduction. My 2 cents is you hedge cause England is going to win. I love your team's passion but going to be super tuff as u know. Gl

 

[RetroVK]

Can really only bet "to advance" to hedge though. Do you have that option where you bet?

Were colombia full strength, they are right there with croatia as second best remaining on that side of the bracket (England looks the best to me). In other words, your follow up hedge, were Colombia to advance isn't going to be bad the next two games before the final. And if the team gets healthy (I don't follow their injury report), they are probably the clear second best. You sure cannot fear a croatia team that got outplayed by denmark in an elimination game.

The real question is about how much to hedge and that gets more difficult to figure out.

 

[KJ]

Thanks for the words mate, no denying there's been a fair share of luck our way so far although feels like I've been seeing it fairly well to boot.

Hedging isn't really my thing, if it was I'd have to get involved with live betting and play the game, honestly I've been much more content since ditching it. Obviously in this case I like the team playing against your squad and obviously that makes it less than fun, especially if you're gonna be at the match. Guess at this age I've accepted separating wagering and fandom but understand it isn't easy.

England to advance sits at -185 for me atm, not too shabby. I'm not as high on the Colombians this go round, moreso the shock factor isn't there this year like 4 years ago than James injury. But the lines certainly have been shaded their way more than I expected for sure. Colombia will be favored next if they win, probably against Croatia if it gets that far as well...however unless they play the Swedes I won't be on em.

GL and enjoy the game!

 

[~Utah]

I'd say fuck it and I'd let it ride. But this is coming from a guy that could have bet a little on Russia over Spain with a Spain future and did not.

 

[RetroVK]

To be fair, I am not a hedger either because you can only hedge your good futures. But if you are hedging it shouldn't be difficult to secure profit with that price.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff. I think many here are jealous of anyone at the World Cup. Anything can happen... What was your goal coming in? I bet futures to gain position many times so that's where you have to start when you ask yourself this question.

 

[RetroVK]

Ya. I think the active live bettors are the guys who can best answer this .. because they are trading on the regular.

 

[~Utah]

What about hedging a bit by taking England to win the WC at +600? Is that something that you can make work?

 

[Cappingchubster11]

Wow thanks for the great feedback guys. I had to get my Z’s in this morning given that kickoff is at 9pm tonight and I have an early flight out.

What about hedging a bit by taking England to win the WC at +600? Is that something that you can make work?

I was thinking something along these lines. Given that I feel Colombia’s biggest threat at the moment is England, I may lock in a future on England for tonight then reassess tomorrow after the match. The question is how much should I put? Maybe a bit on England and a bit on Croatia. Thoughts?

- Chub

 

[Cappingchubster11]

Can really only bet "to advance" to hedge though. Do you have that option where you bet?

Were colombia full strength, they are right there with croatia as second best remaining on that side of the bracket (England looks the best to me). In other words, your follow up hedge, were Colombia to advance isn't going to be bad the next two games before the final. And if the team gets healthy (I don't follow their injury report), they are probably the clear second best. You sure cannot fear a croatia team that got outplayed by denmark in an elimination game.

The real is about how much to hedge and that gets more difficult to figure out.

I have acces to both live betting and “to advance” which I currently see at -175 for England. Obviously live betting not an option this go around since I’ll be at the match. Ugh this is tough. Has Scrute been around recently? I recall him giving some pretty good hedging insight in the past. Thanks for the thoughts VK, I’ll post what I end up going with.

Chub

 

[GWarner27]

if you want out immediately, play ENG to advance to cover your risk (or maybe profit a little). In reality you have a long way to go

 

[GWarner27]

and i'd rather be at the stadium rooting for my future AND COUNTRY

 

[Cappingchubster11]

Boys, I let it ride and it cost me. However I do not regret it one bit. When Mina scored that header in the 93rd it was absolute madness. The feeling was equivalent to seeing Kelvin Benjamin catch that game winning pass from Jameis at the rose bowl. Two moments I'll never forget. The officiating was garbage but in the end England deserved it. We almost stole one, and now I'm left to wonder what could have been if James was healthy. I appreciate all the feedback. Vamos Colombia!

Chub

 

[KJ]

So unbelievable

Once you make it home safe (prolly have by now) join us and shoot the shit ingame....hope it was a blast!

 

[B.A.R.]

Glad you had an awesome experience.

 

[RetroVK]

Awesome ..... jealous of your experience. I am guessing you will never forget it.

So the Mrs is one of the hot Colombian chicks they kept showing....... except she is Croatian.... but she looks Colombian. I am confused.

 

[KJ]

Awesome ..... jealous of your experience. I am guessing you will never forget it.

So the Mrs is one of the hot Colombian chicks they kept showing....... except she is Croatian.... but she looks Colombian. I am confused.

Let's face it, doesn't take much

 

[Cappingchubster11]

Awesome ..... jealous of your experience. I am guessing you will never forget it.

So the Mrs is one of the hot Colombian chicks they kept showing....... except she is Croatian.... but she looks Colombian. I am confused.

Haha, the GF is Croatian. Here we are at the Croatia vs Argentina game, the chick in the other photo is my little sis. It really was an unbelievable experience. I went to Brazil 4 years ago and told myself I will never miss a WC again. This was my second tournament and was able to plan it much better since I already had experienced one. I was on the fence about Qatar, but after Russia, I think I'm going to try to make it happen.

 

[Cappingchubster11]

So unbelievable

Once you make it home safe (prolly have by now) join us and shoot the shit ingame....hope it was a blast!

Made it home Friday just in time for the Brazil vs Belgium match. So entertaining, they don't get much better than that. Great read on that btw. You have continued to crush it. Can't wait to read your thoughts on England Croatia. I was a bit surprised to see England favored. I get that Croatia was on the brink vs Russia, but eliminating a host with that much momentum is no easy task. I'm guessing fatigue and injuries could be part of it. If i recall correctly before yesterday's matches (5dimes - book I use) had an "outright winner" bet for Croatia vs England at Croatia -125. I now have Croatia at +135 to advance. Could an injured keeper plus a close & extended game vs the host have that much of a swing? I would expect this if Modric or Rakitic were hurt but that is not the case. Thoughts?

 

[Cappingchubster11]

One more thing one England, did anyone else notice that Harry Kane only scored 3 in play goals (which is the same as Yerry Mina btw ) and they were vs shit competition in Panama and Tunisia? He has yet to really make an impact vs quality competition. Is this more a result of the defence focusing on him? He looked quite gassed at the end of the Sweden game.

 

[GWarner27]

i think you were mistaken on the Croatia line, ENG has been preferred by 5d specifically for a while. With that said, I've been leading the ENG isn't very good and Kane hasn't done anything but score penalties train, but it didn't matter in the quarters..

Would love to hear your tentative plan for Qatar because I want to go too

 

[Cappingchubster11]

i think you were mistaken on the Croatia line, ENG has been preferred by 5d specifically for a while. With that said, I've been leading the ENG isn't very good and Kane hasn't done anything but score penalties train, but it didn't matter in the quarters..

Would love to hear your tentative plan for Qatar because I want to go too

Bumping this as my Qatar plans are in full swing. GWarner, still looking to head out there? I'll be there from Nov 24th - Dec 1st. USA vs England on my list, and I already secured Arg vs Mexico tickets.

 

[GWarner27]

Bumping this as my Qatar plans are in full swing. GWarner, still looking to head out there? I'll be there from Nov 24th - Dec 1st. USA vs England on my list, and I already secured Arg vs Mexico tickets.

i was hoping to do a Dallas-Doha direct flight then saw they cost $3400 roundtrip so i think i'm gonna pass. Very hard to find anybody willing to go didn't help