Divisional

BOL Cap.

Early weather report in Orchard Park for Sunday looks like light snow, winds 10mph. Nothing too bad. Like this over as well. - Bengals should find more success against this Bills LB core than they did against Ravens studs.

Would love know how healthy Hurts is? Week off probably helped a lot; but he clearly wasn’t right in week 18; but that may have been by design.

Would love to hear your Chiefs breakdown of this one? If weather is ok, can’t see how this one doesn’t fly over the total. Jags D is not good by any advanced metric.
 
So far every game has gone over the total. It’s possible the game last night was a push if you got 41, but the other 4 games flew over the total.
 
I lean toward the Bengals at 6 but let’s remember a few things. In week 17 the Bills were favorites on the road at Cincy (anywhere from 1 to 2.5 depending on when and where). In Buffalo, this always should have been in the 5/6 range.

Second, don’t get caught up in any of the “x % of the bets are on Buffalo but the line moved to 6. All it takes is a large (and there have been some) wager on a team to shift the market. This should not move your play from one team to the next. If you liked a team all week, stick with it. We didn’t move past any key numbers here, though now at 6 you start looking at it.

Just some unsolicited Sunday morning wisdom. (edit: Everyone here is wise, just trying to reframe the thought process!)


I am adding Over 46.5 San Fran/Dallas
 
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