Divisional Round

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Haven’t posted my own plays in a while. Finished up on the season but I take it personally when I have a few bad weeks and I wouldn’t want someone tailing when I’m ice cold.

Minn +7 (-115)
Tenn +10 (-119)
KC -9.5

like GB. Waiting to find a 4 again

GL to all with the exception of anyone on the Texans
 
GL Cap! Thoughts on KC tt o30.5? I like this offense much better with Damien Williams playing.

I do think there is a perception that KC's d is soft even though they finished the season on a 6 game win streak. People may be surprised to see them playing defense and I stand by the fact that the Texan's oline is swiss cheese. I worry KC gets ahead early and pounds the run to shorten the game a bit.
 
Cap - any insight to the last meeting between the two teams? I know PM was banged up and they were coming of that colts loss :) . But I remember Houston dominating TOP and Running all over them , similar to what happened the week before vs Indy . What has changed significantly on the defensive end for KC that you think they should be laying this number ? I’ve seen this all too many times in the Peyton days where he just had limited number of possessions and zero margin of error on offense Bc there defense couldn’t get off the field . Obv that is a popular gameplan vs KC .
 
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Lexington 125 said:
GL Cap! Thoughts on KC tt o30.5? I like this offense much better with Damien Williams playing.

I do think there is a perception that KC's d is soft even though they finished the season on a 6 game win streak. People may be surprised to see them playing defense and I stand by the fact that the Texan's oline is swiss cheese. I worry KC gets ahead early and pounds the run to shorten the game a bit.
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I think the kc pass d has become really good. I still worry about their ability to stop the run but I dunno if that be a huge deal in this one? Who knows wtf O’Brien’s game plan will look like?
 
I have a hard time seeing how the Texans compete with KC. Should be a 14-17 point win at least.
 
Lexington 125 said:
GL Cap! Thoughts on KC tt o30.5? I like this offense much better with Damien Williams playing.

I do think there is a perception that KC's d is soft even though they finished the season on a 6 game win streak. People may be surprised to see them playing defense and I stand by the fact that the Texan's oline is swiss cheese. I worry KC gets ahead early and pounds the run to shorten the game a bit.
Click to expand...

Really my biggest concern is this right here. Fast start and Andy takes the foot off the gas. He's truly an excellent coach and nobody will ever convince me otherwise. But his conservative nature in the 2nd half has led to a couple of memorable losses. People don't focus on going 27-3 in the last 30 division games using the same strategy. It's the losses that people focus on. I think at the least a smaller play on the TT o30.5 is worth a shot but not a full unit.

memphis said:
Cap - any insight to the last meeting between the two teams? I know PM was banged up and they were coming of that colts loss :) . But I remember Houston dominating TOP and Running all over them , similar to what happened the week before vs Indy . What has changed significantly on the defensive end for KC that you think they should be laying this number ? I’ve seen this all too many times in the Peyton days where he just had limited number of possessions and zero margin of error on offense Bc there defense couldn’t get off the field . Obv that is a popular gameplan vs KC .
Click to expand...

I posted this in the game thread and this is my thought process on that game..

Chiefs up 17-3 driving, PI called on the play deep in Houston territory leading to an INT. Flag picked up with no coherent explanation and that game changed. Mahomes also got his ankle landed on the next drive. I believe they scored once the rest of the way.

We didn't have Watkins, Fisher, Wylie, or Reiter. Chris Jones, Anthony Hitchens, Xavier Williams or Dorian O’Daniel . Frank Clark had neck injury and Tyreek Hill played half the snaps. Also only had Kendall Fuller for 1 quarter...No Mike Pennel and no Suggs. Every one of those guys is a starter with the exception of O’Daniel.

Houston will not be able to play keep away with the way this D is playing. They don't have the flash or the rep as "hard-hitting" but Steve Spagnolo has done wonders with the scheme. He let them have growing pains and all credit to Tyrann Mathieu for the newfound attitude and swagger of this defense.
 
Capaholic said:
Really my biggest concern is this right here. Fast start and Andy takes the foot off the gas. He's truly an excellent coach and nobody will ever convince me otherwise. But his conservative nature in the 2nd half has led to a couple of memorable losses. People don't focus on going 27-3 in the last 30 division games using the same strategy. It's the losses that people focus on. I think at the least a smaller play on the TT o30.5 is worth a shot but not a full unit.



I posted this in the game thread and this is my thought process on that game..

Chiefs up 17-3 driving, PI called on the play deep in Houston territory leading to an INT. Flag picked up with no coherent explanation and that game changed. Mahomes also got his ankle landed on the next drive. I believe they scored once the rest of the way.

We didn't have Watkins, Fisher, Wylie, or Reiter. Chris Jones, Anthony Hitchens, Xavier Williams or Dorian O’Daniel . Frank Clark had neck injury and Tyreek Hill played half the snaps. Also only had Kendall Fuller for 1 quarter...No Mike Pennel and no Suggs. Every one of those guys is a starter with the exception of O’Daniel.

Houston will not be able to play keep away with the way this D is playing. They don't have the flash or the rep as "hard-hitting" but Steve Spagnolo has done wonders with the scheme. He let them have growing pains and all credit to Tyrann Mathieu for the newfound attitude and swagger of this defense.
Click to expand...

I hated spags as a head coach in St. Louis but he has always been very good with his defensive schemes that for sure.

I’m in same boat as you with Andy Reid, drives me nuts ppl act as if a guy hasn’t won a Super Bowl it means he not successful. Going to all those championship games and a SB with Mcnabb and all the playoff appearances with Alex Smith is quite the accomplishment imo. How different would the narrative be if pats didn’t kick that last second fg or one those picks by Brady counted last year and he had a ring? That is fucking ridiculous imo. So if kicker misses a fg then he a great coach? I think a coaches record off a bye week speaks volumes for what kind of coach he is and as you know his record after a bye is impeccable. Guy a HOF coach imo.
 
Cap = great to see your post. I agree with both your selections today.

First, good luck and its always good to have you here

Second, how you thinking about the total in Texans v KC? I have my thoughts but wanted your unaffected by my bias.
 
NFL will not let KC lose this game. I know we are talking spread here but they need Mahomes in the conference final with Lamar losing. 8 expect this to be blowout city, something like 31-13. Just my opinion.
 
bones said:
Cap = great to see your post. I agree with both your selections today.

First, good luck and its always good to have you here

Second, how you thinking about the total in Texans v KC? I have my thoughts but wanted your unaffected by my bias.
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I honestly lean to the under based on some of what I mentioned in the game thread. I don’t see it as a back and forth shootout. I do see a fast start but if the Chiefs have the lead they will most certainly take the foot off the gas late and run clock (I don’t agree with it always but it’s what we do). I think you have a decent shot of first half over hitting and full game under.
 
Good luck with the Chiefs today.

Sometimes it takes good luck + timing, with that Fins win / entire offense getting healthy / Titans win, it definitely feels like things are trending in their direction. Got them at 8/1 to win the AFC before the Chargers MNF game so I’m certainly pulling for them with you.
 
Capaholic said:
I honestly lean to the under based on some of what I mentioned in the game thread. I don’t see it as a back and forth shootout. I do see a fast start but if the Chiefs have the lead they will most certainly take the foot off the gas late and run clock (I don’t agree with it always but it’s what we do). I think you have a decent shot of first half over hitting and full game under.
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I am with you on the UNDER thoughts....I have bet under 51.5 for much same reasons. I frankly think that the game will likely land about 28-16, 31-17, maybe a 28-20
 
Teapot9 said:
How was the arrowhead parking lot this morning??
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I didn’t go. Cancelled my flight to roll the dice on next week. My friends are there and they said it was wild. Texans didn’t travel well so it was just madness. Lot opened at 9 and cars arrived at 5 to get in line.
 
Wow....that was something. I haven’t seen Arrowhead like that since the early 90’s....it was so freaking loud. Sorensen stopping the fake punt then causing the fumble on the kickoff was colossal. Next Sunday will be nuts. I’ll be watching at home in HOU.
 
What a ridiculously crazy game. How're you feeling about next week Cap? Can KC slow down Henry enough?
I'm thinking if KC jumps out to a good lead, it will force Tennessee away from Henry somewhat which is probably best route to victory?
 
skanless13 said:
What a ridiculously crazy game. How're you feeling about next week Cap? Can KC slow down Henry enough?
I'm thinking if KC jumps out to a good lead, it will force Tennessee away from Henry somewhat which is probably best route to victory?
Click to expand...

KC gets a lead and it will be very tough. I’m gonna post some thoughts today. But Tannehill not in play action is bad. If they have to pass a lot and are expected to do so, it will not be good. Conversely, Titans would never blow that lead from yesterday.
 
TheHbomb said:
Andy Reid and the Chiefs, in the 1H, facing a team for a second time in a season:

22-3 SU, 20-5 ATS
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I had to bump this trend, seems even a better play this week. Especially with the chiefs coming out slow last week and this also a revenge game from last time they played. Tennessee won on a last TD. Also you would think this would play into KC game plan and want to play ahead against Tennessee since Titans are not really built to play from behind..
 
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