New Orleans -3 for me. Trey Hendrickson has practiced this week and could see some action for the Saints. he was 2nd in the league in sacks, with or without him, I think the Saints front will pressure Brady. Offensively, the Saints were unimpressive last week but that was the 1st game they had their full allotment of weapons at their disposal in a long while and I think they'll be better this week.
Payton >> Arians, New Orleans defense > TB defense + they are at home (yeah, I know)
Saints also have the best RB in this game and it is not even close.
Readily concede the Bucs downfield passing game has been superior to the Saints, esp lately, but i do not think that is the deciding factor here, esp if the Saints get the pass rush i think they will.