Divisional Playoffs

scdoggy

scdoggy

Moderator (Honorary)
San Francisco -3 -110 six units

Top to bottom Frisco and maybe Seattle, may be the most complete teams left in the playoffs. Aside from a young QB, there is nothing that this team doesn't do VERY well. They are well coached, and across the board as fundamentally sound a football team as you can find in the NFL. So unless Kaepernick completely blows it, I don't see how they don't bring home the money this week.

Green Bay is a great passing team. That's a given. But Frisco has the fourth best pass D in the NFL. And Green Bay doesn't have much of a run game at all. San Fran played four one dimensional offenses who relied on the pass this year:

Won @NE by seven as 4 point dogs
Won @NO by 10 as a one pt fave
Won vs DET by 8 as a seven pt fave
Won @GB by 8 as a six pt dog

They've done it against the best passing teams four times this year, and have done it on the road in three of those games. They'll do it again this week.

Another huge advantage for SF is their run game vs. the Pack defense. Frisco is ranked 4th in the NFL in rushing offense, and nobody (AP included runs with more attitude than Frank Gore.) The guy just runs pissed off. GB has the league's 17th best rushing defense in the league. Counting Frisco's previous matchup with GB, they have gone 6-1 vs teams with 17th or lower run defenses, and have won those 6 games by an average of 21.5 points. If you can't stop the run, Frisco is going to kick your ass.

A few other stats:

SF is 2nd in the NFL in net punting. GB is 21st
SF has a +9 turnover ratio; GB's is +7
GB is less penalized than SF
GB does a better job converting 3rd downs, but SF is better on 4th downs.

Bottom line, I see this as a one dimensional team playing on the road against a team that excels in every aspect of the game with a very short number. This should be a 4.5, and I would still play SF at that number. I see a 27-14ish kind of game
 
Doggy - NE was 4th in passing & 7th in rushing. Not exactly what I'd call one dimensional. That really only strengthens your arguement BUT remember what the Pats passing attack did to SF in the 2nd half...before the Pats in turn eventually choked. If you look at the stats in that game SF hardly shut down the pass attack. I agree with your pick but just like any team, they can be had.
 
Don't get me wrong Zeke - San Fran could certainly lose this game. But I think for Green Bay to win, they will need to force more turnovers than Frisco generally gives up. As I said before I think Kaepernick needs to have a dreadful game for GB to win.

I watched the NE game you are talking about and I probably unfairly still think of NE as a pass only offense. Teams just are more focused on Brady and the WR/TE's than stopping the run game. Pats do a good job of mixing in runs to keep the defense honest. I actually had to look up their rushing stats and you are right. 7th most rushing yards in the NFL. They do fall to the middle of the pack when you look at yards per carry though, and I still label them a passing offense.

In that game, San Fran definitely was playing off the receivers in the second half, giving Brady those 4-8 yard routes, and he burned them on two straight drives, hurrying to the line and taking very little time. Then the Niners went back to their more conventional defense, but by then the crowd was coming back alive and Brady was in a zone. I kind of throw that half of football out the window because they relaxed. You could see it on the faces of their defense. Smiling and trying to joke with Brady. Hopefully they all learned a lesson from this. Joke was almost on them.

Speaking of the Pats, Zeke - talk to me. Any reason not to play them this weekend?
 
Well, sheeeeeeeit, now I may have to bet the Niners.

If I do it will be all your fault.

Good job, Doggy.

=)
 
scdoggy said:
Speaking of the Pats, Zeke - talk to me. Any reason not to play them this weekend?
Click to expand...

Doggy - Think you saw my thoughts about the Pats in Egg's thread yesterday. They just frighten the shit out of me as faves in big games. Obviously you can't discredit previous head to head matchups when capping as it is the most true test. But take that game out of the equation (yeah it would now be in Houston but we're still in NE in this scenario), and there's no f-ing way Pats would be a 9 pt favorite. I just can't envision a team as solid as Houston getting beat by the same team by DD w/in a one month time frame.
 
Streaking, Bar, Joe, 187 - if writeups translated to cash everytime we'd all have new hobbies. I just see numerous mismatches in this one and have to take a swing at it.

Zeke - really appreciate your thoughts, and yeah - I saw your post in Egg's thread. Good stuff. Watching the games last weekend had three gut reactions (ATL, SF, and NE). Now that I've had more time to sort through these I kept Frisco - tossed the NE game out (though I may use that in a teaser) and am still chewing on the ATL game. Speaking of - here are my thoughts there:

I really hate this spot for the Seahawks, though there isn't much of a question about them being a more complete team. But go back and look at the last time this team covered road games in two straight weeks. It was over four seasons ago. I realize that Russell Wilson, and Carroll weren't around for all of this, and this team has come a long way since then. My point is more around how difficult it is to cover two straight games away from home when you are traveling from the top left corner of the country, especially playing against a team off a bye who hasn't been on the road for three weeks. As much as Seattle is a team who matches up well with ATL, this spot is just too tough for me to bet them.

I also am not sure SEA will be able to cover ATL's receivers. Especially with Clemons out. If they don't get a TON of pressure on Ryan, he will expose that secondary with these receivers. ATL has the best receivers in the league.

I do like SEA's matchup on the other side of the ball. I think they will have success moving the ball between the 20s. I worry a bit about them scoring TD's (16th in the NFL in Red Zone TD percentage). But ATL's defense isn't anything special, and I expect both teams to get their share of points.

Still digging on this one - leans are all over at this point. Strong lean to OVER, secondary lean to a mid sized play on ATL, and believe it or not I think SEA makes good teaser bait at anything above +7.

Thoughts here are welcome. I see money laying on the table with this one and I'd like to grab it.
 
Doggy - Hope you don't mind me posting my thought in your thread, nobody fucking reads them when I start my own.

ATL/SEA - kind of agree with Atlanta. People giving lots of love to a road team travelling cross country to face the number one seed. Seattle played in domes twice this year, lost to DET & STL, both teams ATL would annihilate. Seems llike they may have gotten over their road woes with the W last week & the W in CHI. Not sure if the dome issue is for real or a coincidence but the number 1 seed laying 1.5 or 2??? I'll bite. At least throw it in a teaser, hate crossing 0 but to get them at +4 sounds tastey.

NE/HOU - Just looked at the total, sitting around 47. Just a few weeks back this was in the 51 ballpark & it went over. Yes there was a garbage-time TD at the end (that I needed for my parlay) but if HOU hadn't played like complete shit they should've mustered at least 14 in that game anyways. With Gronk most likely back in the lineup, WTF does this total sitting 4 points less than the prior matchup tell us? This isn't rhetorical, if anyone knows what this means please enlighten cause it seems fishy to me.
 
Zeke - I read your threads, but you're always welcome in here. Especially love getting your local flavor on the Pats.

I refuse to cross zero on teasers, but even if I didn't have that rule, I don't think getting ATL at +4 is the way to go. I tend to think this game stays within a TD though, because ATL won't be able to grind away a lead with the run against Sea. Pretty sure I'll take a crack at the over here, and will either tease SEA or take ATL SU.

That total just doesn't make sense to me in Foxboro. First thing I did was check weather, but they are calling for springtime temps and no wind on Sun. That game just has me spooked altogether. I don't like the total at all, and I liked NE until I read your thoughts, which have me convinced its a good one to stay away from.
 
I really hate this spot for the Seahawks, though there isn't much of a question about them being a more complete team.

This.
 
Speaking of totals, I think it's time to take a look at the over in Denver.

I know that the Ravens haven't been good for them on the road this year. Trust me, I know.

However, watching that Indy/Balty game last week it became clear that even when the Ravens' defense goes all out, they're still a step slow. There's a reason Manning ate them up earlier this year and there's no reason to think he won't do it again this weekend. That forces Balty to play from behind to try to score with Denver. I don't think they can do it, but I think 30-20, 31-17, etc. is a realistic final.
 
Gauis.T - They are being pretty cryptic about Smith right now. I read something this morning from Harbaugh that said "if the creek doesn't rise between now at Sunday, he'll play at least in a limited fashion". Take that for whatever you think its worth. Of course I played this already at -110 odds and can now give the three and get +105.

Joe - I like your idea on the total in Denver, but I'm playing this a different way and taking the Denver team total over 27, which I really like. A lot. Here's why:

Denver's team totals at home this year: 38, 34, 31, 30, 34, 37, 25, 31 = average 32.5

Overall average is 30.1 pts across 16 games.

Aside from the home average being a full 5.5 points higher than their team total this week - what stands out most about these numbers is the consistency. If this were a target from a shooting range with 8 shots, you'd be looking at a piece of paper with the bullseye torn out of it. Extremely tight grouping with the lowest number being 25 across eight games, and this being the only total all season at home that fell below this week's team total. Add to this that anyone who has seen the Ravens play this year realizes that despite the continued talk about Baltimore's defense - the Ravens are a shell of their former selves on that side of the ball. You'll hear all week about how Ray Lewis is on a mission and how he had a dozen tackles last week but it won't matter. Denver isn't Indy, and Baltimore is on the road against a guy who has made a comback of his own and has shredded plenty of defenses that are better than Baltimore this season. We'll see Denver score plenty in this one. A slight worry about the extremely cold forecast (high of 20 in Denver on Sat) resulting in some numb fingers and dropped balls in the passing game, but not enough to keep me off this one. At this point wind doesn't seem to be a factor.

Baltimore's passing defense is ranked 17th in the NFL, so they are middle of the pack at best, and will face arguably this year's most efficient QB. In case you haven't been watching, here are Peyton's numbers this season:

68.6 % completion (tops in the NFL)
105.8 QB rating (second in NFL)
TDs - 37
INT - 11


Pretty good. One last stat to check out - if you are looking for Baltimore to get some lucky breaks to swing momentum their way - you are going to need to get awfully lucky. With 11 Ints this year Manning is averaging only .69 INT's per game. And Baltimore hasn't been getting turnovers all season. Ravens are 26th in the league at intercepting passes, and 29th in the league in recovering fumbles. Add to this an asterisk as 7 of these turnovers came in two games (one against Charlie Batch, and the other against Philly early in the year where the Eagles seemed to be giving the ball away to anyone who asked for it).


That's enough on this one:

Denver Team Total over 27 -110 three units
 
scdoggy said:
San Francisco -3 -110 six units

Top to bottom Frisco and maybe Seattle, may be the most complete teams left in the playoffs. Aside from a young QB, there is nothing that this team doesn't do VERY well. They are well coached, and across the board as fundamentally sound a football team as you can find in the NFL. So unless Kaepernick completely blows it, I don't see how they don't bring home the money this week.

Green Bay is a great passing team. That's a given. But Frisco has the fourth best pass D in the NFL. And Green Bay doesn't have much of a run game at all. San Fran played four one dimensional offenses who relied on the pass this year:

Won @NE by seven as 4 point dogs
Won @NO by 10 as a one pt fave
Won vs DET by 8 as a seven pt fave
Won @GB by 8 as a six pt dog

They've done it against the best passing teams four times this year, and have done it on the road in three of those games. They'll do it again this week.

Another huge advantage for SF is their run game vs. the Pack defense. Frisco is ranked 4th in the NFL in rushing offense, and nobody (AP included runs with more attitude than Frank Gore.) The guy just runs pissed off. GB has the league's 17th best rushing defense in the league. Counting Frisco's previous matchup with GB, they have gone 6-1 vs teams with 17th or lower run defenses, and have won those 6 games by an average of 21.5 points. If you can't stop the run, Frisco is going to kick your ass.

A few other stats:

SF is 2nd in the NFL in net punting. GB is 21st
SF has a +9 turnover ratio; GB's is +7
GB is less penalized than SF
GB does a better job converting 3rd downs, but SF is better on 4th downs.

Bottom line, I see this as a one dimensional team playing on the road against a team that excels in every aspect of the game with a very short number. This should be a 4.5, and I would still play SF at that number. I see a 27-14ish kind of game
Click to expand...

First off - Great Write up. :Lots of logical points here.

Let me address a few of the games you have as an example as to why you like the Niners.

Won @NE by seven as 4 point dogs. This is a legitimate factor as it was a highly anticipated match up that was to show what the future may hold this season. The 49'ers were thrashed after they had a big lead. This is just one of 2 games that they had trouble with late in the season defensively.
Teams that have ability to score, have given the SF defense trouble. They are a well balanced team but NOT when they play winning teams. I see that you didnt use Seattle as an example. In that loss they were routed by a lower scoring team in their division. Seattle outscored (26-14 avg) the division and that included a whopping 59 points on Arizona that actually inflated the scoring avg a lot. So did the 42 they put up on SF. Another fact that seems to be unnoticed, is that the Niners actually have narrowly out scored the division by a slim 19-17 advantage.

Won @NO by 10 as a one pt fave. Who wasnt beating the Ainst this season. Plus again they allowed another above average QB to score on them big.

Won vs DET by 8 as a seven pt fave
The Lions were pussy cats all season. They were worse than many trams.

Won @GB by 8 as a six pt dog. Full credit there as the Packers lost that game due to SF playing a great game. SF rushed for 180 yds and that may have been the best game they played all year, then. Now its late in the season and as they say... Its what have you done lately. Allowing the last 2 winning teams to average 38pts per game is not a good sign even if they are at home for the playoffs. Ditto for the Patriots this week against Houston..


Again good write up - and the Niners could win and cover - but thats why we gamble - because the only sure thing. is death and taxes.

Health on SF
 
Thanks for responding Playball. For the record I didn't skip Seattle out of convenience or to make my point stronger. I was comparing GB to the four other games this season where Frisco went up against one dimensional passing offenses. Since Seattle doesn't qualify here, I didn't use that game for comparison.

I think you have to give them a ton of credit in the NE game. Until the 49ers backed off and softened their defensive coverage in the second half, NE didn't do shit. I'll give you that NO and DET weren't very good this year, but they do qualify as examples of good, one dimensional offenses who rely on passing (just like Green Bay), so from that standpoint they are worth talking about.

Some good discussions on this one, and it shapes up to be the best game of the week. One parting question for you on this one - Aside from Rodgers vs. Frisco pass D (ranked 4 in the NFL), is there any other area where you think GB matches up well with SF? If there is, I missed it - and that's why I feel like SF is a bargain this week.
 
scdoggy said:
Thanks for responding Playball. For the record I didn't skip Seattle out of convenience or to make my point stronger. I was comparing GB to the four other games this season where Frisco went up against one dimensional passing offenses. Since Seattle doesn't qualify here, I didn't use that game for comparison.

I think you have to give them a ton of credit in the NE game. Until the 49ers backed off and softened their defensive coverage in the second half, NE didn't do shit. I'll give you that NO and DET weren't very good this year, but they do qualify as examples of good, one dimensional offenses who rely on passing (just like Green Bay), so from that standpoint they are worth talking about.

Some good discussions on this one, and it shapes up to be the best game of the week. One parting question for you on this one - Aside from Rodgers vs. Frisco pass D (ranked 4 in the NFL), is there any other area where you think GB matches up well with SF? If there is, I missed it - and that's why I feel like SF is a bargain this week.
Click to expand...



Sure doggy. I think that the Packers are going to play great defense against the rookie Kaepernick and thats because they now have a very healthy defense that was finally in tact for the Vikings run game. I love Gore - but he is not Peterson and will never be. With Kap at QB this will be the best shot for the Packers to rattle a rookie. If the Niners find out that they get behind early, they are absolutely one of the worst playoff teams to play catchup. Now as for a Superbowl qb who is likely the MVP in the NFC and a rookie playing against a team that has won the SB, I feel that the big game experience make the Packers too hard to pass up. The line here should have been Packers by 5 in my book. But since the public interest is all on SF I'll take the 3 with Rodgers
 
Fair enough. I agree that Gore isn't Peterson. But GB won't be able to ignore the passing game the way they did against Minny either. I also agree that the QB position is a huge advantage for SF.

I disagree about Green Bay's defense being an advantage. They are healthier than they've been in a while, but they are still a liability in the matchup department. In fact, other than the QB position, I don't see any other area on the field where I think GB can lineup and declare an advantage over SF. I also don't think the Niners are the public team here. GB will surely be the most heavily played dog on this weekend's card. I see this moving off the 3 and being able to get SF at 2 or 2.5 without having to pay to do it.

Health on this one.
 
Looking ahead to weather forecasts for this weekend's slate:

Denver - High of 19, low of 12 - slight wind at 5-7 mph..... 20% chance of snow
SF - Temps in the mid-low 40's with 5 mph wind.... no chance of precip
ATL - Dome
NE - Temps in the high 40's/low 50s, 5 mph wind.... 20% chance of rain

Aside from the cold temps in Denver, weather doesn't appear to impact totals for the weekend. Texans will be greeted with unseasonably warm temps in Foxboro. Only caveat to the above report is Denver is calling for serious wind on Friday - if that spills into Sat it would concern me on my over play for Denver.
 
Doggy - Wanted to get your thoughts on my teasers. I generally fucking hate teasers cause I think in the long run they are sucker bets but I'm a degenerate sucker. Keep in mind I play with a local so unless he gets all the numbers at once which has never happened before I'm stuck to playing one day at a time. My plays are all -110, can only tease 6 pts & ties in a teaser lose, which blows, essentially teasing to +7 (for instance) I need +8 to cover.

I tried this last weekend, didn't work but Sat due to not getting through to my guy for the GB game & Sunday thanks to the Skins turnover leading to 3 & Skins not covering the +9 teaser. In theory it's not bad though.

Tease early game with late game, last weekend all my teases were with the dogs exception of Balt. If the early game half of the tease hits, you go the opposite way on the late game. This leaves you with a 5 pt window to hit the middle & worst case you lose the juice. Saturday I'm leaning Den -3.5 with GB to +9. If Den hits I take SF -3 & hope for the middle. I feel better teasing GB than SF cause teasing SF crosses zero & my window requires a game w/in 3 pts one way or the other, no thanks.

Sunday is where I struggle. Hate to cross zero but really see Atl winning this one, getting them to +4.5 is sweet. Tell me why I should go with Sea to +8.5. Aside my from this teaser I will play Atl -2.5. Late game I'm kind of miffed on also. What's more likely for me to hit that window, Pats winning by 4-9 or Pats winning by 10-15? I know you look to me for Pats thoughts but I may not be seeing this one clearly as a fan. Kind of lean the 10-15 window cause there are more key numbers.

Thoughts appreciated man. Sorry for being so wordy but wanted to explain scenario thouroughly & this is way over my local gambling buddie's head.
 
Zeke - I wouldn't advocate this strategy at all, and here's why - risking however many units you are going to play on these games for a 5 point middle is tough. And its particularly tough in this round. The divisional round in particular is normally a round where the public gets enamored with teams who did well in the wild card round, and forgets how tough it is for a team to play at an exceptional level two weeks in a row and do it against playoff caliber team coming off the bye. Here are some numbers to back up what I'm saying:

Margin of victory in the four NFL games in the divisional rounds:

2011-12 = 7, 4, 17, 35
2010-11 = 7, 7, 11, 27
2009-10 = 3, 17, 31, 31
2008-09 = 3, 11, 12, 20
2007 -08 = 4, 4, 11, 22



So in four of the last five years, three of these games have been decided by a TD or more. I just think history isn't on your side for this kind of strategy this time of the year. But here's my two cents on the sides you are taking:

I like Denver in the early game, and you know how I feel about GB. I think the GB game is one that gets a lot of teasers fucked up, as I see Frisco winning by DD.

I think if you like ATL to win the game, go ahead and play them SU, or take them at the -140 price. Better value than crossing zero on the teaser. If you are going to tease that game, SEA is the way to go because you cover so many key numbers (3, 4, 6, 7, and 8). Plus ATL has not shown the ability to blow teams out at home this year. They win a lot of close games at home due to their relatively weak running game that can't grind out the clock when they need to, and their defense that allows teams to backdoor cover against them.

I won't offer much advice on the Pats game beceause that one has me baffled. Especially the side. I don't like what I see from the Texans on offense. I have heard this week that the return of CB Jonathan Joseph will be huge for the Texans, as he has the ability to cover the NE wideouts in man coverage. He missed the first game between these two and may part of the reason we see a lower total than in game one. I'm starting to lean under here, and will wait to see if it gets bet up to 48 (seeing a 47.5 now) as 48 is a fairly key number with totals (scores such as 21-27, 31-17, etc). My gut still says NE blows them out of the water, simply because I don't like what I see at all from Schaub right now.

Hope this is helpful Zeke - let me know if I've missed anything.

Heard something interesting today on the radio regarding the Denver game. Solomon Wilcots was talking about the cold temps in Denver (between 12-17 degrees with wind chills of 2-7 degrees at game time). Manning has been practicing with a glove and plans to use one during the game. How much experience does he have with gloves on and how much of an effect will this have on his ability to throw? Playing in Indy and Tenny in NCAA would lead me to believe he's probably only needed gloves in 5-6 games ever in his career tops. Would be interesting to see how he's done in those situations......
 
Thanks for the thoughts man.

I heard he has been practicing with the glove for awhile now & you gotta think this glove is some top of the line shit that is very near playing without one. He's definitely played some cold weather games in NE. Would be interested to see those stats though. Regardless of weather & gloves I like Den in this one.
 
Probably so Zeke. It just made me second guess that team total for just a minute when I heard it.

I've been saying how much I like the faves all week, and I REALLY like both faves on Saturday. Let's try this and see what we want to do with it on Sunday if Saturday's games hold up

ML Parlay - Den, SF, ATL, NE +306 one unit
 
There we go. Number jumped a point in Foxboro. I'm getting a touch of this now and want to see how high this climbs:

HOU/NE Under 48.5 one unit
 
SC : I like the 49ers as well today, however what worries me is the injuries they have on defense....49ers offense will need to put 30+ up to get us the win & I think they can do it vs the Pack "d" GL on ur action always
 
Disagree Cash. I think this game is low scoring with niners winning 27-14ish

SF/GB First Quarter under 9 -120 one unit

Waiting to see if this gets bet up. I will be on full game under as well.
 
Thanks guys. Cash - you nailed that over. I shoulda listened.

Nothing for me in the ATL game. Like I said earlier, SEA is the better team, but I hate this spot for them. Lean over, but Sea stalls inside the 20 too much.

Under in Foxboro today. That's it.
 
scdoggy said:
Thanks guys. Cash - you nailed that over. I shoulda listened.

Nothing for me in the ATL game. Like I said earlier, SEA is the better team, but I hate this spot for them. Lean over, but Sea stalls inside the 20 too much.

Under in Foxboro today. That's it.
Click to expand...

Zactly...
 
But then again, we're all degenerates at the end of the day right BAR?

ATL TT first half over 12.5 -120 half unit
 
scdoggy said:
Thanks guys. Cash - you nailed that over. I shoulda listened.

Nothing for me in the ATL game. Like I said earlier, SEA is the better team, but I hate this spot for them. Lean over, but Sea stalls inside the 20 too much.

Under in Foxboro today. That's it.
Click to expand...

I liked the OVER alot SC because of you I also jumped on the 49ers for 5+ units . I like your Atl TT over play , gl on the action always
 
Cash, Irish - thanks.

So I'm already invested in the under in Foxboro at a bad number (48.5). I'll take more at the current 51. I think Jonathan Joseph playing this time will keep NE from putting up a basketball number, and I really should be betting that Pats here. Don't see how anyone can have faith in Schaub and co putting up more than about 20 points today. NE wins 31 -13.

Hou/NE Under 51 -110 one unit
 
Doggy, hope you pulled the trigger with the Pats. Sorry I may have had something to do with convincing you otherwise. I ended up making a drunken homer play on them, needed the garbage-time FG to cover -10 but got it.

Got my ass handed to me taking Den-10 & -4 in a teaser. Fine defensive effort by the mile high bunch, fucking clowns.
 
Nahh, Zeke - laid off NE. Should have gone with my original plays (Denver over and San Fran) as those along with all the overs were really the best plays on last week's card. The Baltimore side was luckier than it was good as I don't think even the Baltimore bettors figured on Flacco throwing up jump balls again and the defense letting Baltimore catch them. The Sea/ATL game could have gone either way, and NE almost let the backdoor cover unfold.

I will probably be on something this weekend, but nothing really jumping out at me. Lean NE again this week as I feel Baltimore has gotten extremely fortunate two straight weeks. If they don't get another lucky game, NE covers.

In the NFC game as good as Kaepernick looked last week, let's keep in mind he has to go play on the road, in a dome and play just as well. For as much of a paper tiger as everyone knows ATL is, the value is on them at +4 as this team just finds ways to get it done at home. But not sure I like either side enough to bet it. My +700 Niners SB bet will probably be enough to give me a strong rooting interest here. The under has my interest in the dome. Frisco's defense should keep ATL honest - and I don't think the Niners will duplicate last week's offensive output.

Much tougher card than last week IMO....
 
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