Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
MIN/ATL
Vikings have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Falcons have a meh P/RB matchup.
Dobbs? has a great pressure rate matchup, and the best pass potential --- keep in mind these stats were via Cousins. Mattison? has a bad run potential.
Heinicke has a bad pass potential --- keep in mind these stats were via Ridder.
Vikings TTR is 19th (bad).
Falcons TTR is T-9th.
Pace of play is T-2nd (good), O/U Rank is T-9th (last/bad).
- Injuries - MIN - On D, DE Lowry (48%) is out, LB Davenport (42%) is out for 2nd week. On O, obviosuly no QB Cousins/WR JJ.
- ATL - On D, DE Jarrett (75%) is out, S/DE Hellams/London are out (low snap % players). On O, WR London is out, FB Smith (24%~) is out.
It is hard to gauge these offenses, because the season numbers are without either of these starting QB, but we do have cheap options, with rising floors due to injuries, so for tournaments, there are at least options...
Idk if it counts for anything but Halls 4 pass attempts were split between Hockenson/Osborn. He is below the typical floor of starting QBs in price (which is 5K), and if the vikings don't deviate to much from their identity, they are one of the top teams in pass/run ratio, which also falls in line with ATL's DVOA numbers (see Levis last week......). Mattison is still the starter, and looks to be the pass script option as well... my problem is Akers does get goalline work, his 17 opps last week was just with 1 target (and a terrible <2ypc).... I can't trust it, pass. I think these WRs are appropriately priced so really it is about what salary relief you need --- my gut says to avoid Addison because I like the WRs around him more, but most people are thinking the same thing, and could create some leverage, so I get it. Osborn has a 20% target share in the 3 games without JJ, with an ok aDOT of 7.76 and is probably a more reliable option than those chasing Shaheed from last week. Powell is practically a floor price dart thorw/salary saver in a lineup if mass entering, but idk if I go here. Hockenson has a huge 27% target share without JJ, and a decent aDOT of 6.93, and they priced him cheaper than he has been all year, yes.
Heinicke has to be a boost to this offense.. in one half of football (with a neutral to positive pass script) he had 21 pass atempts, and his aDOT was 9.67, compared to Ridders 7.77 --- both of which give better chances at production for those around him. Bijan, like last week, is way to cheap for a guy who sees over 70% of snaps, is T-1st for % of routes ran per dropback (he had 3 targets in 1 half of football with Heinicke)... I hope he goes low owned, as he will be popular with me ----- yet again..... Ummm I know this is weird to say, but it might be van jefferson season.... While london played just 54% of snaps last week, here was the breakdown for the rest of the players, Jefferson/Hodge/Miller/Hollins, 71%/43%/34%/21%, all 4 of these WRs are almost floor priced, while I think anyone of them can exceed value and 4X+ their salary, I'm going with what is most likely, whcih is Jefferson --- he had a 15% target share last week (obviously played the most snaps), with nice 13 aDOT, all 5 of his targets came from Heinickie in 1 half. I do think most people go to Pitts here (or maybe Joonu), and I get it, but I'm going to fade that ownership here, it's a small sample size of course, but they were targeted a total of 2 times in the second half, and like I said, I think 90%+ of people chasing the london injury value, fall here.
ARI/CLV
Cards have a bad P/RB matchup.
Browns have a great P/RB matchup.
Tune has a bad pressure rate situation, and the worst pass potential --- keep in mind these stats were via Dobbs (although that may matter the least).
Walker? has a meh pass potential. Ford? has a great run potential.
Cards TTR is 20th (bad/last).
Browns TTR is T-5th.
Pace of play is 4th (good), O/U Rank is 8th (bad).
- Injuries - ARI - On D, DE Strong (56%) is Q. On O, C Colon/T Wilkinson are out, RB Demaercado is out. WRs Dortch/Wilson are Q. Kyler? may be back.
- CLV - On D, CB Newsome (88%) is out, DE Wright (23%) is out.
I know newsome is out, and tune/all ARI pieces are cheap, but the matchup is just so bad. I'm not chasing McBride, I don't want to take Ingram, Hollywood I guess is cheap enough for having a double digit target ceiling + 11.62 aDOT on the year. If Wilson is out, Moore would be almost a min priced WR option, he is a short aDOT guy, so could be a reliable target for a rookie QB with probably no time in the pocket... If Kyler is in, my interest does rise.
In a neutral game last week, 3 RBs played between 31 and 35% of snaps... wtf, can't trust any of that, and I hope others break on doing a CLV RB + D. Weeks 1-3 with Watson, Cooper/Moore both had a 25% target share, and cooper had a sick 16.12 aDOT. He is a tournament slate breaker candidate imo, while I'd rather have him over Moore, Moore is sooo cheap for his role too, his aDOT is worse at 7.76, but nobody in that price range has a 25% target share, and I really don't hate either. Njoku was so bad with Watson, and while he has come on off late, he has 3x'd his salary just once, I'd rather go somewhere else at TE.
LAR/GBP
Rams have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Packers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Stafford? has a great pass potential. Freeman? has a great run potential.
Love has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Rams TTR is 16th (meh).
Packers TTR is T-9th.
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is 7th (bad).
- Injuries - LAR - On D, LB Jones (94%) is out, and CB Durant (77%) is Q. On O, QB Stafford/WR Nacua are Q.
- GBP - On D, S Savage (83%) is out, LB/S Walker (83%)/Ford (99%) are Q.
Freeman/Henderson are in a 50-50 split...Freeman has 0 ppr upside, so pass. Henderson seems fine at his price point, he has a good matchup on paper, is averaging 17.5~ opps/g with 2.5 targets/g... if stafford plays and struggles with deep throws, it could be dump off city, don't hate him in a couple lineups. In the 4 games since Kupps return, he has played every snap, and has a massive target share of 33.33%, and an ok aDOT of 9.63, he is the cheapest he has ever been this year, and the concern of staffords thumb, and a somewhat down b2b games may keep people off, I'll note 2 things however, Nacua comes in 1.1K heaper, and is virtually the same player, as he has a 32.5% with an 8.65 aDOT, so I get it if you want to go here instend, but the other thing I wanted to note, is there is a chance he does not play, if that's the case, we have a HUGE amount of targets that need to be dispersed, and massively elevates all others, which include Kupp, as well as Atwell, who has the best aDOT of the 3 at 12.92, but just a 10.5 target share, I may go overboard on it if nacua is out. You can make the arguement that Skowronek will become an 80%+ snap guy too, and he is floor priced. I want to say I don't care about Higbee, but he does run a route on 79% of dropbacks, T-3rd among TEs, his target share is whatever at 14%, but his aDOT isn't bad at 7.19, he's really cheap, and again if Nacua is out, you have to assume he gets a chunk of that 33% target share.
We've seen Jones snap count rise since his return from 36% to 51%, and while he only had 12 opps, he did have 5 targets (and did so in his 36% snap game too), he is starting to get cheap, and we can only assume his snap% rises/usage, I think I'd rather be ahead of it then behind it. I know his return has been bad, but Watson being cheaper than Doubs is laughable. he has played a touch more in his 3 full games, he has a higher target share 19.8 to 17.82, and a way better aDOT of 16.55, to 10.39... he is a slate breaker waiting to happen, and I'll take another shot again on him. I think Reed is a good punt/salary saver option, he just saw a season high 78% of snaps, his aDOT in games with Watson is still great at 13.67 too. Musgrave has seen a drop in routes ran since the start of the year, a slight drop in target% with the big 3 WRs healthy (and I guess jones too), and a big drop in aDOT in that same scenario, to 2.6... Higbee is practically same price, and better statisically, pass here.
WAS/NEP
Commanders have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Patriots have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Howell has a meh pressure rate situation. Br. Robinson has a meh run potential.
Stevenson has a bad run potential --- these are slightly influenced to pre chase young departure numbers.
Commanders TTR is T-13th (meh).
Pats TTR is T-5th.
Pace of play is T-2nd (good), O/U Rank is T-4th (meh).
- Injuries - WAS - On D, LB Barton (100%) is out, S Forrest (100%) is out for 3rd week --- they've traded DE Sweat(70%)/DE Young (85%), and S Butler (100% last 2 weeks) is Q. On O, T Charles is out. WR Samuel is out.
- NEP - On D, 6 Q players. On O, no WRs Parker/Bourne, Thornton is Q. T Anderson is out.
I have 0 interest in Br. Robinson, in the last 2 weeks, in negative run scripts, he has seen under 50% of snaps, and averaging 10.5 opps (1.5 targets).... gibson played a touch more last week and had 7 opps (5 targets) --- I think patriots win this game, and 5 targets is gibsons floor, I don't mind him as a cheap salary saver tourney option in a couple lineups but idk how much I go here. I think a lot of volume is incoming for these catchers and it is slightly more boosted too with the absence of Samuel, so I don't have any issue with either of the 3 (Mclaurin/dotson/thomas), but in relation to McLaurin/Dotson, I think most will chase last weeks performance, and despite not performing better, McLaurin led the 2 in targets, aDOT, and snaps, so I lean that direction. Thomas numbers look decent at a 16%~ target share last week, and a 6.63 aDOT, which matches his season, but when you play for the team with the #1 pass/run ratio in the league, the target share means that much more...
Stevenson last 3 weeks has a 15~ opp average, with more than 5 targets/g, yes please. Zeke is at 9~ opp avg, with less than 1 target/g, pass. Now I hope WAS can keep up a bit, to keep this competitive, and not let Zeke get like 2+ plodder TDs, otherwise I think Stevenson is a steal at this price. I really really really want to fade Douglas, I just don't know if I can. The guy faces no competition, lead the WRs in snaps last week, has 13 targets in last 2 weeks (22%+ target share), I guess his aDOT is trash at 4.85, and there is a likely scenario that the Pats pass volume is suppressed, On a side note, Juju should see increased time, Reagor saw his first action, Thornton may be back, Boutte is finally back since week 1 (where he played 70% of snaps and had 4 targets --- in a game with Juju/Bourne/Douglas). I know Douglas is going to be extremely popular, and I haven't decided what I want to do yet... my gut says fade/play Boutte maybe. To many mouths to feed at TE this week, and Gesicki went from 60/50 to 28% in 3 weeks, I think it is because they prefer Brown as a blocker when needed, and if the script is not pass favored, I don't like it, passing altogether.
CHI/NOS
Bears have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Saints have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Bagent has a bad pass potential. Foreman? has a good run potential.
Carr has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Bears TTR is 18th (bad).
Saints TTR is 3rd (good).
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is T-4th (meh).
- Injuries - CHI - On D, S Brisker (91%), LB Edmunds (94%) is out, CB Smith (62%) is out for 3rd week. On O, G Davis is still out, WR St. Brown is out, and QB Fields is doubtful.
- NOS - On O, RB Miller is Q.
This backfield looks unplayable. Last week 4 of them ranged between 21 and 36% --- gross. I'm hoping Roschon can solidify himself, as he did run a lot of routes, and had 4 targets, but so did Evans, and he had the TD too, we can't trust it for DFS. With Bagent, Moores target share has dropped a little to 23.81%, but it's his aDOT that is worrisome, as it is just 4.8 it the 2 starts together (weeks 1-6 it was 12.67/25.77%). His price has came down, and they should be in a pass heavier script, I don't really like it. I do however thing Mooney at almost min-price is an interesting tourney play in a couple lineups, he has just a 12.7% traget share, but his aDOT is nice at 12.13, gets RZ targets, and plays just as much as Moore. Kmet is just to expensive for a 16%/5.3 aDOT guy, when we have guys priced a bit below him with same/better metrics, pass.
Look Kamara has been great since his return, I wish I had him in redraft leagues... and despite what I am about to say he had 22 opps last week (5 targets) --- which was arguably his worst stat line. BUT, Kamara costs top dollar (most expensive RB), he played a season low 58% of snaps --- and this was in a neutral script, both Taysom/Jamaal steal goalline work... do we think Saints more likely play from behind/neutral/ahead (I/vegas leans neutral to ahead), I just see to many red flags, especially when he may be in a slight downtrend, and is unlikely to even 3X this salary. If you take out the 2 weeks carr got hurt/playing with the bum shoulder, Olave has really good metrics --- 27% target share, and a 13.27 aDOT, that's a recipe for fantasy success. While Shaheed has been really good at HR upside, him being almost the same price as Thomas is slightly disrespectful --- in the saints 4 wins, his playing time/targets is limited, imo thomas or nothing. Idk what to do about Taysom... he has had a stretch of games with just 3 points, and that what he is doing now , which is good double digits.... my issue is that with Juwan Johnson back, he went from 8, and 5 targtes, down to just 1... so if he doesn't get you TDs on the ground, he can easily dud you --- while being the most expensive he's been all season, I think I'm going to full fade here.
SEA/BAL
Seahawks have a bad P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Geno has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Lamar has a meh pressure rate situation. Gus Bus has a good run potential.
Seahwaks TTR is 15th (meh).
Ravens TTR is T-1st (good).
Pace of play is 11th. O/U Rank is 3rd.
- Injuries - SEA - On D, LB Nwosu (70%+) is out.
- BAL - On D, S Williams 90%+ is Q to return after a 1 game absence. On O, T Moses (80%~) is doubtful.
We just absolutely can NOT play Walker.... last week was practically a neutral script throughout, yet he had just 10 opps (2 targets), and a 41% snap count!?!? Did he quietly get hurt, or is this an insane changing of the guard, without mention. Look, it is a tough matchup regardless, but Charb played 59% of snaps last week, and had 7 opps (2 targets) where he almost had 10 yards per touch.... I'm not saying to go overboard... but maybe taking Charb in a lineup or two can pay huge dividends if this holds true. JSN is unplayable if both Metcalf/Lockett are in. In the 6 games they played together, Metcalf has better numbers, 24.1%/12,68 aDOT, to 22.56%/10.52 aDOT, and he isn't priced that much higher... while I think you can play either, I lean Metcalf... Keep in mind it is a tough matchup, but in all of BAL's wins, they've hit at least 24 points, so I do think they should see him excess volume. Pass at TE, they play 3, and while fant is the true receiver of the 3, you can't trust it.
Gus bus had 21 opps (3 targets) in a supreme matchup, and I faded it...and I'll continue to do so.. he splits time with hill, has really no ppr upside, and imo is still a candidate to be vultured. At WR it feels like a crapshoot... in games with all 4 healthy, bateman can definitely be crossed off, and while agholor has a similar target share, he does get home run shots, with his 15.63 aDOT, but his usage is in the decline, so cross off. OBJ has actually had his season highs in snaps since week 1 (at just 57%) but it translated to a 21% target share, and a good aDOT of 11.82 --- at 3.8K, and on the team with the #1 TT, I think he is actually an ok dart throw.... Flowers leads the core in targets, but his aDOT is reverting back to his early year numbers... I still think he is viable, and is pretty cheap, but I'm throwing in OBJ too. Weeks 2 through 8, Andrews has a 22.7% target share, with a good aDOT of 7.49... it is a nice combo, and I think he can always be played, but he is expensive, and I feel like even Hockenson has the same range as him, so I am debating on being underweight, but I get it either way.
TBB/HOU
Bucs have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Texans have a meh P/RB matchup.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. R. White has the worst run potential.
Stroud has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Singletary? has the 2nd worst run potential
Bucs TTR is T-13th (meh).
Texans TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is T-5th (good), O/U Rank is 6th (meh).
- Injuries - TBB - On D, DE Hall (61%) is out, S/DT Izien (56%)/Vea (60%) are Q. On O, G Feiler (85%) is out.
- HOU - On D, S Murray (43%) is out, DT Rankins (61%) is Q. On O, no TEs Jordan/Quitoriano/WR Woods/RB Pierce. C Patterson (99%) is out, and already missing C Green (44.5%).
I think this game is one of the sneakier shootouts of the week, as TBB can't run in general, and have a much better pass matchup, with a good pace, and HOU can't run/I think they could be playing from behind
R. White is averaging almost 80% of snaps, he is T-1st for routes run per dropback among all RBs, he has hit atleast 6 targets in his last 2, and is just 5.6K, totally playable. Evans/Godwin are practically equally priced, but taking out the game Evans hurt himself, he has a great target share, 25.24% to 21.84%, and a much better aDOT of 13.31, to 8.82 --- if you want to take Godwin, go for it, but Evans is the bigger ceiling/upside player, and I'll be more overweight him. I'll just mention palmer, since truly taking over the role week 3, he has an 11% target share, with an aDOT of 13, so maybe one-off him if mass entering and possibly game stacking this game, not sure if I will. I'm obviously a fan of Otton if you read this thread, he is T-3rd in routes ran per dropback among TEs, he is cheap, he plays almost every snap, but he just isn't seeing many targets with a 12% target share, and an ok aDOT of 5.83, if you want to use him in a game/team stack ,that's fine, idk if I'd one-off him though.
Singletary had 12 opps (2 targets) on 40% of snaps, if he is projected to be more of the bellcow he can be played at 4.3K, not sure I do though because I hate the matchup, and if he doesn't get 3+ targets he might suck it up, but I get it. Last week Collins/Dell/Brown all played 72 to 78% of snaps without woods. Collins led in both target share, 25%, and aDOT, a massive 16.17 --- he did fail in a popular smash spot, and if that scares people I'll be overweight, however... I have interest in Brown as well.. .he is 3.1K and had a 21% target share and a 10 aDOT. I will not be playing Dell as he was bottom in all 3 categories, but still expensive relative to the others. (17%/5.25). I am torn on Schultz because HOU is missing their TE2 and 3, and last week he hit 21% of targets, but he is the 5th priced TE, and had a terrible aDOT of 1.4 --- I think I'm fading, but not totally sure yet.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
IND/CAR
Colts have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Panthers have a good P/RB matchup.
Minshew has a good pressure rate situation. Taylor has the best main slate run potential.
Young has a meh pass potential. Chubba? has a meh run potential.
Colts TTR is 4th (good).
Panthers TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Ranked is 2nd.
- Injuries - IND - On D, CB Flowers (100%) out for 4th week, CB Brents (90%+) is out, LB Franklin (100%) is doubtful, S Thomas (100%) is Q. On O, WR Downs is Q, T Smith is out.
- CAR - On D, LB Houston (42%), LB Gross-Matos (50%), S Chinn (52%) are all out (CB Horn/LB Thompson have been out), and S Bell (100%) is doubtful, CB Jackson (84%) is Q. On O, WR Chark is Q.
A ton of defensive injuries on both sides, with a game that has great pace, and a ton of value options. Yes please.
It looked like something happened to Taylor right before half, but apparently all parties say he is fine... he still played his season high 61% of snaps, and I will be going right back to him this week. Downs continues to be the odd man out for me in this offense, with Minshew he has a 23% target share, with a 7,89 aDOT, those are ok numbers, but there are people around his price with more upside imo. While Pittmans aDOT is only a bit better at 8.28, he has a much better target share at 28%, I don't really care for his price, but I'll use him in game/team stacks. I'll say pierces name again, because he is due for a HR hit, he has just a 14% target share, but his aDOT is big at 15.29 and he is almsot floor priced. CAR has a ton of injuries, maybe today is the day? The TEs here are a crapshoot, pass.
Hubbard has officially been announced the started and is averaging about 72%~ of snaps the last 2 games --- my concern is he still has just an 18.5~ opp avg, with just 1.5 targets/g, he is just 5K so he is obviously playable, but I'd like to see a higher PPR floor. I've obviosuly been fading Thielen for ages, and it has bit me all year... but he is now an absurd 7.5K on DK --- this has been in a stir, because this is the week to fade that price, but this is also the week he will be his lowest owned... and he has broke 30+ points in DK (which is 4x+) atleast 3 times already.... not sure what I do with him just yet... but I will have me some Mingo, in games with him and Young, he has just a 17% target share, but a good aDOT of 11.5, chark is Q, and colts have been burned my perimeter WRs all year... he is in the 3Ks... taking my chances here. Hurtst is cheap enough, and colts have been bad to TEs, but he just has an 11% target share with Young, so I don't know if you have to go here outside of game stacks.
NYG/LVR
Giants have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Raiders have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
D. Jones? has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Garop has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Giants TTR is 17th (meh).
Raiders TTR is 12th (meh).
Pace of play is 10th, O/U Rank is T-9th (last/bad).
- Injuries - NYG - On O, TE Waller is out/K Gano are out. But Ts Thomas/Neal are Q, best news they've had all year at that posiiton?
- LVR - On D, LBs Deablo (80%+)/Masterson (62% last week)/Mauga(back up LB) are all out, and LB Spillane (98%) is Q. On O, T Munford is out, FB Johnson is out.
Barkley has seen 3 straight games of increased snaps since his return, and is coming off the biggest opp performance of the year (I believe) with 41 (5 targets) --- now I don't think he gets there, but even the 2 prior weeks he averaged 22.5 carries/4.5 targets --- He is going to have the best Oline sicne his return, as well as danny half-a-penny back... I think he is in an absolute smash spot for a Raiders D that is severely hampered at the LB position. Weeks 4/5 is probably the most similar comparison this offense has had in regards to jones/wr core, in those 2 games Robinson had a 20% targets share, but a poor 2.5 aDOT, Slayton was the deepest aDOT candidate, both of these guys also played 80%/99% of snaps respectively last week, oh and this is the first week Wallers 22.5% target share is now missing.... I think both Slayton/Robinson are good almost floor priced options.
I'm not entirely sure what I want to do with Jacobs, but I'd have to think this new coach wants to get him and Adams involved early and often... and either way, Jacobs has been a workhorse, going over 20+ opps in 5 of his games, and not seeing lower than 4 targets since week 1, I think he is an ok play solely because he probably doesn't get scripted out --- and I do think they play from behind. If you take out week 2 when Meyers did not play, Adams/Meyers are both 90%+ snap guys, but adams leads in target share, 30% to 24.5%, and aDOT, 11.13 to 10.3 --- while I think you can go in either direction, I much rather go to adams. I'll note, renfrow saw 61% of snaps last week, had a 19% target share, with an ok aDOT of 7.5, he is floor priced, which you can't really find anywhere. I don't think Mayer is a bad punt/salary saver option, as he really has become the starter in the last 3 weeks, where he has had a good aDOT of 9.08, coming over a 90%+ snap game... imo worth a one-off if you want.
DAL/PHI
Cowboys have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Eagles have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Dak has a good pressure rate situation and a good pass potential. Pollard has a meh run potential.
Hurts has the worst pressure rate situation. Swift has a good run potential.
Cowboys TTR is 7th.
Eagles TTR is T-1st (good).
Pace of play is 14th (meh/last), O/U Rank is 1st.
- Injuries - DAL - On D, 2nd week without LB Vander Esch (88%). On O, T/G Smith/Edoga are Q, TE Hendershott is out.
- PHI - On D, CB Roby (45%) is out for 2nd week, S Evans (100%) is out for 3rd week, and CB Maddox is still out. On O, RB Scott/TE Calcaterra are out, C Jurgens may? be returning.
I still want to believe in pollard, and I have said this for a couple weeks now, but Dallas loves to play in extremely positive or negative scripts that hurt true production by 2nd halves of games. I'm not going to be overweight, and this is obviously a tough run matchup, but I do think this game should be closer than most of their games, and he could be a sneaky tourney option. We know PHI should be attacked through the air, Dak has been really hitting a stride of late, and we just saw what Lamb can do in spike weeks. He is absolutely playable, I have a feeling I'll be underweight the field though, I do like Gallup, who actually has a better target share in games with Cooks while they both have virtually the same aDOT --- oh and he is cheaper. Ferguson seems to expensive for what he actually has been doing, but I know he does get a ton of RZ looks, so I get it... but even in games without Hendershot, he has just a 12% target share, and an ok aDOT of 6, his target share actually drops if you just look at his last 3 games, where he played his most dates to date... I'll pass.
I think Swift can do well any week, with slate breaking upside, but unless he hits a TD outside of the redzone, I think he will bust you more than boom you, so I'll pass. AJ Brown is having an MVP season, with a 31.5% target share and a great aDOT of 13.17, I won't talk anyone off playing him, as he is the #1 WR on the team with the #1 team total... Smith seems a bit expensive, but I can be convinced, he has a good aDOT too at 12.11, but his target share is just 22%. Goedert is too expensive for me to consider as a one-off, but I get it in game/team stacks, as he does have an 18% target share, but his aDOT is meh at 5.21, I'll mostly fade.
