Primetime games continue with injury/pulled player fuckery... feels like its at like a 85%+ clip. Anyways.
Just getting the template down, hopefully have this done tonight/tomorrow morning or else this is what you'll get as I won't be around much sunday.
1PM Slate/Main Slate
NEP/NYJ
Pats have a meh P/RB matchup.
Jets have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Z. Wilson has a meh ASR matchup, Robinson? has a good ALY matchup.
Pats TTR is T-13th.
Jets TTR is 17th.
Pace of play is 13th overall, 9th in MS. OURank is T-9th in MS.
- Injuries - NEP - On D, a ton of Q's. On O, Starting C Andrews is out, a couple of WR Q's.
- NYJ - On D, a couple of Q's. On O, we know no RB Hall, or OL Tucker, also still w/o OL mitchell for 4th week, and it'll be there 5th week without OL Fant, all 3 of which were Wk 1 starters. No WR Davis either.
- Overall, this is NOT a game we stack, and I don't think its a game we really one-off either. A case
could be mad to play a RB + DEF here, but I wouldn't want to stomach it. Stevenson saw his snap count dip to a still respectable 77%, but he failed to hit 100 yards, and that was with most of his yardage coming in garbage time (which is I also think that snap count may come even lower after another week of Harris rehabbing his ailment(s)). They don't have the greated matchup, the OU stinks, and the pace stinks. I will say, Meyers played 100% of snaps, he only had 2 targets, but that can typically lead to spike weeks (see Campbell), but I'm not counting on it here. Parker was #2, Thornton #3, but that was without Bourne who may be back. Henry saw a respectable 85% of snaps, but saw less targets than Jonnu, pass.
In reference to RB + DEF, it could be done this way too. I don't think I will, but if robinson sits, or is expected to be very limited, Carter could see 70%+ of snaps, and has a solid PPR floor, plus he's cheap. The WRs should also see a bump in usage with Davis and his 14% share of targets, as well as almost 40% of air yards on this team is now vacant. I can see the reason to one-off wilson/moore, but please limit it if you do. Conklin saw 26% of targets last week, but him and Uzomah see 60-70%+ of snaps, and that number is sure to come down, if you want to PPR play him, go ahead, but again... again... I think I'm going to stay away.
CAR/ATL
Panthers have a great P/RB matchup.
Falcons have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Foreman has a great ALY matchup.
Panthers TTR is 20th.
Falcons TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is 10th overall, 7th in MS. OURank is 8th.
- Injuries - CAR - On D, Semi play DE Anderson is out for 2nd week, a few Q's. On O, OL Eiflein out for 2nd week. RB Chubba is out.
- ATL - On D, CB Terrell is out, S Hawkins is out, CB Hayward out for 2nd week.
- Ok so I know the TT's suck, and the pace sucks... but we have some good matchups/concentration. Last week Foreman had 17 opportunities on 54% of snaps, and his direct counterpart who played 46% of snaps, and had 12 opportunities is now out. I'm not saying he now reaches 29+, but I think its reasonable to think he reaches atleast 25 opportunities in this game, and he is extremely cheap, he quietly had 7.9 YPC too, which may be unsustainable, but he has a great DVOA matchup, and a great ALY push. I may just lock him in. Moore is the other concentration, the guy played 100% of snaps for the 3rd time this year (2nd best snap count in the league), and saw a whooping 47.6% target share last week (10 targets). He had a decent aDOT/r of 7.7, but 6-50 seems like his floor, and he's also priced cheap. Marshall seems to be the deep threat replaced of anderson, he did see 85%+ of snaps last week, and would maybe be a pivot of mine off moore in A lineup. Someone out there that much at 3.5K seems smart to play. They played 3 TEs, none had more than 1 target, pass.
Fucking falcons, they've burned me a ton. Everyone just saw (and look at post #1), that a cincy stack last week WITHOUT an ATL bringback was smart. Everyone and their mothers are talking about how they just don't throw the ball, and if they didn't down 3 possessions, why would they start now? I think they go SEVERELY underowned, and Pitts is getting into borderline free territory price wise. I can't stomach another dud, but my head is telling me to go much overweight here, but I can't do it.. I will have a few CAR team stacks, and a couple CAR/ATL game stacks, but just a couple (with london or pitts). Allgeier saw a season high 62% of snaps ---- in the worst possible script imaginable ----- and had 16 carries... would it shock me this year if he had a 100+ -2+ game this year, no. But he gets 0 targets, and has a stupidly low floor. pass.
CHI/DAL
Bears have a meh RB matchup, and bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a good RB matchup, and meh P matchup.
Fields has the worst ASR matchup (and it's not even close).
Dak has a great ASR matchup. Pollard? has a good ALY matchup.
Bears TTR is 21st.
Cowboys TTR is 4th.
Pace of play is 10th overall, 7th in MS. OURank is 7th.
- Injuries - CHI - On O, OL Whitehair out for 4th week, T Borom is out, and G Patrick is out, 3 season starters missing.
- DAL - On D, CB Lewis is out, a couple of Q's. On O, TE Schultz/WR Brown are Q. RB Zeke is doubtful.
- From a bears perspective, as much as Fields may have a decent floor with his legs, I can't think he and the 2nd to last TT in the slate can perform well here. The averaged ASR is 13.55%, #2 on the slate is 8.8%, it's massive. You can't trust the backs here, as herbert keeps showing what pollard has been showing in that he deserves to stay/play, I guess you can hope for a PPR floor at WR, but I can't/wouldn't. Maybe kmet and his 90%+ snap count, since he's almost priced at the minimum.
Dallas baby, the defense should be one of the highest owned, and rightfully so. If zeke is indeed confirmed out, Pollard joins Foreman as the value boom options you may not be able to play without (definitely the cash game locks), he has a real chance at 30+ opportunities, but atleast 25. Lamb still sees a ton of the target share, and saw his aDOT/r spike with Dak. I see a Dak+PollarD+lamb kiind of stack possible, but I'd rather do more of the Pollard+DEF here, and less of the stack, as the game could get out of hand imo. But if you think Chicago keeps it close, and you go with Dak and Lamb in some fashion, I do think you'd want to have a CHI bringback, because I think the only avenue for them to be optimal is if chicago can keep it close (which makes me actually like Fields + Lamb a bit actually)... but I'd limit that, and just go with pollard, differentiate elsewhere.
MIA/DET
Dolphins have a great P/RB matchup.
Lions have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Tua has a good ASR matchup.
Goff has a great ASR matchup.
Dolphins TTR is 1st.
Lions TTR is T-6th.
Pace is 5th overall, 4th in MS. OURank is 1st.
- Injuries - MIA - On D, S Jones is out, CB Needham out for 2nd week, some Q's.
- DET - On D, DE Harris out for 3rd week, S Elliot out, CB Hughes out for 2nd week, backup CBs Melifonwu/Lucas are out, S Price is out, and don't forget S Walker got hurt and has been out for 4+ weeks. On O, St. Brown is Q.
- This will be 1 of 2 massively stacked games of the main slate. We have great matchups, solid ASR's for both QBs, top OURank/TT's, and a good pace. Lets start with the big 2. Hill/Waddle both play about 80% of snaps, Hill sees a massive 11 targets a game to waddles 7, but surprisingly Waddles aDOT/r is 10.4 to hills 8.8, and he has more RZ targets. I'm not saying to take one over the other, but there's a serious pricing gap between the 2 and it makes it easy to fit waddle in. I'd even try to get both. You can make the arguement that the steep Hill price will keep him lower owned, but this slate has enough value plays that he will be properly owned. Both can and have been slate breakers in the past. Gesicki has quietly logged b2b games with 7 targets, going 4.5-48-1 average in those 2 games. He is pretty cheap, and could be a 1 lineup pivot off of the big 2, but I'm not doing it.... it's worth noting that Durham Smythe was out of the lineup in both of those games, and he isNow lets get to value back #3. Raheem Mostert. Since really being the lead back (wks 4-7), he's averaging 19 opportunites a game, 3.25 targets/g, a solid 4.9 YPC, His first full game back with Tua since those weeks, last week, he had 21 opportunities and got over 100 total yards, despite having one of the worst ALY matchups of the week. I think he sees a positive game script, and can be considered with Foreman/Pollard, or as pivot's off of them.
I think swift goes underowned, I just mentioned 3 backs that are all much cheaper, and can easily be veiwed in the 20-30 touch range, but if Swift is all chains off, he can be optimal. The guy does it all, and even though its a limited trajectory, he was on pace to be the RB1 to start the year. I almost want to take a wait and see approach, but I may have to take him in at least 1
. My other bringback options depend on St. Browns health, as that would open up Reynolds for more. Hockenson quietly has a 20% target share on this team, and a decent TE aDOT/r of 6.9, to go with 1.18~ rz targets/g.
ARI/MIN
Cards have a good P/RB matchup.
Vikes have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Kyler has a meh ASR matchup. Connor? has a meh ALY matchup.
Cousins has the best ASR matchup.
Cards TTR is 10th.
Vikes TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 1st. OURank is 3rd.
- Injuries - ARI - On D, LB Gardeck is out, DT Lawrence is out, LB Vigil out for 3rd week. On O, C Hudson out for 4th week, G Garcia out for 2nd week. RB Conner is out, WR Hollywood obvi still out, Dar. Williams is Q.
- MIN - Nothing really.
- In 2 games without Conner/Williams, Benjamin has played an averaged of 80% of snaps, great for a RB, but he's only averaged 17.5 opportunities a game. This isn't terrible but we have 3 other options (Foreman/Pollard/Mostert), and none of those options have a QB that can vulture, and a backup (ingram) that can vulture, plus there's a chance williams returns. I'd rather limit my exposure to him at best despite a great pace/OUrank. DHop returned last week and immediately saw a 92% snap count, and had 14 targets (1 RZ) (48.3% target share) with a decent aDOT/r of 8.7.... he is all systems go IMO, and someone I'll play if I can afford it. Moore unfortunately had 2 targets on 89% of snaps, I think he can be a homerun hitter, but I'd assume Anderson will rise in snaps a bit and eat into it, imo either 1 can be pivoted/one-offed as a contrarian play, but limiting it. Ertz does continue to see RZ targets, so he has some upside, he saw just 4 targets last week, but is still one of the safer TE plays.
Cook saw his season high 87% of snaps before the bye, he unfortunately had just 14 opportunities... I think those can't coexist over the course of a season. If we can expect him in that range, I think his number can go to 20+, and seeing a 100+-1+ game isn't out of question. I prefer the passing game here, but I think with people going cheapies, he can be a leverage over the small 3 at RB this week, with the hopes he massively outperforms them, or one/two of them fail. The vikes have been playing 2 TEs a lot. Vikes play 2 TEs, both get pretty shallow targets... I think they're cheap enough to consider, if you get liek a 4-30-1 from irv smith, it could be very nice, and you'll get exposure to this game, and cousins looks to have time in the pocket in this matchup, but I'll be limited at best. Sorry osborn, I won't be playing you, because I want me some Jefferson. I will say though, both of these WRs are exactly the same, minus the fact that Jefferson sees 3.3~ targets more a game, but Jefferson seems to get the ball in space and get YAC, while Theilen seems to just fall down after catching it (or catch contested balls where he's immediately tackled). the two had aDOTs of 7.7/7.9, and RZ targets of 10/9. Give me either, but I obviously prefer jefferson.
LVR/NOS
Raiders have a good P/RB matchup.
Saints have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Jacobs has the best ALY push.
Dalton? has a good ASR matchup. Kamara has a good ALY push.
Raiders TTR is 5th.
Saints TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is 12th overall, 8th in MS. OURank is 2nd.
- Injuries - LVR - On D, CB Hobbs is out, a couple of Q's. On O, TE Waller/WR Hollins/Adams are Q.
- NOS - On D, CB Lattimore is out, CB Roby is out, and CB Williams is out for 3rd week, OUCH. On O, WR Landry/Thomas are out. TE Trautman/Johnson are Q.
- Man on man. We have the saints without 3 CBs, and we have a Q tag/injury designations all over the receiving corp. If Adams plays, he'll be a priority for me, and may even have a pivot of a hollins, sorry renfrow. Adams gets 32% of the target share on this team, which equates to 10.5 targets a game where he's over 2 RZ targets/g, he has a good aDOT/r of 9.2, he realistically could see 9-90-2, and argue the catches/yards is a floor giving the backfield issues. I will say, Hollins is like a baby adams, he's seen just as many snaps, has a better aDOT/r of 12.2, and sees 1 RZ target/g, he's at a 16.2% target share on the season, and shouldn't be immediately crossed off your list. If Waller plays, he has a good TE aDOT/r, and sees 6 targets/g, almost 2 of which are RZ/g... he can be considered too. Now what do we do with Jacobs, in the last 3 games, he's averaged 80-89% of snaps, and has had a massive 28 opportunities a game, with 5 of those per game opps are targets. He continues to have a massive floor with upside, but he's finally priced up. I will regret this, but I'll be limited here, and let others chase his past week performances, there's just other options I'd rather have, but he won't be crossed off for me.
Kamara is another nice floor guy, in his 5 games, he is seeing 22.5 opps/g, where a 3rd of them are targets... that's safety with upside too. Same argument as jacobs, I'll have him, but not as much as I probably should. I'll have interest in a juwan johnson type IF trautman is out. With no Landry/Thomas, and maybe even with them, Olave is the clear cut #1 option. He sees almost 10 targets a game, almost 1 rz target/g, and has a sick aDOT/r of 13. Can Callaway/Trequan hit one? Sure, but there's so much salary relief and they don't even come close to the same floor/ceiling as olave.
PIT/PHI
Steelers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Eagles have a meh P/RB matchup.
Hurts has a good ASR matchup. Sanders has a meh ALY matchup.
Steelers TTR is 22nd (last).
Eagles TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 4th overall, 3rd in MS. OURAnk is T-5th.
- Injuries - PIT - On D, CB Wallace is out for 2nd week, DT Ogunjobi is out, DT Leal is out for 2nd week.
- PHI - Nothing serious.
- Najee is beginning to get very cheap, but rightfully so. Pit has the worst TTR. but the pace is good, the DVOA matchup is good for him, but I think I'll hope for another clunker, and then back him in a better spot. He's only averaging 3~ targets a game, when that number was higher was when he was valuable. Friermuth is alright, but Gentry is cutting into him a smidge. He is cheap enough, in a game where they'll be forced to throw most likely. Pcikens/Claypool/Diontae all play 80-95~ of snaps kind of, claypool is my least favorite, pickens is still pretty cheap, and of course cheaper than diontae, idk if i'll have either, but I get it.
Brown/Smith is another duo where there almost similar, Brown has a bit higher target share, aDOT/r, and RZ targets, but he's also rightfully priced higher, I think either can be played, and it would get you part of the offense with the #2 TTR, problem is 7 different people can score on this team. Sanders since week 3 on has seen 60-75% of snaps, in that span, he has almost 21 opportunites a game, which I'd like to see a bit higher, but the bigger problem is his measley 2 targets/g average. It takes away from his floor, PLUS, we've seen gainwell vulture, as well as hurts. He can easily go 100+-1+, but he can also go with 0 tds, and under 80 yards.... the matchup isn't great, and there's so much better options out there. Pass. I like goedert, he has one of the best snap shares for a TE, but he gets such shallow targets, and only averages 6 a game, I think he could be played, but I'd rather look elsewhere.
4PM Slate/Main Slate
TEN/HOU
Titans have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Texans have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Henry has a great ALY matchup.
Pierce has a meh ALY matchup.
Titans TTR is 12th.
Texans TTR is 18th.
Pace of play is 14th overall, 10th in MS. OURank is T-9th.
- Injuries - TEN - On D, DE Weaver is out. On O, Tannehill is Q.
- HOU - on D, DE Greenard and Dwumfour both out for 3rd week. On O, Cooks/Collins are Q.
- Alright, my only interest on the titans is a good one, and its Henry. The guys averaging 25+ opportunies a game, 3 of which are targets, he has a great DVOA matchup/ALY matchup, they're faves, they're top 5 in run play %, and we just saw what jacobs did to this D. He has slate breaking upside and saw his best snap % last week.
I don't want pierce here, he only saw 52% of snaps last week, and that potential is here again this week. We need to see whats happened at the WR position. Collins should be out, and if cooks is too, I'll definitely have some interest in Dorsett, he should see his snap % go up, and I think they play from behind against a meh secondary.
WAS/IND
Commanders have a meh P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Colts have a great P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Heinicke has a bad ASR matchup. Ettienne has a bad ALY matchup.
Taylor has a bad ALY matchup.
Commanders TTR is 19th.
Colts TTR is T-13th.
Pace of play is 6th overall, 5th in MS. OURank is 11th (last).
- Injuries - WAS - On D, CB Jackson III out for 3rd week, LB Holcomb is out. On O, TE Turner is out, WR Dotson is out. TE Thomas is Q.
- IND - On D, DE Paye is out for 3rd week.
- I don't think I want any of this wash offense. The backfield is a committee, and we have way to good options. I will say Mclaurin plays almost every snap, and sees just under 7 targets a game, with a decent aDOT/r of 9.8, he can always hit one too, but probably pass outside of a game stack.
Taylor has a bad matchup, and in a mostly neutral game last week, upon returning from injury, he saw just 55% of snaps and he doesn't come at a discount. Pass. Pittman and Campbell continue to be 100% snap guys, but Pierce actually hit 97% too, Colts are #2 in pass play %. Now will this take a dip with a new QB, I'm not exactly sure, especially with the run game failing IMO. The pace is decent, and I've heard this can has wheels too, and is priced at the minimum.... I think its worth a couple of lineups to play him with or without a pass catcher. I know I'm passing at TE already, but which WR do we pair him with if we do? Pittman leds in targets, and is in the middle in aDOT/r, solid option, Pierce is the aDOT/r leader of the 3, but least targets, home run hitter?, Campbell just had the explosive game, and will probably be overowned, so I'll pass on him this week. Plus if this guy has legs, I want the guy thats going deep.
SFO/LAR
49ers have a meh P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Rams also have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Stafford has a bad ASR matchup, Henderson has the worst ALY matchup.
49ers TTR is 11th.
Rams TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is 15th overall (last), 11th in MS (last). OURank is T-5th.
- Injuries - SFO - On D, DE Armstead out for 4th week, LB Greenlaw is out, CB Moseley is out for 3rd week, DT Kinlaw/LB Al-shaair still out. On O Deebo is out AND FB Jusczyk.
- LAR - On D, 2nd week w/o CB Haley. On O, 3 OL are still out that were week 1-4/5/6 starters are out. They are returning CB Hill, and WR Jefferson.
- The pace stinks here, and there's no great matchup. I don't want henderson, I still don't want CMC as he's the highest priced, and we don't know his role yet. I wonder if the 49ers without jusczyk will actually do more checkdown plays as opposed to run first, I guess that could bode well for CMC. Jennins will see a snap increase without deebo, but Aiyuk should see more, as well as Kittle. IF we think the 49ers play from behind, which is possible, Kittle becomes extremely interesting. In the 2 games where they were playing neutral/positive game scripts for throwing, Kittle saw 9.5 targets/g, 1.5 rz targets/g, he also plays atleat 90% of snaps too... he'll be on my list.
Idk what to do with the rams. I don't want the backfield, jefferson returning clutters the receiving corp minus Kupp. I don't think I can stomach any other player. Kupp as a massive 12 targets/g average, he has a sick floor because of it with upside... problem is he's expensive, and there are other possible slate breaking areas... maybe I'll try to fit him in a lineup or two, but that may be it, or maybe a Stafford - Kupp + Kittle, but I think that's getting cute, and don't think its necessary.
NYG/SEA
Giants have a good P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a great P/RB matchup.
Jones has a bad ASR matchup.
Walker has a great ALY matchup.
Giants TTR is T-13th.
Seahawks TTR is T-6th.
Pace of play is 9th overall, 6th in MS. OURAnk is 4th.
- Injuries - NYG - On D, LB Ximines is out for 2nd week, CB Flott is still out, LB Ojulari is still out, S Jefferson is still out, DT Davidson is still out, CB Robinson is still out. On O, no shep, no more toney, no golladay, no TE bellinger. 2 starting 5 OL are out, G Bredeson, and T Neal.
- SEA - On O, somehow Lockett AND Metcalf are gametime decisions. RB Homer expected to be activated too.
- First off, this game will be a bit wet/cold/windy.
Ok so I'm not taking barkley, sorry. With no Bellinger, Myarick/Hudson will split duties, pass. Slayton/Robinson can be considered. Robinson had 8 targets last week, but an aDOT/r of 2.3, yuck. Slayton had 6 targets, and an aDOT/r of 17.3, yum. Call me crazy, but the qb slate isn't to threatening with no Allen/Lamar/Burrow -- Brady/Rodgers/R. Wilson(joke)... and IMO, Jones plays from behind, has a banged up Oline, and a bad ASR matchup, I think he will have a solid rushing floor, and has some upside if he strikes 1 or 2 to a slayton type, mixed with a rushing td. He finished as the QB3 last week, with just 202 passing yards. I think its reasonable to take him in a lineup or two.
I won't be taking Geno despite a good TTR, he has both of his top WRs game time decisions, I think they play with a lead, and I'd rather one-off goodwin in maybe a lineup if you want exposure to him doing well. But I doubt I go there. Walker is still cheap enough on DK, he's seen his snap count go up in 3 straight weeks since taking over the backfield, and in those 2 full game weeks, he's had 23.5 opps a game. Now he doesn't get much targets, which stinks from a combo perspective, but he has a sexy ALY matchup/DVOA matchup, in a game I think they lead in. so seeing 100+/1+ isn't unreasonable, there are also a ton of options out there, so I won't have as much exposure as I normally would, but he's still a really good option
