1PMs Sunday/Main Slate
LVR/CHI
Raiders have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Bears have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
O'Connell?? has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Jacobs has a bad run potential.
Bagent? has a meh pass potential. Foreman? has a great run potential.
Raiders TTR is T-11th.
Bears TTR is 19th (meh).
Pace of play is 12th. O/U Rank is 10th (bad).
- Injuries - LVR - On D, 3 CBs are Q, Hobbs (93%), Hall (64%), Bennett (77%), as well as DE Crosby (97%). On O, WR Adams is Q, and QB Garop.
- CHI - On D, CB Smith is out (62%), S Jackson (100%), DE Ngakoue (74%) are Q. On O, QB Fields is doubtful, RB Herbert is out, while Homer/Roschon are Q. G/T Davis/Wright are Q.
I mean we don't know the situation yet for the raiders QB, but all are pretty cheap, and in a great matchup, I don't hate the idea of pairing one with an Adams/Meyers (at a minimum) in tournaments. Adams has a great 31% target share, with a good aDOT of 10.92, I feel like he is usually underowned when comparing the other juggernauts in his price range, but if you have conviction, and want to take him, I won't stop you. Finally Meyers is over 6K... he does come considerably cheaper than Adams, and in his 5 games, he has a 26% target share, and a 10.09 aDOT.... does not that seem extremely similar to Adams? It is hard not to just go to Meyers when you account for the price savings. Mayer is priced way to cheap, to the point where you can't really talk negatively. He has increased his snap count significantly in 4 straight weeks, hitting 81% last week, and his aDOT is 8.09, both really solid... my only gripe is his route run rate has been realllllly low on the year, but maybe the last 2 weeks is a changing of the guard. My gut says to fade the leverage but I'm unsure. Jacobs had a season high 30 opps last week (5 targets), He is averaging about 80% snap count, and after week one has not had a single game under 5 targets..... without doing much of anything, his floor is double digits, and his ceiling is as high as anyone's, Raiders really have a concentrated offense, as the RB2/WR3 (and even the TEs before last week) are rarely ever used, all 3/4~ guys mentioned should be considered in this matchup.
We normally don't want to go crazy or entertain CHI backfield, but we have concentrated usage, injuries giving us cheap value RBs, and no Fields to vulture + new QB. I think they lean more towards the run while they can, and Foreman can definitely be considered, he ran well last week, it is concerning for PPR sites to trust just 1 target, but I'd still keep him in. Bagent did go 10 for 14 in replacement of Fields, so if you want to be different and play him with a pass catcher for strictly tournaments, I get it... but do know, he practically came in down 2 scores and less than 1.5 quarters remaining, so idk. It is hard to take season numbers with a new QB, but if Bagent is a bit of a better passer than fields, mooney and the cheapies could be good darts --- I probably won't do it. I will note however of Bagents 14 attempts, 6 went to Moore (43% target share in a tiny sample size)…. he would be the direction I lean towards.
CLV/IND
Browns have a good P/RB matchup.
Colts have a bad P/RB matchup.
Walker? has a bad pass potential.
Minshew has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Taylor? has a meh run potential.
Browns TTR is 10th.
Colts TTR is 17th (meh).
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 8th (bad).
- Injuries - CLV - On D, CB Newsome (84%), & LB Walker (84%) are Q. On O, TE/RB/QB Bryant/Hunt/Watson are Q. G Dunn is out, and G Bitonio is Q.
- IND - On D, CB Flowers (99%) out for 3rd week. On O, TE/WR Granson/Pierce are Q. T Smith is Q.
Ford played 50% of snaps last week, and still finished with 19 opps (2 targets), and that was vs a tough SFO D, where they actually played in a slightly early negative to neutral run script. Hunt played just 37% of snaps, ,is nursing an injury, and was used less, despite being practically equal in price. I think Ford is a fine option. Watson looks like a go, and If you think this game offers some shootout potential, which feels weird to say, you should consider a WR here. In the 3 games with Watson, Cooper and Moore both had a 25% target share, but Coopers aDOT was elite at 16.12, while Moores was 7.76, idk how roster construction will go, as they are priced appropriately, I prefer cooper but fine if I need to chip down to Moore. DPJ had a 10% target share with a 10 aDOT... while I think he can have a game in him at somepoint this year, I probably don't take the chance here. I will note, he does see the field more than the other guys.... so hopefully it doesn't bite me. While I love that Njoku is like an 80% snap guy, his target share is 11% with Watson, with a meh aDOT of 4.6, but his price is the lowest it has been all season, I don't think I go here, but I'm ok if you want too.
Minshew had 4 turnovers to just 1 passing TD, and he still 3X'd his salary. Could you argue that that is an absolute floor of a statline most weeks? I think so, and I also think he will go unplayed in tournaments because of the perceived tough matchup to go along with the poor performance last week. I do think they play from behind, they like to play quick, and he attempted a massive 55 pass attempts last week, and still in both of his starts his average is 49 pass attempts. It also doesn't hurt this is a dome game. With that kind of projected volume, he can support multiple PPR players. I've said this many times, but Downs is my least favorite, and while Pittman keeps making me happy, Pierce keeps making me upset. In Minshews 2 starts the statline of the 3 are as follows, Pittman/Downs/Pierce, 26.6%/21.28%/13,83%, and the aDOTs are 8.36/5.55/18.54 .... Give me the steadier/deeper guy in pittman, or the extremely cheap hr potential in pierce. If you add weeks 2 and 5 (where minshew replaced Richardson), Pittmans target share grows to 29.5%, he is practically guaranteed double digit targets. I think Moss and Taylor are both showing to have good PPR floors, but they aren't priced to cheap, and we still aren't sure how much bigger of a role Taylor is going to get. Moss dropped from 80 to 50% last week, while Taylor went from 15 to 42%.... if this is a 5050 split, it'll be tough guessing... if you want to dart one in a tournamnet, I won't fault you, not sure I will, despite a path to 6+ targets.
BUF/NEP
Bills have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Pats have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Mac Jones has a bad pressure rate situation, and the worst pass potential. Stevenson has a meh run potential.
Bills TTR is 3rd (good).
Pats TTR is 20th (last/bad).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is 6th (meh).
- Injuries - BUF - On D, DTs Oliver(74%)/Jones (39%), and LB Milano (69%)/CB White (85%) are still out. CBs Elam (95%)/Lewis are Q. On O, no TE Morris/RB Da. Harris.
- NEP - There's like 400 people Q. I'll note CB J. Jones looks to be returning from IR. On O, WRs Boutte/Juju/Douglas are Q, TE Henry is Q.
4.9, 3.2 (9.2), 7.6 (13.6), 9.8, 9 (15), 14.9, Look I love Diggs, I think he is having a great year, but he is 8.9K, and pats have done an ok job at limiting opposing WR1s. They've gone against these 6, Aj Brown/Hill/G. Wilson/Lamb/Olave/Adams, the average FPs with just their receiving lines are 11.23 (8.23 if we take out the 3 total TDs). Even if Diggs doubles that, he may not give us a good return on our investment, and it makes me want to fade him. Gab Davis is always a tourney option, he has a massive 14.87 aDOT on the season with just a 15% target share, but he would never surprise you to get 2+ 50 yarders, not a bad pivot if fading Diggs, as the bills do have the 3rd best TTR. The WR3 Shakir/Sherfield just aren't playing/utilized enough to consider.. and with kincaid back, it probably means more 12? personnel (double TE). Speaking of the 2 TE's, weeks 1-5 they practically share a tar%, but knox doubles his aDOT, and is $200 cheaper... he'd be the only route I'd go. James Cook seems unplayable... if you want to try and get cute, and hope for a big game, go for it... it is a tournament after all, but without Damien Harris last week, and in a fully neutral game script, he played the same amount of snaps as Murray, and had 0 targets, the one RZ drive Murray was in, and Allen has vulture potential too... he is way too expensive. Murray is so cheap, I won't fault you to go here for salary relief and hope for at least 1 TD, I most likely won't go here, as his ppr floor is pretty low, but again, it doesn't take as much for a 4.4K player to pay off.
It took them a couple weeks, but they remembered Stevenson can catch balls. People are making noise about Zeke over him, but he had 65% of snaps last week, and finished with 16 opps (6 targets).... he is still to cheap, and will be in my player pool. We have to take a wait and see approach at WR.. pats had 3 out last week, so it was easy to find bourne but all 3 are now Q.... I don't mind bourne in a vacuum, but with at a minimum a healthy juju, it becomes cluttered. Gesicki finally matched Henry's snap count, and both of these TEs have really good te aDOTs just under 10, oh I forgot to mention... Henry may miss this week and Gesicki is cheap!
WAS/NYG
Commanders have a great P/RB matchup.
Giants have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Br. Robinson has a great run potential.
D. Jones? has the worst pressure rate situation. Barkley has a bad run potential.
Commanders TTR is 9th.
Giants TTR is T-15th (meh).
Pace of play is 10th. O/U Rank is 6th (meh).
- Injuries - WAS - On D, S Forrest (99%) is out for 2nd week.
- NYG - On D, LB Ojulari (57%) is out for 2nd week, CB Jackson (91%) is Q. Are we ready for this? G/T/C/T/G Ezeudu/Peart/Schmitz/Thomas/Lemeux are all out for NYG, and T Neal is Q.... all have played between 10% and 65% of snaps. QB/RB Jones/Barkley are Q.
I think Thomas is cheap enough to consider, I wish they dropped his price from last weeks dud... but either way. He has an ok aDOT of 6.52, and in his 4 full games, he plays almost 80% of snaps, and has a 17% target share. In 2 of those games (not last week of course), he hit at least 8 targets. The problem is, I think the commandeers play with a lead, and if Howell isn't throwing it 40+ times, idk if I can click him. Kind of the same reason I'm not completed sold on the WRs. McLaurin is priced to close to Dotson and has a better target share and aDOT, and samuel is practically the same as dotson but is a touch cheaper... I'd go Mclaurin > Samuel, no Dotson if I had too/you want too. In the commanders 3 wins, Robinson has had a 55%~ snap count, a double digit FPs floor, and 2 of the games he had over 20 opps... he is in the 5K range of RBs in what is, imo, a great projected script. He will be in my pool.
Barkley came back and immediately jumped to 78% of snaps... he had 29 opps (5 targets) anyone with that is elite, and a safe floor. My problem is his price went up (rightfully so), and this matchup is brutal. Even last weeks 29 touches equaled under 14 FPs... that wouldn't even 2X his salary. BUT if he gets a TD, you are going to be in trouble with not playing him, not sure what I want to do, but I lean to be underweight. I personally hope Jones sits one more week, so no reinjury happens..... but either way, these NYG WRs are cheap, and I think they'll have to throw. The last 3 weeks has really started to shape out the NYG WRs, and it looks like Slayton/Hyatt/Robinson are the 3. Hyatt has to be off the list, as the prices are not that gapped, and while his aDOT of 12.5 looks good, it actually doesn't beat slayton, and his target share is bad. Do you want PPR safety in Robinson with his terrible 3.4 aDOT but 22% target share, or do you want potential HR with Slaytons 12.77 aDOT, and 14% target share. I lean Slayton, but I can see why Robinson can mkae sense, especially with the Oline issues maybe not creating time. I think Wallers metrics look solid, he's already burned me a bunch this year, but he has a 22% target share, and an 8.24 aDOT, if you want to look at the last 3 weeks to equal the playing field with who really are the starters right now, he has seen a greater target share of 23%~, with still a good te ADOT of 7.33.... if you want to take him as the only player in this game I don't mind it either... he plays 90%+ of snaps and runs a route on 73% of dropbacks.
ATL/TBB
Falcons have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bucs have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Ridder has a meh pass potential. Bi. Robinson has a meh run potential.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. R. White has the worst run potential.
Falcons TTR is 18th (meh).
Bucs TTR is T-11th.
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- Injuries - ATL - On D, LB Andersen (95%) is out for 4th week.
- TBB - On D, LB Nelson (39%) is Q to return after missing 1 week, DT Vea (61%) is Q.
Bijan has been pretty disappointing but the guy is coming off a 21 opp game, where he played the most snap% to date, and runs a route on 67% of dropbacks.. not only is that the best among RBs, but there is only 2 above 53%.... In all but 1 game he has had at least 5 targets. And TBB has this persona of being a good run D, but it hasn't been that great/I think it is actually very skewed. Wk1, MIN abandoned the run, Mattison went 11 for 34, 3.1 avg. Wk2, CHI abandoned the run, Herbert/Roschon went 11 for 67, 6+ avg. Wk3 PHI blew the doors off, 30-173, Wk4 NOS abandoned the run, Kamara went 11-51, 4.6 avg, Wk5, DET abandoned the run post Montgomery injury and Reynolds went 10 for 15.... while Allgeier has seen a ramp up since a slight lull in wks3/4, he has no ppr floor/safety and may need 2+ TDs to be strong, pass. Last 2 weeks, and with the addition of Van Jefferson, no WR2 has hit 50% of snaps, pass. If you think ATL plays from behind (I do a bit), then London can always be considered, he is cheap, has a 21% target share, and a fine aDOT of 10.43. Pitts is still my preferred passing option if we go this route. Joonu's price isn't that far apart, has a lower target share, and lower aDOT. Just want to note about Pitts, his target share is ranked 10th among TEs, but his aDOT is an insane 11.37, in the top 30 TEs in target share none are in double digits and both Henry/Gesicki are the only ones even in the 9s. He has as much upside as anyone.
R. White is 5th among RBs in snap count, he is actually the other RB with Bijan (so #2) in routes ran per dropback, while I think his matchup is pretty shitty, he arguably has had the worst gauntlet to start the year (MIN/chi/PHI/NOS/DET --- I think he is a good buy low in redrafts), He is just 5.1K, nobody at this price barring a vault in production due to injuries has the kind of volume potential he has, with a safe-ish PPR floor, I have no problems if you want to take a shot in tourneys. The DVOA matchup is good enough to consider a Baker + Receivers stack, but I'll note ATL has been pretty stubborn at giving FPs to WRs. Either way, Evans/Godwin garner a big target share on this team (50%), While I think godwin can get there, I can't get myself to take him over evans when they are similarly priced, and he has the smaller aDOT/Target share. Otton is by far my favorite TE play of the week. He is 2.9K, runs a route on 78% of drop backs (good for 6th best among TEs), plays practically 100% of snaps, and has an okay TE aDOT of 6.06.
DET/BAL
Lions have a bad P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a bad P/RB matchup.
Goff has a good pressure rate situation.
Lamar has a meh pass potential.
Lions TTR is 14th (meh).
Ravens TTR is 6th.
Pace of play is 13th (meh/worst). O/U Rank is 5th (meh).
- Injuries - DET - On D, some big names out for 4+ weeks now, otherwise healthy. On O, no RB Montgomery, and Reynolds is Q. On O, G Jackson (82%) is out.
- BAL - On D, S Williams (63%), some other names out 4+ weeks now.
If Reynolds is out, I'll obviously have all the interest in the world for Gibbs, when given an opportunity, he has shown to have at least a safe PPR floor. If Reynolds is in, I have some issues. I think his usage would obviously be lower, he will still be very high owned, he isn't cheap, it's a tough matchup, and if they are playing with a lead, his ppr safety/floor feels like it'll drop lower. I'm not saying he still can't succeed, but for tournaments I think there is some value in semi fading. We had our first week with both J. Williams and St. Brown in, and Brown/Reynolds played 91/81% of snaps, while no other WR even hit 30%. If you want to make the case that Williams will see more playing time, and the 4th quarter was played in a negative pass script, I can get behind it, and he obviously had a massive aDOT, 23.33.... I probably won't have though. In his 5 games, St. Brown has a massive 30.3% target share, but with just a meh aDOT of 7.46... but when your floor is practically 10 targets, 100+ is always possible. if you want to, go for it. While LaPorta feels a bit to expensive, he leads all TEs in target share, and has a good TE aDOT of 7.57, the matchup is tough, and he feels a bit pricey, so not sure how much I even go here.
While gus bus got the bulk of the work last week, and he is under 5k, we are just never playing a balty RB.... he has a 0 target floor, lamar and hill+co are vulture material, and the matchup sucks, moving on. Obj/Bateman see less playing time than Agholor, and Agholor gets deeper targets. They seem unplayable. I'd save agholor strictly as a punt/salary relief option in no more than a couple of lineups. Flowers is the trusted WR. I mentioned last week how his aDOT is misleading with his 0 depth peppered game or 2 early in the sseason, but it has improved as the weeks have gone on, and his target share on the season is 28%, which is not common for under 6K players, this number held true even last week when the WR core was all healthy... Andrews is a stud, in his 5 weeks, he has a 23% target share, with a good aDOT of 8.06, lions have been very susceptible to TEs too --- I feel like I like to many TEs this week... maybe it's time for a flex TE winning week? idk.
4 PMs Sunday/Main Slate (Cont.)
PIT/LAR
Steelers have a good P/RB matchup.
Rams have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Pickett has a meh pass potential. Najee? has a meh run potential.
Stafford has a bad pressure rate situation. Evans? has a good run potential.
Steelers TTR is T-11th.
Rams TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 4th (good). O/U Rank is 4th.
- Injuries - PIT - On O, no TE Freiermuth.
- LAR - On D, DTs Brown (40%)/Murchison (20%) are out. LB/CB Jones(96%)/Kendrick(96%) are Q. On O, WR Skowronek is Q, RBs Williams/Rivers are out.
Najee is just unplayable until further notice. He lost his PPR safety this year, and plays at most 55% of snaps. Warren on the other hand has been more efficient, he has a PPR floor (seeing no fewer than 3 targets in every game, hitting 6 THREE times), the last 2 games he flirted with 50% of snaps, most of the year, and I do expect PIT to be playing from behind. Idk if I get cute, but I guess if mass entering, having him in a lineup or 2 gives you some salary relief, with 15+ point potential if he hits a TD. Pickens numbers have been so good, I'd fully recommend him at this price, but with Diontae coming back, I have my concerns, despite playing just 43% of snaps due to injury week 1, he had 6 targets, and an aDOT of 13... at 5K, with no injury designation, and what I think will be a positive passing script, I'd rather go to him than Pickens at 5.5K, but I won't fault you if you like one over the other and I understand the logic of pickens still being the #1. Pass at TE, they play 2, none had an aDOT over 4.5.
Getting this backfield right will make or break you. Is it going to be Gaskin/Evans/Freeman? All are extremely cheap (2 floor priced) --- we know the rams like to have a workhorse, I lean Evans as the guy, but I won't fault you for full fading it back here too. We know the rams love to pass, as they are 5th in pass/run ratio, and already didn't throw it to the backfield often the last 2/3 weeks (or since Kupps return). I'm not sure what I'm doing here yet, my lean right now is to full fade the ownership. In Kupps 2 weeks, he and Nacua make up 70%!!! (INSANE) target share on this team. Kupp is massive at 38%, more than anyone probably ever, and that's to go with a good aDOT of 11.9. He is super expensive, but 10+-100+ seems to be the absolute floor, and locking in atleast 24~ points (100 yd bonus) doesn't seem like a bad idea. I mention Nacua, because in a vacuum, 33% target share last 2 weeks would still be better than the rest of the league (although others have been better in that 2 game stretch), at 7.6, and coming off a dud performance, he may be under owned, and has as good as a ceiling as anyone. Atwell seems to be the HR hitter, but his 10% target share drop is bad, and I'd rather go else where. Higbee has been an afterthough as well, and he isn't cheap enough to even consider, pass.
ARI/SEA
Cards have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Seahawks have a great P/RB matchup.
Dobbs has a meh pressure rate situation.
Geno has a great pass potential. Walker has a great run potential.
Cards TTR is T-15th (meh).
Seahawks TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is T-2nd.
- Injuries - ARI - CB/S Williams/Baker are returning from IR. LB Woods (60%) is Q. S/CB Thompson/Hamilton are out. On O, T Wilkinson is out.
- SEA - On O, RB Charb is Q but not expected, and WR Metcalf is GTD. T Lucas is out.
We can't trust this backfield, while all are under 5k, they played all 3 last week, demarcado led with 43% of snaps, but only had 3 opps. (lol what?), I guess he would be the sneakier tourney option? idk. I'm most likely passing. Hollywood brown has some pretty elite numbers, as he has a 28% target share, and a great aDOT of 13.25 and runs a route on 87% of drop backs, he is WAY to cheap at 5.3K. Ro. Moore makes no sense when Wilson is priced practically the same and are on extreme ends of aDOTS (13.95 to 2,08)... he also plays less than Wilson. I like to many TEs this week, and Ertz saw his biggest drop off in snap counts, they played 3 last week, pass.
We know walker is a slate breaker, he had a season high 76% of snaps last week, while increasing his snap count in 3 straight games, his direct back up of chrabonnet is likely to be out, they are big faves, in a great run/dvoa spot. he will be popular but rightfully so. If Metcalf is out, JSN could make a lot of sense, especially considering this is a 4PM start, so many will be weary of it, or not adjust lineups post news. It is the only way I'd have him. If Metcalf is in, I still prefer him to lockett, as his aDOT is much better, and traditionally sees more RZ targets.... plus again, the injury concern may keep his exposure down. We can't play any TEs here until injuries, or something clearly changes (all 3 played between 42 and 45% of snaps last week).
GBP/DEN
Packers have a great P/RB matchup.
Broncos have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Love has the best pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Russ has a meh pressure rate situation. Jav. Williams has a good run potential.
Packers TTR is 5th.
Broncos TTR is 7th.
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is T-2nd.
- Injuries - GBP - On D, LB Walker (80%)/DT Wyatt (52%)/S Savage(88%)/CB Alexander (92%) are all Q, LB Campbell (62%) is D, CB Stokes is returning. On O, RB Jones is Q.
- DEN - On O, TE Dulcich back to IR.
If Jones is in, I think he is a fine play, there is some uncertainty, and he doesn't come cheap, so there is risk, but for tournaments, I get it. In Weeks 4/5, where he didn't play much in 4, Watson had a 17% target share and a MASSIVE 19.82 aDOT.... he not only has HR upside, I do think he is the WR1 here. While I like Reed, his snap count is a bit to reduced now with a healthy WR core, pass. Doubs still needs to be mentioned/considered, he plays just as much as Watson, has a great target share of 27% in those 2 games, with an ok aDOT of 9.06, but he comes very cheap too. While I like other TEs, Musgrave is 3.3K, plays enough, has a good TE aDOT of 7.7, and it is a solid matchup, if you want to pivot here off the popular WRs... I get it, not sure how much I will.
I really really want to play Jav. Williams, but his 35% snap count last week with 0 targets concerns me. I do think it does ramp up a bit more, and the broncos do dump off a lot, but there is risk here. Perine is a hard pass, as McLaughlin was the back who led last week, and if you want to get cute/sneaky, go for it. I want 1 of Sutton/Jeudy, as I think this game can either be a sneakier shootout, or at least a positive pass script. Their metrics are just good not great, as Sutton has a 23% target share with an ok aDOT of 9,88, Jeudy has a 21% target share, with a 12.1 aDOT, I lean jeudy as he is the cheapest he has been all year, and I feel like he has more explosive upside. Passing at TE.
LAC/KCC
Chargers have a good RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Chiefs have a good P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has the best pass potential.
Chargers TTR is 8th.
Chiefs TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Injuries - LAC - On D, S Gilman (100%)/S Woods (28%) out fort 3rd week, and S James (100%) is a GTD.
- KCC - On D, CB Watson (48%) is out. On O, WR Watson is out. --- not a typo.
This will be the most popular game stack matchup of the week, and rightfully so, as the pace/total/matchups all at least look good.
Ekeler had 20 opps and 68% snap count... his 6 targets makes for an absolutely solid floor, but he costs 8.6K, and I think faded most of the high exposure may be a better route, as he may still be more limited than typical. While I love Allen, in the 2 weeks without mike williams, He and Palmers stats are as follows, 26.23%/24.59%, and 12/14.4 aDOT.... you save almost 4K going to palmer over allen, and the metrics are arguably in his favor (even if it's just slightly)... give me palmer all day. Johnston still barely gets to 50% target share, but he has HR potential if you want to dart throw/salary relief in a couple entries for tourneys. Not taking any TEs here unless doing a big game stack, but Parham > Everett for me. as he has a deeper aDOT and gets RZ targets.
Kelce is always playable, as nobody at the position has bigger upside, and relative safety too, he has a great target share of 25% (despite being in and out of the lineups mid games due to injuries), with an ok aDOT of 6.46, and is obviously the engine of the offensive weapons. Sky Moore is unplayable, as he has seen his snaps drop in 4 straight now (hitting 52% last week). Toney on the other hand has ramped up in 3 straight, hitting 42% last week, he has a terrible .92 aDOT in his last 2 weeks, but they seemed to want to give it in his hands in the redzone, and we know he can YAC... I probably won't have him though. Rice hit 50% last week, and has shown to be pretty explosive, he quietly has 8 RZ targets on the season too, it feels gross clicking any as you don't know who it will be, I don't like that he is the most expensive, but I get it. I know they brought Hardman in, but all these WRs shoudl see slight boosts with Richie James and now Watson on IR.... it is kind of why I like MVS the most, he still leads the WRs in snaps, and without Watson, he is the only deep shot target left on the team, he has a 16.5 aDOT on the season, he would be my HR hitter. Pacheco has played 60%~ of snaps the last 3 weeks, feels like the first time we could say that about the chiefs backfield in quite some time.... in 2 of those games, he hit over 22 opps,, and even showed some PPR safety/upside, the chiefs are faves, and with a good total, he is cheap enough and should be considered.
ondering:
