Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
PHI@NYG
Eagles have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Giants have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Hurts has a bad pass potential. Barkley has a good rush potential.
Jones has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Eagles TTR is T-12th.
Giants TTR is 17th. (meh).
Pace of play is T-4th. O/U Rank is 8th (meh).
- Barkley is seeing 80%+ snap counts, and is almost a lock for 20+ touches a game, which includes a 3.6 targets/g average, he's a slight fave in a good matchup, won't ever tell anybody not to play him. AJ Brown and Smith have now played 2 games together and Brown has a massive 36% target share, with a really good 13.5 aDOT , compared to 22.5%/8, you are not getting a big enough discount for smith, so I'd reserve him to big game stacks if you go here, but I think Brown can be used in any scenario this week. All ships rise with Goedert out too.
While I want to play NYG backs, as they've consistently hit 70 to 80% of snaps, we can't now... As Tracy is to begin cutting into Singletarys snaps, and we don't want to pay 6K+ for a timeshare we are kind of uncertain about. I think Nabers can be played in tourneys but I'm concerned with the groin flair up, and his 7.5K price. In the 4 games with the starting 3, Slayton, despite just a 11% target share, he had the best aDOT on the team at 12.8, and showed success again when given a bigger opportunity, I think he is an ok semi-punt in tourneys at 5.1K. I will note, I do think Jones is pretty cheap at 5.4K, he's getting his #1 WR back, he is projected to be playing from behind, a good pace on the game, and he's had b2b games with 11 rush attempts...
HOU@GBP
Texans have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Packers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a good pressure rate situation. Mixon has a meh rush potential.
Love has a good pressure rate situation.
Texans TTR is 14th.
Packers TTR is T-4th (good).
Pace of play is 10th (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- In general, I think this is 1 of 4~ games people attack, so I think I want to be underweight the field, as the pace is the 3rd worst of the main slate, and there are no
great matchups. Mixon does it all, and I won't talk anybody off of his 7.2K price tag, week 1 he had 33 opps (3 targets), and in his 2nd
full game, he had 16 opps (3 targets), but it was a blowout and he only played 42% of snaps... He may be a 25+opp guy in full weeks with a PPR floor, so I get it. It is just the 2nd game without Collins, but Diggs/Dell are priced wayyy up now. Diggs actually had a really good 13.4 aDOT which greatly boosts his season avg, as it was lower single digits most of the year --- so that's a great sign, not sure I want to pay 7.7K though. The one who interests me the most is Schultz at 4.2K, he had a 26% target share last week, and a good TE aDOT of 8.4, look out.
I guess Jacobs is interesting... they are faves with a good o/u, and he's the cheapest he's been since Wk1. In his 4 games with Love, he's averaged 18.75 opps, with 3.25 targets/g. If people attack this game like I think, he could be the contrarian leverage to have exposure here while others go for the passing attack. If I knew Wicks would be healthy I'd have some interest in him as he has the best metrics in Love's games. If he's in, I probably avoid all, if he's out I do think one of Doubs/Watson could be one-off'd. Pass on Kraft, he's more expensive than Schultz with worse metrics.
DET@MIN
Lions have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Vikings have a bad P/RB matchup
Goff has a great pressure rate situation.
Darnold has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Jones has a bad rush potential.
Lions TTR is 7th (good).
Vikes TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd (great).
- This DET backfield is puzzling for DFS... either one can get over 20 opps, but either one can get just 13 opps, and you're paying high 6Ks for them. Montgomery I want to say is unplayable as he has a low target floor, but he has scored in all 5 games this year, I just don;t want to be chasing that, especially in one of the harder matchups this year. I'll always love Gibbs on PPR sites, as he has 3 games with at least 5 targets, but he has only hit 20 opps once this year, and obviously loses goalline work to Montgomery. You have to check ownership %, because if most of the field feels this way, than ya, you can get a back that has ceiling upside as a leverage in a matchup with a high O/U, so I get that, but I am leaning towards avoiding. It feels weird saying this, but Jame-O at 6K seems much better option than ASB at 8.3K. Jame-O has a 19.5% target share/14 aDOT, to ASB's 28%/7.3 aDOT. LaPorta is the cheapest we've seen him since early in his young career... 5.3K seems like a joke, but at the same time, he had just the 1 target/TD reception last week, and has just a 10% target share on the year with a bad 4.7 aDOT, how can you trust it? I know it'll bite me 1 week, but this isn't the week I feel like going here --- now if you think this is a shootout/MIN keeps it neutral or plays with a lead, fire him up.
In his full games, A. Jones has been really good, seeing at least 5 targets in 3 of 4 games, but he burned people in his last game with his injury, and is a GTD, I don't really want to mess with a hammy injury even if he does suit up --- they brought Cam Akers for a reason. If he's out Akers is kind of to cheap at 4.5K, would love to hear news on the share of touches though. In the 3 games with JJ and Addison together, they combined for a really good 58% target share --- we love concentration for tourneys, so if you think this is a shootout, play some Darnold + those 2. I want to note that they have big aDOTs, JJ 13.5, and Addison almost 18. Addisons numbers are actually really good for 5K range, and I will be playing him as one-offs as well.
TEN@BUF
Titans have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Bills have a good P/RB matchup.
Levis has a bad pressure rate situation, and pass potential. Pollard has a great rush potential.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Cook has a good rush potential.
Titans TTR is 20th (bad).
Bills TTR is T-4th (good).
Pace of play is 15th (bad). O/U Rank is 10th (meh).
- If you take out the blowout loss to GBP, Pollard has averaged 21.75 opp/g, and 3.75 targets/g, he is so cheap for that kind of role at 6.2K, oh and he was already averaging 60%+ snaps a game, his backup in Spears is ruled out... Pollard may see 80% of snaps, and 25+ opps and will not get scripted out unless they're down like 4 TDs, oh and the matchup is listed as great... Sign Me Up. IF you think the titans keep this competitive do not cross Hopkins/Ridley off your list, they are sooo cheap, and in week 6, Hopkins played 71% of snaps, the first time all year he was above 46%... he is finally healthy. In that game, both guys had huge aDOTs of 15+, with a combined target share of 51%+. I am not saying to attack them, but consider them for sure if mass entering and want involvement to this game. Rudolph/Levis are 4.7K, doesn't take much to get to 15+.
Cook never grades out to well for me as his opps. are range-y, and he is 7K with vulture Allen as his QB. The other issue with BUF this week, is you are getting their WRs priced as if Cooper wasn't there, so you'd think all ships sink a bit, but on the flipside you get cooper the cheapest he's ever been this year, but with a MUCH better passing situation around him, yet we don't know how much he will be involved/play... so I am torn on these pass catchers at the moment, hopefully we get some clarity soon --- or Lex?!
. I do think Kincaid is fine at 5K, he has a 21% target share, is coming off an 80% snap game, and has a fine TE aDOT of 7, he's also tied for the team lead in RZ targets. IF Cooper is out, Hollins seems like a really cheap punt play that could pay off.
CIN@CLV
Bengals have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Browns have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Burrow has a great pass potential. Moss? has a meh rush potential.
Bengals TTR is 10th (good).
Browns TTR is 19th (meh).
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is 9th (meh).
- I know he had that insane run vs NYG, but I don't really like burrow near 7K, as he needs 300+/3+ to even be close to worth it. I would reserve chase strictly to bigger game stacks, because in the 4 weeks they've played together (higgins/chase), higgins grades out better than him, and you are getting him 2K cheaper. 28.5%/9.1, vs 24%/9.8. He doesn't have the YAC, but sometimes that's as random as TD hunting. I wish Gesicki was thrown to more, because a close to 10 aDOT is nice for a TE, but a 6% target share ain't going to cut it. plus this team played 4 different TEs at points. Moss is obviously unplayable, and I'd also like some confirmation because going in on Brown that he will be more of the starter. A matchup last week vs the NYG/playing with a lead still gives me uncertainty, but it's also the projected script of this matchup. Still, he only had 13 opps, and he is almost 6K, I'll take a wait and see approach.
I will continue to get burned, but Watson at 4.9K obviously has my interest in tourneys .. ugh, I'll move on from that fast. With no Cooper, Jeudy obviously feels cheap at 4.8K, but I have interest in Moore at 3.2K too, especially for PPR sites, he should be on the field throughout, if he is popular and you pivot to Tillman, I'd understand that. I obviously don't want to go overboard on CLV players but aside from them we have 2 more to discuss. Njoku may be the best PPR option, as he had a massive 30.5% target share in his full game last week, and Coopers 26% target share has to be dispersed too. I don't like his 2.3 aDOT, but I can live with it if he is going to be peppered. And then, what do we even do with Chubb, just wait and see? get ahead of the train early? I'd think they don't want to give him a full workload, but they are also out Ford, and Foreman/Strong aren't really turning heads.
SEA@ATL
Seahawks have a good P/RB matchup.
Falcons have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Geno has a good pass potential. Walker has a great rush potential.
Cousins has a good pass potential. Bi. Robinson has a good rush potential.
Seahawks TTR is 9th (good).
Falcons TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is T-2nd (great).
- Just note of the 4~ main games people will be targetting, this one seems the best with both the pace, and pass volume of these teams.
Even in B2B negative run scripts, Walker really didn't lose work to Charbs, PLUS he had 8 targets in both games.... he may be officially workhorse/matchup proof/game script material like the other big dogs. I am not in love with Metcalf at this price, but he does have both the best target share and aDOT on this team, I'd just reserve him for game stacks though. Lockett and JSN are interchangeable to me, they are close in metrics, and since I think people will lean towards JSN, especailly with locketts practice/injury concerns, I think I'll lean to lockett at the cheaper price, plus he is officially off the report. No ty at TE.
I am not chasing 2 TD bijan, he played the least amount of snaps all year last week, and has yet to hit 20 opps since week 1, yet he's over 7K, could regret it, but have to take a stand. Now if you told me Allgeier will get 19~ opps again, I will have interest at 5.1K, but I'll reserve that for deep toruney/mass entry plays. Pitts' numbers are ok and he is not expensive, so if I need to drop down from the low 5K TEs I like, I understand, but not sure how much i'll be doing that just yet. RayRay is out there just as much as the other 2, but he is last in Target%/aDOT so pass. I have interest in Mooney, his 11 aDOT is good, and his 23% target share is fine, he's also much cheaper than London, but I still think London can be considered, 27.5% targets on a top 10 passing volume team PLUS 10 RZ targets which is quietly 2nd amongst the entire NFL tells me he has some TD equity too.
MIA@IND
Dolphins have a meh P/RB matchup.
Colts have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Huntley has a bad pass potential. Mostert? has a meh rush potential.
Richardson? has a good pressure rate situation, and pass potential. Taylor? has a bad rush potential.
Dolphins TTR is 16th.
Colts TTR is 11th (Good).
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is T-6th.
- Hill and especailly Waddle are getting CHEAP. I get why, but I think I want to attack them in this game. I believe they will be severely underowned, the pace of this game is great, in a dome, and Huntley hopefully gets a bit better off the bye/more time to develop. Also Richardson starting could set up more opportunities. I'll mention Jonnu Smith because with Huntley he has a 17%/7 stat line and is just 3.4K. It is hard to gauge Achane/Mostert production/usage, as the last time they played together was week 1 with Tua. Mostert did hit 21 opps (just 2 targets), but Achane left the game very early, with me going a bit overboard on the pass catchers, I'll pass here.
We don't know what Sermon/Goodson will be with Richardson, but we know Taylor only averaged 2 targets/g with him, so I don't expect to much from the running backs, plus, if he does still run, richardson is a possible vulture candidate too. I am not chasing Downs increased price because of flacco now with richardson. I like Pittmans 29.5% target share/10 aDOT with him through 3 weeks, and will note Pierce had a massive 24 aDOT when paired with a 17.5% target share, that's tourney range upside -- he's still played a lot even with down's return in wk3.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
LVR@LAR
Raiders have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Rams have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Mattison? has a bad rush potential.
Stafford has a bad pressure rate situation.
Raiders TTR is 18th (meh).
Rams TTR is 6th (good).
Pace of play is T-4th. O/U Rank is T-6th.
- AOC, another QB in the 4K range that I think can pay off in tourneys. While White is back, I do think it is still Mattison's backfield for now... with AOC he had 5 targets, and 19 total opps, don't mind that kind of average at 5.5K at all. TBC
CAR@WAS
Panthers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Commanders have a great P/RB matchup.
Dalton has a great pressure rate situation.
Daniels has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Br. Robinson has a great rush potential.
Panthers TTR is 15th.
Commanders TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Notes
KCC@SFO
Chiefs have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Hunt has a good rush potential.
Purdy has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Chiefs TTR is T-12th.
49ers TTR is 8th (good).
Pace of play is 14th (bad). O/U Rank is 5th (good).
- Notes
