1PM/Main Slate
JAC/IND
Jaguars have a good P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Colts have a meh P/RB matchup.
Lawrence has a good ASR matchup. Robinson/Etienne have the worst ALY matchup.
Ryan has a meh ASR matchup. Taylor? has a bad ALY matchup.
Jags TTR is 19th.
Colts TTR is 13th.
Pace is 6th overall, 5th of main slate. OURank is 10th.
- Injuries - JAC - Ton of Q's, on OL, Bartch is out. Either Jones at WR is important to monitor.
- IND - On D, DE Paye is out, S Blackmon is Q, Leonard still out. On O, Taylor/Hines to monitor.
- We actually have decent pace here, I can see Lawrence, or a pass catcher do well here if they struggle to run the ball. Etienne and Robinson have ranged between a 40 to 60% range almost in either direction, I think both are capped at max 15 opportunities, so pass. I will note, Etienne's snap % has slowly climbed, while robinsons did the opposite. Kirk was a ghost, and a dud for me last week, but he played 96% of snaps, he could be a great buy low candidate. Zay Jones had 8 targets, and a negative aDOT/r, PASS. Marvin Jones may be the one who is the most appealing, he had 11 targets (25%), and an aDOT/r over 10, that's solid. I think you choose between 1 of them as a one-off or small stack. TE is a crapshoot minus the big 2, but Engram saw 22.7% of targets last week (10), and had a nice aDOT/r of 8.3, he's also been playing almost 75% of snaps, hes not a bad punt.
For the colts, we need to see the health of the backs. Deon Jackson had 17 opportunities despite playing 58% of snaps last week... if both hines/taylor are out, he could see 20+ at a cheap price. I like the new toy Alex Pierce, he played 59% of snaps, his highest of the year, but pittman was at 99%, and Campbell also had his highest snap %, at 92%.... there's a lot to go around for what's possibly little pass opportunities in this matchup, possibly. I think I'll pass on pass catchers here, but I won't argue against Pittman, I will against Pierce, as he probably sees an inflated ownership for what he did last week. Despite the ability for 2+ TDs, pass at TE... they play all 3, and none had 50% of snaps last week.
SFO/ATL
49ers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Falcons have a bad P/RB matchup.
Garop has a good ASR matchup. Wilson has a good ALY matchup.
Mariota has the worst ASR in the main slate. Allgeier has a bad ALY matchup.
49ers TTR is 8th.
Falcons TTR is T-16th.
Pace is 13th overall, 10th in MS. OURank is 7th.
- Injuries - SFO - On D, DT Kinlaw still out. DE Armstead out again, CB Moseley is out, ouch. Bosa is Q. On O, OL Williams is still out, and backup McKivitz is out for 2nd week. TE Kroft is Q.
- ATL - On D, LB Walker is out. On O, Pitts is Q.
- I made the mistake last week of avoiding SFO+Wilson, despite a ton of defensive injuries, I think it can still be done. 49ers have the best ASR in the main slate, and wilson has a good ALY push, and they're 5 point faves. I'm not going ham on it, but saying its a good opportunity, and 1 of 6 candidates to possibly finish #1 overall in fantasy defensive points this week. Kittle hasn't matched the big 2 yet, but he's playing 90% of snaps, his backup may be out again, and he saw 20% of targets last week. His only problem is his team hasn't played a competitive match in the last 2 weeks. If you think Atlanta keeps it close, he can be a good pivot. I feel like I'm a broken record, but Aiyuk has seen 20% of targets on the season, but is the deeper threat to own over Deebo in this offense. In his 5 games, Wilson is averaging 16.6~ opportunities a game, which is kind of why I was hesitant last week, he's played between 49 and 66% of snaps 4 of the 5 weeks, but he's efficient as he's over 5 YPC on the season. I don't think he's a must have, but with a TD, he's easily a top 10 RB for the week.
Allgeier saw 60% of the backfield snaps last week, and had 13 carries in a game they were blown out, the problem is he had 0 targets, I don't like that. IF you think atlanta flips the script and plays with a lead, I can see where he can succeed, but it'll be tough to stomach when he gives you like a 5 FPointer.... London still owns this team, and holds a 33.1% target share (last week he hit 29.2%), he has a decent aDOT/r of 8 as well, I think he can be played any week. I think Pitts is in the same boat, if you need to pivot off the big 2, he has a 23.4% target share (excluding the game he missed), and has a healthy aDOT/r of 10.2, which is the most among TEs with over 20 targets.
TBB/PIT
Bucs have a good P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Brady has the best ASR matchup. Fournette has a bad ALY matchup.
Pickett has a bad ASR matchup.
Bucs TTR is 2nd.
Steelers TTR is 21st.
Pace of play is 2nd overall, 1st in MS. OURank is 3rd.
- Injuries - TBB - On D, still no DE Hicks, no S Ryan for 2nd week, no CB Murphy-Bunting. On O, no Julio most likely.
- PIT - On D, no CB Wallace, no DT Leal, no CB Sutton, no S Fitzpatrick, still no CB Witherspoon, and obvi still no LB Watt. On O, no Freiermuth.
- Through 2.5 weeks, prior to witherspoon getting hurt, Spoon/Fitzpatrick/Sutton played 100% of snaps in the backfield, ALL THREE are out. OUCH. Brady already has THE BEST ASR, 2nd highest TT, a great pace, and a good DVOA matchup. He may be a 75~% lock for me with everyone running to the 2 4pmers in ARI/SEA, and BUF/KCC. You have to atleast one-off a WR. My go to choice is Evans still. He led in targets last week, AND had the highest aDOT/r by a mile, of 15.3. Gage actually tied Godwin in targets, and played 73% of snaps to Godwins 52%, I'm not sure if that was health reasons in a game they led by 3 possessions, but something to consider/look at going forward. Brate returning screws over Otton believes. Otton had a 94% snap count last week, and I'm not sure how to judge it/brate this week, watch 1 go off for 2+ TDs. Ugh. If you're avoiding Brady and want to hedge, Fournette is your man, I understand his snap count has dwindled to 61% last 2 weeks, but both games were not typical games (this one may not be either), and he STILL produced, and last week alone he had 25 opportunites, 11 of which were targets. Talk about high floor.
All Diontae does is get a ton of targets and make spectacular out of bounds catches. He had 13 targets last week, he's averaging 10 a game, and had a decent aDOT/r of 8.5 last week. I think Pickens could be played too, he's a cheaper version of Diontae, but still 3rd in snap count amound WRs. Gentry saw 6 targets when Friermuth went down, but all short/shallow aDOT/r.... I'd rather pay up to the top this week, but I guess he's a fine punt. If you want to be different, nobody will be playing Najee, in a game with the 3rd best O/U, idk if I will, but doing a lineup with him could be a nice leverage.
NEP/CLV
Pats have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Browns have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Stevenson has the best ALY matchup.
Brissett has a good ASR matchup. Chubb has a great ALY matchup.
Pats TTR is 15th.
Browns TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 14th overall, 11th in MS. OURank is T-8th
- Injuries - NEP - On D, Uche is out. On O, we have Billichek at his finest. We don't know Harris/Jones, but most likely out. Meyers/Agholor are Q.
- CLV - On D, No CB Ward, no DE Clowney, but they may be getting back LB Jones/CB Williams this week.
- With no Harris, Stevenson becomes the defacto #1, he's cheap, he played 90% of snaps last week (with harris taking some), that's insanely high for a RB, and had 27 opportunities. He has the best ALY matchup. The only argument is do you want to find leverage off of him and hope the high ownership here fails, or do we want to be different somewhere else? Probably different somewhere else. When Meyers is on the field, he's a target beast, and could be a way to leverage off Stevenson, if you go this route... do know I don't think 2 offensive patriots should be in the same lineup. The OURank and Pace aren't the greatest. Passing at TE, but if you want Henry as a cheap punt option, go for it.
This is one of TWO games where 2 of the top 5 ALY backs are playing eachother. For both to succeed, we typically need a neutral game script, so nothing gets out of hand for the other, but you know here they both will be heavily used. Chubb has a massive 6.1 YPC, where he is average 3+ YPC before AND after contact. he gets 21~ opportunities a game and I will never talk anyone off of playing him. I think Cooper and Peoples Jones are interchangable, but they remind me of Seattle. Cooper has the greater RZ targets and leans me towards him. (like metcalf over Lockett). Njoku is a fine TE, I won't talk anyone off, but there's to many mouths here for a game that could be played slow, and I'd rather get the big TE's.
MIN/MIA
Vikes have a great P matchup. bad RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Cousins has a great ASR matchup. Cook has a meh ALY matchup.
Thompson? has a good ASR matchup.
Vikes TTR is 9th.
Dolphins TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 5th overall, 4th in MS. OURank is T-4th
- Injuries - MIN - Nothing serious.
- MIA - On D, No CB Kohou. On O, OL Armstead is Q. Teddy/Smythe/Mostert all Q.
- Cooks a good option, but he's priced up there, and gets less than 20 opportunities a game, his matchup is also middle of the road. I think there's other options here. Jefferson and Thielen are both every down players, but Jefferson is a huge Alpha, and has a 30% target on this team, with a decent aDOT/r of 7.9, and 2 RZ targets/g, We can safely pencil him in for 8-80, with no upside/big gains/tds. With any of those, he's a top 3 WR for the week.
I called out Mostert last week, and if he is healthy, he can be sneaky again. He's had b2b games with 70% of snaps, and is the current #1 there, assuming pricing is close, he could be the lineup or two leverage off the stevensons of the world. Thompson had 104 air yards on 33 attempts. GROSS. I thought we could be sneaky and play 1 of these WRs at a super low ownership, but they'll have to do all the work to get it, and idk if I like that, I may sprinkle 1 or 2 of waddle/hill, but I'm not overly convinced.
NYJ/GBP
Jets have a great RB Matchup, and meh P matchup.
Packers have a good P/RB matchup.
Hall has a great ALY matchup.
Jones has a great ALY matchup.
Jets TTR is 20th.
Packers TTR is 4th.
Pace of play is 8th overall, 6th in MS. OURank is T-4th.
- Injuries - NYJ - On D, no DE Johnson for 2nd week. On O, no OL Mitchell for 2nd week, and no OL Fant for 3rd week.
- GBP - On O, no WR Watson.
- Hall has not seen his snap count rise for the 4th straight week, finishing at 69%, carter has done the opposite, down to 42%. Last week Hall had 20 opportunities, and was tackled close to the endzone twice, to be vultured by Carter twice. He finally got his on the 3rd try, and still finished as the 4th overall back. I think he'll get more targets in this one, playing as a dog, as he's averaging 6 a week, despite having just 2 last week. He's a safe floor/high ceiling guy IMO. I keep saying it, but as far as WRs go here, Corey Davis is still the man, sorry Wilson/Moore owners. He shared the team high in targets last week, but he obliterates them in aDOT/r, and has for the season, as it currently stands at 14.5. He's the boom or bust WR to have. He also led the team in snaps last week. Pass at TE.
They have a good TTR, they're big faves, good pace/OU, and a great ALY matchup, but why am I still hesitant on Jones? He actually saw his highest snap count last week at 73%, but only had 16 opportunities, which is his season average too. I'm not sure if I love that, especially with all the other choices at RB this week. I don't think he's a bad play, but idk if it's ideal. We are not playing the TEs, they played 4 last week. Lewis had the highest snap at 51%. I'm still livid I dropped Doubs in a season long, but he's #2 in snap count week to week, and we have no Watson again. Having said that, in weeks 2-5 where he and Lazard both played, Doubs/Lazard had 24/25 targets, and aDOTrs of 2.8/9, I still think Lazard is the man to own here, he also has 1 more RZ target too.
BAL/NYG
Ravens have a good P/RB matchup.
Giants have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Lamar has a good ASR matchup, Dobbins has a good ALY matchup.
D. Jones has a meh ASR matchup. Barkley has a good ALY matchup.
Ravens TTR is 7th.
Giants TTR is T-16th.
Pace of play is T-11th overall, T-8th in MS. OURank is T-4th.
- Injuries - BAL - On D, still no DE Houston, no S Williams. On O, no Bateman.
- NYG - No CB Flott still, and missing 2 backup/depth CBs, S Jefferson is out, and most likely LB Ojulari too. On O, no Toney/Golladay/Shep still, we should be getting Robinson back.
- With no bateman last week either, Duvernay had 7 targets, and an aDOT/r of 6, he could be a cheap punt option in a good matchup. I'm never playing a balty RB. Lets turn our attention to Andrews. He has a 33% target share of this offense (massive for a TE, it's #1, and #2 in the whole league behind Kupp), this is with an aDOT/r of 7.4, and 8 RZ targets. If he can be played, you do it --- I forgot to add he's seen his snaps go up every week, and is #2 in snap average amond TEs. Lamar can always be considered in DFS, he has a huge floor, and ceiling combo, I won't talk you off of it, and it could be a pivot off of Allen/Mahomes/Hurts/Geno. This game issss 1 of the 6 top 10 ASR defenses, I'd rather do Lamar + DEF over dobbins + DEF.
Pass at TE, but will say Bellinger is starting to see higher snaps. At WR, idk what to say, but with no robinson, slayton can be played at a cheap price, with robinson, I may have a share or two of his, someone has to catch balls. Barkley only had 19 opportunities last week, but he missed part of the game. On the season, he's averaging 24 opportunities I think he can be played any week, but I may pass this one, despite a good ALY matchup. The pace is meh, despite a decent OU, but I kind of like Baltimore to lead, and would rather cheap one-off a WR if I have too.
CIN/NOS
Bengals have a meh P/RB matchup.
Saints have a meh RB matchup, and bad P matchup.
Burrow has a meh ASR matchup.
Kamara has a good ALY matchup.
Bengals TTR is 11th.
Saints TTR is T-16th.
Pace of play is 10th overall, 7th in MS. OURank is T-8th.
- Injuries - CIN - On O, Hurst/Higgins are Q,
- NOS - On D, no DE Turner for 2nd week, no CB Lattimore, no CB Williams for 2nd week, backup CB Taylor still out. On O, no WR Thomas/Landry/Harty, Olave is Q.
- This is one of the 6 defenses top 10 in ASR (NOS), but idk if I like it. They're missing a ton in the secondary vs an offense that can get over the top. I wish Higgins was fully healthy, even if he plays I'm nervous to start him. Chase is having a quiet~ season, but is 10th in target share among WRs, 5th in overall targets, and T-2nd in RZ targets, we know he has slate breaking upside too and plays every snap. The pace here stinks, but they are dogs, and he could see more volume with no Higgins. Mixon is averaging almost 25 opportunities a game, 20%+~ of which are targets he can always be considered, but I think he needs TDs to be optimal, as he's averaging just 3.1 YPC.
If Olave plays, he can be started. He had a 24% target share last week, aDOT/r of 12.8, which is basically his season averages, 25.6%, and 13.7. I think if the bengals play with a lead, he can have good upside. Kamara healthy is a boost for the saints. He's game script proof, and has a hold of the backfield, finishing at 73% of snaps last week. He had a solid 29 opportunities, 20%~ of which were targets, and finished as the 8th best RB, despite not scoring a TD. This is still the bengals, and doing a Kamara + DEF can still be fine.
4PMs/Main Slate.
CAR/LAR
Panthers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Rams have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Walker? has a bad ASR matchup.
Akers? has a meh ALY matchup,
Panthers TTR is 22nd.
Rams TTR is T-5th.
Pace of play is 3rd overall, 2nd in MS. OURank is 11th.
- Injuries - CAR - On D, S Chinn still out, and a ton of Q. On O, no Shenault, Anderson is Q, no Darnold, Baker is doubtful.
- LAR - On D, S Fuller out again. On O, OL Allen still out from 1 week, but Edwards and Shelton are out too, thats 3 week 1 starters. Akers is out.
- In the one game that Walker actually started and played 90%~ of the time CMC had 10 targets, and 23 total opportunities. Anderson/Moore were aDOT/r duds however. The pace is good, and the rams are having some serious problems, I think there's a scenario where panthers could lead, but either way CMC is matchup proof. I'll pass on the WRs for now.
This backfield is averaging 21~ opportunities a game, and now we have no Akers. Week 1 henderson saw 80%+ of snaps, and had 18 chances and that was in a blowout loss. It is 1 of the 6, and it is vs a 3rd string QB, Henderson + DEF could be a good move. If Kupp plays, and you can afford him, you do it...I still prefer Jefferson though if I had to choose. AROB or Skowronek would be next men up if Kupp is out, AROB being preferred because of his size for the RZ. Higbee is safe, but to shallow of targets, plus I want the big 2 more.
ARI/SEA
Cards have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Seahawks have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Kyler has a great ASR matchup. Benjamin? has a great ALY matchup.
Geno has a great ASR matchup. Walker? has a good ALY matchup.
Cards TTR is 3rd.
Seahawks TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is T11th overall, T8th in MS. OURank is 2nd.
- Injuries - ARI - On D, no backup CB Mullen, no LB Vigil again. CB Murphy is Q. On O, OL Hudson is Q, RBs Williams & Connor are out.
- SEA - On O, OL Jackson is doubtful. No Penny.
- Benjamin is one of the few RBs that'll see big volume surge due to injury at a cheap price. It's hard to pass on him in a spot where he has no compeition, and a great ALY push. His team is 3rd in TTR, 2nd OURank of the week too. The one knock is the slow pace. These teams, especially the cardinals actually play very slow until they are out of neutral situation, which given the line, says it might not happen. You almost have to play him, but there are options to consider despite him being the cheapest of the bunch. Lets not forget the pass catching options either, there are definite paths to Kyler vulturing benjamin, or just getting TDs from 10+ out, this is seattle. Despite Rondale Moore, and AJ green coming back, Hollywood has seen his target share the last 2 weeks at 30.4%, which is higher than his season average of 26.6%, and he has a decent aDOT/r of 7.3, I think he's the only to own here. Ertz isn't part of the big 2, but he's playing in a game that vegas thinks will be a shootout, and he leads the team in RZ targets, as well as a nice 20% target share overall. Dont hate him, but will probably not have much of him if any.
Another scenario where a RB gets his time to shine, Walker saw 60% of snaps last week, but only had 8 carries, and 0 targets. The targets concerns me, and makes me think without TDs, he actually could be a dud. I don't think he needs to be a set it and forget it. Lockett and Metcalf. are who we have to decide between. combined they have a 54% target share, 26% to 28%, lockett is starting to come away in aDOT/r, but both are good, 11.3 to 9.6, but metcalf still leads RZ targets 7 to 1.
BUF/KCC
Bills have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Chiefs have a bad P/RB matchup.
Singletary has a meh ALY matchup.
Helaire? has a bad ALY matchup.
Bills TTR is 1st.
Chiefs TTR is T-5th.
Pace of play is 4th overall, 3rd in MS. OURank is 1st.
- Injuries - BUF - On D, no CB White, S Hyde, CB Rhodes, On O, no Kumerow or Crowder.
- KCC - On D, no S Cook, CB Fenton, CB McDuffie (since wk1), and DE Wharton for 2nd week.
- This is the game 90% of people will be stacking, and 99% of people will have a part of. the OU is 3.5 points higher than 2nd, and 8 points higher than 3rd ranked game this week, and it has great pace. We have 2 of the best QBs with hampered secondary's, while both RBs have bad DVOA matchups, and not so great ALY matchups. Allen has the safest floor minus lamar, and arguably the biggest ceiling, especially this week. Gab Davis continues to be the snap leader at the WR position when he's healthy and has an INSANE aDOT/r of 20.1. He's mister slate breaker. Diggs can obviously be owned too, he leads the WR position in RZ targets, by a lot (11), has the target share on this team down, and still has a decent aDOT/r of 8.6. Either can be played confidently. What do we do with McKenzie/Shakir, I bet they both go super low owned in this explosive offense because they are not sure how much they'll eat into eachother, I think I prefer McKenzie. Knox shes shallow targets compared to this offense, and he doesn't have much RZ targets to go with it, pass. If you really want to be different and hold your nose, take singletary and nothing else, but I think you're pissing away your money.
I don't hate Helaire, he gets targets, so there's a floor there, I will add that he almost had 2 receptions for TDs where he was tackled close to the goaline, so that's promising, but I don't think I can do it, he's averaging just 13 opportunities a game, so he has to be efficient to get there (which he could, but not for my liking). At WR, it's MVS for me, its pretty equally disperesed, but he gets the deeper targets. Which brings me to the man, he has a 23.1% target share on this team, 3rd best among TEs, has an okay aDOT/r of 6.3, and almost sees 3 RZ targets a game (he now has 7 TDs this year). We obviously know we're talking about Kelce. You either play him, or you leverage yourself and hope Andrews beats him at the similar price point.
