DFS/Props Week 5 2025 Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
- Start date
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thursday Night/Showdown Slate
SFO@LAR
49ers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Rams have a meh P/RB matchup.
Purdy? has a good pressure rate situation. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Stafford has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Kyren has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 2nd (good).
- what a weird slate, all of the expensive players minus CMC are out for SFO, so there is a ton of value on the slate... if mass entering, you almost need to cycle the SFO WR to make sure you get the right one, anyways. In CMC's 2 games with Mac Jones he had a massive 30% target share (22 total targets), it sounds insane to say that may be his floor again here, but it almost feels that way, and is why you should consider him as the de facto capt player on PPR sites, keep in mind as well, Pearsall/Jennings are vacating 36%+ of their target share as well. MVS/Sky Moore can be used, but D. Robinson and K. Bourne are the 2 I'll mainly be playing. Only other SF playing I'll be slotting in in Tonges, he had a good aDOT of 8 with Mac Jones in week 3, and when they were forced to pass last week (which the line suggest they will this week too) his aDOT rose to 11.2, hoping some of the 37% target share filters to him as well.
The pass volume is just so insane with this team, and it is so concentrated, Puka, and Adams combine for a 64% target share (37.5%/26.5%), with aDOTos of 9.5/11.5, I know we obviosuly lean Puka with those numbers, but Adams comes at a discount, and has an insane 9 RZ targets on the year (to puka's 2), I think both can be played/interchanged. Kyrens a fine play, he obviously has the volume, and an ok target floor, but the reason why you can consider him is that everyone else is paying for the other big guns (CMC/Puka/Adams/QBs), so if he flies under the radar, and the TDs funnel through him, he will become a great lower owned pivot option off those weapons (you can still pair him with 1, maybe 2, I just don't know roster construction just yet with all the value savings there are). MAYBE if mass entering and you want to get cute, you could put in a Parkinson or Allen, as 1 catch practically pays off their salary, and 1 TD could make them optimal, and allow you to get 4 of the big guns.
SFO@LAR
49ers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Rams have a meh P/RB matchup.
Purdy? has a good pressure rate situation. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Stafford has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Kyren has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 2nd (good).
- what a weird slate, all of the expensive players minus CMC are out for SFO, so there is a ton of value on the slate... if mass entering, you almost need to cycle the SFO WR to make sure you get the right one, anyways. In CMC's 2 games with Mac Jones he had a massive 30% target share (22 total targets), it sounds insane to say that may be his floor again here, but it almost feels that way, and is why you should consider him as the de facto capt player on PPR sites, keep in mind as well, Pearsall/Jennings are vacating 36%+ of their target share as well. MVS/Sky Moore can be used, but D. Robinson and K. Bourne are the 2 I'll mainly be playing. Only other SF playing I'll be slotting in in Tonges, he had a good aDOT of 8 with Mac Jones in week 3, and when they were forced to pass last week (which the line suggest they will this week too) his aDOT rose to 11.2, hoping some of the 37% target share filters to him as well.
The pass volume is just so insane with this team, and it is so concentrated, Puka, and Adams combine for a 64% target share (37.5%/26.5%), with aDOTos of 9.5/11.5, I know we obviosuly lean Puka with those numbers, but Adams comes at a discount, and has an insane 9 RZ targets on the year (to puka's 2), I think both can be played/interchanged. Kyrens a fine play, he obviously has the volume, and an ok target floor, but the reason why you can consider him is that everyone else is paying for the other big guns (CMC/Puka/Adams/QBs), so if he flies under the radar, and the TDs funnel through him, he will become a great lower owned pivot option off those weapons (you can still pair him with 1, maybe 2, I just don't know roster construction just yet with all the value savings there are). MAYBE if mass entering and you want to get cute, you could put in a Parkinson or Allen, as 1 catch practically pays off their salary, and 1 TD could make them optimal, and allow you to get 4 of the big guns.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday Morning/London/Showdown Slate
MIN@CLV
Vikings have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Browns have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Wentz has a bad pass potential. Mason has a meh rush potential.
Gabriel has a bad pressure rate situation (this could partially be on flacco), and a bad pass potential.
Pace of play is 7th (meh).
- Notes
MIN@CLV
Vikings have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Browns have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Wentz has a bad pass potential. Mason has a meh rush potential.
Gabriel has a bad pressure rate situation (this could partially be on flacco), and a bad pass potential.
Pace of play is 7th (meh).
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
NYG@NOS
Giants have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Saints have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Rattler has a meh pass potential. Kamara~ has a great rush potential.
Giants TTR is T-17th (meh).
Saints TTR is T-11th.
Pace of play is 1st (Great). O/U Rank is T-8th (meh).
- Notes
MIA@CAR
Dolphins have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Panthers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Tua has a good pressure rate situation.
Young has a good pass potential. Chubba~ has a good rush potential.
Dolphins TTR is T-7th (good).
Panthers TTR is T-11th.
Pace of play is T-8th (bad). O/U Rank is 5th.
- Notes
HOU@BAL
Texans have a great P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation. Marks? has a good rush potential.
Rush has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Texans TTR is 13th.
Ravens TTR is T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is 14th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 10th (meh).
- Notes
DEN@PHI
Broncos have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Hurts has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Broncos TTR is 16th.
Eagles TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is 10th (bad). O/U Rank is 7th.
- Notes
DAL@NYJ
Cowboys have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Jets have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Dak has a great pass potential. Jav. Williams has a good rush potential.
Fields has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Cowboys TTR is T-3rd (good).
Jets TTR is T-9th.
Pace of play is T-4th. O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- Notes
LVR@IND
Raiders have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Colts have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Geno has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Jeanty has a meh rush potential.
Jones has a great pass potential.
Raiders TTR is 15th.
Colts TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is T-2nd.
- Notes
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
TBB@SEA
Bucs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Seahawks have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucky has a bad rush potential.
Darnold has a great pass potential. Walker~ has a bad rush potential.
Bucs TTR is 14th.
Seahawks TTR is 6th (good).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is 6th.
- Notes
TEN@ARI
Titans have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Cards have a great P/RB matchup.
Ward has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Pollard~ has a bad rush potential.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Titans TTR is 20th (meh).
Cards TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is T-8th (Bad). O/U Rank is T-8th (meh).
- Notes
DET@CIN
Lions had a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Bengals have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Gibbs has a great rush potential.
Browning has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. C. Brown has a bad rush potential.
Lions TTR is 1st (great).
Bengals TTR is T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is 11th (bad). O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Notes
WAS@LAC
Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chargers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Daniels has a bad pressure rate situation. Croskey? has a good rush potential.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Hampton has a meh rush potential.
Commanders TTR is T-9th.
Chargers TTR is T-3rd (Good).
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- Notes
NYG@NOS
Giants have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Saints have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Rattler has a meh pass potential. Kamara~ has a great rush potential.
Giants TTR is T-17th (meh).
Saints TTR is T-11th.
Pace of play is 1st (Great). O/U Rank is T-8th (meh).
- Notes
MIA@CAR
Dolphins have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Panthers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Tua has a good pressure rate situation.
Young has a good pass potential. Chubba~ has a good rush potential.
Dolphins TTR is T-7th (good).
Panthers TTR is T-11th.
Pace of play is T-8th (bad). O/U Rank is 5th.
- Notes
HOU@BAL
Texans have a great P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation. Marks? has a good rush potential.
Rush has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Texans TTR is 13th.
Ravens TTR is T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is 14th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 10th (meh).
- Notes
DEN@PHI
Broncos have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Hurts has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Broncos TTR is 16th.
Eagles TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is 10th (bad). O/U Rank is 7th.
- Notes
DAL@NYJ
Cowboys have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Jets have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Dak has a great pass potential. Jav. Williams has a good rush potential.
Fields has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Cowboys TTR is T-3rd (good).
Jets TTR is T-9th.
Pace of play is T-4th. O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- Notes
LVR@IND
Raiders have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Colts have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Geno has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Jeanty has a meh rush potential.
Jones has a great pass potential.
Raiders TTR is 15th.
Colts TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is T-2nd.
- Notes
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
TBB@SEA
Bucs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Seahawks have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucky has a bad rush potential.
Darnold has a great pass potential. Walker~ has a bad rush potential.
Bucs TTR is 14th.
Seahawks TTR is 6th (good).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is 6th.
- Notes
TEN@ARI
Titans have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Cards have a great P/RB matchup.
Ward has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Pollard~ has a bad rush potential.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Titans TTR is 20th (meh).
Cards TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is T-8th (Bad). O/U Rank is T-8th (meh).
- Notes
DET@CIN
Lions had a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Bengals have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Gibbs has a great rush potential.
Browning has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. C. Brown has a bad rush potential.
Lions TTR is 1st (great).
Bengals TTR is T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is 11th (bad). O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Notes
WAS@LAC
Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chargers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Daniels has a bad pressure rate situation. Croskey? has a good rush potential.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Hampton has a meh rush potential.
Commanders TTR is T-9th.
Chargers TTR is T-3rd (Good).
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday Night/Showdown Slate
NEP@BUF
Pats have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bills have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Maye has a meh pressure rate situation. Henderson? has a meh rush potential.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Cook has a great rush potential.
Pace of play is 13th (Bad).
- Notes
NEP@BUF
Pats have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bills have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Maye has a meh pressure rate situation. Henderson? has a meh rush potential.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Cook has a great rush potential.
Pace of play is 13th (Bad).
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
KCC@JAC
Chiefs have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jags have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Pacheco? has a meh rush potential.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Etienne has a great rush potentail.
Pace of play is T-4th.
- Notes
KCC@JAC
Chiefs have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jags have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Pacheco? has a meh rush potential.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Etienne has a great rush potentail.
Pace of play is T-4th.
- Notes
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Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Scope BOL, hope we can both skin the cat on CMC, I went over 54.5 Rec ydg. Like the Tonges play as well.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Great work tonight.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
I'm on
Chubb rush yds o31.5
Mason Taylor rec yds o31.5
Dallas will plan to take away wilson in the passing game. He still may ball out but give me the nice low number that can be eclipsed by 2 catches with an optimal matchup.Kaair Elam fade he's trash.
Chubb- again I can see Woody props but I think Chubb will still get plenty of touches vs this Ravens D.
Chubb rush yds o31.5
Mason Taylor rec yds o31.5
Dallas will plan to take away wilson in the passing game. He still may ball out but give me the nice low number that can be eclipsed by 2 catches with an optimal matchup.Kaair Elam fade he's trash.
Chubb- again I can see Woody props but I think Chubb will still get plenty of touches vs this Ravens D.