Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
MIA/BUF
Dolphins have a bad P/RB matchup.
Bills have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Tua has the best pressure rate situation.
Allen has a meh pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Injuries - MIA - On D, LB Phillips (71%) is out, S Elliott (93%) is Q. On O, WRs Cracraft/Ezukanma are out, RB Ahmed is Q, TE Kroft is Q, on OL, C/T Williams/Armstread are Q.
- BUF - On D, S Poyer (91%) is out.
This game is a full TD higher than the 3rd highest O/U of the main slate, it is reminiscent of last weeks LAC/MIN, so you can take 2 approaches for GPPs. Bigger type of game stack, or a mostly fade, if you go one direction and get it right, you'll have huge leverage, if you're wrong, you'll be struggling to cash... I see reasons for both... but I lean to mostly fade, people will have last week fresh in their minds and attack this game, and these defenses are better, while the pace is slow. Having said that, lets get into the game.
Tua is priced as the QB5 on this slate, while 3 of the 4 above him have rushing upside/floors, and the 4th is Herbert in a much better environment.... while he has the best air yards per attempt (by a good margin), he has a floor attached to him that is to low to be comfortable for me, as MIA has shown if they need to run, they will. See week 2 and 3, and while week 3 Tua had a good stat line as well, both typically don't coexist. Mostert/Achane played 51/41% of snaps last week, now the game was lopsided, so we need to look further into this and see if Achane is actually threatening.... when looking at MIA's first 4 drives before it was 28-10, my answer is yes. Mostert started the 1st drive, and in 3 plays, Hill hit a 54 yard TD, the 2nd drive, Achane and Mostert had 4 touches a piece, and Achance got the 2 redzone plays, the 3rd drive, They had 4 a piece again, but 3 of Achanes 4 came in the redzone, the 4th drive, was Achane... I think he is here to stay, and at 5.7K, I'd keep him in the player pool. At WR, I'll never talk you off Hill/Waddle, do know that Hill has a massive 35% target share, with a sick 13.7 aDOT, but alluding to my Tua comment earlier, Waddle/Berrios are also around 13, so depending on salary/ownership, adjust accordingly. I will add that 2 depth WRs are out for Miami, so Berrios could see some more opportunity, and I'd think some of the scraps still will filter to Smythe, now he played just 35% of snaps last week, I'd like to think that is because of the script, but something to monitor/be aware of going forward, I think I'll not play him in any stacks I do this week.
James Cook did not see a drop off in snaps, despite winning by 30~ last week. He has yet to have less than 18 opps in a game, and is averaging 19/g (4.33t/g), that is a semi safe floor, it is a way to pivot off the higher owned receiving options in this game. Just know, he has yet to get a TD this season, and on top of maybe not being the redzone guy, even if he was, we know Allen can vulture too but I think his price is good, and I like the opportunity. I think Diggs is a fine option, he obviously can break a slate with 30% target share, but has an aDOT of 9, if going here, I think I'd rather the good salary savings with Davis and his massive 16 aDOT/home run upside, both play practically the same amount. The WR3s on this team just don't play enough with Knox/Kincaid both out there, I can't recommend going here. If mass entering, and you want to be a bit different, go ahead and dart throw Shakir if you'd like, but I don't think I can, plus I'd like to see what other darts we have out there.
Both Knox/Kincaid have like a 60% snap FLOOR, but they have aDOTs below 5, an equal target share, and I don't want to play a guessing game.... 3.2/3.1K is cheap, but not sure I can stomach it just yet (will see by end).
DEN/CHI
Broncos have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Bears have a great P/RB matchup.
Russ has a bad pressure rate situation.
Fields have a bad pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is 4th.
- Injuries - DEN - On D, LBs Jewell(68%)/Clark(42%), DT Purcell(36%) are all out, and S Simmons (100%) is Q.
- CHI - On D, CBs Blackwell(14%)/Johnson(80%)/Gordon(45%), S Jackson (59%) are all out. On O, RB Homer is Q.
We have an uglyyy game.... on paper. Now, I know Denvers statistics can only go up here as everything is so skewed, they, as well as the bears, have a ton of secondary injuries, and in Denvers case, the offense has not been the biggest issue.... my one worry is that most seen the sick offensive matchups and go overboard in the projected exposure.
Perine/Jav. Wills are almost in a true 5050 split, I'd like to think as he continues to put the injury past him, Williams will see an increase in playing time. Either way, he is still getting the majority of opportunities compared to perine (who can't be played), as williams hasn't had fewer than 14 opps (hit in last weeks blowout), with no fewer than 3 targets... his price is pretty cheap at 5.5K and will be in my pool atleast. I know Mims keeps getting this bombs, but I can't trust his total snaps, pass. Now I want to say Jeudy since returning has increase his snaps, and targets went up, and he's the better play over sutton, but somehow he is so much more priced than Sutton. Sutton is cheaper, he has a 29% target share (this is in JUST the 2 games with Jeudy), and is seeing the most RZ targets, while playing more (90%) of the snaps, I like it. Trautman is playing over 80% of snaps, but he is just not utilized, and has a bad aDOT regardless, pass.
Now.... Fields has burned me once in DFS this year... and, gulp, if he fails this week, I may officially be done with him. He is the cheapest he has ever been since last years epic run, and while we don't know who to stack with him (if we even want too ---as he can be naked), his options are cheap. Kmet at 4K seems a bit to pricey, but as far as stacking options goes, he does have an 18% target share, he has just a 5.8 aDOT, I don't think i'll go here, as I'd rather pay up or punt, but I get it. Upon returning from injury. Mooney was an afterthought in the offense, he was 3rd among the 3 WRs in snap count, and in the 2 games he's played, he's had the lowest aDOT of the 3... yet he is priced right in the middle, PASS. Claypool saw 86% of snaps, had an aDOT of 16 in those 2 games, and is priced at 3.2K (3K is the floor), he is absolutely on my list, even as a one-off. If attacking this game in multiple ways, Moore doesn't break the bank, he had a 30% target share last week, and played 100% of snaps, while have an aDOT of 18.38 in the 2 games with all 3 of this WRs healthy... NOT BAD! I don't like the idea of playing one of these RBs, they split 5050, can be vultured by one another and Fields, the positive though, is they actually have some target floor, and they are both under 5K... so if mass entering and need salary relief, I wouldn't put them off your list (I lean roschon).
BAL/CLV
Ravens have a bad P/RB matchup.
Browns have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lamar has a good pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is 11th (meh).
- Injuries - BAL - On D, DE Ojabo (38%), CB Humphrey, LB Oweh (46%), S Washington (82%) are all out. S's Williams (31%)/Hamilton (100%) are Q. On O, WRs Bateman/OBJ are out, RB Hill is Q. T Stanley is doubtful, C Linderbaum is Q.
- CLV - On O, QB Watson is Q.
The injury bug continues for Balty and I didn't include Dobbins above, jesus, is this 3 years running? Also, this has moved to the worst O/U of the week...
Can we really play Lamar as the QB4 this week? I mean he will always have the rushing upside, and even with 202 passing yards last week he finished as the QB3, plus everyone will see the injuries, and CLV D (which may be popular), and say pass, so from an ownership projection, sure, I get it. I don't know if I can do it though. I don't think I'll ever play a BAL RB in DFS, Gus Bus still coudn't get past 45% of snaps with both Dobbins & Hill out, and now Hill may be coming back... plus Lamar vulture candidate. Now the receiving options get interesting. I'll leave it for one-offs, but injuries create opportunities/salary value. Flowers played 93% of snaps, Agholor 72%, this was without OBJ, but with a 69% bateman who is now out too. While I think Agholor is cheap enough to be played, Flowers does have a 30% target share on the season, and is still pretty cheap... now I say his name because he has a massive PPR floor, but know his aDOT has to be the worst among WRs ever for a WR1 at 4.84, so I get why you'd want to avoid it too. Andrews price continues to drop too, while his aDOT also isn't the greatest at 6, he has a 20% target share through his 2 weeks, and who else is lamar throwing too?
I hope Watson plays to draw more attention to the receivers/team in general, than him sitting and everyone only going ford~. Now Cooper and Moore have been great this year, they combined for 50% target share (25% each), but cooper trumps him in aDOT/r. I think they both are egregiously cheaper than they should be, but I think they could easily be scripted out, and/or hampered by the backup QB or less volume because of a watson shoulder. Hoping for a dud, and then play them next week(s) while still cheap. Njoku has a BAD aDOT of 1.82.... and his target share is just 11%... I'd rather go to kmet for $200 more.... pass. Ford is cheap enough to consider, he will be popular especially with D stacks, so I get why you;d want to avoid, especially when considering he hit just 56% of snaps last week and only had 13 total opps, without his 2 TDs, he would have been a big dud.
CIN/TEN
Bengals have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Titans have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Burrow has a good pressure rate situation.
Tannehill has a good pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 14th (bad), O/U rank is 10th (meh).
- Injuries - CIN - On O, TE Smith is out for 2nd week.
- TEN - On D, CB Molden (67%), S Brown (29%) are out, and DE Autry(59%)/DT Tart (54%) are Q. On O, no WR Philips/Burks, T Skoronski is out.
Burrows airyards per attempt, as well as his pocket time (which is a combo of pressure and quick releases) have been some of the worst in the league. The plus? He is projected a good pressure rate, he already is T-4th for most pass attempts, and every week his health is improving. Not a single one of these WRs has played less than 77% of snaps this year, and I think all 3 are viable. If people want to avoid Higgins and play Chase because of this years on the surface stats, then give me all the higgins --- I will have shares of both though --- because he has a good target share at 24% (chase is 27%), but with a much better aDOT of 12.96, compared to 8.34, and he comes in 1K cheaper... imo he grades out much better. I think Boyd can be played in team stack builds. All 3 TEs played between 42 and 47% of snaps... if you want to dart throw one in team stacks ,be my guest, as they are min priced, but I can't do it.
What the fuck is going on in TEN..... Henry may be the worst non injured first 2 rounds pick for FF..... in 2 games in which they lost, he didn't even get to 50% of snaps, he was at 38% last week.... in the 1 game they won, he played 71% of snaps... and prior to halftime last week, they were NEVER in a negative game script through 10 quarters.... I wanted to say maybe because they were but that is not the case, ugh. I still think in tourneys, maybe taking him could make sense since NOBODY will be playing him, and maybe they get up 2 possessions, but I'm not sure I can even recommend it, because at 7K, with a 38% snap 2 pt game, you'll be ruined if he does something like that again. 1) Burks has a 16% target share that needs to be dispersed, 2) Hopkins already has a 30% target share on this team with an 11.08 aDOT, 3) he is fucking 5.8K!... I will be SHOCKED if hopkins doesn't ATLEAST get 10 targets..... he is so far my favorite play, and will try to fit him in consistently. Ikhine/Moore should be the WR2/3, and they after 3.3/3K, so I get it for salary relief, but Hopkins price is just too good so I won't have much of them. People have been waiting on Chig, he has 2 games with over 80% of snaps, he has just a 12% target share, and a small aDOT of 4.9, but again, Burks usage needs to be dispersed, and he is 3.1K, arguably a better option than the Kmet/Njokus I mentioned above.
LAR/IND
Rams have a meh P/RB matchup.
Colts have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Stafford has a bad pressure rate situation.
Richardson? has a meh pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 2nd (great). O/U Rank is 3rd.
- Injuries - LAR - On O, T Jackson is Q, WR Skowronek/TE Higbee are Q.
- IND - On D, Buckner (73%) is Q. On O, C Kelly, T Raiman are out, and G Nelson is Q (he did not practice as of Wednesday).
Williams is the 2nd back to hit 100% of snaps this year (CMC the first), and he did it after a 95% snap week... nice... in his 2 games without akers, he is averaging 20.5 opps a game, (8.5!!! targets/g). He is still not priced as a bell cow, but the pace of this game is great, we have a good game total, I think the Colts Oline has some big issues, I see a great script for him and will be in my player pool. Now in the scenario where they do keep this game close, which the spread implies, the WRs need to be considered, Stafford is currently 2nd in pass attempts, last week all 3 WRs played at least 87% of snaps. Puka is to cheap for his target share of 35% (T-2nd with Hill, and behind Adams), but his aDOT is just 8,29, if he is going to be popular I'll probably pass, but I totally get it. Atwell has a bigger aDOT of 13, and a target share of 22%, he seems a little to cheap at 5.5K too, but overall I am more interested in Williams+D, then the offense. And I know I'm crazy for saying this, but Jefferson has a big aDOT of 18.33, and was on the field for 93% of the snaps last week... he is going to hit a big game (unless Kupp returning slashes him), and he is going to go virtually un owned this week, at 4K, I'll probably dart throw him in a lineup.... I can kind of say the same thing about Higbee that I did jefferson, but he doesn't take up a WR spot.. Higbee carries an injury designation (suppresses ownership --- see Montgomery thursday), but he has a good aDOT of 7.2 for TEs, and a 12% target share, he is fine as a one-off imo, or a game stack.
Moss saw his snaps drop from 98 to 76%, but ummm, he still had 33 opps (3 targets).... and he is just 6K, that kind of production is great, and I think he has a ppr floor in negative scripts, so while I think they are playing from behind, I think we can keep him in the player pool. I like Pierce, he leads the 3 WRs in aDOT, but I don't trust the oline this week, plus Downs is just $100 more than him, and doubles his target %, if punting, I'd go with downs first. Lets get to Pittman! the guy has a 30% target share (one of just 9 WRs), and hasn't had less than 11 targets in ANY game, so he's doing it with either QB at the helm, He is firmly in play, with downs, as I think we see anotehr positive script for them. Granson reminds me of a worse Chig, same priced practically, lower snaps, same aDOT/target share, but one has a team with key injury boosts (Chig with burks) the other doesn't (Granson), I'll pass here unless trying to get cute with a game stack.
TBB/NOS
Bucs have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Saints have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation.
Winston? has a good pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 9th, O/U rank is 12th (meh).
- Injuries - TBB - On D, CB Dean (48%), CB Pitts (22%), LB Dennis (5%), DT Kancey (17%) are out. CB/LB/DT Davis (100%)/White (97%)/Vea(58%) are all Q.
- NOS - On D, S Howden (100%), CB Adebo (100%) are out. On O, no RB Williams or C Ruiz. TE Moreau is Q, Carr is Q.
I need to remember this is a saints game, so don't go overboard, as they tend to make games ugly, and no side in 3 games has gotten over 20 points.... Having said that, White played a season high 91% of snaps last week, and is averaging 19.33 opps/g (3.33 targets/g), at 5.6K that's laughable and I think the perceived matchup should work in our favor. Mike Evans has a 31% target share, and 50% air yard share (with his 13.57 aDOT) ---- those are quietly Tyreek Hill numbers and nobody is talking about it, my gut says to go well overweight here, but it is why I started my blurb with remembering this is a saints game... he has to remain in your player pool in tournaments. While Godwin isn't a bad play, with a 21% target share, his aDOT is just 8.84, and he is not that much cheaper than Evans, so I'll pass. Palmer took the WR3 duties last week, playing 71% of snaps, but he had 1 target.... if you want to dart throw it as a one-off salary reliefer when mass entering, be my guest, though I probably won't. Otton is so similar to the other TEs I mentioned but he does play 90%+ of snaps, while he has that, his aDOT is under 5, with just a 12% target share, I'll probably pass.
Any news on Kamara's usage? let me know please. I will probably pass on him, but the saints did give Jamaal (albeit without Kamara AND Miller) 75% of snaps week 1, which makes me think if Kamara is all systems go, he could get to the 2/3rds mark. Saints have a 3 headed monster at WR, all playing at least 72% of snaps, and they are all prices kind of appropriately. I obviously like Olave, his 32~% target share is great, his aDOT of 11.63 is what you want, no issues firing him up in a plus matchup. Shaheed is strictly for HR prays/dart throws, as he has a massive aDOT of 19.5, Thomas is a good PPR floor option, through 3 games he hasn't had a game under 8 targets, 1.33 RZ t/g, but has a smaller aDOT of 8, idk how much I will have, but I wouldn't cross him off either. I keep waiting for Juwan Johnson, but it is not happening, his target share is under 12, with a 5.83 aDOT (sounds familiar), I'd rather go somewhere else,
WAS/PHI
Commanders have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Eagles have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Howell has the worst pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 15th (bad), O/U Rank is 7th.
- Injuries - WAS - On D, S Butler (55%) is Q.
- PHI - On D, LB Dean (61%) is out for 3rd week, CB Maddox (60%) is out for 2nd week, S Brown (26%) is out. S Evans (77%) is Q. On O, WR Watkins is out.
Despite being cheap the ONLY way you can play Robinson is if you truly believe they can play with a lead as 9 point underdogs. I won't be having him, as he has a very low PPR floor, and last week in the negative script he played 37% of snaps to Gibsons 61%. WAS WRs are weird.... they all played 74%+ of snaps last week, there aDOTS range from 7.38 to 9,19, and the target shares 13.04-17.39%, AKA nobody stands out, which in one hand, sucks, but the other, if you have strong conviction, you may land a great play with ownership being suppressed. They are cheapp enough to consider all of them, but idk who I'd go to be honest. Now most will probably be doing this, but Logan Thomas seems like the right path. If he is all systems go, he played 82% of snaps week 1, in the 2 games he started (playing just 40% of snaps as he got hurt mid game), he still had a 17.5% target share, with an ok aDOT of 6.18, at 3.1K he is the one we gravitate most too so far.
Swift played just 54% of snaps last week, but it was kind of a blowout, and he still managed 130 rushing yards on just 16 carries.... the problem is (like I said last week, gulp) he is in a perceived tough matchup, hurts (and gainwell & co) can vulture him, and he is averaging just 2.33 targets/g., but as 9 point faves, and only 5.7K he isn't a bad choice. I'm repeating myself, but Brown/Smith are the same person... they have aDOTS in the 14s, the target share is less than 2% off (totaling over 59%), and the price is just $200 off..... if you want to play a WR from this game, go with the one that has a lower projection in ownership (probably smith). Goedert is playing 90$+ of snaps, he has a 15% target share with a 6.25 aDOT...
thats the same (or worse) than the guy mentioned just above him, but he is 1.3K more expensive, and possible in a much worse script than him, pass.
MIN/CAR
Vikings have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Panthers have a good P/RB matchup.
Young? has a meh pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is 5th.
- Injuries - MIN - On O, C Bradbury is Q.
- CAR - On D, S Woods (62%), LB Thompson (53% - for 2nd week), CB Horn (38% - for 3rd week) are out, LB Luvu (82%) is Q. On O, WR Mingo, RB Sanders are Q.
It is weird seeing Cousins as the 7th priced QB, it is tough for me to want to invest 7.1K in a QB with 0 rushing upside, but he is averaging an elite 358 passing yds/3 tds a game, and has the most pass attempts in the league thus far, the pace is great, so I really don't hate it. but ultimately I'll probably pass. JJ has a 28% target share on a team thats #1 in pass attempts.... if you can somehow get him, I can't blame you... his worst performance was 27 fantasy points, and that was with 0 TDs. Osborn is so much cheaper for being SLIGHTLY less productive than Addison, yet playing more snaps still... I just can't click Addison knowing that, so if trying to get different, Osborn is where I'd go. Hockensons aDOT of 6.21 is alright for a TE, the 21% target share is what we live for (again for the team with the most attempts), so if wanting to pay up for security reasons, you can go here, but I won't have much of him probably, as I'd rather go down to Andrews for what I see as a better path for same/greater production. I think for tournaments Mattison makes a lot of sense again. He is coming of a 27 opp (7 target) performance, where he played 80% of snaps. His matchup is great, he is cheap, and my thought process is people may be scared to go here with Akers being active (if he is active).... He will be on my list.
I loved Dalton last week, and he was one of the optimal QBs... I think whomever starts this week still fits that role, again the pace is great, they should be playing with a positive game script, and they just showed us they are willing to throw when needed, as Dalton had 58 pass attempts last week. Sign me up. I know I keep doubting Theilen, and he has a nice 21% target share, and plays 90%~ of snaps, and overall, he is still cheap... I just have the even cheaper guy(s) (Mingo/Chark), that have greater aDOTS than Thielens 8.24, and keep in mind, some of that target share is inflated with Mingo missing most of week 3/Chark missing week 1/etc... Hurst has a decent 16% target share/7 aDOT with Young, I think at 3.3K he is one of the better ones in that range... Sanders quietly leading the league in RB targets, impressive, if he is active, I'm ok with the thought of playing him, but I'll probably pass. Having said that, if he is out, I am all systems go on Chubba. He will be vaulted into a 70%+ snap share, and the 2 of them combined are averaging 10 targets a game... he'd have a sexy floor for someone at 4.8K....
PIT/HOU
Steelers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Texans have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Pickett has a bad pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 3rd (great), O/U Rank is 9th (meh).
- Injuries - PIT - On D, DT Heyward is still out. On O, G Daniels is out, and WR Johnson is out.
- HOU - On D, LB Perryman (98%), CB Thomas (69%), CB Stingley (98%) are out for 2nd week. On O, Ts Tunsil/Jones are out, C Deiter is Q.
I know the matchup is great, but Najee is averaging just 2 targets a game, and 53%~ of snaps.... even in the game they led by 1-2 possessions, he only got 50% of the snaps, it just isn't worth. Warren on the other hand is cheaper, averaging 5.33 targets/g, and gets some ground work... nobody will be playing him, so I can be talked into having him on a small% of a player pool. In 2 games without Diontae, Pickeds has a really good target share of 28.5%, with an okay aDOT of 9.56, he is also grossly underpriced, and will be up there in targets for me. I wouldn't touch Robinson, w/o diontae he has a 5 aDOT and 12.5% target share, I'd rather dart throw Calvin Austin at 3.3K. I wish Freiermuth had a better target share (9%), but he does have a good TE aDOT of 9, plays 70%+ of snaps and is in a good matchup, and only at 3.4K.... I won't talk anyone off of it just don't know how much exposure I'll have.
Pierce had a positive game script finally, and he only got to 54% of snaps, and 17 total opps. The good? He's dirt cheap, hasn't had fewer than 3 targets in any game,, and 15~ opps seems to be his floor. You can totally talk me into a Pierce + Pickens stack (or Pierce + Pickett/Pickens, and/or warren/freier/austin). Unfortunately, if wanting to go HOU WRs, there isn't much separating them. There target shares range from 18.26 to 21.74%, and aDOTS are 9,56 to 12.62. If going here, I'd mostly take the one with the lowest projected ownership. HOU starts. If you want to go Schultz, be my guest, he has a 12% target share, with an ok aDOT of 6.21, but they play 3 TEs here, and my guess is they need more protection with the line tomorrow.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
LVR/LAC
Raiders have a great P/RB matchup.
Chargers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
O'Connell has a meh pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 5th (good), O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Injuries - LVR - On D, CB Hobbs (92%) is out, DE Crosby (95%)/DE Koonce (37%), and S Teamer (14%) are Q. On O, QB Garop is out.
- LAC - On D, S Woods (38%) is out. LB Bosa (49%), S James (86%), CB Leonard are all doubtful, and S Gilman (100%) is Q. On O, C Linsley is out, WR Williams is out, and RB Ekeler is doubtful.
I mean we have the leagues worst pass D, that is littered with secondary/pass rush injuries. The Pace is good here too, and chargers can easily set the ton with having the raiders be in a positive pass game script. Am I crazy for liking a 4K O'Connell, and maybe a now under owned Adams? He has a massive 40% target share, with an aDOT of 11.46, no question he can finish as the WR1, but I understand with O'connell we could see a dud. Meyers is the only other WR to think about, as the both of them see 90%+~ of snaps, He quietly has a 24% target share, with an aDOT of 10.14, on some teams, that is WR1 status, yet it some how looks pedestrian next to Adams, both are in play imo. Maybe O'connell will be different, but these TE's are both played, and both don't see targets, pass. Jacobs is priced as the RB4, and has yet top finish above the 20th ranked RB for any given week. Not sure I can pay that kind of salary, if you want to make a case of dump offs, you could convince me, but I think there's better plays.
While it doesn't feel good clicking Kelleys name, and his usage has been low, he probably goes very low owned with b2b dud performances.... he is playing 75%~ of snaps in those 2 weeks however, and this could be the best script he's seen, idk if I go here as he is averaging just 1 target a game, but if you want to also argue with no Williams, maybe some filter underneath, I can be convinced. Now Mike Williams is leaving behind a 22% target share, and 31% Air yard share to his fellow teammates. I think this obviously improves an already sexual Allen with his 33% target share, but I kind of like Palmer of Johnston, he was already playing as the WR3, and his aDOT numbers are identical to Williams. Just don't play Everett until further notice.
NEP/DAL
Patriots have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a meh P/RB matchup.
Both pressure rate situations are neutral.
Pace of play is 4th (good), O/U Rank is 8th.
- Injuries - NEP - On D, J. Jones (80%) is out for 3rd week, M. Jones (34%) out for 2nd week, DT Ekuale (22%) is out. DTs Barmore (55%)/Godchaux (45%), and CB Wade (41%) are Q. On O, G Strange is out.
- DAL - On D, no CB Diggs (86%) for 2nd week. On O, no T Smith, and G/C Martin/Biadasz are Q. TE Hendershot is Q.
- Stevenson is a 70%~ snap guy right now, with a 4.33~ target floor, he is actually kind of on the cheap side to and has a "on paper" tough matchup, which I think helps avert eyes. The pace of this game is quietly good, I wouldn't be shocked to see him excel. Dobbs wasn't asked to do much last week but he finished with an 80% completion %, and an air yard per attempt of 5.3, that would slate him as 4th best among QBs if a season average. Maybe the diggs injury was bigger than we expected? If you wanted to be different, and game stack this for a potential shootout in a couple entries, I think it is not a bad idea. The problem is where do we go at WR?, looking at just the 2 weeks Parker played. Bourne has a massive 16.71 aDOT, and a 20% target share, my only concern is his snaps dropped to 54%~ with parker back, Juju is off my board, he is practically same price as parker, but parker beats him in targets/adot/snaps, only 2 I'd have Bourne first. I wish henry was a bit cheaper, but he does have a good aDOT at 7.5, with a 17% target share, so I get it... Gesicki on the other hand is at 10%, but a great TE aDOT of 12.43, he is a pure punt option, but I wouldn't be shocked at a sub 1% ownership and finishing with a 4-50-1 statline.
The OLine issues concern me, but Pollard finally played in a game where they didn't dominate, and he had an 86% snap count, and finished with 26 opps (3 targets), I think he is kind of script proof minus a blowout (and I don't see that happening), not sure if you can fit him, but he is a fine play always. Lamb has a great 24% target share, but his aDOT is just 7.63, we know he can slate break, but he feells a bit expensive with other options around his price, save him for game/team stacks. Gallup leads the 3 in deep shots and is cheaper than Cooks, I'd have him as my HR option, pass on Cooks. Ferguson has a pedestrian 3.22 aDOT, but the team may have Oline issues, and Hendershot may be out, Dak has already given him 8 RZ targets as well.... he may be one of my favorite sub 3K TE.
ARI/SFO
Cardinals have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a good P/RB matchup.
Both pressure rate situations are neutral.
Pace of play is 16th (last), O/U Rank is 6th.
- Injuries - ARI - On D, LB Woods (55%)/S Baker (100%)/LB Collier (52%) are out for 3rd week, DT Watkins (31%) is out for 2nd week, DE Ledbetter (64%) is out. LB Barnes (61%) is Q. On O, WR Brown is Q, T Johnson is Q.
- SFO - On D, LB Greenlaw (94%) is Q. On O, WR Deebo/RB Mitchell are Q, Jennings is doubtful.
- I think this is a week I'll pace on Conners, he has only had 3 targets over the last 2 weeks, and I don't think he will have much success on the ground. If Hollywood suits up you have to consider him, he is just 5K, and the guy has a 27.5% target share, with an aDOT of 10.55... the only other guy worth it is Wilson who saw his snaps rise back up again finishing as the WR2, but he is a massive HR guy with a 17.22 aDOT... i don't think I go here, but in tournaments I understand it as a flier. I meannnn how often do I need to say it, Ertz has a 25% target share, he is playing atleast 60% of snaps, he has an ok aDOT of 6.4, and he is still cheap!.
If you want to pay up for CMC, go for it... he has an efficient 23 touch floor, a favorite to score atleast 1 TD, 4.33 targets/g (which seems low for him) --- the only concern is a lopsided win, and with no Mitchell, maybe they see what they got with Mason? --- or no mitchell, CMC will be forced into the 100% snap count role again?.... Taking out Week3, Deebo had a 30% target share with Aiyuk in the lineup, just an aDOT of 8, but that is still really good, if you think ARI continues to hang around/be competitive like the first 3 weeks, the WRs here could be money, and keep in mind, there typical WR3 is most likely out. I won't be going overboard here, as I hate the pace, and think the game could get ugly, but if you have conviction, this is obviously an explosive offense. I forgot about Kittle, I won't have any, with Deebo/Aiyuk in the lineup, he has a 17% target share with an aDOT of 5.33, thats to big of a price when guys similarly are much cheaper.
