DFS/Props Week 3 2025 Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
- Start date
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thursday Night/Showdown Slate
MIA@BUF
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Tua has a bad pass potential. Achane has a great rush potential.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Cook has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 5th (meh).
- Achane had 21 opps, 10 targets, last week, playing over 90% of snaps and this was in a dominantly neutral game script, he has such a good floor with big upside, it is hard not to slot him in your lineup. Waddle is just not priced far enough away from Hill for me, so I will be underweight, the only positive he has is his RZ targets from Tua, otherwise Hill has his target share beat (22% to 18.5%), as well as aDOT, 16.2 to 10.8. Washington is playing 60% of snaps a game, and is averaging 5.5~ opps a game, if he plays, he is a low price option that can be targetted, if he is out, Ikhine jumps up. Neither TE was targetted last week, but in wk1 Conner had 4 targets (1 rz target), he is almost min priced at $800, 1 catch practically pays off his salary, and he could allow you to get the big dogs (this is assuming no waller). I think throwing in 1 or 2 of Washington/Conner, maybe Gordon/Ikhine (depending on injuries/etc) is the way to go.
Cook is averaging 20 opps (3targets/g), I obviously don't prefer him to Achane, and I like Allens floor/ceiling combo better, where I don't think you can get all 3 of these guys together. I will only have cook if mass entering and you want to get leverage/hope that all the TDs funnel through him, or in a BUF onslaught stack, where they win by like 24+ and put up 40+. I think picking the correct one (at the least 1) of the 3 WRs is where most lineups will be won or lost. The 3 WRs all see playing time Coleman/Shakier/Palmer are averaging 71/61/57% of snaps, 20%/16%/17% of targets, and 11.3/9.1/13.5 aDOTs, while all having multiple RZ targets already. I am most inclined to take Palmer as he is the cheapest of the bunch, with the biggest aDOT, and not that much lower snap/target share, followed by coleman than shakir. Kindcaid did not to much more than Knox last week, and he is more than doubled his price, I won't have him in my roster, while I think Knox (and palmer) can be added to that cheap group I mentioned with MIA above.
MIA@BUF
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Tua has a bad pass potential. Achane has a great rush potential.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Cook has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 5th (meh).
- Achane had 21 opps, 10 targets, last week, playing over 90% of snaps and this was in a dominantly neutral game script, he has such a good floor with big upside, it is hard not to slot him in your lineup. Waddle is just not priced far enough away from Hill for me, so I will be underweight, the only positive he has is his RZ targets from Tua, otherwise Hill has his target share beat (22% to 18.5%), as well as aDOT, 16.2 to 10.8. Washington is playing 60% of snaps a game, and is averaging 5.5~ opps a game, if he plays, he is a low price option that can be targetted, if he is out, Ikhine jumps up. Neither TE was targetted last week, but in wk1 Conner had 4 targets (1 rz target), he is almost min priced at $800, 1 catch practically pays off his salary, and he could allow you to get the big dogs (this is assuming no waller). I think throwing in 1 or 2 of Washington/Conner, maybe Gordon/Ikhine (depending on injuries/etc) is the way to go.
Cook is averaging 20 opps (3targets/g), I obviously don't prefer him to Achane, and I like Allens floor/ceiling combo better, where I don't think you can get all 3 of these guys together. I will only have cook if mass entering and you want to get leverage/hope that all the TDs funnel through him, or in a BUF onslaught stack, where they win by like 24+ and put up 40+. I think picking the correct one (at the least 1) of the 3 WRs is where most lineups will be won or lost. The 3 WRs all see playing time Coleman/Shakier/Palmer are averaging 71/61/57% of snaps, 20%/16%/17% of targets, and 11.3/9.1/13.5 aDOTs, while all having multiple RZ targets already. I am most inclined to take Palmer as he is the cheapest of the bunch, with the biggest aDOT, and not that much lower snap/target share, followed by coleman than shakir. Kindcaid did not to much more than Knox last week, and he is more than doubled his price, I won't have him in my roster, while I think Knox (and palmer) can be added to that cheap group I mentioned with MIA above.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
GBP@CLV
Packers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Browns have a bad P/RB matchup.
Love has a good pass potential. Jacobs has a meh rush potential.
Flacco has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Packers TTR is
Browns TTR is
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is
- Notes
NYJ@TBB
Jets have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucs have a great P/RB matchup.
Fields? has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Hall has a bad rush potential.
Bucky/White have a great rush potential.
Jets TTR is
Bucs TTR is
Pace of play is T-10th (meh). O/U Rank is
- Notes
LAR@PHI
Rams have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stafford has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Hurts has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Barkley has a great rush potential.
Rams TTR is
Eagles TTR is
Pace of play is 16th (bad/last). O/U Rank is
- Notes
LVR@WAS
Raiders have a meh P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Geno has a meh pressure rate situation. Jeanty has a bad rush potential.
Daniels has a bad pressure rate situation.
Raiders TTR is
Commanders TTR is
Pace of play is 2nd (great). O/U Rank is
- Notes
PIT@NEP
Steelers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Pats have a great P/RB matchup.
Warren~ has a bad rush potential.
Maye has a great pass potential.
Steelers TTR is
Pats TTR is
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is
- Notes
ATL@CAR
Falcons have a good P/RB matchup.
Panthers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Penix has a good pass potential. Bijan has a good rush potential.
Young has a meh pass potential. Hubbard has a meh rush potential.
Falcons TTR is
Panthers TTR is
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is
- Notes
HOU@JAC
Texans have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jags have a good P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Etienne has a great rush potentail.
Texans TTR is
Jaguars TTR is
Pace of play is 13th (bad). O/U Rank is
- Notes
CIN@MIN
Bengals have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Vikings have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Browning has a bad pressure rate situation.
McCarthy has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Bengals TTR is
Vikings TTR is
Pace of play is 6th (meh). O/U Rank is
- Notes
IND@TEN
Colts have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Titans have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
D. Jones has a good pressure rate situation. Taylor has a great rush potential.
Ward has a meh pass potential.
Colts TTR is
Titans TTR is
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is
- Notes
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
NOS@SEA
Saints have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Seahawks have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Kamara has a meh rush potential.
Darnold has a good pass potential.
Saints TTR is
Seahawks TTR is
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is
- Notes
DEN@LAC
Broncos have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chargers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Nix has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Herbert has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Hampton/Najee have a bad rush potential.
Broncos TTR is
Chargers TTR is
Pace of play is T-10th (meh). O/U Rank is
- Notes
DAL@CHI
Cowboys have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Bears have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Dak has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Jav. Williams has a good rush potential.
Cowboys TTR is
Bears TTR is
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is
- Notes
ARI@SFO
Cards have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
M. Jones has a great pressure rate situation. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Cards TTR is
49ers TTR is
Pace of play is 14th (bad). O/U Rank is
- Notes
GBP@CLV
Packers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Browns have a bad P/RB matchup.
Love has a good pass potential. Jacobs has a meh rush potential.
Flacco has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Packers TTR is
Browns TTR is
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is
- Notes
NYJ@TBB
Jets have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucs have a great P/RB matchup.
Fields? has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Hall has a bad rush potential.
Bucky/White have a great rush potential.
Jets TTR is
Bucs TTR is
Pace of play is T-10th (meh). O/U Rank is
- Notes
LAR@PHI
Rams have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stafford has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Hurts has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Barkley has a great rush potential.
Rams TTR is
Eagles TTR is
Pace of play is 16th (bad/last). O/U Rank is
- Notes
LVR@WAS
Raiders have a meh P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Geno has a meh pressure rate situation. Jeanty has a bad rush potential.
Daniels has a bad pressure rate situation.
Raiders TTR is
Commanders TTR is
Pace of play is 2nd (great). O/U Rank is
- Notes
PIT@NEP
Steelers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Pats have a great P/RB matchup.
Warren~ has a bad rush potential.
Maye has a great pass potential.
Steelers TTR is
Pats TTR is
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is
- Notes
ATL@CAR
Falcons have a good P/RB matchup.
Panthers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Penix has a good pass potential. Bijan has a good rush potential.
Young has a meh pass potential. Hubbard has a meh rush potential.
Falcons TTR is
Panthers TTR is
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is
- Notes
HOU@JAC
Texans have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jags have a good P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Etienne has a great rush potentail.
Texans TTR is
Jaguars TTR is
Pace of play is 13th (bad). O/U Rank is
- Notes
CIN@MIN
Bengals have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Vikings have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Browning has a bad pressure rate situation.
McCarthy has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Bengals TTR is
Vikings TTR is
Pace of play is 6th (meh). O/U Rank is
- Notes
IND@TEN
Colts have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Titans have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
D. Jones has a good pressure rate situation. Taylor has a great rush potential.
Ward has a meh pass potential.
Colts TTR is
Titans TTR is
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is
- Notes
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
NOS@SEA
Saints have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Seahawks have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Kamara has a meh rush potential.
Darnold has a good pass potential.
Saints TTR is
Seahawks TTR is
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is
- Notes
DEN@LAC
Broncos have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chargers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Nix has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Herbert has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Hampton/Najee have a bad rush potential.
Broncos TTR is
Chargers TTR is
Pace of play is T-10th (meh). O/U Rank is
- Notes
DAL@CHI
Cowboys have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Bears have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Dak has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Jav. Williams has a good rush potential.
Cowboys TTR is
Bears TTR is
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is
- Notes
ARI@SFO
Cards have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
M. Jones has a great pressure rate situation. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Cards TTR is
49ers TTR is
Pace of play is 14th (bad). O/U Rank is
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday Night/Showdown Slate
KCC@NYG
Chiefs have a great rush potential, good P potential.
Giants have a great P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has a good pass potential. Pacheco has a good rush potential.
Russ? has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Tracy/Skattebo have a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 14th (bad).
- Notes
KCC@NYG
Chiefs have a great rush potential, good P potential.
Giants have a great P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has a good pass potential. Pacheco has a good rush potential.
Russ? has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Tracy/Skattebo have a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 14th (bad).
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
DET@BAL
Lions have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Ravens have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Lamar has a good pressure rate situation. Henry has a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is 15th (bad).
- Notes
DET@BAL
Lions have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Ravens have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Lamar has a good pressure rate situation. Henry has a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is 15th (bad).
- Notes
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2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Sounds like bills d pretty banged up. I love some achane to score at even money, but im greedy and really like achane + cook at +200.
Like Tua over 234.5 passing and ov 23.5 completions just cause Miami defense sucks and I assume at some point they will have to abandon run and throw a lot, which doesn’t hurt achane chances of scoring at all !
Like Tua over 234.5 passing and ov 23.5 completions just cause Miami defense sucks and I assume at some point they will have to abandon run and throw a lot, which doesn’t hurt achane chances of scoring at all !
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
I would think achane to score is solid but I feel like +103 is such a sucker line. He always plays well vs buffalo and scored last two games.
I like Palmer yds over & TD haven't looked at the actual lines yet. 2nd most targeted on the team and he'll score eventually. I think Allen can pick apart the Fins secondary but he wants to get Palmer that TD
I like Palmer yds over & TD haven't looked at the actual lines yet. 2nd most targeted on the team and he'll score eventually. I think Allen can pick apart the Fins secondary but he wants to get Palmer that TD