DFS/Props Week 3 2025 Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thursday Night/Showdown Slate
MIA@BUF
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Tua has a bad pass potential. Achane has a great rush potential.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Cook has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 5th (meh).
- Achane had 21 opps, 10 targets, last week, playing over 90% of snaps and this was in a dominantly neutral game script, he has such a good floor with big upside, it is hard not to slot him in your lineup. Waddle is just not priced far enough away from Hill for me, so I will be underweight, the only positive he has is his RZ targets from Tua, otherwise Hill has his target share beat (22% to 18.5%), as well as aDOT, 16.2 to 10.8. Washington is playing 60% of snaps a game, and is averaging 5.5~ opps a game, if he plays, he is a low price option that can be targetted, if he is out, Ikhine jumps up. Neither TE was targetted last week, but in wk1 Conner had 4 targets (1 rz target), he is almost min priced at $800, 1 catch practically pays off his salary, and he could allow you to get the big dogs (this is assuming no waller). I think throwing in 1 or 2 of Washington/Conner, maybe Gordon/Ikhine (depending on injuries/etc) is the way to go.
Cook is averaging 20 opps (3targets/g), I obviously don't prefer him to Achane, and I like Allens floor/ceiling combo better, where I don't think you can get all 3 of these guys together. I will only have cook if mass entering and you want to get leverage/hope that all the TDs funnel through him, or in a BUF onslaught stack, where they win by like 24+ and put up 40+. I think picking the correct one (at the least 1) of the 3 WRs is where most lineups will be won or lost. The 3 WRs all see playing time Coleman/Shakier/Palmer are averaging 71/61/57% of snaps, 20%/16%/17% of targets, and 11.3/9.1/13.5 aDOTs, while all having multiple RZ targets already. I am most inclined to take Palmer as he is the cheapest of the bunch, with the biggest aDOT, and not that much lower snap/target share, followed by coleman than shakir. Kindcaid did not to much more than Knox last week, and he is more than doubled his price, I won't have him in my roster, while I think Knox (and palmer) can be added to that cheap group I mentioned with MIA above.
MIA@BUF
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Tua has a bad pass potential. Achane has a great rush potential.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Cook has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 5th (meh).
- Achane had 21 opps, 10 targets, last week, playing over 90% of snaps and this was in a dominantly neutral game script, he has such a good floor with big upside, it is hard not to slot him in your lineup. Waddle is just not priced far enough away from Hill for me, so I will be underweight, the only positive he has is his RZ targets from Tua, otherwise Hill has his target share beat (22% to 18.5%), as well as aDOT, 16.2 to 10.8. Washington is playing 60% of snaps a game, and is averaging 5.5~ opps a game, if he plays, he is a low price option that can be targetted, if he is out, Ikhine jumps up. Neither TE was targetted last week, but in wk1 Conner had 4 targets (1 rz target), he is almost min priced at $800, 1 catch practically pays off his salary, and he could allow you to get the big dogs (this is assuming no waller). I think throwing in 1 or 2 of Washington/Conner, maybe Gordon/Ikhine (depending on injuries/etc) is the way to go.
Cook is averaging 20 opps (3targets/g), I obviously don't prefer him to Achane, and I like Allens floor/ceiling combo better, where I don't think you can get all 3 of these guys together. I will only have cook if mass entering and you want to get leverage/hope that all the TDs funnel through him, or in a BUF onslaught stack, where they win by like 24+ and put up 40+. I think picking the correct one (at the least 1) of the 3 WRs is where most lineups will be won or lost. The 3 WRs all see playing time Coleman/Shakier/Palmer are averaging 71/61/57% of snaps, 20%/16%/17% of targets, and 11.3/9.1/13.5 aDOTs, while all having multiple RZ targets already. I am most inclined to take Palmer as he is the cheapest of the bunch, with the biggest aDOT, and not that much lower snap/target share, followed by coleman than shakir. Kindcaid did not to much more than Knox last week, and he is more than doubled his price, I won't have him in my roster, while I think Knox (and palmer) can be added to that cheap group I mentioned with MIA above.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
GBP@CLV
Packers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Browns have a bad P/RB matchup.
Love has a good pass potential. Jacobs has a meh rush potential.
Flacco has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Packers TTR is 3rd (good)
Browns TTR is 26th (bad/last)
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is T-12th (meh).
- Packers are interesting, I think a lot of people 1) fear which WR will get the work, and 2) will go RB+D because of the big spread/bad TT for CLV, and I'm not saying that doesn't make sense, but with no reed, and probably no kraft, and how cheap these WRs are, I think a bigger team stack can make sense, and honestly allows you to do anything with your lineup, Love + 2 pass catchers, maybe a CLV bring back (maybe....), anyways. Jacobs is nursing an injury, they're huge faves, and he has just 1 target on the season, I am not paying 7K for this, and if he 2 TDs+, then you beat me Josh... The 3 WRs remaining (not looking at you williams/heath), but Golden/Doubs/Wicks all have aDOTs at 18.8 or higher, which is insane, and if both Reed and Kraft are out, that is almost 33% of targets opening up. while I want golden the least, I will include him a little bit, but I will be doing a handful of Love + Doubs/Wicks (sometimes golden, and sometimes musgrave (if no kraft), Musgrave an interesting punt play as a one-off option as well.
Flacco has 90 pass attempts through 2 games... on PPR sites, you can always save a CLV pass catcher as a one-off at the least. Juedy, Tillmam, or one of the TEs? I am probably off the TEs, we saw the Fannin hype, I don't think he is gone, but his snaps/targets both went down in week 2. None of the trio of RBs even hit 50% of snaps, while I think Judkins will rise, I will wait until it is high enough to be played. But Jeudy/Tillman are interchangeable, Tillman a dot cheaper, and has 2 RZ targets on the season (to Jeudy's 0), so I guess I'd lean there.
NYJ@TBB
Jets have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucs have a great P/RB matchup.
Fields? has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Hall has a bad rush potential.
Bucky/White have a great rush potential.
Jets TTR is 24th (meh).
Bucs TTR is 2nd (good).
Pace of play is T-10th (meh). O/U Rank is T-7th
- 4 to wilson, 4 to backs Am I crazy for thinking Taylor can be played in tourneys? 4.8K for QB always scream possible value (see Mac Jones last week), but we know he will use his legs (he had 21 yards rushing in 2 drives last week), and it looks like we will get concentrated targets, in his 11 attempts last week, 4 went to Wilson, and 4 went to his RBs. I don't think people will be in a rush to run to Hall again, or Wilson, but I don't have taking a stab on that small stack. Looking deeper, I want to note T. Johnson played 96% of snaps last week and is the clear WR2 with Reynolds out, and he is the floor price at 3K, keep him in your mind if trying a stars and scrubs build.
We need to take a wait and see approach here, because we don't know Egbuka/Godwins status, but if both are out, just like johnson above, S. Shepard is another scrub to consider. If in, I can't click egbuka over Evans, when evans domiantes him in target%/aDOT, and they are only $300 in difference, not that I don't like him, but eventually Evans regression will return upwards, he has more Rz targets then Egbuka, despite losing the TD category 0 to 3. Bucky is playing 70%+ of snaps and is averaging 5 targets/g, he has a safe floor with TD upside, he is getting expensive, I know White can vulture, I'll most likely be underweight, but if you have conviction, fire him up. Otton is an emptyless trackstar, I'll circle him if the WRs are out, but otherwise I am probably passing.
LAR@PHI
Rams have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stafford has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Hurts has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Barkley has a great rush potential.
Rams TTR is T-19th.
Eagles TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 16th (bad/last). O/U Rank is T-4th
- conundrum here, I think nobody plays this game, the PHI WR problem has been addressed, the defenses are good, the pace is slowwww, neither team abandons the run, but the only reason to go here, is the offenses are technically concentrated, and they may go super low owned. I will keep it just to one-offs here and there, but if you are mass entering, and wanted to do a big game stack just incase this game pops off, this is T-4th for the highest total of the week, so there's a path. Anyways, Kyren is the bellcow, averaging 19.5 opps a game, but just 2 targets/g, I am not totally in love with that, but his price is fair, I probably don't go here. There is almost no reason to go Nacua, minus a big game stack, because Adams is 1.5K cheaper, and has better metrics (Target share/aDOT, and a massive 5 RZ targets to date, my favorite one-off from this side. Pass at TE.
Barkley has slate breaking upside, he hasn't seen fewer than 23 opps (avg'ing 3.5 targets/g), I will be very underweight, but if you have conviction, you'll garner a ton of ownership. I most likely will be underweight the pass catchers as well, but if goedert is out I will be taking more shots on them again, hey are starting to drop in price, and they combined for a 67% target share last week, can we see scenarios where they are playing from behind? I could.
LVR@WAS
Raiders have a meh P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Geno has a meh pressure rate situation. Jeanty has a bad rush potential.
Daniels has a bad pressure rate situation.
Raiders TTR is T-19th.
Commanders TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 2nd (great). O/U Rank is T-4th.
-I think Jeanty can be good, but getting 56% of snaps and losing 3rd down work when just behind by 2 possessions doesn't bode will for someone pushing 7K, maybe if daniels is out I'd consider a closer script and include him, but at this point it's a wasted space imo. There are a lot of cheap options, so I don't go here most likely, but Thorton has an aDOT 25+ on 8 targets, there will be a week where he hits one, what's really positive is he saw a jump of snaps from 60%+ to 80%+, so maybe a deep sleeper in redrafts if really thin at WR. Tucker is a worse aDOT version of him, but it's still good, and he is techinically the WR2, and cheaper than thornton, he quietly had a 19% target share (8 targets), and he is almost min priced, that is a value play imo, especially if you predict Geno to have 40+ pass attempts again, I'll consider if Daniels is in, the pace here is great. Meyers 29% target share has led him to b2b 10+ target games, He is obviously the one to be overweight on here in PPR formats especially. Bowers feels to expensive, but he actually played more with the injury than week1, and apparently no setbacks, so maybe you can consider him over meyers, since it feels like nobody wants to pay up for him with a lot of really good TEs carving roles in offenses that are cheaper (warren/juwan/ferguson/etc.), he is strictly a tourney pivot/leverage play.
We only have 1 semi example of Mariota playing, and he had 200 passing yards, 2 TDs and 11 rush attempts in 86% of a game and where it was a blowout win (40-7 over Carolina week 7 last year), He is the floor price at 4K, and I think he is totally in play, 4x';ing this with a 16 point day seems like his floor honestly, especially if they remain aggressive, and don't like change their consistent pace to much. Mclaurin/Deebo/Ertz are the only ones to consider as a stacking option, I am more inclined to throw away Ertz, but I get it, he did hit him from a TD last year, he has scored in both of his last games, he just doesn't get me up, ya know. McLaurin being in the 5K range makes him my #1 option, then Ertz, than Deebo.
Steelers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Pats have a great P/RB matchup.
Warren~ has a bad rush potential.
Maye has a great pass potential.
Steelers TTR is 12th.
Pats TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-4th.
- In neutral to positive pass scripts to start the year, Rodgers is averaging 31.5~ pass attempts/g, no pass a catcher has a 22% target share, so who's getting to 7~ targets here?... unless you see the Pats coming out to a lead and maintaining it, I don't really want any of these pass catchers despite what looks like a great matchup. I'd add Metcalf has a bad aDOT of under 6, but Austin as a big one of 17.3, and he's only 4K, so I guess I wouldn't mind him as a one-off. Warren played 58% of snaps last week, and he's averaging 3 targets/g, it's an ok price at 5.5K, but there's uncertainty, and a range of outcomes I don't like here.
You just can not play henderson, even in redrafts, until proven otherwise, he is barely seeing 1/3rd of snaps, and is priced higher than stevenson, despite just 5 opps. last week. Stevenson on the other hand had 16 opps (5 targets --- both more than Warren above), and plays 2/3rds of snaps, while he has this role in tact, and he is priced here, I think he is viable. Maye is cheap, we know he can get to 10+ rush attempts as well, his pass catchers are cheap as well, the problem is none are even at an 18% target share..... do I think you can dart throw one into tourneys and hope for the best? yes. Will I be doing it? Probably not.
ATL@CAR
Falcons have a good P/RB matchup.
Panthers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Penix has a good pass potential. Bijan has a good rush potential.
Young has a meh pass potential. Hubbard has a meh rush potential.
Falcons TTR is T-4th (good).
Panthers TTR is 23rd (meh).
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- Atlanta is projecting to play with a lead, last week they ran the ball 62%~ of the time (top in the year), if you expect this game to go this way again, you can not play these pass catchers. Bijan on the other hand, looks like a stud/slate breaker, in last weeks script he had 27 opps, with 5 targets still, totaling 168 yards, he is probably the only one I'd have. I'll just note Mooney feels cheap at 4.5K, as he jumped right back into the WR2 role, playing almost 90% of snaps in a blowout win. Pitts has some decent metrics for his price, I just like other TEs more.
They lowered Youngs salary to 5K, he is coming off a game where he had 55 pass attempts, I like other cheap options around him, but if they are in a similar script, I have some interest in pass catchers, but I want to take note that they have no problem throwing in when they are in the redzone, as 4 of their WRs have a combined 15 RZ targets already, so I do think he can get there. I'll probaby use these guys at one-offs at best anyways, but Renfrow has 5 of those RZ targets, and he is only 3.7K, I know McMillan is the player we all prefer, but he is 2.2K higher, and isn't that much more separated than renfrow. Last guy I'll note is Sanders, he is cheap for a TE, has a decent aDOT of 8.1, and has 4 RZ targets on the season, 1 TD catch and he pays off his salary, yet he is coming off a 9 target (17%) game. I'm passing on Hubbard this week, I noted there willingness to throw in the redzone, as well as a tough matchup on paper. While he has a safe PPR floor with 5/6 targets in L2 games, he has yet to hit 20opps, and he is priced over 6K, now if they get a game in a neutral to positive run script, lets see what he can do (my fantasy teams will be happy). Bi
HOU@JAC
Texans have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jags have a good P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Etienne has a great rush potential.
Texans TTR is 18th.
Jaguars TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 13th (bad). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- Chubb is averaging 14opps (1.5 targets/g), through 2 games, all played in a neutral script, and he hasn't hit over 53% of snaps, for me that is kind of hard to trust, while I think he will be the goalline back at the least, so 2 TD games will be there, I don't like how he had 11 attempts for 18 yards prior to his 25 yard td last week, I'll probably pass. The WR spot is a mess for HOU, as they had like 4 guys cycle in and out (31-57% of snaps between them), if Kirk sits, I don't want any part of this, if he plays, he can be considered. Collins on the other hand is due for some positive regression. He has had a 28% target share and 4 RZ targets, and is practically out there every play, I will have him in lineups.
I think Etienne is a fine play he is steady in his role (atleast for now) playing about 2/3rds of snaps, he has had a 3 target floor, and I think his ownership will be suppressed because of the Tuten hype. I won't be overweight, but I'm not x'ing him out. I am all for Brian Thomas this week, Of his 19 targets, apparently only 8? were catchable, and his wrist injury doesn't look serious, he has had a 27% target share, with a good 13.6 aDOT, it is only a matter of time. Now I hate going with the consensus, as I know what Hunter is capable of, but Dyami Brown plays more, he has had 1.5 less targets/g than him, but has a bigger aDOT (10 to 6.4), and he is cheaper, it is hard for me to click hunter with that staring at me. Pass on strange, I thought he would step into the engram role well, but he hasn't done much outside of the first drive of the season, please prove it to me (my redraft leagues are hoping too).
CIN@MIN
Bengals have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Vikings have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Browning has a bad pressure rate situation.
McCarthy has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Bengals TTR is 21st (meh).
Vikings TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 6th (meh). O/U Rank is 11th (meh).
- Browning has been serviceable in his past playing time, he has maintained the air yards/attempt as burrow, I just think his total attempts will be lower, as well as expected points/TDs, so while I still like his ability to pay off his salary, I have to downgrade higgins, at the least. but if people are off this offense as a whole, I think one-offing Chase or Chase could be a good option. Looking futher into it, Brown is priced high, yes he has 20opp~ range, with 3+ target range, but imo you need to downgrade his prospects, and he was only targetted twice by browning on 33 of his pass attempts. Chase however had 11 targets in 2.5 quarters with browning last week, I will take a chance at one-offing him at a low salary.
Another game, another backup QB starting at 4K, it's a nice matchup, and 2+ TDs easily pays off the salary, but I don't think I go here. I think in tourneys I want to be underweight mason, because a) he will be very popular, and b) you'd like to think CIN plays to stuff the box, so maybe he will have some empty opportunities. Not saying you should do this, but just a position I am making a stance on, I get it though, he should easily see 20+ opps, and have a safe floor, and is cheap. I did mention that the matchup is nice for Wentz, and can the passing production be worse than what McCarthy did? JJ feels a bit to expensive, but I think he will be in the single digits in ownership, and if he can work to 100-1, you'll be happy with that, but when you look at collins/lamb/etc, priced around him, it's almost like why are we doing this? I think Hockenson could be the cute guy to take, I don't think anyone likes him anymore (especially those that have him in redrafts), and he may easily be the checkdown guy for Wentz. Nailor over Thielen.
IND@TEN
Colts have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Titans have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
D. Jones has a good pressure rate situation. Taylor has a great rush potential.
Ward has a meh pass potential.
Colts TTR is T-9th (good).
Titans TTR is 22nd (meh).
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- Taylor is a guy, like Bijan, that you can just click, and probably be very happy with what you get. He plays practically every snap, had 27 opps (2targets) last week, and actually feels like he is priced a bit low (despite being 7k). Warren has already ramped up to over 90% of snaps, and has a 26% target share in his first 2 starts, that's ranked 4th among TEs. I think he can totally be played if you like him, but I like the idea of paying slightly more down for Juwan Johnson or Jake Ferguson who have been in similar roles/metrics, or going all the way up to McBride and his almost 30% target share (which I'll repeat later). At WR you go Pittman for PPR, as his aDOT isn't great but he leads the core in target share, or Alex Pirece for HR hits because he plays the most by far (for what feels like 2+ years now), and has a big aDOT of 17.6.
It stinks Pollard isn't getting the targets (avg. 1/g) which is upsetting, but he has now played 89% of snaps in both of his games, and is a lock for 20+ opps, you can't cross him off while in the 5K range, if he just gets a few more targets, he could be a smash. I have Ayomanor in so many redrafts, very happy, but he still grades out better than Ridley with almost an identical target share, but a 15.5 aDOT (to Ridleys 10), and he's somehow 3.7K!!! I obviously think Ridley can outperform him, but Ayomanor is sooo cheap. Pass else where.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
NOS@SEA
Saints have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Seahawks have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Kamara has a meh rush potential.
Darnold has a good pass potential.
Saints TTR is 25th (meh).
Seahawks TTR is T-4th (good).
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is T-12th.
- Pace of this game is great, and the amount of pass attempts for the Saints through 2 is 40 attempts/g. I think this entire offense is practically one-offable on PPR sites. Kamara is coming off a 27 opp (6 targets) game, and he is still low 6K, his floor is great, with obvious upside. Olave hasn't seen fewer than 10 targets yet, and has a 40% air yard share in this offense, he doesn't break the bank, he's seen RZ work, I get it if you want him. Ju. Johnson, almost like Olave, hasn't seen fewer than 9 targets yet, with a decent aDOT for a TE at 7.2, he's playing practically every snap on this offense, and has had 3 RZ targets so far, he's just 3.9K and one of my favorite plays.
We got a 5.8K Ken Walker with no Charb, only reason not to play him is for leverage, but I will be playing him. If you are avoiding walker, than you have to consider JSN --- not many lineups will be including the 2, and he is, by far, the highest graded WR through 2 weeks, with a massive 44% target share, and a 12.2 aDOT. if you think either they onslaught, stack them all, or if competitive, maybe get different and play him over walker, idk, but I want both in lineups. Kupp is fine if he gets his last week usage, but his aDOT of 6.6 doesn't get me up, and I'd rather go elsewhere.
DEN@LAC
Broncos have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chargers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Nix has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Herbert has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Hampton/Najee have a bad rush potential.
Broncos TTR is 15th.
Chargers TTR is T-4th (good).
Pace of play is T-10th (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- No back hit over 45% last week, I am not playing this rotation with so many other options. The WRs are frustrating here, I actually like Nix, but I'd play him naked with no supporting cast. The volume is typically low, and when factoring price, Franklin grades out better than Sutton, maybe I'd throw him in a tourney lineup where mass entering.
Only a 2 game sample size, but Hamptons usage went down last week, and Herbert isn't targeting the backfield much, I'll be passing here (despite multiple RZ attempts he has not converted). These 3 WRs is practically where everything is funneled through in this passing offense, they have a combined 73% target share, none lower than 23%. McConkey actually grades out the worst, even without factoring in his highest price tag. Allen at 4.7K seems to cheap, and nobody may be playing him, he's had a 28% target share through 2 games, great for PPR sites, especially if you project a trailing game script.
DAL@CHI
Cowboys have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Bears have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Dak has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Jav. Williams has a good rush potential.
Cowboys TTR is 1st (good).
Bears TTR is T-4th (good).
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- This will be the number on targeted game, and rightfully so, as these defenses have not looked good, the total is the highest of the week, and the pace is good.
My drafts where I went 0 RB I attempted to draft Javonte as he was one of the last "starting" rbs taken off the board very late in the drafts, and man has it paid off, he is just 6.1K despite 21.5 opps/g (5 targets/g), he also hasn't played fewer than 71% of snaps, I think he is a fine play. Lamb has yet to see fewer than 11 targets, I think he has slate breaking upside that we have not seen yet and if you can get him in, I'd do it. If mass entering, I think i'd have a share or two of tolbert, obviously pickens too, but I think his overall exposure will be to much for me, and I'll be very underweight. I like a handful of TEs, so I know i'll be underweight Ferguson, but I think I may regret it, but I can't play everyone.... he has a good 21% target share, with an ok 6.2 aDOT, I think he is viable.
It is early in the season, but I wish I had more Odunze than Moore, he has a big time 30% target share, compared to Moores 16.5%, again, I will be targetting this game, as mini stacks, one-offs, game stacks, etc. I think most go to Odunze, rightfully so, but I will be adding in Moore for a bounceback, they have the same aDOT as well. Kmet solely for mass entering dart throw/exposure to this game. Idk what to do with swift with his banged up-ness, his usage has been good in terms of opp, which makes 5.6K seem cheap, but his snaps did drop last week. If out, obviosuly monangai at 4.1K (maybe roshcon at 4K) are too cheap.
ARI@SFO
Cards have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
M. Jones has a great pressure rate situation. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Cards TTR is 17th.
49ers TTR is 8th (good).
Pace of play is 14th (bad). O/U Rank is 3rd.
- Conner is in no go territory, he looks to be losing snaps, and had just 1 target last week. He is still priced like a cheaper end bellcow but isn't that. Benson had 9 opps (6 targets), at 4.5K, and if you expect even more usage, I think you can take a shot in tourneys where mass entering, a TD and some catches, he more than pays off his salary. MHJ is cheap enough to consider, I just wish he had more volume (I'll note he does have 3 RZ targets). Mi. Wilson has a big 17.5 aDOT, he is just a cheap punt/dart throw option. McBride almost has a 30% target share, which gives him a big floor, if I can afford him, I'll play him, otherwise I'll go down to slightly lesser versions of him (like Juwan/Warren/Ferguson/etc).
CMC had 20 opps (7 targets) with mac jones last week, if you want to play him, do it. If Jennings is out, all players receive a bump (bourne would be the cheapie), but if he is in, I am going to try and start him/pivot lineups to him where I can, he had a reallly good 27% target share last week (10 targets), he is so cheap for what he can do, and NOBODY will be on him because of the Q tag and 4PM start time.
GBP@CLV
Packers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Browns have a bad P/RB matchup.
Love has a good pass potential. Jacobs has a meh rush potential.
Flacco has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Packers TTR is 3rd (good)
Browns TTR is 26th (bad/last)
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is T-12th (meh).
- Packers are interesting, I think a lot of people 1) fear which WR will get the work, and 2) will go RB+D because of the big spread/bad TT for CLV, and I'm not saying that doesn't make sense, but with no reed, and probably no kraft, and how cheap these WRs are, I think a bigger team stack can make sense, and honestly allows you to do anything with your lineup, Love + 2 pass catchers, maybe a CLV bring back (maybe....), anyways. Jacobs is nursing an injury, they're huge faves, and he has just 1 target on the season, I am not paying 7K for this, and if he 2 TDs+, then you beat me Josh... The 3 WRs remaining (not looking at you williams/heath), but Golden/Doubs/Wicks all have aDOTs at 18.8 or higher, which is insane, and if both Reed and Kraft are out, that is almost 33% of targets opening up. while I want golden the least, I will include him a little bit, but I will be doing a handful of Love + Doubs/Wicks (sometimes golden, and sometimes musgrave (if no kraft), Musgrave an interesting punt play as a one-off option as well.
Flacco has 90 pass attempts through 2 games... on PPR sites, you can always save a CLV pass catcher as a one-off at the least. Juedy, Tillmam, or one of the TEs? I am probably off the TEs, we saw the Fannin hype, I don't think he is gone, but his snaps/targets both went down in week 2. None of the trio of RBs even hit 50% of snaps, while I think Judkins will rise, I will wait until it is high enough to be played. But Jeudy/Tillman are interchangeable, Tillman a dot cheaper, and has 2 RZ targets on the season (to Jeudy's 0), so I guess I'd lean there.
NYJ@TBB
Jets have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucs have a great P/RB matchup.
Fields? has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Hall has a bad rush potential.
Bucky/White have a great rush potential.
Jets TTR is 24th (meh).
Bucs TTR is 2nd (good).
Pace of play is T-10th (meh). O/U Rank is T-7th
- 4 to wilson, 4 to backs Am I crazy for thinking Taylor can be played in tourneys? 4.8K for QB always scream possible value (see Mac Jones last week), but we know he will use his legs (he had 21 yards rushing in 2 drives last week), and it looks like we will get concentrated targets, in his 11 attempts last week, 4 went to Wilson, and 4 went to his RBs. I don't think people will be in a rush to run to Hall again, or Wilson, but I don't have taking a stab on that small stack. Looking deeper, I want to note T. Johnson played 96% of snaps last week and is the clear WR2 with Reynolds out, and he is the floor price at 3K, keep him in your mind if trying a stars and scrubs build.
We need to take a wait and see approach here, because we don't know Egbuka/Godwins status, but if both are out, just like johnson above, S. Shepard is another scrub to consider. If in, I can't click egbuka over Evans, when evans domiantes him in target%/aDOT, and they are only $300 in difference, not that I don't like him, but eventually Evans regression will return upwards, he has more Rz targets then Egbuka, despite losing the TD category 0 to 3. Bucky is playing 70%+ of snaps and is averaging 5 targets/g, he has a safe floor with TD upside, he is getting expensive, I know White can vulture, I'll most likely be underweight, but if you have conviction, fire him up. Otton is an emptyless trackstar, I'll circle him if the WRs are out, but otherwise I am probably passing.
LAR@PHI
Rams have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stafford has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Hurts has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Barkley has a great rush potential.
Rams TTR is T-19th.
Eagles TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 16th (bad/last). O/U Rank is T-4th
- conundrum here, I think nobody plays this game, the PHI WR problem has been addressed, the defenses are good, the pace is slowwww, neither team abandons the run, but the only reason to go here, is the offenses are technically concentrated, and they may go super low owned. I will keep it just to one-offs here and there, but if you are mass entering, and wanted to do a big game stack just incase this game pops off, this is T-4th for the highest total of the week, so there's a path. Anyways, Kyren is the bellcow, averaging 19.5 opps a game, but just 2 targets/g, I am not totally in love with that, but his price is fair, I probably don't go here. There is almost no reason to go Nacua, minus a big game stack, because Adams is 1.5K cheaper, and has better metrics (Target share/aDOT, and a massive 5 RZ targets to date, my favorite one-off from this side. Pass at TE.
Barkley has slate breaking upside, he hasn't seen fewer than 23 opps (avg'ing 3.5 targets/g), I will be very underweight, but if you have conviction, you'll garner a ton of ownership. I most likely will be underweight the pass catchers as well, but if goedert is out I will be taking more shots on them again, hey are starting to drop in price, and they combined for a 67% target share last week, can we see scenarios where they are playing from behind? I could.
LVR@WAS
Raiders have a meh P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Geno has a meh pressure rate situation. Jeanty has a bad rush potential.
Daniels has a bad pressure rate situation.
Raiders TTR is T-19th.
Commanders TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 2nd (great). O/U Rank is T-4th.
-I think Jeanty can be good, but getting 56% of snaps and losing 3rd down work when just behind by 2 possessions doesn't bode will for someone pushing 7K, maybe if daniels is out I'd consider a closer script and include him, but at this point it's a wasted space imo. There are a lot of cheap options, so I don't go here most likely, but Thorton has an aDOT 25+ on 8 targets, there will be a week where he hits one, what's really positive is he saw a jump of snaps from 60%+ to 80%+, so maybe a deep sleeper in redrafts if really thin at WR. Tucker is a worse aDOT version of him, but it's still good, and he is techinically the WR2, and cheaper than thornton, he quietly had a 19% target share (8 targets), and he is almost min priced, that is a value play imo, especially if you predict Geno to have 40+ pass attempts again, I'll consider if Daniels is in, the pace here is great. Meyers 29% target share has led him to b2b 10+ target games, He is obviously the one to be overweight on here in PPR formats especially. Bowers feels to expensive, but he actually played more with the injury than week1, and apparently no setbacks, so maybe you can consider him over meyers, since it feels like nobody wants to pay up for him with a lot of really good TEs carving roles in offenses that are cheaper (warren/juwan/ferguson/etc.), he is strictly a tourney pivot/leverage play.
We only have 1 semi example of Mariota playing, and he had 200 passing yards, 2 TDs and 11 rush attempts in 86% of a game and where it was a blowout win (40-7 over Carolina week 7 last year), He is the floor price at 4K, and I think he is totally in play, 4x';ing this with a 16 point day seems like his floor honestly, especially if they remain aggressive, and don't like change their consistent pace to much. Mclaurin/Deebo/Ertz are the only ones to consider as a stacking option, I am more inclined to throw away Ertz, but I get it, he did hit him from a TD last year, he has scored in both of his last games, he just doesn't get me up, ya know. McLaurin being in the 5K range makes him my #1 option, then Ertz, than Deebo.
Steelers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Pats have a great P/RB matchup.
Warren~ has a bad rush potential.
Maye has a great pass potential.
Steelers TTR is 12th.
Pats TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-4th.
- In neutral to positive pass scripts to start the year, Rodgers is averaging 31.5~ pass attempts/g, no pass a catcher has a 22% target share, so who's getting to 7~ targets here?... unless you see the Pats coming out to a lead and maintaining it, I don't really want any of these pass catchers despite what looks like a great matchup. I'd add Metcalf has a bad aDOT of under 6, but Austin as a big one of 17.3, and he's only 4K, so I guess I wouldn't mind him as a one-off. Warren played 58% of snaps last week, and he's averaging 3 targets/g, it's an ok price at 5.5K, but there's uncertainty, and a range of outcomes I don't like here.
You just can not play henderson, even in redrafts, until proven otherwise, he is barely seeing 1/3rd of snaps, and is priced higher than stevenson, despite just 5 opps. last week. Stevenson on the other hand had 16 opps (5 targets --- both more than Warren above), and plays 2/3rds of snaps, while he has this role in tact, and he is priced here, I think he is viable. Maye is cheap, we know he can get to 10+ rush attempts as well, his pass catchers are cheap as well, the problem is none are even at an 18% target share..... do I think you can dart throw one into tourneys and hope for the best? yes. Will I be doing it? Probably not.
ATL@CAR
Falcons have a good P/RB matchup.
Panthers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Penix has a good pass potential. Bijan has a good rush potential.
Young has a meh pass potential. Hubbard has a meh rush potential.
Falcons TTR is T-4th (good).
Panthers TTR is 23rd (meh).
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- Atlanta is projecting to play with a lead, last week they ran the ball 62%~ of the time (top in the year), if you expect this game to go this way again, you can not play these pass catchers. Bijan on the other hand, looks like a stud/slate breaker, in last weeks script he had 27 opps, with 5 targets still, totaling 168 yards, he is probably the only one I'd have. I'll just note Mooney feels cheap at 4.5K, as he jumped right back into the WR2 role, playing almost 90% of snaps in a blowout win. Pitts has some decent metrics for his price, I just like other TEs more.
They lowered Youngs salary to 5K, he is coming off a game where he had 55 pass attempts, I like other cheap options around him, but if they are in a similar script, I have some interest in pass catchers, but I want to take note that they have no problem throwing in when they are in the redzone, as 4 of their WRs have a combined 15 RZ targets already, so I do think he can get there. I'll probaby use these guys at one-offs at best anyways, but Renfrow has 5 of those RZ targets, and he is only 3.7K, I know McMillan is the player we all prefer, but he is 2.2K higher, and isn't that much more separated than renfrow. Last guy I'll note is Sanders, he is cheap for a TE, has a decent aDOT of 8.1, and has 4 RZ targets on the season, 1 TD catch and he pays off his salary, yet he is coming off a 9 target (17%) game. I'm passing on Hubbard this week, I noted there willingness to throw in the redzone, as well as a tough matchup on paper. While he has a safe PPR floor with 5/6 targets in L2 games, he has yet to hit 20opps, and he is priced over 6K, now if they get a game in a neutral to positive run script, lets see what he can do (my fantasy teams will be happy). Bi
HOU@JAC
Texans have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jags have a good P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Etienne has a great rush potential.
Texans TTR is 18th.
Jaguars TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 13th (bad). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- Chubb is averaging 14opps (1.5 targets/g), through 2 games, all played in a neutral script, and he hasn't hit over 53% of snaps, for me that is kind of hard to trust, while I think he will be the goalline back at the least, so 2 TD games will be there, I don't like how he had 11 attempts for 18 yards prior to his 25 yard td last week, I'll probably pass. The WR spot is a mess for HOU, as they had like 4 guys cycle in and out (31-57% of snaps between them), if Kirk sits, I don't want any part of this, if he plays, he can be considered. Collins on the other hand is due for some positive regression. He has had a 28% target share and 4 RZ targets, and is practically out there every play, I will have him in lineups.
I think Etienne is a fine play he is steady in his role (atleast for now) playing about 2/3rds of snaps, he has had a 3 target floor, and I think his ownership will be suppressed because of the Tuten hype. I won't be overweight, but I'm not x'ing him out. I am all for Brian Thomas this week, Of his 19 targets, apparently only 8? were catchable, and his wrist injury doesn't look serious, he has had a 27% target share, with a good 13.6 aDOT, it is only a matter of time. Now I hate going with the consensus, as I know what Hunter is capable of, but Dyami Brown plays more, he has had 1.5 less targets/g than him, but has a bigger aDOT (10 to 6.4), and he is cheaper, it is hard for me to click hunter with that staring at me. Pass on strange, I thought he would step into the engram role well, but he hasn't done much outside of the first drive of the season, please prove it to me (my redraft leagues are hoping too).
CIN@MIN
Bengals have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Vikings have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Browning has a bad pressure rate situation.
McCarthy has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Bengals TTR is 21st (meh).
Vikings TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 6th (meh). O/U Rank is 11th (meh).
- Browning has been serviceable in his past playing time, he has maintained the air yards/attempt as burrow, I just think his total attempts will be lower, as well as expected points/TDs, so while I still like his ability to pay off his salary, I have to downgrade higgins, at the least. but if people are off this offense as a whole, I think one-offing Chase or Chase could be a good option. Looking futher into it, Brown is priced high, yes he has 20opp~ range, with 3+ target range, but imo you need to downgrade his prospects, and he was only targetted twice by browning on 33 of his pass attempts. Chase however had 11 targets in 2.5 quarters with browning last week, I will take a chance at one-offing him at a low salary.
Another game, another backup QB starting at 4K, it's a nice matchup, and 2+ TDs easily pays off the salary, but I don't think I go here. I think in tourneys I want to be underweight mason, because a) he will be very popular, and b) you'd like to think CIN plays to stuff the box, so maybe he will have some empty opportunities. Not saying you should do this, but just a position I am making a stance on, I get it though, he should easily see 20+ opps, and have a safe floor, and is cheap. I did mention that the matchup is nice for Wentz, and can the passing production be worse than what McCarthy did? JJ feels a bit to expensive, but I think he will be in the single digits in ownership, and if he can work to 100-1, you'll be happy with that, but when you look at collins/lamb/etc, priced around him, it's almost like why are we doing this? I think Hockenson could be the cute guy to take, I don't think anyone likes him anymore (especially those that have him in redrafts), and he may easily be the checkdown guy for Wentz. Nailor over Thielen.
IND@TEN
Colts have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Titans have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
D. Jones has a good pressure rate situation. Taylor has a great rush potential.
Ward has a meh pass potential.
Colts TTR is T-9th (good).
Titans TTR is 22nd (meh).
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is T-7th.
- Taylor is a guy, like Bijan, that you can just click, and probably be very happy with what you get. He plays practically every snap, had 27 opps (2targets) last week, and actually feels like he is priced a bit low (despite being 7k). Warren has already ramped up to over 90% of snaps, and has a 26% target share in his first 2 starts, that's ranked 4th among TEs. I think he can totally be played if you like him, but I like the idea of paying slightly more down for Juwan Johnson or Jake Ferguson who have been in similar roles/metrics, or going all the way up to McBride and his almost 30% target share (which I'll repeat later). At WR you go Pittman for PPR, as his aDOT isn't great but he leads the core in target share, or Alex Pirece for HR hits because he plays the most by far (for what feels like 2+ years now), and has a big aDOT of 17.6.
It stinks Pollard isn't getting the targets (avg. 1/g) which is upsetting, but he has now played 89% of snaps in both of his games, and is a lock for 20+ opps, you can't cross him off while in the 5K range, if he just gets a few more targets, he could be a smash. I have Ayomanor in so many redrafts, very happy, but he still grades out better than Ridley with almost an identical target share, but a 15.5 aDOT (to Ridleys 10), and he's somehow 3.7K!!! I obviously think Ridley can outperform him, but Ayomanor is sooo cheap. Pass else where.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
NOS@SEA
Saints have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Seahawks have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Kamara has a meh rush potential.
Darnold has a good pass potential.
Saints TTR is 25th (meh).
Seahawks TTR is T-4th (good).
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is T-12th.
- Pace of this game is great, and the amount of pass attempts for the Saints through 2 is 40 attempts/g. I think this entire offense is practically one-offable on PPR sites. Kamara is coming off a 27 opp (6 targets) game, and he is still low 6K, his floor is great, with obvious upside. Olave hasn't seen fewer than 10 targets yet, and has a 40% air yard share in this offense, he doesn't break the bank, he's seen RZ work, I get it if you want him. Ju. Johnson, almost like Olave, hasn't seen fewer than 9 targets yet, with a decent aDOT for a TE at 7.2, he's playing practically every snap on this offense, and has had 3 RZ targets so far, he's just 3.9K and one of my favorite plays.
We got a 5.8K Ken Walker with no Charb, only reason not to play him is for leverage, but I will be playing him. If you are avoiding walker, than you have to consider JSN --- not many lineups will be including the 2, and he is, by far, the highest graded WR through 2 weeks, with a massive 44% target share, and a 12.2 aDOT. if you think either they onslaught, stack them all, or if competitive, maybe get different and play him over walker, idk, but I want both in lineups. Kupp is fine if he gets his last week usage, but his aDOT of 6.6 doesn't get me up, and I'd rather go elsewhere.
DEN@LAC
Broncos have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chargers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Nix has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Herbert has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Hampton/Najee have a bad rush potential.
Broncos TTR is 15th.
Chargers TTR is T-4th (good).
Pace of play is T-10th (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- No back hit over 45% last week, I am not playing this rotation with so many other options. The WRs are frustrating here, I actually like Nix, but I'd play him naked with no supporting cast. The volume is typically low, and when factoring price, Franklin grades out better than Sutton, maybe I'd throw him in a tourney lineup where mass entering.
Only a 2 game sample size, but Hamptons usage went down last week, and Herbert isn't targeting the backfield much, I'll be passing here (despite multiple RZ attempts he has not converted). These 3 WRs is practically where everything is funneled through in this passing offense, they have a combined 73% target share, none lower than 23%. McConkey actually grades out the worst, even without factoring in his highest price tag. Allen at 4.7K seems to cheap, and nobody may be playing him, he's had a 28% target share through 2 games, great for PPR sites, especially if you project a trailing game script.
DAL@CHI
Cowboys have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Bears have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Dak has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Jav. Williams has a good rush potential.
Cowboys TTR is 1st (good).
Bears TTR is T-4th (good).
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- This will be the number on targeted game, and rightfully so, as these defenses have not looked good, the total is the highest of the week, and the pace is good.
My drafts where I went 0 RB I attempted to draft Javonte as he was one of the last "starting" rbs taken off the board very late in the drafts, and man has it paid off, he is just 6.1K despite 21.5 opps/g (5 targets/g), he also hasn't played fewer than 71% of snaps, I think he is a fine play. Lamb has yet to see fewer than 11 targets, I think he has slate breaking upside that we have not seen yet and if you can get him in, I'd do it. If mass entering, I think i'd have a share or two of tolbert, obviously pickens too, but I think his overall exposure will be to much for me, and I'll be very underweight. I like a handful of TEs, so I know i'll be underweight Ferguson, but I think I may regret it, but I can't play everyone.... he has a good 21% target share, with an ok 6.2 aDOT, I think he is viable.
It is early in the season, but I wish I had more Odunze than Moore, he has a big time 30% target share, compared to Moores 16.5%, again, I will be targetting this game, as mini stacks, one-offs, game stacks, etc. I think most go to Odunze, rightfully so, but I will be adding in Moore for a bounceback, they have the same aDOT as well. Kmet solely for mass entering dart throw/exposure to this game. Idk what to do with swift with his banged up-ness, his usage has been good in terms of opp, which makes 5.6K seem cheap, but his snaps did drop last week. If out, obviosuly monangai at 4.1K (maybe roshcon at 4K) are too cheap.
ARI@SFO
Cards have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
M. Jones has a great pressure rate situation. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Cards TTR is 17th.
49ers TTR is 8th (good).
Pace of play is 14th (bad). O/U Rank is 3rd.
- Conner is in no go territory, he looks to be losing snaps, and had just 1 target last week. He is still priced like a cheaper end bellcow but isn't that. Benson had 9 opps (6 targets), at 4.5K, and if you expect even more usage, I think you can take a shot in tourneys where mass entering, a TD and some catches, he more than pays off his salary. MHJ is cheap enough to consider, I just wish he had more volume (I'll note he does have 3 RZ targets). Mi. Wilson has a big 17.5 aDOT, he is just a cheap punt/dart throw option. McBride almost has a 30% target share, which gives him a big floor, if I can afford him, I'll play him, otherwise I'll go down to slightly lesser versions of him (like Juwan/Warren/Ferguson/etc).
CMC had 20 opps (7 targets) with mac jones last week, if you want to play him, do it. If Jennings is out, all players receive a bump (bourne would be the cheapie), but if he is in, I am going to try and start him/pivot lineups to him where I can, he had a reallly good 27% target share last week (10 targets), he is so cheap for what he can do, and NOBODY will be on him because of the Q tag and 4PM start time.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday Night/Showdown Slate
KCC@NYG
Chiefs have a great rush potential, good P potential.
Giants have a great P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has a good pass potential. Pacheco has a good rush potential.
Russ? has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Tracy/Skattebo have a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 14th (bad).
- Notes
KCC@NYG
Chiefs have a great rush potential, good P potential.
Giants have a great P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has a good pass potential. Pacheco has a good rush potential.
Russ? has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Tracy/Skattebo have a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 14th (bad).
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
DET@BAL
Lions have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Ravens have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Lamar has a good pressure rate situation. Henry has a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is 15th (bad).
- We've had 2 detriot games, and neither of them really have had a neutral script yet, so it is hard to gauge usage. If you think DET plays with a lead, I probably talk you off the high price tag of Gibbs, but in any other scenario, the guy has slate breaking upside, and a nice PPR floor, I think he is viable. Montgomery on PPR sites is always a no go for me. ASB is averaging 2 RZ targets/g so far, and even in the blowout win he got up to 11 targets, which makes me think he is practically script proof and my favorite play on the slate, which kind of leaves gibbs on the back burner. Is TeSlaa really going to get increased playing time week 3? Last weeks jump could be due to the blowout win, but Raymond is still playing over 50% of snaps, and is priced at 2K, imo he is the cheap punt option you can take and be fine with. Only other one to consider, especially if you don't want raymond is Wright, he's coming off a 3 target game, with a RZ look (a TD), I just think most go here, when Raymond will get lower exposure and has a higher ceiling. I think you can pick your posion with the ancillary WRs, Bateman plays the most and is cheaper than Dhop, I guess Wallace for a HR hit, idk. if mass entering, mix and match them.
Henry is henry, when you don't take him he breaks your heart, when you do take him, he breaks your heart. He is so expensive (rightfully so) but without any PPR floor, he is scary as well, I will be underweight on him, like most weeks. I'd only consider Hill if you build a scenario where DET plays with a 2+ possession lead (where I'd also be stacking him with Montgomery, maybe det D). Flowers has been DYNAMITE. He has a huge 43% target share through 2 games, but this is accompanied with a 11.25 aDOT, I remember prior year that there was a big string of games where his aDOT was lower single digits, and we didn't like that, but now he is doing both, and I think he can smash. I know he hasn't been good, but Andrews is still playing 80% of snaps, and has 2 RZ looks already, while I am not in love with clicking his name I do think he can be one of the TD scorers here which makes him viable at his price.
DET@BAL
Lions have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Ravens have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Lamar has a good pressure rate situation. Henry has a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is 15th (bad).
- We've had 2 detriot games, and neither of them really have had a neutral script yet, so it is hard to gauge usage. If you think DET plays with a lead, I probably talk you off the high price tag of Gibbs, but in any other scenario, the guy has slate breaking upside, and a nice PPR floor, I think he is viable. Montgomery on PPR sites is always a no go for me. ASB is averaging 2 RZ targets/g so far, and even in the blowout win he got up to 11 targets, which makes me think he is practically script proof and my favorite play on the slate, which kind of leaves gibbs on the back burner. Is TeSlaa really going to get increased playing time week 3? Last weeks jump could be due to the blowout win, but Raymond is still playing over 50% of snaps, and is priced at 2K, imo he is the cheap punt option you can take and be fine with. Only other one to consider, especially if you don't want raymond is Wright, he's coming off a 3 target game, with a RZ look (a TD), I just think most go here, when Raymond will get lower exposure and has a higher ceiling. I think you can pick your posion with the ancillary WRs, Bateman plays the most and is cheaper than Dhop, I guess Wallace for a HR hit, idk. if mass entering, mix and match them.
Henry is henry, when you don't take him he breaks your heart, when you do take him, he breaks your heart. He is so expensive (rightfully so) but without any PPR floor, he is scary as well, I will be underweight on him, like most weeks. I'd only consider Hill if you build a scenario where DET plays with a 2+ possession lead (where I'd also be stacking him with Montgomery, maybe det D). Flowers has been DYNAMITE. He has a huge 43% target share through 2 games, but this is accompanied with a 11.25 aDOT, I remember prior year that there was a big string of games where his aDOT was lower single digits, and we didn't like that, but now he is doing both, and I think he can smash. I know he hasn't been good, but Andrews is still playing 80% of snaps, and has 2 RZ looks already, while I am not in love with clicking his name I do think he can be one of the TD scorers here which makes him viable at his price.
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2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Sounds like bills d pretty banged up. I love some achane to score at even money, but im greedy and really like achane + cook at +200.
Like Tua over 234.5 passing and ov 23.5 completions just cause Miami defense sucks and I assume at some point they will have to abandon run and throw a lot, which doesn’t hurt achane chances of scoring at all !
Like Tua over 234.5 passing and ov 23.5 completions just cause Miami defense sucks and I assume at some point they will have to abandon run and throw a lot, which doesn’t hurt achane chances of scoring at all !
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
I would think achane to score is solid but I feel like +103 is such a sucker line. He always plays well vs buffalo and scored last two games.
I like Palmer yds over & TD haven't looked at the actual lines yet. 2nd most targeted on the team and he'll score eventually. I think Allen can pick apart the Fins secondary but he wants to get Palmer that TD
I like Palmer yds over & TD haven't looked at the actual lines yet. 2nd most targeted on the team and he'll score eventually. I think Allen can pick apart the Fins secondary but he wants to get Palmer that TD
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
I played allen ov 1.5 td passes but that always scares me cause he can decide to run a few in any given week. I figure they can pretty much do whatever they want vs Miami d
Thank you as always
CJG
Well-Known Member
Radar an the hourly as of 8:15 look pretty good, if it does rain I don't see it being anything that will have a drastic affect on the game.
GL today Bank
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
My only worry here is every asshole in the world knows how god awful these defenses are and how bad they got embarrassed last week. Usually the nfl the total do the opposite of last week/perception league but I dunno how here? I don’t think last week was a fluke for Dallas d, the bears d could improve but I don’t see it vs Dallas o abd while they really beat up!!
At minimum rain or not CD over all day: kinda torn on Dak or Javonte? Odonze I think solid. That’s like minimum for me and since it the 3 o’clock window I’m sure I’ll have varies parleys needed them to cap individually, and I’ll prob do them all in one also.
CJG
Well-Known Member
Vegas is expecting points here with it being the second highest total sitting at 49.5 (DET/BAL) according to DK. I will be on Odunze anytime TD as I expect Ben Johnson to find ways to take advantage of a below average Dallas Secondary.
Tough not to like CD every week as you know he is going to see double digit targets. Not having Jaylon Johnson to try an attempt to slow down Pickens/CD makes things that much better
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
1PMs
R. Doubs Rec Yds 39.5 -112
M. Evans Rec Yds O66.5 -112
Aj. Brown Receptions O4.5 -140
T. McLaurin Receptions O3.5 -142
R. Stevenson Receptions O1.5 -176
Bi. Robinson Rush&Rec Yds O112.5 -114
N. Collins Rec Yds O70.5 -112
T. Hockenson Rec Yds O38.5 -112
J. Taylor Rush Attempts O20.5 -120
R. Doubs Rec Yds 39.5 -112
M. Evans Rec Yds O66.5 -112
Aj. Brown Receptions O4.5 -140
T. McLaurin Receptions O3.5 -142
R. Stevenson Receptions O1.5 -176
Bi. Robinson Rush&Rec Yds O112.5 -114
N. Collins Rec Yds O70.5 -112
T. Hockenson Rec Yds O38.5 -112
J. Taylor Rush Attempts O20.5 -120
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
4PMs
JSN Rec Yds O 70.5 -112 (dont mind walker rush&rec O
Ju. Johnson Receptions O4.5 -108 (Olave's isn't bad either, but this one looks off)
T. Franklin Rec Yds O42.5 -112
N. Harris Rush Attempts U7.5 -125
J. Conner Rush Yds U52.5 -112
CMC Receptions O4.5 -168
C. Lamb Rec Yds O81.5 -112
D. Moore Rec Yds O51.5 -112