DFS/Props Week 2 Discussion 2023

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
I know some have asked, so figured I'd get the ball rolling.

For those that don't remember, I'll try to get down general matchup information from a dfs/prop perspective as best as I can, but please jump in whether it is to add input, correct a mistake of mine, or if something is unclear. I'm sure all 3 are going to happen.

When reading the summaries I'll typically use great, good, meh, bad, those 4 terms are sectioned between ranked 32nd-25th, 24th-17th, 16th-9th, 8th-1st. Ie. Ekeler has a great RB matchup, because the opposing defense is ranked somewhere between 25th-32nd in DVOA vs the run (something like that).

Edit: I do sort pressure rate/asr, as well as line play/aly in top 1-5,6-10, and 23-27, 28-32, so you may see me say Great/Good, and Meh/Bad, 11-22 are not stated. My ranges (which may adjust) for Great/Good/Ignore/Meh/Bad TT's and O/U's will be this.
>24.5 >50
>23 >46.5
20-23 43-46.
<20 <43
<17 <40

Now since it is just Week 2, some of the data listed will undoubtedly be skewed, but as the season progresses it'll obviously get more accurate.\\
From a quick DFS perspective/summary, here were the top 10 milly maker lineups for DK (I typically use them, and usually refer to PPR formats)

1694622368622.png

As you can see from this, so far this season;

- WRs were used 100% of the time in the FLEX position (this is probably a combination of pricing not being caught up yet, and WRs having the highest ceiling of the 3 (rb/wr/te)).
- RB+Def stack were used 30%
- Atleast a QB Team Stack was used 90% of the time (always with atleast a WR)
- QB Game stack was used 60% of the time
- QB + WR + RB Stack was used 20% of the time.
- DEF was practically punted 90%~ of the time (SFO really only expensive one)

I'll share with you guys my best tourney lineup --- I typically play the 3$ 20 entry max, this placed 214th out of 198,176 entries.

1694622502180.png

As you can see, I went with a slightly to big of a game stack with 3 MIA + 2 LAC, paired with 2 GBP (RB + DEF), and then 2 punt WRs in Mingo/Nacua. Shoulda/woulda/coulda but wishing I went down to musgrave/henry and maybe tried to get up to even a flowers over mingo... would have been much stronger, but moving on to Week 2.

I'll get the baseline formats of each game down shortly.
 
Last edited:
Pace of play will be for all games unless MS (Main slate) is mentioned, O/U Rank will be for MS.

Don't have all these numbers yet, nor the ALY info, but I'll add if/when I can.

Thurs Night/Showdown Slate

MIN/PHI


Vikes have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Eagles have a good P/RB Matchup
Line info later.
No problems with pressure rates in either direction for both teams.
Pace of play is

- Injuries - MIN - I don't see OLine snap counts yet, but they are listed as #1's on depth chart, so I'm sure they played 99% of healthy snaps, but on O, C Bradbury is out, T Darrisaw is Q.
- PHI - On D, LB Dean (61%), CB Bradberry (90%), S Blankenship (98%) are out. DT Cox (62%) is Q. On O, RB Gainwell is out.

- Mattison finished with 15 total opportunities (4 targets) and played 73% of snaps, 8th best for a RB in week 1. There may look like there is risk as 6.5 dogs, but I think he is a good play, and you need to take a couple of this mid range priced guys, there is nobody that has safer volume in this range. I will never argue with anyone when it comes to Jeffersons 98% snap count, 12 target, 9.2 Air yards/reception, but he is obviously the most priced, and should see most of Slays attention. I'd rather pivot to Addison/Osborn. Both players had 6 targets last week, and aDOTs/r in the double digits. With no Bradberry, I think both could succeed, but I think most of my attention will actually be on Osborn. I predict he goes lower owned than the rookie who looked to have a better statline last week, but Osborn is cheaper, and played on 91% of snaps compared to Addison (56%). Hockenson is a safe floor guy, he had a 20% target share, but his aDOT/r was a measly 2.8, ugh. everyone knows Hunter Henry just lit this team up though too, so while I will have some of him, I won't be going overboard. He played just 75% of snaps, and if you want to jam in the top options, Oliver, the TE2, actually played on 47% of snaps, and had 3 targets... at $800, 1 catch pays off his salary, one flukey TD makes for extreme leverage/optimal.

I do not know what to do about this philly backfield. When there is uncertainty, there is usually leverage though, and lets add this is philly RBs, and nobody will play either.... I was ready to come in and say Swift played just 29% of snaps, and nobody will touch him with a 10ft pole, but that number should rise over the course of the season. However, Gainwell (62%) has a looming rib injury, which may push people to swift, and kind of makes me like gainwell if he suits up. See the problem? Idk yet what I'll do here, but nothing would suprise me, even Scott. The great thing about a team like PHI, is you know there is concentration in the offense. Both Brown and Smith had a 33% target share each, but Brown doubles his aDOT/r (10.1 to 5), if I can find the salary reasonably, he is the top choice, as the pricing is not to far gapped. Despite having just 2 targets, and playing in a game that had a neutral to negative game script, watkins still played 79% of snaps, 3 WR sets look to be there flavor regardless, and because of that he is certainly viable at 3K. Stoll played 20% of snaps, had 0 targets, just go oliver if you go this route. Goedert had 1 catch, despite playing 92% of snaps, yet he is somehow cheaper than all the main to middle options of both teams. I have no issues if you wanted to be overweight here.
 
Last edited:
1PMs/Main Slate

GBP/ATL


Packers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Falcons have a meh P/RB matchup.
Love has a good pressure rate (lower end) situation.
Packers TTR is ranked T-12th
Falcons TTR is ranked T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is . O/URank is 8th (meh).

- Injuries - GBP - On D, LB Walker (66%)/Gary (16%) are Q. On O, WRs Doubs/Watson are Q, RB Jones is Q.
- ATL - On D, LB Andersen (99%) is out, and

- From a general game perspective, I don't have a ton of interest in over exposure, or stacking this game too much. But individually, pieces could be had via salaries/injuries

Packers have had 2 stable backs for what feels like a lifetime, if Jones suits up, I'll probably pass on both, but keep in mind, they both played about 48/47% of snaps and had a total of 29 opportunities.... if Jones misses here, Dillon should easily be in line for 24+ total touches... even in a game they led they had 7 targets (3 for dillon), that's a good floor/ceiling combo for a 5.9K priced player. At WR, the packers had 5 play between 35 and 62% of snaps, and we don't know the health of Watson/Doubs yet.... also the one who had 62% was Dontayvion Wicks.... hard pass here, as I think it is a crapshoot, but if Watson suits up with no limitations, I can be convinced as a one-off, if he is out, I'd rather go with Reed, as he seems to be the deep threat, and shared for the team lead at WR for targets (5), but had a massive 15 aDOT/r, no other WR was over 6.5..... If you are streaming TEs weekly in FF, I'd consider picking up Musgrave (or Smythe --- more later), Musgrave had just 4 targets (one should have been a TD he twisted himself up on), but he had a solid aDOT/r of 13.7, which is lovely for a TE, and he is still so cheap.
How can we trust WR/TE's on ATL, idk if I can, I'd like to see them play from behind first before predicting it... because even last year they ran way to much when trailing. They are 4th in rush% to start the year, but the 3 above them? Browns, 2nd quarter positive game script for running, ravens 3rd quarter positive game script, cowboys 4th quarter positive game script, Falcons? Led by more than 7 with 4 minutes left in the 4th. They also had the fewest total plays of the 4 by a mile (72/58/55/48 respectively).... the WR/TEs had 8 targets on 22 pass plays, the 2 RBs had 9..... London/Pitts are cheap, but they may have to get cheaper if this continues.
Now, in saying all that, it seems the RBs look to be script proof.... now Bijan still comes at a price, and he had 63% of snaps, with 16 opportunities (6 targets), but allgeiers price went up just $100, and he had 18 total opps. (3 targets), both had atleast 5 yards/attempt, despite Carolina knowing what's coming.... I think Allgeier is extremely viable.

LVR/BUF

Raiders have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Garop has a good pressure rate situation.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation.
Raiders TTR is ranked T-19th (meh).
Bills TTR is ranked 1st (great).
Pace of play is . O/URank is T-3rd.

- Injuries - LVR - On O, WR Meyers is D, and WR Carter is Q.
- BUF - pretty clean since start of year.

- A quiet 22 opportunities (3 targets) and 80% snap count (T-3rd highest week 1 among RBs) for Mr. Jacobs. His price actually fell considerably and has a good matchup on paper minus a possible game script blowout, but even in a 1 to 2 TD game, he'll be there, and only means more opp for targets. He's on my radar/list. From a strictly volume based perspective I think Adams is a fine tournament leverage/pivot, as nobody will be playing him at that price range (nor wilson for that matter), as they'd rather have brown/lamb/chase/ridley/allen/etc, not sure if I go here, but he is worth a lineup or 2 if mass entering, as we know he can break a slate. I will add, he played 90% of snaps, had a 35% target share, with an aDOT/r of 10.5... and the guy who had a 38.5% target share (meyers) shouldn't be playing.
Despite mostly dink and dunks, the raiders just let russ have a solid 80%~ completion %, and outside of sutton, is was really a bunch of meh players out there. I think Allen is going to look to bounce bank, and has a great opp to do so. Just like the last 2 years, Gab Davis continues to play slightly more than Diggs, and is the bigger aDOT/r player, I'm not saying not to play Diggs, he had 13 targets (33% target share), but Davis comes $2,100 cheaper, and has the ability to hit homeruns, which is great for tourneys. Looks like Harty was the WR3 week 1, but he played just 22% of snaps, Knox/Kincaid played 84/80% respectively, I'm not going to play a guessing game each week with them, they both had 4 targets (10% target share), but I will say, Knox probably comes lower owned, he is a touch cheaper, and had a better aDOT/r than kincaid... if game or team stacking, and want to be a bit different, I guess I'd go him. They practically played in a neutral script last week and Cook had a solid 18 opps (6 targets), on just 59% of snaps. He is cheap enough to consider as a pivot off the popular Allen stacks for a team that has the highest TTR. Definitely viable.


BAL/CIN

Ravens have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bengals have a bad P/RB matchup.
Lamar has a meh pressure rate situation.
Ravens TTR is ranked 11th.
Bengals TTR is ranked 5th (great).
Pace of play is . O/URank is T-3rd.

- Injuries - BAL - On D, S Williams (31%) is out. On O, T Stanley, and C Linderbaum are out, both listed as 1's on depth chart, don't have snap numbers right now, but that's big. RB Dobbins is out, and TE Andrews is Q.
- CIN - On O, RB Evans is Q.

- So I know Dobbins is now out, and the BAL RBs come cheap, and they did just have 3 TDs in game 1, but you don't know which will get it if they do, plus lamar is still a vulture of sorts, oh and this OLine is now missing 2 pieces from Week 1. I actually really prefer Lamar here, I'm hoping those issues cause for more time/plays with the ball in his hands, it'll force him to scramble as well, which I like. It looks like BAL finally has found stable WRs as Flowers/OBJ played 84/92% of snaps!, sorry bateman/duvernay, but I won't be having you. Flowers had a solid 47.6% target share (10 targets), but a bad aDOT/r of 3. OBJ had just 3 targets, but he was the deep threat, with a sexier 18 aDOT/r. If Andrews suits up, I think I'll have some shares of him, with OBJ, if he doesn't I'll be heavier on Flowers, but I think everyone will go towards flowers, and OBJ makes a great toruney pivot (I will still have a bit of flowers).
Mixon played 62% of snaps, while I'd like to see that higher, he still had 18 opps (5 targets), I think he is always a fine play, safe floor, potential ceiling combo. I wouldn't cross him off, but idk if I go there. I'm passing on Irv. Smith, he played just 54% of snaps, low target share, and low aDOT/r. As far as the trio, they all played a ton last week, now that may be because they were playing from behind throughout, but boyd was the lowest at 84% of snaps... that kind of makes them all viable/atleast dart consideration. Higgins/Chase combined for over 54% of the targets though, and are obviously the 2 to own for bring backs, where boyd should be reserved for mass entering and wanting a pivot/leverage.

SEA/DET

Seahawks have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Lions have a great P/RB matchup.
Goff has the best pressure rate situation.
Geno has a meh pressure rate situation.
Seahawks TTR is ranked T-14th.
Lions TTR is ranked 3rd (great).
Pace of play is . O/U Rank is 2nd (good).

- Injuries - SEA - On O, T Cross is O. On D, LB Bush (26%) is Q.
- DET - On O, T Decker is D. On D, DE Paschal (26%), is Q.

- Walker was eerily similar to mixon, as I'd like to see a little bit more than 63% of snaps, but he still had 17 opps (5 targets), and he comes at a little bit of a cheaper price. This game has the possibility to be a shootout, and he would be a good pivot from the passing options on both sides. Overall, I probably won't be playing him, at least to much, but he is worth of consideration, and we have seen him break the slate/Carroll ride him like a bronco. One thing to keep in mind for upside compared to Week 1, the Seahawks ran the least amount of plays, and a regression to the mean should mean a boost for all players opportunities. Njigba's priced cheap enough to consider, he did play 59% of snaps and had a 20% target share (5 targets) but he also had the worst aDOT/r of -0.3, yes negative. Lockett played 88% of snaps, with just 4 targets and a meh aDOT/r, if you want to make an arguement for tourneys, sure, but give me the guy who also had a 20% target share, is not that much more expensive, and a great aDOT/r of 12 (Metcalf), over the rest. Pass at TE, like last year they don't just use one, and somehow never had more than a 43% snap share, no ty.
I know everyone is lining up to play Gibbs, and he obviously should see more opps/snaps (he had 9 opps 2 targets on 29% of snaps), but Montgomery played 79% of snaps and had 21 carries.... Lions are decent faves, and they were play in a neutral script, if playing with a lead., what's it going to be 65-35? at worst? for Montgomery. I obviously don't like the 0 targets of montgomery, but I'd rather have him over Gibbs if I go this route...if I do, not sure on my exposure just yet. What I do want is a cheap goff and these WRs. St. Brown might be >20% owned, but can you blame anyone? He played 94% of snaps good for T-6th week one, and had a 28% target share, with an ok 8.5 aDOT/r. What people should also be considering is Josh Reynolds, and his 70% snap rate, 22% target share, 13 aDOT/r, and at 3.7K... min price for WRs are 3K, that's blasphemy... he makes for a good game/team stacking partner, or a pivot off st.brown. Pass on Jones, least targetted, lowest snap count, and shortest aDOT/r.. reynolds cost 100 more.. come on. LaPorta actually played 85% of snaps, which you love to see for a cheap/dart throw TE, don't mind him in some roster constructions over reynolds.

LAC/TEN

Chargers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Titans have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Tanny has a great pressure rate situation
Herbert has a meh pressure rate situation
Chargers TTR is ranked 6th (good).
Titans TTR is ranked T-12th.
Pace of play is . O/URank is 5th.

- Injuries - LAC - On D, LB Kendricks (100%), LB Bosa are Q. On O, RB Ekeler is Q.
- TEN - On D, CB Fulton (32%), S Hooker (83%) are out. On O, WR Hopkins is Q.

- Ekeler played just 51% of snaps, yet managed 21 opps (5 targets), he was obviously super efficient, but his price went up, and the matchup is a little tougher... I can't stomach clicking his name this week with those factors. LAC has a much better matchup through the air, and it starts with Allen. He played 91% of snaps, and saw a massive 29% target share (9 targets), nobody else was over 16% (5 targets), while also having an ok aDOT/r of 8.3. I think he is a solid play, and will look to play him when I can. M. Williams is a fine pivot, he practically matched the aDOT/r of allen, but had just 5 targets, and 77% snap count... he is cheap enough to consider though. Do not play Quentin Johnston until he proves it, or injuries to the big guys.... he played just 27% of snaps and is more expensive than Palmer who saw 64%,. if you want to dart here, go with Palmer. Pass at TE, both played, both saw 3 targets, we have better situations elsewhere.
I want to say you can never cross Henry off your list, he has slate breaking upside, and is one of a couple of backs than can easily go 200+ 2+, having said that, he somehow played just 48% of snaps last week? Did I miss an injury or something?, Spears played more at 54%.... he still managed 18 opps (3 targets), but that really concerns me, and gives me pause.... idk if I'll have exposure there. I will say, spears seems like an important handcuff. If Hopkins plays, I'm playing him.... everyone will avoid him due to injury concern/reaggravation, but that low ownership is leverage, there is a definite script where they play from behind, he had a MASSIVE 39% target share week 1 (13 targets), with the best aDOT/r of all players on his team (8.6), this was on just 78% of snaps. Burks/Ikhgine had 90/81%, but it was Ikhine who led in targets 7 to 3.... he is cheaper than burks, and probably goes lower owned, he may be the better tournament play imo. If Hopkins is out, I'll probably turn to Chig, last year he was an aDOT guy if I remember correctly, and play 83% of snaps last week, he is a decent dart throw/cheap punt TE option if so.


CHI/TBB

Bears have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Buccaneers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation.
Bears TTR is ranked T-19th (meh).
Bucs TTR is ranked 10th,
Pace of play is . O/URank is 7th (meh).

- Injuries - CHI - On D, CBs Gordon (45%)/Blackwell (17%) are out.
- TBB - On D, CB Davis (100%) is out.

- I think I might lover over 41 points. Both QBs have top half of the league matchups, and baker should finally see time in the pocket. CHI/GBP last week at 56 points, I think this game might be one I pick one-offs from, as well as personally game stack. Fields finished with a mediocre 16~ DK points, but he had just 1 passing TD, and 2 turnovers... his rushing upside gives him such a big floor/ceiling combo, I don't want to miss it. Not a single RB played 40% of snaps last week... I know they played in a negative game script, but I'm passing until that's figured out, plus Fields can easily vulture some of their value too. The script may also have led to more 3 WR sets, but we need to see a bit more of how it will play out in coming weeks. They are all pretty cheap, and mixing and matchup, or going naked fields are all viable. I probably won't go for claypool... but Mooney saw 84% of snaps, led the team in target share (19.4%), 7 targets, and had the best aDOT/r of 11.8, and he is cheaper than Moore. I'll still have some of both though. I'd like Kmet to be cheaper to really consider... I may still take him, but his aDOT/r of 3 stinks, but he did have 7 targets 2 of which were RZ targets... and he had a couple multiple TD games in last years disappointing season, so I get it he did play 97% of snaps, T-2nd among TE's.
I know R. White was not that efficient, but he did have a 79% snap count, 19 opps (2 targets), you don't often get that volume at 5.5K, so I do think he's viable, not sure I want to go overboard though. What I do like here is the concentration that looks to be continuing with Baker... Evans had a 31% target share, with a decent aDOT/r of 9, godwin was a bit less at 19%, and 7.8, both are virtually priced the same... the projected great pressure rate situation makes me like evans more than godwin, but based off last week most probably agree... I wouldn't mind either, even alternating with a mini game stack with fields. Ironically, like Kmet, Otton actually had a 97% snap count, T-2nd among TE's.... unfortunatelym it only translated to 3 targets... I think he will have some nice floor weeks, and obviously the snaps are nice to see, but I may pass for now, especially because I don't want every piece of this offense.


KCC/JAC

Chiefs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Jags have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation.
Chiefs TTR is ranked 2nd (great).
Jags TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is . O/URank is 1st (great).

- Injuries - KCC - On O, TE Kelce/RB CEH are both Q.
- JAC - pretty clean since start of year.

- If CEH sits, I'll have interest in Pacheco at 5.7K, but won't go overboard. He did have just 12 opps (4 targets) Wk1 with 48% snap count, CEH had 7/22% I'd think most filter to Pacheco if he's out. 16~ volume floor at 5.7K could payoff, probably won't ever touch mckinnon. The KC WR room is a shitshow. 7 guys got snaps last week, 6 had atleast a 25% snap count, Moore had the most at 69% but had 3 catchless targets..... MVS seems to be the only guy I'll take a shot on unless Rice shows snap/target improvement. MVS had just 2 targets, but a huge aDOT/r of 23... so you're essentially going for the HR (Watson fits this too). Obviously if Kelce plays and isn't limited, he is always a dynamite option that can slate break.....
I obviously have no issues with Ridley, 81% snap count, 34% target share, 8.1 aDOT/r, but he comes at a price, and there's others in that range I like too... what I want to look at is Zay Jones --- sorry to those who drafted Kirk thinking he was the WR2, maybe that'll change but idk --- Jones played 89% of snaps (leading the WRs), to Kirks 60%, but he had a 22% target share to Kirks 9%, and had the biggest aDOT/r of 10.6... DKings also hasn't caught up to that, as he is priced cheaper than Kirk, I'll take it all day. Engram is fine, we've seen his spike weeks, he had a decent TE aDOT/r of 5.2, and 5 targets... I'd save him for game/team stacks, as opposed to one-offs. I like Etienne.... in a world where Lawrence and Co fail to hit projections, Etienne could be a huge leverage. He played 80% of snaps (T-3rd most among RBs), with a solid 23 opps (5 targets), oh and he's cheaper than all the big dogs, with similar usage, in an environment with the highest O/U.....

IND/HOU

Colts have a good P/RB matchup.
Texans have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Richardson has a bad pressure rate situation.
Colts TTR is ranked 16th.
Texans TTR is T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is . O/URank is 10th (bad).

- Injuries - IND - On O, TE Woods has been on IR, and now TE Granson is Q with an injury that popped up sat. If both are out.
- HOU - On D, S Pitre (45%) is out, S Ward has been out. On O, T Tunsil is Q.

- Moss is back, we saw Deon Jackson just play terribly, and turn the ball over, yet they still gave him a 71% snap count, and 19 opps (6 targets)... Moss comes in with no real threat IMO, a path to 20+ touches, and he is only 4.7K ... I understand fading the ownership in tournaments, you can make an arguement maybe richardson vultures, maybe jackson does come in on all 3rd downs and saps moss's ppr value, but sometimes you need to just bite the bullet, becuase the price is egregious, you decide. Richardson seems to like Pittman, and god I hope this continues for my redraft leagues. He saw a 28% target share, with just a 6.1 aDOT/r , but no WR was better in either category. I'll add downs did see 7 targets himself (18%), but had a minor aDOT/r of 2.3... but he is cheap enough to dart throw, and a much better option than pierce. 3 TEs played last week, and they totaled 10 targets, the leader, granson (61% snaps, 6 targets), may be out and some of that should funnel down, cox/olgetree are min priced and could be an option. Ogletree had 2 targets, but they were deep targets, I wouldn't go overboard in this game, but there is a lot of cheap value for atleast one-offs.
Houston backs may seem cheap enough, and maybe Pierce steps up in his roll, but they played 3 last week, and they ranged between 21 and 45% of snaps... pierce had just 14 opps (3 targets)... I can't find myself clicking him (or the others of course). At WR we have 2 options, woods/collins... both played over 70% of snaps, and had almost 45% of the targets... I actually prefer collins here, he's younger, had the extra target, but also a good aDOT/r of 9.8, both are cheap, and you can consider either, but I'll go with him. Pass at TE, schultz led with 4 targets but a negative 2 aDOT/r.....

4PMs/Main Slate

SFO/LAR


49ers have a good P/RB matchup.
Rams have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Purdy has a bad pressure rate situation.
49ers TTR is ranked 4th (great).
Rams TTR is ranked 21st (meh).
Pace of play is . O/URank is 6th.

- Injuries - SFO - On D, CB Womack (14%) is out.
- LAR - On D, S Yeast (100%) is Q. On O, WR Nacua is Q.

- No RB played more snaps than CMC, 85%, he had 27 total opps (5 targets), and the runs averaged at a 6.9 clip.... He's rightfully the most expensive player of the week, and I won't talk anyone off of it. Aiyuk/Deebo are still so cheap in relation to what they produce, both are viable, both had atleast a 25% target shgare, and aiyuk had a solid 13.6 aDOT/r, Deebo a 8.8 aDOT/r. Most people might see a decent road fave/divisional matchup and fade.... but I think you can make a case for a lower ownership game stack in this one, otherwise I'd one-off or avoid at best. I'm passing on Kittle for now, I like his repertoire with Purdy, but he had 6 targets and a terrible aDOT/r of 1.3... plus he is at a position that we either punt or pay big time for.
Williams played 65% to Akers 35% of snaps, like wtf McVay.... while they did had 37 carries combined, which is awesome, they only had 2 total targets... plus there is uncertainty with who it'll be this week.. I'm just passing altogether until we can be sure (if ever). At WR is where we can get fun. In a game where most of the 4th Q didn't matter in terms of passing, Stafford still had over 300 yards passing, where he supported 2 WRs having 100+ yard games. Nacua/Atwell combined for 62% of targets (Nacua 15, Atwell 8), Atwell had a great 14 aDOT/r to Nacuas 7.7... both played 78/79% of snaps. I think either can be played with confidence. Van Jefferson, while leading thie group with 93% of snaps was really a meh factor with just 5 targets and a 5 aDOT.r,,,, passing unless Nacua is out. I will add Higbee was safe PPR floor guy with a low aDOT last year, and while he just had 3 targets last week, he had a big aDOT/r of 12.3, if last year was really because of injuries and such, and this is the new norm, he could be a great play today and for the future (redraft leagues too)... but for now I'll pass.

NYG/ARI

Giants have a meh P/RB matchup.
Cards have a great P/RB matchup.
D. Jones has the worst pressure rate situation.
Giants TTR is ranked 9th.
Cards TTR is ranked 23rd (meh).
Pace of play is . O/URank is 9th (meh).

- Injuries - NYG - On O, WR Robinson is D, T Thomas is Q. On D, LB Ojulari (55%) is D.
- ARI - On D, LB Woods (55%) is out, DE Collier (52%) is out, and S Baker (100%) is Q.

- We can't really take anything from sundays nights loss from a stat perspective, except that the Giants starters may never get scripted out of games, so that's a plus I guess? Barkley is expensive, but is in a more favorable situation, and atleast had 16 opps (4 targets) last week, on just 60%~ of snaps, with a decent 4.3 Y/att... I get it, and maybe he goes lower owned based off week 1, but idk how much or if I go here. At WR, it's a crapshoot... I'll mostl ikely pass, but will say I am still a believer in Hodgins, at 5K it has me a bit worried, but he was the only WR last week to get a ball thrown to him past 5 yards, and was one of 3 that play 60+% of snaps, he could go virtually un owned as the WR1 on the team (if you believe he is). Waller could be fine, he is in the middle pricing that people usually fade, so he will come at low ownership, and also had a decent 7.3 aDOT/r with a 17% target share.. so I get it.
Conner just played 84% of snaps (2nd most), and he got 19 opps (5 targets), he is a super fine play as he is also cheap in a good matchup. No WR had more than 5 targets/17% share, Hollywood is a decent option at 4.9K but my gut doesn't feel good clicking his name... if you want to dart throw an almost min priced WR you could consider M. Wilson, he had 13% target share, 10aDOT/r, and played 90% of snaps. Also nobody is talking about Ertz, but he had 10 targets last week (33%), play 77% of snaps, and is cheap.... I hate that I like a lot of players here, and it doesn't feel good saying to take all these cardinals, so I'd reserve them for one-offs, but just giving low owned tournament options here.

NYJ/DAL

Jets have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Z. Wilson has a bad pressure rate situation.
Dak has a great pressure rate situation.
Jets TTR is ranked 24th (bad/worst).
Cowboys TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is . O/URank is 11th (bad).

- Injuries - NYJ - On O, Obviosuly Rodgers... but Greg the Leg is also out. Rest seems fine.
- DAL - On O, WR Cooks is D. T Smith is D, G Martin is Q. On D.

- Low total and injuries/strong defenses will keep people off of this, and for good reason. But if you want to get cute/leverage, maybe going Jets D over the 30%+ owned DAL D could be smart. I'd like to pair that D with one of the RBs, but it is tough. Hall looked great but he is limited in snaps (31%), and cook still only got to 50%, and was not so efficient.... combined they still got 28 opps (5 targets). I really want to play Hall but idk if I can. If you do think DAL wipes the floor with the Jets, you can consider Wilson/Lazard, Wilson seems a bit to expensive for me, but Lazard had a 11.5 aDOT/r with Zach, with 22% targets too.... just know Jets probably don't throw to much unless they are in a positive game script for it (Which the spread indicates).
Pollard played 64% of snaps, despite winning 40-0, and still had 17 Opps (3 targets).... I think he's a fine option, but he will be heavily owned as a pairing with DAL D... so you could take a stand and hope it fails, which I may. If I mentioned Ertz before, I should atleast mention Ferguson and his 1 aDOT/r, as he had a 28% target share week 1... I won't have him, but I get it. Lamb is another way to find leverage here, as nobody will be taking the passing attack in this setting, but it is a decent TTR for DAL, he is the WR1, and without Cooks, he may be even more peppered/volume based play, I know this goes in line with the leverage, but there really is just other options in that price range... so it is a tough click.

WAS/DEN

Commanders have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Broncos have a bad P/RB matchup.
Commanders TTR is ranked 22nd (meh).
Broncos TTR is ranked T-14th.
Pace of play is . O/URank is 12th (bad/last).

- Injuries - WAS - pretty clean.
- DEN - On O, TE Dulcich is O.

- I want to start with L. Thomas, he had 8 targets (28% target share), with a good TE aDOT/r of 7.8, and he is just 3.1K, I don't see anyone playing him, but if those numbers even drop a smidge, he is 2X'ing that salary still --- without a TD. If you think WAS can play with a lead (which is possible), it isn't a bad idea to go Robinson (with maybe the D as a pairing)... he had 61% of snaps but 21 opps (2 targets), he is a cheeky pivot off Kelley and friends. Based off Week 1 (and last year even), McLaurin is the deep threat, Dotson the pepper candidate, and Samuel the gadget guy... I think either can have spike weeks (specifically the first 2), not sure I go here, but I get it.
Mannn Williams/Perine played just 45% of snaps each... but they had 31 opps, 10 (TEN) targets combined.... if one is ever out, fire the other up... while they are cheap enough to hold a PPR floor, and succeed with TDs, I don't think I can stomach it. Jeudy is back, so knock all the other WR stats down a bit from last week... Jeudy was really building something with Wilson at the end of the year, and he was a full participant with no set backs, he'd be my only target here.
 
Last edited:
Sun Night/Showdown Slate

MIA/NEP


Dolphins have a meh P/RB matchup.
Patriots have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Tua has a good pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is

- Injuries - MIA - On D, LB Phillips (90%) is Q. On O, T Armstead is Q.
- NEP - On O, 3 Lineman are Q --- Bill Special ---, and WR Parker is Q.

- Mostert had a solid 73% snap count, but only 12 opps (2 targets), and his YPC wasn't the best... Achance should be active too, and idk what kind of role he will carve... I think I'm avoiding the backfield entirely for the showdown slate. It was a pretty neutral game script last week, and Hill/Waddle played just 66/64% of snaps, now they're obviously the ones to own, but I bring that up because you need salary relief in this slate and wanted to add the Cracraft/Berrios play 40/52% as well and each had 5 targets, they are fine dart throws, one comes at $800.... Back to the big dogs, while waddle was disappointing with just an 11% target share, he still managed a 4-78 statlinee, and will come in lower owned than hill... I'll try to find ways to jam both, but I get going over here than Hill... especially if you think bill can find a way to shut down the #1 threat (hill)---- Hill is a savage, capt. material, had 34% target share with a massive 14.8 aDOT/r.,,, that combo is lethal... and keep in mind he led the team in RZ targets too... so they want to get it to him whenever. Another man who I think is captain material, and will be great leverage because others won't... Smythe. He had a 16% target share (7), with a good TE aDOT/r of 7, and with Gesicki no longer there, he had a 100% snap count rate... Yes please.
Stevenson had a terrible week 1 when it comes to rushing, but he finsihed with 18 opps (6 targets), and 72% snap count, that is a good floor/ceiling combo type of player, and someone who can be considered in either spot. I'm writing this with the assumption Parker sits. I talked earlier how we need cheap options, Bourne did play 91% of snaps, with a solid 20% target share (11), but I won't be going overboard here (fine with playing in general though), Juju just had 54% of snaps, with 7 targets but a terrible 3 aDOT/r, give me Demario Douglas, his cheap salary, 13% target share, and 8 aDOT/r --- one last noteworth thing about the WRs, Boutte played 69% of snaps, but finsihed with a 0 statline (4 targets), you can of course pivot of douglas to him. Gesicki revenge game, but I'm not chasing it, he played under 50% of snaps, and finished with 3 targets.. Henry on the otherhand looks steal like, as he double his targets, doubled his snap count (79%), and had a nice aDOT/r of 9.8...

Smythe/Hill --- Waddle/Rivercraft
Henry/Stevenson/Douglas --- Bourne

These are mainly the guys I want.
 
Last edited:
I know some have asked, so figured I'd get the ball rolling.

For those that don't remember, I'll try to get down general matchup information from a dfs/prop perspective as best as I can, but please jump in whether it is to add input, correct a mistake of mine, or if something is unclear. I'm sure all 3 are going to happen.

When reading the summaries I'll typically use great, good, meh, bad, those 4 terms are sectioned between ranked 32nd-25th, 24th-17th, 16th-9th, 8th-1st. Ie. Ekeler has a great RB matchup, because the opposing defense is ranked somewhere between 25th-32nd in DVOA vs the run (something like that).

Edit: I do sort pressure rate/asr, as well as line play/aly in top 1-5,6-10, and 23-27, 28-32, so you may see me say Great/Good, and Meh/Bad, 11-22 are not stated. My ranges (which may adjust) for Great/Good/Ignore/Meh/Bad TT's and O/U's will be this.
>24.5 >50
>23 >46.5
20-23 43-46.
<20 <43
<17 <40

Now since it is just Week 2, some of the data listed will undoubtedly be skewed, but as the season progresses it'll obviously get more accurate.\\
From a quick DFS perspective/summary, here were the top 10 milly maker lineups for DK (I typically use them, and usually refer to PPR formats)

View attachment 77543

As you can see from this, so far this season;

- WRs were used 100% of the time in the FLEX position (this is probably a combination of pricing not being caught up yet, and WRs having the highest ceiling of the 3 (rb/wr/te)).
- RB+Def stack were used 30%
- Atleast a QB Team Stack was used 90% of the time (always with atleast a WR)
- QB Game stack was used 60% of the time
- QB + WR + RB Stack was used 20% of the time.
- DEF was practically punted 90%~ of the time (SFO really only expensive one)

I'll share with you guys my best tourney lineup --- I typically play the 3$ 20 entry max, this placed 214th out of 198,176 entries.

View attachment 77544

As you can see, I went with a slightly to big of a game stack with 3 MIA + 2 LAC, paired with 2 GBP (RB + DEF), and then 2 punt WRs in Mingo/Nacua. Shoulda/woulda/coulda but wishing I went down to musgrave/henry and maybe tried to get up to even a flowers over mingo... would have been much stronger, but moving on to Week 2.

I'll get the baseline formats of each game down shortly.
How did you know to take Nacua over Van Jefferson? That was basically the difference between me winning and losing a lot of entries. Nice job.

My best one was similar to yours:

1694632176894.png
 
Mon Night/2 Game Slate

NOS/CAR


Saints have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Panthers have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
No problems with pressure rates in either direction for both teams.
Pace of play is.

- Injuries - NOS - On D, Turner (11%) is out. On O, RB Miller is Q.
- CAR - On D, CB Horn (38%) is out. On O, WR Chark is Q.

- Williams played 75% of snaps and had 20 opps, (2 targets), that's obviously good to see, but a few things here.... he had a terrible 2.5 yards per attempt, and the 2 targets concern me. Plus if Miller plays, I have to think that cuts into every one of those numbers. Can he score TDs from the 1? Yes, but I'll let others chase. Carr was 2nd in yards per attempt and has the best passing options of the slate. Thomas/Olave played 80/78% of snaps, and combined for a 54% target share, 8 Thomas, 10 Olave. Thomas actually had a solid 11.6 aDOT/r to Olaves 6... I think both are viable, you do get a good discount on Thomas though. Kirkwood played 34% of snaps and saw no targets, Shaheed would be the other pivot option to consider, my gut says he is more popular than I'd like though, but won't leave him off. Don't play Taysom and his 14% snap count. Johnson was at 75% with a 15% target share (5) and can be considered.
Panthers played 4 TEs last week than ranged between 10 and 52%, obviously Hurst was the 52%, and he did finish with a 23% target share, but I think most people see last weeks stat line and look to click him at TE, especially because the 4 starting ones across the slate are all within $700, I think I'm going to full fade the ownership here. Marshall/Thielen/Mingo all played between 87-90% of snaps. Obviously we need to wait and see about Chark, I guess Marshall takes the biggest hit if he is in. In either scenario, I'm skipping on theilen and his age/ bad aDOT/r & target share from week 1. I'll have Mingo and Marshall or Mingo and Chark if he does or doesn't suit up. Sanders played 57% to Chubba's 36%, they combined for 35 opps (8 targets)... You can make a case for hubbard if you thnik the script falls that one... I may take a shot in 1 or 2 if mass entering, but otherwise I really want sanders. despite the 57% snap count, he had 24 of the 35 opps, and 6 targets... that is rock solid, plus the price gap really is not as wide as it needs to be.

CLV/PIT
Browns have a great P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Watson has a bad pressure rate situation.
Pickett has a meh pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is .

- Injuries - CLV - On O, WR Cooper is doubtful.
- PIT - On D, DT Heyward (21%) is out. On O, RB McFarland/WR Johnson are out.

- Chubb played just 49% of snaps to Fords 41%... just like hubbard, if mass entering maybe take a ford or two, otherwise pass. I said to my buddy, if the norm is for Chubb to have a floor of 4 targets a game, he can easily fight for RB1 status by years end, and I'm prioritizing him in all lineups. Cooper is most likely out and his 24% target share from week 1 needs to be dispersed. DPJ is probably my favorite of the bunch, and quietly played the most snaps last week. I'm fine if you want Moore, but I think most gravitate here, and if I'm not going DPJ, I may punt to a goodwin/bell in a lineup or two but not sold yet. Browns played 3 TEs last week, 31% was lowest snap count, Njoku could be played, but they all had terrible aDOTs and I think I'll let others go here if they don't go hurst, I'll pass for now.
Harris had 52% of snaps to Warrens 40%, but they kind of got scripted out of the game last week, so idk if I am fully sold on how much warren is going to take from harris just yet. Harris had just 6 carries, and 2 targets, but he was pretty efficient with it, I think I'll be over exposed against the field. Diontae played just 42% of snaps with the injury but had 6 targets, the other 3 WRs had 6/7/8 themselves (Austin/Pickens/Robinson, respectively).... A-Rob not only had the best target share, but the best aDOT/r too, and he played 89% of snaps, is he back?!? I think I'd rather be over exposed to him then pickens... and leave the dart throws/mass entries for Austin. Freiermuth played just 51% of snaps, but it wasn't because of the backup playing much. He only had 4 targets but 3 were in the redzone, and with no Diontae, more may funnell to him, He and Juwan will probably be my main selections from this slate. Not saying I'll go overboard in this idea, but if 2 TE's succeed tonight, and you go TE for Flex, it is a big way to differentiate your lineup from others.
 
Last edited:
In relation to DK pricing, 1700 in savings and a tourney (not cash) pivot to a lower owned option, just went for it. Not saying I did not have Van in another though, 20 entries gives you some luxury.

I know Mostert was sooo cheap, but I was under owned there, figured everyone would pounce and 43% tells you just that. Not sure an 8 player game stack is the way but I'm sure that cashed for you either way so that's a plus! I also am less familiar with FD Winners. Nice job on Parham

How did you know to take Nacua over Van Jefferson? That was basically the difference between me winning and losing a lot of entries. Nice job.

My best one was similar to yours:

View attachment 77553
 
In relation to DK pricing, 1700 in savings and a tourney (not cash) pivot to a lower owned option, just went for it. Not saying I did not have Van in another though, 20 entries gives you some luxury.

I know Mostert was sooo cheap, but I was under owned there, figured everyone would pounce and 43% tells you just that. Not sure an 8 player game stack is the way but I'm sure that cashed for you either way so that's a plus! I also am less familiar with FD Winners. Nice job on Parham
When I saw the match-up on paper, I thought the total should've been 100 lol. So I went nuts and just tried to grab everyone.
 
Jacobs rushing o68.5-113

Cook over 50.5-117

Kincaid rec yds o29.5-117

3 props I like in the Raiders/Bills game.

Jacobs is a beast and I think that's the way teams will go at Buffalo until they can stop it. Jets did a good job of keeping the Bills in a D they don't like to play. Jacobs will get the touches so to me the only problem is the blowout potential.

Cook- number is low to me, might only get another 16 carries but good chance he'll avg over 4.5 ypc. Might hold off to see his rush & rec.

Bills ran 12 personnel 83% of plays most in NFL. They have made it clear that's what they want to do and you better believe Allen is getting check- downs drilled into his head. I think Knox, Kincaid, Cook all are solid wagers to go over yardage totals this week.
 
Jacobs rushing o68.5-113

Cook over 50.5-117

Kincaid rec yds o29.5-117

3 props I like in the Raiders/Bills game.

Jacobs is a beast and I think that's the way teams will go at Buffalo until they can stop it. Jets did a good job of keeping the Bills in a D they don't like to play. Jacobs will get the touches so to me the only problem is the blowout potential.

Cook- number is low to me, might only get another 16 carries but good chance he'll avg over 4.5 ypc. Might hold off to see his rush & rec.

Bills ran 12 personnel 83% of plays most in NFL. They have made it clear that's what they want to do and you better believe Allen is getting check- downs drilled into his head. I think Knox, Kincaid, Cook all are solid wagers to go over yardage totals this week.
Great point on the check downs...

Had Kincaid catches 2.5 and yards 27.5 on MNF (split).

He's going to be a very nice weapon.

Yes on Cook. This is the game, as they will be much more careful and slowly get J.A. back to normal hopefully.
 
1PMs/Main Slate

GBP/ATL


Packers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Falcons have a meh P/RB matchup.
Love has a good pressure rate (lower end) situation.
Packers TTR is ranked T-12th
Falcons TTR is ranked T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is . O/URank is 8th (meh).

- Injuries - GBP - On D, LB Walker (66%)/Gary (16%) are Q. On O, WRs Doubs/Watson are Q, RB Jones is Q.
- ATL - On D, LB Andersen (99%) is out, and

- From a general game perspective, I don't have a ton of interest in over exposure, or stacking this game too much. But individually, pieces could be had via salaries/injuries

Packers have had 2 stable backs for what feels like a lifetime, if Jones suits up, I'll probably pass on both, but keep in mind, they both played about 48/47% of snaps and had a total of 29 opportunities.... if Jones misses here, Dillon should easily be in line for 24+ total touches... even in a game they led they had 7 targets (3 for dillon), that's a good floor/ceiling combo for a 5.9K priced player. At WR, the packers had 5 play between 35 and 62% of snaps, and we don't know the health of Watson/Doubs yet.... also the one who had 62% was Dontayvion Wicks.... hard pass here, as I think it is a crapshoot, but if Watson suits up with no limitations, I can be convinced as a one-off, if he is out, I'd rather go with Reed, as he seems to be the deep threat, and shared for the team lead at WR for targets (5), but had a massive 15 aDOT/r, no other WR was over 6.5..... If you are streaming TEs weekly in FF, I'd consider picking up Musgrave (or Smythe --- more later), Musgrave had just 4 targets (one should have been a TD he twisted himself up on), but he had a solid aDOT/r of 13.7, which is lovely for a TE, and he is still so cheap.
How can we trust WR/TE's on ATL, idk if I can, I'd like to see them play from behind first before predicting it... because even last year they ran way to much when trailing. They are 4th in rush% to start the year, but the 3 above them? Browns, 2nd quarter positive game script for running, ravens 3rd quarter positive game script, cowboys 4th quarter positive game script, Falcons? Led by more than 7 with 4 minutes left in the 4th. They also had the fewest total plays of the 4 by a mile (72/58/55/48 respectively).... the WR/TEs had 8 targets on 22 pass plays, the 2 RBs had 9..... London/Pitts are cheap, but they may have to get cheaper if this continues.
Now, in saying all that, it seems the RBs look to be script proof.... now Bijan still comes at a price, and he had 63% of snaps, with 16 opportunities (6 targets), but allgeiers price went up just $100, and he had 18 total opps. (3 targets), both had atleast 5 yards/attempt, despite Carolina knowing what's coming.... I think Allgeier is extremely viable.

LVR/BUF

Raiders have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Garop has a good pressure rate situation.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation.
Raiders TTR is ranked T-19th (meh).
Bills TTR is ranked 1st (great).
Pace of play is . O/URank is T-3rd.

- Injuries - LVR - On O, WR Meyers is D, and WR Carter is Q.
- BUF - pretty clean since start of year.

- A quiet 22 opportunities (3 targets) and 80% snap count (T-3rd highest week 1 among RBs) for Mr. Jacobs. His price actually fell considerably and has a good matchup on paper minus a possible game script blowout, but even in a 1 to 2 TD game, he'll be there, and only means more opp for targets. He's on my radar/list. From a strictly volume based perspective I think Adams is a fine tournament leverage/pivot, as nobody will be playing him at that price range (nor wilson for that matter), as they'd rather have brown/lamb/chase/ridley/allen/etc, not sure if I go here, but he is worth a lineup or 2 if mass entering, as we know he can break a slate. I will add, he played 90% of snaps, had a 35% target share, with an aDOT/r of 10.5... and the guy who had a 38.5% target share (meyers) shouldn't be playing.
Despite mostly dink and dunks, the raiders just let russ have a solid 80%~ completion %, and outside of sutton, is was really a bunch of meh players out there. I think Allen is going to look to bounce bank, and has a great opp to do so. Just like the last 2 years, Gab Davis continues to play slightly more than Diggs, and is the bigger aDOT/r player, I'm not saying not to play Diggs, he had 13 targets (33% target share), but Davis comes $2,100 cheaper, and has the ability to hit homeruns, which is great for tourneys. Looks like Harty was the WR3 week 1, but he played just 22% of snaps, Knox/Kincaid played 84/80% respectively, I'm not going to play a guessing game each week with them, they both had 4 targets (10% target share), but I will say, Knox probably comes lower owned, he is a touch cheaper, and had a better aDOT/r than kincaid... if game or team stacking, and want to be a bit different, I guess I'd go him. They practically played in a neutral script last week and Cook had a solid 18 opps (6 targets), on just 59% of snaps. He is cheap enough to consider as a pivot off the popular Allen stacks for a team that has the highest TTR. Definitely viable.


BAL/CIN

Ravens have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bengals have a bad P/RB matchup.
Lamar has a meh pressure rate situation.
Ravens TTR is ranked 11th.
Bengals TTR is ranked 5th (great).
Pace of play is . O/URank is T-3rd.

- Injuries - BAL - On D, S Williams (31%) is out. On O, T Stanley, and C Linderbaum are out, both listed as 1's on depth chart, don't have snap numbers right now, but that's big. RB Dobbins is out, and TE Andrews is Q.
- CIN - On O, RB Evans is Q.

- So I know Dobbins is now out, and the BAL RBs come cheap, and they did just have 3 TDs in game 1, but you don't know which will get it if they do, plus lamar is still a vulture of sorts, oh and this OLine is now missing 2 pieces from Week 1. I actually really prefer Lamar here, I'm hoping those issues cause for more time/plays with the ball in his hands, it'll force him to scramble as well, which I like. It looks like BAL finally has found stable WRs as Flowers/OBJ played 84/92% of snaps!, sorry bateman/duvernay, but I won't be having you. Flowers had a solid 47.6% target share (10 targets), but a bad aDOT/r of 3. OBJ had just 3 targets, but he was the deep threat, with a sexier 18 aDOT/r. If Andrews suits up, I think I'll have some shares of him, with OBJ, if he doesn't I'll be heavier on Flowers, but I think everyone will go towards flowers, and OBJ makes a great toruney pivot (I will still have a bit of flowers).
Mixon played 62% of snaps, while I'd like to see that higher, he still had 18 opps (5 targets), I think he is always a fine play, safe floor, potential ceiling combo. I wouldn't cross him off, but idk if I go there. I'm passing on Irv. Smith, he played just 54% of snaps, low target share, and low aDOT/r. As far as the trio, they all played a ton last week, now that may be because they were playing from behind throughout, but boyd was the lowest at 84% of snaps... that kind of makes them all viable/atleast dart consideration. Higgins/Chase combined for over 54% of the targets though, and are obviously the 2 to own for bring backs, where boyd should be reserved for mass entering and wanting a pivot/leverage.

SEA/DET

Seahawks have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Lions have a great P/RB matchup.
Goff has the best pressure rate situation.
Geno has a meh pressure rate situation.
Seahawks TTR is ranked T-14th.
Lions TTR is ranked 3rd (great).
Pace of play is . O/U Rank is 2nd (good).

- Injuries - SEA - On O, T Cross is O. On D, LB Bush (26%) is Q.
- DET - On O, T Decker is D. On D, DE Paschal (26%), is Q.

- Walker was eerily similar to mixon, as I'd like to see a little bit more than 63% of snaps, but he still had 17 opps (5 targets), and he comes at a little bit of a cheaper price. This game has the possibility to be a shootout, and he would be a good pivot from the passing options on both sides. Overall, I probably won't be playing him, at least to much, but he is worth of consideration, and we have seen him break the slate/Carroll ride him like a bronco. One thing to keep in mind for upside compared to Week 1, the Seahawks ran the least amount of plays, and a regression to the mean should mean a boost for all players opportunities. Njigba's priced cheap enough to consider, he did play 59% of snaps and had a 20% target share (5 targets) but he also had the worst aDOT/r of -0.3, yes negative. Lockett played 88% of snaps, with just 4 targets and a meh aDOT/r, if you want to make an arguement for tourneys, sure, but give me the guy who also had a 20% target share, is not that much more expensive, and a great aDOT/r of 12 (Metcalf), over the rest. Pass at TE, like last year they don't just use one, and somehow never had more than a 43% snap share, no ty.
I know everyone is lining up to play Gibbs, and he obviously should see more opps/snaps (he had 9 opps 2 targets on 29% of snaps), but Montgomery played 79% of snaps and had 21 carries.... Lions are decent faves, and they were play in a neutral script, if playing with a lead., what's it going to be 65-35? at worst? for Montgomery. I obviously don't like the 0 targets of montgomery, but I'd rather have him over Gibbs if I go this route...if I do, not sure on my exposure just yet. What I do want is a cheap goff and these WRs. St. Brown might be >20% owned, but can you blame anyone? He played 94% of snaps good for T-6th week one, and had a 28% target share, with an ok 8.5 aDOT/r. What people should also be considering is Josh Reynolds, and his 70% snap rate, 22% target share, 13 aDOT/r, and at 3.7K... min price for WRs are 3K, that's blasphemy... he makes for a good game/team stacking partner, or a pivot off st.brown. Pass on Jones, least targetted, lowest snap count, and shortest aDOT/r.. reynolds cost 100 more.. come on. LaPorta actually played 85% of snaps, which you love to see for a cheap/dart throw TE, don't mind him in some roster constructions over reynolds.

LAC/TEN

Chargers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Titans have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Tanny has a great pressure rate situation
Herbert has a meh pressure rate situation
Chargers TTR is ranked 6th (good).
Titans TTR is ranked T-12th.
Pace of play is . O/URank is 5th.

- Injuries - LAC - On D, LB Kendricks (100%), LB Bosa are Q. On O, RB Ekeler is Q.
- TEN - On D, CB Fulton (32%), S Hooker (83%) are out. On O, WR Hopkins is Q.

- Ekeler played just 51% of snaps, yet managed 21 opps (5 targets), he was obviously super efficient, but his price went up, and the matchup is a little tougher... I can't stomach clicking his name this week with those factors. LAC has a much better matchup through the air, and it starts with Allen. He played 91% of snaps, and saw a massive 29% target share (9 targets), nobody else was over 16% (5 targets), while also having an ok aDOT/r of 8.3. I think he is a solid play, and will look to play him when I can. M. Williams is a fine pivot, he practically matched the aDOT/r of allen, but had just 5 targets, and 77% snap count... he is cheap enough to consider though. Do not play Quentin Johnston until he proves it, or injuries to the big guys.... he played just 27% of snaps and is more expensive than Palmer who saw 64%,. if you want to dart here, go with Palmer. Pass at TE, both played, both saw 3 targets, we have better situations elsewhere.
I want to say you can never cross Henry off your list, he has slate breaking upside, and is one of a couple of backs than can easily go 200+ 2+, having said that, he somehow played just 48% of snaps last week? Did I miss an injury or something?, Spears played more at 54%.... he still managed 18 opps (3 targets), but that really concerns me, and gives me pause.... idk if I'll have exposure there. I will say, spears seems like an important handcuff. If Hopkins plays, I'm playing him.... everyone will avoid him due to injury concern/reaggravation, but that low ownership is leverage, there is a definite script where they play from behind, he had a MASSIVE 39% target share week 1 (13 targets), with the best aDOT/r of all players on his team (8.6), this was on just 78% of snaps. Burks/Ikhgine had 90/81%, but it was Ikhine who led in targets 7 to 3.... he is cheaper than burks, and probably goes lower owned, he may be the better tournament play imo. If Hopkins is out, I'll probably turn to Chig, last year he was an aDOT guy if I remember correctly, and play 83% of snaps last week, he is a decent dart throw/cheap punt TE option if so.


CHI/TBB

Bears have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Buccaneers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation.
Bears TTR is ranked T-19th (meh).
Bucs TTR is ranked 10th,
Pace of play is . O/URank is 7th (meh).

- Injuries - CHI - On D, CBs Gordon (45%)/Blackwell (17%) are out.
- TBB - On D, CB Davis (100%) is out.

- I think I might lover over 41 points. Both QBs have top half of the league matchups, and baker should finally see time in the pocket. CHI/GBP last week at 56 points, I think this game might be one I pick one-offs from, as well as personally game stack. Fields finished with a mediocre 16~ DK points, but he had just 1 passing TD, and 2 turnovers... his rushing upside gives him such a big floor/ceiling combo, I don't want to miss it. Not a single RB played 40% of snaps last week... I know they played in a negative game script, but I'm passing until that's figured out, plus Fields can easily vulture some of their value too. The script may also have led to more 3 WR sets, but we need to see a bit more of how it will play out in coming weeks. They are all pretty cheap, and mixing and matchup, or going naked fields are all viable. I probably won't go for claypool... but Mooney saw 84% of snaps, led the team in target share (19.4%), 7 targets, and had the best aDOT/r of 11.8, and he is cheaper than Moore. I'll still have some of both though. I'd like Kmet to be cheaper to really consider... I may still take him, but his aDOT/r of 3 stinks, but he did have 7 targets 2 of which were RZ targets... and he had a couple multiple TD games in last years disappointing season, so I get it he did play 97% of snaps, T-2nd among TE's.
I know R. White was not that efficient, but he did have a 79% snap count, 19 opps (2 targets), you don't often get that volume at 5.5K, so I do think he's viable, not sure I want to go overboard though. What I do like here is the concentration that looks to be continuing with Baker... Evans had a 31% target share, with a decent aDOT/r of 9, godwin was a bit less at 19%, and 7.8, both are virtually priced the same... the projected great pressure rate situation makes me like evans more than godwin, but based off last week most probably agree... I wouldn't mind either, even alternating with a mini game stack with fields. Ironically, like Kmet, Otton actually had a 97% snap count, T-2nd among TE's.... unfortunatelym it only translated to 3 targets... I think he will have some nice floor weeks, and obviously the snaps are nice to see, but I may pass for now, especially because I don't want every piece of this offense.


KCC/JAC

Chiefs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Jags have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation.
Chiefs TTR is ranked 2nd (great).
Jags TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is . O/URank is 1st (great).

- Injuries - -
- -

-

IND/HOU

Colts have a good P/RB matchup.
Texans have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Richardson has a bad pressure rate situation.
Colts TTR is ranked 16th.
Texans TTR is T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is . O/URank is 10th (bad).

- Injuries - -
- -

-

4PMs/Main Slate

SFO/LAR


49ers have a good P/RB matchup.
Rams have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Purdy has a bad pressure rate situation.
49ers TTR is ranked 4th (great).
Rams TTR is ranked 21st (meh).
Pace of play is . O/URank is 6th.

- Injuries - -
- -

-

NYG/ARI

Giants have a meh P/RB matchup.
Cards have a great P/RB matchup.
D. Jones has the worst pressure rate situation.
Giants TTR is ranked 9th.
Cards TTR is ranked 23rd (meh).
Pace of play is . O/URank is 9th (meh).

- Injuries - -
- -

-

NYJ/DAL

Jets have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Z. Wilson has a bad pressure rate situation.
Dak has a great pressure rate situation.
Jets TTR is ranked 24th (bad/worst).
Cowboys TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is . O/URank is 11th (bad).

- Injuries - -
- -

-

WAS/DEN

Commanders have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Broncos have a bad P/RB matchup.
Commanders TTR is ranked 22nd (meh).
Broncos TTR is ranked T-14th.
Pace of play is . O/URank is 12th (bad/last).

- Injuries - -
- -

-

6 out of 12 updated to the best of my knowledge.
 
Late start w this nfl stuff, I was busy rolling around in my gators money all night!! Lol

Glad to see you back doing this brother.

I’ll try reading your stuff when I get home didn’t even realize you had this thread up!

So far I’ve played:

Bijan ov 18.5 rec... (seems crazy low considering how they used him week 1)

Gibbs ov 26.5 rec.. gonna just play him til it cashes I guess, only 2 targets week 1 for 18 yards, feel like he should get the 5 or so a game swift did.

Bounce back qb week?

Burrow ov 266.5 ov 1.5 tds
Allen over yards and 1.5 tds

Oh and I love this one:

Kirk ov 43.5 rec
 
1 PMs

Z. Jones Rec Yds O46.5 -115 2.3-2
J. Reynolds Rec Yds O38.5 -115 2.3-2
N. Collins Rec Yds O48.5 -115 2.3-2

J. Jacobs Rush&Rec O92.5 -115 1.15-1
K. Allen Receptions O6.5 -115 1.15-1
T. Allgeier O51.5 Rush Yds -115 1.15-1
J, Fields Rush Yds O59.5 -115 1.15-1


Tried to take one from every game, avoided just CIN/BAL, do like andrews over, or mixon rush&rec, but avoiding for now. Also like some extras like Metcalf over/Musgrave over/Evans over.
 
M. Stafford Pass Yards O224.5 -125 5-4

M. Wilson Rec Yds O24.5 -135 2.7-2

J. Jeudy Rec Yds O48.5 -110 1.1-1
B. Hall Rush Yds O38.5 -130 1.3-1


Like Tutu/Nacua over too, this number is insanely low, he had one of the highest yards per pass attempt last week, and are TD+ dogs...
 
1 PMs

Z. Jones Rec Yds O46.5 -115 2.3-2
J. Reynolds Rec Yds O38.5 -115 2.3-2
N. Collins Rec Yds O48.5 -115 2.3-2

J. Jacobs Rush&Rec O92.5 -115 1.15-1
K. Allen Receptions O6.5 -115 1.15-1
T. Allgeier O51.5 Rush Yds -115 1.15-1
J, Fields Rush Yds O59.5 -115 1.15-1


Tried to take one from every game, avoided just CIN/BAL, do like andrews over, or mixon rush&rec, but avoiding for now. Also like some extras like Metcalf over/Musgrave over/Evans over.

I already regret burrow play. I was just winging it this morning. I def expect him to play much better but not sure that leads to 270+ Yards? After more thought I kinda doubt game script goes in way that makes this likely! I’m a idiot, lol. I seriously just was thinking much better game, Stroud threw for 220s, don’t think the run game be real effective. He has lit them up before but in 3 games last year he never hit this. I’d take yarfs back if I could! Lol. I just gotta hope ravens new offense gives cincy problems and being week 2 we get a much looser game than we would see between these 2 late in year with more on the line.

I really liked zay flowers last week and he crushed his number, his yards only a few higher than last week but wasn’t sure if he gets a little more attention now that there tape on him or how Andrews playing would effect his role? Gun to head id say flowers goes well over 44 yards again but didn’t play him.

Pretty happy with rest my card, I really think Kirk will get way more involved today, think he has enough stature on this team a week after Ridley and Jones got most the looks they will run some stuff for Kirk and he capable of cashing this number on one play! Kc will undoubtedly have to focus some attention over to Ridley and Kirk lit them up last year.

Gl today
 
Sun Night/Showdown Slate

MIA/NEP


Dolphins have a meh P/RB matchup.
Patriots have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Tua has a good pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is

- Injuries - MIA - On D, LB Phillips (90%) is Q. On O, T Armstead is Q.
- NEP - On O, 3 Lineman are Q --- Bill Special ---, and WR Parker is Q.

- Mostert had a solid 73% snap count, but only 12 opps (2 targets), and his YPC wasn't the best... Achance should be active too, and idk what kind of role he will carve... I think I'm avoiding the backfield entirely for the showdown slate. It was a pretty neutral game script last week, and Hill/Waddle played just 66/64% of snaps, now they're obviously the ones to own, but I bring that up because you need salary relief in this slate and wanted to add the Cracraft/Berrios play 40/52% as well and each had 5 targets, they are fine dart throws, one comes at $800.... Back to the big dogs, while waddle was disappointing with just an 11% target share, he still managed a 4-78 statlinee, and will come in lower owned than hill... I'll try to find ways to jam both, but I get going over here than Hill... especially if you think bill can find a way to shut down the #1 threat (hill)---- Hill is a savage, capt. material, had 34% target share with a massive 14.8 aDOT/r.,,, that combo is lethal... and keep in mind he led the team in RZ targets too... so they want to get it to him whenever. Another man who I think is captain material, and will be great leverage because others won't... Smythe. He had a 16% target share (7), with a good TE aDOT/r of 7, and with Gesicki no longer there, he had a 100% snap count rate... Yes please.
Stevenson had a terrible week 1 when it comes to rushing, but he finsihed with 18 opps (6 targets), and 72% snap count, that is a good floor/ceiling combo type of player, and someone who can be considered in either spot. I'm writing this with the assumption Parker sits. I talked earlier how we need cheap options, Bourne did play 91% of snaps, with a solid 20% target share (11), but I won't be going overboard here (fine with playing in general though), Juju just had 54% of snaps, with 7 targets but a terrible 3 aDOT/r, give me Demario Douglas, his cheap salary, 13% target share, and 8 aDOT/r --- one last noteworth thing about the WRs, Boutte played 69% of snaps, but finsihed with a 0 statline (4 targets), you can of course pivot of douglas to him. Gesicki revenge game, but I'm not chasing it, he played under 50% of snaps, and finished with 3 targets.. Henry on the otherhand looks steal like, as he double his targets, doubled his snap count (79%), and had a nice aDOT/r of 9.8...

Smythe/Hill --- Waddle/Rivercraft
Henry/Stevenson/Douglas --- Bourne

These are mainly the guys I want.

Wrote up the MIA/NEP thoughts, went quick, and just hit points...

D. Smythe Rec Yds O25.5 -110 3.3-3
 
Freaking burrow yards away from the sweep and I freaking knew that was the worst one after I bet it (as I mentioned). I almost got it anyways if Zach Taylor wasn’t such a clown, no clue why he went out his way to help ravens kill clock down 2 scores?? Or even if bungals don’t get that punt return I think it likely burrow would have cashed as I imagine they would have started running their only good offense sooner if they were down more
 
Mon Night/2 Game Slate

NOS/CAR


Saints have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Panthers have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
No problems with pressure rates in either direction for both teams.
Pace of play is.

- Injuries - NOS - On D, Turner (11%) is out. On O, RB Miller is Q.
- CAR - On D, CB Horn (38%) is out. On O, WR Chark is Q.

- Williams played 75% of snaps and had 20 opps, (2 targets), that's obviously good to see, but a few things here.... he had a terrible 2.5 yards per attempt, and the 2 targets concern me. Plus if Miller plays, I have to think that cuts into every one of those numbers. Can he score TDs from the 1? Yes, but I'll let others chase. Carr was 2nd in yards per attempt and has the best passing options of the slate. Thomas/Olave played 80/78% of snaps, and combined for a 54% target share, 8 Thomas, 10 Olave. Thomas actually had a solid 11.6 aDOT/r to Olaves 6... I think both are viable, you do get a good discount on Thomas though. Kirkwood played 34% of snaps and saw no targets, Shaheed would be the other pivot option to consider, my gut says he is more popular than I'd like though, but won't leave him off. Don't play Taysom and his 14% snap count. Johnson was at 75% with a 15% target share (5) and can be considered.
Panthers played 4 TEs last week than ranged between 10 and 52%, obviously Hurst was the 52%, and he did finish with a 23% target share, but I think most people see last weeks stat line and look to click him at TE, especially because the 4 starting ones across the slate are all within $700, I think I'm going to full fade the ownership here. Marshall/Thielen/Mingo all played between 87-90% of snaps. Obviously we need to wait and see about Chark, I guess Marshall takes the biggest hit if he is in. In either scenario, I'm skipping on theilen and his age/ bad aDOT/r & target share from week 1. I'll have Mingo and Marshall or Mingo and Chark if he does or doesn't suit up. Sanders played 57% to Chubba's 36%, they combined for 35 opps (8 targets)... You can make a case for hubbard if you thnik the script falls that one... I may take a shot in 1 or 2 if mass entering, but otherwise I really want sanders. despite the 57% snap count, he had 24 of the 35 opps, and 6 targets... that is rock solid, plus the price gap really is not as wide as it needs to be.

CLV/PIT
Browns have a great P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Watson has a bad pressure rate situation.
Pickett has a meh pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is .

- Injuries - CLV - On O, WR Cooper is doubtful.
- PIT - On D, DT Heyward (21%) is out. On O, RB McFarland/WR Johnson are out.

- Chubb played just 49% of snaps to Fords 41%... just like hubbard, if mass entering maybe take a ford or two, otherwise pass. I said to my buddy, if the norm is for Chubb to have a floor of 4 targets a game, he can easily fight for RB1 status by years end, and I'm prioritizing him in all lineups. Cooper is most likely out and his 24% target share from week 1 needs to be dispersed. DPJ is probably my favorite of the bunch, and quietly played the most snaps last week. I'm fine if you want Moore, but I think most gravitate here, and if I'm not going DPJ, I may punt to a goodwin/bell in a lineup or two but not sold yet. Browns played 3 TEs last week, 31% was lowest snap count, Njoku could be played, but they all had terrible aDOTs and I think I'll let others go here if they don't go hurst, I'll pass for now.
Harris had 52% of snaps to Warrens 40%, but they kind of got scripted out of the game last week, so idk if I am fully sold on how much warren is going to take from harris just yet. Harris had just 6 carries, and 2 targets, but he was pretty efficient with it, I think I'll be over exposed against the field. Diontae played just 42% of snaps with the injury but had 6 targets, the other 3 WRs had 6/7/8 themselves (Austin/Pickens/Robinson, respectively).... A-Rob not only had the best target share, but the best aDOT/r too, and he played 89% of snaps, is he back?!? I think I'd rather be over exposed to him then pickens... and leave the dart throws/mass entries for Austin. Freiermuth played just 51% of snaps, but it wasn't because of the backup playing much. He only had 4 targets but 3 were in the redzone, and with no Diontae, more may funnell to him, He and Juwan will probably be my main selections from this slate. Not saying I'll go overboard in this idea, but if 2 TE's succeed tonight, and you go TE for Flex, it is a big way to differentiate your lineup from others.

Updated.
 
J. Mingo Rec Yds O26.5 -115 2.3-2
A. Robinson Rec Yds O32.5 -110 2.2-2
D. Peoples-Jones Rec Yds O34.5 -115 2.3-2

D. Carr Passing Yards O234.5 -115 1.15-1
 
Back
Top