DFS/Props Week 18 Discussion

[ScopeY]

"For those that don't remember, I'll try to get down general matchup information from a dfs/prop perspective as best as I can, but please jump in whether it is to add input, correct a mistake of mine, or if something is unclear. I'm sure all 3 are going to happen.

When reading the summaries I'll typically use great, good, meh, bad, those 4 terms are sectioned between ranked 32nd-25th, 24th-17th, 16th-9th, 8th-1st. Ie. Ekeler has a great RB matchup, because the opposing defense is ranked somewhere between 25th-32nd in DVOA vs the run (something like that).

Edit: I do sort pressure rate/asr, as well as line play/aly in top 1-5,6-10, and 23-27, 28-32, so you may see me say Great/Good, and Meh/Bad, 11-22 are not stated. My ranges (which may adjust) for Great/Good/Ignore/Meh/Bad TT's and O/U's will be this.
>24.5 >50
>23 >46.5
20-23 43-46.
<20 <43
<17 <40"



As you can see from this, week 17/season numbers;

- WRs were used 60% of the time in the FLEX position, 40% RB, 0% TE --- season total is now 63%/25%/12%, WR/RB/TE.
- RB + Def stack were 10% of the time. --- season total is now 17% of the time.
- At least a QB Team Stack was used 100% of the time --- season total is now 96% of the time.
- QB Game stack was used 60% of the time. --- season total is now 38% of the time.
- QB + WR + RB Stack was used 10% of the time. --- season total is now 6% of the time.
- DEF was paid up for 0 times, mid 100%, punted 0%. --- season total is now 21%/45%/34%, high/mid/low pricing on the season.

The cut/cash line for this weeks tourney was 129.20, the lowest of the year. --- (Wk2 138.30, Wk3 165.18, Wk4 145.84, Wk5 155.38, Wk6 143, Wk7 133.8, Wk8 148.44, Wk9 138.02, Wk10 153.96, Wk11 145.72, Wk12 148.76, Wk13 142.2, Wk14 146.52, Wk15 148.08, Wk16 146.44.

My best was 155.16, as you can see I went 3 TBB + 1 NOS, 1 LAR + 1 NYG, 1 ATL + 1 CHI.....



I actually was all over this leaderboard of players minus lamar... really liked Taylor/Fields, Moore/Adams/Slayton/Kyren --- I actually played me some J. Hill too which was really nice, but a couple guys I paid up for failed (looking at you Olave/Kittle.....Collins felt like a let down too, but the game got out of hand, otherwise he probably gets over 150...) Oh well, 1 full slate left that includes a lot of uncertainties... so please feel free to chime in or mentioned details about resting/sitting players that I obviously could miss.

 

[Lexington 125]

Thanks for all the work you put in @ScopeY !

Best thread weekly

One jumped off the page to me.

I like Shultz to go off vs the Colts. Yds over whatever it is.

TD is set at +175

Brown will miss leaving Nico & robert Woods- Shultz has incentives on the line but is also in a great situation to get a bunch of targets. hell maybe even catches over & some adjusted lines for me.

 

[peelpub94]

Thanks for all the work you put in @ScopeY !

Best thread weekly

One jumped off the page to me.

I like Shultz to go off vs the Colts. Yds over whatever it is.

TD is set at +175

Brown will miss leaving Nico & robert Woods- Shultz has incentives on the line but is also in a great situation to get a bunch of targets. hell maybe even catches over & some adjusted lines for me.

Feels right to me.

 

[ScopeY]

Thanks Lex...

Busier at work/didn't have a WFH day this week, so way behind on this... at a minimum I'll get the templates down, the saturday games, and sunday nighbt games... but with sunday main slate being a big more complex, I'll try my best.

Lets get it

 

[ScopeY]

Saturday 2 Game Slate

PIT/BAL

Steelers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Ravens have a bad P/RB matchup.
Rudolph has a bad pass potential.
BAL RB has a good run potential.
Steelers TTR is 3rd (meh)
Ravens TTR is 4th (bad).
Pace of play is 14th (for the week), and O/U Rank is the worst of the 2 (by almost 2 TDs...)

- Injuries - PIT -
- BAL -

-

HOU/IND

Texans have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Colts have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Minshew has a meh pressure rate situation. Taylor has a bad run potential.
Texans TTR is 1st (good).
Colt TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 1st (for the week). and O/U Rank is the best of the 2 (by almost 2 TDs...)

- Injuries - HOU -
- IND -

-

 

[ScopeY]

Sun Night/Showdown Slate

BUF/MIA

Bills have a good P/RB matchup.
Dolphins have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Allen has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. J. Cook has a great run potential.
Tua has a good pass potential.
Pace of play is T-13th overall.

- Injuries - BUF - On D, DT Phillips (44%) is out for 2nd week.
- MIA - On D, S Holland (94%) is Q to return from a 4 week hiatus, LB Baker (87%) is also Q to return from a 3 week hiatus. LB Chubb (81%)/CB Howard(94%) are out. On O, RB/WR Mostert/Waddle are Q but not expected to play.

Cook 2 weeks ago saw a season high 75% of snaps, I don't think Murray/Fournette are really going to eat into him much on other closer scripts either, and in blowouts/2+ possession leads (last week) he still had 19 opps..... I think he has a very good floor, and maybe not a ceiling as the top dogs, but it's still a healthy combination. In the last 4 weeks, Diggs has had 6, 9 , 8, and 7 PPR points.... but he's had a 31.5% target share, and a 10.94 aDOT.... that is a true regression candidate waiting to explode, and if people are going to be off of him because of his perceived poor performance, I am going to jump right on in... I don't know how much Gab I'll have, but he can defnitely be considered too... his target share isn't great at 12.25%, but his aDOT at 21.08 is massive/tourney HR hitter, but he isn't cheap, and we know he can dud you. I don't hate kincaid either.. he is another one I can see others being scared of because of the return of Knox, but while his playing time is down, he still has a really respectably 19.5% target share/9.32 aDOT, which isn't elite tier, but that is a step below, and we are talking about a game with only 2 teams for pools of players. Nobody else really interests me..... Diggs>Cook>>>Kincaid>>>Davis.

We just saw Achane in his first game without Mostert, and while he still split duties with Wilson (in terms of snap count), he did get the goalline work on his 1 yard TD (which mostert was dominating), and he finished with 19 opps (5 targets)... we have the same scenario this week, and the game shouldn't be a blow out... we know he has boom potential, but now he has a good floor too. In Hills 2 games without Waddle, he has a huge 37% target share, with a 10.43 aDOT... that's better than Diggs on the other side, and he is more favorable to have the passing script... C. Wilson play him if you want, he saw the most snaps, . We need salary relievers on this slate, I don't really like the idea of Cracraft, despite being the cheapest notable option... with Wilsons return, he's been an afterthought. Berrios is practically the same price as Smythe, yet is the WR3, and maybe the 4th or 5th option on this team WHEN on the field.... I think if mass entering, I'd have one of these guys at most, maybe Claypool despite never seeing the field really.., I'll probably fall more too Smythe/J. Wilson/Knox

 

[ScopeY]

Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate

TBB/CAR

Bucs have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Panthers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Young has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Chubba has a bad run potential.
Bucs TTR is 13th.
Panthers TTR is 23rd (bad).
Pace of play is T-8th. O/U Rank is T-10th (Bad).

- Injuries - TBB -
- CAR -

-

MIN/DET

Vikings have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lions have a meh P/RB matchup.
Chandler~ has a bad run potential.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation. Montgomery/Gibbs have a good run potential.
Vikes TTR is T-11th.
Lions TTR is 3rd (good).
Pace of play is 5th (good). O/U Rank is 3rd.

- Injuries - MIN -
- DET -

-

JAC/TEN

Jaguars have a good P matchup, and a meh RB matchup.
Titans have a meh P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Etienne has a bad run potential.
Tannehill has a meh pass potential.
Jaguars TTR is T-6th.
Titans TTR is T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is T-13th (meh). O/U Rank is T-7th (meh).

- Injuries - JAC -
- TEN -

-

ATL/NOS

Falcons have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Saints have a great P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Heinicke?? has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Carr has a great pressure rate situation. Kamara?? has a meh run potential.
Falcons TTR is 15th (meh).
Saints TTR is T-6th.
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is T-5th (meh).

- Injuries - ATL -
- NOS -

NYJ/NEP

Jets have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Patriots have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Siemian has a bad pass potential. Hall has a bad run potential.
Zappe has a bad pass potential, and Zeke has a meh run potential.
Jets TTR is 26th (bad).
Pats TTR is 22nd (bad).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is 13th (bad).

- Injuries - NYJ -
- NEP -

-

CLV/CIN

Browns have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Bengals have a bad P/RB matchup.
Driskel has a meh pressure rate situation.
Browning has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Mixon has a meh run potential.
Browns TTR is 25h (bad).
Bengals TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is 10th. O/U Rank is 9th (Bad).

- Injuries - CLV -
- CIN -

-

Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)

PHI/NYG

Eagles have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Giants have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Hurts has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Swift has a great run potential.
Taylor has a bad pressure rate situation. Barkley has a meh run potential.
Eagles TTR is 5th (good).
Giants TTR is 19th (meh).
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is T-5th (meh).

- Injuries - PHI -
- NYG -

-

DAL/WAS

Cowboys have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Dak has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Howell has a bad pressure rate situation, and pass potential.
Cowboys TTR is 1st (great).
Commanders TTR is T-20th (meh).
Pace of play is T-8th. O/U Rank is 2nd (good).

- Injuries - DAL -
- WAS -

-

CHI/GBP

Bears have a great P/RB matchup.
Packers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Fields has a bad pressure rate situation. Herbert~~ has a great run potential.
Love has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. A. Jones has a meh run potential.
Bears TTR is T-11th.
Packers TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is 4th.

- Injuries - CHI -
- GBP -

-

LAR/SFO

Rams have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a good P/RB matchup.
R. Freeman? has a good run potential.
Darnold has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Mitchell? has a good run potential.
Rams TTR is T-17th (meh).
49ers TTR is T-6th.
Pace of play is 15th (meh). O/U Rank is T-7th (meh).

- Injuries - LAR -
- SFO -

-

KCC/LAC

Chiefs have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Chargers have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Gabbert has a great pass potential.
Stick has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Chiefs TTR is 24th (Bad).
Chargers TTR is 16th (meh).
Pace of play is 4th (good). O/U Rank is 12th (bad).

- Injuries - KCC -
- LAC -

-

SEA/ARI

Seahawks have a great P/RB matchup.
Cardinals have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Geno has a great pass potential. Walker has a good run potential.
Conner has a great run potential.
Seahawks TTR is 2nd.
Cards TTR is T-6th.
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is 1st (good).

- Injuries - SEA -
- ARI -

-

DEN/LVR

Broncos have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Raiders have a great P/RB matchup.
Stidham has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
O'Connell has a good pressure rate situation,
Broncos TTR is T-20th (meh),
Raiders TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is T-10th (bad).

- Injuries - DEN -
- LVR -

-

 

[ScopeY]

Sun Night/Showdown Slate

BUF/MIA

Bills have a good P/RB matchup.
Dolphins have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Allen has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. J. Cook has a great run potential.
Tua has a good pass potential.
Pace of play is T-13th overall.

- Injuries - BUF - On D, DT Phillips (44%) is out for 2nd week.
- MIA - On D, S Holland (94%) is Q to return from a 4 week hiatus, LB Baker (87%) is also Q to return from a 3 week hiatus. LB Chubb (81%)/CB Howard(94%) are out. On O, RB/WR Mostert/Waddle are Q but not expected to play.

Cook 2 weeks ago saw a season high 75% of snaps, I don't think Murray/Fournette are really going to eat into him much on other closer scripts either, and in blowouts/2+ possession leads (last week) he still had 19 opps..... I think he has a very good floor, and maybe not a ceiling as the top dogs, but it's still a healthy combination. In the last 4 weeks, Diggs has had 6, 9 , 8, and 7 PPR points.... but he's had a 31.5% target share, and a 10.94 aDOT.... that is a true regression candidate waiting to explode, and if people are going to be off of him because of his perceived poor performance, I am going to jump right on in... I don't know how much Gab I'll have, but he can defnitely be considered too... his target share isn't great at 12.25%, but his aDOT at 21.08 is massive/tourney HR hitter, but he isn't cheap, and we know he can dud you. I don't hate kincaid either.. he is another one I can see others being scared of because of the return of Knox, but while his playing time is down, he still has a really respectably 19.5% target share/9.32 aDOT, which isn't elite tier, but that is a step below, and we are talking about a game with only 2 teams for pools of players. Nobody else really interests me..... Diggs>Cook>>>Kincaid>>>Davis.

We just saw Achane in his first game without Mostert, and while he still split duties with Wilson (in terms of snap count), he did get the goalline work on his 1 yard TD (which mostert was dominating), and he finished with 19 opps (5 targets)... we have the same scenario this week, and the game shouldn't be a blow out... we know he has boom potential, but now he has a good floor too. In Hills 2 games without Waddle, he has a huge 37% target share, with a 10.43 aDOT... that's better than Diggs on the other side, and he is more favorable to have the passing script... C. Wilson play him if you want, he saw the most snaps, . We need salary relievers on this slate, I don't really like the idea of Cracraft, despite being the cheapest notable option... with Wilsons return, he's been an afterthought. Berrios is practically the same price as Smythe, yet is the WR3, and maybe the 4th or 5th option on this team WHEN on the field.... I think if mass entering, I'd have one of these guys at most, maybe Claypool despite never seeing the field really.., I'll probably fall more too Smythe/J. Wilson/Knox

posted some quick thoughts.... sorry wasn't around this weekend