Big slate, hoping I have time to get to it all, but getting most of the template down (will get to O/U and TTR's closer to game time so it's more accurate.
1 PMs/Main Slate
ARI/ATL
Cards have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Falcons have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
McSorley has a great ASR matchup, Conner has a good ALY push.
Allgeier? has a great ALY push
Cards TTR is T-17th.
Falcons TTR is T-9th.
Pace of play is 12th overall, 11th in MS. OURank is T-7th.
- Injuries - ARI - On D, S Baker (98%) is out, a few Q's. On O, Conner/Green are Q with illness.
- ATL - nothing major.
- This game features 2 very cheaply priced offenses going against poor defenses... it is a candidate for ATLEAST one-offs/mini-stacks. In 5 of Conners last 7 games (when he returned from injury) he's hit OVER 90% of snaps, and one of those ones he didn't I believe it was a blowout benching, NOBODY this year has even done it more than 2 times except Barkley (3). If he's healthy, and playing, he is a priority for me. Last week was another 20+ opportunity game, that featured 8 targets... that's huge. he's scored in 6 straight, and has never had under 3 targets since returning (averaging more than 7 in his L3....) YES. I know Dortch just went ham with McSorley, but if Green is back, they will be splitting WR3 duties at best. Hopkins is still over 90% of snaps, and he does not have as hard of a matchup as last week, plus McSorley has an awesome ASR matchup, and ya he had only 1 catch, but he still had 10 targets. I wIll add though, if Green is out, Dortch is only 3K, which is nuts. Probably pass at TE, as he's starting to get out of punt salary range, but he had played b2b over 80% of snaps, so I get it.
Allgeier had his highest snap game with Patterson in the lineup (59%), and he turned it into a 23 opportunitiy game (5 targets - season high), and another b2b 100+ total yard game. He's way to cheap/disrespected on DKs, and will be high on my list. Pass on Patterson. Ridder is averaging 30 pass attempts/g in his 2 started, and London has a massive 35.1% target share, 10/g, with an ok aDOT/r of 7.9... he is clearly Ridders #1 option, and he's under 5K, he can definitely be played. Pass at TE, they start 3, they average 2-3 targets tops, and we can't guess accurately who'd get the TD if one does.
IND/NYG
Colts have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Giants have a meh P/RB matchup.
Foles? has a meh ASR matchup. Moss has a good ALY push.
Jones has a bad ASR matchup, Barkley has a bad ALY push.
Colts TTR is T-25th (last).
Giants TTR is T-12th.
Pace of play is 6th overall, 5th in MS. OURank is 13th (last).
- Injuries - IND - On D, no CB Rodgers (50%), but Moore (100%) may be returning. On O, WR Dulin/TE Granson are Q.
- NYG - On D, they may be getting CB Jackson (87%) back, DE/LB Williams/Ojulari are Q.
- Moss played 69% of snaps last week (more than prior week), and Deon Jackson had the same amount as Wilkins at 15%. He's still very cheap on DK's, but he isn't involved in the passing game, they have the worst TT of the week, and worst OURank too, so I'll temper my expectations, but I'd keep him at the bottom of my player pool.... there's definitely scenarios for 20+ opportunities if the colts to play with a lead, and he definitely gets the RZ work. Same as I said monday night, in terms of priority, I def want Pittman, and then Pierce over campbell if I'm punting, but its not a showdown slate so there's a ton of options, and I think Pittman or nobody is fine here. But know Campbell/Pierce do see a ton of snaps. IF Granson is out, Woods becomes a part of my TE punt list, as he saw almost 70% of snaps, 5 targets, and a really good TE aDOT/r of 9.7.
I know Ekeler just had 2 TDs, and scored 24 PPR FPs on this team, but overall, they've been stingy vs the run, they have a bad ALY push, and Barkley's the 3rd most expensive back. If you must have him, he isn't terrible though, I mentioned earlier that Conner is the only back with 5 games of 90%+ snaps, and barkley is 2nd with 3, well one of those came last week, and he's seen his volume ramp up too with b2b games with a TD, 9 targets/g avg, and 25 opportunity/g avg... he obviosuly has a good floor/ceiling combo, I just think there's a path to not hitting value. NYG WRs are finally priced a bit higher, but they're still cheap. The matchup is a bit tougher, and best case I'd one-off Slayton or Hodgins personally.
Edit: I'd like to add, the Colts D is the only one to be top 5 in ASR/ALY in the whole slate (jets/mia are close)
CHI/DET
Bears have a great P/RB matchup.
Lions also have a great P/RB matchup.
Fields has the worst MS ASR matchup (per usual),
Goff has the best ASR matchup, Swift? has a great ALY push.
Bears TTR is 8th.
Lions TTR is 1st.
Pace of play is T-9th overall, T-8th in MS. OURank is 1st.
- Injuries - CHI - On D, CB Vildor (79%)/S Jackson (94%) are out for 4th week, and CB Johnson (97%)/LB Sanborn (76%) are out for 2nd week, 3 Q interior guys. On O, WRs Pettis/St.Brown/Claypool are Q.
- DET - On D, nothing major yet, but S's Joseph (96%)/Elliott (91%) are Q, and haven't practiced. On O, WR Reynolds is Q (didn't practice).
- We have a game where both offense have GREAT DVOA matchups, and the highest O/U by 5.5 points over 2nd. It's 100% stackable, and where a majority of people will be going. OFf the bat, Montgomery seems like a pass 1), he has yet to crack 21 opportunities in ANY game this year, 2) Fields can easily vulture him, 3) he's expensive, 4) I just mentioned how this game will be stacked all over.... I think leveraging off his ownership is the smarter thing to do. 1 Positive, he has yet to see under 3 targets last 5 weeks, and in those 5 weeks, he's doubled his TD total (4) over his 9 prior games (2)... so he's definitely trending up, but passing imo. If we aren't going naked fields (which is probably smarter) we want a candidate to pair him with. We know Kmet has had GPP winning weeks in games fields rips it, but he also has had a TERRIBLE aDOT/r recently, and while he still plays a ton to all of the snaps, Griffin is starting to mix in too (hitting atleast 25% past 2 weeks), I'm not saying keep him off, but he isn't a must. We need to take a wait and see approach on the WRs, as we don't know yet who's playing, pettis does seem liker the peppered PPR guy, while pringle/jones/st,brown are the deep shotters.
Swift saw his highest snap count since week 1 last week, at 56%, but he turned it into just 9 opportunities, his lowest since week 11. I'd like to say screw him, and throw his name out the window, but he's sooooo cheap now (cheapest of the year), and I'm hoping his past weeks of burning people keep them off their lists... I have interest. No to Williams/Jackson. I just can't believe they haven't moved Charks price... if you take out the toughest matchup vs the jets, he's had 15+ PPR FPs (with taking out his TD) in 3 straight, he has a huge aDOT/r of 14 in those games, with a 13% target share... this matchup is as good as any, and he definitely needs to be there. St. Brown can be played every week, if you take out weeks 4-7 where he got hurt/didn't play/or had a bye, he's averaging over 10 targets/g, and has never had lower than 8... talk about safety, with RZ looks to add (averaging 3 a game in his last 4), those are my 2 priorities, swift is a further down 3rd.
JAC/HOU
Jaguars have a good P/RB matchup.
Texans have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Lawrence has a good ASR matchup,
Mills? has a good ASR matchup, Freeman? has the worst ALY push.
Jags TTR is T-6th.
Texans TTR is T-17th.
Pace of play is 5th overall, 4th in MS. OURank is 5th.
- Injuries - JAC - On D, DE Smoot (45%) is out, , couple of Q's. On OL, the 2nd best rated OLineman Robinson is out for 2nd week.
- HOU - Healthy on D, on O, no WR Collins, RB Ogunbowale is Q, TE Quitoriano is Q.
- We are playing Houston, so our primary focus is RB over WRs. Etienne does have some knocks on him though, he hasn't scored since week 9, he has seen his snap count drop 4 wees straight since, the jags have been more inclined to throw of late, and they really aren't playing for much this week. But having said that, he still has b2b games with 20+ opportunities, and at least 3 targets in each, he doesn't break the bank, it is a divisional game, so I'd think they take it seriously throughout (so the coach says), and the texans are last in FPs given up to RBs. So ya, he'll be on my player pool. Lawrence has 5X'd+ his salary in 3 of last 5 weeks (and last week was a bad weather game), so I don't want to take him out of my player pool, but he is the most expensive he's been all year, is technically in a tough matchup too, and at best, I'll take just a dot of him. If you do take a WR here, Zay/Kirk are the only choices, marvin is playing less, and Zay/Kirk each have over 21% target shares last 5 weeks, zay topping him in targets by 1/g (and who i'd rather have at a cheaper price if I go this route ---- probably wont). Or you could go to Engram... He has become a volume king, averaging 10 targets/g his last 4, 1 rz/t/g too, but know he has a measley aDOT/r of 3.5, 70% of his production came after the catch. I'm not saying he's a bad play, but he may not offer as much upside as we want.
I mean look, Freeman is in the 4K salary range, played 55% of snaps last week, and had 17 opportunties, with a TD, he can easily 3X+ his salary, but he has a terrible ALY push (averaging just 3.1 YPC in past 2 games, and one was vs a KC D where he had a middle of the road ALY push, last week he had the worst, this week he does too, and 1 target a game isn't going to cut it... there's also a chance he lands below 50% of snaps if they fall behind. I think passing is much smarter. What we do want is the WRs here. Cooks cmae back from injury, and played 76% of snaps, and had a massive 31% target share (9 targets), he has a super safe floor, with some upside, plus he's cheap AF. In tourneys, if mass entering, don't forget about Moore, who led in snaps last week at 91%, and still had a 9 aDOT/r, Dorsett is the cheapest of the 3 (and almost min priced), playing just 58% of snaps, but he had the best aDOT/r of the 3, at 14, and can definitely be a homerun hitter for GPPs. I guess if Quintoriano is out, Akins (over Brevin), could be a punt option, idk if I go there though.
CLV/WAS
Browns have a meh P/RB matchup.
Comms have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chubb has a meh ALY push.
Robinson has a great ALY push.
Browns TTR is 21st.
Comms TTR is T-14th.
Pace of play is 15th overall, 12th in MS. OURank is 11th.
- Injuries - CLV - On D, LB Owusu (75%) is out for 3rd week, LB Takitaki (65%) for 4th week, notable DE Clowney (62%) is Q. On O, WR Cooper is Q.
- WAS - On D, DE Smith-Williams (60%) is out, LB Bostic (48%) is out for 2nd week, a few Q's (CB ST-Juste (89%)/CB Holmes (51%)/S Curl (99%). On O, RB Gibson is out.
- I don't like playing RBs against WAS, especially one who is 5th most expensive, doesn't get targets, and has struggled to break 55% of snaps for most of the year. I don't think you go cute with Hunt, I know he's in that 4K range, but why not go with the starter in freeman who's at the same area. Hunt plays less snaps, and would need a mutli-td game to be optimal, not banking on it. Kind of feel bad for Watsons 4 games since returning, he's had to play defenses in the top half of DVOA, going up against another this week, and some bad weather conditions in those games too, he has yet to have a 2+ TD game, I think he goes virtually un-owned, he is the cheapest he has been, and I do think they play from behind, I don't think they'll be great at running the ball, which should kind of help, he's hit 20+ rush yards in each game... I'm not saying play him, but I'd rather take him in 1, than Lawrence. The best part, is he has obvious stacking candidates, and one may be out. Cooper has had an average of 8 targets/g with Watson, a good aDOT/r of 9.2, and 1.25 rz/t/g too, and he doesn't break the bank either, DPJ is a lesser version of Cooper, as he's lower in targets/aDOT/r/etc., but he is cheaper, and obviously becomes big value if cooper sits. Njoku is the 3rd option, he has a good almost 7 targets a game with watson, but his aDOT/r stanks (2.7), but he does hold some TD equity, with his almost average of 3 RZ/t/g. He's slightly cheaper than the Engram/Kmets, and will probably go lower owned too, if Cooper is out, you'd think 10 targets could be a floor and would then peak my interest greatly.
Going into the week, I saw a great DVOA/ALY push for robinson, and was thinking he'd be to sexy of a pick for a matchup between these 2 teams that typically seems ugly. But then you also see Gibson is out, He's definitely in line for his highest snap % count of the year, he's hit 3 20+ opportunities a game in his last 4, they're home faves, and he's so cheap at 5.2K, he is definitely on my list. It was awhile ago, but weeks 1-6 in Wentz' starts, McLaurin only average 6~ targets a game, ugh, Samuel was the PPR floor guy, and would be the ONLY thing I debate, but probably won't have. Even in his last 2 drives last week, he had 16 pass attempts, 6 went to WRs, 3 of which were to Samuel, McLaurin got 1 9 yard catch. Thomas is an ok option, he had 5 targets/g with Wentz weeks 1-4, with an ok aDOT/r over 5, but nothing to write home about, and I won't be going there.
NOS/PHI
Saints have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Eagles have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Dalton has a bad ASR matchup.
Sanders has a good ALY push.
Saints TTR is 23rd.
Eagles TTR is 5th.
Pace of play is 8th overall, 7th in MS. OURank is T-7th.
- Injuries - NOS - Just Q's on D, notably CB Lattimore (92%)/LB Werner (84%)/S Maye (99%). On O, RBs Kamara/Washington are Q (obvi no Ingram), and WR Olave is Q (obvi no Landry)
- PHI - On D, CB Maddox (75%) is out. On OL, no T Johnson (best rated) is out. On O, Hurts/Brown/Sanders are Q.
- I don't want to take kamara off my list, but it doesn't feel good clicking him either... his PPR floor has kind of fallen off from where it was at the start of the season, but he's still under 7K (barely), it technically is a good matchup, he is coming off B2B 23+ opportunity games, so there's definitely bright spots, but I understand why you wouldn't want to play him either. Saints didn't really play WRs in last weeks tundra, but Shaheed still managed 5 targets on 43% snap count (leading all WRs), IMO he's in line for a 70%+ snap count this week, and is an intriguing cheap/punt lineup option in a game where I think they play from behind throughout. If Olave is out, I'll have interest in Johnson at 3.5K, otherwise, I feel like his targets are to low for my liking.
I think its laughable that Sanders is under 6K, but the reality is, without TDs, he's hard to produce for you as he really isn't a PPR guy in this offense, and unfortunately hurts is a freaking vulture. He's a poor man Chubb, but he comes in MUCH cheaper, and plays for a much better offense... he has a path to 20+ touches, but its somebody I'll only have a share or two off. Weeks 11-15 without Goedert, Brown/Smith made up 56%+ target share, with both being above 10 aDOT/r's, Go back and look at their logs, and they are like minimum 10 point floors, with GPP winning upside. Goedert comes back, plays 94%+ of snaps, and these WRs get deeper aDOTs, and a higher target share... my point is, I don't think it matters, obviously I'd like a better enivronment than big faves/middle pace and o/u, but when I've been underweight, I've been burnt, not sure how I'm approaching it, but I'll have some shares of these guys, especially if some of that secondary above is out. Don't really want Goedert but I guess he has upside playing 90%+ of snaps, but his aDOT before injury was low, he's at best the 3rd option on the team, they're faves, so his volume might be to low for me.
DEN/KCC
Broncos have a good P/RB matchup.
Chiefs have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Russ has a bad ASR matchup.
Mahomes has a good ASR matchup, Pacheco? has the best ALY push.
Broncos TTR is T-25th.
Chiefs TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 1st overall/MS. OURank is 3rd.
- Injuries - DEN - On D, DE Jones (81%) is out for 3rd week, a handful of D Q's. On O, WRs/TE Hinton/Jeudyy/Sutton/Dulcich are all Q.
- KCC - nothing serious.
- We just say Russ having a season high game a few weeks back against this same D, I think he's a safe play, but probably doesn't come at the same low ownership he did in the first meeting. I still have interest however, as I believe they play from behind, its the best pace, and one of the few good OU's on the slate, we just have to take a wait and see approach on who to pair him with. I won't be on Murray.
McKinnon saved 20%+ ownership last week when I called a fade to him (and still think it actually was right, as he had just 12.8 points, with a TD). He only had 8 total opportunities, and unless we think this is a close game/playing from behind, please don't chase it, he's also even more expensive than last week. Pacheco is a 15 floor touch guy of late, has the best ALY push, are big faves, and is playing for the 2nd highest TT offense in the slate, he's cheaper than McKinnon, and I hope people look that way instead of here, because he's the guy to play. This WR core is frustrating to play, last week JuJu>Watson>Toney>MVS>Moore all saw time (in that order), they all grade out well as they are all cheap, but its rough throwing darts, ideally we want DEN to keep it within 1 to 2 possessions late, but aside from Juju, you can't trust it. On top of that, the guy you can trust, plays a position where we typically punt, and he costs an arm and a leg to play. Having said that, I will always consider playing him, as nobody at that position has his upside, and also floor safety. He's seen less than 8 targets just 3 times all year (where he got 7/7/6 total), despite not scoring a TD in 4 straight weeks, he still finishes in the top 10 in PPR scoring at the position, there's a lot of 5K~ range RBs in this slate, and this may be the week to pay up for kelce.
MIA/NEP
Dolphins have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Pats have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Mac has a meh ASR matchup, Stevenson has a meh ALY push.
Dolphins TTR is 20th.
Pats TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is T-9th overall, T-8th in MS. OURank is T-9th.
- Injuries - MIA - On D, a ton of Q's, closest to GTD is LB Chubb (68%). On O, no Tua, possibly no WR Cracraft.
- NEP - On D, CB M. Jones (47%), CB Ja. Jones (54%) are out. Jo Jones (83%)/S Mills (75%) are Q. On O, no WR Parker/no TE Smith, WR Thornton/TE Henry/RB Stevenson are Q.
- I don't want to discount Teddy, he's obviously super cheap, and has 2 of the best WRs in the NFL. There's a chance Pats are without 4 guys in the secondary (we know atleast 2 are out), and if so, I'll definitely be overweight then... but overall, those guys aren't cheap, and in a vacuum, we are over paying for a low projected performance (being that its teddy not tua), but if they go un-owned, it's kind of silly not to like them. Is smythe in? Yep, so no Gesicki. I think we have to pass at RB, they're cheap, but they eat into each other to much, they have a difficult matchup, a low TTR, and there's better options at that price.
I guess if Stevenson is out, we could have some interest in Harris, but I probably won't be on it. If Stevenson plays, I actually think he's still an okay option, even when Harris returned for the second time, Stevenson averaged 80% snaps over 2 games before Harris was out again.... but he's expensive, and not a must have. If you are going Teddy + 1 or 2 of the big 2, you definitely should do a game stack, as the Pats have a great P matchup, and they're cheap to bring it back. Meyers is the obvious choice, he plays every snap, leads the team in target share, has a great 12.3 aDOT/r since his return, to go with 2 rz/t/g. I will note, Thornton has now had 3 games with 88/92/93% of snaps, he hasn't done much with it, but that kind of volume is tough to ignore on a guy who's 3K (the minimum). The one guy who I like even as a standalone/one-off is Henry, with no Joonu, he could be in line for 80-90%+ snaps, MIA has been bad against that position, he should have a 5 target floor imo, which is solid for 3K/point option.
CAR/TBB
Panthers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bucs have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Darnold has a meh ASR matchup.
Brady has a great ASR matchup, Fournette? has a meh ALY push.
Panthers TTR is 22nd.
Bucs TTR is T-14th.
Pace of play is 4th overall, 3rd in MS. OURank is 12th.
- Injuries - CAR - On D, CB Horn (92%) is out, they have 2 other CBs out for some time too. On O ,TE Tremble is Q.
- TBB - A lot of Q's on D, only D one is CB Davis (94%). On O, WR Jones is Q.
- This game is really about how you script it. If Car plays with a lead, we will have a slow paced game, and good chance for a 100+ rusher on their side, if TBB does, we will have a very fast paced game, with a ton of opportunity. I like the range-y ness here for scenario 2, and I think the shitty OURank will keep people off. Okay, so I don't care for foreman here, his floor is to low, as he has no PPR value, and chubba will get a bigger role if playing from behind. I guess you can make an arguement for Hubbard if you picture it playing out this way, as he did have a 63% snap share when they last played from behind (just 9 opps though). If Tremble is out, and you want to take a shot on Ian Thomas, be my guest, but in the 4 games with darnold he has a negative aDOT/r, and terrible target share anyways, plus in the 2 games without tremble this year, he still couldn't break 3 targets, 98% pass, but he is a punt price. What we do want, as a bring back, or standalone, is the cheap DJ Moore who has a 29% target share with darnold, a sexy 16.9 aDOT/r, and plays every down, in a game where I think they have to throw a lot. I do think Marshall is a good tourney pivot, he plays 90%~ of snaps too, and has an aDOT/r at 14.7 (small sample size) with darnold. Moore>Marshall>Hubbard, can talk me into Thomas if not Tremble too, but idk.
Brady is a phenomenal tournament play. I mentioned it in my first comment above, but I think he goes very low owned, he isn't priced with the cheapies, but isn't priced as one of the top guys either, people he's broken 20 FPs just once in the last 7 games, but he has a great DVOA/ASR matchups, the pace is great, they are by far the #1 throwing team in the league, and CAR is going to be without there best CB. Evans/Godwin are the 90%+ snap guys. Since Wk 4 (when both were playing at the same time, healthy) Evans has averaged 8.5+ targets, to Godwins 10.25, butr the aDOT/r disparity is massive at 11.1 for evans to 4.9 to godwin. It's only a matter of time before Evans hits one (and can still get you there without doing so), I'll have both, but I'll be slanted towards Evans. You can consider Gage and his cheap price if Jones is a no go, otherwise I'd probably pass, Unless Brate is a suprise inactive, I can't trust Otton, pass. We're back to the Fournette show, in 3 of the last 4 weeks its been a 60/40 split in his favor, he's averaged 7 targets/g in his last 4 games (since his return), and is coming off a mammoth 30 opportunity game, and he's still priced at 5.6K, like what!?... If going all in on him, make sure to do a lineup or two with White, just incase fuckery is around.
4PMs/Main Slate Cont.
SFO/LVR
49ers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Raiders have a bad P/RB matchup.
Purdy has a great ASR matchup.
49ers TTR is 3rd.
Raiders TTR is 19th.
Pace of play is 16th overall (last), 13th in MS (last). OURank is 4th.
- Injuries - SFO - On D, DTs Givens (48%)/Ridgeway (39%) are out for 4th week. On O, no WR Deebo.
- LVR - On D, CB Ya-Sin (89%)/LB Brown (80%) are out for 4th week, LB Perryman (70%)/DE Jones (78%) are out. On O, RB White is Q.
- This is a tough one to play for me. 49ers have the 3rd best TTR, so we know we can atleast one-off here... but I think people come here and my gut says to be underweight. We have a game that is dead last in pace, do you think a QB change helps or hurts that........ hurts that is my guess. Big spread. If you think Stidham is the answer, let me know please, as someone may have more information than I do, because if he can keep it competitive than I'll have more interest. Some arguements for CMC? There is a ton of cheap RBs that people will not want to roster the RB1 in price. Despite playing with a big lead, he still managed 75% of snaps last week, and played against one of the better run D's in the league, they're faves this weak vs a poorer defense missing 2 more (now 4) key starters on D. Idk if I go here, but I get it if you do. Some negatives? He breaks your bank, there's a chance he does actually get scripted out, in his 4 starts with Purdy, he's had 2 of his worst target games, which isn't nice to see when paying that kind of salary. Post Deebo, Aiyuk is just averaging 5.5 targets, he's to expensive for me, I'd rather go down to Jennings if I go here, he's averaging just 4 targets, but he plays just as much, and is almost half the price. Post Deebo, Kittle has had the highest target share on the team (28%), the best aDOT/r of the 3 guys mentioned (on more volume too), is the only one with RZ/t's of the 3, and has had b2b 2 TD games.
I don't know what to do with the raiders, Jacobs is to expensive, and while he does play a lot, he's gone 4 straight games averaging just 2 targets/g (none more than 3). I think we have to pass. If Adams goes completely overlooked, it could be smart to have some shares, he's still a target monster, we know they'll be in a passing script, what could be off the bat, and he's the cheapest he's been since week 9. Hollins grades out well, same conversation as Adams, but he does come at half the price, yet he plays just as much and his targets/aDOT/r are not half of adams. I want to point out, since Waller returned, he has had thebest aDOT/r at 13.4, but only averaging 4 targets/g, and still hasn't had 50% of snaps... if that gets ramped up, I'd be all in on him, otherwise passing.
NYJ/SEA
Jets have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Seahawks have a bad P/RB matchup.
Geno has a meh ASR matchup, Walker has a bad ALY push.
Jets TTR is T-9th.
Seahawks TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is 2nd overall, 2nd in MS. OURank is 6th.
- Injuries - NYJ - On D, notable S Joyner (100%) is Q.
- SEA - On D, notable S Neal (84%) is Q. On O, TE Dissly is out, RBs Walker/Homer are Q, WRs Lockett/Goodwin are Q.
- With Ty Johnson back in the mix, it muddled this backfield even more. None of the 3 played more than 41% of snaps, none less than 20%. I will note, I still think Zonovan leads, and Jets have been in negative scripts for a few weeks now, which vegas doesn't think happens this week. He has a great DVOA matchup, I just mentioned they're faves, his PPR floor evaporated with Wilson, but remember with White, it was okay, at 3.33/g, he can be on my list. I don't think Conklin is a bad play, he does play 70% floor of snaps, SEA has been BAD vs TE's, he's cheap, and averaged 6 targets/g with White. Not going to get cute at WR, its a big slate, and we know Wilson has been the target guy, and actually led in aDOT/r with White too, he doesn't break the bank either... just know SEA has been most stingy on D to this position.
Idk what to do with Walker, it's the jets D, but we know he has slate breaking upside, he play just 53% of snaps last week (because of a blowout) and still managed 28 total opportunities, which is gargantuan, the pace in this matchup is good, and he may go very low owned. We know know whats going on at WR yet, but its typically not a D we want to play against.... I'll probably pass here, despite concentrated volume. I do have some mild interest in fant, its been the one weaker part of this D, theres no Dissly, and he's actually had an ok TE aDOT/r of 6 since the bye, plus a RZ/t/g.
MIN/GBP
Vikes have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Packers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Cook has a great ALY push.
Rodgers has a good ASR matchup, Jones has a good ALY push.
Vikes TTR is T-12th.
Packers TTR is 4th.
Pace of play is 11th overall, 9th in MS. OURank is 2nd.
- Injuries - MIN - On D, DT Lynch (27%) is out for 2nd week
- GBP - On D, DE Lowry (54%) is out, CB Nixon (40%) is Q. On O, WR Watson is Q.
- we have a pass funnel d (MIN) vs a run funnel d (GBP), if we can get a minny to lead script, it could work out beautifully. I will say, I don't want to be overweight here if most turn to this game because it stands out with the second highest O/U, when the pace sucks, and there are some bad matchups on the table. Cook has a decent PPR floor, he has TD equity, he plays 80% of snaps, he has a supreme matchup, and he's priced as the RB8.... I won't talk anyone off jefferson, he is on a mission, he has now had 3 straight games with at least 15 targets, but in the last 5 weeks, they've had a positive game script maybe for about 1.5 quarters (vs the Jets), in every other game they either were behind or within one possession, vegas still sees it playing that one, but I'm just mentioning there's a chance MIN plays with a lead, and his volume projection doesn't hit, and that will absolutely hurt you as he's not only the highest priced he's ever been, he's the highest priced player entirely. Hockenson has been great, but I want to point out that Irv Smith is projected to be activated, and while it may not mean much, there's a chance he eats a bit into his production/volume, so I'll probably pass here, plus I don't want to chase his monster performance.
Man I want to play Jones so badly, he is completely off the injury report, but still, 2 of his last 3 games he failed to reach 40% of snaps, and if he gets hurt on my lineup, I'll be so upset. Despite the limited time, he still out targeted dillon (averaging 4 targets/g, again on limited time), if GBP play from behind, those numbers will only go up, and Jones should be more involved than the seasonal average of a 60-45% split. Do I have interest if watson is back? sure... but Lazard is still the deeper aDOT/r guy of the bunch (wanted to use of the pack), while also leading in target share, oh and he's not cheaper than watson too... just give me Lazard. If you want the ancillary guys, or if watson is out, Doubs should be the guy to go for. Pass at Te.
LAR/LAC
Rams have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chargers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Baker has a meh ASR matchup, Akers has a good ALY push.
Ekeler has a meh ALY push.
Rams TTR is 24th.
Chargers TTR is T-6th.
Pace of play is 7th overall, 6th in MS. OURank is T-9th.
- Injuries - LAR - On D, Notable LB Floyd (85%) is Q. On O, TE Higbee is Q.
- LAC - On D, S James (96%) is out, DE Gaziano (37%) is out for 2nd week. Bosa should be returning.
- Rams have not been afraid to run the ball, Akers has now played 72%+ of snaps in 3 of 4, he's coming off a monster 25 touch, 140+ yard, 3 TD performance, he's not expensive, he has a great RB matchup/good ALY push. He's definitely on my list. I will note, they are big dogs, and he could be scripted out but that would take more than 2+ possession to do so (based off past 4 weeks). Pass at WR, none have had better than 5 target average in the 3 weeks with baker. Higbee plays 90%+ of snaps, he has double the amount of RZ targets over the next guy (with baker), and seen his targets ramp up in 3 straight weeks. He is Q, I probably won't have him, as I hate his 2.8 aDOT/r, but I understand why you'd go here.
We have 2 teams on the opposite end of the spectrum in regard to pace, because I think Rams find success on the ground, I think that takes away plays/opportunities on the other end, and it makes me want to be underweight at best to this offense. I can't play this big of a price on Ekeler when I think his targets will be on the lower end. Since Williams return, Allen still has a massive 32% target share, it comes with a low a/DOT/r of 5.4, but 12 targets+/g with 2 rz/t/g average is nothing to scoff at. Williams is the HR guy though if you want to go there for tourneys. Pass at TE if Everett is back as they play atleast 2 (sometimes 3)
