Saturday/2 Game Slate
PHI@WAS
Eagles have a great P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Hurts has a great pass potential.
Mariota has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Eagles TTR is 1st (good).
Commanders TTR is 4th (meh/last)
Pace of play is T-14th (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd.
- Just one to start and say that in this 2 game slate, we need to find minimum amounts of salary savers, so this may be really about constructing an odd game script, otherwise you are riding with the masses, and will find a hard time climbing the ladder.
Hurts probably has the best range among the QBs on this slate, but my only fear for him and the pass catchers, is that the volume evaporates when they play in a positive rush script --- he only had 15 pass attempts last week, he still managed 23 FPs, thanks to a 25% TD per completion ratio, but that isn't sustainable obviously. Having said that, you have to take your shots in tourneys, because if the script flips, we know not only is their an uptick in volume, but the offense is so concentrated. Since the bye, both Brown/Smith have aDOTs >12.4, Brown has a bigger target share though (30% to 24%), but he also doubles him in RZ targets, he has the higher ceiling, but I think both are viable. Goedert in that same time frame has a 20% target share, which is probably the best amongst TEs on this slate, but he is range-y, and I think I want to play him only in lineups where I get weird (like double TE/PHI onslaught), otherwise, I want to fade the ownership, and get different at this position, as there are definitely outcomes where he is not optimal. I don't see a reason to get cute with Dotson/Cooper, I am sure there are better salary saving plays, with much higher floor/ceiling combos. And to Barkley, he is coming off B2B 22+ opp games (floor of 2 targets), and what really stands out is last week he barely even played into the 3rd quarter, and still have 25 opps (3 targets), he was on pace for a season high 30+ opps IMO, if you believe what vegas is telling us, I'd probably just stick to him and/or hurts here,
In the 2 recent games we have had Mariota + McLaurin (Wk 13 and 15), he has a 29.5% target share/16.11 aDOT, and we already know the most likely script we are going to see.... he is probably my WR1 overall on this slate, and keep in mind Ertz owns a 21% target share, despite playing in just 1 of those games --- Deebo benefitted the most from that (he hit a 31% target share last week). While there is only really 2 TEs left on this team, both really weren't used laast week, and their target/aDOTs were both under 2 yards.... I maybe go here if mass entering in a lineup or 2, but really I am sticking to McLaurin, then Deebo. In general we want to avoid this backfield, but if you are playing Hurts + pass catchers, we may want to take a shot on Rodriguez or JCM, both have shown flashes of being good in terms of YPC, it just usually the script moves away from them, and the fact that both of them are now healthy, nobody will be playing them. My gut says JCM maybe will get the first shot, he was the lead at one point, and he looked good last week in Rodriguez's absence, but I understand if you want to go the other direction.
GBP@CHI
Packers have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bears have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Love has a great pass potential. Jacobs has a good rush potential.
Caleb has a good pressure rate situation. Swift~ has a good rush potential.
Packers TTR is 2nd (good).
Bears TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is T-7th. O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- I hope Jacobs suits up, I know he has TD equity, but since getting injured, his PPR floor has been bottomed out, and 2 of the L3 games he didn't even get to 60% of snaps, he is not worth his price, and if it wasn't for a 2 TD game last week, he would have barely even 2x'd this salary. Again, if he is in, I don't think we get cute with Wilson, but if he is out, it is almost impossible to ignore him, he had 30 opps last time out in that situation, and he is almost min priced --- he would allow you to get whoever you want on this slate too. This is probably the make or break for most lineups --- how do we attack the GBP WRs? Obviously Love is one way, and maybe pairing him with any 2 pass catchers. If they all are active, and nobody gets hurt in game, it is hard to trust Golden/Wicks, as Watson/Doubs see 80%+ of snaps, and Reeds #3 on that last, but with an increasing snap count as he gets healthier (we will see if that continues). Of those 3, Reed>Watson>Doubs is the target share breakdown, but don't forget Watson got hurt mid game, and fell just 1 target short, imo he is the #1... but I think Reed needs to be included. I think most peole go to Doubs because of name, but he is just running empty-less routes recently (5 targets across 2 games despite other WR injuries), I'd only have a touch of him if mass entering.
This will be the 3rd game in a row with no Odunze --- in the L2, Moore/Zacchaeus have both played at least 80% of snaps, and their metrics are 14.5%/11%, and 16.4/10.2 aDOTs, The target share seems meh, but not only is Odunze out, we also have no Burden, who had a big time 23.5% target share in those 2 games --- I doubt Duvernay/new WR4/5 see much playing time still. These 2 guys should be out there almost every play, and we may even see a lot more 2+ TE sets. I think both of these WRs are viable. Taking or Burden, it is actually Loveland that leads the team in the 2 games with targets (18%), and he has a good TE aDOT of 9.3 ---- I will have my fair share of him, but I think in tourneys, Kmet may be smarter, he actually plays a bit more, he has an even bigger aDOT (12.7), and they both have RZ work (2 targets a piece), He can very easily finish higher than him, and he will be at a lower ownership --- we want that leverage. Similar to Wilson, if smith is out, we want Monangai, if he is in, I dont mind going there, I just may be a touch underweight
