1 PMs/Saturday Slate
HOU/TEN
Texans have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Titans have a good P/RB matchup.
Pierce? has the worst ALY push.
Willis? has a meh ASR matchup. Henry has a good ALY push.
Texans TTR is 16th.
Titans TTR is T-13th.
Pace of play is 14th overall, 8th in MS. OURank is T-8th in MS.
- Injuries - HOU - On D, CB Nelson (99%) is Q, and remember they've been without CB Stingley (97%). On O, no RB Pierce, no WR Collins, WRs Cooks/Moore are Q. On OL, G Green is out for 2nd week.
- TEN - On D, CB Mitchell (51%)/LB Cole (45%) are out, CB Fulton (89%) is out for 3rd week, notable S Hooker (89%) is Q. On O, no QB Tanny, WR Burks is Q. On OL, no C Jones, no G Davis, no T Radunz, and obviously have been without Lewan.
- You attack the titans through the air. It helps that there is no Pierce, and that last week they had a 3 RBBC that ranged between 19 and 43% of snaps, just pass all together. IF Cooks is back, I have less interest in Moore, if Cooks is out, I'll probably lock him in and move on. But assuming Cooks is back, I'll probably be slightly underweight the field not knowing what direction to go, I do think Dorsett is a good tourney leverage play, most won't go to him, he's had low targets, but he's right near the minimum priced, and has played 71% of snaps (with Collins), 82%, 86% last 3 weeks... he definitely has a HR hit potential in there. Quitoriano is leading the snap share in HOU but he is primarily a blocker, Akins has had an avg of 4 targets/g in the 2 without cooks/collins, I won't go to him unless maybe Cooks is out, but he's an OK point option.
I know the Titans looks to be in a smash spot vs Houston, and running on them has been easy all year, but Titans are without 3 lineman that played last week, 3 lineman that were starters week 1 (2 overlap), and all 4 of which are the top rated on their team, to add, they have no tannehill, which should allow houston to not be scared of the pass at all. The pace sucks, the O/U isn't good, and henry is the #2 priced RB, I'm fading it. Look, the 2 starts Willis had, he averaged 13 total pass attempts... we can't trust the passing options if we think that is to happen again.... I will say, in those 2 starts, he was NEVER in a negative script, so MAYBE there's a scenario HOU gets a 2+ TD lead, and you'd get these WRs at 1% ownership, but I'll leave that to others to chase.
NYG/MIN
Giants have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Vikings have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Jones has a meh ASR matchup, Barkley as a meh ALY push.
Cook has a good ALY push.
Giants TTR is 8th.
Vikes TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 6th overall, 3rd in MS. OURank is 2nd in MS.
- Injuries - NYG - Nothing new.
- MIN - On D, DT Bullard (39%)/CB Evans (39%) are out for 3rd week. Notables LB Kendricks (98%)/CB Dantzler (82% are Q. On OL, T Brandel/C Bradbury are out for 2nd/3rd weeks.
- First off, this is one of 2? games in a dome, with all the weather issues, with draw a lot of attention (rightfully so, especially with a decent pace/great O/U. Barkley jumped right back into a high snap share (86%), and had a 26 opportunity game, in a tough environment, with a season high 8 targets... if that kind of volume is going to continue, in a slightly better matchup, he can be played with confidence, Colts backs last week had about 150~ yards, and 2 TDs. If you like 2 other backs, and wanted to get exposure to this game, it's really a great spot to do so, vikes are pass funnel, and the giants WRs don't break any banks. The last 3 games has been the James/Hodgins/Slayton show, and all see adequate playing time. They all are separated by 2 total targets over the last 3 weeks, and have aDOT/rs ranging from 6.2 to 7.8... I guess I'd argue James is the oddest man out, as I know some of that production was late game, irrelevant, heroics, but a case can be made for any. I'll probably do Hodgins>Slayton>James. I don't want bellinger. he sees a terrible shallow target rate, and doesn't get much of the share anyways.
Cook has consistently averaged around 20 opportunities a week, which you probably want higher from an every down back, but he has been efficient, has a decent ppr floor, is the fave, with a good aly push, and isn't necessarily the #1 priority in this offense for defenses. I have no issues going here either, I feel like he's under owned weekly. The Vikes use 3 WR sets probably more than anyone, as all 3 WRs have had multiple games where each was over 80% of snaps. I know Osborn just went ham, but prior to last week, he he was averaging just 4~ targets to theilens 7~, and I don't expect the Vikes to fall behind by 30 (or ever 21) this week, he also has the lowest aDOT/r of the team, by far. Since Hocks arrival, Jefferson is averaging 12+ targets a game, almost 2 RZ t/g, and a great aDOT/r of 11.1..... thats like a 9+-100+-0.5 floor, if you can play him, you do it. Thielen is priced appriorpriately with how he compares to Jefferson, and is a good salary/pivot option if you can't get to jefferson, but know that jeffersons upside is unmatched. It's crazy that this offense can support all these players, but Hockenson has had a solid 8 target average since joining the vikes, which is a 20% target share, and averaging 1 RZ target/g, Idk if I can go all in on him, with the other pieces in this game, but if you're mass entering and making Kelce a priority, dropping down salary to get hock, and go other Chiefs is definitely something to consider in a couple of the lineups.
NOS/CLV
Saints have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Browns have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Kamara has a great ALY push.
Chubb has a good ALY push.
Saints TTR is 19th.
Browns TTR is 15th.
Pace of play is 13th overall, 7th in MS. OURank is 10th (last) in MS.
- Injuries - NOS - On D, LB Werner (84%), LB Baun (23%), are out. Notable S/CBs Maye (99%),Lattimore (92%), Williams (47%) are Q. On O, no WRs Landry/Olave, RBs Ingram/Washington, TE Trauntman is Q. On OL, C Ruiz is out.
- CLV - On D, DE Clowney (62%) is out, LB Owusu (75%) is out for 2nd week, LB Takitaki (65%) is out for 3rd week.
- We already have super tough matchups for the Passing offense, in a game with a bad pace and the lowest O/U, and now you factor in insane gusts of wind, it's hard to like any deep threat option. The only thing that I can be convinced into is Shaheed, he played a season high last week, and now doesn't have Landry OR Olave for all of the game, the saints like to get the ball in his hands, and maybe he gets a rush attempt or two, or some short routes, plus he's extremely cheap... not going to necessarily go there, but that's the extent that I'd go. Actually, while rambling, if anyone is aware of any Taysom Hill rumors? I can see them game planning for him to start, and play a lot in these conditions... I think that's actually way smarter and may peak my interest. Kamara had 23 opportunities last week, and his priced stay the same, which was pointed out last week as being way to low. He is firmly in play.
Again I don't really want the passing options here, they're more expensive than the saints, and are in the same shitty conditions/matchup. Chubb had his highest snap game of the season!!!!!!!!!! at 70% last week, finally cracking that number. I'm upset he didn't have a target, and it's why he's scary to roster, why not take barkley who has the ability to match his total yards/tds, but also have safety in that he may get 3+ catches (which chubb would need atleast 30 extra rushing yards to even match...). I think he's still a good option, just know there's risk.
BUF/CHI
Bills have a great P/RB matchup.
Bears have a bad P/RB matchup.
Allen has a great ASR matchup.
Fields has the worst ASR matchup, Montgomery has a meh ALY push.
Bills TTR is 4th.
Bears TTR is 17th.
Pace of play is 7th overall, 4th in MS. OURank is 6th.
- Injuries - BUF - On D, DE Basham (39%) is out, DTs Oliver(61%)/Phillips(46%) are Q. On OL, C Morse is out.
- CHI - On D, CB Johnson (97%). LB Sanborn (76%) are out, S Jackson (94%) is out for 2nd week, CB Vildor (79%) is out for 3rd week. On O, WR St. Brown is out, Mooney still out, and Claypool is D. On OL, C/T Whitehair/Jenkins are D, both are their best rated lineman.
- Man did I want to attack this game prior to the start of the week. The weather concerns me, both of these guys (especially fields) do enough with their feet, and will be low owned, that I can see a reason to take them in a lineup or two in GPPs, but not sure I will. In the last 3 weeks, singletary AT BEST is in a 60-40 split and is seeing an average of 14~ opportunities a game, he is cheap enough and should see a higher end of his average given the conditions, but Allen can easily vulture him, and he has seen over 2 targets just once since week 9. without a TD, he's a dud imo. The bears secondary is in shambles... I want to exploit it, and stack allen + pass catchers, but I'll restrict myself... will I take a stab at it? yes, but I won't go overboard at all. In general, McKenzie is the shorter route runner on this team that can be successful regardless of the situation, he's the cheapest of the 3, and has seen targets over the last 3~ similar to Gabe (and more if you include his game 4 weeks ago).
I could see Fields getting 20+ carries/scrambling for his life with his possible OLine problems, and weather conditions.... 100+ rushing yards and a TD, makes him as good as the RB1s, with possibly some passing upside...I think he can remain on your player pool. The WRs here are min priced practically, and have no competition, but they spread it out last week, and it was on limited targets, I don't think I can click any.
SEA/KCC
Seahawks have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Chiefs have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Geno has a bad ASR matchup, Walker has a meh ALY push.
Mahomes has a good ASR matchup, Pacheco has a great ALY push.
Seahawks TTR is 12th.
Chiefs TTR is 1st.
Pace of play is 4th overall, 2nd in MS. OURank is 1st in MS,
- Injuries - SEA - On D, S Neal (100%) is out, S Jones (52%) is out for 4th week. DTs Woods (40%)/Mone (36%) are out for 2nd week. On O, no WR Lockett, RBs Walker/Dallas are Q, WR Goodwin is Q, TE Fant is Q.
- KCC - On D, DT Saunders (38%) is D. On O, TE Fortson is out, still no RB/WR Helaire/Hardman.
- Another stackable game that's outdoors but one of the least affected by wind. We have a great pace/OU, and great DVOA matchups. We have to take a wait and see approach for SEA, as they have a ton of Q's. Having said that, if Walker is active, and no limitations, he seems to cheap. Metcalf is in a smash spot, the WRs on semi competent teams with actual WR1/2s (not HOU/LAR, but DEN/LAC/CIN/JAC, have LIT this team up. Metcalf will be a priority for me, as well as a super cheap goodwin, who would be in line to see like 80-90%+ snaps if he goes. Lockett has about 8 targets a game that need to get dispersed, and the majority are going to Metcalf/Goodwin. I know fant is the target guy at TE, but he has a shallow aDOT/r, they play 3 TEs, and I don't feel comfortable ever clicking any of them, so pass.
McKinnon saw 62% of snaps last week, and turned it into a huge game... he's no longer in the 4K and is just shy of 6K... KC has not played with a 1+ possession lead in what feels like forever (for them at least), so I don't want to forget about Pacheco, especially if the field is. Juju is the WR1 on one of the best passing teams in the league, and he's under 6K. The last 3 weeks he's had a 24% target share, with a 1 RZ T/g, he can definitely be played. MVS is the deep shot guy, but can't seem to get it, I'd have a touch of him at best, the rest, pass. I'll never talk you off Kelce, no TE has his ceiling, and this is a tourney, but boy is he getting pricey!
CIN/NEP
Bengals have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Pats have a meh P/RB matchup.
Burrow has a meh ASR matchup.
Bengals TTR is T-6th.
Pats TTR is T-13th.
Pace of play is 9th overall, 6th in MS. OURank is 5th in MS.
- Injuries - CIN - On D, DE Hubbard (81%) is out, 2 Q CBs/1 DT. On O, no TE Hurst.
- NEP - On D, S Mills (75%) is out for 4th week. On O, WR Parker is out, RB Harris is Q.
- Mixon is definitely a "safe" option, but he has a tough matchup, and has yet to hit his snap count prior to bye/his injury, as Perine has been more involved. He can definitely get there, and still has a PPR floor, but I don't want it. Since returning Chase has been a beast, in the last 3 weeks, he has a 36% target share, and averaging 12/g, with almost 3 RZ targets/g, even if you take out his Wk 14 game w/o both the other WRs, he still have had 21 targets in 2 games, and we know he's a slate breaker, it's possible he goesl ower owned than the studs around him too due to the matchup, I'll keep him in my pool. Wilcox played over 90% of snaps last week without Hurst, he had just 3 targets and a TD, but even 6+ points is good at that price range, with potential of a TD, I think he's a good punt option.
I like Rhamondre, but I will say even with Harris out last week, he didn't play his massive amount of snaps, has a looming injury, and is the most expensive he's been all year, I'll have some of him, but I think its smarter to be underweight. If Thornton is in, he led the team last week in snaps (with no parker, and with meyers playing), he didn't do much, but I'll take that opportunitiy all day, especially when you are min priced, I have the same thoughts on Agholor, but would like him more if Meyers is out. Passing at TE.
DET/CAR
Lions have a good P/RB matchup.
Panthers have a good P/RB matchup.
Goff has the best ASR matchup.
Lions TTR is 5th.
Panthers TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 8th overall, 5th in MS. OURank is 4th in MS.
- Injuries - DET - On D, S Elliott (91%) is out,
- CAR - Nothing really
- We have a game with a good MS Pace, a good OU, and good DVOA matchups. We aren't playing Jamaal and his 0 target, and I suck if I don't get TDs player, we aren't playing the RB3 Jackson, I keep falling for the trap, but Swift issssss cheap, and on 40% of snaps last week he had 17 opportunities, 9 of which were targets, which is huge. In 3 of his last 4, he's had atleast 6 targets, never lower than 4, with a TD, he's a great play at 5K range. It's still the brown than chark than everyone else show until furhter notice. Brown is a PPR beat, and gets a ton of RZ looks, he can be played every week. I will say chark is sooo damn cheap, he gets less opportunities, but since beingback he has a nice aDOT/r of 11.6, and Goff has the best ASR rate of the week, he can definitely hit a HR and i'll take a stab. No to TEs for me.
Hubbard plays a lot more when panthers are playing from behind, while I think that'll be the case, he still only had 7 opportunities last week, despite playing 60%+ of snaps, and there's also a scenario where its a close game, passing on both, despite the cheap price tag. Moore/Marshall is where I'd go, with Darnold they both have aDOT/rs over 10 (moore's is huge at 18.1), and see a combined 40% target share. I expect them to play from behind, and this may be the best matchup he/they've had for him.
ATL/BAL
Falcons have a meh P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Ravens have a great P/RB matchup.
Ridder has a bad ASR matchup, Algeier has a good ALY push.
Lamar? has a good ASR matchup, Dobbins? has a good ALY push.
Falcons TTR is 20th (last).
Ravens TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is 15th overall, 9th in MS. OURank is T-8th in MS.
- Injuries - ATL - On O, no RB Huntley.
- BAL - On D, no DT Campbell (63%), no CB Peters (92%). On O, no Lamar/WR Duvernay.
- Umm... I may love Algeier way to much, not only has he been getting more, he's been more efficient than patterson since his return, there's no Huntley to take a bit away, he already had a good ALY push rating, and now BAL doesn't have a massive run stopper in Campbell. Nobody will be on him, and he's 5.2K. We've seen Huntley fail to move the ball, there return specialist is out, I just think it sets up well for them. London had a 42% target share with ridder, 11 total targets, if he really is just going to lock in, 4.8K is cheap for that, I don't hate it, no CB Peters either.
Robinson has a 25% target share with Huntley, I don't hate it, but it doesn't excite me as much, as the volume is low, and his aDOT/r is low, but if you want to go here, he is cheap, and this is the falcons, . I know Andrews has been terrible of late, but he also has a 25% target share with Huntley, a better aDOT/r of 8.6 (great for TEs), and he's the cheapest he's been all year.... I still want to like him. Both these guys get a tiny boost without duvernay too.
4 PMs/Saturday Slate Cont.
WAS/SFO
Comms have a bad P/RB matchup.
49ers have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Robinson has a bad ALY push.
Comms TTR is 18th.
49ers TTR is T-6th.
Pace of play is 16th (last) overall, 10th (last) in MS. OURank is 7th in MS.
- Injuries - WAS - On D, 2 notable Q's, CB/S St-Juste (90%)/Curl (100%).
- SFO - On D, DTs Ridgeway (39%)/Givens (48%) are out for 3rd week, notable Q's, CB C.Ward (91%), DE Hyder (37%). On O, no RB Mitchell, RB Mason is Q. No WR Samuel.
- Tough matchup for the WAS backfield, I'll probably pass here. IF you think Gibson can get 5+ targets, and maybe sneak a TD, go for it, I won't stop you, but I won't do it. McLaurin has a scary 30% target share since Heinicke became the starter in week 7, with a good aDOT/r of 9.2, we know they'll need to pass, and I don't think anyone will be on him, he's in my pool. I'll say Dotson has 80% snaps past 2 weeks, and saw an average of 7.5 targets, he's 3.9K, I actually think he can be sneaky too. Pass at TE.
CMC played 89% of snaps last week his most as a 49er, and was probably on pace to do so week 14 too, he has the biggest PPR floor on the slate for a RB, with rushing upside, and his backup has a lingering hammy, he may get 30+ opportunities. In 3 games with Purdy, Aiyuk seems like the deep threat, but he is a bit to expensive for my blood, as the pace sucks, and with 1.5 games without samuel, he's averaging just 5 targets/g. You can make a case for jennings, because he's cheap, and saw 84% of snaps last week without deebo, and he had 5 targets, don't hate it, don't love it. I'm not chasing Kittles performance, but this was a game with no deebo, he plays a ton of snaps, he had a good TE aDOT/r of 8.3, I get why, but CMC is probably what I focus on here.
PHI/DAL
Eagles have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Minshew has a bad ASR matchup.
Pollard? has a great ALY push.
Eagles TTR is T-10th.
Cowboys TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 2nd overall, 1st in MS. OURank is 3rd in MS.
- Injuries - PHI - On D, no CB Johnson (92%)/DE Quinn (54%) for 4th week. On O, no QB Hurts.
- DAL - On D, no DE Williams (27%), LB Vander Esch (79%) are out, DT Hankings (35%) is out for 2nd week, CB Brown (90%) is out for 3rd week, notables CB Diggs (97%), LB Parson (80%) are Q. On OL, T Steele is out for 2nd week.
- Idk how I want to approach this game, and I need to make a decision soon. It's one of 2 dome games with these weather problems. We have a super cheap minshew, vs a super cheap D in DAL (that has had plenty of spike weeks). Does Minshew hurt the value of Brown/Smith, probably a bit, does Goedert returning do so too, yeah probably, Will sanders get vultured from Minshew, he shouldn't. They were already one of the heavier run% play teams in the league, and I kind of prefer Sanders as a pivot to this offense that people think they can get cheap with Minshew + Catcher(s). I'll have a share/limited shares of it, but I'll grab some leverage with sanders in a couple too.
Pollard steal leads in snaps, is more efficient, and has a safer PPR floor/upside. I prefer him to Zeke. I won't talk anyone completely off lamb, but he's pricey, in a tough matchup, and has a lower volume floor than the guys around him. If I take a WR, I'd rathe go to Gallup/Brown. Schultz is an Ok option, again tough matchup, he's range-y, but he has a decent aDOT/r at 7, he sees RZ work, and has been an every down TE practically past couple weeks when Ferguson has been out (he's Q).
