Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
KCC/NEP
Chiefs have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Patriots have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Mahomes has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Pacheco? has a meh run potential.
Zappe has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Zeke? has a good run potential.
Chiefs TTR is 6th (good).
Pats TTR is 20th (last/bad).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- Injuries - KCC - On D, LB Bolton (86%) is Q. S Cook (79%) is out for 2nd week. On O, no WRs Hardman/Ross, no RB Pacheco, and T Smith is out for 3rd week.
- NEP - On O, RB Stevenson is out. WRs Thornton/JuJu/Parker are all Q.
Mckinnon is a no go, he is a touch more expensive than helaire, yet saw less carries AND targets than him last week. I still think Helaire is an ok option at 5K, he had 15 opps (4 targets) so he has some safety, and with a TD he can easily 3X+ his salary... not sure if I want him, but just an observation. Rice is coming off not only a season high of snaps at 85%, but that is also the most by any WR on this team all year.... we have someone FINALLY. In his last 3 weeks he has a massive 29% target share, BUT his aDOT does stink at 3.41.... either way, on PPR sites, that kind of target share gives him a super solid floor, with good upside (he does have over 7.5 yards of YAC). MVS is the only other playeer in that timeframe with a 10%+ target share (10%), but its accompanied by a massive 18.1 aDOT... he concerns me because Toney is getting healthier/seeing more time, which is directly lowering his snap counts... but as a HR hitter in a lineup where mass entering, I get it. In this same time of the Rice explosion, Kelce is maintaing a 22% target share with a great TE aDOT of 11.59, he has been in the teens in all 3 of those games, probably a catch short of the 100 yard bonus, and without scoring a TD... while 15~ points may be a floor for him, I know a 30 bomber is coming, and I'd rather be ahead of it than behind.
I tried to tell everyone... when Stevenson got hurt after a 27% snap count, Zeke finished with 22 opps (5 targets) on 69% of snaps... the following week (last week), he upped it up to 91% of snaps, and 30! opps (8! targets)... idc who you are playing, if you're getting that kind of production under 6K (even under 7K) you may be an instant click... if Pats keep it within 2 possesions, I don't think he gets scripted out. These WRs are all Q minus Douglas... so it's hard for me to be able to give concrete information... I'll tell you one thing.. they are all cheap, they should be in a positive passing script, and Zappe has been able to maintain really good aDOTs with his WRs. The WR1 Wk 13 had a 38% target share/15.78 aDOT (parker), while the WR2 was still fine at 12.5%/14 aDOT (juju). Wk 14, the WR1 had a 23% target share/14 aDOT (juju), and the WR2 had a 19%/9,8 aDOT.... these are really good metrics for guys close to floor price..... IMO the WR1 will be douglas, with maybe Parker... and I want a couple shares of each across a few lineups. I can't like every piece of this offense, but I need to see what other punt range options are like because Henry has a solid 10.71 aDOT with Zappe, and a 16.5% target share, those are fine numbers for 3K~ range, but I'm not sold just yet.
NYG/NOS
Giants have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Saints have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
DeVito has a bad pass potential. Barkley has a bad run potential.
Carr has a great pressure rate situation. Kamara has a great run potential.
Giants TTR is 18th (bad).
Saints TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is T-7th (bad)
- Injuries - NYG - On D, DT Lawrence (70%) is Q. On O, TE Waller is Q. T Neal is doubtful, and G Pugh is Q.
- NOS - On D, DE Roach (37%) is out for 2nd week, S Maye (100%) out for 3rd week, CB Lattimore (95%+) is out for 4th week. On O, WR/RB Olave/Williams are Q. RB Miller is out.
In a pretty neutral script, DeVito only had 21 pass attempts... while I don't really like that, he has now shown rushing upside in 2 of his 4 starts, and the script should be better from a passing perspective... at 5K, I get why he isn't a bad play (he has already 3.5/4.5x'd this in 2 of his starts)... not sure if I'd go here just yet, but something of note. Barkley is one of the workhorse/snap share guys that are few and far between now... He is coming off a week of 24 opps (4 targets) and actually doesn't have a single game under 3 targets. He offers safety with ceiling potential. In DeVitos 4 straight, 4 WRs have target shares between 10.5 and 20%, 3 of which have aDOTs between 6 and 8.93...I say that because I think you can make an argument for most of them (or the opposite), something to keep in mind but all target shares probably get slightly sapped if Waller is in. From a tourney standpoint, I'll say Hyatt has the biggest aDOT lead by a mile with 18.75, he'd be my dart throw. Pass at TE barring a Waller activation.
I have some worry with Kamara because he is 8.6K (his highest for the year), which is also a touch below CMC, yet he has seen his snaps drop in 4 straight (while Williams has increased), and this is even with Taysom out last week... he has only 3x'd+ this once in the last 5 weeks, and Taysom does return (and shaheed), I see much more concern/red flags, I'll fade him this week. Despite playing hurt, and not even leading the WR core in snap count, Olave has a really good 25% target share, with a really good 15 aDOT... he has the potential for 100+ 1+ every week and the matchup is nice... if you think DeVito can keep it semi competitive, I like him a lot. The one reason I'd be slightly underweight Olave is because Shaheed is 4.3K, and he unfortunately got hurt not much later after M. Thomas got hurt... BUT he had one complete game without him 4 weeks back where he played 69% of snaps and ended with a 22.5% target share/10.44 aDOT, at 4.3K, this combo is steal your babies candy nice. I don't want to pay 5.5K on Taysom, but I won't fault you if you do...passing elsewhere.
NYJ/MIA
Jets have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Dolphins have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Z. Wilson has a bad pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential. Hall has a meh run potential.
Mostert/Achane has a good run potential.
Jets TTR is 19th (bad).
Dolphins TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 10th. O/U Rank is 5th (bad).
- Injuries - NYJ - On O, C Tippman/T Mitchell are Q, T Warren is doubtful.
- MIA - On O, S Elliott (94%) is out, 2nd week w/o LB Baker (87%), 3rd week w/o LB Phillips (71%). S/LB/CB Holland (94%)/Van Ginkel (65%)/Howard (94%) are all Q. On O, WR Hill/RB Achane are Q. T Armstead is Q, T/G Hunt/Williams are out.
There is only 2.5 options on NYJ... Wilson, who they barely changed his price coming of a 14 target game.... In Zachs 10 starts, he has an insane 34% target share/10.85 aDOT, that can easily generate 10+-100+, ohhh... and that price they barely changed is still under 6K, that's fucking nuts, Oh and his numbers were even better in Zachs first game back post benching (40%/11.57). I have no issues going here, but I would like a healthier MIA O team come sunday to feel more comfortable. Hall is the other main option... he consistently plays over 60% of snaps, and has an insane PPR floor for a RB, it may arguably be better than Kamara, and you're getting him at a discount. In the last 4 weeks he's averaged 8 targets/g, never fewer than 6.... again, I have no issues going here. Conklin is the 0.5 piece, he has a 15% target share/decent 7.23 aDOT, at 3.1K, he's been consistently 2-3xing it, but I don't think you have to go here.
We have to take a wait and see approach here....MIA O looks much different without Hill, and Achane had an injury pop up, and the Oline is getting banged up,.... Hill seems to expensive even if he is active, idk if I want any part of it --- but I get the idea of using his extremely low ownershi/slate breaking potential and going for it ---- and if he is out, I think the only person I would fall in love with, even in a perceived tough matchup, is Waddle. This is strictly from a volume perspective, I won't play a QB vs NYJ, and I hate the carousel with Mostert/Achane, but with no threat of Hill, and the splitting time, they seem a bit to expensive over 7K.
CHI/CLV
Bears have a bad P/RB matchup.
Browns have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Fields has a bad pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential.
Flacco has a great pressure rate situation. Ford has a meh run potential.
Bears TTR is 16th (meh).
Browns TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 9th. O/U Rank is T-7th (bad).
- Injuries - CHI - On D, DE Ngakoue (72%+) is out, and S Brisker (94%) is Q. On O, WR Moore is Q.
- CLV - On D, S McLeod (49%+) is out for 4th week, S Thornhill (93%) is out for 2nd week, DE Okoronkwo (56%)/S Delpit (95%) are out. LB/CB/DT Walker (64%)/Ward (83%)/Elliott(40%) are all Q. On O, C Pocic is out.
Am I crazy for loving Moore yet again? The Browns are LITTERED with injuries in defense, and with Fields, Moore as a great 29.5% target share (38% since Fields return), with an 11.11 aDOT, he has more than 3x'd this in all 5 of Fields last 5 starts, plus I love moore that he is in a perceived tough matchup, and has an ankle injury concern (despite logging a full practice friday), I'm going for it. I guess I'd throw in Mooney as a cheap salary saver/punt option in a lineup or two when mass entering, for the seam reasons as moore, he has an aDOT that is similar, but with a target share of just 12%. Kmet is to expensive for me, he has some ppr safety with a 20% target share, but I don't care for his 5.09 aDOT, that is actually 2.5 since Fields return from injury, gross. Foreman was the leadback last week, but he is the head to a 3 back committee WITH a QB that can vulture TDs... I know he is just 5K but he has a low PPR floor, and without a TD, he hasn't 2x'd this salary once, pass.
I know the bears defense looks improved, and I think it has, but in the last 6 games they've held Bryce Young/Josh Dobbs in check (and Goff once), but they also gave up 30/24/31 to Herbert/Carr/Goff(once), and I have a sneaky feeling CLV isn't going to be able to let up. In Flaccos 2 starts, he's attempted 45 AND 44 pass attempts... and I get it was a positive script vs the rams, but last week the Browns actually led by 1 to 2 possessions ALL GAME...... that volume is GREAT for PPR formats. In Flaccos 2 games, Ford is averaging 15 opps (4.5 targets), I think he offers some floor safety at 5.5K, so I don't think he has to be off your player pool, but idk how much I'll have him, Hunt weirdly doesn't have PPR upside, passing. Cooper played just 32% of snaps 2 weeks ago due to injury, and STILL in the 2 games with Flacco he has a 22.5% target share, with a 10.68 aDOT --- it was 32.5% last week, I think he is a really good play. Moore has a 21.5% target share with a massive 18,56 aDOT, which is totally new for him this season, now a lot of that target share is buffed up due to Coopers injury, but I still think he is a fine play. I obviously still prefer Cooper much more. Njoku is averaging 7 targets/g with Flacco, so I get it, but his aDOT (despite 2 deep TDs), isn't great at 6.93 when you consider he is 4.7K... I won't talk anyone off of him if you like him, but I'll be underweight.
ATL/CAR
Falcons have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Panthers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Ridder has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Bi. Robinson has a good run potential.
Hubbard has a bad run potential.
Falcons TTR is T-12th (meh).
Panthers TTR is 17th (bad).
Pace of play is T-1st (good). O/U Rank is 10th (bad/last).
- Injuries - ATL - On D, DE Street (31%) is out, DT Onyemata (64%) is Q to return after a 1 week hiatus. On O, T McGary is out, and T Matthews (left last weeks game)/C Dalman/G Lindstrom are Q.
- CAR - On D, LB/S Gross-Matos (53%)/Woods (87%) are Q. On O, TEs Hurst/Thomas are out.
We have a wet/windy game here. with teams that either A) prefer to run, or B) have the worst QB in the league this year... I want 0 of the passing offense, and this clock should continue to run.
The one glaring spot in this game is the ATL backfield. Bijan is coming off a 78% snap guy (3rd straight increase since the BYE), he is averaging 6 targets/g in those 3, never fewer than 5... now I know I've been overweight him the past few weeks... but in tournaments, I think they is an ownership conversation to be had, as I don't see how he isn't in the top 3 most owned RBs of the slate, and when it comes to truly running downfield in sloppy conditions, I would not be shocked to see Allgeier get more involved, and/or get some RZ work... which could hurt a touch of Bijans projections. I don't think I can fully fade him, but I will be under the field, and to further hedge, I'll take a share or 2 of allgeier in some lineups at 4.4K. I obviously think London/Pitts are still relatively cheap, but to pay off you may need the TD in this one, so I'll pass.
Hubbard is coming off a season high 78% of snaps (is it just me, or were there actually a lot of backs seeing the field more in recent weeks --- good) In this game he saw 25 opps (2 targets), last week he also had 25 opps.... I always say this, but if you're projected over 20 opps, you shouldn't be below 6K... I know the PPR floor hasn't fully been there, but I think this game is at worst dink and dunk material and most likely plod your way down the field, I'm not sure what exposure I'll have but I'll make sure to include him. I want nobody when it comes to passing, but I will note, Tremble is the floor price, and has 3 of his TE teammates out (only sullivan while be with him, and he doesn't get targets) --- I'm not saying I like him, but he is a salary saving one-off where you're hoping for 3~ targets and a goal line TD.
TBB/GBP
Bucs have a great P/RB matchup.
Packers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Baker has a good pass potential
Love has a good pressure rate situation, and pass potential. A. Jones??? has a bad run potential.
Bucs TTR is T-12th (meh).
Packs TTR is 7th.
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U Rank is 4th (meh).
- Injuries - TBB - On D, DE Green (25%+) is out for 4th week, DE Gholston (25%), CB Davis (96%) are out, S/DT Neal (64%+)/Vea (62%+) are both doubtful, and LB/CB White (99%)/Dean (78%) are Q. On O, WR Godwin is a GTD.
- GBP - On D, S/CB Savage (85%)/Alexander (95%) are Q, as well as CB Stokes. On O, WR Watson is doubtful, RBs Jones/Dillon are Q, and WR Wicks is Q.
This packers D is quietly getting healthier with the possible return of 2 of their CBs/1 LB, as well as a S/LB coming back 2 weeks ago (Stokes/Alexander, Walker, Savage/Campbell), so while the matchup looks great for TBB, I do think it is a touch overinflated. Having said that, R. White has been a floor upper teens ppr FP back for since week 7, not many backs consistently play over 80%+ of snaps, he offers a safe PPR floor, with 24+ potential opps... he always seems to have a bad run potential/tough matchup too, and it doesn't stop him, and technically this time he doesn't.... Idk what exposure I'll have, but he should be in your pool. I don't really want to spend up for Evans, but if Godwin sits, he obviously gets a higher target floor, and he has been elite, I'll probably full fade though. And of course, if no Godwin, Palmer at practically floor price is a salary relief/one-off option. Otton always pops up as a good play, he is cheap, he plays 100% of snaps pretty much, and he runs a route per dropback 80% of the time, good for 3rd best among TEs, while baker unfortunately doesn't look his way enough... I still like him a lot, and obviously love him if no Godwin. Also his TE aDOT is ok at 6.58 on the season, but it's been trending upwards past few weeks.
The packers passing offense is in a smash spot, and the convo is about ownership. I don't think I can fade it... we a) can do it without breaking the bank (as they are all cheap options), b) are in a matchup vs the pass funnel D of TBB PLUS the injuries on that side are piling up fast, and c) the pieces floors all rise as Watson is doubtful, and wicks is Q.... you got to love it. Lets start in the backfield, again we do not want this part of the offense, but if both backs are out, taylor is obviously a salary saver at 4.3K, if jones is out, I still don't want dillon, but if dillon is out, I can see Jones giving us some PPR upside, and would be a hedge to the popular passing offense... I wouldn't go overboard at all, just something to consider. Weeks 1-3, and 14 did not include Watson... in those games, Reed grades out a touch better, and he is a touch cheaper, but it's negligible, so if you wanted doubs over reed, that's fine with me... I am most likely taking the 3 GBP player stacks so I may include both, or we could look at Wicks (although Q), but I actually have some interest in Toure..... he has a big 18.42 aDOT/9% target share in those 4 games, and that held true last week (after the first 3 game sample size) as he led in aDOT at 14, and upped his target share to 10.5%, he's floor price, and I'll pair him with Doubs or Reed in some lineups, imo he is a must click if Wicks is out too. I'm most likely off Kraft --- he had just a 10.5% target share in the game last week, but really it is because his popularity is going to be huge, and Otton is my most preferred bring back (and a good pivot off his ownership imo).
HOU/TEN
Texans have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Titans have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Stroud??? has a great pass potential. Singletary/Pierce have bad run potential.
Levis has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Texans TTR is 14th (meh).
Titans TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is T-12th. O/U Rank is 6th (bad).
- Injuries - HOU - On D, CB Thomas (78%) is out for 3rd week, DE Anderson (67%)/LB Cashman (80%+) are out. On O, QB Stroud is doubtful, WR Dell is out, WR Collins is Q (but wasn't seen at Fri practice), WR Brown is Q. T Fant is Q.
- TEN - On D, DT Simmons (81%)/CB Fulton (90%+) are out for 2nd week, DT Peko (39%) is out, DE Autry (67%)/LB Gibbens (65%)/S Wallace (87%) are all Q. On O, WR Ikhine is Q.
Another game with a laundry list of injuries. In general, HOU players are inflated due to recent success, and on top of that, that was with QB breakout Stroud who most likely won't play. Having said that, you could see some value pieces popping up if Collins is out, possibly Brown, and definitely Dell.... It would leave us with a 4.2K Woods, and a 3.2K Metchie, in that scenario, I think they can be played. I don't want any of the backfield committee, and Schultz is priced with McBride/Njoku/etc, eff that.
IF Spears can find the endzone I think he can be a really good play --- but the uncertainty of that, with the probable outcome of playing with a lead, is keeping me off of him, but his day will come. On the flip side, King Henry, while having TD equity, doesn't have the greatest PPR floor, there is technically a script that would cause concern, and he barely 3x'd this salary in the last 3 weeks while getting double digit TDs in each, unless you see him getting 2 TDs again, I'd be off. In the 7 games with Levis, Hopkins has a really good 27.5% target share, and a really good 15.8 aDOT, his price did not budge after last weeks performance (monday night effect), and somehow these numbers are a touch better in the 3 games that Burks was also on the field... I like him. If you really want to go for a HR shot/punt play, Burks/Ikhine/Moore all have huge aDOTs, but all their target shares are under 10%, so feel free guessing. I think Chig is an fine punt, he is 2.9K, and his a 16.5% target share/7.49 aDOT (another reason to fade Kraft).
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
I want to point out that all 3 of these 4PM games have the best O/U's on the slate, and should be the primary game stacking/mini game stacking candidates --- but if you have conviction of a game bucking the trend, taking a stand in tourneys can create really good opportunities/leverage.
SFO/ARI
49ers have a great P/RB matchup.
Cardinals have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Purdy has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. CMC has a great run potential.
Murray has a bad pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential. Conner has a good run potential.
49ers TTR is 1st (great).
Cards TTR is 15th (meh).
Pace of play is 16th (meh/last). O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
- Injuries - SFO - On D, S Hufanga (89%) out for 4th week, DE Armstead (66%) is out for 2nd week, DT Hargrave (64%)/LB Burks (31%) are out. LB Greenlaw (89%)/CB Ward (88%) are Q. On O, no RB Mitchell.
- ARI - On D, LB/DT White (95%)/Fotu (41%) are out for 3rd week, CB Price may be returning. LB Barnes (53%) is Q. On O, WRs Brown/Wilson ,and TE Swaim are Q.
CMC/Purdy/Aiyuk/Deebo have all seen price increases, so it is much harder to go Purdy plus pick 2 strategy, but the matchup is still dynamite, and they continue to have the top team total of the slate week in and week out... so it is hard to completely avoid rostering them. CMC last week got to 20 points on 0 TDs, and 1 catch.... that is what we call a fucking insane floor... if you want to start with him locked in and figure it out elsewhere, I won't blame you... it doesn't hurt that his direct backup is out too... I know Deebo has been getting the shine/glory, but there is no way I am playing him at a higher price over Aiyuk, when in same, fully healthy, games, he has had a better target share of 25% (to 20%), AND aDOT of 14.2 (to 7.33).... Aiyuk >>> Deebo 9/10 times imo. Kittle is the other really interesting option.... he is actually the only one that saw his price drop a ton, he comes into the game with the "toughest perceived" matchup, but in the last 5 weeks he quietly has a 22.5% target share, with a good TE aDOT of 9.14, we've seen him have big ceiling games, and not only do those reasons above have me thinking his ownership will be supressed, but a ton of game stacks will be including McBride as the bring back (whether right or wrong) --- imo he goes unnoticed, and for those reasons, I will happily include him in my player pool.
Conner is a workhorse, and he is below 5.7K, hit 76% of snaps last week, and had 27 opps (2 targets), but that was also the sole game ARI lead throughout/won, the prior 3 weeks they either played from behind/lost, and he had as low as 11 opps, and as high as 17 opps, while going scoreless in all 3, remember Kyler is a vulture candidate too, so I probably will be very underweight at best. Hollywood got hurt and only played half the game last week, but still, in Kylers 4 games he has a 19% target share with a really good 15.09 aDOT, and he is just 5.1K --- if he suits up, I like it... we've seen WR1s have some decent games vs this D recently, I really like him as a pivot off McBride (and allows for easier path to Kittle). Dortch didn't suit up in Kylers first start, but in his last 3, he has a 20% target share with a 9,2 aDOT, at 4.1K I think he is fine to dart throw, not sure I will. Moore is an extreme dart throw/hr hitter, prior to Kyler he was a line of scrimmage guy, with KYler, he has had a sick 20.33 aDOT, but just a 6% target share... at best I'd salary save/punt him in a lineup if mass entering. McBride is a big time PPR floor guy, with a big 26% target share, but his aDOT is just 5.2, and I know he is going to be super popualr, I'd rather be contrarian here, as it wouldn't shock me to see brown beat him, or others priced around him (kittle being one).
WAS/LAR
Commanders have a good P/RB matchup.
Rams have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Stafford has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Commanders TTR is 9th.
Rams TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Injuries - WAS - On D, 4th week w/o DE Smith-Williams (37%), and LB Davis (86%) is out. On O, RB Br. Robinson is out.
- LAR - On D, DT Donald (81%) is Q. On O, WR Atwell is Q, T Havenstein is Q.
This game with be 1 of 2 (GBP the other) where teams will target the passing offenses that aren't from DAL!/BUF!, and SFO!/ARI~, not sure I can avoid this one, but just making awareness for leverage/making yourself different purposes.
We didn't have a complete game without Br. Robinson, but in a game where he got hurt early, AND WAS got blown out, Gibson had 15 opps (5 targets)... he is just 5.2K with PPR safety and a probable path to at least 20 opps, he should be included in your player pool. At WR, this core has played 9 full games together .... they finally made Samuel priced similar to Dotson, I still think he grades out better, but if it's a popularity convo, I kind of lean Dotson a bit more, but in any fashion, I still rather have McLaurin the most... he is not that much more expensive, has the best target share, and the best aDOT of the 3 (by a lot) - 11.11 compared to 6.93/8.26... I'll take my chances with him the most, aside from bigger game stacks/onslaughts. Thomas has been very disappointing of late... but again this team continually plays in passing scripts (they are the #1 pass play% team in the league), I'm not sure if we need punt/salary relief here, as his metrics are similar to Samuel/Dotson, and it is easier to fit in the WR to afford a TE move to the bottom or top, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him have an optimal game.
I'm conflicted here... it took Kyren 1 game to then return back to 90%+ snap beast, and he averaged 27.5 opps (4.5 targets) in those 2 games.... that's smashing... they are faves with the #2 implied team total, and I mentioned above how I think most will a) see his price and fade, because b) WAS is typically attack through the air, and Kupp/Nacua with Stafford looks just as appealing... Or I am dead wrong, and he goes 30%+ owned but I know people can't afford everyone from this game/SFO, so getting the calls/fades right will most likely make or break you. Speaking of Kupp/Nacua, they are practically the same player, same target shares/same aDOTs... Nacua is $400 cheaper, but that's negligble... play who you like the most or go for a bigger team/game stack. I will note... with Hunter Long in, Higbees snap% is around 70%~, with him out, it is mid 90%s, he is a cheap way to get exposure to this offense, and with Atwell unlikely to suit up, he could see a touch more volume.
DAL/BUF
Cowboys have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a bad P/RB matchup.
Dak has a good pass potential.
Allen has a meh pressure rate situation.
Cowboys TTR is 4th (good).
Bills TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is 14th. O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Injuries - DAL - On D, DT Hankins (41%) is out, S/CB Hooker (86%)/Gilmore (94%) are Q. On O, WR Tolbert is Q.
- BUF - On D, DE Epenesa (41%)/S Hyde (91%+) are both out.
I don't have concerns here, I just want to be underweight the field, because I love other matchups... and the 14th overall pace, despite the #1 O/U makes me think being under the field in % is an advantage in the long run.... but! I obviously still want to target this game for one-offs/mini game stacks if need be...
I forgot exactly, but the DAL coach said it's not realistic for Pollard to get X amount of touches or whatever... well coaches lie (hello McVay...), Pollard has averaged about 70%+ of snaps since the bye, and Dowdle has crossed 10 opps just twice in that time frame, both in blowouts.... so I'll believe it when I see it. Pollard is coming off b2b 24 opp games (6 targets/g avg)... he is a good floor/ceiling player as any and imo a fine play. In 7 games since the bye, Lamb as one of the league bests 32.5% target share, with a good 11.2 aDOT... that is WR1 overall upside, but he is also priced like that (WR2 overall)... if you can make it work, and absolutely want him in, I get it... not sure how my roster construction will go just yet. Cooks feels to expensive for just a 12.5% target share, and while the others are floor priced they split time as the WR3, and eat into eachothers playing time..I think one can hit, but is it Gallup or Tolbert? The passing volume could be lower than usual in this one --- or BUF plays with a lead, and it is massive... I'll fade for now. Ferguson is just to expensive for a 16.5% target share/5.98 aDOT, pass.
Cooks is back to being used as a receiver, my problem is he still is not seeing 50% of snaps once in the last 4 games. coupled with the fact he is over 6K... while he has 20+ opp upside, he also has below 15 opp downside... I think he is fine, but there are backs better just above him, and value plays just below him, passing. Idk if it's the return of Knox or not, but Diggs went semi back to his ways with a big 30.5% target share, although with just a 7,.82 aDOT... that resembles his early season form which can be scary. While Gab fell to a pathetic 5.5% target share, he was still utilized for HR bombs, evidenced by his massive 28.5 aDOT (Believe Allen didn't see him on a wide open TD too that could have added to those numbers)... in tourneys, there is always an argument for him. Out on Shakir with the return of Knox. I want to say Kincaid feels a bit to expensive to me, but the return of Knox did NOT hurt him... as he had a 22% target share (very good for a TE), his aDOT took a hit at 4.75, and maybe he feels a touch expensive, but if you have conviction that this game hits/goes over that O/U, then he should be a part of it...
