Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
NOS@TBB
Saints have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucs have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Shough has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Neal? has a bad rush potential.
Baker has a good pass potential.
Saints TTR is 20th (meh).
Bucs TTR is T-3rd (good).
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 7th (meh).
- Shough is to cheap, he is coming off b2b games with atleast 38 pass attempts, and 6 carries, he more than 4x'd this price. In those 2 games, Olave had a 26% target share/11.65 aDOT, that stack doesn't break the bank, but you can get ultra cheap and pair him with Vele, who has had a 20% target sharre/9.7 aDOT, and is in the 3k range, yes please --- he also leads the WR group in RZ targets (just 2, but still). If mass entering/attacking this stack, I don't mind choosing juwan here and there, but waiting to see the other TE opportunities out there. Kamara is out again, Neal is avg'ing 80% of snaps these L2, and 5 targets/g, he also looks valuable --- don't want to go overboard but there is a ton of options here.
Bucky is back, on just 52% of snaps last week, he hit 19 opps (2 targets), those numbers should only rise game to game, I do think he feels expensive, but I may be of the mindset to get ahead of it before you are behind it. Egbuka is the cheapest he has been since Wk3, all aboard. Godwin played his first real complete game last week, and finished with a 20%/8.8 stat line, which I guess is fine for 5K range, but Egbuka grades out so well, he had a 32%/10.5 aDOT, and has the best floor/ceiling combo. With 2+ premium WRs back on this team, it looks like Otton is back to empty-less routes, pass.
WAS@MIN
Commanders have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Vikings have a great P/RB matchup.
Mariota? has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
McCarthy? has a meh pressure rate situation.
Commanders TTR is 14th.
Vikings TTR is T-11th.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 8th (meh).
- I didn't really go into this week wanting to play Daniels, but even when he returned in week 5, and 9 after missing time, he was still utilizing his legs --- and in that he is priced at 6K which may be the lowest he has been since like his 2nd career game, and his big compliment of receiving options are all healthy (which hasn't happened since Wk2), I think he is a really good tourney option vs a perceived tough matchup. Ertz feels a bit expensive to me, but I will say he has scored in 4 of the 5 games they've played together, I'll mainly pair him with Deebo/Mclaurin though, as they are within 1K price of Ertz and definitely have higher ceilings.
Weeks 9-12 JJ wasn't to good, as he totaled 4 TDs in those 4 games, but had 7 turnovers --- however this may be the best matchup on paper, he is cheap, and his pairing options are cheapest they've been all year too. I think Addison in 4K range is semi ludicrous a 20%/15.9 stat line is pretty good for that, but I think I want to get to JJ, as he has had a 31.5%/11.4 stat line with 4 RZ targets to boot and has the potential for slate breaking upside. Jones has had a good PPR floor in his full starts, but we haven't seen the boom upside, and I lean the passing options more --- but if avoiding this game for the most part, he isn't a bad idea for a cheap one-off/salary saver.
PIT@BAL
Steelers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Ravens have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Rodgers has a great pressure rate situation.
Lamar has a bad pass potential.
Steelers TTR is 18th (meh).
Ravens TTR is 7th (good).
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is T-5th.
- Maybe BAL can set the pace on this team? Idk, but the pass volume isn't always there for this team (rodgers has had 4 games with under 23 pass attempts --- 2 of which were his L2). He hasn't hit double digit FPs since 4 weeks ago, and he hasn't 4x'd+ this cheap salary since 6 weeks ago. Again, I know BAL could set the pace here, but there is also a lot of room for failure, and I'll be fading mostly. Metcalf is cheap, and if we get the higher end of pass attempts, he is a steal, but his almost 26% target share L4 is really just an average of 7 targets/g, but in those L4, he has just 1 rz target, as they either run it, or leans towards there plethora of TEs --- speaking of which, how could we trust as well? If you get a correct script, and he happens to get a TD, Gainwell can hit big time value, maybe I'd one-off him similar to Jones above as a cheap salary saver if avoiding this game mostly.
Rinse and repeat my words, but Henry has such low ppr safety, but he barely gets to even 3x'ing this salary with a 2 TD game, he really needs 100+ 2+ to feel very good about the decision, and I don't know if I want that. Hopkins is out when batemen is in, and when bateman is in he has shown just a 9%~ target share in the 3 games with Lamar back, he is in the 3K range, so maybe you can be happy with a HR hit, but I would maybe one-off that once if mass entering, idk.... Flowers has a 22%/9.7 statline in those games, which is just alright, but the matchup is good, and I get it if you want to go there. TEs have 10 RZ targets compared to the WRs 7, and Likely/Andrews are #2 and 3 in target share in lamars 5 game return. I don't mind andrews, but why not go to the cheaper likely who has a touch better metrics in both categories (18.5/8.9 vs 17.3/8.1), at 3.1K I like him as a one-off.
MIA@NYJ
Dolphins have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Jets have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Tua has a good pressure rate situation. Achane has a good rush potential.
Taylor has a bad pressure rate situation. Hall has a meh rush potential.
Dolphins TTR is T-11th.
Jets TTR is T-15th (meh).
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is T-9th (meh).
- How can we not like Achane? Yes he had a pretty uncharacteristic 1 target game last week, but prior he had hit at least 5 targets in 7 straight games, and even in the 1 target game, he almost 3x'd this high salary --- We've seen Bijan hit almost 200 total yards vs this team, Henderson almost 100, but the 3 backs in the L3 all have hit an avg of 2 TDs each --- I'm all aboard. MIA has been winning, and in 4 of there L5 games, where they won them, Tua has been capped at 26 pass attempts, and as low as 20 total ---- so yes, in Wallers return last week, Waddle hit at 30% target share, but that might mean just 6 targets, and keep in mind, Achane isn't getting just 1 target again --- I am off the pass catchers unfortunately, because I don't think I can trust the NYJ to play with a lead/keep up the pace for MIA to keep the action quick.
In Taylors L2, AD Mitchell has an insane 33% target share/18.7 aDOT ---- that is ALPHA numbers, the matchup is tough, but at 4.6K, he has to be a top option in tourneys. You can go Metchie as direct leverage, as they are same priced, but he clearly has worse metrics comapred to AD (26%/5.2). The 2 of them have all 5 of Taylors RZ targets too. This is MIA D, and Hall should hit 20~ opps with a ppr floor, but he is climbing up the 6K range, and MIA has been better of late vs RBs in their wns, I'll be underweight since I want more of AD too.
IND@JAC
Colts have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jags have a meh P/RB matchup.
Jones has a great pressure rate situation. Taylor has a good rush potential.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation.
Colts TTR is 6th (good).
Jags TTR is 9th (good).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- going to be a downpour all day in this game, Taylor probably needs to be better than 100+ 2+ (similar to Henry~ to an extent) for you to feel happy, and I don't think I Want that, as he has been kind of average vs tougher D's recently. and I want no part in passing options in a downpour.
In closely contested games, this is still ETN's backfield, and while I have concerns in a non fulltime workhorse role, for a guy in the 6K range, I don't mind having a couple shares of him when mass entering. Passing on the cheap WR options this week.
SEA@ATL
Seahawks have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Falcons have a bad P/RB matchup.
Darnold has a good pressure rate situation. Walker/Charb have a great rush potential.
Cousins has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Bijan has a meh rush potential.
Seahawks TTR is T-3rd (good).
Falcons TTR is 19th (meh).
Pace of play is T-9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-5th.
- Charb has no PPR floor, but more RZ work, Walker has hit 18+ opps just once since week 4 and has less RZ work, can't really trust either despite a good matchup. Taking last weeks blowout win out, JSN has had a 35.5% target share/12.75 aDOT, he has one of the best ceilings on a weekly basis, and has been the WR1 pretty much all year --- no problems going there if you can afford him. Shaheed/Kupp are cheap, both have aDOTs over 10 (surprisingly for Kupp), the target share doesn't get you excited (10%/16.5%) but they are cheap, and worthy of consideration in tourneys.
L2 games with Cousins Bijan has had a 30 opp game (7 targets) in a loss, and a 16 opp game (2 targets) in a win, I obviously see a neutral to positive pass script scenario being more likely, and imo makes him viable. Londons been out with Cousins --- other WRs are cheap, but no WR has hit a 16% target share with Cousins, I don't really want to be apart of that. Pitts however has a 25.5% target share with london-less cousins, with a good TE aDOT of 7.3, he should be on your list.
TEN@CLV
Titans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Browns have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Ward has a meh pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Pollard/Spears have a bad rush potential.
Sanders has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Judkins has a meh rush potential.
Titans TTR is 22nd (bad/last).
Browns TTR is T-15th (meh).
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U Rank is 11th (bad/last).
- I'm usually off both of these guys, I don't really want pollard but Spears has hit at least 5 targets in 3 straight, and with a TD, he definitely 3x+'s this salary, and a snow game is usually harder on defenders, so I can see the case. While Wards attempts have bee high, he spreads the ball around a lot, and all of the pass options that have been in and out of the lineup L3 (except Ridley) are all in, so concentrated volume is unlikely, I'm passing on these cheapies.
We will find a game for Sanders, but this isn't it imo --- I do say that he will have a game in him because all three of his WRs have aDOTs at or higher than 16.75 (on a combined 35% target share), but they are expected to lead, and he plays with a really good defense at his disposal, so his attempts have been very limited in his L2 (on top of the wildcat RZ we have seen), so I'll pass. I'll note Fannin has a 27% target share (2.7 aDOT), and if an ok option on PPR sites. This is another game where Judkins should see 20+ rush attempts, and if sampson is out, it should give a bump to his PPR floor, I have interest in him in a positive rush script matchup --- he 2.5x'd this salary last week, despite missing out on the 100 yard bonus, and any TD, with 100+ 1+ he will get closer to 4x'ing.
CIN@BUF
Bengals have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bills have a great P/RB matchup.
Burrow has a meh pass potential. Brown has a great rush potential.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Bengals TTR is 10th (good).
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Chase had 14 targets (32% share) in his first game with burrow --- I don't see that slowing down, I know Higgins return, but Tinsley's 9 targets should shift in that direction --- I think you could play either, but I lean Chase more if I can afford, the rest pass. The other viable option is Brown, he had 22 opps last week, but 7 targets with Burrow, and this was in a blowout win. We saw how good his end of season stretch was last year, and he is a candidate for 25+ (5+) floors for rest of year imo.
Kincaid will try to play, even last week without Kincaid, 6 different non RBs saw targets, and non hit 18% share, and that gets more muddled with Kincaid in too, I just can't trust these cheap pass catchers. The decision is to we want to play Allen or Cook, Allen has the highest ceiling among any player, and Cook is coming off a 35 opp game (3 targets).
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
DEN@LVR
Broncos have a good P/RB matchup.
Raiders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Harvey has a good rush potential.
Geno? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Jeanty has a bad rush potential.
Broncos TTR is 8th (good).
Raiders TTR is 21st (bad).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is T-9th (meh).
- Harvey has been the starter for the L2 weeks, but is avg'g just 15.5 opps (3.5 targets/g), I want to think that is more likely his floor, and he still is in the 5K range, so I do think he is viable --- especially if he continues his goal line work, but I understand if he doesn't get you up at night. I like Sutton as a player/homer, and I guess he is actually kind of cheap for 5K range, but his 18.5% target/9 aDOT don't look great when you look at the other players. Same could be said for Franklin, I loved him about 3+ weeks ago, but his snaps/targets have dropped significantly, while Bryants has done the exact inverse --- his metrics are 17%/9.5, which is similar to Sutton right? but he is 2K cheaper. Bryant hit a season hit 70% of snaps last week, while Franklin hit a season low of 52%. While my mind is saying not to believe it just yet, and I guess nboody will have franklin at 5K+ this week, I just don't see why we should take that risk. Long way of saying, I'll have some shares of bryant, and maybe a dot of sutton/franklin. Engram is worth noting just because he gets RZ targets, has a target share of 18.5%, and is very cheap, I probably won't have, but I get it.
The matchup is tough, but geno might have to throw the ball 40+ times ---- and he is dirt cheap, and 3x"d this salary over his L3 vs LAC/CLV/DAL --- I don't hate it. Tucker is in the 4K range, he plays almost 100% of snaps, I know the matchup is tough, but he should easily hit 8+ targets, and that is valuable for that price range. Bowers feel expensive, but another candidate for high volume that I can understand. Jeanty is coming off B2B2B games of atleast 8 targets, and last week he played a season high 96% of snaps --- that was in a semi blowout loss/pass script too --- I think he is script proof, and should hit 24+ opps. Tucker>Jeanty>Bowers are my favorite based off roster limitations/salary.
CHI@GBP
Bears have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Packers have a good P/RB matchup.
Caleb has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Swift/Monangai have a good rush potential.
Love has a great pass potential. Jacobs has a good rush potential.
Bears TTR is T-15th (meh).
Packers TTR is T-3rd (good).
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is 4th.
- Both of these RBs hit 20+ opps last week, but they've really lost their PPR floors, and the matchup is tougher, I think I am off both regretfully. The pass catchers all ships have risen, as Odunze is out for the first time this year, the guy had a 23% target share over his L3 (which similarly match his years number) that will now be dispersed to the rest of the gang. I wanted to say Burden is probably my favorite because he is in the 3K range, despite Zacchaeus being floor priced --- but I didn't realize Moore is in the 4K range, he was already the leader in RZ targets L3, and while I like them all for value, he is my one I lean for fave play.
In 5 of 11 games this year, Jacobs has peaked at 1 target --- last week being most recently. He didn't hit 60% of snaps last week, and maybe they don't want to throw to him out of the backfield with the knee injury still rehabbing, but I think I am off of him again this week until he is a touch cheaper, or sees increase in snaps/volume. I want to play Love, I think he is a candidate for 4x'ing this salary this week, the problem is who does his production funnel through? The last 4 weeks since Tucker has been out, so has Reed, and Golden for the most part.... Watson has had a 25.5% target share, with a big time 18 aDOT, he is to cheap for those metrics. So is Wicks in 3K range with a 20.5% target share/10 aDOT. Doubs is on my no fly zone --- he has had the worst aDOT and target share of the bunch, and is right there for most expensive. The biggest problem of all, is that Reed, and maybe even Golden are both expected to be back. I think Watson retains his role, but Wicks is going to see a massive downgrade, and I can see Doubs too. Imo I am mostly going with Watson, and a little bit of reed, with a touch of the other guys at best.
LAR@ARI
Rams have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Cards have a bad P/RB matchup.
Stafford has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Kyren~ has a great rush potential.
Brissett has a bad pass potential. Benson?? has a bad rush potential.
Rams TTR is 2nd (great).
Cards TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Kyren has no PPR floor, and hasn't had over 14 carries since 5 weeks ago, he needs mutli TDs to even 3x, it is getting ugly. We are not playing a QB who isn't mobile at 7K~ range, and while he can do it, we would need 4+ TDs to pay that off. But that doesn't mean we can't try to get his pass catchers. Puka has had a 32% target share/7 aDOT over his L3, and I know Adams has been a RZ king/5TDs in that span, but it isn't like Puka hasn't had his chances (3 RZ targets himself), I can see a reason for either, but I lean Puka. I'll note Parkinson is just 3.1K -- while his 15% target share is alright, he has had 4 RZ targets, and it only takes 1 TD to hit value in a game with a top O/U.
In 2 games w/o MHJ, Mi. Wilson had an incredible 32.4% target share/11.9 aDOT --- BUT we also now have Dortch (14.7%) and very likely Weavr (5.9%) out as well opening up another 20% of Brissetts targets ---- Wilson and McBrides floor/ceiling combos are huge, but Wilson is just so cheap --- and if you can figure out the WR2 this week Baccellia/Brooks/Sherfield, they are all floor priced as well. I even thnik Carter at 4.4K could be an ok tourney option if mass entering, he is avg'ing over 5 targets/g in his L3, while leading the backfield in snaps, despite Bam getting more carries.
