Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
TBB/ATL
Bucs have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Falcons have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. R. White has a bad run potential.
Bi. Robinson has a meh run potential.
Bucs TTR is T-16th (meh).
Falcons TTR is T-9th.
Pace of play is T-2nd. O/U Rank is 8th (bad).
- Injuries - TBB - Relatively healthy.
- ATL - On D, CB Terrell (100%)/LB Landman (83%+) are Q, On O, T McGary (started every game) is Q, but I think that trends worse.
R. Whites price has ballooned to his season high of 6.8K, and this may be one of the first weeks I do not recommend playing him, as the matchup is tough, and I kind of want to attack this game through the air. --- but I do want to say he has consistently been top 5~ in snap count for most weeks this year at the RB position, so if you have conviction, and want to play him at lower ownership, be my guest. The underlying metrics look good, but people will see how ATL has fared vs WRs, that they may actually keep ownership down... having said that, I think Baker can find success through the air, ESPECIAILLY if CB Terrell (dealing with a concussion atm) is out. Evans is really having a great season, and since the BYE, he has had a 26% target share with a great aDOT of 15.15, that combo means spike weeks can happen regularly, only case I'd have against him is maybe he feels a bit to pricey, but I think the leverage you get in ownership massively outweighs that/his potential. I want to play Godwin, I have him in redrafts too, he has a decent 20% target share with just a 8.49 aDOT, he just looks a bit expensive at 6K, I'd use him as a pivot off Evans in just a couple of lineups... but the price looks bad when you also consider Palmers stats that really don't look tooo much worse, as he has just a 14% target share, but with a bigger 10.97 aDOT, and he sits at 3.2K. And then we have Otton, who runs a route on 80% of dropbacks (T-2nd in the NFL among TEs). plays every snap, and has a great looking matchup on paper. My issues is his 0 target game last week, his 12.5% target share since the week 4 bye, and an aDOT of 6.8... he is just $100 cheaper than Palmer, who in tourneys may be smarter, in most lineups, to pivot too IF Otton is going to be super popular.
I will give 1 team props on beating TBB through the ground and it was PHI week 3. Last week, both LBs Devin White and Lavonte David were out, and the back up LB SirVocea Dennis was out too (so was CB Dean)... now this isn't to say Bijan can't get there at 6.5K, as he is coming off a 75% snap count game, has now had 3 straight games with over 20 opportunities, and in the 2 with Ridder, he has not had fewer than 5 targets, so I get it, i'll just be underweight at best. Look, I know i know i know the pass volume usually is not there with this team, but if TBB can find success/hit big plays through the air themselves, the pace of this game is good, we are in a dome, and we've seen Ridder with some spike weeks in pass attempts, if that's the case, London is a STEAL at 4.7K -- as he has a 23.5% target share and 10.54 aDOT with Ridder, and is really the only WR out there, as he consistently plays 80%+ snaps --- I'll add since his return his numbers are greater with 27%/14.08 aDOT, yes please. I'll note just Jefferson at WR as he was 2nd at 53%, and has a big aDOT for HR hits... but idk if I go there, If I mention London, I have to mention the only real other option, and that is Pitts. he is cheaper at 3.7K, but the question you have to ask, is do I lose my punt value of a cheaper TE, where we don't have that issue at WR/London, or is it worth paying up for one of the studs/is he the stud this week? With Ridder he has a 20% target share, and probably the best TE aDOT of 11.35, since his return, those numbers also increase to 22.5%/12.9, I'll be playing 1 of these 2 at the least in most lineups. Joonu is a no go for me, he has a terrible aDOT since ridders return, nad a much worse target share as well.
DET/CHI
Lions have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Bears have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation, and great pass potential.
Fields has a meh pressure rate situation.
Lions TTR is 6th.
Bears TTR is 14th (meh).
Pace of play is 10th. O/U Rank is T-4th.
- Injuries - DET - On D, DT McNeill (69%) is out. On O, C Ragnow is Q (didn't return back to game last week - Knee).
- CHI - relatively healthy.
Not only is the RB matchup bad, but we have a 2 headed monster where if DET has a lead, Gibbs is to expensive for his usage, and the opposite can be said when playing from behind... so if you really like one of them, please paint the appropriate picture on how the game will play out. Having said that, I have a possible bigger problem. And that's the health of C Ragnow. Prior to his injury, the Lions were 11 carries for 74 yards, 6.7 ypc, after that, they were 14 carries for 33 yards, 2.35 ypc. Most likely I am full fading the rush attack. Since Week 8 this WR core as really been St. Brown/Reynolds -- Jam. Williams ------ Raymond. Raymond is a no go, and despite the bigger playing time, reynolds doesn't do it for me either, both have target sares under 10%, and aDOTs below 8.5. The prices aren't different between the 3 bottom guys, so again, if dart throwing, give me Jam. Williams and his big 15 aDOT for HR hits (not saying I go here, but only way I'd have it). Look I love St. Brown, in his last 5 games he has a really good target share of 28%, but with an ok aDOT of 8.41, my issue is there is always a scenario where DETs passing volume is down, and with that potential, it is hard clicking his name as the 4th highest priced WR on the main slate. I'm not saying you can't, but if you do, you have to be hoping for a positive passing script and/or a shootout --- I'll most likely be underweight. LaPorta is priced as the TE2, but really there is no different in salary between him/Hock/Kittle, but he is deserving of it, with a 22.5% target share/7.59 aDOT, again my issue is volume, and you can argue the underlying metrics for Pitts, or the 2 of kittle/hockenson may be a smidge better, plus I'd rather sell high on the guy who just hit his highest salary on the year.
I know this is a risky take, as Foreman is coming back, and this can arguably be a 3-headed monster, but Roshcon is coming off a 74% snap count game, where he had 5 targets in a neutral game script, at a minimum he should be the 3rd down back. I'm not sure if what kind of salary relief we need yet, and who else is available below 5K, but he will be on my list for now. In Fields 2 games back, Moore has an insane 40.5% target share, with a ok aDOT of 8.64 --- in his 7 games with Fields it goes to 29%/11.32 aDOT, 6.5K still seems like a really good price. Mooney is almost floor priced with an 80% snap potential, 12% target share, and 12.75 aDOT, it wouldn't shock me to see him hit value. I think Kmet is fine, I just think if he doesn't get a TD, you're going to be upset with his single digit performance, as his aDOT is not that good at 5.15, and it's actually been worse since Fields return --- 1.09, ouch.
IND/CIN
Colts have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Bengals have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Minshew has a meh pressure rate situation. Moss has a great run potential.
Mixon has a good run potential.
Colts TTR is T-9th.
Bengals TTR is 12th (meh).
Pace of play is T-5th. O/U Rank is T-4th (meh).
- Injuries - IND - On D, LB Speed (57% - 92%+ last 2 weeks) is Q. On O, no RB Taylor, and T Smith is Q.
- CIN - On D, CB Taylor-Britt (86%+) is out for 3rd week.
Moss played 94% of snaps last week and had 22 opps (3 targets), and while he didn't have the greatest production, the Colts were stopped to a FG/Turnover within the 10 4 times... he very easily could have gone 2+ TDs on the day, and the matchup isn't as tough as the TEN run D.... he SHOULD NOT be under 6K, fingers crossed the poor performance keeps his exposure down. In Minshews 8 full games, Pittman has a great 32.5% target share, with a meh 7.64 aDOT, but with minshew already having 5 games with 40+ pass attempts, you can almost guarantee Pittman is in line for 10+ targets, I'll never talk anyone off of him. Downs plays the least of the 3, has a 20% target share, but his aDOT is the worst at 7 (and has been trending lower)... he still feels kind of expensive at 4.9K... I'd rather London at that point. Pierce FINALLY did it... the guy has a monster 15.42 aDOT with Minshew, plays practically every snap (quietly), while he has just a 12.5% target share, he is still kind of close to floor price, I have no issues dart throwing him for salary relief in a couple lineups if needed, just know he may be a bit more popular now than the 0.3% last week. Despite being floor price, the TEs are all used, and don't see enough individually.
Mixon is somehow tied for the lowest salary he has been all year, just a touch over 6K at 6.1K... He is way to cheap for his matchup, while he had 2 very different games with Browning (a 10 opp/2 target game, and a 26 opp/7 target game) he still is a 70% snap count player throughout the entire year, I usually comment on workhorses should not be below 6K, it is not much different for him at 6.1K... Chase has a 29% target share but with a meh aDOT of 6.94 with Browning... and keep in mind Higgins missed 1 of those games. I obviously think chase has ceiling potential, but I still will be slightly underweight at best. I don't think Boyd is a terrible play, as he has a 19% target share, but his aDOT at 4.5 is gross too and for a tourney, he doesn't do it for me. I think Higgins, coming back from both ankle/hammy injuries is the one I lean to most as he did lead the 3 in aDOT last week and I'm hoping the poor target share game keeps his ownership low for tourneys. Pass at TE, Hudson played the least among the 3 TEs (16%) yet had 4 targets, I don't trust any of them.
JAC/CLV
Jaguars have a bad P/RB matchup.
Browns have a bad P/RB matchup.
Beathard has a meh pass potential. Etienne has a bad run potential.
Flacco? has a bad pass potential. Ford? has a meh run potential.
Jaguars TTR is T-21st (bad).
Browns TTR is 18th (meh).
Pace of play is T-8th. O/U Rank is 11th (bad/last).
- Injuries - JAC - On D, CB Herndon (56%+) is Q, but may be returning CB Braswell. On O, QB Lawrence is Q, but shouldn't be playing, TE Strange is Q, WR Kirk is out. T Robinson out for 2nd week, T Little is Q.
- CLV - On D, S Thornhill (93%) is Q, S McLeod (49%+) is out for 3rd week. On O, WR Cooper is Q.
Somehow Lawrence may actually be playing? So maybe that slightly changes some things, but either way. Etienne is way to expensive for what he has been doing post-bye vs pre-bye. In his 4 games post the bye week, he has yet to exceed 66% of snaps (averaging around 62~%) and has surpassed 17 opps just once. Pre-bye he only had 1 of his 8 games under 17 opps, and averaged over 80%+ of snaps. While he still has arguably a good PPR floor, and maybe more than his avg post bye usage with beathard back there, I can't feel comfortable paying 7K with this trend/matchup. I feel like Ridley really is not needed here, while he can still do well, Zay Jones practically mirrored his production and he is MUCH cheaper at 3.7K, and while Washington was not bad himself either, he did have the lowest aDOT/Target share/snap count of the 3, and because of the cheap price tag of Zay, I don't see why Parker makes sense at 3K, just pay up if you want to go here. Do I think Engram can see good volume again? Yes, and his target share was the best last week at 23% --- he also saw his 2nd highest snap count of the season, and TE Strange could be out again.... but his aDOT was still so bad at 3.78, and he actually isn't that cheap at 4.8K, this spot is so important in DFS, I'd rather go down further in price at WR and grab Zay if I want a player here.
I'm kind of torn on ford, on one hand he seems cheap, and if DTR is the starter, he actually has targeted him a bunch, so the ppr floor/safety is there, he has recently played 70% of snaps too, but on the other hand, he splits RZ work with Hunt, he has some games where he barely gets to 50% of snaps, and like last week he only had 12 total opps. I think I will still keep him in my player pool, especially if its DTR, and if Beathard is in, it could create good opps/script for him, but idk if I will have a lot of him. I don't think I can play Cooper at that price with DTR in, in fact in his 3 games, Moore had the same target share as him, and both were over 10 aDOTs, and you can get Moore significantly cheaper. Njoku is a cheaper version of Engram, big target share, small aDOT... I would only play 1 of these 2 TEs if you think they play from a neutral to negative run script, prefer DTR for Njoku. I will obviously have a chunk of Moore if no Cooper/Flacco is in.
CAR/NOS
Panthers have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Saints have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Young has a bad pass potential. Hubbard has a meh run potential.
Winston? has a great pressure rate situation. Kamara has a great run potential.
Panthers TTR is 20th (bad).
Saints TTR is T-7th.
Pace of play is T-2nd. O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- Injuries - CAR - On D, DT Williams (47%) is out. On O, no TE Hurst/WR Shenault, and TEs Sullivan/Tremble are Q.
- NOS - On D, no DE Roach (37%+), 2nd week w/o S Maye (100%), 3rd week w/o CB Lattimore (95%+). On O, no RB Miller, no WR Thomas. TE Hill/WR Shaheed are Q but haven't practiced. QB/WR/TE Carr/Olave/Johnson are all Q but towards the playing side.
Hubbard grades out as a fine play, as his snap count wasn't reduced with the new coach (hitting 65%), and he did have 25 opps, my problem is the matchup, and the fact that he had 0 targets in a neutral to positive run script with the new head coach... I'll probably let others chase his TD reliant good games he has had recently. Chark saw a big drop in playing time last week, and he still finished with a better target share than Thielen.. I think both are unplayable, Thielen because he is to expensive for his new low target share/not the best aDOT, and Chark because there is way better punt option, and his playing time is taking a nose dive trend. Mingo however is just 3.5K, plays practically every snap, led last week with 25% target share AND in aDOT, 10.67, he is where I'd go. If Sullivan/Tremble are out again, I guess Thomas is a fine punt/salary saver option in a couple of tourney options.
Somehow Kamara was overlooked last week by others, and he came in and had 22 opps (8 targets), his WR missing group may still be remaining AND Taysom is trending towards not playing, who is a huge RZ/TD equity guy... oh and the matchup is even better than last week, yes please. Olave is another piece that can be played, while he feels a tad expensive, if Shaheed is out again, he had a great 27.5% target share with an insane 18.25 aDOT last week. Also if Shaheed is out, you could take a dart throw for Perry, he played a lot of snaps, and had a great aDOT of 19.33 too, but with just a 10% target share. Overall I don't want to go overboard on the passing options, as the back end of CAR has gotten healthier, and they are expected to be playing in a positive run script, but I do think they (especially olave) can be kept on your player pool. Pass at TE.
HOU/NYJ
Texans have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jets have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation. Singletary? has a bad run potential.
Rypien??? has a meh pass potential. Hall has a bad run potential.
Texans TTR is 13th (meh).
Jets TTR is T-21st (bad).
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 10th (bad).
- Injuries - HOU - On D, S Houston-Carson (100% prior 3 weeks) is out. On O, no WR Dell/TE Schultz, WR Brown is Q/didn't practice friday. 2nd week w/o T Howard, and possibly first week without T Fant (did not practice friday).
- NYJ - On O, RB Hall is Q. After returning last week from missing 5 games, G Schweitzer is out again.
HOU is back to the terrible committee backfield, none can be trusted, none even his 50% of snaps, and now Ogunbowale has even seen a bit of sharing time. Pass. Collins is priced as the 7th most expensive WR, that personally feels a bit too high for me, but without Dell, and possibly no Brown, AND no Schultz, he is also going to see an even higher target share than he already had as a WR1, so I don't have an issue if you want to go here. I have interest in Brown if active, as last week he really was the WR2 in playing time/targets when compared to Woods. He (woods) has already begun to lose playing time to Metchie, and is unplayable imo. Metchie will be my choice if Brown is out. Brevin Jordan played a season high 75% of snaps, and had an ok te ADOT of 7, with a 15.5% target share, I'm fine using him as a one-off punt, or in a game stack if we really want to target this game.
Hall is coming off his 2nd highest snap count of the season, and finished with 21 opps (8! targets), he hasn't seen fewer than 6 targets in his last 3 games, I think he is a fine tourney option, especially if a lot fade because he is a) a jet, and b) has an injury coming in. G. Wilson is the cheapest he has been all year, by a lot, and lets not forget that in Zachs last 4 full games, he never had fewer than 12 targets, he had an insane 34.5% target share, with a 11.15 aDOT in them.... I am all aboard the Garrett train in this one. Conklin always grades out as an ok option, as his aDOT isn't terrible, he is always cheap, and you can pencil him in for 4+ targets most of the time. IF he finds the endzone, it wouldn't shock me to see 15+ points which would 5x his salary, so I get it.
LAR/BAL
Rams have a bad P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a good P/RB matchup.
Stafford has a meh pass potential.
Lamar has a good pressure rate situation. Mitchell? has a great run potential.
Rams TTR is 19th (bad).
Ravens TTR is 3rd (good).
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is T-6th (meh).
- Injuries - LAR - On D, S Lake (38%+) may return from 2 week hiatus. LBs Young (86%)/Hoecht(85%) are both Q. On O, TE Higbee is doubtful.
- BAL - Relatively healthy, obviously no TE Andrews.
Kyren is already back to full workhorse, seeing 94% of snaps, and getting 26 opps (5 targets), you can argue only CMC should be priced higher, yet he is the RB4 (with being closer to the guys below him), while the matchup doesn't look great, he can never be crossed off for the rest of the year. In the 7 full games Kupp/Nacua have played with Stafford, they are practically identical players, both in the 28% target share column, and both in the 9 aDOTs.... they are only $300 i nprice, if you want one, go with who is projected to be lower owned. You can argue the absence of Higbee raises both of these floors too. Pass at TE.
BAL has scored over 30 points in 5 of their last 6 (the 6th was a 20 point win.). Because of this, I think you should at least be considering some players for one-off potential. Keaton Mitchell is priced under 5K, and has seen his snaps rise in 4 straight games, hitting a high of 46% last week (Edwards/Hill didn't even get to 30%), I know his TD equity isn't great for an offense with 3 backs + lamar, but he looks to have become the starting RB for the team with the 3rd best TT, and again, he is just 4.9K, he should be on your list. I like Likely, but in the 2 games without Andrews, he only has a 15% target share, and a really bad aDOT of 1.25... I have him in some redrafts, but I'm going to hold off on playing him just yet until some of those numbers improve. This feels weird to say, but OBJ has been the best post Andrews, tying Flowers for target share at 22.5%, but has the best aDOT of 17.92.... for tournaments you love to see that, but he is also cheap at 3.8K.... my ONLY fear is he did that while never breaking 35% of snaps, while Flowers/Bateman are over 90%/75% respectively, but maybe that's a good thing, because imagine if he is given a bigger snap role post bye...
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
MIN/LVR
Vikings have a good P/RB matchup.
Raiders have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Dobbs? has a good pressure rate situation, and pass potential.
O'Connell has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Jacobs has a bad run potential.
Vikings TTR is T-7th.
Raiders TTR is 15th (meh).
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is T-6th. (meh).
- Injuries - MIN - On D, 3rd week w/o LB Hicks (100%).
- LVR - On D, DE Crosby (97%+) is Q. On O, T Miller is out again.
I don't hate Mattison, but there are to many red flags for me to consider him. He obviously has been sapped of his usual playing time from earlier in the season, we've already seen both Dobbs and Chandler get rushing TDs in the past few weeks, and JJs return arguably drops all players recent target shares (which includes Mattison obvi). I'll pass this week. Hockenson had an insane 32.5% target share/8.28 aDOT with Dobbs and no JJ, while I want to be underweight, because he is priced as if he is in the same situation, I do think he can still get his even if his target share drops to low/middle 20%s, not sure where I stand just yet. Minny is still #4 in terms of pass play %, and while the last 4~ weeks have been slightly lower, it still remains one of the highest in the league, and Dobbs aDOT in those 4 games was actually slightly higher than Cousins in his 8. I say these things because JJ may not really slip in terms of production, and I want to be zagging while everyone is zigging on that kind of uncertainty... I'll have me some JJ. I'm not sure how they are playing the WR2, but earlier in the year, it was Addison who took the playing time hit, I will fade them for now until I have some more sample size.
In 3 of the 4 games with Pierce as the HC/O'Connel at QB, Jacobs has had at least 26 opps... that is massive, and in the 2 games they played from behind, he averaged 3.5 targets/g.... I have no issues if you want to go to Jacobs. In that same time frame, Adams has an insane 33.5% target share, with a 13.07 aDOT, that is arguably overall WR1 numbers yet he is priced as the WR8, he is my favorite play on this side, and I'll be sure to have him. Meyers feels to expensive at 5.7K, his 16% target share is ok, his aDOT of 9,74 could be better... I'd rather pass. If punting/salary saving option, I'd go tucker at 3K over renfrow at 3.1K, he plays slightly less, but has actually had a target share similar but a massive 17.91 aDOT compared to 3, he is a slightly worse version of Pierce. Pass at TE, there aDOTs suck, and the target share isn't to desirable.
SEA/SFO
Seahawks have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Geno has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Purdy has a great pass potential. CMC has a great run potential.
Seahawks TTR is T-16th (meh).
49ers TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 14th (meh). O/U Rank is T-1st (good).
- Injuries - SEA - On D, LB Clark (30%+) is out, DT Ja. Reed (69%) is Q. On O, RBs Charbonnet/Walker are both Q, and QB Geno is a GTD.
- SFO - On D, DT Armstead (66%) is out, S Hufanga (89%+) is out for 3rd week, On O, no TE Dwelley, no WR Ray-Ray, and RB Mitchell is doubtful. T Burford (100% of snaps), is doubtful.
We have to take a wait and see approach on SEA, which is tough, because of the 4PM timeslot, but if doing late swaps, you can get some serious leverage. If one of walker or charbonnet is out, the other is a volume based value play (especially Charbs, as he is cheaper). In 7 games post bye (whic his when JSN saw his consistent tick up in snaps), these WR numbers are as follows. Metcalf/Lockett/JSN --- 27%/22.5%/17% --- 13.15/10.82/6.88 aDOTs. I think we can leave JSN off as I'd like a WR3 priced over 4K to have a better aDOT/HR potential, and I don't really want Lockett just yet becuase I think the gap between him and Metcalf should be a smidge bigger, but I can understand why he looks cheap enough. I still prefer Metcalf to all of them, and I would only be doing it if Geno is confirmed, probably full fading if it's Lock. Pass at TE, you could talk me into Fant as a punt if Lock is in.
SFO played with a 2+ possession lead almost for the entirety of the second half, and CMC still played 88% of snaps, AND direct backup Mitchell is looking like he won't be suiting up. While he is expensive, he is almost a lock for 20+ points, so I won't talk you off of him. The great thing about SFO is they really have 4 studs (CMC/Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle), the problem is they are all pretty expensive relative to their positions, and not all 4 can go off on a given day, so you have to make sure you to pick right. I know everyone wants to lean to Deebo, but in the 7 games these guys have played together Aiyuk crushed him in targets (24% to 18%), and smashes him in aDOT, (14.53 to 7.35), and they are $100 difference in price... Give me Aiyuk 9/10 times. While Kittle is priced as the TE4 on this slate, he has a good 20% target share, with a good TE aDOT of 8.11.... he is very boom or busty, but in tourneys, you like that, plus you know he is almost an every down player with 2+ TD potential. Personally I don't love the price you pay for him, but I don't have issues with going there.
BUF/KCC
Bills have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chiefs have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
J. Cook has a great run potential.
Bills TTR is 5th.
Chiefs TTR is 2nd (good).
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is T-1st.
- Injuries - BUF - No new injuries ---- TE Knox is Q to return.
- KCC - On D, S Cook (79%+), LB Tranquill (69%+) are both out. On O, no RB Pacheco, no WR Hardman. T Smith is out.
The only problem with Cook is his playing time, as he hasn't hit 50% of snaps in 3 straight games. The positive? he is still heavily utilized, and coming off b2b games with 20+ opps (5.5 avg targets). He feels way to cheap at 6K, while in a plus DVOA matchup, and what feels like a 20 touch floor. Diggs is the most expensive WR, and hasn't even 3x'd this salary since week 5... pre Knox injury.... to add, in the last 2 weeks post change of OC, he has a 24.5% target share, and a 6.84 aDOT --- those are not WR1 overall numbers, Gab had a slightly worse target share of 15.5%, but a much bigger aDOT of 15.42, and probably grades out much better given the price differences. You can even expand them further to when Knox has been out, and in those 5 games, his numbers are identical to the last 2 weeks, 24.5% target share, and a 6.56 aDOT... Maybe IF knox is active and playing, I'll consider a return to form of his first 5 weeks of the season, where he had a 30% target share/11.06 aDOT... but I still will be underweight until i see it. Shakir shouldn't be thought about if Knox is in, I'm fine with punting in an environment that includes a top O/U of the slate, but I mostly want Gab. Davis, he continually leads in aDOT, we know he has HR/slate breaking potential, and he doesn't break the bank. Kincaid is to expensive ESPECIALLY if Knox plays, he is only 400 cheaper than Kittle, with a smaller (although still good) aDOT, and a worse target share, most likely full fading.
With Pacheco out, we've been told Helaire is next man up, and he is close to floor price at 4.2K.... kind of like Moss last week, although more of an unknown, it is hard not to just click this as a free square, and gives you the ability to pay up big time other places.... It really is a conversation about ownership%/leverage. Since the bye, Rice has a 24% target share, which is great, but it is accompanied by a terrible 2.96 aDOT.... he can get there in PPR formats at 5.4K, as somehow his price has dropped after b2b 8 reception games, but I also feel like he lacks big time upside. Skyy Moore is a worse version of Rice, pass. MVS/Watson is who I will be debating in tourneys, as they have the huge aDOTS, and see similar playing time. Kelces 21% target share since the bye seems weak for his standards, and he is definitely having a down year, but the 9,19 aDOT is still really good for TEs, coupled with his huge price over the #2 TE, I think he is an interesting tourney leverage play, as I expect low ownership.
DEN/LAC
Broncos have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Chargers have a great P/RB matchup.
Russ has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Jav. Williams has a good run potential.
Herbert has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Broncos TTR is T-9th.
Chargers TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is T-5th. O/U Rank is 3rd.
- Injuries - DEN - No new injuries --- On O, RB Perine is Q.
- LAC - On D, CB Leonard (100% last 2 weeks) is out, 3rd week w/o LB Bosa (57%+). On O, WR Palmer is still out.
Jav. Williams is coming off his 2 highest snap count games of the season, in one he had 24 opps (6 targets), the other 16 opps (3 targets), the first was a winning effot, the second a losing... I think he has a relatively safe floor for PPR formats, with potential of a workhorse game, so under 6K, it tells me he is valuable. As a bonus, there is a chance Perine is out too. While I think Sutton is a savage, and a big TD equity guy this season, I don't think Jeudy grades out that much worse than him, yet there priced 1.4K apart. Both have aDOTs with .75 of eachother, while Suttons target share is 24.5% to Jeudys 20%.... I do think either can be played in a plus matchup, and in what looks to be a passing script (based off vegas), but I lean more towards Jeudy. The Broncos played 3 TEs for the 4th time last week, and none are utilized enough, each have target shares under 8%, pass.
In a 6-0 game last week, Ekeler played a season low post injury of 57%, but still managed 17 opps (3 targets), although it was terrible in efficiency. I'm conflicted, because the spot looks welcoming, and his terrible performance this year could lead too lower ownership, AND he is the lowest priced he has been all year, plus we know he has 20+ opp potential, with possibly 40% of it being targets... however, maybe this downward trend in usage is real, and he really is just slower too... I'm leaning towards being slightly overweight, but I am worried about being burned. In 4 weeks out of 5 since the bye, the 3 WRs of LAC have been Allen/Johnston/Guyton. In that time, Allen has had a 33% target share, with an aDOT of 8.6... we just saw nico collins have an optimal game vs this defense, and you bring in a guy next who can break a slate... I have no issues going here. As for Guyton/Johnston, they both have similar 11% target shares, but Guytons aDOT has been better, and he is cheaper... I'll take Guyton > Johnston 9/10 times. I know how bad DEN looks against TEs, but they 2.5~ TEs weekly, and non have a target share that hits 9%... I'm passing, as they aren't even really punt price.
