DFS/Props Week 13 Discussion

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
"For those that don't remember, I'll try to get down general matchup information from a dfs/prop perspective as best as I can, but please jump in whether it is to add input, correct a mistake of mine, or if something is unclear. I'm sure all 3 are going to happen.

When reading the summaries I'll typically use great, good, meh, bad, those 4 terms are sectioned between ranked 32nd-25th, 24th-17th, 16th-9th, 8th-1st. Ie. Ekeler has a great RB matchup, because the opposing defense is ranked somewhere between 25th-32nd in DVOA vs the run (something like that).

Edit: I do sort pressure rate/asr, as well as line play/aly in top 1-5,6-10, and 23-27, 28-32, so you may see me say Great/Good, and Meh/Bad, 11-22 are not stated. My ranges (which may adjust) for Great/Good/Ignore/Meh/Bad TT's and O/U's will be this.
>24.5 >50
>23 >46.5
20-23 43-46.
<20 <43
<17 <40"

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As you can see from this, week 12/season numbers;

- WRs were used 30% of the time in the FLEX position, 60% RB, 10% TE --- season total is now 67%/24%/9%, WR/RB/TE.
- RB + Def stack were 30% of the time. --- season total is now 19% of the time.
- At least a QB Team Stack was used 90% of the time --- season total is now 95% of the time.
- QB Game stack was used 30% of the time. --- season total is now 43% of the time.
- QB + WR + RB Stack was never used. --- season total is now 8% of the time.
- DEF was paid up for twice, mid 70%, punted 10%. --- season total is now 23%/39%/38%, high/mid/low pricing on the season.

The cut/cash line for this weeks tourney was 148.76 --- (Wk2 138.30, Wk3 165.18, Wk4 145.84, Wk5 155.38, Wk6 143, Wk7 133.8, Wk8 148.44, Wk9 138.02, Wk10 153.96, Wk11 145.72),

This was by far my worst main slate to date, I've included a snippet of the cutline lineup. While I did well with my RBs (Stevenson/Taylor/Bijan/Henry), I missed on Kyren, despite me saying this " McVay (despite me not being shocked if he just flat out lied) has said he will be mindful of his snaps/workload this week." in the thread last week. He was just head and shoulders above the rest, and the next best RB was Pacheco, and I have a message with a friend group of mind around 3:20ish~ saying how mckinnon was inactive, and we really should consider putting in Pacheco as a swap in lineups, but never did. Both of these guys were around 20% ownership each.... and then my most expensive QB was mahomes, not hurts or allen, and I avoided the QBs in JAX/HOU, just complete misses despite feeling like I hit well. This image below has 4 players under double digits, one at 0, and cashed, I have a lineup with 1 player under double digits (7.3 in Watson), and it didn't cash... the Top end was too good.... onto Week 13...

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I sure hope we get good weather in DC, Miami/commanders could be a onslaught of points!! Gotta think waddle and hill going for 100+ vs that god awful commanders secondary, long as Washington offense can push them which I think they can. I’d be trying to get Tua in several lineups or in my case looking to play a high alt number!! Hill alt numbers just to high with not enough payout but waddle usually pays well went he goes over 100.

What’s going on with fish backfield? I heard all the excitement achane was coming back, which I was happy to hear cause I really liked him coming out of college but I dunno if he played at all? I know anothef rb emerged out of fish backfield while everyone was jumping back on achane (no clue who it was or what happening going forward?).

Obviously gonna need Howell amd the offense to push Miami pass game. Mcclarrion mostly been a disappointment considering overall the offense been prettt good, he been fine just not close to what ya want from a 1. I thought Dotson was gonna have monster year but that hasn’t really came to fruition. Robinson has mostly been really good. Samuel finally got involved last week. For the numbers Howell has put up it kinda strange Washington hasn’t really had a consistently trustworthy top option. Kinda like Logan Thomas here. Robinson rush+rec maybe. Mostly think I want Tua/waddle/hill with a alt wheel on waddle if his number low enough (I assume 60s).,
 
Have to see if Olave can clear concussion protocol this week, if so I think he goes for 100+ on lions. Gotta like both lions backs, bigger lean to gibbs rush+rec but I could prob go Montgomery rushing also. Saints have no problem moving the ball they just suck at turning the yards into points. Olave and Carr both for me if olave healthy I think he gets 100+ and Carr throws for 300+. Lions d isn’t very good at preventing red zone scores so maybe this the week saints turn the yards into points, In which case really would like gibbs.
 
Thursday Night/Showdown Slate

SEA/DAL


Seahawks have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a good P/RB matchup.
Geno has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Walker? has a meh run potential.
Dak has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Pollard has a good run potential.
Pace of play is 6th overall.

- Injuries - SEA - On O, RB Walker/WR Young are doubtful, TE Dissly/WR Eskridge are Q, and G Haynes is out.
- DAL - On O, TE Hendershot should be officially returning.

I know the direction these teams look to be going/playing this year, but the preseason line on this game was -3.5... I'm not sure I can justify a 6 point swing in Dallas' direction --- you can argue since preseason they actually have the only big player losses too in Diggs/Vander Esch.... anyways.... I obviously like seattle to stay within the number, and is part of the reason I will be more weighted on 4/5-2/1 SEA-DAL stacks for showdown, not all my weight, but definitely more than the field.

Walker should be out again, which leaves us with practically 2 weeks of Charb data... in a solo role, he has had 85/88% snap counts, getting an average of 19 opps (4.5 targets) a game. Somehow they just did not want to price him higher, but at 6.8K, I like it, and he may be in most of my lineups. I think all 3 WRs are priced fairly in the slate, so play who you can afford... since the bye week (and taking out week 7 when Metcalf didn't play) JSN has seen high 60 to low 70% of snaps, but obviously has the lowest metrics on both ends too (14.5% target share/7.77 aDOT), Lockett is next at 23%/11.13, then Metcalf 28.5%/13.36, and they're priced 5.2K/7.2K/9.6K... I obviously want Metcalf the most, as he has the bigger ceiling but we'll see how roster construction plays out. SEA plays 3 TE's, and in that same window, none have a target share exceeding 6%, none have an aDOT over 6.3....I guess if Dissly is out, I'd consider punting Parkinson at 800 if we need some salary relief... Fant is not much further away in price than Myers/Gallup --- Tolbert, so idk if I'll have any of him.

I have no issues if Pollard is part of your core.. I think he really is a 25+ touch potential guy in close games, and he has already had 6 games with at least 5 targets, and without diving into it atm, I'm sure at least 5 of those ended in blowouts... aka, his season numbers are grossly deflated. Dowdle is a no go for me, in his last close game he had 2 touches, under 20% of snaps, and even if he sees more playing time, like we thought he would after week 10/11, last week he had 4 touches, plus a 0 target floor, no ty. Kind of like Polllard, Lambs numbers seem slightly suppressed, probably not as much, since he still sees a lot of playing time, and they still were throwing semi late into games, but I'd argue on the season he is very slightly below the notch of Brown/Hill but obviously an alpha, so if you want him I won't talk you off. Cooks is far and away the #2 WR on this team, he is very yoyo like which is good for tournaments, as it means higher ceiling, but his last 5 PPR games were 14/2/32/7/17, he feels a touch expensive, but I'll still have him in lineups. I think gallup looks to have lost his hold on the WR3 spot, and is truly splitting time with Tolbert since the bye. Tolbert has a slightly better target share, better aDOT, and is a touch cheaper... Tolbert > Gallup in at least 9 of every 10 lineups for me. We know Ferguson has TD equity, but he also has a pretty bad floor, and if Hendershott is active too, I'll probably have none of him, otherwise I'll be just underweight. If mass entering and Hendershott is out, I can understand throwing a dart in a lineup or 2 on schoonmaker, otherwise pass. If you really want to get all the big dogs, and Hendershot is activated, he is floor price of $200, and played on 42%~ of snaps the first 3 weeks, so I'm fine with doing it in a lineup or 2 if mass entering as well.

Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate

IND/TEN


Colts have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Titans have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Minshew has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Taylor? has a meh run potential.
Levis has a meh pass potential. Henry has a good run potential.
Colts TTR is T-8th.
Titans TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is 5th (meh).

- Injuries - IND - On O, C Kelley is Q, and RB Taylor is out.
- TEN - On O, T Hubbard is out for 3rd week.

In practically 4 games without Taylor, Moss played about 85%~ of snaps, 24.75 opps/g (2.5 targets). He is so damn cheap, the question really is about ownership. He is obviously a cash game lock and move on... but if he really is going to be 40%+ owned, lets not forget the TEN run D is good, and 2.5 targets/g isn't the greatest PPR floor..... I'm fine with whatever approach you want to take, I get both sides of it.. just know he is guaranteed 20+ touches, I'm leaning to be much more underweight, as I can see the red flags/leverage to be had, but I'm definite more of a contrarian player. In Minshews 7 full games, Pittman has an incredible 31% target share, with a meh aDOT of 7.82, but PPR sites don't mind that.... he finally got priced over 7K, yet I think he is still a good play, and good for 10+ targets pretty easily, this is arguably the easiest matchup to date for Minshew too. I think Downs is fine to play, his aDOT thought is somehow worse than Pittmans (slightly), and his target share is 21%. I'll go right back to this, but Pierce has a huge aDOT of 13.97, with a meh target share of 12.5%, he will be a tournament steal one of these weeks, and this matchup could be it... I'll have him in a lineup or 2 if mass entering. The TEs are all in min priced, they all play, they all don't see enough targets, pass.

IF you see a scenario where TEN plays with a lead, I guess go ahead and play Henry... but his PPR numbers have dropped even further than the meh it already was, and he has an obvious path to be out snapped by Spears, if he goes TD-less, he will single digit you, 6.8K is too much for me. I'm not sure of other candidates under 5K at the moment, but I GUESS you can consider Spears as a direct pivot/leverage off Moss, but you may need 4+ catches and a TD to feel like it was successful, so idk. In 5 games with Levis, Hopkins as a 24% target share with a massive 16.49 aDOT... I have no problems clicking his name again. The return of Burks practically eliminates Moore/Philips from consideration. It's really him or Ikhine to consider, and both are probably too cheap in a matchup where they may be able to get over the top once --- if Vrabel commits to throwing/they fall behind, both of there aDOTs are at/above 17.92, making them tourney candidates IMO. Chig has a decent target share at 16%, and a good 7.96 aDOT for TE, at 3.1K, I think you can definitely do worse.

LAC/NEP

Chargers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Patriots have a great P/RB matchup.
Herbert has a great pass potential.
Zappe? has a good pressure rate situation. Stevenson has a good run potential.
Chargers TTR is 6th.
Pats TTR is 18th (meh).
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is 7th (meh).

- Injuries - LAC - On D, LB Bosa (51%+) is out for 2nd week. On O, WR Allen/TE Vannett both are Q/didn't practice.
- NEP - On O, WRs Boutte/Douglas are Q/not spotted at practice.

Has it just been a down year for QBs? I look at Herbert, and he has had just ONE game since week 3 where he went over 300 passing yards, and just THREE games with over 2 TDs, yet he was the QB4 going into the week (qb5 now). It kind of surprised me, and the matchup is perceived to be tough, but I think he is kind of a good pivot in some lineups off of the going to be uber popular Tua, and the first direct pivot in Stroud (all 3 are within $200). Ekeler has had a pretty tough test against stingier D's (CHI/NYJ/DET/GBP/BAL) when compared to NEP. In that span, he had a stretch of 3 straight games without fewer than 7 targets, his most recent 3 games he has seen 3 straight snap count increases, each one being a new season high, topping off last week at 80%. I don't know how salary is going to play out yet, as he is obviously expensively, and I do have interest in guys like Kamara, but he will be in my pool. In the 4 weeks without Palmer(or Mi. Williams of course), Allen has a probably league leading 38% target share, with an ok aDOT of 8.4... he is priced as the WR2 for a reason, and it really comes down too, can I fit him in if I go this direction? In the 3 games he's played, Guyton has only seen his snap count increase, hitting 80% last week (really his last 2 games), in those 2 games he had just a 13.5% target share, but with a big 12.18 aDOT, while you can go Johnston if you like, I prefer the slightly cheaper Guyton, and his boom upside. Everett/Parham are to expensive for there small target roles, call me when one is out.

Can't really say much about the Pats passing offense, as we really don't have to much data on Zappe with his WRs, so I will note, this is the last great matchup they have, the pace is awesome (from both ends - both teams in top 10 in pass rate), and it is possible both Douglas/Boutee miss, and they made up 31.5% of the targets last week. If that's the case, it is hard not to look at at least one-offing a Pats WR when they are almost floor priced, and there is only 3~ to choose from, Parker/Juju/Thornton. I lean Juju, as his last 2 weeks have been the most he's played to date, and we have seen him get RZ targets too (he may be the only WR not named Bourne to have scored a TD for this team....) If Douglas is in, he would probably be my choice. Henry just went targetless, and Gesciki just played 26% of snaps (Brown 54%), I don't think either of those things happen again, but I'll still pass for now. I've been touting Stevenson for a few weeks now, but somehow they barely bumped up his price (he is 6K), after good performances for weeks now. He is coming off a 3 week stretch that sandwiched a bye week with 21/20 carry and 5/5 target games... He is averaging over 5 targets/g in his last 6, seeing fewer than 5 (4) just once, oh and last week was his highest snap count of the year, at 78%... yes, yes and yes. Oh, and while I think he suits up, Zeke is Q with limited practices... so it's possible his direct backup misses as well.

DET/NOS

Lions have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Saints have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation. Montgomery? has a great run potential.
Carr has a good pressure rate situation.
Lions TTR is 3rd (good).
Saints TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is 4th.

- Injuries - DET - On D, LB Anzalone (100%) is doubtful.
- NOS - On D, S Maye (100%)/LB Werner (93%+) are out, CB Lattimore (95%) is out for 2nd week, and DE Jordan (82%) is Q. On O, no WR Thomas/Shaheed, no RB Miller, WR Olave is Q.

The Saints are missing some KEY pieces on defense... and possibly all their WRs.... no bueno.

Montgomery concerned me at first glance with a 27% snap share last week, but they were playing with a 2+ possession deficit before the 1st quarter was even over, and that never changed. He still had 15 efficient carries, and I expect them to play with a lead this week, he quietly has a scored a TD in every game he has completed. I wouldn't go overboard, but I'm fine with considering him for tourneys. Since Gibbs return, he has never had fewer than 5 targets, and he is 3x'd this salary in 4 of his 5 games (4x'ing 3 times), but again, I think DET plays with a lead, and if he doesn't get one of the first TDs, I'll have to many concerns. St. Brown is a candidate for 10+ 100+ 1+ every game he plays, so if you want to play him, go for it... he feels a touch to expensive to me, and I would play him only if you think Saints keep it competitive. Raymond has lost WR3 duties, pass, Reynolds actually has the worst aDOT of the bunch, and Jam williams is slowly catching him in playing time, and speaking of williams, he has a massive 18.25 aDOT, and is the HR potential on this team, with the secondary pieces missing for NOS, I like him as a dart/salary saver the most. Since the bye, LaPorta has a good TE aDOT at 8.28 but his target share of 17% gives me concern when he is the 2nd most expensive TE, and in a game where I think attempts will be at a premium, I'll probably pass.

Especially if Olave is out, I think Kamara is going to have a 10 target floor, and because of that, he can absolutely be considered. Also, if Olave is out, one of these WRs, or maybe multiple of them, will absolutely hit value. I think everyone will flock to Perry, but he had the worst aDOT of the bunch, I'd rather pivot to Kirkwood who has shown a history, or Bowden, who I actually like more, he looks to have filled the Shaheed role post injury with a 64% snap share, and a solid 12.5 aDOT. Taysom still only had 35% of snaps last week, despite all the injuries, 11 opps (2 targets) for a 5K+ back doesn't really excite me, so I kind of don't like it for a TE spot that either saps my upside of others in that range, or blocks me from salary relief/punting the TE spot, I'll pass. J. Johnson played his 3rd straight game of 75% of snaps, and last week led him to a solid 19% target share, with a good 8.43 aDOT (that is actually slightly better than what I mentioned above for Laporta but you get such a big discount, I think he is a fine play,...

ATL/NYJ

Falcons have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jets have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Ridder has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Bi. Robinson has a meh run potential.
Boyle has a meh pass potential. Hall has a bad run potential.
Falcons TTR is 15th (meh).
Jets TTR is T-19th (bad).
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is 10th (bad).

- Injuries - ATL - DEs Jarrett (62%)/London(43%) are both out for 4th straight week. On O, WR Hollins is Q.
- NYJ - On D, they may be returning CB Hardee, On O, they may be returning G Schweitzer. All 3 RBs are Q, but Hall has at least practiced.

Lets go Bijan, he is coming off a 22 touch (6 target) performance, where he was efficient, and looked too in the redzone, it's possible he is goes low owned in a perceived tough matchup, but NYJ has quietly been a bit leaky recently to RBs, Ekeler 70 total yards, 2 catches, 2 TDs,
Jacobs 127 total yards, 2 catches (100 yard bonus)
BUF Backs 192~ total yards, 6 catches, 2 TDs
MIA top 2 Backs 167~ total yards, 3 catches, 2 TDs
I think he is a sneaky tourney play, London has a 24% target sahre, and a 9.75 aDOT with Ridder, at 4.9K I think those metrics are actually good, but I can't stomach going this route, especially when the passing volume isn't there, Pitts has a great aDOT of 11 with Ridder, and a 18.5% target share, I think he is a fine option, but as of now I'd rather the slight price drop to Johnson types.

Since being "unleashed" hall has been the definition of consistent, and has a really safe PPR floor, and in his first start with Boyle, he tied his season high with 9 targets. While the matchup looks stingy, I'm fine if you want to go here. Lazard is supposed to be active now making gipson/brownlee more irrelevant.... this did price lazard at 3.2K, and on the year he has the best aDOT on the team, so if you wanted to get cute on a 1% ownership, fine, but I'd save it for a lineup if mass entering and expecting passing success. Wilson last week with Boyle had a 28.5% target share, with an 8.1 aDOT, which is not much worse than his season numbers, and we just saw a WR1 (Olave) begin to tear it up, I'm not going overboard in exposure to this team/game, but Garrett is a fine choice too. The aDOTs for the TEs last week were baddd, and if thats a sign to come with Boyle, I'm passing here.

ARI/PIT
Cards have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Steelers have a great P/RB matchup.
Kyler has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Najee? has a great run potential.
Cards TTR is 17th (meh).
Steelers TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 4th (good). O/U Rank is 8th (meh).

- Injuries - ARI - On D, CB Thomas V (53%) is out, and CB Hamilton (75%+)/LB White (100%)/DT Fotu (40%+)/ are out for 2nd week. On O, no WR Wilson, WR Hollywood/WR Pascal/TE McBride are all Q.
- PIT - On D, DT Adams (60%+) may be returning from a 3 week hiatus. S Neal (66%)/LB Alxander (56%) are out for 3rd week, LB Holcomb (80%+) is out for 4th week.

Conner almost needs to be cheaper before consideration, but I guess in semi close games, he has 18+~ touch potential, with a few targets, but in this matchup, I'll pass, and we've seen him get scripted out with a 42% snap count last week. In the 2 weeks with Dortch, Ro. Moore is a no go, as he has just a 5.5% target share. Hollywood/Dortch tie with a 23.5% Target share each (really good), while hollywood has a big 16.47 aDOT, dortch's is ok at 8.53... but the price is reflective in that, these would be my secondary bringback/one-off choices if you must go here. With Kyler, McBride has a great 24% target share with Kyler, and an ok 6.76 aDOT, he also has 100% snap count ability, he is a solid one-off, or bring back candidate.

I want to be heavier than most on this offense.. they're coming off a 400+ yard performance post OC firing, most of their choices are cheap relative to the positions, and the matchup is as good as any vs this porous D. Najee got his typical 15~ ish carries, and slight snap lead over Warren,. I don't like that he drew 0 targets though, so without a TD, he can really hurt you. Warren had 1 more opp (16), but with 3 targets... I am not in love with either, but don't mind adding them in if wanting to team or game stack, I lean Najee for the TD equity. but in tourneys, we've seen Warrens explosiveness, so I'm fine if you prefer that. While Pickens target share was much less than Diontae (15 to 25%), I really liked his big aDOT of 16.2, a decent amount higher than his season avg.... I think he has big play ability, but kind of like warren, if you want Diontae, he grades out just as well. I dont think Friermuth will have this exceptional of a game, but he had a whooping 35.5% target share, with a really good TE aDOT of 9.55, if his target share drops to even 20-25% while maintaining that aDOT, he really is a good play... I just feel like he may draw a ton of ownership, and I do like the other pieces a lot too, I'll most likely be underweight, but again, as a whole, I am attacking this offense in multiple ways.

CAR/TBB

Panthers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Bucs have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Young has a bad pressure rate situation. Hubbard? has a bad run potential.
Baker? has a great pressure rate situation.
Panthers TTR is T-19th (bad).
Bucs TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is 9th (bad).

- Injuries - CAR - On D, S Chin/LB Gross-Matos/CB Horn are all activated from IR, and will be a HUGE boost to this D if playing. S Bell (100%) is out. On O, no WR Shenault/TE Hurst, and TE Tremble is doubtful.
- TBB - On D, CB Dean (78%)/LB David (100% is out for 2nd week, LB White (100) is out, LB Dennis (90% last week) is doubtful. On O, WR Godwin is Q/GTD.

Got a feeling TBB going to burn a lot of survivor pools this week... CAR is possibly returning some of their best players on D, while TBB is going to be without a ton of their best players on D..., it feels like the 10th good passing game matchup for CAR... if this new coach doesn't give him the chance to throw it deep, I'm done with them.

I'm not to sure how they are going to handle the backfield duties now, but either way, it's a struggle to run vs this team, and they've struggled to run themselves... so really you want to grab Hubbard if you think he gets a ton of receptions, and I lean to avoiding. The 3 WRs in CAR have played 7 games together, Thielen has a 30% target share with a bad 6.65 aDOT, I think he is fine in PPR formats if you want to go here... but I'd rather punt down to the almost floor price WRs Mingo or Chark... of the 2, Mingo has an 18% target share, with a 10.54 aDOT, that combo should mean a price over 3.3K.... last week he 3x'd this salary by going just 4 for 60, I actually really like him this week, but if you prefer chark/have conviction, go for it. I guess if punting/one-offing/need a salary relief TE, Sullivan/Thomas may be the only TEs suiting up for this team, not sure I go here.

CAR has already been decent vs the pass, and returns of there better players in the secondary worry me... while I think no Godwin really boosts Evans share, if to many people zig this way, I may zag and fade. I'll mention palmer strictly from a volume stand point, if godwin doesn't suit up, he will be the de facto WR2, and actually has seen a 15%~ target share in his last 5 WITH godwin, I got it at a punt. There's a lot of TEs in this range I like, at 3.2K, 100% snap potential, and a route run rate of 79%, plus the possibility of increased target distribution with no Godwin makes me say Otton is a fine click/play. The only player I really want on this team minus a one-off or two, is R. White, CAR has been bad all year to RBs, and White is as reliable as he comes, you know he has 80%+ snap upside, with a great PPR floor.

MIA/WAS
Dolphins have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Commanders have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Tua has a great pressure rate situation, and great pass potential. Mostert? has a great run potential.
Howell has a bad pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential.
Dolphins TTR is 1st (great).
Commanders TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 9th. O/U Rank is 1st (great).

- Injuries - MIA - On D, LB Phillips (71%+) is out. On O, G/T Jones/Armstead are Q.
- WAS - On D, DE Smith-Williams is out for 3rd week, CB Forbes (65%+) is out for 2nd week.

I got to be quick ---- this game will be the most attacked game of the slate.. so you either ride it and be different elsewhere, or you fade it, and hoping it fails, which will give you big leverage on the field.

Mostert/Achane seem a bit to expensive for my liking.... but if you fade Tua+Receivers, you have to assume one of these guys eat..... but we also have wilson, fingers crossed they're limited to no more than 1 TD. At a minimum, one-offing Hill/Waddle should give you some protection, with the upside to this offense, as these 2 guys are the ones that are most likely to slate break. Pass on Smythe, while he plays a lot, he is pretty meh at routes ran per dropback, I know he is floor priced though, so if he happens to get 1 of the many TDs they could score, you'll be kicking yourself, but oh well.

Gibson had just as many snaps as Br. Robinson last week, and he finished with 10 touches, 4 targets... I expect them to be playing from behind again, and he could be a pretty nice leverage/pivot off of Moss if he can find a way to score. This passing offenses is already #1 in pass to run ratio, and I don't see that slowing down this week. In the 9 games the 3 have played together, Mclaurin leads in aDOT and Target share, and would be one of my options. Samuel > Dotson for me, as he leads in target share, and both aDOTs are nothing to write home about (6.93 and 8.26). Logan Thoams continues to fail me... I think he will be a bit to popular for me, I have more interest in Mclaurin/Gibson/Samuel, but I get it if yo uwant to go here.

Sundays 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)

DEN/HOU


Broncos have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Texans have a great P/RB matchup.
Russ has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Jav. Williams has a meh run potential.
Stroud has a great pass potential.
Broncos TTR is 7th.
Texans TTR is 2nd (good).
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is 2nd (good).

- Injuries - DEN - relatively healthy.
- HOU - On D, DT Rankins (59%) is Q. On O, T Howard is out for 2nd week, and TE Schultz is out.

Jav. Williams is coming off a season high 70% of snaps, while seeing 24 opps (6 targets), he should not be under 6K. I personally think DEN keeps it competitive and/or wins this game, which just helps his script. Sign me up. If you wanted to play some russell stacks, Sutton is obviously the WR1, and in the 10 games with Jeudy he has a good 24% target share, with a 10.14 aDOT, I don't hate it at 5.4K... I think Jeudy will go overlooked, and he can be considered with the slightly bigger aDOT of 11.68, and still a decent target share of 20%, I'd pick whoever will be lower owned.

I'm relatively down on HOU O this week, all 4 WRs are healthy for first time, so idk how distribution will go, and the matchup is worse than it looks, plus this is game #2 most people will flock too, while Stroud is WAY to expensive. If you wanted a bring back option, I'd probably lean Jordan the most, but otherwise Dell/Collins as idk the playing time split with Brown/Woods both active.

CLV/LAR
Browns have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Rams have a bad P/RB matchup.
DTR? has a bad pass potential.
Stafford has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Browns TTR is 16th (meh).
Rams TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is 8th (bad).

- Injuries - CLV - On D, 2nd week w/o CB Ward (83%), S McLeod (49%). On O, QB Walker is playing, WR Goodwin is out.
- LAR - On D, S Lake (100% 2 weeks ago) is out for 2nd week is out, DT Hoecht (85%) is Q.

With Flacco in, idk, I guess he can take care of the ball better than Walker. I think he wants to hit his playmakers, so I believe Cooper/Moore are interesting options in tourneys.

While Kyren has a tough matchup, he is coming off a 22 touch performance (6 targets), and maybe there is an argument that this kind of matchup keeps eyes off of him... he seems a bit to expensive for me, but you can talk me into anything for tourneys, and you certainly can do worse. I'd only consider Kupp/Nacua if you really believe CLV can keep up with Walker.

SFO/PHI
49ers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Eagles have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Purdy has a great pass potential. CMC has a good run potential.
Swift has a great run potential.
49ers TTR is 4th (good).
Eagles TTR is T-8th.
Pace of play is 13th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 3rd (good).

- Injuries - SFO - On D, S Hufanga (90%+) is out for 2nd week, DE Armstead (68%) is Q.
- PHI - On D, LB Cunningham (83%+) is out, DT Cox (70%+) is Q. On O, TEs Goedert is D, and Calcaterra is Q.

The pace of this game is lowww, but these teams are efficient. I personally think SFO wins/PHI will struggle, but I would never count them out.

CMC is just a machine, and if you want him, go for it. I just can't click Deebo when Aiyuk has a better target share in same games, and a MASSIVE aDOT difference too.

I probably won't have much, but you can convince me that this WRs for PHI are alpha status, and they will be lower owned than ever when compared to any other week this year.

Sunday Night/Showdown Slate
KCC/GBP

Chiefs have a good P/RB matchup.
Packers have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Mahomes has a good pass potential.
Pace of play is 10th.

- Injuries - KCC -
- GBP -

-

Monday Night/Showdown Slate
CIN/JAC

Bengals have a bad P/RB matchup.
Jaguars have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Browning? has a good pressure rate situation. Mixon has a bad run potential.
Pace of play is 12th (meh).

- Injuries - CIN -
- JAC -

-
 
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I really don’t see anything that jumps out as a great play for tonight, im not confident in either side really, tend to agree 9.5 seems like a lot of points, gun to my head I think seattle can play within that number but Geno against a top defense with the way he has seemed to regress this year doesn’t really excite me., not to mention I’m just not sure seattle can hang more than 20 here? Smith-njigba at 43.5 rec the one guy I kinda have my eye on, think he will need a good game for seattle offense to have success.

The real issue I see for seattle is 3rd downs on both sides the ball, they are not good converting them and Dallas d among the best getting off the field. On the other side Dallas offense is 2nd in the nfl converting over 47% their 3rd downs and seattle near the bottom allowing conversions so I see this as a game where there a real good chance dallas holds a large discrepancy in amount of plays. Has me thinking Dak ov 24.5 completions, even thought bout pollard rush attempts but 14.5 a big number for him, think that might be a bit telling but don’t think I can play that? I could see Tolbert, Ferguson, gallop all over their reception totals as it just feels like a game cowboys will be running more plays but I don’t see a lot that sticks out to me far as yardage numbers with value.
 
Ended up playing

Dak ov 24.5 completion

Tolbert, Ferguson, gallop over receptions

Seattle tt under 23.5

Smith-njigba I wheeled alt numbers up to 80+ and to score a td.

Lot of plays considering I didht really like much! Lol
 
Forgot to add I don’t love the juice but anytime they give you Dak ov 1.5 td passes and the juice less than -250 it basically free money.
 
It sucks Olavs Isn’t playin, he would carve up lions secondary.

See here the million dollar question for the day. Can Miami play on the road? Other than a early game in la vs the chargers who really don’t have a home field advantage Tua has not been the same guy away from Miami. That a real bummer cause the fish are prime to put up monster numbers vs this absolute garbage Washington secondary who then traded away their pass rush!! Commanders routinely blow coverages and McDaniel is a master at getting guys wide open!!! If this game was being played in Miami I’d have no problem saying Tua would put up 400 passing with waddle and hill both going for 150+!! It would be a great great opportunity!! I just don’t know if I can pull the trigger on the road cause fish just don’t look like the same team away from home. I think im gonna just ignore the road struggles cause the matchup is just to damn good! I have no doubt we will see waddle and hill running free all over the field!! The only question besides the road woes is can the commanders offense put up enough points to keep fish throwing or will we see a lot of a 2 or maybe even 3 headed backfield with achane back?

Im absolutely playing waddle 70+, 80+, 90+, 100+ which is +310, might go to to 120+!! Can’t really do much with hill cept play his over 100, guess we could play over 120 for +125? This makes me think might as well add Tua but the road numbers scare me. Of course at 280 if waddle and hill both going well over 100 he damn near there already!

No clue how much work achane will get but his numbers are pretty low.

On commanders side looking at Samuel rec, just can’t trust Dotson or mcclarrion these days.
 
It sounds to me like Olave is expected to play. Seeing how it was a concussion lomg as he passed protocol I don’t have any concerns w him. Gotta love him to go over his yards vs lions
 
Not big on playing any jets but the falcons have been pretty awful defending tight ends. Conklin hasn’t been bad and his number is only 22.5, not only that but we can get +250 on 40+ yards. I think he def worth a shot at that price!!

Really sucks Shultz is out cause broncos have really struggled defending tight ends! This might be a bit a flyer but it sounds like brevin Jordan will be getting a lot the te work and I just trust stroud to get the ball to the open man, against the broncos that open man has been the tight end! Another very easily attainable number at 24.5. Not sure if I have the stones to look at alt numbers but man, just 40+ yards pays really nice and donks been giving that up to a tight end every week! The biggest issue is can we trust Jordan will be the guy getting most the te snaps?
 
Think this a game we can play either or the Steelers running backs, game script should favor the run game, cardinals not good stopping the run. Both Harris and warren numbers only in the 50s. Think I like Harris yards + a td and warren yards.
 
Ended up playing a Pretty big card but see lot of value!!

Najee Harris ov 56.5 rush/td
Warren ov 58.5 rush


More on Harris yards and td as I think this a Harris type game but cards so bad against the run I think there room for both guys to go over. Harris gets the heavier workload but warren could easily bust one.

Stephenson ov 22.5 rec yards

Love the benching of Mac and cheese here, Zappe gets the ball out quick and chargers don’t defend rb out the backfield very well, I assume pats be trailing so that would def help game script.

I didn’t play moss props but I love him for dfs!

That pretty much it for running backs.

Waddle ov 66.5 rec/100+ @ +310
Hill ov 100.5 rec


The matchup against Washington’s crappy secondary is just to damn good not to play them even if Miami offense hasn’t been same on the road. At least one these guys going off, possibly both!

Logan Thomas ov 34.5 rec..

Game script should be favorable, hate trying to pick between commanders wrs but think Thomas a pretty safe bet to get this number.


Olave ov 69.5 rec/100+ @ +240
Williams ov 23.5 rec /50+ @ +400


Saints are gonna have to pass snd pass a lot imo, you can beat lions deep and olave one the better deep ball receivers around, sounds like he cleared concussion protocol so not worried bout his snaps and think he has a monster game!

Williams is gonna figure it out one these days!! He has caught a 30+ yard pass in each the last 2 weeks, teams gotta focus on st brown, Laporte, and the running backs, this kid is gonna turn into a big play a week guy at sone point! Great price for him to get 50 yards, the ov 23.5 a no brainer!!

Aiyuk ov 62.5/ 100+ @ +320
Purdy ov 251.5 passing/ ov 1.5 td passes


The eagles secondary is trash, niners gonna light these guys up. Aiyuk the obvious choice for the biggest game as he has turned into their most consistent wr. Don’t see the run game being a huge factor for either side so think we see lots of pass attempts in what should easily be best game of the day, niners are gonna make a statement tho, believe that!

I might be crazy for these next 2 but gotta say I love them!! They might both end up w goose eggs but what can ya do? Gotta go for it when ya think you see a edge!!

Brevin Jordan ov 24.5 rec/ td @ +340/ 40+ @ +225/ 50+ @ +400

Houston wr a tad banged up, no Shultz which a bummer cause I woulda wheeled him up to 100+! Donks do not defend te’s well at all, stroud has proven he willing and able to throw the ball ti the open man. If Jordan gets the majority the te snaps as I suspect he will he could very well be open and in for a pretty nice game!! Or like I said he could end up with 1 catch for 5 yards, lol.

Conklin ov 22.5 rec/ td @ +450/ 40+ @ +240

Playing any jet to score a td is probably nuts but +450 against a falcons team who lets te’a score quite a bit I figured what the hell, just maybe jets score 1 td and it goes to him!!! The yardage props a no brainer tho! He has went over 22.5 in 3 of his last 4 and has 5 games of 50+ on the year! Maybe should play him 50+ at +400 also as falcons pretty terrible against te’s!!


That should just bout do it for me. I could lose a bunch of money on this card or I could have a monster day, who knows! Lol. I really do like it tho!!
 
Ended up playing a Pretty big card but see lot of value!!

Najee Harris ov 56.5 rush/td
Warren ov 58.5 rush


More on Harris yards and td as I think this a Harris type game but cards so bad against the run I think there room for both guys to go over. Harris gets the heavier workload but warren could easily bust one.

Stephenson ov 22.5 rec yards

Love the benching of Mac and cheese here, Zappe gets the ball out quick and chargers don’t defend rb out the backfield very well, I assume pats be trailing so that would def help game script.

I didn’t play moss props but I love him for dfs!

That pretty much it for running backs.

Waddle ov 66.5 rec/100+ @ +310
Hill ov 100.5 rec


The matchup against Washington’s crappy secondary is just to damn good not to play them even if Miami offense hasn’t been same on the road. At least one these guys going off, possibly both!

Logan Thomas ov 34.5 rec..

Game script should be favorable, hate trying to pick between commanders wrs but think Thomas a pretty safe bet to get this number.


Olave ov 69.5 rec/100+ @ +240
Williams ov 23.5 rec /50+ @ +400


Saints are gonna have to pass snd pass a lot imo, you can beat lions deep and olave one the better deep ball receivers around, sounds like he cleared concussion protocol so not worried bout his snaps and think he has a monster game!

Williams is gonna figure it out one these days!! He has caught a 30+ yard pass in each the last 2 weeks, teams gotta focus on st brown, Laporte, and the running backs, this kid is gonna turn into a big play a week guy at sone point! Great price for him to get 50 yards, the ov 23.5 a no brainer!!

Aiyuk ov 62.5/ 100+ @ +320
Purdy ov 251.5 passing/ ov 1.5 td passes


The eagles secondary is trash, niners gonna light these guys up. Aiyuk the obvious choice for the biggest game as he has turned into their most consistent wr. Don’t see the run game being a huge factor for either side so think we see lots of pass attempts in what should easily be best game of the day, niners are gonna make a statement tho, believe that!

I might be crazy for these next 2 but gotta say I love them!! They might both end up w goose eggs but what can ya do? Gotta go for it when ya think you see a edge!!

Brevin Jordan ov 24.5 rec/ td @ +340/ 40+ @ +225/ 50+ @ +400

Houston wr a tad banged up, no Shultz which a bummer cause I woulda wheeled him up to 100+! Donks do not defend te’s well at all, stroud has proven he willing and able to throw the ball ti the open man. If Jordan gets the majority the te snaps as I suspect he will he could very well be open and in for a pretty nice game!! Or like I said he could end up with 1 catch for 5 yards, lol.

Conklin ov 22.5 rec/ td @ +450/ 40+ @ +240

Playing any jet to score a td is probably nuts but +450 against a falcons team who lets te’a score quite a bit I figured what the hell, just maybe jets score 1 td and it goes to him!!! The yardage props a no brainer tho! He has went over 22.5 in 3 of his last 4 and has 5 games of 50+ on the year! Maybe should play him 50+ at +400 also as falcons pretty terrible against te’s!!


That should just bout do it for me. I could lose a bunch of money on this card or I could have a monster day, who knows! Lol. I really do like it tho!!
Great stuff
 
Rachaad white -105 td & 2td+575 are worth a look. Panthers run D is trash & white is getting all the carries- ride it till the wheels fall off.

Kyler Murray @+255 to score is crazy Steelers D is great but cmon that's one thing he can do
 
Rachaad white -105 td & 2td+575 are worth a look. Panthers run D is trash & white is getting all the carries- ride it till the wheels fall off.

Kyler Murray @+255 to score is crazy Steelers D is great but cmon that's one thing he can do

I played some dfs today and used white in a high percentage but didn’t play his props for sone reason. Good call.
 
I can’t believe I used waddle instead of hill in this 9 teamer I threw together for 10 bucks. Waddle was my only miss, still had aiyuk to cash but what a bummer! At least I bet hill today, far too many times I find myself playing waddle and not hill, I know it cause the number and the fact I can get way better privies when waddle has a big game while Hill has to clear 100 just to cash his regular number. Thing is Hill clears 100 practically every fucjing week and waddle hasn’t been all that great!! He been bit better lately. Today I just thought Washington secondary was so so so bad that both guys would probably have monster games! Waddle had 49 at half, thought I was gonna be on getting to 70!!! Hell I was more worried bout olave and Conklin and they both cash easy.

Guess I shoulda considered the possibility fish might not throw much in 2md half. I thought commanders shoulda been able to score enough to keep fish throwing. Commanders offense has been regressing terribly tho, 1st 5-6 games I thought Howell could be a legit starting qb and Bienemy was proving how stupid the league was for not giving him A HC gig! I dunno if teams have figured them out or what but they have only cleared 20 points twice in last 7 games!! For some reason Dotson has not taken the leap I fully expected him to. Mcclarrion has regressed. They have more than enough talent, something isn’t working tho? Maybe it just Howell not being a legit starter??
 
I just lost my edit off the KCC/GBP game.

Long story short Pacheco is coming off a season high in snaps, and his a good floor/ceiling player/pivot off of mahomes too.
Kelce is definitely a big priority too, he hasn't had a big game in awhile, but on any drive he can go 4-50-1.
Rice/Watson seem a bit to expensive, Toney/Moore are nice cheap/salary saving options (or Gray as a pivot off of them 2), MVS seems in a good spot. I think you build lineups without these WRs, then see which one fits if you need it.

I will not be playing Dillon, give me all the P. Taylor at 2K.
In the 7 games with the 3 WRs all in, Reed has the lowest target share AND aDOT, yet he is the most expensive, hard pass. Obviously give me Watson and is huge 17.45 aDOT, but don't mind doubs either.
Kraft played 96% of snaps last week without musgrave and he isn't too expensive, I think you can consider him.
 
I just lost my edit off the KCC/GBP game.

Long story short Pacheco is coming off a season high in snaps, and his a good floor/ceiling player/pivot off of mahomes too.
Kelce is definitely a big priority too, he hasn't had a big game in awhile, but on any drive he can go 4-50-1.
Rice/Watson seem a bit to expensive, Toney/Moore are nice cheap/salary saving options (or Gray as a pivot off of them 2), MVS seems in a good spot. I think you build lineups without these WRs, then see which one fits if you need it.

I will not be playing Dillon, give me all the P. Taylor at 2K.
In the 7 games with the 3 WRs all in, Reed has the lowest target share AND aDOT, yet he is the most expensive, hard pass. Obviously give me Watson and is huge 17.45 aDOT, but don't mind doubs either.
Kraft played 96% of snaps last week without musgrave and he isn't too expensive, I think you can consider him.

My weekend of near misses on big paydays continued in this one!! I needed rice to score a td to cash a very nice sgp, second guy today I had tackled on the 1 yard line after Najee Harris was stuffed earlier today!!!

Being greedy I also had a parlay they needed rice 70+ instead his very generous base number of 43.5!! (I did at least get a nice cash on that!). Caught a small break getting mahomes rush total on last drive. Had a easy cash w love completions, got Reed receptions but I went w his yards also and doubs td, so of course watson has a 2 td gane and hits his yards!! I’m starting to think im better of playing love props than messing with his wrs as I have a hard time figuring out which packers wr to play but I’ve been pretty good with loves yards and/or completions:attempts. Going forward little note to self there!! Lol,


Wkat you thinking for 2’arro?? I’m already down on Etienne ov rec yards as his number felt very short! That it so far
 
Tonight I rocked with

Mixon ov 18.5 rec yards

Etienne ov 66.5 rush

Those my biggest 2. Just think game script will be cincy behind and throwing, I’d think a back like Mixon be a backup qb best friend and that number nothing for him to hit. Was actually surprised it wasn’t in the mid 20s, must play imo.

Etienne rushing again game script, jags huge favs and I expect they have the lead most the night, should lead to Etienne getting 18-20 carry’s. Cincy run d is not good allowing close to 5ypc, I actually considered alt props here as I think Etienne could easily go for 100+ tonight!! Instead of being greedy I just went ahead and put more money on this number. And then I parlayed these 2 together.


Few others I kinda like that I made a small lotto ticket sgp out of.

Obviously the 2 above are in it then I also added these.

Lawrence under 32.5 pass attempts
Engram 40+ rec yards
Etienne td
Lawrence ov 13.5 rushing
Game under 43

I don’t think Lawrence gonna need to throw more than 30 passes tonight. If im correct about Etienne and he having success I assume at least 1-2 times Lawrence will be able to pull it out on the zone read and get 10 easy yards when the end collapses. Etienne td is probably overpriced considering his 8 tds in the year have come in bunches, think he had a 4 game stretch where he scored 7 of those 8, so maybe if ya wanted to be greedy and play that straight the move would be playing multiple tds at +450 but just for this parlay no sense in all that. I don’t get involved w jags pass catchers much, prob cause I lost 2-3 weeks straight on Ridley but mostly cause they have 4 dudes who can go off any game not to mentions Etienne. There games where I prefer playing Kirk cause I think certain teams are good matchups for him. Tonight I just rolled w engram cause cincy struggles defending te’s and again If I’m correct on game script the play action should open things up for the tight end. The under total is just basically a must as all the Monday night ganes go under! Bought a few points cause why not?

Anyways like I said this was just a 7 teamer for shits and giggles, Thursday I missed a huge paying one solely cause that td to smith-nijigba was called back! Him scoring a td paid a very fat one plus I had another with his alt yards over 70 which would have hit if they didn’t take the 30 yard td away! That was just the beginning of a weekend where I had 1000s of dollars in parlays lose cause of 1-3 guys/plays mostly in the most redic fashion possible! Saturday Milroe passing yards falling 20 short cost me a bunch, he didn’t have 1 yard in 1st qrtr and then he throw almost nine the last 5 or so minutes cause bama was salting the clock away! JrdThen I had Michigan team total over 27.5, somehow despite living on iowa half the 50 all right they came up 2 points short!

Then yesterday happened! I missed a 9 teamer that paid close to 1.5k only needing waddle ov 69.5, he had 50ish at half and of course didn’t catch another pass!! For the life of me I can’t figure out why I continue to play waddle when hill smashes his 100ish total every week?!?!? I played hill but not in the parlay of course!! Really didn’t think it matter yesterday As I thought they would both go to r 100+ against a Washington sevindaey I think one the worst in the league!!! You can only imagine how painful the 2ns half that game was! Then I had 2 other parlays that paid im the 300-600 range, one had pats rb Stephenson ov rec yards, one had his rush yards, of course he started fantastic and then he gets hurt!!! Moving on to the niners game I hit Purdy passing yards, ov 1.5 tds, kittle yards, all I needed was Aiyuk ov 62.5, like waddle he had right bout 50 at the half and just like waddle didn’t catch a pass or even get a ball thrown his way!! Once again gane script sucked as niners didn’t throw a ton in 4rh. The one time they did they throw they of course throw the screen to Debo and he takes it to the house! Another huge kick in the nuts!! Just when ya think it over with the kc game I need rice to score a td, if you missed it he got tackled at the 1 yard line!! Big strong kid could have farted and pushed the pile the last inch! Oh and I had his alt number 70+ to cash another nice one, think he ended with 65 yards and didht get a pass on the last drive! For some reason kc and mahomes turn retarded and start launching it up to MVS who can’t catch!! And what in gods name where they doing when they got that 1st down on 36 with 19 seconds left?? They could have easily thrown a couple 5-10 yard passes to the sideline and got it inside the 20 before taking their shots!! Basically throwing 4 Hail Marys feim the 35 was so so dumb! Not very kc like but I guess anything to have me lose out on one more should have been nice cash!! Lmfao.

Anyways sorry for the rant, it was just crazy, All I can do to keep my head up is something very similar happened weeks 1-2 Of college and nfl season and it lead to me going on a 2 month stretch where I cashed out every week!! So I’m gonna forget how much I could have won, be happy I made some nine and exoect another hot streak is coming so get ready boys!!!! Lol
 
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