ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
For thanksgiving games, the TTRs and O/U Ranks are based of the 3 total games, Pace of play is of the entire week.
Thanksgiving Games/3 Game Slate
CHI@DET
Bears have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lions have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Williams has a bad pass potential. Swift~ has a bad rush potential.
Gibbs/Montgom have a good rush potential.
Bears TTR is 5th (meh).
Lions TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is T-9th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- I know Swift has a bit of a lingering injury, but it hasn't helped seeing his snap counts be some of the lowest of the season the last 2 weeks (57/55%), as well as roschon vulturing TDs in b2b games --- this also coincides with the new OC change... at the moment I will be very underweight at best. In these 2 weeks, Moore has a very poor 2.2 aDOT, and the worst target share of 18% among the big 3. Odunze leads in aDOT at 11.2 (25.5% target share), and Allen leads in target share at 29.5% (8.1 aDOT). They all have RZ targets, while my fantasy teams disagree, I can't click Moore when Odunze/Allen are cheaper and have a higher projection. In a mostly positive pass script, Williams through the ball 47 times, that kind of volume with the target share above can lead to a huge outing by at least 1 of these WRs, but really 2 could succeed. I don't want to go overboard with a ton of bears, but I will note Kmet has had a good TE aDOT of 8.6, and a 16.7% target share, he gets RZ looks as well, and he will likely go underowned with Joonu/LaPorta, and even Kraft on the list.
I already like Gibbs every week, but if Montgomery is out, he may be a lock in your lineup, and then figure the rest out. I don't hate LaPorta, and he is so much cheaper than what we was in the not so distant past, but assuming ASB is in, can we trust him? He did play 90%+ snaps last week in his return from injury, and while his 6 adOT is ok, the 18% target share does exceed his season avg, it was also nice to see 2 RZ targets in that game as well. I wouldn't keep him off your list, but I understand the reason/want to be underowned. I obviously like him more if no ASB. I don't really want to play Goff, unless you believe bears play with a lead (or get some special teams TDs, could be an interesting combo of Goff + CHI D), so I will limit my exposure to the pass catchers. ASB scares me, as I don't think they should push him and him playing with a knew injury can always reaggravate, but I guess both MIN/GBP are chomping at the bit for a way to catch up to a 10-1 team, and only being 1/2 games behind you might see them push him. Jame-o has a big aDOT (17 in the last 2 games with ASB/LaPorta), he is an intersting tourney play, but isn't to cheap, if ASB is out, he becomes more interesting, but I have my eyes on Patrick, no Raymond either, and he should be the direct beneficiary of the most playing time and is coming off a 4 for 55 game.
NYG@DAL
Giants have a great P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a good RB matchup.
Lock? has a meh pressure rate situation. Tracy has a great rush potential.
Rush? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Dowdle has a meh rush potential.
Giants TTR is 6th (bad/last).
Cowboys TTR is 4th.
Pace of play is 1st (good) (overall). O/U Rank is 3rd (bad/last).
- Can't believe Giants are getting away with starting lock because of a Devito injury and passing by the incentive issue, but anyways. In locks 2 starts last year, he had a 69% completion%, which was about T-6th in that timespan, he is 4.5K on DK, and arguably has the best matchup on the slate, and the pace of the game is the fastest --- now DAL played slower last week, probably due to lead, but they were still fast with Rush the prior weeks, and the Giants with DeVito were faster than their season average as well -. This being the worst O/U, by far, of the 3, makes me actually want to be overexposed, as I wouldn't be shocked at it challenging the top spot in terms of points scored. There's not much to go off of, I obviously like Tracy, I think the 40% snap share could be because of the fumble, but really it was 23-0 when that happened, to start the 2nd half, and was 30-0 by the time they got the ball back. It is hard not to like Nabers, he had a 30% snap share last week, but we also can expect some variance/volatility in these numbers now on their 3rd qb of the season. What we know is he/robinson/slayton play the most, and my gut says if we need salary savers, Robinson/Slayton are good options to get some.
Dowdle's backfield, last week, with zeke back, it looks like it is at worst a 60/20/20 split. He had 22 opps (3 targets) in that game, and hasn't had fewer than 3 targets in his last 4 games since the bye (really last 5 games, but he wasn't the true starter than). He is a great option at 5.5K, which is also the cheapest price among all starting RBs this slate. Assuming Rush suits up, in his 2 full starts the last 2 weeks, Lamb has had a really good 28% target share, but only a 5.67 aDOT. I still will have him, but I won't be overweight. Of course I give up on tolbert and his continual every down role, and he scores a TD finally... no other WR gets enough playing time to consider, but tolbert is definitely one of my punt/salary saving options as he is consistently out there 90%+ of the time, even like last week. If Ferguson is out, Schoonmaker is another viable TE option, he has an 8 aDOT (similar to the others mentioned above), with a 16.5% target share. Every TE isn't that far off in price, i'd consider your team correlation to the player and/or ownership% when deciding.
MIA@GBP
Dolphins have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Packers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Tua has a good pressure rate matchup, but a meh pass potential.
Love has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Dolphins TTR is 3rd.
Packers TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- This is Achanes backfield, and we're just living in it (is that the saying?), even in last weeks blowout where he only played 53% of snasps, he still maintained his sick ppr floor with 4 targets (as well as scoring 2 TDs off of them). He should be highly considered in a big chunk of lineups. Outside of Waddle/Hill there is no reason to chase these WR3/4/5s, none play that much, and there are other options in the other games that are cheap. If Hill is out, Malik Washington seems to be the one who has played the most when the 2 are active, maybe most go to OBJ so that could be nice. I will mention Cracraft came back from IR a few weeks back, he hasn't seen a target yet, but did play 24% of snaps last week, but again I thnik thats mainly due to script. I want to be underweight Jonnu SO BAD, I know he will be highly owned, and people will chase his recent success, his 21% target share since the bye (5 games) leads the team, but he has the worst aDOT of the TE group at 4.9. Now, those factors alone make me want to just exlude him, but he does have a huge amount of RZ targets (6 in the last 2 weeks alone), so I haven't made a final decision yet. Based off numbers/price, Waddle obviously looks like the better option, but we are still talking about Tyreek Hill here, and when everyone bobs, you should weave where it makes sense, and I think it makes sense. I have interest in both, but I will be overexposed on Hill.
Jacobs PPR floor can be range-y, but in the games with a low floor, its because they are leading, and he is easily getting 25+ carries, so there's good and bad with him, he also has a path to 80%~ of snaps if the game stays in a neutral script. So he can always be considered. Another reason why you can like Jacobs, is because the passing offense is so hard to predict, and if you click jacobs, you can just hope it goes through him over love. But it's a small slate, and it is DFS, where anything can happen. In the games where both love has played in full, and all WRs are healthy (5 of last 6 games), Reed has had the worst aDOT of 6.7, and barely 2nd in target share at 15%, he is the most expensive, and grades out as one of the worst, pass. Wicks doesn't play enough and is hte oddman out, while he still has a nice aDOT, I'd very very rarely play him unless mass entering, or an injury to 1 of the top 3. Which leaves us with Doubs, 19.5% target share/11.9 aDOT, I will have some shares of him, and then my favorite tourney player, Watson, he quietly has been 1st of 2nd in snaps among the WRs in the last 6 games, has the biggest aDOT of 22 (hr potential!?), and an ok target share of 14.4%. I'm not going overboard here on any, but I will have Watson followed by Doubs the most. Pass on Kraft, low target share, and worst aDOT of 5.
Thanksgiving Games/3 Game Slate
CHI@DET
Bears have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lions have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Williams has a bad pass potential. Swift~ has a bad rush potential.
Gibbs/Montgom have a good rush potential.
Bears TTR is 5th (meh).
Lions TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is T-9th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- I know Swift has a bit of a lingering injury, but it hasn't helped seeing his snap counts be some of the lowest of the season the last 2 weeks (57/55%), as well as roschon vulturing TDs in b2b games --- this also coincides with the new OC change... at the moment I will be very underweight at best. In these 2 weeks, Moore has a very poor 2.2 aDOT, and the worst target share of 18% among the big 3. Odunze leads in aDOT at 11.2 (25.5% target share), and Allen leads in target share at 29.5% (8.1 aDOT). They all have RZ targets, while my fantasy teams disagree, I can't click Moore when Odunze/Allen are cheaper and have a higher projection. In a mostly positive pass script, Williams through the ball 47 times, that kind of volume with the target share above can lead to a huge outing by at least 1 of these WRs, but really 2 could succeed. I don't want to go overboard with a ton of bears, but I will note Kmet has had a good TE aDOT of 8.6, and a 16.7% target share, he gets RZ looks as well, and he will likely go underowned with Joonu/LaPorta, and even Kraft on the list.
I already like Gibbs every week, but if Montgomery is out, he may be a lock in your lineup, and then figure the rest out. I don't hate LaPorta, and he is so much cheaper than what we was in the not so distant past, but assuming ASB is in, can we trust him? He did play 90%+ snaps last week in his return from injury, and while his 6 adOT is ok, the 18% target share does exceed his season avg, it was also nice to see 2 RZ targets in that game as well. I wouldn't keep him off your list, but I understand the reason/want to be underowned. I obviously like him more if no ASB. I don't really want to play Goff, unless you believe bears play with a lead (or get some special teams TDs, could be an interesting combo of Goff + CHI D), so I will limit my exposure to the pass catchers. ASB scares me, as I don't think they should push him and him playing with a knew injury can always reaggravate, but I guess both MIN/GBP are chomping at the bit for a way to catch up to a 10-1 team, and only being 1/2 games behind you might see them push him. Jame-o has a big aDOT (17 in the last 2 games with ASB/LaPorta), he is an intersting tourney play, but isn't to cheap, if ASB is out, he becomes more interesting, but I have my eyes on Patrick, no Raymond either, and he should be the direct beneficiary of the most playing time and is coming off a 4 for 55 game.
NYG@DAL
Giants have a great P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a good RB matchup.
Lock? has a meh pressure rate situation. Tracy has a great rush potential.
Rush? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Dowdle has a meh rush potential.
Giants TTR is 6th (bad/last).
Cowboys TTR is 4th.
Pace of play is 1st (good) (overall). O/U Rank is 3rd (bad/last).
- Can't believe Giants are getting away with starting lock because of a Devito injury and passing by the incentive issue, but anyways. In locks 2 starts last year, he had a 69% completion%, which was about T-6th in that timespan, he is 4.5K on DK, and arguably has the best matchup on the slate, and the pace of the game is the fastest --- now DAL played slower last week, probably due to lead, but they were still fast with Rush the prior weeks, and the Giants with DeVito were faster than their season average as well -. This being the worst O/U, by far, of the 3, makes me actually want to be overexposed, as I wouldn't be shocked at it challenging the top spot in terms of points scored. There's not much to go off of, I obviously like Tracy, I think the 40% snap share could be because of the fumble, but really it was 23-0 when that happened, to start the 2nd half, and was 30-0 by the time they got the ball back. It is hard not to like Nabers, he had a 30% snap share last week, but we also can expect some variance/volatility in these numbers now on their 3rd qb of the season. What we know is he/robinson/slayton play the most, and my gut says if we need salary savers, Robinson/Slayton are good options to get some.
Dowdle's backfield, last week, with zeke back, it looks like it is at worst a 60/20/20 split. He had 22 opps (3 targets) in that game, and hasn't had fewer than 3 targets in his last 4 games since the bye (really last 5 games, but he wasn't the true starter than). He is a great option at 5.5K, which is also the cheapest price among all starting RBs this slate. Assuming Rush suits up, in his 2 full starts the last 2 weeks, Lamb has had a really good 28% target share, but only a 5.67 aDOT. I still will have him, but I won't be overweight. Of course I give up on tolbert and his continual every down role, and he scores a TD finally... no other WR gets enough playing time to consider, but tolbert is definitely one of my punt/salary saving options as he is consistently out there 90%+ of the time, even like last week. If Ferguson is out, Schoonmaker is another viable TE option, he has an 8 aDOT (similar to the others mentioned above), with a 16.5% target share. Every TE isn't that far off in price, i'd consider your team correlation to the player and/or ownership% when deciding.
MIA@GBP
Dolphins have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Packers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Tua has a good pressure rate matchup, but a meh pass potential.
Love has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Dolphins TTR is 3rd.
Packers TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- This is Achanes backfield, and we're just living in it (is that the saying?), even in last weeks blowout where he only played 53% of snasps, he still maintained his sick ppr floor with 4 targets (as well as scoring 2 TDs off of them). He should be highly considered in a big chunk of lineups. Outside of Waddle/Hill there is no reason to chase these WR3/4/5s, none play that much, and there are other options in the other games that are cheap. If Hill is out, Malik Washington seems to be the one who has played the most when the 2 are active, maybe most go to OBJ so that could be nice. I will mention Cracraft came back from IR a few weeks back, he hasn't seen a target yet, but did play 24% of snaps last week, but again I thnik thats mainly due to script. I want to be underweight Jonnu SO BAD, I know he will be highly owned, and people will chase his recent success, his 21% target share since the bye (5 games) leads the team, but he has the worst aDOT of the TE group at 4.9. Now, those factors alone make me want to just exlude him, but he does have a huge amount of RZ targets (6 in the last 2 weeks alone), so I haven't made a final decision yet. Based off numbers/price, Waddle obviously looks like the better option, but we are still talking about Tyreek Hill here, and when everyone bobs, you should weave where it makes sense, and I think it makes sense. I have interest in both, but I will be overexposed on Hill.
Jacobs PPR floor can be range-y, but in the games with a low floor, its because they are leading, and he is easily getting 25+ carries, so there's good and bad with him, he also has a path to 80%~ of snaps if the game stays in a neutral script. So he can always be considered. Another reason why you can like Jacobs, is because the passing offense is so hard to predict, and if you click jacobs, you can just hope it goes through him over love. But it's a small slate, and it is DFS, where anything can happen. In the games where both love has played in full, and all WRs are healthy (5 of last 6 games), Reed has had the worst aDOT of 6.7, and barely 2nd in target share at 15%, he is the most expensive, and grades out as one of the worst, pass. Wicks doesn't play enough and is hte oddman out, while he still has a nice aDOT, I'd very very rarely play him unless mass entering, or an injury to 1 of the top 3. Which leaves us with Doubs, 19.5% target share/11.9 aDOT, I will have some shares of him, and then my favorite tourney player, Watson, he quietly has been 1st of 2nd in snaps among the WRs in the last 6 games, has the biggest aDOT of 22 (hr potential!?), and an ok target share of 14.4%. I'm not going overboard here on any, but I will have Watson followed by Doubs the most. Pass on Kraft, low target share, and worst aDOT of 5.
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