DFS/Props Week 12 Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thursday Night/Showdown Slate
BUF@HOU
Bills have a bad P/RB matchup.
Texans have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation.
Mills has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Marks~ has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 14th (bad/last).
- Allen has the best floor/ceiling combo to where it is hard not to captain him, if looking at the BUF side for this, the only other reasonable option is Cook, because there is a world where cook succeeds/allen fails, but no WR is going to outshine Allen with how much he spreads it around, and his rushing td/yard upside. Cook has actually had B2B games with more than 1 target, avg'ing 4 per/g over his L2, when he averaged 0.5 in his L4..... if he will be utilized like that, he isn't a bad bet, but it is hard to get both him and allen in lineups, assuming you capt. one, they take up about 60% of your salary with 4 spots to go. If you think BUF plays with a deficit for most of the game, I think you can consider Ty johnson at his cheap price, as he tends to get around 40% of snaps in those matchups, but again, only if you play out that kind of HOU type script. w/o kincaid last week, 8 different WRs/TEs had targets, and none hit 17% of the targets ---- Coleman was also missing that game, so with him back, you'd think it should stabilize a touch more. Wk6 might be the closest thing to that scenario, and Coleman had a 23% target share, Shakir/Shavers were at 19%, while those are that I want the most, I don't see myself playing much of Shakir at that price, Shavers is too cheap, and Coleman is priced fine. Knox is fine, but really you are TD hunting with him, as the 2 games w/o Kincaid, he has just 5 total targets (1 TD), and never hit double digit points, not even in that TD game, I'll be underweight.
Mills SZN!, I won't even look at wk9's partial game, but in the 2 games with Mills, Collins has a really good 30% target sahre/11.68 aDOT, and is absolutely a capt. candidate. Schultz has also been really good, he has had a 24% target share, with a good te aDOT of 7.55. Higgins is way to cheap, he surpassed Kirk on the depth chart, and has the best aDOT with mills at 14, he'd be the only other pass catching option to consider, as Hutchinson/Kirk/Noel are fighting for WR3, and none have a target share of 9% even. Marks is averaging 73% snaps, 19 opps (2 targets/g) with Mills, those are fine numbers, and add that with a matchup against this BUF run D, and you can see success. My fear is the low target volume, and what the shakedown will be in a game they are trailing, maybe Chubb does play a touch more in those scenarios now, and 2 targets/g with the high exposure he will have, I can see a reason to be underweight the field and hope he fails, not sure what I'll be doing here.
BUF@HOU
Bills have a bad P/RB matchup.
Texans have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation.
Mills has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Marks~ has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 14th (bad/last).
- Allen has the best floor/ceiling combo to where it is hard not to captain him, if looking at the BUF side for this, the only other reasonable option is Cook, because there is a world where cook succeeds/allen fails, but no WR is going to outshine Allen with how much he spreads it around, and his rushing td/yard upside. Cook has actually had B2B games with more than 1 target, avg'ing 4 per/g over his L2, when he averaged 0.5 in his L4..... if he will be utilized like that, he isn't a bad bet, but it is hard to get both him and allen in lineups, assuming you capt. one, they take up about 60% of your salary with 4 spots to go. If you think BUF plays with a deficit for most of the game, I think you can consider Ty johnson at his cheap price, as he tends to get around 40% of snaps in those matchups, but again, only if you play out that kind of HOU type script. w/o kincaid last week, 8 different WRs/TEs had targets, and none hit 17% of the targets ---- Coleman was also missing that game, so with him back, you'd think it should stabilize a touch more. Wk6 might be the closest thing to that scenario, and Coleman had a 23% target share, Shakir/Shavers were at 19%, while those are that I want the most, I don't see myself playing much of Shakir at that price, Shavers is too cheap, and Coleman is priced fine. Knox is fine, but really you are TD hunting with him, as the 2 games w/o Kincaid, he has just 5 total targets (1 TD), and never hit double digit points, not even in that TD game, I'll be underweight.
Mills SZN!, I won't even look at wk9's partial game, but in the 2 games with Mills, Collins has a really good 30% target sahre/11.68 aDOT, and is absolutely a capt. candidate. Schultz has also been really good, he has had a 24% target share, with a good te aDOT of 7.55. Higgins is way to cheap, he surpassed Kirk on the depth chart, and has the best aDOT with mills at 14, he'd be the only other pass catching option to consider, as Hutchinson/Kirk/Noel are fighting for WR3, and none have a target share of 9% even. Marks is averaging 73% snaps, 19 opps (2 targets/g) with Mills, those are fine numbers, and add that with a matchup against this BUF run D, and you can see success. My fear is the low target volume, and what the shakedown will be in a game they are trailing, maybe Chubb does play a touch more in those scenarios now, and 2 targets/g with the high exposure he will have, I can see a reason to be underweight the field and hope he fails, not sure what I'll be doing here.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
PIT@CHI
Steelers have a good P/RB matchup.
Bears have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Caleb has a pressure rate situation. Swift~ has a great rush potential.
Rudolph? has a bad pressure rate situation.
Steelers TTR is 13th.
Bears TTR is 8th (good).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is 8th.
- Some wait and see measures here as we are unsure of rodgers/warren. If Warren is in, he is way to expensive in the 6K range for a guy that doesn't get 20 opps, no ty. If he is out, I will have a handful of Gainwell, especially if rodgers is out too (which I'll get too). In wk4 without Warren, Gainwell had 25 opps (6 targets), that is alpha status imo. Calvin Austin over the L4 weeks (since returning) has just a 16% target share/7.5 aDOT on a lower passing volume team, I don't really want that, but if the script hands itself over to higher pass volume, I can see where his 3K price range can hit value. Metcalf is the guy we want, he is the #1 here, is getting ridiculously cheap, and I will be even more into him (and gainwell) if Rodgers is out ---- in a postive RUSH script in the 2nd half of last week, Rudolph still threw the ball to targtes 15 times and 5 (33%) went to gainwell, and 5 (33%) went to Metcalf, I will have some part of that. I'll also note, Darnell Washington in 4 of L6 weeks has had atleast 5 targets, he is close to min price, and I can see him as a salary saver.
There were fears of Monangai eating into Swifts production after he tore up CIN run D, but Swifts last 2 games he has avg'd 21.5 opps (21 and 22), avg'd 94 yards too, I obviously don't like the 1 target last week, but he had 8 in the one prior, so I think you are fun to leave him on your list while he sits in 5K range, and the other factor is everyone will be on this games passing attack (rightfully so). Caleb has been so range-y this year, but his higher end scoring game vs poor pass D's (DAL/WAS/NYG/CIN/MIN), so why can't he do it vs PIT? While I think you can dart throw any pass catcher not named Odunze, I don't know how much of them I really want unless doing a bigger game stack. In the L2 (which includes the return of Swift/Kmet/Burden), no pass catcher finished above a 13% target share except Odunze. He is who I want, as he had a 25% target share, and a big time 18 aDOT.
SEA@TEN
Seahawks have a great P/RB matchup.
Titans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Darnold has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Walker~ has a good rush potential.
Ward has a bad pass potential. Pollard~ has a bad rush potential.
Seahawks TTR is T-4th (great).
Titans TTR is 22nd (bad/last)
Pace of play is T-9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-8th (meh).
- There is reason to like this offense, it is typically concentrated, and Darnold is throwing it deep. JSN is elite, on the season he has a 37% target share/12.45 aDOT, that is amazing, and the number hasn't drastically fallen off with the acquisition of Shaheed. My fear is they are projected a blowout win, and in weeks 9/10, he had just 7.5 targets/g, when looking at those 2 games though, he still managed 20.3/25 fps, which look great, but at 9K, he isn't even 3x'ing, and barely over 2x'ing, if he doesn't get the early TD/yardage, and the game gets out of hand, he can absolutely dud you. Now if you think TEN can get some fluke-y TDs (like special teams/defensive/broken play) to keep SEA's pace going, then he can be a slam dunk, I say this to have caution, and I'll likely be underweight, but I will build atleast 1 lineup with that scenario. This backfield is cheap, but it is also a headache. Walker did get to 19 opps last week, but his 3 targets were tied for the most since week 1..... and Charb has been stealing most of the goalline work. I do think in tourneys, if you project (like vegas does) a blowout win, Charb could be interesting in the 4K range, as he can easily 3x+ this with a TD or 2. Barner is comign off an 11 target game, and he is cheap, but I think everyone sees his $ value and could clikc his name, but one game prior he had a 0 target game ---- this is most likely going to be a blowout, like 2 weeks ago, then a close contested game like last week. Oh last note, assuming Horton is out, if you do want to fade JSN but want this game, you could get some leverage with Shaeheed (maybe Kupp), He probably won't get scripted out, and we know he can hit the HR ball.
These 2 backs combine for about 20 opps, we really don't want either until the other is out. The current #1/2 WRs on this team are priced at 4/3.6K, that's cheap, and obviously can see atleast one paying off their salary. Wks 7-9 when ridley got hurt and was out, Dike and Jefferson had 17/18% target share, with 8.5/11.1 aDOTs, and with Ayomanor out, and possible Okonwko, that could open up 21 to 31% more targets as well. I don't see how atleast one of them doesn't get to 8+ targets in this matchup, and I will one-off one of them here and there. Only other thing I'll say is Ward 3x'd+ this salary last week with just 1 total TD, 1 turnover, and under 200 passing yards.... I think in tourneys you can take a stab if you want to stack with Dike or Jefferson.
MIN@GBP
Vikings have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Packers have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
McCarthy has a bad pass potential. Jones~ has a bad rush potential.
Love has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential.
Vikings TTR is 19th (meh).
Packers TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is T-8th (meh).
- Packer games frustrate me to know end, maybe because I am waiting for a love game as he is cheap especially when stacking with his WRs, but everytime I do, I feel like possessions get drawnnnn out, and are limited, and then Jacobs runs it in or no 4th down conversion --- whatever /endrant. Having said all that, is McCarthy lead Vikes the team to push the pace on them? Maybe? In McCarthy's last 3 weeks, he actually has given his WRs a nice aDOT to succeed, and it has been kind of concentrated. JJ/Addison make up 54%+ of his total targets (31%/24%), and they've had aDOTs of 11.8/16.7, both seem fine at their respective prices, but I really am only playing this game in a bigger game stack, and probably not one-offing any pass catcher. Hockenson is getting very cheap, and just saw a spike of 6 targets last week, but still only has a 11.5% target share, you can probably do better here. Jones has really shown to be the starter these L2 weeks, they were in mostly neutral scripts, but this one could play that way too, and in those 2 games he had 18.5 opps/g, hitting 6 targets in each. That is a pretty safe floor for someone in the 5K range.
I've made note of my frustration with the packers above, and I will really only play these guys in a big game stack... the problem is right now 4 of their 5 healthy WRs are Q, and so is Mr. Bellcow Jacobs..... If Jacobs is out, obviously Wilson is a value play. The L2 with Kraft on IR, Watson has had a big aDOT of 22, with a good enough 17% target share, 4.6K I guess seems expensive, but his expectations only rise if any of these others WRs miss time, and he is also the only WR with a RZ target(s) in these 2 games, He'd be the one I'd most likely ne=off. Doubs for PPR leads the team with a 22.5% target share, the rest are dart throws.
NYG@DET
Giants have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lions have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Winston? has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Goff has a good pressure rate situation. Gibbs~ has a great rush potential.
Giants TTR is T-16th.
Lions TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is T-1st (great).
- Similar to Ward above, Winston is so cheap, even last week with 1 total TD, and 2 total turnovers, he still 3x'd+ this salary with just 201 yards of passing, I think he is viable in tourneys. This backfield looks to be in a 5050 split, but they still averaged 20 opps each (23 for tracy, 6 targets, and 17 for singletary, 1 target) --- I know they probably wanted to keep it out of Winstons hands, but the Lions are a bit more explosive on offense than the packers, and idk if they're going to be able to run it 30+ times. If you think Tracy maintains that PPR floor, then he could be considered in the 5K range, but I won't have him, if you think Singletary gets 15+ touches again, he can be considered in the 4k range, but I won't have him. We did not have Slayton last week, but I think that hurts Hodgins/Hyatt more than Wandale. Last week, Wandale had a 31% target share, with a 7.9 aDOT, he's priced at his season high of 5.5K, but he can easily see double digit targets and can be considered. I would have been all about Hodgins if Slayton was out, but he's back, and I don't mind taking a stab on him if you don't like Wandale. Passing elsewhere.
I don't think DET will have the passing volume they did last week, but either way, in the first game without LaPorta, they ran a lot less 2 TE sets, ASB/Jam Williams were practically every down WRs, and both Teslaa and Raymond saw an increase in playing time. While Raymond had 0 targets, he still did play 64% of snaps, and there's a chance TeSlaa misses time, Raymond is the stone min and should be considered as one of the top punt/salary saving options. Aside from him, comes Brock Wright, he had a 19.5% target share, while his aDOT stunk (under 1.0), we don't mind that for PPR formats, especially when you are just 3K as well. ASB had alpha numbers with a 33% target share/12.25 aDOT, but he is priced as an alpha, so up to you how you want to attack it. Jame-o feels cheap in the 5K range, his stats were fine, 19.5%/10.7 --- I pretty much have no issues, and think there is tons of ways to attack with this offense in tourneys. While I am most fearful of Gibbs, as blowout wins can see a reduction of snaps, but he's kind of poopoo'd that later in the season, and we know he has slate breaking upside. If you want to get cute with montgom, I guess there are scenarios where he can easily go 70+ 1+, with 1 catch, and he 3x+'s this salary, but there's also to many FP duds for me to want to consider him.
NEP@CIN
Pats have a great P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Maye has a great pass potential.
Flacco has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Pats TTR is 2nd (great)
Bengals TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is T-3rd. O/U Rank is T-1st (great).
- Mayes in a nice matchup, but he is very expensive now, and hasn't 3x'd this salary once in the L3 he has played. Having said that, this is the nicest matchup to date, and maybe CIN can keep NEP's pace up. Stevenson practiced fully and while I can see coaches returning to the norm and using him more than they should, I really hope that him starting lowers Hendersons ownership, because I think I will take a shot that he is still predominantly the guy, and with his explosive playmaking, we could get a very leveraged play --- there's risk!... I like Diggs, I don't feel like he is that expensive, but with the return of Boutte, and the bump in production shown by both Williams/Hollins, and a guy named Douglas on the team that gets some usage, I think there is a lot of risk I don't want to be tied up in, and we are paying for no boutte pricing, I think I'll pass/be underweight the receiving options.
We get atleast 1 more week of Flacco! In the L2 games without Perine, Chase Brown saw his snaps go back to bellcow, as he avg'd 96%/82% snaps, both by far his season highest, and in those 2 games he's averaged 25.5 opps (11 targets/g, never fewer than 8), I know its the NEP run d, but this kind of volume, and PPR floor, should have him priced on the north side of 7K, and he is just over 6K at 6.2, if the matchup lowers his exposure, hammer him.... He almost hit 20 FPs in both games with no TDs at all, 3x'ing without a TD is impressive, and with 1, he slate breaks -- keep in mind perine is still doubtful, and now no chase.... We don't have a sample of Flacco without Chase, but in his 5 starts with him, he has had a big time 35.5% target share, this should disperse down to all parties, while Higgins could be considered a no brainer, Iosivas/Fant/Gesicki are all soooo cheap, and can be considered for punt/salary saving options.
NYJ@BAL
Jets have a good P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Fields has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Jets TTR is 21st (bad).
Ravens TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is 7th.
- Fields at 4.8K is insane --- the only issue is possible benching, but the guy can 4x+ this salary in his sleep, and his pairing options minus Hall makes it such a cheap/value screaming stack. In AD Mitchells first game with NYJ, he played just 49% of snaps but he had a 23% target share, and a big time 17.3 aDOT --- I'll assume he only gets more familiar with the playbook, and he is just priced above the min at 3.2K, another top salary saving/punt option. Isaiah Williams played the most amont all WRs if you want to be contrarian in tourneys, but idk if I go there. In Halls last 4 full starts with Fields he has seen his targets drop, avg'ing just 1.5 per game ---- Maybe Fields is going back to his roots and instead of checking down, he is trying to run first, aka I like other options in this game better. EDIT I see Taylor is starter, need to revisit this
EDIT - In Taylors week 3 start (feels like it was more than 1 game, guess not), he zero'd in on his WR1 in wilson, who had a 37% target share, if we think he does that with AD I guess we like him just as much as above. The RBs combined for 8 targets in that game, a bump for Hall.
Lamar is back, and it brought Henry kind of back as well, he has avg'd 21 opps/g with Lamar back, 2 targets/g, which don't feel great when your back is priced at 7.6K --- we know he doesn't have a good PPR floor, but the run game feels open for him, you know the script will be good for him, and 100+ 1+ still gives you a 3x with nothing through the air, and no multi TDs --- I think he's viable. Look I like Flowers, I hope he succeeds for my year long leagues, but the L3 with lamar, he is hovering around just 20% of targets, I want him to prove it to me first before I back in in tourneys over 6K. Hopkins however looks like a possible sleeper/salary saving punt too. With Bateman out, he saw 69% of snaps, his prior high this season didn't even crack 40%, and in that game he had 16% target share/15.25 aDOT --- he is almost min priced and can be kept in your player pool imo. Andrews/Likely you can dart throw/use in stacks if you want, both are relatively inexpensive with the TD equity/bit higher floors they have this week.
IND@KCC
Colts have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chiefs have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jones has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Taylor has a great rush potential.
Mahomes has a great pressure rate situation. Hunt? has a great rush potential.
Colts TTR is T-9th (good).
Chiefs TTR is T-4th (great).
Pace of play is T-9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-1st (great).
- Taylor is up to 10K!, that is CMC prime era status, and when you look at the box score, he has 3x'd+ this big time salary in 60% of his games --- 31.6 was his lowest. Nobody has his ceiling, and you got to make a decision for yourself if you want to fade it and hope he stays under 20, or pay it and hope he scores over 30. One way to gain leverage is to hope for a pass script (which is the leaned projection), and that the TDs funnel through the air, aka play the passing options over him. Downs has really become 4th rung at best in this offense and I'd pass. Over the last 3 weeks, Pittman has a 22.5% target share/8.8 aDOT, I think he is fine if you want to one-off, but I'll be underweight, because the metrics don't excite me, and Pierce is sitting 1K cheap, and has been much better of late, with a 24.5% target share/19.24 aDOT, which have only been avg'ing/trending upwards, he is who I'll have most of. Warren is a safe play, but he is to expensive when you have guys like Bowers/McBride above him, and Ferguson/Kelce below him.
I think I can't fully avoid playing rice, but he is actually very expensive while having a 25% target share, and a 5 aDOT, for context, he is priced around ASB/Lamb, and JJ/Higgins on each side of him --- I would want him because the matchup is nice, there is a path to a positive pass script, and because of the names around him he could be very low owned, but again, I didn't want to play him going into this weekend, so idk which way I'll go yet. I think Worthy arguably grades out better than him at his price point, he has had a 17% target share/12.2 aDOT, and comes in with a Q tag which imo will keep his ownership very low. Kelce is fine, we know he has TD equity, and a safe PPR floor, I just see myself paying up, or going cheap. I have to mention Hunt, he is just 5.1K, but in the 2 weeks without Pacheco he is playing 80%~ of snaps, they use him in the RZ, my gripe is despite the playing time, he is only avg'ing 14 opps (2 targets/g), and only 2.5x'd this salary with a TD in each game (a TD at that salary is more than 1x'ing alone), but maybe that shouldn't be a gripe, maybe we should see that as being his absolute floor type of game.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
JAC@ARI
Jags have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Cards have a meh P/RB matchup.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation. Etienne~ has a great rush potential.
Benson? has a bad rush potential.
Jags TTR is 7th (good).
Cards TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- I say it every week, and it isn't a sexy play, but ETN over his L3 has just been reliable, and he is still in the 5K range. He hasn't seen 60% of snaps, but over his L3 he's avg'g 22.67 opps/g, never fewer than 20, and 3.67 targets/g. Another week w/o Hunter/Thomas. We obviously like Parker in these scenarios from the past, but I actually like Meyers the most --- he has the same target share as parker, I'd only assume he is going to get more and more playing time, he has a bigger aDOT than parker at 11.33 (to 6.33), and he's cheaper. The only other guy I'd consider is strange if active.
I know Benson, and now Demercado are out, but I think this is probably still a split backfield with Bam/Carter, they both do get targets, and both are priced below 5K, so value is there, but I can't do it, and think there are better options anyway here. Last week with no MHJ, Wilson had a huge 32% target share/13.33 aDOT, those are alpha numbers and he is only 4.8K, you can get cute with Dortch/Weaver, but I am not... give me wilson all day. McBride hs a stud, in 5 games with Brissett he has hit double digit targets in 4 of them (9 in the 5th one), and he has a MASSIVE 16 total RZ targets in those 5 games, scoring ATLEAST 1 TD in each, you just don't get that kind of production/consistency at this position this year than his, I'm most likely clicking him, or punting to 2.5-3.2K range.
CLV@LVR
Browns have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Raiders have a bad P/RB matchup.
Sanders? has a pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Judkins has a meh rush potential.
Geno has a bad pass potential. Jeanty has a bad rush potential.
Browns TTR is 20th (bad).
Raiders TTR is T-16th.
Pace of play is T-3rd. O/U Rank is 10th (bad/last).
- Sanders is just 4K... he is playing the raiders, even 150 passing, 40 rushing, 1 total TD, and he 3.5/4x's this salary, I have a weird inkling to go overboard here because of the unknown, but even a terrible game, it can't really go wrong. It is a small sample size, but Jeudy had a 26% target share in 1 half with sanders (4 targets) and would be my #1 stacking option, Fannin would be #2 (20% target share) but idk if I want to tie up my TE spot with that. I think Judkins is fairly priced, but he also hasn't 2x'd this in 4 of last 5 games, but 20+ opps is 20+ opps, and he is only 6K. I probably won't have much as I am being idiotic with being overweight sanders.
Jeanty is starting to get fairly cheap too, I hate the matchup though, and while he's shown a nice PPR floor recently, there's a realistic chance this game plays closer than most of their games, in addition to Mostert eating a touch into his snaps, and it looks less appealing. In the 2 games w/o meyers, bowers has a 23% target share, and a good te aDOT of 9, but he is very expensive, and McBride just has a way better range, but if mass entering I would use him as leverage in a couple lineups, as he has slate breaking upside.. Mayer is interesting at 3K, he's playing a lot, is close to min price, and has a 12.5% target share (avg. 4/g), even a 3-30 line doesn't bother you. I'm off lockett, but if you wanted to one-off tucker, you could, he plays almost every snap, and could see 8+ targets (he has most RZ targets post Meyers departure). Either way, at best you really only want to just one-off this team, but I'll do some mini game stacks since I'll have sanders.
PHI@DAL
Eagles have a great P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Hurts has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Barkley has a good rush potential.
Dak has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Javonte has a meh rush potential.
Eagles TTR is 6th (good).
Cowboys TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- I like Barkley, they seem to be feeding him more over his L3 (avg'ing 24 opps (3 targets/g) highest straight 3 game avg of his year), and we know he has slate breaking upside, despite showing it just once this year, my other problem is the passing offense is sooo cheap, and is typically concentrated, so I would solely use him as leverage where mass entering off the popular passing options. Since Browns return/post bye, the big 3 (brown/smith/goedert) make up almost 75% of all of hurts targets. 28%/24%/22%, and 11.5/14.67/8.6 aDOTs, imo you can interchange smith and brown, as they have similar metrics and are similarly priced, but I prefer brown. Goedert is probably the only midrange TE I don't mind (as of now) as the 22% target share is one of the best for a TE, and the 8.6 aDOT is good.
I don't hate Javonte, he still is the bellcow in terms of snaps, but he has seen his PPR floor diminish over the L3 games, 2 of which were passing scripts, and prior to last week he had gone 5 straight games at 20 or less opps, I don't love it. Since Lambs return, him and Pickens make up 55%+ of Daks targets, and they are very similar in metrics, 28.5%/27%, and 11/11.6 aDOTs, Pickens is a touch cheaper, but I will mention Lamb outshines him in RZ targets, so like Brown/Smith above, I think you can go either direction, I lean lamb. You can absolutely TD hunt with Ferguson, I mentioned it last monday night and it hit, but he has seen his aDOT and targets plummet with Lambs return, and he isn't cheap, even with a TD and he barely gets to value, I don't think we risk it here, pass.
ATL@NOS
Falcons have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Saints have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Cousins has a good pressure rate situation. Bijan has a meh rush potential.
Shough has a bad pressure rate situation. Kamara~ has a meh rush potential.
Falcons TTR is 18th (meh).
Saints TTR is 15th.
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- Similar to Sanders, Cousins is 4.4K, it's the saints, the pace is good, while he doesn't have the rushing floor Sanders may have, even 200 passing yards and 1 TD almost 3x's this salary, would it be unreasonable to picture a 250+, 2+ scenario? I know it is not likely, but still capable imo --- I won't have as much of him of course, but I get it if you wanted to go here. We somehow have a sample of cousins starting this year without london, like this week, in that game, Sills and Mooney led in snaps at WR (90%+ each), but only combined for a 23% target share (neither over 13). While I think you can consider them, Hodge was the man who led in metrics, as he had a 27% target share with a 13.1 aDOT --- even if he gets 17-18% of the targets, he screams value at the min price. I hate where he is priced, but I want to mention Pitts, while his aDOT of 4.3 wasn't great, but the 30% target share is one of his season highs, and on PPR formats we take that. I know ATL got blown out, but it was Bijans worst game of his year, and that was vs the MIA pourous run D, idk if we want to pay a premium with this much uncertainty, do you think he gets to 26+ FPs, I'm not so sure.
Kamara is quietly coming off his best opps. game since week 2, hitting 25 total (3 targets).... any RB in the 5K range getting 20+ with some targets is worth a mention, now throw in it'll be a competitive game and he becomes more considerable. We have 2 games of Shough, but one was with Shaheed, who is gone, and both were with Cooks, who is now out --- they make up 24% of Shoughs targets, aka, we rise all ships.... even without that, Olave has a 24% target share/15.9 aDOT, even higher in the game without shaheed (30.7%/17.6 aDOT), 8 targets averaging 17 yards in depth can create big upside, and should be considered. If you need a salary saver/punt play, Vele is close to min price, played 80%+ snaps last week (even with cooks in for most of the game), he could be an option for that. Johnson is fine, but I prefer other cheaper options, passing.
PIT@CHI
Steelers have a good P/RB matchup.
Bears have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Caleb has a pressure rate situation. Swift~ has a great rush potential.
Rudolph? has a bad pressure rate situation.
Steelers TTR is 13th.
Bears TTR is 8th (good).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is 8th.
- Some wait and see measures here as we are unsure of rodgers/warren. If Warren is in, he is way to expensive in the 6K range for a guy that doesn't get 20 opps, no ty. If he is out, I will have a handful of Gainwell, especially if rodgers is out too (which I'll get too). In wk4 without Warren, Gainwell had 25 opps (6 targets), that is alpha status imo. Calvin Austin over the L4 weeks (since returning) has just a 16% target share/7.5 aDOT on a lower passing volume team, I don't really want that, but if the script hands itself over to higher pass volume, I can see where his 3K price range can hit value. Metcalf is the guy we want, he is the #1 here, is getting ridiculously cheap, and I will be even more into him (and gainwell) if Rodgers is out ---- in a postive RUSH script in the 2nd half of last week, Rudolph still threw the ball to targtes 15 times and 5 (33%) went to gainwell, and 5 (33%) went to Metcalf, I will have some part of that. I'll also note, Darnell Washington in 4 of L6 weeks has had atleast 5 targets, he is close to min price, and I can see him as a salary saver.
There were fears of Monangai eating into Swifts production after he tore up CIN run D, but Swifts last 2 games he has avg'd 21.5 opps (21 and 22), avg'd 94 yards too, I obviously don't like the 1 target last week, but he had 8 in the one prior, so I think you are fun to leave him on your list while he sits in 5K range, and the other factor is everyone will be on this games passing attack (rightfully so). Caleb has been so range-y this year, but his higher end scoring game vs poor pass D's (DAL/WAS/NYG/CIN/MIN), so why can't he do it vs PIT? While I think you can dart throw any pass catcher not named Odunze, I don't know how much of them I really want unless doing a bigger game stack. In the L2 (which includes the return of Swift/Kmet/Burden), no pass catcher finished above a 13% target share except Odunze. He is who I want, as he had a 25% target share, and a big time 18 aDOT.
SEA@TEN
Seahawks have a great P/RB matchup.
Titans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Darnold has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Walker~ has a good rush potential.
Ward has a bad pass potential. Pollard~ has a bad rush potential.
Seahawks TTR is T-4th (great).
Titans TTR is 22nd (bad/last)
Pace of play is T-9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-8th (meh).
- There is reason to like this offense, it is typically concentrated, and Darnold is throwing it deep. JSN is elite, on the season he has a 37% target share/12.45 aDOT, that is amazing, and the number hasn't drastically fallen off with the acquisition of Shaheed. My fear is they are projected a blowout win, and in weeks 9/10, he had just 7.5 targets/g, when looking at those 2 games though, he still managed 20.3/25 fps, which look great, but at 9K, he isn't even 3x'ing, and barely over 2x'ing, if he doesn't get the early TD/yardage, and the game gets out of hand, he can absolutely dud you. Now if you think TEN can get some fluke-y TDs (like special teams/defensive/broken play) to keep SEA's pace going, then he can be a slam dunk, I say this to have caution, and I'll likely be underweight, but I will build atleast 1 lineup with that scenario. This backfield is cheap, but it is also a headache. Walker did get to 19 opps last week, but his 3 targets were tied for the most since week 1..... and Charb has been stealing most of the goalline work. I do think in tourneys, if you project (like vegas does) a blowout win, Charb could be interesting in the 4K range, as he can easily 3x+ this with a TD or 2. Barner is comign off an 11 target game, and he is cheap, but I think everyone sees his $ value and could clikc his name, but one game prior he had a 0 target game ---- this is most likely going to be a blowout, like 2 weeks ago, then a close contested game like last week. Oh last note, assuming Horton is out, if you do want to fade JSN but want this game, you could get some leverage with Shaeheed (maybe Kupp), He probably won't get scripted out, and we know he can hit the HR ball.
These 2 backs combine for about 20 opps, we really don't want either until the other is out. The current #1/2 WRs on this team are priced at 4/3.6K, that's cheap, and obviously can see atleast one paying off their salary. Wks 7-9 when ridley got hurt and was out, Dike and Jefferson had 17/18% target share, with 8.5/11.1 aDOTs, and with Ayomanor out, and possible Okonwko, that could open up 21 to 31% more targets as well. I don't see how atleast one of them doesn't get to 8+ targets in this matchup, and I will one-off one of them here and there. Only other thing I'll say is Ward 3x'd+ this salary last week with just 1 total TD, 1 turnover, and under 200 passing yards.... I think in tourneys you can take a stab if you want to stack with Dike or Jefferson.
MIN@GBP
Vikings have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Packers have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
McCarthy has a bad pass potential. Jones~ has a bad rush potential.
Love has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential.
Vikings TTR is 19th (meh).
Packers TTR is T-9th (good).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is T-8th (meh).
- Packer games frustrate me to know end, maybe because I am waiting for a love game as he is cheap especially when stacking with his WRs, but everytime I do, I feel like possessions get drawnnnn out, and are limited, and then Jacobs runs it in or no 4th down conversion --- whatever /endrant. Having said all that, is McCarthy lead Vikes the team to push the pace on them? Maybe? In McCarthy's last 3 weeks, he actually has given his WRs a nice aDOT to succeed, and it has been kind of concentrated. JJ/Addison make up 54%+ of his total targets (31%/24%), and they've had aDOTs of 11.8/16.7, both seem fine at their respective prices, but I really am only playing this game in a bigger game stack, and probably not one-offing any pass catcher. Hockenson is getting very cheap, and just saw a spike of 6 targets last week, but still only has a 11.5% target share, you can probably do better here. Jones has really shown to be the starter these L2 weeks, they were in mostly neutral scripts, but this one could play that way too, and in those 2 games he had 18.5 opps/g, hitting 6 targets in each. That is a pretty safe floor for someone in the 5K range.
I've made note of my frustration with the packers above, and I will really only play these guys in a big game stack... the problem is right now 4 of their 5 healthy WRs are Q, and so is Mr. Bellcow Jacobs..... If Jacobs is out, obviously Wilson is a value play. The L2 with Kraft on IR, Watson has had a big aDOT of 22, with a good enough 17% target share, 4.6K I guess seems expensive, but his expectations only rise if any of these others WRs miss time, and he is also the only WR with a RZ target(s) in these 2 games, He'd be the one I'd most likely ne=off. Doubs for PPR leads the team with a 22.5% target share, the rest are dart throws.
NYG@DET
Giants have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lions have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Winston? has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Goff has a good pressure rate situation. Gibbs~ has a great rush potential.
Giants TTR is T-16th.
Lions TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is T-1st (great).
- Similar to Ward above, Winston is so cheap, even last week with 1 total TD, and 2 total turnovers, he still 3x'd+ this salary with just 201 yards of passing, I think he is viable in tourneys. This backfield looks to be in a 5050 split, but they still averaged 20 opps each (23 for tracy, 6 targets, and 17 for singletary, 1 target) --- I know they probably wanted to keep it out of Winstons hands, but the Lions are a bit more explosive on offense than the packers, and idk if they're going to be able to run it 30+ times. If you think Tracy maintains that PPR floor, then he could be considered in the 5K range, but I won't have him, if you think Singletary gets 15+ touches again, he can be considered in the 4k range, but I won't have him. We did not have Slayton last week, but I think that hurts Hodgins/Hyatt more than Wandale. Last week, Wandale had a 31% target share, with a 7.9 aDOT, he's priced at his season high of 5.5K, but he can easily see double digit targets and can be considered. I would have been all about Hodgins if Slayton was out, but he's back, and I don't mind taking a stab on him if you don't like Wandale. Passing elsewhere.
I don't think DET will have the passing volume they did last week, but either way, in the first game without LaPorta, they ran a lot less 2 TE sets, ASB/Jam Williams were practically every down WRs, and both Teslaa and Raymond saw an increase in playing time. While Raymond had 0 targets, he still did play 64% of snaps, and there's a chance TeSlaa misses time, Raymond is the stone min and should be considered as one of the top punt/salary saving options. Aside from him, comes Brock Wright, he had a 19.5% target share, while his aDOT stunk (under 1.0), we don't mind that for PPR formats, especially when you are just 3K as well. ASB had alpha numbers with a 33% target share/12.25 aDOT, but he is priced as an alpha, so up to you how you want to attack it. Jame-o feels cheap in the 5K range, his stats were fine, 19.5%/10.7 --- I pretty much have no issues, and think there is tons of ways to attack with this offense in tourneys. While I am most fearful of Gibbs, as blowout wins can see a reduction of snaps, but he's kind of poopoo'd that later in the season, and we know he has slate breaking upside. If you want to get cute with montgom, I guess there are scenarios where he can easily go 70+ 1+, with 1 catch, and he 3x+'s this salary, but there's also to many FP duds for me to want to consider him.
NEP@CIN
Pats have a great P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Maye has a great pass potential.
Flacco has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Pats TTR is 2nd (great)
Bengals TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is T-3rd. O/U Rank is T-1st (great).
- Mayes in a nice matchup, but he is very expensive now, and hasn't 3x'd this salary once in the L3 he has played. Having said that, this is the nicest matchup to date, and maybe CIN can keep NEP's pace up. Stevenson practiced fully and while I can see coaches returning to the norm and using him more than they should, I really hope that him starting lowers Hendersons ownership, because I think I will take a shot that he is still predominantly the guy, and with his explosive playmaking, we could get a very leveraged play --- there's risk!... I like Diggs, I don't feel like he is that expensive, but with the return of Boutte, and the bump in production shown by both Williams/Hollins, and a guy named Douglas on the team that gets some usage, I think there is a lot of risk I don't want to be tied up in, and we are paying for no boutte pricing, I think I'll pass/be underweight the receiving options.
We get atleast 1 more week of Flacco! In the L2 games without Perine, Chase Brown saw his snaps go back to bellcow, as he avg'd 96%/82% snaps, both by far his season highest, and in those 2 games he's averaged 25.5 opps (11 targets/g, never fewer than 8), I know its the NEP run d, but this kind of volume, and PPR floor, should have him priced on the north side of 7K, and he is just over 6K at 6.2, if the matchup lowers his exposure, hammer him.... He almost hit 20 FPs in both games with no TDs at all, 3x'ing without a TD is impressive, and with 1, he slate breaks -- keep in mind perine is still doubtful, and now no chase.... We don't have a sample of Flacco without Chase, but in his 5 starts with him, he has had a big time 35.5% target share, this should disperse down to all parties, while Higgins could be considered a no brainer, Iosivas/Fant/Gesicki are all soooo cheap, and can be considered for punt/salary saving options.
NYJ@BAL
Jets have a good P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Fields has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Jets TTR is 21st (bad).
Ravens TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is 7th.
- Fields at 4.8K is insane --- the only issue is possible benching, but the guy can 4x+ this salary in his sleep, and his pairing options minus Hall makes it such a cheap/value screaming stack. In AD Mitchells first game with NYJ, he played just 49% of snaps but he had a 23% target share, and a big time 17.3 aDOT --- I'll assume he only gets more familiar with the playbook, and he is just priced above the min at 3.2K, another top salary saving/punt option. Isaiah Williams played the most amont all WRs if you want to be contrarian in tourneys, but idk if I go there. In Halls last 4 full starts with Fields he has seen his targets drop, avg'ing just 1.5 per game ---- Maybe Fields is going back to his roots and instead of checking down, he is trying to run first, aka I like other options in this game better. EDIT I see Taylor is starter, need to revisit this
EDIT - In Taylors week 3 start (feels like it was more than 1 game, guess not), he zero'd in on his WR1 in wilson, who had a 37% target share, if we think he does that with AD I guess we like him just as much as above. The RBs combined for 8 targets in that game, a bump for Hall.
Lamar is back, and it brought Henry kind of back as well, he has avg'd 21 opps/g with Lamar back, 2 targets/g, which don't feel great when your back is priced at 7.6K --- we know he doesn't have a good PPR floor, but the run game feels open for him, you know the script will be good for him, and 100+ 1+ still gives you a 3x with nothing through the air, and no multi TDs --- I think he's viable. Look I like Flowers, I hope he succeeds for my year long leagues, but the L3 with lamar, he is hovering around just 20% of targets, I want him to prove it to me first before I back in in tourneys over 6K. Hopkins however looks like a possible sleeper/salary saving punt too. With Bateman out, he saw 69% of snaps, his prior high this season didn't even crack 40%, and in that game he had 16% target share/15.25 aDOT --- he is almost min priced and can be kept in your player pool imo. Andrews/Likely you can dart throw/use in stacks if you want, both are relatively inexpensive with the TD equity/bit higher floors they have this week.
IND@KCC
Colts have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chiefs have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jones has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Taylor has a great rush potential.
Mahomes has a great pressure rate situation. Hunt? has a great rush potential.
Colts TTR is T-9th (good).
Chiefs TTR is T-4th (great).
Pace of play is T-9th (meh). O/U Rank is T-1st (great).
- Taylor is up to 10K!, that is CMC prime era status, and when you look at the box score, he has 3x'd+ this big time salary in 60% of his games --- 31.6 was his lowest. Nobody has his ceiling, and you got to make a decision for yourself if you want to fade it and hope he stays under 20, or pay it and hope he scores over 30. One way to gain leverage is to hope for a pass script (which is the leaned projection), and that the TDs funnel through the air, aka play the passing options over him. Downs has really become 4th rung at best in this offense and I'd pass. Over the last 3 weeks, Pittman has a 22.5% target share/8.8 aDOT, I think he is fine if you want to one-off, but I'll be underweight, because the metrics don't excite me, and Pierce is sitting 1K cheap, and has been much better of late, with a 24.5% target share/19.24 aDOT, which have only been avg'ing/trending upwards, he is who I'll have most of. Warren is a safe play, but he is to expensive when you have guys like Bowers/McBride above him, and Ferguson/Kelce below him.
I think I can't fully avoid playing rice, but he is actually very expensive while having a 25% target share, and a 5 aDOT, for context, he is priced around ASB/Lamb, and JJ/Higgins on each side of him --- I would want him because the matchup is nice, there is a path to a positive pass script, and because of the names around him he could be very low owned, but again, I didn't want to play him going into this weekend, so idk which way I'll go yet. I think Worthy arguably grades out better than him at his price point, he has had a 17% target share/12.2 aDOT, and comes in with a Q tag which imo will keep his ownership very low. Kelce is fine, we know he has TD equity, and a safe PPR floor, I just see myself paying up, or going cheap. I have to mention Hunt, he is just 5.1K, but in the 2 weeks without Pacheco he is playing 80%~ of snaps, they use him in the RZ, my gripe is despite the playing time, he is only avg'ing 14 opps (2 targets/g), and only 2.5x'd this salary with a TD in each game (a TD at that salary is more than 1x'ing alone), but maybe that shouldn't be a gripe, maybe we should see that as being his absolute floor type of game.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
JAC@ARI
Jags have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Cards have a meh P/RB matchup.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation. Etienne~ has a great rush potential.
Benson? has a bad rush potential.
Jags TTR is 7th (good).
Cards TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- I say it every week, and it isn't a sexy play, but ETN over his L3 has just been reliable, and he is still in the 5K range. He hasn't seen 60% of snaps, but over his L3 he's avg'g 22.67 opps/g, never fewer than 20, and 3.67 targets/g. Another week w/o Hunter/Thomas. We obviously like Parker in these scenarios from the past, but I actually like Meyers the most --- he has the same target share as parker, I'd only assume he is going to get more and more playing time, he has a bigger aDOT than parker at 11.33 (to 6.33), and he's cheaper. The only other guy I'd consider is strange if active.
I know Benson, and now Demercado are out, but I think this is probably still a split backfield with Bam/Carter, they both do get targets, and both are priced below 5K, so value is there, but I can't do it, and think there are better options anyway here. Last week with no MHJ, Wilson had a huge 32% target share/13.33 aDOT, those are alpha numbers and he is only 4.8K, you can get cute with Dortch/Weaver, but I am not... give me wilson all day. McBride hs a stud, in 5 games with Brissett he has hit double digit targets in 4 of them (9 in the 5th one), and he has a MASSIVE 16 total RZ targets in those 5 games, scoring ATLEAST 1 TD in each, you just don't get that kind of production/consistency at this position this year than his, I'm most likely clicking him, or punting to 2.5-3.2K range.
CLV@LVR
Browns have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Raiders have a bad P/RB matchup.
Sanders? has a pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Judkins has a meh rush potential.
Geno has a bad pass potential. Jeanty has a bad rush potential.
Browns TTR is 20th (bad).
Raiders TTR is T-16th.
Pace of play is T-3rd. O/U Rank is 10th (bad/last).
- Sanders is just 4K... he is playing the raiders, even 150 passing, 40 rushing, 1 total TD, and he 3.5/4x's this salary, I have a weird inkling to go overboard here because of the unknown, but even a terrible game, it can't really go wrong. It is a small sample size, but Jeudy had a 26% target share in 1 half with sanders (4 targets) and would be my #1 stacking option, Fannin would be #2 (20% target share) but idk if I want to tie up my TE spot with that. I think Judkins is fairly priced, but he also hasn't 2x'd this in 4 of last 5 games, but 20+ opps is 20+ opps, and he is only 6K. I probably won't have much as I am being idiotic with being overweight sanders.
Jeanty is starting to get fairly cheap too, I hate the matchup though, and while he's shown a nice PPR floor recently, there's a realistic chance this game plays closer than most of their games, in addition to Mostert eating a touch into his snaps, and it looks less appealing. In the 2 games w/o meyers, bowers has a 23% target share, and a good te aDOT of 9, but he is very expensive, and McBride just has a way better range, but if mass entering I would use him as leverage in a couple lineups, as he has slate breaking upside.. Mayer is interesting at 3K, he's playing a lot, is close to min price, and has a 12.5% target share (avg. 4/g), even a 3-30 line doesn't bother you. I'm off lockett, but if you wanted to one-off tucker, you could, he plays almost every snap, and could see 8+ targets (he has most RZ targets post Meyers departure). Either way, at best you really only want to just one-off this team, but I'll do some mini game stacks since I'll have sanders.
PHI@DAL
Eagles have a great P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Hurts has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Barkley has a good rush potential.
Dak has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Javonte has a meh rush potential.
Eagles TTR is 6th (good).
Cowboys TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- I like Barkley, they seem to be feeding him more over his L3 (avg'ing 24 opps (3 targets/g) highest straight 3 game avg of his year), and we know he has slate breaking upside, despite showing it just once this year, my other problem is the passing offense is sooo cheap, and is typically concentrated, so I would solely use him as leverage where mass entering off the popular passing options. Since Browns return/post bye, the big 3 (brown/smith/goedert) make up almost 75% of all of hurts targets. 28%/24%/22%, and 11.5/14.67/8.6 aDOTs, imo you can interchange smith and brown, as they have similar metrics and are similarly priced, but I prefer brown. Goedert is probably the only midrange TE I don't mind (as of now) as the 22% target share is one of the best for a TE, and the 8.6 aDOT is good.
I don't hate Javonte, he still is the bellcow in terms of snaps, but he has seen his PPR floor diminish over the L3 games, 2 of which were passing scripts, and prior to last week he had gone 5 straight games at 20 or less opps, I don't love it. Since Lambs return, him and Pickens make up 55%+ of Daks targets, and they are very similar in metrics, 28.5%/27%, and 11/11.6 aDOTs, Pickens is a touch cheaper, but I will mention Lamb outshines him in RZ targets, so like Brown/Smith above, I think you can go either direction, I lean lamb. You can absolutely TD hunt with Ferguson, I mentioned it last monday night and it hit, but he has seen his aDOT and targets plummet with Lambs return, and he isn't cheap, even with a TD and he barely gets to value, I don't think we risk it here, pass.
ATL@NOS
Falcons have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Saints have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Cousins has a good pressure rate situation. Bijan has a meh rush potential.
Shough has a bad pressure rate situation. Kamara~ has a meh rush potential.
Falcons TTR is 18th (meh).
Saints TTR is 15th.
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- Similar to Sanders, Cousins is 4.4K, it's the saints, the pace is good, while he doesn't have the rushing floor Sanders may have, even 200 passing yards and 1 TD almost 3x's this salary, would it be unreasonable to picture a 250+, 2+ scenario? I know it is not likely, but still capable imo --- I won't have as much of him of course, but I get it if you wanted to go here. We somehow have a sample of cousins starting this year without london, like this week, in that game, Sills and Mooney led in snaps at WR (90%+ each), but only combined for a 23% target share (neither over 13). While I think you can consider them, Hodge was the man who led in metrics, as he had a 27% target share with a 13.1 aDOT --- even if he gets 17-18% of the targets, he screams value at the min price. I hate where he is priced, but I want to mention Pitts, while his aDOT of 4.3 wasn't great, but the 30% target share is one of his season highs, and on PPR formats we take that. I know ATL got blown out, but it was Bijans worst game of his year, and that was vs the MIA pourous run D, idk if we want to pay a premium with this much uncertainty, do you think he gets to 26+ FPs, I'm not so sure.
Kamara is quietly coming off his best opps. game since week 2, hitting 25 total (3 targets).... any RB in the 5K range getting 20+ with some targets is worth a mention, now throw in it'll be a competitive game and he becomes more considerable. We have 2 games of Shough, but one was with Shaheed, who is gone, and both were with Cooks, who is now out --- they make up 24% of Shoughs targets, aka, we rise all ships.... even without that, Olave has a 24% target share/15.9 aDOT, even higher in the game without shaheed (30.7%/17.6 aDOT), 8 targets averaging 17 yards in depth can create big upside, and should be considered. If you need a salary saver/punt play, Vele is close to min price, played 80%+ snaps last week (even with cooks in for most of the game), he could be an option for that. Johnson is fine, but I prefer other cheaper options, passing.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday Night/Showdown Slate
TBB@LAR
Bucs have a bad P/RB matchup.
Rams have a meh P/RB matchup.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Bucky? has a bad rush potential.
Stafford has a good pass potential.
Pace of play is 8th.
- Notes
TBB@LAR
Bucs have a bad P/RB matchup.
Rams have a meh P/RB matchup.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Bucky? has a bad rush potential.
Stafford has a good pass potential.
Pace of play is 8th.
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
CAR@SFO
Panthers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
49ers have a good P/RB matchup.
Young has a good pass potential. CMC has a meh rush potential.
Purdy has a pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Dowdle has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 2nd.
- Notes
CAR@SFO
Panthers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
49ers have a good P/RB matchup.
Young has a good pass potential. CMC has a meh rush potential.
Purdy has a pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Dowdle has a good rush potential.
Pace of play is 2nd.
- Notes
Last edited:
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thoughts added above for tonights game.
J. Higgins Receptions O2.5 -142 (he is the #2 WR right now, and has had b2b 7 target games, way to low and I sprinkled some on 5+ +375/7+ +1640, just need a positive pass script for that)
J. Higgins Rec Yds O30.5 -110
I may add Shavers, but if Coleman back, and now Davis these, idk how much I like it.
J. Higgins Receptions O2.5 -142 (he is the #2 WR right now, and has had b2b 7 target games, way to low and I sprinkled some on 5+ +375/7+ +1640, just need a positive pass script for that)
J. Higgins Rec Yds O30.5 -110
I may add Shavers, but if Coleman back, and now Davis these, idk how much I like it.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Yea I don’t have any problem w the combo, I don’t play it a lot just cause I don’t like getting taxed the extra yards but since I think both are short individually I’m good with it.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
1 PMs
W. Robinson Receptions O5.5 -103
A. Pierce Receptions O3.5 +113 (avg'g 10 targets in 3 of 4, the 4th was a blowout win vs TEN)
J. Love Pass Yds O233.5 -113 (should see more pass volume, and this eliminates the spreading of the ball)
D. Henry Rush Yds O88.5 -113
A. Mitchell Receptions O2.5 -133 (I like this a lot, may have done 5+ too)
D. Metcalf Receptions O3.5 -130 (like this more with rudolph)
R. Odunze Rec Yds O55.5 -110
T. Henderson Rush Yds O55.5 -110 (I sprinkled some on 100+ +536 too, if he is still the lead back, or the lead outside the 20s even, this value is off
C. Brown Receptions O5.5 +117 (hold your nose but should get).
I like worthy, but avoiding the WRs with a lingering injury for now.
I like SEA props, but the game script scares me.
4 PMs
T. McBride TD -115 (Like wilson props too)
S. Sanders Rush Yds O18.5 -107 (like jeudy props too)
A. Brown Rec Yds O58.5 -113 (goedert O3.5 receptions looks nice too)
I like Bowers, but there's scenarios they play with a lead/slow game down, or where clv just focuses on shutting him down, idk
W. Robinson Receptions O5.5 -103
A. Pierce Receptions O3.5 +113 (avg'g 10 targets in 3 of 4, the 4th was a blowout win vs TEN)
J. Love Pass Yds O233.5 -113 (should see more pass volume, and this eliminates the spreading of the ball)
D. Henry Rush Yds O88.5 -113
A. Mitchell Receptions O2.5 -133 (I like this a lot, may have done 5+ too)
D. Metcalf Receptions O3.5 -130 (like this more with rudolph)
R. Odunze Rec Yds O55.5 -110
T. Henderson Rush Yds O55.5 -110 (I sprinkled some on 100+ +536 too, if he is still the lead back, or the lead outside the 20s even, this value is off
C. Brown Receptions O5.5 +117 (hold your nose but should get).
I like worthy, but avoiding the WRs with a lingering injury for now.
I like SEA props, but the game script scares me.
4 PMs
T. McBride TD -115 (Like wilson props too)
S. Sanders Rush Yds O18.5 -107 (like jeudy props too)
A. Brown Rec Yds O58.5 -113 (goedert O3.5 receptions looks nice too)
I like Bowers, but there's scenarios they play with a lead/slow game down, or where clv just focuses on shutting him down, idk
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Henry longest rush o18.5
Treveyon longest rush o14.5
Amon ra td
Drake maye passing yds o257.5
Gl all
Treveyon longest rush o14.5
Amon ra td
Drake maye passing yds o257.5
Gl all
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Like it! Gl